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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9

Elucidating and predicting the dynamic evolution of water and land systems due to natural and energy-related forcings

Focal Area(s): 3. Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI; & 1. Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization, unsupervised learning (including deep learning), and hardware-related efforts involving AI (e.g., edge computing). Science Challenge: Interactions between water, land, and energy systems are complex and occur on a variety of scales, ranging from local to basinal to regional. Accurately predicting the behavior of ground water and surface water systems for 5-10 years and beyond requires an understanding of the current system and the ability to model both the natural system at scale and human-induced forcings related to energy and other activities. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) combined with modern compilation and integration efforts for U.S. groundwater and surface water systems present potential solutions to bolstering detailed physics-based models of these systems. Big data tied with ML and physics-based modeling can drive breakthroughs in understanding the earth system, but research is often impeded by data access (e.g., privacy issues), quality, formats, gaps, multi-source, multi-scale, integration, and spatiotemporal challenges. Effective integration of real data and simulated (synthetic) data that fill gaps is critical. Overcoming these complex data and model integration challenges will enable a transformational approach to acquiring enhanced understanding of environmental systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterizing spatiotemporal patterns of crop phenology across North America during 2000–2016 using satellite imagery and agricultural survey data

Crop phenology represents an integrative indicator of climate change and plays a vital role in terrestrial carbon dynamics and sustainable agricultural development. However, spatiotemporal variations of crop phenology remain unclear at large scales. This knowledge gap has hindered our ability to realistically quantify the biogeochemical dynamics in agroecosystems, predict future climate, and make informed decisions for climate change mitigation and adaptation. In this study, we improved an EVI-curve-based approach and used it to detect spatiotemporal patterns in cropping intensity and five major phenological stages over North America during 2000–2016 using vegetation index in combination with agricultural survey data and other ancillary maps. Our predicted crop phenological stages showed strong linear relationships with the survey-based datasets, with R(exp 2), RMSEs, and MAEs in the ranges of 0.35 –0.99, three to ten days, and two to eight days, respectively. During the study period, the planting dates were advanced by 0.60 days/year (p < 0.01), and harvesting dates were delayed by 0.78 days/year (p < 0.01) over North America. A minimum temperature increase by 1 °C caused a 4.26-day planting advance (r = −0.50, p < 0. 01) or a 0.66-day harvest delay (r = 0.10, p < 0.01). While, a higher maximum temperature resulted in a planting advance by 4.48 days/°C (r = −0.62, p < 0.01) or a harvest advance by 2.22 days/°C (r = −0.40, p < 0.01). Our analysis illustrated evident spatiotemporal variations in crop phenology in response to climate change and management practices. The derived crop phenological datasets and cropping intensity maps can be used in regional climate assessments and in developing adaptation strategies.

North America↗

Monthly Mean In Situ Surface Flux Observations Paired with Satellite-Derived and Reanalysis-Based Flux Data for the Great Lakes Region, 2001–2020

Surface radiative and turbulent heat fluxes over the Great Lakes strongly influence regional hydrological and meteorological processes, and their accurate representation is critical for numerical weather prediction and coupled atmosphere–lake modeling. However, direct flux observations are spatially sparse across the region, so gridded reanalysis and satellite-derived products are often used for climatological analyses and model evaluation despite differences in their flux representations. This dataset provides processed, quality-controlled, monthly mean surface flux observations from the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN), AmeriFlux, and the National Data Buoy Center, paired with spatiotemporally matched flux estimates from two reanalysis products, the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis dataset (ERA5) and the Modern Era Reanalysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), and two satellite-derived products, the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy Systems Energy Balanced and Filled (CERES-EBAF) and the Cloud, Albedo and Surface Radiation dataset from AVHRR data - Edition 3 (CLARA-A3). The dataset includes sixteen observational stations with variable temporal coverage within 2001–2020. For each station, a CSV file contains monthly time series of available flux variables, including surface downwelling shortwave radiation (SW), surface downwelling longwave radiation (LW), sensible heat (SH) flux, and latent heat flux (LH), alongside matched gridded product values where available. Columns in the CSV file correspond to different variables sourced from each dataset, with column titles structured as "{dataset}_{variable}". Columns with relevant metadata are also provided in each CSV file, including station latitude and longitude, monthly timestamps, and the name of the sourced observational data. These files are structured for direct use in common analysis tools, including Microsoft Excel, Python pandas, and Python matplotlib. This dataset supports climatological analysis of the Great Lakes regional surface energy budget, evaluation of satellite-derived and reanalysis-based flux products, and development or validation of flux representations in numerical weather prediction and coupled atmosphere–lake models.

