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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the cost and emissions impacts, feasibility and scalability of battery electric ships

The United States’ greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction goals, along with targets set by the International Maritime Organization, create an opportunity for battery electric shipping. In this study, we model life-cycle costs and GHG emissions from shipping electrification, leveraging ship activity datasets from across the United States in 2021. We estimate that retrofitting 6,323 domestic ships under 1,000 gross tonnage to battery electric vessels would reduce US domestic shipping GHG emissions by up to 73% by 2035 from 2022 levels. By 2035, electrifying up to 85% of these ships could become cost effective versus internal combustion engine ships if they cover 99% of annual trips and charge from a deeply decarbonized grid. We find that charging demands from electrifying these ships could be concentrated at just 20 of 150 major ports nationwide. This study demonstrates that retrofitting to battery electric vessels has economic potential and could significantly accelerate GHG emission reductions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Magnetic and Mechanical Analysis of Bi-2212 Rutherford Cable in a Cos-Theta Sub-Scale Dipole Coil

The U.S. Magnet Development Program (US-MDP) explores high-field accelerator magnets compatible with operational conditions beyond the limits of Nb$_3$Sn technology. The ongoing R&D High-Temperature Superconductors (HTS) suggests using Bi$_2$Sr$_2$CaCu$_2$O$_{8-x}$ (Bi-2212) as superconducting element. Bi-2212 Rutherford cables maintain a high critical current (I$_C$) when exposed to a large external magnetic field. However, Bi-2212 exhibits an oversensitive stress-strain response when subject to large Lorentz forces. This paper reports on the magnetic and mechanical analysis of the Bi-2212 cosine-theta insert being developed at Fermilab for a hybrid magnet composed of two external layers of Nb$_3$Sn and two internal layers of Bi-2212. We performed a FEM analysis of the insert to estimate the HTS stress state in the coil's strands under magnetic and mechanical loads.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Arctic extreme precipitation changes from 1980 to 2022 in response to sea ice decline and enhanced atmospheric rivers

Arctic extreme precipitation (EP) broadly impacts permafrost degradation, glacier and snow cover changes, and ice sheet mass balance as well as ecosystems. However, investigation of EP spatiotemporal variations over the Arctic remains challenging, and their primary drivers are still poorly understood. Performance estimation of three state-of-the-art reanalysis products (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA-5), and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2)) against gauge-based precipitation observations reveals that MERRA-2 outperforms other reanalysis for Arctic EP changes. Based on MERRA-2 data, both annual EP amount and occurrence days averaged over the Arctic show statistically significant positive trends during 1980–2022 (3.37 ± 1.03 mm dec −1 and 0.42 ± 0.17 d dec −1 , respectively), with the most pronounced increase in the autumn. Spatial heterogeneity in annual and seasonal EP trends is found across the Arctic, with the largest positive annual trends of 30 mm dec −1 over the Bering Sea and the Denmark Strait. The significant EP increase is closely associated with intensified atmospheric rivers (ARs) and widespread decline in sea ice concentration (SIC). Specially, SIC and ARs are responsible for 12% and 50% of Arctic EP inter-annual variance, respectively, while ARs directly contribute 28.3% of the total annual EP amounts. These findings explain the mechanistic controls on Arctic EP, providing critical insights for projecting polar weather and climate extremes and their impacts on the Arctic environment.

atmospheric rivers↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantum Filtering and Analysis of Multiplicities in Eigenvalue Spectra

Fine-grained spectral properties of quantum Hamiltonians, including both eigenvalues and their multiplicities, provide useful information for characterizing many-body quantum systems as well as for understanding phenomena such as topological order. Extracting such information with small additive error is #BQP-complete in the worst case. In this work, we introduce QFAMES (quantum filtering and analysis of multiplicities in eigenvalue spectra), a quantum algorithm that efficiently identifies clusters of closely spaced dominant eigenvalues and determines their multiplicities under physically motivated assumptions, which allows us to bypass worst-case complexity barriers. QFAMES also enables the estimation of observable expectation values within targeted energy clusters, providing a powerful tool for studying quantum phase transitions and other physical properties. We validate the effectiveness of QFAMES through numerical demonstrations, including its applications to characterizing quantum phases in the transverse-field Ising model and estimating the ground-state degeneracy of a topologically ordered phase in the two-dimensional toric code model. We also generalize QFAMES to the setting of mixed initial states. Our approach offers rigorous theoretical guarantees and significant advantages over existing subspace-based quantum spectral analysis methods, particularly in terms of the sample complexity and the ability to resolve degeneracies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Order conditions for nonlinearly partitioned Runge-Kutta methods

