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NASA NTRS2015

Development and Execution of the RUNSAFE Runway Safety Bayesian Belief Network Model

One focus area of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is to improve aviation safety. Runway safety is one such thrust of investigation and research. The two primary components of this runway safety research are in runway incursion (RI) and runway excursion (RE) events. These are adverse ground-based aviation incidents that endanger crew, passengers, aircraft and perhaps other nearby people or property. A runway incursion is the incorrect presence of an aircraft, vehicle or person on the protected area of a surface designated for the landing and take-off of aircraft; one class of RI events simultaneously involves two aircraft, such as one aircraft incorrectly landing on a runway while another aircraft is taking off from the same runway. A runway excursion is an incident involving only a single aircraft defined as a veer-off or overrun off the runway surface. Within the scope of this effort at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), generic RI, RE and combined (RI plus RE, or RUNSAFE) event models have each been developed and implemented as a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). Descriptions of runway safety issues from the literature searches have been used to develop the BBN models. Numerous considerations surrounding the process of developing the event models have been documented in this report. The event models were then thoroughly reviewed by a Subject Matter Expert (SME) panel through multiple knowledge elicitation sessions. Numerous improvements to the model structure (definitions, node names, node states and the connecting link topology) were made by the SME panel. Sample executions of the final RUNSAFE model have been presented herein for baseline and worst-case scenarios. Finally, a parameter sensitivity analysis for a given scenario was performed to show the risk drivers. The NASA and LaRC research in runway safety event modeling through the use of BBN technology is important for several reasons. These include: 1) providing a means to clearly understand the cause and effect patterns leading to safety issues, incidents and accidents, 2) enabling the prioritization of specialty areas needing more attention to improve aviation safety, and 3) enabling the identification of gaps within NASA's Aviation Safety funding portfolio

Green, Lawrence L.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Preparing for Mars: The Evolvable Mars Campaign 'Proving Ground' Approach

As the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) prepares to extend human presence beyond Low Earth Orbit, we are in the early stages of planning missions within the framework of an Evolvable Mars Campaign. Initial missions would be conducted in near-Earth cis-lunar space and would eventually culminate in extended duration crewed missions on the surface of Mars. To enable such exploration missions, critical technologies and capabilities must be identified, developed, and tested. NASA has followed a principled approach to identify critical capabilities and a "Proving Ground" approach is emerging to address testing needs. The Proving Ground is a period subsequent to current International Space Station activities wherein exploration-enabling capabilities and technologies are developed and the foundation is laid for sustained human presence in space. The Proving Ground domain essentially includes missions beyond Low Earth Orbit that will provide increasing mission capability while reducing technical risks. Proving Ground missions also provide valuable experience with deep space operations and support the transition from "Earth-dependence" to "Earth-independence" required for sustainable space exploration. A Technology Development Assessment Team identified a suite of critical technologies needed to support the cadence of exploration missions. Discussions among mission planners, vehicle developers, subject-matter-experts, and technologists were used to identify a minimum but sufficient set of required technologies and capabilities. Within System Maturation Teams, known challenges were identified and expressed as specific performance gaps in critical capabilities, which were then refined and activities required to close these critical gaps were identified. Analysis was performed to identify test and demonstration opportunities for critical technical capabilities across the Proving Ground spectrum of missions. This suite of critical capabilities is expected to provide the foundation required to enable a variety of possible destinations and missions consistent with the Evolvable Mars Campaign.. The International Space Station will be used to the greatest extent possible for exploration capability and technology development. Beyond this, NASA is evaluating a number of options for Proving Ground missions. An "Asteroid Redirect Mission" will demonstrate needed capabilities (e.g., Solar Electric Propulsion) and transportation systems for the crew (i.e., Space Launch System and Orion) and for cargo (i.e., Asteroid Redirect Vehicle). The Mars 2020 mission and follow-on robotic precursor missions will gather Mars surface environment information and will mature technologies. NASA is considering emplacing a small pressurized module in cis-lunar space to support crewed operations of increasing duration and to serve as a platform for critical exploration capabilities testing (e.g., radiation mitigation; extended duration deep space habitation). In addition, "opportunistic mission operations" could demonstrate capabilities not on the Mars critical path that may, nonetheless, enhance exploration operations (e.g., teleoperations, crew assisted Mars sample return). The Proving Ground may also include "pathfinder" missions to test and demonstrate specific capabilities at Mars (e.g., entry, descent, and landing). This paper describes the (1) process used to conduct an architecture-driven technology development assessment, (2) exploration mission critical and supporting capabilities, and (3) approach for addressing test and demonstration opportunities encompassing the spectrum of flight elements and destinations consistent with the Evolvable Mars Campaign.

