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At least 163 records · Page 9

Statistical analysis of the chemical attribution signatures of 3-methylfentanyl and its methods of production

Chemical attribution of the origin of an illegal drug is a key component of forensic efforts aimed at combating illicit and clandestine manufacture of drugs and pharmaceuticals. The results of these studies yield detailed information on synthesis byproducts, reagents, and precursors that can be used to identify the method of manufacture. Here in the present work, chemical attribution signatures (CAS) associated with the synthesis of the analgesic 3-methylfentanyl, N-(3-methyl-1-phenethylpiperidin-4-yl)-N-phenylpropanamide, were investigated. Eighteen crude samples from six synthesis methods were generated, the analysis of which was used to identify signatures (i.e. chemical compounds) that were important in the discrimination of synthetic route. These methods were carefully selected to minimize the use of scheduled precursors, complicated laboratory equipment, number of steps, and extreme reaction conditions. Using gas and liquid chromatographies combined with time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC-QTOF and LC-QTOF) over 160 distinct species were monitored. Lastly, analysis of this combined data set was performed using modern machine learning techniques capable of reducing the size of the data set, prioritizing key chemical attribution signatures, and identifying the method of production for blindly synthesized 3-methylfentanyl materials.

3-methylfentanyl↗

Predicting Catalytic Pyrolysis Aromatic Selectivity from Pyrolysis Vapor Composition Using Mass Spectra Coupled with Statistical Analysis

The behavior of fast pyrolysis (FP) and catalytic FP (CFP) of 20 renewable feedstocks was studied in a microscale reactor with molecular beam mass spectral analysis of products generated. A partial least-squares (PLS) model was constructed based on the FP vapor spectra that predicts the aromatic selectivity when upgrading over a ZSM-5 catalyst. Additionally, principal component analysis of both FP and CFP spectra was performed for comprehensive spectral analysis. This work highlighted the value of vapor-phase mass spectral screening to predict the subsequent feedstock performance and demonstrated that the quantity of coke deposited on the catalyst is not a reliable measure of catalyst deactivation when the feedstock type is varied.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Statistical Analysis of Trans‐Ionospheric Pulse Pairs and Inferences on Their Characteristics

Trans-ionospheric pulse pairs (TIPPs), first observed in 1993, are signatures of in-cloud lightning discharges observed by satellite-based broadband very high frequency (VHF) receivers. It has been definitively shown that TIPPs are the space-based signatures of compact intracloud discharges (CIDs), and that the associated pair of pulses that comprise a TIPP result from the direct VHF pulse from the discharge, followed by a pulse reflected from the Earth's surface. However, the ratio of the peak amplitudes of these two pulses can vary widely, with the second pulse often having considerably higher peak amplitude than the first. This observation has not been satisfactorily explained. Using data collected from geostationary orbit by the Radio Frequency Sensor (RFS) and matched to locations reported by the Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360), we assemble the largest database to date of 76,348 TIPPs with associated location, altitude, and amplitude ratio of the two pulses in the TIPP. We show that the amplitude ratio of TIPPs is strongly correlated to the altitude of the associated discharges and the geometry of the source location with respect to the Earth's surface and the receiver. These observations strongly suggest that the difference in amplitude of the two pulses is driven by a nondipole radiated beam pattern that is dependent on the polarity of the CID, velocity of the current wavefront, and viewing angle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Statistical analysis of Al III and C III ] emission lines as virial black hole mass estimators in quasars

We test the usefulness of the intermediate ionisation lines Al IIIλ1860 and C III]λ1909 as reliable virial mass estimators for quasars. We identified a sample of 309 quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 16 (SDSS DR16) in the redshift range 1.2 ≤ z ≤ 1.4 that have [O II]λ3728 recorded on the same spectrum as Al IIIλ1860, Si III]λ1892, and C III]λ1909. We set the systemic quasar redshift using careful measurements of [O II]λ3728. We then classified the sources as Population A (Pop. A), extreme Population A (Pop. xA), and Population B (Pop. B), and analysed the 1900 Å blend using multi-component models to look for systematic line shifts of Al IIIλ1860 and C III]λ1909 along the quasar main sequence. We do not find significant shifts of the Al IIIλ1860 line peak in Pop. B or in the vast majority of Pop. A. For Pop. xA, a small median blueshift of -250 km s -1 was observed, motivating a decomposition of the Al III line profile into a virialised component centred at rest frame and a blueshifted component for an outflow emission. For Pop. B objects, we proved the empirical necessity to fit a redshifted very broad component, clearly seen in C III], and analysed the physical implications on a Pop. B composite spectrum using CLOUDY simulations. We find consistent black hole mass estimations using Al III and C III] as virial estimators for the bulk of Pop. A. Al III (and even C III]) is a reliable virial black hole mass estimator for Pop. A and Pop. B objects. The Pop. xA sources deserve special attention due to the significant blueshifted excess observed in the line profile of Al III, although it is not as large as the excess observed in C IVλ1549.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Measurement of ion and electron temperatures in plasma blobs by using an improved ion sensitive probe system and statistical analysis methods