Recently, a new class of nonlinearly partitioned Runge–Kutta (NPRK) methods was proposed for nonlinearly partitioned systems of autonomous ordinary differential equations y' = F(y, y). The target class of problems are those in which different scales, stiffnesses, or physics are coupled in a nonlinear way, wherein the desired partition cannot be written in a classical additive or component-wise fashion. Here we use a rooted-tree analysis to derive full-order conditions for NPRKM methods, where M denotes the number of nonlinear partitions. Due to the nonlinear coupling and thereby the mixed product differentials, it turns out that the standard node-colored rooted tree analysis used in analyzing ODE integrators does not naturally apply. Instead we develop a new edge-colored rooted-tree framework to address the nonlinear coupling. The resulting order conditions are enumerated, are provided directly for up to fourth order with M = 2 and third order with M = 3, and are related to existing order conditions of additive and partitioned RK methods. We conclude with an example that shows how the nonlinear order conditions can be used to obtain an embedded estimate of the state-dependent nonlinear coupling strength in a dynamical system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling of Bi-2212 strand and Rutherford cable in a dipole coil insert

The U.S. Magnet Development Program (US-MDP) explores high-field accelerator magnets compatible with op- erational conditions beyond the limits of Nb3Sn technology. The ongoing R&D High-Temperature Superconductors (HTS) suggests using Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8−x (Bi-2212) as superconducting element. Bi-2212 Rutherford cables maintain a high critical current (IC ) when exposed to a large external magnetic field. However, Bi-2122 exhibits an oversensitive stress-strain response when subject to large Lorentz forces. This paper reports on the magnetic and mechanical analysis of the Bi-2212 cosine-theta insert being developed at Fermilab for a hybrid magnet composed of 2 external layers of Nb3Sn and 2 internal layers of Bi-2212. We performed a FEM analysis of the insert to estimate the HTS stress state in the coil s strands under magnetic and mechanical loads.

D'Agliano, A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of National New Construction Weighting Factors for the Commercial Building Prototype Analyses (2008-2022)

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) tasked Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) with updating commercial building construction weights for the purpose of estimating national and state-by-state energy savings impacts of changes made to various commercial energy codes and standards. A similar activity was last completed by PNNL in 2020 using disaggregate construction volume data acquired from the Dodge Data & Analytics database (formerly McGraw Hill) for the years 2003-2018 (Lei et al, 2020). As time passes, changes in economic and social demand reshape construction volume trends. For the current update, PNNL reviewed the same data source with the latest construction data for the years 2008-2022. For commercial building analyses, PNNL typically uses a suite of 16 prototype buildings simulated in the 19 ASHRAE climate zones with 16 of them present in the United States. The 2008-2022 commercial building weighting factors were derived using the same approach employed to develop the 2003-2018 set (Lei et al, 2020). Applying the construction volume data from the database to the prototypes and climate zones resulted in the following new construction area-based weighting factors. Table ES.1 shows the weighting factors including all building categories found in the database, and Table ES.2 shows the weighting factors normalized to include only buildings represented by the 16 prototypes. Section 3.0 also includes national- and state-level weighting factors by area and building count.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of Solar Radiation Using NA-CORDEX and the NSRDB

The current state-of-art for estimating long-term PV production uses long-term estimates of solar radiation variables, such as global horizontal irradiance (GHI), from previous years. This data is used in models such as the System Advisor Model (SAM) or PYSyst to predict annual production for a PV plant. This information is then used to estimate the production over the next 20 years (a typical plant lifetime) under the assumption that the variability over the current period is representative of the future. As the PV industry moves to extend plant lifetimes to 50 years the current assumptions of representativeness of weather may not be appropriate. This is especially true as our climate changes rapidly. To assess long-term PV production, future projections for solar radiation based on projected carbon emissions are readily available in regional and global climate models. However, climate model projections contain inherent biases that may need to be corrected for accurate analysis of future projections of climate variables. Several studies have analyzed projections of solar radiation for future years, however the accuracy of the model output compared to current and historic data has not been widely studied. Chen (2021) showed that available climate models do not accurately represent solar radiation in some cases, over-projecting GHI at the surface while under-projecting its obstructions, such as clouds and aerosols. This works aims to (1) increase understanding of the accuracy of solar radiation currently available in global and regional climate models and (2) implement bias correction through linear models based on reanalysis data compared to observed solar radiation. The latter aim will be conducted using available observed solar radiation data and modeled data from several regional climate models (RCMs). The bias correction method will be applied to projections of solar radiation resulting in a more accurate representation of the future of solar production.

climate data↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characterization of nuclear breakup as a function of hard-scattering kinematics using dijets measured by ATLAS in p+Pb collisions

This Letter analyzes the sensitivity of event geometry estimators to the initial-state kinematics of hard scattering in proton–lead collisions. This analysis uses dijets as a proxy for the parton–parton scattering configuration, correlating it with event geometry estimators, namely the energy deposited in the Zero-Degree Calorimeter and the transverse energy recorded in the Forward Calorimeter in the Pb-going direction. The analysis uses data recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider with a nucleon–nucleon center-of-mass energy of 8.16 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 56 nb − 1 . The jets are measured within the pseudorapidity interval −2.8 < η < 4.5, where positive η values correspond to the direction of the proton beam. Results are presented as a function of the Bjorken-x of the parton originating from the proton, xp . Both event geometry estimators are found to be dependent on xp , with the energy deposited in the Zero-Degree Calorimeter about six times less sensitive to xp compared with the transverse energy deposited in the Forward Calorimeter.