Great Lakes↗

Rapid retrieval of first-order spatiotemporal distortions for ultrashort laser pulses

High-intensity, ultrashort laser sources are a foundational pillar for High-Energy-Density (HED) physics, and as the repetition-rates of these systems increase, diagnostics must be developed to match their data collection speed. Characterization of any spatiotemporal distortions in the laser pulse is necessary in order to standardize results across facilities. Here, we have previously developed a laser diagnostic called Spatially and Temporally Resolved Intensity and Phase Evaluation Device: Full Information from a Single Hologram, or STRIPED FISH, to measure the full spatiotemporal laser electric field on a single shot. In order to provide rapid feedback, we here adapt the STRIPED FISH retrieval algorithm, which typically has computation times of up to 30 minutes due to the high spatial resolution of the device and its retrieval of the complete four-dimensional pulse field, to distill the key electric field quantities into a handful of scalars for rapid assessment of the pulse's first order distortions. Here, our new, rapid non-iterative retrieval algorithm is validated with simulated and experimental data, and it provides, within seconds, the same first-order information as given by the full analysis. This algorithm is suitable for on-shot assessment of spatiotemporal distortions and can be adapted to assess high repetition-rate laser quality in HED experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Extreme Water Deficit in Brazil Detected from Space

Extreme droughts have caused significant socioeconomic and environmental damage worldwide. In Brazil, ineffective energy development and water management policies have magnified the impacts of recent severe droughts, which include massive agricultural losses, water supply restrictions, and energy rationing. Spaceborne remote sensing data advance our understanding of the spatiotemporal variability of large-scale droughts and enhance the detection and monitoring of extreme water-related events. In this study, data derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission are used to detect and quantify an extended major drought over eastern Brazil and provide estimates of impacted areas and region-specific water deficits. Two structural breakpoint detection methods were applied to time series of GRACE-based terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA), determining when two abrupt changes occurred. One, in particular, defines the beginning of the current drought. Using TWSA, a water loss rate of 26.1 cmyr21 over southeastern Brazil was detected from 2012 to 2015. Based on analysis of Global Land Data Assimilation System(GLDAS) outputs, the extreme drought is mostly related to lower-than-usual precipitation rates, resulting in high soil moisture depletion and lower-than-usual rates of evapotranspiration. A reduction of 2023 of precipitation over an extended period of 3 years is enough to raise serious water scarcity conditions in the country. Correlations between monthly time series of both grid-based TWSA and ground-based water storage measurements at 16 reservoirs located within southeastern Brazil varied from 0.42 to 0.82. Differences are mainly explained by reservoir sizes and proximity to the drought nucleus.

terrestrial↗

Striving to translate shale physics across ten orders of magnitude: What have we learned?

Shales will play an important role in the successful transition of energy from fossil-based resources to renewables in the coming decades. Aside from being a significant source of low-carbon intensity fuels, like natural gas, they also serve as geologic seals of subsurface formations that may be used to isolate nuclear waste, sequester CO 2 , or store intermittent energy (e.g., solar hydrogen). Despite their importance, shales pose significant engineering and environmental challenges due to their nanoporous structure and extreme heterogeneity that spans at least ~10 orders of magnitude in spatial scale. Two challenges inhibit a system-level understanding: (1) the physics of fluid flow and phase behavior in shales are poorly understood due to the dominant molecular interactions between minerals and fluids under confinement, and (2) the apparent lack of scale separation that prevents a reliable (closed) description of the physics at any single scale of observation. In this review, we focus on the latter issue and discuss scale translation, which in its broadest sense is transforming data or simulations from one spatiotemporal scale to another. While effective scale translation is not exclusive to shales, but all geologic porous media, the need for it is especially acute in shales given their high degree of heterogeneity. Classical theories like homogenization, while indispensable, fail when scales are not separated. Other methods, like numerical upscaling, scale-translate in only one direction: small to large, but not the reverse, called downscaling. However, the confluence of advances in three areas are bringing challenging problems such as shales within reach: increased computational power and scalable algorithms; high-resolution imaging and multi-modal data acquisition; and machine learning to process massive amounts of data. While these advances equip geoscientists with a wide array of experimental and computational tools, no individual tool can probe the entire gamut of heterogeneity in shales. Their effective use, therefore, requires an ability to bridge between various data types obtained at different scales. The aim of this review is to present a coherent account of computational and experimental methods that may be used to achieve just that, i.e., to perform scale translation. We provide a broader definition of scale translation, one that transcends classical homogenization and upscaling methods, but is consistent with them and accommodates notions like downscaling and data translation. After a brief introduction to homogenization, we review hybrid methods, numerical upscaling and its recent extensions, multiscale computing, high-resolution imaging, and machine learning. We place particular emphasis on multiscale computing and propose an algorithmic framework to bridge between the pore (micro) and Darcy (macro) scales. Throughout the paper, we draw comparisons between the various methods and highlight their (often hidden) similarities, differences, benefits, and pitfalls. We finally conclude with two case studies on shales that exemplify some of the methods presented.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Statistical Downscaling of Climate Models for Solar Resource Assessment