We have measured ion temperature as well as electron temperature in plasma blobs observed in a linear plasma device by using an improved ion sensitive probe. Current-voltage characteristics of the ion sensitive probe inside and outside plasma blobs were re-constructed with a conditional sampling method. It is clearly found that both ion and electron temperatures in plasma blobs decrease more slowly in a cross-field direction than those in a bulk plasma without plasma blobs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Statistical analysis of the ion beam production in a self magnetically insulated diode

The paper presents the results of a study on shot to shot variation in energy density of an ion beam formed by a self-magnetically insulated diode with an explosive emission cathode. The experiments were carried out with the TEMP-4M accelerator operating in double-pulse mode: plasma formation occurs during the first pulse (negative polarity, 300–500 ns, 100–150 kV), and ion extraction and acceleration during the second pulse (positive polarity, 150 ns, 250–300 kV). Crucially, it was found that the standard deviation of energy density does not exceed 11%, whilst the same variation for ion current density was 20%–30%, suggesting the presence of neutrals in the beam. This idea is further supported by the fact that ion current density is only weakly dependant on the accelerating voltage and other output parameters of the accelerator (coefficient of determination < 0.3), whilst the correlation between the energy density of the beam and the output parameters is strong (coefficient of determination > 0.9). We attribute the neutral component as being due to charge exchange between accelerated ions and neutral molecules from a neutral layer near the anode surface. Implementation using a self-magnetically insulated diode with an explosive-emission cathode, having an operational lifetime of up to 10{sup 7} shots, has promising prospects for various technological applications.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Statistical analysis of variations in impurity ion heating at reconnection events in the Madison Symmetric Torus

The connection between impurity ion heating and other physical processes in the plasma is evaluated by studying variations in the amount of ion heating at reconnection events in the Madison Symmetric Torus (MST). Correlation of the change in ion temperature with individual tearing mode amplitudes indicates that the edge-resonant modes are better predictors for the amount of global ion heating than the core-resonant modes. There is also a strong correlation between ion heating and current profile relaxation. Simultaneous measurements of the ion temperature at different toroidal locations reveal, for the first time, a toroidal asymmetry to the ion heating in MST. These results present challenges for existing heating theories and suggest a stronger connection between edge-resonant tearing modes, current profile relaxation, and ion heating than has been previously thought.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Statistical analysis of the dynamics of secondary electrons in the flare of a high-voltage beam-type discharge

In the present work, results of investigations into the dynamics of secondary electrons with helium atoms in the presence of the reverse electric field arising in the flare of a high-voltage pulsed beam-type discharge and leading to degradation of the primary electron beam are presented. The electric field in the discharge of this type at moderate pressures can reach several hundred V/cm and leads to considerable changes in the kinetics of secondary electrons created in the process of propagation of the electron beam generated in the accelerating gap with a grid anode. Moving in the accelerating electric field toward the anode, secondary electrons create the so-called compensating current to the anode. The character of electron motion and the compensating current itself are determined by the ratio of the field strength to the concentration of atoms (E/n). The energy and angular spectra of secondary electrons are calculated by the Monte Carlo method for different ratios E/n of the electric field strength to the helium atom concentration. The motion of secondary electrons with threshold energy is studied for inelastic collisions of helium atoms and differential analysis is carried out of the collisional processes causing energy losses of electrons in helium for different E/n values. The mechanism of creation and accumulation of slow electrons as a result of inelastic collisions of secondary electrons with helium atoms and selective population of metastable states of helium atoms is considered. It is demonstrated that in a wide range of E/n values the motion of secondary electrons in the beam-type discharge flare has the character of drift. At E/n values characteristic for the discharge of the given type, the drift velocity of these electrons is calculated and compared with the available experimental data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

MANOVA statistical analysis of inorganic compounds in groundwater Indonesia

The present study was carried out to determine levels of inorganic compounds contained in the ground water and Reverse Osmosis (RO) water filtration result. The data in groundwater samples was collected from Bekasi, Tangerang and Jakarta in Indonesia. A total of 30 samples were collected and analyzed for the determine Cadmium (Cd), Chromium (Cr), Manganese (Mn), Cyanide (CN) and Lead (Pb). The results of the study revealed that in groundwater, the average of Cd 0.0058 mg / l, Mn 1.5233 mg / l, Cr 0.0127 mg/l, Pb 0.0060 mg / l, and CN 0.0040 mg / l. The level of RO result were: Cd 0.0027 mg / l, Mn 0.1767 mg / l, Cr 0.0024 mg / l, Pb 0.0021 mg / l, and CN 0.0023 mg / l . This means that Cd and Mn in ground water were higher than the values recommended by PAK-EPA and WHO or the standard of Indonesian Ministry of Health. But after filtration Reverse Osmosis (RO) Mn and Cd levels decreased to levels below the standardized value. By comparing of mean in MANOVA and nonparametric MANOVA in α=5%, there are differences in average levels of inorganic substances Mn, Cr, Cd, Pb, and CN between before and after RO filtration.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF DWARF GALAXIES AND THEIR GLOBULAR CLUSTERS IN THE LOCAL VOLUME

