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151 records · Page 9

How extreme rainfall and failing dams unleashed the Derna flood disaster

On September 11, 2023, Storm Daniel unleashed unprecedented rainfall over the Wadi Derna watershed, triggering one of the most devastating floods in modern history, striking Derna, a coastal city in Libya. This study reconstructs the disaster using an integrated modeling approach that combines satellite imagery, hydrologic, hydraulic, and geotechnical simulations, machine learning, eyewitness accounts, and digital elevation data to assess the impact of cascading dam failures. Our findings reveal that the region’s dams, even if structurally sound, would have provided minimal protection against the extreme runoff. However, their failure unleashed a destructive surge wave, amplifying the disaster’s magnitude and devastation. Here, we show that the collapse of aging flood control infrastructures, compounded by inadequate risk assessment and emergency preparedness, dramatically escalated the disaster’s impact. Our findings underscore the urgent need for systematic dam safety evaluations, enhanced flood forecasting, and adaptive risk management strategies that address climate extremes and infrastructure vulnerabilities.

Hydrology↗

A broad-band VLF-burst associated with ring-current electrons

Frequency band broadening takes place just outside of the nighttime plasmasphere, where the density of cold plasma is known to be very low during the later phase of a geomagnetic storm. Instead of the gradual broadening of several hours duration, a burst type broadening of VLF emission lasting less than ten minutes was observed by Explorer 45 in a similar location. The magnetic field component of this emission is very weak and the frequency spreads below the local half electron cyclotron frequency. Corresponding enhancement of the anisotropic ring current electrons is also very sudden and limited below the order of 10 keV without significant velocity dispersion, in contrast to the gradual broadening events. The cause of this type of emission band spreading can be attributed to the generation of the quasielectrostatic whistler mode emission of short wavelength by hot bimaxwellian electrons surging into the domain of relatively low density magnetized cold plasma. The lack of energy dispersion in the enhanced electrons indicates that the inner edge of the plasma sheet, the source of these hot electrons, is not far from the location of this event.

Maeda, K.↗

Impacts of Hurricane Disturbance on Water Quality across the Aquatic Continuum of a Blackwater River to Estuary Complex

Hurricanes cause landscape-scale disturbances that affect biogeochemical cycling and water quality in coastal ecosystems. During Hurricane Irma’s passage through northern Florida, water movements driven by wind velocities up to 105 km h-1 caused a salinity peak in an estuary/blackwater river complex. Water quality was monitored across the 15 km site to detect the magnitude and duration of disturbance. Saline water intruded 15 km inland into a freshwater portion of the river that peaked at a salinity of 2 psu. Due to the volume of precipitation from the hurricane, significant runoff of freshwater and dissolved organic matter (DOM) caused a decrease in salinity, dissolved oxygen (DO), and Chlorophyll-a concentrations while increasing turbidity and fluorescent dissolved organic matter (fDOM). The disturbance caused rapid changes observed by in-situ water quality monitors over a 3-week period, but some effects persisted for longer periods as shown by 3-month weekly water sampling. This disturbance caused shifts in DOM loading, altered salinity dynamics, and reshaped landscapes due to wind and wave surge both in upland marsh and downstream estuary. Hurricane disturbance temporarily and abruptly alters the aquatic continuum, and observations of system response can help us understand the mechanisms associated with ecosystem resilience and recovery.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Direct and system effects of water ingestion into jet engine compresors

Water ingestion into aircraft-installed jet engines can arise both during take-off and flight through rain storms, resulting in engine operation with nearly saturated air-water droplet mixture flow. Each of the components of the engine and the system as a whole are affected by water ingestion, aero-thermally and mechanically. The greatest effects arise probably in turbo-machinery. Experimental and model-based results (of relevance to 'immediate' aerothermal changes) in compressors have been obtained to show the effects of film formation on material surfaces, centrifugal redistribution of water droplets, and interphase heat and mass transfer. Changes in the compressor performance affect the operation of the other components including the control and hence the system. The effects on the engine as a whole are obtained through engine simulation with specified water ingestion. The interest is in thrust, specific fuel consumption, surge margin and rotational speeds. Finally two significant aspects of performance changes, scalability and controllability, are discussed in terms of characteristic scales and functional relations.