This study presents the development of statistical models to efficiently downscale future projections of solar irradiance for solar energy applications. A climate data set simulated from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) is selected as input to the statistical models to create high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Our approach builds statistical downscaling models that (1) regrid RCM data (0.22 degree and daily spatiotemporal resolution), (2) correct bias of GHI projections, (3) downscale the future GHI project from daily-scale to hourly-scale, and (4) spatially downscale to generate GHI at 8-km resolution. To calibrate and validate the statistical models, we adapt and use the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Preliminary results show that the statistical downscaling approach downscales future projections of GHI under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with a nBIAS of 3%, nMAE of 34% and nRMSE of 46% estimated against NSRDB for the contiguous United State. This presentation will summarize the implemented methodology and validation results as well as future extension of this research.

climate data↗

Investigating the opioid epidemic across the United States: Associations between county-level characteristics and overdose mortality

The opioid crisis remains a critical public health challenge in the United States. Despite national efforts that reduced opioid prescribing by nearly 44% between 2011 and 2021, opioid overdose deaths more than tripled during the same period. This alarming trend reflects a major shift in the crisis, with illegal opioids now driving the majority of overdose deaths instead of prescription opioids. Although supply-side factors fueling this transition have been widely studied, the structural and community-level conditions that shape overdose mortality are less well understood. To help address this gap, this study has three primary objectives: (1) overcome structural gaps in national data to construct a complete nationwide county-level dataset from 2010 to 2022; (2) using data analysis, identify and investigate spatiotemporal anomalies in overdose mortality; and (3) using two machine-learning models, quantify the importance of thirteen social vulnerability variables in predicting overdose mortality. Our results identify unemployment and limited vehicle access as key county-level predictors of overdose mortality. Higher levels of these vulnerabilities are associated with elevated mortality, whereas lower levels are associated with reduced mortality. These findings highlight factors that may be relevant for public health planning and policy prioritization within the context of the opioid crisis.

Anomaly analysis↗

A Climatology of Dust Deposition in the Upper Colorado River Basin for February-May 1980-2023

This data set is a long-term climatology of the average monthly total dust deposition, wet and dry, for the months of February-May 1980-2023 pulled from the MERRA-2 reanalysis data set over the Upper Colorado River Basin. This data set can be used to study the long-term spatiotemporal patterns of dust deposition, especially on snow. This data set is associated with the preprint article “A multi-decadal climatology of dust-on-snow from wet deposition in the Upper Colorado River Basin”.

dry_dust_deposition↗

How can an ecosystem approach support integrated management of marine renewable energy? An initial assessment from an environmental point of view

