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Results for “statistical inference”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Relating galaxies across different redshift to study galaxy evolution

We propose a general framework leveraging the galaxy–halo connection to link galaxies observed at different redshift in a statistical way, and use the link to infer the redshift evolution of the galaxy population. Our tests based on hydrodynamic simulations show that our method can accurately recover the stellar mass assembly histories up to z ∼ 3 for present star-forming and quiescent galaxies down to 10 10 h −1 M ⊙ . Applying the method to observational data shows that the stellar mass evolution of the main progenitors of galaxies depends strongly on the properties of descendants, such as stellar mass, halo mass, and star formation states. Galaxies hosted by low-mass groups/haloes at the present time have since z ∼ 1.8 grown their stellar mass ∼2.5 times as fast as those hosted by massive clusters. This dependence on host halo mass becomes much weaker for descendant galaxies with similar star formation states. Star-forming galaxies grow about 2–4 times faster than their quiescent counterparts since z ∼ 1.8. Both TNG and EAGLE simulations overpredict the progenitor stellar mass at z > 1, particularly for low-mass descendants.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tunable Microwave Conductance of Nanodomains in Ferroelectric PbZr 0.2 Ti 0.8 O 3 Thin Film

Ferroelectric materials exhibit spontaneous polarization that can be switched by electric field. Beyond traditional applications as nonvolatile capacitive elements, the interplay between polarization and electronic transport in ferroelectric thin films has enabled a path to neuromorphic device applications involving resistive switching. A fundamental challenge, however, is that finite electronic conductivity may introduce considerable power dissipation and perhaps destabilize ferroelectricity itself. In this work, tunable microwave frequency electronic response of domain walls injected into ferroelectric lead zirconate titanate (PbZr 0.2 Ti 0.8 O 3 ) on the level of a single nanodomain is revealed. Tunable microwave response is detected through first-order reversal curve spectroscopy combined with scanning microwave impedance microscopy measurements taken near 3 GHz. Contributions of film interfaces to the measured AC conduction through subtractive milling, where the film exhibited improved conduction properties after removal of surface layers, are investigated. Using statistical analysis and finite element modeling, we inferred that the mechanism of tunable microwave conductance is the variable area of the domain wall in the switching volume. These observations open the possibilities for ferroelectric memristors or volatile resistive switches, localized to several tens of nanometers and operating according to well-defined dynamics under an applied field.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

A microscopic and crystallographic study of proton irradiated alloy 718

Solution annealing and age hardening are important processes for achieving good engineering and chemical properties of alloy 718. The composition of alloy 718 also plays an important role as it can affect both mechanical (γ”- and γ’-phase formation) and irradiation behaviors. Therefore, in this study five different sets of alloy 718 samples with two different chemical compositions were fabricated using different processing conditions and irradiated up to 4 dpa. Based on the effects of irradiation on the microstructural data of γ”- and γ’-phases, irradiation-induced dislocation statistics, and crystallographic data, it can be inferred that the samples processed at high solution annealing temperature (1093°C) behave better under irradiation compared to the samples processed at low solution annealing temperatures (945 and 1065°C).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

DESI 2024 II: sample definitions, characteristics, and two-point clustering statistics

We present the samples of galaxies and quasars used for DESI 2024 cosmological analyses, drawn from the DESI Data Release 1 (DR1). We describe the construction of largescale structure (LSS) catalogs from these samples, which include matched sets of synthetic reference ‘randoms’ and weights that account for variations in the observed density of the samples due to experimental design and varying instrument performance. We detail how we correct for variations in observational completeness, the input ‘target’ densities due to imaging systematics, and the ability to confidently measure redshifts from DESI spectra. We then summarize how remaining uncertainties in the corrections can be translated to systematic uncertainties for particular analyses. We describe the weights added to maximize the signalto-noise of DESI DR1 2-point clustering measurements. We detail measurement pipelines applied to the LSS catalogs that obtain 2-point clustering measurements in configuration and Fourier space. The resulting 2-point measurements depend on window functions and normalization constraints particular to each sample, and we present the corrections required to match models to the data. We compare the configuration- and Fourier-space 2-point clustering of the data samples to that recovered from simulations of DESI DR1 and find they are, generally, in statistical agreement to within 2% in the inferred real-space over-density field. The LSS catalogs, 2-point measurements, and their covariance matrices will be released publicly with DESI DR1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prime VI