Aad, G↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraining Present‐Day Anthropogenic Total Iron Emissions Using Model and Observations

Abstract Iron emissions from human activities, such as oil combustion and smelting, affect the Earth's climate and marine ecosystems. These emissions are difficult to quantify accurately due to a lack of observations, particularly in remote ocean regions. In this study, we used long‐term, near‐source observations in areas with a dominance of anthropogenic iron emissions in various parts of the world to better estimate the total amount of anthropogenic iron emissions. We also used a statistical source apportionment method to identify the anthropogenic components and their sub‐sources from bulk aerosol observations in the United States. We find that the estimates of anthropogenic iron emissions are within a factor of 3 in most regions compared to previous inventory estimates. Under‐ or overestimation varied by region and depended on the number of sites, interannual variability, and the statistical filter choice. Smelting‐related iron emissions are overestimated by a factor of 1.5 in East Asia compared to previous estimates. More long‐term iron observations and the consideration of the influence of dust and wildfires could help reduce the uncertainty in anthropogenic iron emissions estimates.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neural simulation-based inference of the neutron star equation of state directly from telescope spectra

Neutron stars provide a unique opportunity to study strongly interacting matter under extreme density conditions. The intricacies of matter inside neutron stars and their equation of state are not directly visible, but determine bulk properties, such as mass and radius, which affect the star's thermal X-ray emissions. However, the telescope spectra of these emissions are also affected by the stellar distance, hydrogen column, and effective surface temperature, which are not always well-constrained. Uncertainties on these nuisance parameters must be accounted for when making a robust estimation of the equation of state. In this study, we develop a novel methodology that, for the first time, can infer the full posterior distribution of both the equation of state and nuisance parameters directly from telescope observations. This method relies on the use of neural likelihood estimation, in which normalizing flows use samples of simulated telescope data to learn the likelihood of the neutron star spectra as a function of these parameters, coupled with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods to efficiently sample from the corresponding posterior distribution. Our approach surpasses the accuracy of previous methods, improves the interpretability of the results by providing access to the full posterior distribution, and naturally scales to a growing number of neutron star observations expected in the coming years.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Polynomial-time preparation of low-temperature Gibbs states for two-dimensional toric code

In this work, we propose a polynomial-time algorithm for preparing the Gibbs state of the two-dimensional toric code Hamiltonian at any temperature, starting from any initial state, significantly improving upon prior estimates that suggested exponential scaling with inverse temperature. We prove that fast mixing at low temperature for the two-dimensional toric code can be achieved by augmenting local jump operators with simple global jump operators, which enable efficient transitions between logical sectors. To establish tight lower bounds on the spectral gap, we introduce a new reduction method that eventually maps the problem to estimating the spectral gap of a perturbed graph Laplacian on a stair graph. Our proof also shows that the Lindblad dynamics with a digitally implemented low-temperature local Davies generator is able to efficiently drive the quantum state toward the ground state manifold.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

GALIC: hybrid multi-qubitwise pauli grouping for quantum computing measurement

Abstract Observable estimation is a core primitive in NISQ-era algorithms targeting quantum chemistry applications. To reduce the state preparation overhead required for accurate estimation, recent works have proposed various simultaneous measurement schemes to lower estimator variance. Two primary grouping schemes have been proposed: full commutativity (FC) and qubit-wise commutativity (QWC), with no compelling means of interpolation. In this work we propose a generalized framework for designing and analyzing context-aware hybrid FC/QWC commutativity relations. We use our framework to propose a noise-and-connectivity aware grouping strategy: Generalized backend-Aware pauLI Commutation (GALIC). We demonstrate how GALIC interpolates between FC and QWC, maintaining estimator accuracy in Hamiltonian estimation while lowering variance by an average of 20% compared to QWC. We also explore the design space of near-term quantum devices using the GALIC framework, specifically comparing device noise levels and connectivity. We find that error suppression has a more than 10 × larger impact on device-aware estimator variance than qubit connectivity with even larger correlation differences in estimator biases.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heterogeneous estimations of non-pharmaceutical mitigation behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of human behavior in mitigating the spread of disease. Nonetheless, human behavior is often overlooked in models of disease spread, particularly by underutilizing real-world data. We address this by estimating probabilities that individuals engage in behaviors that influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk during the COVID-19 pandemic, between September 2020 and June 2022. These behaviors include wearing a mask, using public transportation, spending time with others, avoiding contact with others, and going to work. Our estimates account for the age and sex of individuals and are generated for every county in the United States. We utilized multiple open-source datasets and United States Census data to produce these estimates. Multiple datasets were used for validation, showing our estimates demonstrated comparable accuracy and robustness. Our estimates aid in understanding human behavior dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic and could be used to inform monthly or longer-term behavior in simulations of COVID-19. Moreover, the methods presented can be applied to other behaviors and features for future simulations of infectious disease.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