With the increasing installation of marine renewable energy (MRE) devices in areas already subject to multiple anthropogenic activities and environmental changes, it is necessary to develop tools and methods for the integrated management of marine ecosystems. The ecosystem approach is a holistic environmental management method that considers all components of an ecosystem. The ecosystem approach has demonstrated utility in the application to various anthropogenic activities and is relevant for consideration within the context of MRE. Indeed, many of the effects observed on marine ecosystems from those other activities are also applicable to MRE development. This review is an initial assessment where we summarize the potential effects of MRE development on marine ecosystems and propose schematic frameworks for applying the ecosystem approach to MRE. We also provide a non-exhaustive list of commonly used models pertinent to the ecosystem approach and associated with several reference studies. An outline of core questions that can currently be answered using available modeling tools central to the ecosystem approach is provided, along with recommendations for the application of this approach to the MRE context. Further, we identify key knowledge gaps and areas that require additional investigation for meaningful application of the ecosystem approach to MRE development. Our recommendations mainly concern the current limitations of applying the ecosystem approach to concrete cases, such as consolidating knowledge of the effects of MRE on the local environment, the need to obtain fine-scale data, considering effects at different spatiotemporal scales, and, finally, the need for an interdisciplinary vision.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Middle to Late Holocene Sea Surface Temperature and Productivity Changes in the Northeast Pacific

Variations of the sea surface temperature (SST) and primary productivity in the northeast Pacific have far‐reaching implications. In addition to influencing the regional and global temperature and hydroclimate, these conditions also control marine ecosystems and their services, which subsequently impact regional economies. Yet, our understanding of the variability and controls of northeast Pacific SST and productivity on timescales exceeding observational records remains limited. Here, we use marine sediment records from seven locations, spanning 25.2°N–59.6°N, in the northeast Pacific to characterize the millennial‐scale variability of SST and productivity from 9,000 to 1,000 years BP. We explore the dynamics of their spatiotemporal evolution and compare these data with transient climate model outputs to identify potential drivers. Through a heat budget analysis and optimal fingerprinting analysis, we characterize the spatial pattern of forcings. We find that SST varied spatially in the northeast Pacific, with higher latitudes exhibiting greater magnitude changes than lower latitudes, which differs from previous work suggesting regional synchronicity and coherence during the Holocene. Our analysis did not find evidence for coherent variability of primary producer community nor carbon export, highlighting the difficulty of identifying the complex interactions between environmental conditions, producers, and carbon export. Model‐proxy disagreement demonstrates the need for higher resolution model frameworks, but shows nonetheless that observed variability in the proxy records can be explained by a combination of greenhouse gas and orbital forcing. Here we suggest that the complex SST variations and marine ecosystem responses to forced changes are important factors that can drive disagreements in model projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ensemble learning-iterative training machine learning for uncertainty quantification and automated experiment in atom-resolved microscopy

Deep learning has emerged as a technique of choice for rapid feature extraction across imaging disciplines, allowing rapid conversion of the data streams to spatial or spatiotemporal arrays of features of interest. However, applications of deep learning in experimental domains are often limited by the out-of-distribution drift between the experiments, where the network trained for one set of imaging conditions becomes sub-optimal for different ones. This limitation is particularly stringent in the quest to have an automated experiment setting, where retraining or transfer learning becomes impractical due to the need for human intervention and associated latencies. Here we explore the reproducibility of deep learning for feature extraction in atom-resolved electron microscopy and introduce workflows based on ensemble learning and iterative training to greatly improve feature detection. This approach allows incorporating uncertainty quantification into the deep learning analysis and also enables rapid automated experimental workflows where retraining of the network to compensate for out-of-distribution drift due to subtle change in imaging conditions is substituted for human operator or programmatic selection of networks from the ensemble. This methodology can be further applied to machine learning workflows in other imaging areas including optical and chemical imaging.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Characterizing the uppermost 100 m structure of the San Jacinto fault zone southeast of Anza, California, through joint analysis of geological, topographic, seismic and resistivity data

