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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitive Resources Assessment and Forest Analysis for the Proposed Versatile Test Reactor, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

The US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is a leading institution in advanced materials, supercomputing, neutrons, and nuclear science. As a research laboratory managed by UT-Battelle, LLC for DOE, ORNL has national priorities in energy, security, and scientific discovery that necessitate facility improvements and expansions. DOE is also committed to environmental stewardship. The laboratory is located on the ~32,000-acre (~13,000-ha) Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR), much of which is categorized as a National Environmental Research Park (NERP) and a state Wildlife Management Area. DOE works with the Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency (TWRA), Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC), US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), US Department of Agriculture, and other agencies to serve as an effective steward of the ORR. Accordingly, project managers must conform to environmental regulations, agreements, and policies at the federal, state, and institutional levels. Per 40 CFR (Code of Federal Regulations) 1508.14, potential effects on research and science education also represent potential effects of federal actions on the NERP, and impacts on, e.g., deer harvest, must be considered on the Oak Ridge Wildlife Management Area when other aspects of the human environment are affected. The United States currently has no fast neutron testing capability to support advanced nuclear research and development. The proposed Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) will take advantage of current investments by the US government and private industry in nuclear reactors to expedite the design and construction process, using proven technology to create a world-class scientific infrastructure. The VTR will take advantage of fast neutrons provided by this proven technology, along with a capability to rapidly insert, conduct, and remove state-of-the-art experiments. An advantage of the VTR is that it can support future innovations in experimental capabilities without modifying the facility. The VTR will support progress in a variety of science and technology areas, including testing and qualification of advanced reactor fuels; testing and qualification of innovative structural materials; testing of innovative components and instruments; validation of advanced modeling and simulation tools; and versatility for future technical missions. Through proven technology, the VTR can take advantage of existing reactor designs and operating experience to reduce the risk, cost, and time for design and construction. The top available resources of DOE laboratories, industry, and universities will be used to expedite reactor design and construction toward developing the scientific infrastructure that affords a strong testing capability that can be sustained over many years. This report summarizes current knowledge of natural and cultural resources primarily within the VTR construction area. At the time of this report, the proposed VTR site design includes a construction area of ~150.4 acres (~69.9 ha), which contains an ~51.3-acre (~20.8-ha) operations area, located within forested natural areas of the ORR. The primary goal of the work presented here was to evaluate potential effects on sensitive resources that might result from development and construction activities associated with VTR. In addition to on-the-ground surveys during spring and summer 2020 by the ORNL Natural Resources Management Program and Aquatic Ecology Group staff, this report makes use of historical (pre-1995) and contemporary (1995 to present) data from additional confirmed sources (e.g., TDEC). Likewise, forest conditions were compiled from a 2011 forest inventory and supplemented with limited ground observations in 2020. The individuals who obtained and compiled the data presented here are familiar with and routinely assess sensitive resources on the ORR. Anyone who references this report must consider that the timing of surveys did not permit a complete delineation of the resources that will be affected. If the VTR project proceeds, additional surveys will be required to account for the seasonal patterns of various threatened and endangered species. Data deficiencies and potential resources that likely went undetected are indicated where possible. Accordingly, this report should facilitate more environmentally sound decisions during planning and 2 development of the VTR site, provide a foundation for further assessment of sensitive and cultural resources, and help project managers better address regulatory guidance and DOE policies on sustainable development in compliance with, for example, the US Endangered Species Act (ESA), Migratory Bird Treaty Act (MBTA), Tennessee Rare Plant Protection and Conservation Act of 1985, Tennessee Nongame and Endangered or Threatened Wildlife Species Conservation Act of 1974, several federal and state regulations regarding aquatic resource protection, and site-specific policies as outlined in various ORR management plans developed by ORNL and TWRA for DOE.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Divergent Metabolic Changes in Rhizomes of Lowland and Upland Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) from Early Season through Dormancy Onset