SAND2025-03757O Prime VI is a distribution-of-disease outbreak model calibration code based on variational inference. It accompanies a publication for submission to Statistics in Medicine journal, and the code will be maintained for open-source use on Sandia's GitLab. The software provides methods for calibrating an epidemiological model to measured case-count data for a multitude of correlated spatial regions. The code solves a Bayesian inverse problem for model calibration where the posterior over-model parameters are approximated through a custom implementation of variational inference. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Safta, Cosmin↗
DOE OSTI2022

Single Gaussian process method for arbitrary tokamak regimes with a statistical analysis

Abstract Gaussian process regression is a Bayesian method for inferring profiles based on input data. The technique is increasing in popularity in the fusion community due to its many advantages over traditional fitting techniques including intrinsic uncertainty quantification and robustness to over-fitting. This work investigates the use of a new method, the change-point method, for handling the varying length scales found in different tokamak regimes. The use of the Student’s t-distribution for the Bayesian likelihood probability is also investigated and shown to be advantageous in providing good fits in profiles with many outliers. To compare different methods, synthetic data generated from analytic profiles is used to create a database enabling a quantitative statistical comparison of which methods perform the best. Using a full Bayesian approach with the change-point method, Matérn kernel for the prior probability, and Student’s t-distribution for the likelihood is shown to give the best results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Combination of cluster number counts and two-point correlations: validation on mock Dark Energy Survey

ABSTRACT We present a method of combining cluster abundances and large-scale two-point correlations, namely galaxy clustering, galaxy–cluster cross-correlations, cluster autocorrelations, and cluster lensing. This data vector yields comparable cosmological constraints to traditional analyses that rely on small-scale cluster lensing for mass calibration. We use cosmological survey simulations designed to resemble the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES-Y1) data to validate the analytical covariance matrix and the parameter inferences. The posterior distribution from the analysis of simulations is statistically consistent with the absence of systematic biases detectable at the precision of the DES-Y1 experiment. We compare the χ2 values in simulations to their expectation and find no significant difference. The robustness of our results against a variety of systematic effects is verified using a simulated likelihood analysis of DES-Y1-like data vectors. This work presents the first-ever end-to-end validation of a cluster abundance cosmological analysis on galaxy catalogue level simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraints on S 8 from a full-scale and full-shape analysis of redshift-space clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing in BOSS

ABSTRACT We present a novel simulation-based cosmological analysis of galaxy–galaxy lensing and galaxy redshift-space clustering. Compared to analysis methods based on perturbation theory, our simulation-based approach allows us to probe a much wider range of scales, $0.4 \, h^{-1} \, \mathrm{Mpc}$ to $63 \, h^{-1} \, \mathrm{Mpc}$, including highly non-linear scales, and marginalizes over astrophysical effects such as assembly bias. We apply this framework to data from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey LOWZ sample cross-correlated with state-of-the-art gravitational lensing catalogues from the Kilo Degree Survey and the Dark Energy Survey. We show that gravitational lensing and redshift-space clustering when analysed over a large range of scales place tight constraints on the growth-of-structure parameter $S_8 = \sigma _8 \sqrt{\Omega _{\rm m} / 0.3}$. Overall, we infer S8 = 0.792 ± 0.022 when analysing the combination of galaxy–galaxy lensing and projected galaxy clustering and S8 = 0.771 ± 0.027 for galaxy redshift-space clustering. These findings highlight the potential constraining power of full-scale studies over studies analysing only large scales and also showcase the benefits of analysing multiple large-scale structure surveys jointly. Our inferred values for S8 fall below the value inferred from the CMB, S8 = 0.834 ± 0.016. While this difference is not statistically significant by itself, our results mirror other findings in the literature whereby low-redshift large-scale structure probes infer lower values for S8 than the CMB, the so-called S8-tension.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of off-shell Higgs boson production in the $H^*\rightarrow ZZ\rightarrow 4\ell$ decay channel using a neural simulation-based inference technique in 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of off-shell Higgs boson production in the $H^*\to ZZ\to 4\ell$ decay channel is presented. The measurement uses 140 fb −1 of proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV collected by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider and supersedes the previous result in this decay channel using the same dataset. The data analysis is performed using a neural simulation-based inference method, which builds per-event likelihood ratios using neural networks. The observed (expected) off-shell Higgs boson production signal strength in the $ZZ\to 4\ell$ decay channel at 68% CL is $0.87^{+0.75}_{-0.54}$ ($1.00^{+1.04}_{-0.95}$ ). The evidence for off-shell Higgs boson production using the $ZZ\to 4\ell$ decay channel has an observed (expected) significance of 2.5σ (1.3σ). The expected result represents a significant improvement relative to that of the previous analysis of the same dataset, which obtained an expected significance of 0.5σ. When combined with the most recent ATLAS measurement in the $ZZ\to 2\ell 2\nu$ decay channel, the evidence for off-shell Higgs boson production has an observed (expected) significance of 3.7σ (2.4σ). The off-shell measurements are combined with the measurement of on-shell Higgs boson production to obtain constraints on the Higgs boson total width. The observed (expected) value of the Higgs boson width at 68% CL is $4.3^{+2.7}_{-1.9}$ ($4.1^{+3.5}_{-3.4}$ ) MeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A hierarchical Bayesian model for background variation in radiation source localization