We present results from complementary geological, topographic, seismic and electrical resistivity surveys at the Sagebrush Flat (SGB) site along the Clark fault (CF) strand of the San Jacinto fault zone trifurcation area southeast of Anza, California. Joint interpretation of these data sets, each with unique spatiotemporal sensitivities, allow us to better characterize the shallow (<100 m) fault zone at this structurally complex site. Geological mapping at the surface shows the CF has three main subparallel strands within a <100 m zone with varying degrees of rock damage. These strands intersect units of banded gneiss and tonalite, and various sedimentary units. Near the surface, the weathered but more intact tonalite and gneiss to the southwest have relatively high VP. The low-lying flat sedimentary basins around the two southwestern-most CF strands and elevated damaged gneiss to the northeast have lowest VP <500 m s–1. The high relief of the northeast gneiss unit may in part be explained by its extensive damage and inferred increased relative rock uplift. Resistivity imaging shows the unconsolidated dry basin sediments (maximum >1300 Ohm.m) contrasted against the compacted fine-grained (potentially wet) materials within the CF core and the Bautista Formation (minimum <40 Ohm.m), which is slightly elevated above the flat basins. The inverse relationship between VP (increases) and resistivity (decreases) in the uppermost ~15 m can be characterized as log–log linear with slopes of –2.6 to –4. At depths >30 m, the velocity heterogeneity near the surface merges into larger-scale structures that are generally slower on the northeast side of the CF core compared to the southwest side (as much as ~40 per cent reduction in average VP). A previous study revealed a 20–37 per cent variability in peak ground velocities across the SGB site from local earthquakes. The upper end of that range is associated with the near-surface unconsolidated sedimentary basins and northeast damaged gneiss unit. Preliminary analysis of time-dependent topography mostly shows effects of changing vegetation and anthropogenic activity.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Z Line VISAR Analysis with the LineVISAR SMASH Class

The Z line VISAR system (ZLV) is a spatially-resolved velocimeter that measures surface velocities in high-energy density experiments on the Z Pulsed Power Facility to facilitate the investigation of fusion, power flow, and dynamic material physics. The data measured in these experiments are analyzed with the LineVISAR SMASH class, a MATLAB software suite that provides tools for data importation, streak image correction, spatiotemporal registration, wrapped phase computation, phase unwrapping, shock handling, and velocity calculation. This report overviews the LineVISAR class, discusses its use, provides example implementations, and supplies analysis specifics not typically recorded in journal publications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A New Study of Sea Spray Optical Properties from Multi-Sensor Spaceborne Observations

Retrievals of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) satellite sensor require the assumption of an extinction-to-backscatter ratio, also known as the lidar ratio. This paper evaluates a new method to calculate lidar ratio of sea spray aerosol using two independent sources: the AOD from Synergized Optical Depth of Aerosols (SODA) and the integrated attenuated backscatter from CALIOP. The method applied in this study allows particulate lidar ratio to be calculated for individual CALIOP retrievals of single aerosol layer columns over the ocean. Analyses are carried out using CALIOP level 2, 5km sea spray aerosol layer products and collocated SODA nighttime data from December 2007 to December 2009. The global mean lidar ratio for sea spray aerosols was found to be 26 sr, roughly 30 higher than the one prescribed by CALIOP. Data analysis also showed considerable spatiotemporal variability in calculated lidar ratio over different parts of the remote oceans. The calculated aerosol lidar ratios are shown to be inversely related to the mean ocean surface wind speed: increase in ocean surface wind speed (U10) from 0 to 15 ms-1 reduces the mean lidar ratios for sea spray particles from 32 sr (for 0 U10 4 ms-1) to 22 sr (for U10 15 ms-1). Such changes in the lidar ratio are expected to have a corresponding effect on sea spray AOD. The outcomes of this study are relevant for future improvements of the SODA and CALIOP operational product and could lead to more accurate retrievals of sea spray AOD.

aerosol optical depth↗

Open-Source Science-Driven Development of the Science Data System (SDS) for Earth System Observatory (ESO) Atmospheric Missions

The NASA Earth System Observatory (ESO) atmospheric missions will provide space-based and suborbital observations of collocated cloud, dynamic, precipitation and aerosol processing leading to improved weather, air quality, and climate predictions. The Science Data System (SDS) will deploy the adaptive processing system (APS) developed within the Cloud to manage the research and operational processing of ESO atmospheric mission orbital and suborbital sensors and curate these data for near real-time and collection reprocessing and transfer them to a NASA Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) for long-term storage and distribution. Further, the SDS will follow guidelines provided by NASA Earth Science Data Systems (ESDS) program including standard conventions for data file formats, naming, and metadata to improve data interoperability, interpretability, usability, discovery, provenance, and spatiotemporal representativeness. The SDS follows NASA’s commitment to Open-Source Science (OSS) including the sharing of data, software, and knowledge in an open and timely manner. Each of the SDS system components will be developed with open-source concepts including components of APS itself as well as ESO atmospheric mission algorithms. This presentation describes the framework of the SDS and its integral part in facilitating OSS within the ESO atmospheric missions.

David M. Giles↗