High-biomass-yielding southerly adapted switchgrasses (Panicum virgatum L.) frequently suffer from unpredictable winter hardiness at more northerly sites arising from damage to rhizomes that prevent effective spring regrowth. Previously, changes occurring over the growing season in rhizomes sampled from a cold-adapted tetraploid upland cultivar, Summer, demonstrated a role for abscisic acid (ABA), starch accumulation, and transcriptional reprogramming as drivers of dormancy onset and potential keys to rhizome health during winter dormancy. Here, rhizome metabolism of a high-yielding southerly adapted tetraploid switchgrass cultivar, Kanlow—which is a significant source of genetics for yield improvement—was studied over a growing season at a northern site. Metabolite levels and transcript abundances were combined to develop physiological profiles accompanying greening through the onset of dormancy in Kanlow rhizomes. Next, comparisons of the data to rhizome metabolism occurring in the adapted upland cultivar Summer were performed. These data revealed both similarities as well as numerous differences in rhizome metabolism that were indicative of physiological adaptations unique to each cultivar. Similarities included elevated ABA levels and accumulation of starch in rhizomes during dormancy onset. Notable differences were observed in the accumulation of specific metabolites, the expression of genes encoding transcription factors, and several enzymes linked to primary metabolism.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hanford Tank Vapors in Worker Breathing Zones - Source, Dispersion, and Receptor Data - 20373

A wide range of organic and inorganic chemicals from historical Hanford Site processes are now stored in 177 underground storage tanks at the Hanford tank farms. Workers at the Hanford tank farms have expressed concerns about chemical vapor exposures for many years. During the spring of 2014, worker reports of chemical odors and/or symptoms prompted the development of the Savannah River National Laboratory Hanford Tank Vapor Assessment Team (TVAT) and their resulting independent assessment and recommendations concerning tank farm worker reports of vapors. The Tank Vapor Assessment report included a hypothesis that 'vapors coming out of tanks in high concentration (bolus) plumes sporadically intersected with the breathing zones of workers, resulting in brief but intense exposures to some workers.' The focus of this effort is to present current knowledge to describe the mechanisms by which workers may experience short duration vapor concentrations above background in the tank farms environment. The TVAT hypothesis that workers have experienced concentrations approaching 80% of the tank headspace up to 3 meters (10 feet) from tank sources is not supported by sampling data or modeling results. Modeling indicates that concentrations are quickly reduced from the source, and that the upper end of predicted concentrations at worker breathing zones are a factor of 10 or more lower than source concentrations. Area measurements corroborate the fact that worker breathing zone concentrations are 10 to 100 times lower than source concentrations, and events with elevated concentrations are rare. These reduced vapor concentration levels may result in detectable odors or irritation, depending on a worker's specific odor threshold and sensitivity to the chemical species. Short-duration vapor events may be mitigated by evaluating daily atmospheric conditions in conjunction with planned tank farm activities. Monitoring changing conditions related to tank vapors concentrations at the source and within worker breathing zone is also an important step to protect workers from short duration elevated concentration events. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Tracking Seasonal and Interannual Variability in Photosynthetic Downregulation in Response to Water Stress at a Temperate Deciduous Forest

Abstract The understanding and modeling of photosynthetic dynamics affected by climate variability can be highly uncertain. In this paper, we examined a well‐characterized eddy covariance site in a drought‐prone temperate deciduous broadleaf forest combining tower measurements and satellite observations. We find that an increase in spring temperature usually leads to enhanced spring gross primary production (GPP), but a GPP reduction in late growing season due to water limitation. We evaluated how well a coupled fluorescence‐photosynthesis model (SCOPE) and satellite data sets track the interannual and seasonal variations of tower GPP from 2007 to 2016. In SCOPE, a simple stress factor scaling of Vcmax as a linear function of observed predawn leaf water potential ( ψ pd ) shows a good agreement between modeled and measured interannual variations in both GPP and solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment‐2 (GOME‐2). The modeled and satellite‐observed changes in SIF yield are ~30% smaller than corresponding changes in light use efficiency (LUE) under severe stress, for which a common linear SIF to GPP scaling would underestimate the stress reduction in GPP. Overall, GOME‐2 SIF tracks interannual tower GPP variations better than satellite vegetations indices (VIs) representing canopy “greenness.” However, it is still challenging to attribute observed SIF variations unequivocally to greenness or physiological changes due to large GOME‐2 footprint. Higher‐resolution SIF data sets (e.g., TROPOMI) already show the potential to well capture the downregulation of late‐season GPP and could pave the way to better disentangle canopy structural and physiological changes in the future.