Murthy, S. N. B.↗

Satellite accelerometer measurements of neutral density and winds during geomagnetic storms

A new thermospheric wind measurement technique is reported which is based on a Satellite Electrostatic Triaxial Accelerometer (SETA) system capable of accurately measuring accelerations in the satellite's in-track, cross-track and radial directions. Data obtained during two time periods are presented. The first data set describes cross-track winds measured between 170 and 210 km during a 5-day period (25 to 29 March 1979) of mostly high geomagnetic activity. In the second data set, cross-track winds and neutral densities from SETA and exospheric temperatures from the Millstone Hill incoherent scatter radar are examined during an isolated magnetic substorm occurring on 21 March 1979. A polar thermospheric wind circulation consisting of a two cell horizontal convection pattern is reflected in both sets of cross-track acceleration measurements. The density response is highly asymmetric with respect to its day/night behavior. Latitude structures of the density response at successive times following the substorm peak suggest the equatorward propagation of a disturbance with a phase speed between 300 and 600 m/s. A deep depression in the density at high latitudes (less than 70 deg) is evident in conjunction with this phenomenon. The more efficient propagation of the disturbance to lower latitudes during the night is probably due to the midnight surge effect.

Marcos, F. A.↗

"Coulombic Viscosity" In Granular Materials: Planetary and Astrophysical Implications

The term "Coulombic viscosity" is introduced here to define an empirically observed phenomenon from experiments conducted in both microgravity, and in ground-based 1-g conditions. In the latter case, a sand attrition device was employed to test the longevity of aeolian materials by creating two intersecting grain-circulation paths or cells that would lead to most of the grain energy being expended on grain-to-grain collisions (simulating dune systems). In the areas in the device where gravitationally-driven grain-slurries recycled the sand, the slurries moved with a boundary-layer impeded motion down the chamber walls. Excessive electrostatic charging of the grains during these experiments was prevented by the use of an a.c. corona (created by a Tesla coil) through which the grains passed on every cycle. This created both positive and negative ions which neutralized the triboelectrically-generated grain charges. When the corona was switched on, the velocity of the wall-attached slurries increased by a factor of two as approximately determined by direct observation. What appeared to be a freely-flowing slurry of grains impeded only by intergranular mechanical friction, had obviously been significantly retarded in its motion by electrostatic forces between the grains; with the charging reduced, the grains were able to move past one another without a flow "viscosity" imposed by the Coulombic intergranular forces. A similar phenomenon was observed during microgravity experiments aboard Space Shuttle in USML-1 & USML-2 spacelabs where freely-suspended clouds of sand were being investigated for their potential to for-m aggregates. In this environment, the grains were also charged electrostatically (by natural processes prior to flight), but were free from the intervention of gravity in their interactions. The grains were dispersed into dense clouds by bursts of air turbulence and allowed to form aggregates as the ballistic and turbulent motions damped out. During this very brief (30-60 sec) damping period, motion of the grains was observed to be retarded by the electrostatic interactions. The fact that the grains almost instantly formed aggregates was evidence that their ballistic motions had been constrained and redirected by the dipole-dipole interactions that led to filamentary aggregate development. Undoubtedly, the "Coulombic viscosity" of the cloud assisted in damping grain motion so rapidly. The electrostatically-induced grain-cloud viscosity or drag exerted on grain motion, is a complex function of three major parameters: charge magnitude, charge sign, and mean intergranular distance. The above experiments illustrate one particular type of granular behavior. The discussion here will therefore be restricted to drag relationships: (a) between grains that are naturally charged triboelectrically and thus exhibit dipole-dipole attractions between one another even if there are slight net charges present (which can be overwhelmed by dipole coupling at short distances), and (b) between grains that are densely spaced where the intergranular distance varies between zero and some value (usually tens or hundreds of grain diameters) that permits each grain to detect the dipole moment of another grain -- the distance is not so great that other grains appears as neutral electrical "singularities. I. Aeolian transport: During motion of grains in a saltation cloud (on Earth, Mars, or Venus), triboelectric charging must occur as a result of multiple grain contacts, and by friction with the entraining air. A situation might develop that is similar to the one described above in the attrition device: grain motion becoming significantly retarded (reduced flux) as grains find it increasingly difficult to either separate from the surface, or to pass one another without Coulombic retarding forces. A "Coulombic drag" will exist at flux initiation and increase with time to work in direct opposition to the aerodynamic drag that drives the grain motion. It is predicted that this will lead to an increase with time of both the aerodynamic and bed-dilatancy thresholds (3). Because of Paschen discharge effects in the martian atmosphere, the electrostatic charging in a saltation cloud may be partially abated, but this will lead to greater grain mobility, more charging, and thus to a charge-discharge steady state mediated by mechanical interactions. II. Dry colluvial systems: Sand avalanches on dunes, dry debris flows, talus flows, avalanches, and pyroclastic surges are examples of gravity-driven, dense granular flows where rock/grain fragmentation and grain-to-grain interactions cause triboelectrification (sometimes augmented by other electrical charging processes), and where the grain densities of the systems are such that strong dipole-dipole interactions between grains might be expected to be present. Because it is expected that the Coulombic forces between grains will cause a sluggishness or enhanced granular-flow viscosity, the motion of a grain mass will be retarded or damped so that this will assist, ultimately, in terminating the flow. The greatest Coulombic viscosity will be created in the most highly charged systems, which will also be the most energetic. Thus, grain flows have some tendency to be self-limiting by internal energy partitioning; gravitational potential is converted to Coulombic potential, which manifests itself as a drag force between the grains. III. Volcanic eruption plumes and impact ejecta curtains: The violence of these systems leads to powerful electrical charging of particulates. Lightning storms emanating from volcanic plumes are a testimony to the levels of charging. As pyroclastic grains interact forcefully and frequently within eruption plumes, it is reasonable to predict that the internal turbulent motions of the plume will be significantly damped by the Coulombic viscosity exerted by grain charges. Additional information is contained in the original.