In this paper, we apply a new model to account for varying background radiation in radiological source localization. We present a hierarchical Bayesian model that simultaneously infers background and source location parameters without requiring separate estimation of the background radiation at each detector location. We employ a simplified photon transport model to reduce the computational expense of Bayesian model calibration. Furthermore, we demonstrate the model accuracy by localizing a cesium-137 source in a simulated city block, and we analyze experimental field measurements with varying background. In both cases, the model provides sufficient fidelity that we can locate the source while simultaneously estimating background radiation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Establishing temperature from radiance of dynamically compressed metals

Precise temperature determination is a significant challenge in extreme environments of dynamic compression studies. How can radiance measurements taken in high-pressure shock experiments constrain temperature in a meaningful and physically consistent way? Experiments maintaining sample compression against a transparent window can be tailored to present a uniform measurement area with uncertain spectral emissivity. We compare several methods to analyze radiance collected at multiple wavelengths, applying statistical methods and physical principles to improve temperature inference. With proper radiance collection and analysis, dynamic temperature uncertainties become comparable to thermomechanical ambiguities of the emitting surface.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Combining compositional data sets introduces error in covariance network reconstruction

Microbial communities are diverse biological systems that include taxa from across multiple kingdoms of life. Notably, interactions between bacteria and fungi play a significant role in determining community structure. However, these statistical associations across kingdoms are more difficult to infer than intra-kingdom associations due to the nature of the data involved using standard network inference techniques. We quantify the challenges of cross-kingdom network inference from both theoretical and practical points of view using synthetic and real-world microbiome data. We detail the theoretical issue presented by combining compositional data sets drawn from the same environment, e.g. 16S and ITS sequencing of a single set of samples, and we survey common network inference techniques for their ability to handle this error. We then test these techniques for the accuracy and usefulness of their intra- and inter-kingdom associations by inferring networks from a set of simulated samples for which a ground-truth set of associations is known. We show that while the two methods mitigate the error of cross-kingdom inference, there is little difference between techniques for key practical applications including identification of strong correlations and identification of possible keystone taxa (i.e. hub nodes in the network). Furthermore, we identify a signature of the error caused by transkingdom network inference and demonstrate that it appears in networks constructed using real-world environmental microbiome data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic inference of the structure and orbit of Milky Way satellites with semi-analytic modelling

Semi-analytic modelling furnishes an efficient avenue for characterizing dark matter haloes associated with satellites of Milky Way-like systems, as it easily accounts for uncertainties arising from halo-to-halo variance, the orbital disruption of satellites, baryonic feedback, and the stellar-to-halo mass (SMHM) relation. We use the SatGen semi-analytic satellite generator, which incorporates both empirical models of the galaxy–halo connection as well as analytic prescriptions for the orbital evolution of these satellites after accretion onto a host to create large samples of Milky Way-like systems and their satellites. By selecting satellites in the sample that match observed properties of a particular dwarf galaxy, we can infer arbitrary properties of the satellite galaxy within the cold dark matter paradigm. For the Milky Way’s classical dwarfs, we provide inferred values (with associated uncertainties) for the maximum circular velocity v max and the radius r max at which it occurs, varying over two choices of baryonic feedback model and two prescriptions for the SMHM relation. While simple empirical scaling relations can recover the median inferred value for v max and r max , this approach provides realistic correlated uncertainties and aids interpretability. We also demonstrate how the internal properties of a satellite’s dark matter profile correlate with its orbit, and we show that it is difficult to reproduce observations of the Fornax dwarf without strong baryonic feedback. Furthermore, the technique developed in this work is flexible in its application of observational data and can leverage arbitrary information about the satellite galaxies to make inferences about their dark matter haloes and population statistics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Machine Learning Framework to Deconstruct the Primary Drivers for Electricity Market Price Events