He, Liyin↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mechanisms Behind the Long‐Distance Diurnal Offshore Precipitation Propagation in Northwestern South America

Abstract Northwestern South America (NWSA) is the rainiest region on Earth, with diurnal precipitation exhibiting extensive westward offshore propagation of up to about 1,200 km in boreal spring (March‐May). The diurnal offshore precipitation propagation begins slowly (3–10 m s −1 ) near the coast of NWSA (<200 km) but accelerates significantly (∼20 m s −1 ) and shows an afternoon enhancement far from the coast (>400 km). However, the driving mechanisms behind this long‐distance precipitation propagation remain unclear. Using a new cloud tracking and classification data set, we found that mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are the dominant precipitation contributors in the offshore region of NWSA. Cloud tracking shows that the long‐distance propagation and the afternoon enhancement of diurnal precipitation primarily originate from MCSs initiated in the early morning, either over open oceans or from the coast of Central America. Composite tendency analysis shows that MCSs initiated near the coast of Central America have significant upward cooling and moistening signals starting from the surface before initiation. Further analysis of surface diurnal perturbation fields indicates that the land breeze is the primary driving mechanism for MCS initiation. Conversely, for MCSs initiated over open oceans, a significant downward cooling signal from 400 hPa is observed ∼7 hr before initiation, corresponding to the passage of diurnal gravity waves emitted from the Andes. Additionally, our findings highlight the critical role of lower and mid‐level moisture conditions in MCS initiation, alongside the influence of gravity waves.

Hu, Jingyi [Department of Meteorology and Atmosphe↗
DOE OSTI2026

Effects of density turbulence on helicon wave propagation in the core plasmas

Radio frequency wave propagation can be significantly affected by density irregularities, such as filaments in the scrape-off layer or instabilities in the core plasma. In this study, we examine the impact of edge turbulence on helicon wave propagation using the Petra-M simulation tool. To analyze the effect of edge turbulence, we utilize a realistic background plasma derived from XGC simulations, which includes spatial density fluctuations at the edge. This focus is particularly relevant for the DIII-D configuration, characterized by edge density turbulence of the core plasmas in a wide pedestal QH-mode. We focus on helicon wave propagation in the core plasma since the slow mode cannot propagate into the core plasma when the density is higher than the lower hybrid resonance, where a wide pedestal QH-mode occurs. The simulation results indicate that edge density fluctuations have a substantial impact on helicon wave coupling due to scattering in the core. We specifically demonstrate that the toroidal mode number and the level of density fluctuations are significant factors influencing scattering. While we have minimized the excitation of slow modes from the antenna, we still observe mode-converted slow modes resulting from the incoming helicon waves. The insights derived from these simulations will inform upcoming tokamak experiments regarding helicon antenna coupling in long pulse scenarios.

Kim, Eun-Hwa [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermal Stimulation and Injectivity Testing at Raft River, ID EGS Site