Marshall, J. R.↗

Uncertainty in Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Hazard and Risk Estimates: Insights from RAFT, CHAZ, MIT, STORM, and CLIMADA

We synthesize five complementary tropical cyclone (TC) hazard frameworks—RAFT (physics-based machine learning), CHAZ and MIT (statistical–dynamical), STORM (fully statistical), and CLIMADA (observation-driven resampling)—to characterize uncertainty in wind-related TC metrics relevant to energy applications. All datasets and the IBTrACS observational record are harmonized to a common 6-hourly, 2.5° grid. We compare basin-wide and coastal properties using consistent definitions for TC frequency, mean and maximum intensity, 24-hour intensification, and 6-hour translation speed, and quantify agreement with Pearson r, RMSE, and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) alongside resampling-based confidence intervals. CLIMADA is included for basin context but excluded from coastal skill scoring because it resamples historical IBTrACS; if supplied with projected future tracks from an external hazard model, CLIMADA can be used to simulate future TC scenarios. Results show robust, cross-model signals: (i) a corridor of activity from the tropical Atlantic through the Caribbean into the Bahamas and western subtropical Atlantic; (ii) a meridional dipole in 24-hour intensification (low-latitude strengthening, subtropical weakening); and (iii) a transition from slower tropical motion to faster midlatitude translation. Coastal winds (mean and maximum) consistently cluster from the eastern Gulf into the Bahamas–western Atlantic transition. The largest structural spread occurs in the amplitude and footprint of lifetime maximum intensity and, secondarily, in translation speed; intensification exhibits similar central behavior across frameworks with variability in extremes. Translation speed shows the most uniform coastal agreement. These findings provide a decision envelope for wind-focused risk screening and clarify where uncertainty should be carried forward; wind-only results represent a lower bound on total hazard, motivating integration of surge and rainfall modules and a companion, asset-level damage analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