pnnl/MCRASTA

McRasta (Markov Chain Rate and State Analysis) was developed to estimate parameter uncertainty in constitutive friction models via Bayesian inverse and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.

Fichera, Marissa [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simple self-consistent method for excited states in density functional theory to characterize defect-derived behavior in wide-band-gap-based microelectronic materials

This final report summarizes the results of the Laboratory Direct Research and Development (LDRD) Project Number 229740. Wide band gap semiconductors such as gallium nitride (GaN) have features highly desirable for multiple mission electronic applications. Realization of their potential requires atomic-scale understanding of electronic behavior. The principal experimental tools for electronically probing defects in GaN are chemically undifferentiating and lack a practical theoretical counterpart needed to identify and characterize specific defects. This project investigated whether a simple idea for modeling defect excited states and their associated photoluminescence (PL) energies is viable, as a path to accelerate the understanding of defect behavior and gain valuable insights into engineering new electronic materials and devices. The research implemented a non-self-consistent total-energy evaluation of a Koopmans-type estimation of an excited electronic state energy in density functional theory (DFT) calculations, and proceeded to design, implement, and assess a self-consistent method for computing excited states based upon an OCcupation-Constrained-DFT (occ-DFT). The occ-DFT was verified in test calculations of defect excited states and validated against well-characterized PL data for 3d transition metal defects in GaN. The method proved stable and robust in computing excited states and gave accurate predictions compared to experimental PL data. The combined ground state/excited-state capability proved capable of chemically differentiating defect species in GaN. In application to 3d dopants in GaN, we reinterpreted extensive experimental literature, proposed new defects as prospective candidates for use in quantum information applications, and outlined design strategies to create and exploit these potentially useful functional defects in GaN.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Current-based metrology with two-terminal mesoscopic conductors

The traditional approach to quantum parameter estimation focuses on the quantum state, deriving fundamental bounds on precision through the quantum Fisher information. In most experimental settings, however, performing arbitrary quantum measurements is highly unfeasible. In open quantum systems, an alternative approach to metrology involves the measurement of stochastic currents flowing from the system to its environment. However, the present understanding of current-based metrology is mostly limited to Markovian master equations. Considering a parameter estimation problem in a two-terminal mesoscopic conductor, we identify the key elements that determine estimation precision within the Landauer-Büttiker formalism. Crucially, this approach allows us to address arbitrary coupling and temperature regimes. Furthermore, we obtain analytical results for the precision in linear-response and zero-temperature regimes. For the specific parameter estimation task that we consider, we demonstrate that the boxcar transmission function is optimal for current-based metrology in all parameter regimes.

Landauer formula↗
DOE OSTI2025

Off forward non- s -channel helicity conserving contributions to exclusive vector quarkonium production from the spin dependent BFKL Pomeron

A novel contribution to off forward, exclusive vector quarkonium production, γ(*)+p → V+p, at high energy is derived which corresponds to a t-channel exchange of a Balitsky-Fadin-Kuraev-Lipatov (BFKL) hard Pomeron, with a helicity flip of the proton. This “spin-dependent BFKL Pomeron” is required in a consistent expansion in powers of the momentum transfer t ≈−Δ$^{2}_{⊥}$ beyond first order. The spin-dependent Pomeron violates s-channel helicity conservation at O(Δ$^{2}_{⊥}$), and beyond. Expanding to leading twist only, it corresponds to generalized parton distributions E g (x,t) for vanishing skewness. We derive explicit expressions for the eikonal BFKL amplitudes, to all orders in dipole size times momentum transfer, for all helicity configurations of the particles in the initial and final states. We also provide numerical estimates of the helicity flip two gluon exchange amplitude at moderate x from a light cone quark model of the proton. The spin dependent BFKL Pomeron could, in principle, be discovered via double spin asymmetries in e+p → e+p+J/ψ with a transversely polarized proton and longitudinally polarized electron in the initial state.

Deep inelastic scattering↗