The Raft River geothermal field is the site of an innovative Department of Energy Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) project to determine the viability of using combined thermal and hydraulic stimulation techniques to improve energy production. Well RRG-9 is currently undergoing a stimulation program using injectate from the US Geothermal Raft River Power Plant and cold water from a cooling tower make-up water well. The stimulation began on 13 June 2013 with injection from the power plant at a temperature of about 39 °C and a pressure of 275 psig. Next, two positive displacement plunger type pumps were used to increase the injection pressure and flow rate for about one month. The highest rate achieved was 258 gpm at a pressure of 741 psig. During this time, fluid from the cooler water well was injected for about 2 weeks at various pressures. Then, the pumps were removed and plant injection resumed on 25 September. Plant injection will continue until the spring of 2014, when a high pressure hydraulic stimulation will be conducted. A series of seismic monitoring stations deployed around the well are providing data on seismic events occurring at the site. Over the past year, 51 microseismic events have been recorded, all less than Magnitude 1. During injection, several diagnostic tests were conducted to gain a better understanding of the well and reservoir. A step-rate test was performed on 22 August to measure the in-situ stress and aid in modeling in-situ fractures. A tracer was injected into the well on 9 September. No tracer was detected in adjacent production wells after several months. A second borehole televiewer survey was conducted for comparison to pre-stimulation images. Here, a third borehole televiewer survey is planned after the high pressure stimulation. Injection test data is evaluated in real time. A modified Hall plot analysis indicates the effective permeability is increasing. The injectivity index supports the results of the modified Hall plot analysis. As the thermal stimulation has continued, the injectivity index has consistently followed an upward trend from 0.1 gpm/psi to 0.53 gpm/psi.

enhanced geothermal systems↗
DOE OSTI2024

62°S Witnesses the Transition of Boundary Layer Marine Aerosol Pattern Over the Southern Ocean (50°S–68°S, 63°E– 150°E) During the Spring and Summer: Results From MARCUS (I)

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility-2 was installed onboard the research vessel Aurora Australis to measure aerosol properties during the 2017-2018 Measurement of Aerosols, Radiation, and CloUds over the pristine Southern ocean (MARCUS) Experiment, providing unique data on aerosols latitudinal and seasonal variation, including south of 60 degrees S where previous observations are scarce. Data from a Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) counter and Ultra-High-Sensitivity Aerosol Spectrometer show that both the number concentration (N-CCN) and size distribution of CCN-active aerosols, with diameters (D) between 60 nm < D < 1,000 nm are different over the North Southern Ocean (NSO) (50 degrees S-60 degrees S) and the South Southern Ocean (SSO) (62 degrees S-68 degrees S). The average NSO N-CCN at 0.2% and 0.5% supersaturation were 28% and 49% less than that over the SSO. This increase of CCN over the SSO is caused by the increase of aerosols with 60 nm < D < 200 nm, consistent with calculations of Aerosol Scattering Angstrom Exponents derived from a nephelometer. Aerosol hygroscopicity growth factor measured by the Hygroscopic Tandem Differential Mobility Analyzer stayed close to 1.41 for aerosols with 50 nm < D < 250 nm over the SSO, but increased from 1.30 to 1.67 over the NSO, indicating different chemical compositions. Both CCN and Ice Nucleating Particles (INPs) showed a stronger variation with season than with latitude. The variation of heat-labile and presumably proteinacous INPs suggests an increase of ice nucleating-active microbes in summer.

Niu, Qing↗
DOE OSTI2022

Metatranscriptomics reveals a shift in microbial community composition and function during summer months in a coastal marine environment

Abstract Temperate coastal marine waters are often thermally stratified from spring through fall but can be dynamic and disrupted by tidal currents and wind‐driven upwelling. These mixing events introduce deeper, cooler water with a higher partial pressure of CO 2 (pCO2) and its associated microbial communities to the surface. Anecdotally, these events impact shellfish hatcheries and farms, warranting improved understanding of changes in composition and activity of marine microbial communities in relation to environmental processes. To characterize both compositional and functional changes associated with abiotic factors, here, we generate a reference metatranscriptome from the Strait of Georgia over representative seasons and analyze metatranscriptomic profiles of the microorganisms present within intake water containing different pCO 2 levels at a shellfish hatchery in British Columbia from June through October. Abiotic factors studied include pH, temperature, alkalinity, aragonite, calcite, and pCO 2 . Community composition changes were observed to occur at broad taxonomic levels and most notably to vary with temperature and pCO 2 . Functional gene expression profiles indicated a strong difference between early (June–July) and late summer (August–October) associated with viral activity. The taxonomic data suggest this could be due to the termination of cyanobacteria and phytoplankton blooms by viral lysis in the late season. Functional analysis indicated fewer differentially expressed transcripts associated with abiotic variables (e.g., pCO 2 ) than with the temporal effect. Microbial composition and activity in these waters vary with both short‐term effects observed alongside abiotic variation and long‐term effects observed across seasons. The analysis of both taxonomy and functional gene expression simultaneously in the same samples by environmental RNA (eRNA metatranscriptomics) provided a more comprehensive view for monitoring water bodies than either would in isolation.