Although morphological classification of dwarf galaxies into early and late types can account for some of their origin and characteristics, this does not aid the study of their formation mechanism. Thus an objective classification using principal component analysis together with K means cluster analysis of these dwarf galaxies and their globular clusters (GCs) is carried out to overcome this problem. It is found that the classification of dwarf galaxies in the local volume is irrespective of their morphological indices. The more massive (M{sub V0} < -13.7) galaxies evolve through self-enrichment and harbor dynamically less evolved younger GCs, whereas fainter galaxies (M{sub V0} > - 13.7) are influenced by their environment in the star formation process.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Statistical analysis of magnetic divertor configuration influence on H-mode transitions

DIII-D plasmas are compared for two upper divertor configurations: with the outer strike point on the small angle slot (SAS) divertor target and with the outer strike point on the horizontal divertor target (HT). Scanning the vertical distance between the magnetic null point and the divertor target over a range 0.10–0.16 m is shown to increase the threshold power, $P_\mathrm{th}$, and edge plasma power, $P_\mathrm{Loss},$ for the low-to-high confinement (L–H) and H–L transitions respectively, by up to a factor of 1.4. The X-point height scans were performed at three L-mode core plasma line average electron densities, $\bar{n}_\mathrm{e} = $ 1.2, 2.2 and 3.6 $\times 10^{19}\,\mathrm{m}^{-3}$, to investigate the density dependence of divertor magnetic configuration influence on $P_\mathrm{th}$. The X-point height, $Z_\textrm{x-pt}$, was further extended across the range 0.16–0.22 m with the more open HT divertor configuration, for which a clear decrease in $P_\mathrm{th}$ with increasing $Z_\textrm{x-pt}$ is observed. The dependence of $P_\textrm{th}$ on divertor magnetic geometry is further investigated using a time-dependent probability density function (PDF) model and information geometry to elucidate the roles played by pedestal plasma turbulence and perpendicular velocity flows. The degree of stochasticity of the plasma turbulence is observed to be sensitive to the plasma heating rate. The calculated square of the information rate shows changes in the relative density fluctuations and perpendicular velocity PDFs begin 2–5 ms prior to the L–H transition for three plasmas; providing a crucial measurement of the dynamic timescale of external transport barrier formation. Additionally, both information length and rate provide potential predictors of the L–H transition for these plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A robust statistical analysis of the role of hydropower on the system electricity price and price volatility

Abstract Hydroelectric power (hydropower) is unique in that it can function as both a conventional source of electricity and as backup storage (pumped hydroelectric storage and large reservoir storage) for providing energy in times of high demand on the grid (S. Rehman, L M Al-Hadhrami, and M M Alam), (2015 Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews , 44 , 586–98). This study examines the impact of hydropower on system electricity price and price volatility in the region served by the New England Independent System Operator (ISONE) from 2014-2020 (ISONE, ISO New England Web Services API v1.1 .” https://webservices.iso-ne.com/docs/v1.1/ , 2021. Accessed: 2021-01-10). We perform a robust holistic analysis of the mean and quantile effects, as well as the marginal contributing effects of hydropower in the presence of solar and wind resources. First, the price data is adjusted for deterministic temporal trends, correcting for seasonal, weekend, and diurnal effects that may obscure actual representative trends in the data. Using multiple linear regression and quantile regression, we observe that hydropower contributes to a reduction in the system electricity price and price volatility. While hydropower has a weak impact on decreasing price and volatility at the mean, it has greater impact at extreme quantiles (>70th percentile). At these higher percentiles, we find that hydropower provides a stabilizing effect on price volatility in the presence of volatile resources such as wind. We conclude with a discussion of the observed relationship between hydropower and system electricity price and volatility.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Statistical Analysis of Abnormal Electric Power Grid Behavior

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is developing a technique to analyze Phasor Measurement Unit data to identify typical patterns, atypical events and precursors to a blackout or other undesirable event. The approach combines a data-driven multivariate analysis with an engineering-model approach. The method identifies atypical events, provides a plane English description of the event, and the capability to use drill-down graphics for detailed investigations. The tool can be applied to the entire grid, individual organizations (e.g. TVA, BPA), or specific substations (e.g., TVA_CUMB). The tool is envisioned for (1) event investigations, (2) overnight processing to generate a Morning Report that characterizes the previous days activity with respect to previous activity over the previous 10-30 days, and (3) potentially near-real-time operation to support the grid operators. This paper presents the current status of the tool and illustrations of its application to real world PMU data collected in three 10-day periods in 2007.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Statistical analysis of the fluctuations of an initial-state model with independently distributed hot spots

Abstract We determine the uncorrelated modes that characterize the fluctuations in a semi-realistic model for the initial state of high-energy nuclear collisions, consisting of hot spots whose positions are distributed independently. Varying the number of hot spots, their size, and the weights with which they contribute to the initial state, we find that the parameter that has the largest influence on the relative importance of the fluctuation modes is the source size, with more extended hot spots leading to a more marked predominance of the principal modes.

Borghini, Nicolas↗