As the electricity grid is moving towards a 100% Renewable Energy Source Bulk Power Grid, the overall operations of the power system operations and electricity markets are changing. The electricity markets are not only dispatching resources economically but also taking into account various controllable actions like renewable curtailment, transmission congestion mitigation, and energy storage optimization to make sure the grid is operating reliably. As a result, price formations in electricity markets have become quite complex. Traditional root cause analysis and statistical approaches are rendered inapplicable to analyze and infer the main drivers behind price formation in the modern grid and markets with variable renewable energy (VRE). In this paper, we propose a machine learning analysis framework to deconstruct some primary drivers for price formation in modern electricity markets with high renewable energy and the outcomes can be utilized for various critical aspects of market design, renewable dispatch and curtailment, operations, and cyber-security applications. The framework can be applied to any ISO or market data and in this paper it is applied to open-source publicly available datasets from California Independent System Operator (CAISO) and ISO New England.

machine learning (ML), electricity markets, Renewa↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Optimal Sensor Augmentation Via Estimated Mutual Information

We consider the problem of designing a sensor network to most efficiently locate the source of a seismic event. The left panel of Figure 1 shows 982 possible sensor locations in a region of interest. The objective is to infer the unknown location of an earthquake, indicated by the gold dot for illustration purposes. Assume that three sensors have already been placed for data collection. Travel times of the P-wave from the source to the three sensors are observed and used to infer the unknown source location via a Bayesian statistical model described subsequently. The right panel of Figure 1 shows samples from the resulting posterior distribution for source location along with a posterior estimate of this location.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Combining compositional data sets introduces error in covariance network reconstruction

Microbial communities are diverse biological systems that include taxa from across multiple kingdoms of life. Notably, interactions between bacteria and fungi play a significant role in determining community structure. However, these statistical associations across kingdoms are more difficult to infer than intra-kingdom associations due to the nature of the data involved using standard network inference techniques. We quantify the challenges of cross-kingdom network inference from both theoretical and practical points of view using synthetic and real-world microbiome data. We detail the theoretical issue presented by combining compositional data sets drawn from the same environment, e.g. 16S and ITS sequencing of a single set of samples, and we survey common network inference techniques for their ability to handle this error. We then test these techniques for the accuracy and usefulness of their intra- and interkingdom associations by inferring networks from a set of simulated samples for which a ground-truth set of associations is known. We show that while the two methods mitigate the error of cross-kingdom inference, there is little difference between techniques for key practical applications including identification of strong correlations and identification of possible keystone taxa (i.e. hub nodes in the network). Furthermore, we identify a signature of the error caused by transkingdom network inference and demonstrate that it appears in networks constructed using real-world environmental microbiome data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale Flow for robust and optimal cosmological analysis

We propose Multiscale Flow, a generative Normalizing Flow that creates samples and models the field-level likelihood of two-dimensional cosmological data such as weak lensing. Multiscale Flow uses hierarchical decomposition of cosmological fields via a wavelet basis and then models different wavelet components separately as Normalizing Flows. The log-likelihood of the original cosmological field can be recovered by summing over the log-likelihood of each wavelet term. This decomposition allows us to separate the information from different scales and identify distribution shifts in the data such as unknown scale-dependent systematics. The resulting likelihood analysis can not only identify these types of systematics, but can also be made optimal, in the sense that the Multiscale Flow can learn the full likelihood at the field without any dimensionality reduction. We apply Multiscale Flow to weak lensing mock datasets for cosmological inference and show that it significantly outperforms traditional summary statistics such as power spectrum and peak counts, as well as machine learning–based summary statistics such as scattering transform and convolutional neural networks. We further show that Multiscale Flow is able to identify distribution shifts not in the training data such as baryonic effects. Finally, we demonstrate that Multiscale Flow can be used to generate realistic samples of weak lensing data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