Sutherland, Ben J. G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Interpretation of hydrothermal conditions, production-injection induced effects, and evidence for enhanced geothermal system-type heat exchange in response to >30 years of production at Roosevelt Hot Springs, Utah, USA

The Roosevelt Hot Springs hydrothermal system is located at the base of the Mineral Mountains in southwestern Utah on the eastern side of the Basin and Range. Hydrothermal activity is related to relatively recent bimodal magmatism, and the system is hosted in coarsely crystalline rock made of Oligocene–Miocene granitoids and Precambrian gneiss. The hydrothermal plume covers ~5 km 2 , with a maximum temperature of 268 °C at ~750 m depth, and a vertically extensive fault-fracture mesh east of the Opal Mound fault controls the upflow of hydrothermal fluids. Power generation (currently 38 MWe gross) began in 1984, and up through 2016, four wells were used for fluid production, and three wells were used for edge-field injection. Chemical analyses of produced fluids show that modern reservoir fluid compositions are similar to but more concentrated than those at the start of production, having near-neutral pH, total dissolved solids of 7000–10,000 mg/kg, and ionic ratios of Cl/HCO 3 ~50–100, Cl/SO4 ~50–100, and Na/K ~4–5. Chemical geothermometers indicate equilibration temperatures that mainly range between 240° and 300 °C. Early production induced a steep drop in pressure (~3.0–3.5 MPa), which was accompanied by a 250–300 m lowering of piezometric levels in wells and development of a shallow steam zone across the system. Hydrothermal fluid compositions evolved continuously in response to production-related steam-loss and injection breakthrough, which is reflected by gradual increases in chloride of up to 35% and stable isotope ratios of up to ~2‰δ 18 O and ~10‰δD. Simple mixing model calculations suggest that there has been a significant amount, ~10–20 MW th , of sustained multi-decadal heat mining and enhanced geothermal system (EGS)–type heat transfer by the injectate as it returns to the production zone. Overall, the two factors that have sustained long-term power production (currently 38 MWe gross) are the increased upflow of deep chloride water and, to a lesser extent, the mining of heat at <1 km depth.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

3-D Geologic Controls of Hydrothermal Fluid Flow at Brady Geothermal Field, Nevada using PCA

In many hydrothermal systems, fracture permeability along faults provides pathways for groundwater to transport heat from depth. Faulting generates a range of deformation styles that cross-cut heterogeneous geology, resulting in complex patterns of permeability, porosity, and hydraulic conductivity. Vertical connectivity (a through going network of permeable areas that allows advection of heat from depth to the shallow subsurface) is rare and is confined to relatively small volumes that have highly variable spatial distribution. This local compartmentalization of connectivity represents a significant challenge to understanding hydrothermal circulation and for exploring, developing, and managing hydrothermal resources. Here, we present an evaluation of the geologic characteristics that control this compartmentalization in hydrothermal systems through 3-D analysis of the Brady geothermal field in western Nevada. A published 3-D geologic map of the Brady area is used as a basis to develop structural and geological variables that are hypothesized to control or effect permeability or connectivity. The 3-D distribution of these variables is compared to the distribution of productive and non-productive fluid flow intervals along production wells and non-productive wells via principal component analysis (PCA). This comparison elucidates which geologic and structural variables are most closely associated with productive fluid flow intervals. Results indicate that production intervals at Brady are located: (1) within or near to known and stress-loaded macro-scale faults, and (2) in areas of high fault and fracture density. This submission includes the published journal article detailing this work, the published 3-D geologic map of the Brady Geothermal Area used as a basis to develop structural and geological variables that are hypothesized to control or effect permeability or connectivity, 3-D well data, along which geologic data were sampled for PCA analyses, and associated metadata file. This work was done using existing R programs.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Utah FORGE: Phase 3 InSAR Study Results

Ground movement is evaluated through analysis of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) interferograms. Results indicate there has been no detectable ground movement at millimeter scale. The zipped file in this submission contains a report, maps, and results from the InSAR Phase 3 study done to determine ground crustal deformation, if any, in the Utah FORGE area. The data used to facilitate this study included synthetic aperture radar data acquired by the TerraSAR-X and TanDEM-X satellite missions operated by the German Space Agency (DLR). It is accompanied by a README.txt file which further describes each included dataset.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structural differences between human and mouse neurons and their implementation in generative AIs

Mouse and human brains have different functions that depend on their neuronal networks. We analyzed nanometer-scale three-dimensional structures of brain tissues of the mouse medial prefrontal cortex and compared them with structures of the human anterior cingulate cortex. The obtained results indicated that mouse neuronal somata are smaller and neurites are thinner than those of human neurons. We implemented these characteristics of mouse neurons in convolutional layers of a generative adversarial network (GAN) and a denoising diffusion implicit model (DDIM), which were then subjected to image generation tasks using photo datasets of cat faces, cheese, human faces, birds, and automobiles. The mouse-mimetic GAN outperformed a standard GAN in the image generation task using the cat faces and cheese photo datasets, but underperformed for human faces and birds. The mouse-mimetic DDIM gave similar results, suggesting that the nature of the datasets affected the results. Analyses of the five datasets indicated differences in their image entropy, which should influence the number of parameters required for image generation. The preferences of the mouse-mimetic AIs coincided with the impressions commonly associated with mice. The relationship between the neuronal network and brain function should be investigated by implementing other biological findings in artificial neural networks.

generative AI↗
DOE OSTI2023

PHYTOCHROME C regulation of photoperiodic flowering via PHOTOPERIOD1 is mediated by EARLY FLOWERING 3 in Brachypodium distachyon

Daylength sensing in many plants is critical for coordinating the timing of flowering with the appropriate season. Temperate climate-adapted grasses such as Brachypodium distachyon flower during the spring when days are becoming longer. The photoreceptor PHYTOCHROME C is essential for long-day (LD) flowering in B. distachyon. PHYC is required for the LD activation of a suite of genes in the photoperiod pathway including PHOTOPERIOD1 (PPD1) that, in turn, result in the activation of FLOWERING LOCUS T (FT1)/FLORIGEN, which causes flowering. Thus, B. distachyon phyC mutants are extremely delayed in flowering. Here we show that PHYC-mediated activation of PPD1 occurs via EARLY FLOWERING 3 (ELF3), a component of the evening complex in the circadian clock. The extreme delay of flowering of the phyC mutant disappears when combined with an elf3 loss-of-function mutation. Moreover, the dampened PPD1 expression in phyC mutant plants is elevated in phyC/elf3 mutant plants consistent with the rapid flowering of the double mutant. We show that loss of PPD1 function also results in reduced FT1 expression and extremely delayed flowering consistent with results from wheat and barley. Additionally, elf3 mutant plants have elevated expression levels of PPD1, and we show that overexpression of ELF3 results in delayed flowering associated with a reduction of PPD1 and FT1 expression, indicating that ELF3 represses PPD1 transcription consistent with previous studies showing that ELF3 binds to the PPD1 promoter. Indeed, PPD1 is the main target of ELF3-mediated flowering as elf3/ppd1 double mutant plants are delayed flowering. Our results indicate that ELF3 operates downstream from PHYC and acts as a repressor of PPD1 in the photoperiod flowering pathway of B. distachyon.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

An evaluation of global organic aerosol schemes using airborne observations

Chemical transport models have historically struggled to accurately simulate the magnitude and variability of observed organic aerosol (OA), with previous studies demonstrating that models significantly underestimate observed concentrations in the troposphere. In this study, we explore two different model OA schemes within the standard GEOS-Chem chemical transport model and evaluate the simulations against a suite of 15 globally distributed airborne campaigns from 2008 to 2017, primarily in the spring and summer seasons. These include the ATom, KORUS-AQ, GoAmazon,FRAPPE, SEAC4RS, SENEX, DC3, CalNex, OP3, EUCAARI, ARCTAS and ARCPAC campaigns and provide broad coverage over a diverse set of atmospheric composition regimes – anthropogenic, biogenic, pyrogenic and remote. The schemes include significant differences in their treatment of the primary and secondary components of OA – a “simple scheme” that models primary OA (POA) as non-volatile and takes a fixed-yield approach to secondary OA (SOA) formation and a “complex scheme” that simulates POA as semi-volatile and uses a more sophisticated volatility basis set approach for non-isoprene SOA, with an explicit aqueous uptake mechanism to model isoprene SOA. Despite these substantial differences, both the simple and complex schemes perform comparably across the aggregate dataset in their ability to capture the observed variability (with an R2 of 0.41 and 0.44, respectively). The simple scheme displays greater skill in minimizing the overall model bias (with a normalized mean bias of 0.04 compared to 0.30 for the complex scheme). Across both schemes, the model skill in reproducing observed OA is superior to previous model evaluations and approaches the fidelity of the sulfate simulation within the GEOS-Chem model. However,there are significant differences in model performance across different chemical source regimes, classified here into seven categories.Higher-resolution nested regional simulations indicate that model resolution is an important factor in capturing variability in highly localized campaigns, while also demonstrating the importance of well-constrained emissions inventories and local meteorology, particularly over Asia. Our analysis suggests that a semi-volatile treatment of POA is superior to anon-volatile treatment. It is also likely that the complex scheme parameterization overestimates biogenic SOA at the global scale. While this study identifies factors within the SOA schemes that likely contribute to OA model bias (such as a strong dependency of the bias in the complex scheme on relative humidity and sulfate concentrations), comparisons with the skill of the sulfate aerosol scheme in GEOS-Chem indicate the importance of other drivers of bias, such as emissions, transport and deposition, that are exogenous to the OA chemical scheme.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seasonal and Interspecific Variation in Frugivory by a Mixed Resident-Migrant Overwintering Songbird Community

Many temperate passerine bird species switch from diets of mostly invertebrates in the spring and summer to diets that include fruit and seeds in the fall and winter. However, relatively few studies have quantified diet composition or the extent of seasonal shifts during the non-breeding period, particularly among species and across communities with both residents and migrants. We measured carbon and nitrogen stable isotope values in food items (fruits, C3 and C4 seeds, and insects from various trophic levels and plant communities) and in multiple tissues (feathers and plasma/whole blood) from 11 species of songbirds wintering in the southeastern U.S. We combined these diet and tissue values with empirically derived discrimination factors and used concentration-dependent mixing models to quantify seasonal diet shifts. We also validated mixing model results with data from fecal samples. Diets in this bird community, as delineated N and C isotopic space, diverged in the fall and winter relative to the summer as consumption of fruits and seeds increased. Across this songbird community, estimated contributions of fruit to plasma/whole blood increased from 16.2 ± 7.5% in the fall (mean ± SD; range: 4–26%) to 21.7 ± 10.3% (range: 9–37%) in the winter, while contributions of seeds increased from 29.4 ± 2.6% (range: 28–32%) in the fall to 36.6 ± 4.8% (range: 32–42%) in the winter. Fecal data showed qualitatively similar trends to mixing models, but consistently estimated higher contributions of fruit. Our work indicates that fruits and seeds constitute substantial sources of sustenance for non-breeding songbirds, there is considerable separation of resource use among species in the fall and winter, and fecal estimates of contributions to songbird tissues should be interpreted cautiously.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evaluating next-generation intensity–duration–frequency curves for design flood estimates in the snow-dominated western United States

Civil infrastructure such as culverts and bridges are commonly designed using precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (PREC-IDF) curves, which assume that the occurrence of precipitation is in the form of rainfall and immediately available for the rainfall-runoff process. In snow-dominated regions, where most winter precipitation occurs as snow that melts during spring to early summer, the use of standard PREC-IDF curves may lead to substantial underestimation of design floods and high failure risk of infrastructure. In this context, we developed next-generation IDF (NG-IDF) curves that characterize the actual water reaching the land surface (i.e., rainfall plus snowmelt) to enhance standard infrastructure design in snow-dominated regions. This study evaluates the performance of NG-IDF curves coupled with U.S. Department of Agriculture Technical Release 55 hydrologic model in estimating design floods for 246 snowy locations in different hydroclimate regimes of the western United States. Design flood estimates from a well-validated continuous simulation using a physics-based hydrologic model, the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), were used as the performance benchmark. Compared with the benchmark estimates, the standard PREC-IDF curves led to substantial errors in design flood estimates while the NG-IDF curves significantly reduced these errors. For example, the averaged error in the 50-year design flood estimates over the 246 locations was reduced from 31% with the use of PREC-IDF curves to 12% with the use of NG-IDF curves. Despite the different model structures, the single-event NG-IDF approach versus the continuous simulation DHSVM did not exhibit statistically significant differences in 91% of the 246 locations for the 50-year design flood estimates. We find this indicates a satisfactory performance of NG-IDF curves to estimate design flow under the conditions tested in the snow-dominated western United States. This article also presents technical suggestions and the limitations of infrastructure design using NG-IDF curves for regulatory agencies and practicing engineers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pivotal trial characteristics and types of endpoints used to support Food and Drug Administration rare disease drug approvals between 2013 and 2022

Background/aims Rare disease drug development faces unique challenges, such as genotypic and phenotypic heterogeneity within small patient populations and a lack of established outcome measures for conditions without previously successful drug development programs. These challenges complicate the process of selecting the appropriate trial endpoints and conducting clinical trials in rare diseases. In this descriptive study, we examined novel drug approvals for non-oncologic rare diseases by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research over the past decade and characterized key regulatory and trial design elements with a focus on the primary efficacy endpoint utilized as the basis of approval. Methods Using the Food and Drug Administration’s Data Analysis Search Host database, we identified novel new drug applications and biologics license applications with orphan drug designation that were approved between 2013 and 2022 for non-oncologic indications. From Food and Drug Administration review documents and other external databases, we examined characteristics of pivotal trials for the included drugs, such as therapeutic area, trial design, and type of primary efficacy endpoints. Differences in trial design elements associated with primary efficacy endpoint type were assessed such as randomization and blinding. Then, we summarized the primary efficacy endpoint types utilized in pivotal trials by therapeutic area, approval pathway, and whether the disease etiology is well defined. Results One hundred and seven drugs that met our inclusion criteria were approved between 2013 and 2022. Assessment of the 107 drug development programs identified 150 pivotal trials that were subsequently analyzed. The pivotal trials were mostly randomized (80%) and blinded (69.3%). Biomarkers (41.1%) and clinical outcomes (42.1%) were commonly utilized as primary efficacy endpoints. Analysis of the use of clinical trial design elements across trials that utilized biomarkers, clinical outcomes, or composite endpoints did not reveal statistically significant differences. The choice of primary efficacy endpoint varied by the drug’s therapeutic area, approval pathway, and whether the indicated disease etiology was well defined. For example, biomarkers were commonly selected as primary efficacy endpoints in hematology drug approvals (70.6%), whereas clinical outcomes were commonly selected in neurology drug approvals (69.6%). Further, if the disease etiology was well defined, biomarkers were more commonly used as primary efficacy endpoints in pivotal trials (44.7%) than if the disease etiology was not well defined (27.3%). Discussion In the past 10 years, numerous novel drugs have been approved to treat non-oncologic rare diseases in various therapeutic areas. To demonstrate their efficacy for regulatory approval, biomarkers and clinical outcomes were commonly utilized as primary efficacy endpoints. Biomarkers were not only frequently used as surrogate efficacy endpoints in accelerated approvals, but also in traditionally approved rare disease drugs. The choice of primary efficacy endpoints varied by therapeutic area, approval pathway, and understanding of disease etiology.

Hong, Kyungwan [Rare Diseases Team, Office of New ↗