Bobskill, Marianne R.↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Novel Approach for Engaging Academia in Collaborative Projects with NASA through the X-Hab Academic Innovation Challenge

The X-Hab Academic Innovation Challenge, currently in its sixth year of execution, provides university students with the opportunity to be on the forefront of innovation. The X-Hab Challenge, for short, is designed to engage and retain students in Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM). NASA identifies necessary technologies and studies for deep space missions and invites universities from around the country to develop concepts, prototypes, and lessons learned that will help shape future space missions and awards seed funds to design and produce functional products of interest as proposed by university teams according to their interests and expertise. Universities propose on a variety of projects suggested by NASA and are then judged on technical merit, academic integration, leveraged funding, and outreach. The universities assemble a multi-discipline team of students and advisors that invest months working together, developing concepts, and frequently producing working prototypes. Not only are students able to gain quality experience, working real world problems that have the possibility to be implemented, but they work closely with subject matter experts from NASA who guide them through an official engineering development process.

Habitats↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Novel Approach for Engaging Academia in Collaborative Projects with NASA through the X-Hab Academic Innovation Challenge

The X-Hab Academic Innovation Challenge, currently in its sixth year of execution, provides university students with the opportunity to be on the forefront of innovation. The X-Hab Challenge, for short, is designed to engage and retain students in Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM). NASA identifies necessary technologies and studies for deep space missions and invites universities from around the country to develop concepts, prototypes, and lessons learned that will help shape future space missions and awards seed funds to design and produce functional products of interest as proposed by university teams according to their interests and expertise. Universities propose on a variety of projects suggested by NASA and are then judged on technical merit, academic integration, leveraged funding, and outreach. The universities assemble a multi-discipline team of students and advisors that invest months working together, developing concepts, and frequently producing working prototypes. Not only are students able to gain quality experience, working real world problems that have the possibility of be implemented, but they work closely with subject matter experts from NASA who guide them through an official engineering development process.

X-Hab Challenge↗

NASA NTRS2015

Characterization of Oribtal Debris via Hyper-Velocity Ground-Based Tests

Existing DoD and NASA satellite breakup models are based on a key laboratory-based test, Satellite Orbital debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT), which has supported many applications and matched on-orbit events involving older satellite designs reasonably well over the years. In order to update and improve the break-up models and the NASA Size Estimation Model (SEM) for events involving more modern satellite designs, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has worked in collaboration with the University of Florida to replicate a hypervelocity impact using a satellite built with modern-day spacecraft materials and construction techniques. The spacecraft, called DebriSat, was intended to be a representative of modern LEO satellites and all major designs decisions were reviewed and approved by subject matter experts at Aerospace Corporation. DebriSat is composed of 7 major subsystems including attitude determination and control system (ADCS), command and data handling (C&DH), electrical power system (EPS), payload, propulsion, telemetry tracking and command (TT&C), and thermal management. To reduce cost, most components are emulated based on existing design of flight hardware and fabricated with the same materials. All fragments down to 2 mm is size will be characterized via material, size, shape, bulk density, and the associated data will be stored in a database for multiple users to access. Laboratory radar and optical measurements will be performed on a subset of fragments to provide a better understanding of the data products from orbital debris acquired from ground-based radars and telescopes. The resulting data analysis from DebriSat will be used to update break-up models and develop the first optical SEM in conjunction with updates into the current NASA SEM. The characterization of the fragmentation will be discussed in the subsequent presentation.

Cowardin, H.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Benefit Assessment for Metroplex Tactical Runway Configuration Management (mTRCM) in a Simulated Environment

The System-Oriented Runway Management (SORM) concept is a collection of capabilities focused on a more efficient use of runways while considering all of the factors that affect runway use. Tactical Runway Configuration Management (TRCM), one of the SORM capabilities, provides runway configuration and runway usage recommendations, and monitoring the active runway configuration for suitability given existing factors. This report focuses on the metroplex environment, with two or more proximate airports having arrival and departure operations that are highly interdependent. The myriad of factors that affect metroplex opeations require consideration in arriving at runway configurations that collectively best serve the system as a whole. To assess the metroplex TRCM (mTRCM) benefit, the performance metrics must be compared with the actual historical operations. The historical configuration schedules can be viewed as the schedules produced by subject matter experts (SMEs), and therefore are referred to as the SMEs' schedules. These schedules were obtained from the FAA's Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) database; this is the most representative information regarding runway configuration selection by SMEs. This report focused on a benefit assessment of total delay, transit time, and throughput efficiency (TE) benefits using the mTRCM algorithm at representative volumes for today's traffic at the New York metroplex (N90).

Phojanamongkolkij, Nipa↗

NASA NTRS2015

Characterization of Orbital Debris Via Hyper-Velocity Ground-Based Tests

To replicate a hyper-velocity fragmentation event using modern-day spacecraft materials and construction techniques to better improve the existing DoD and NASA breakup models. DebriSat is intended to be representative of modern LEO satellites.Major design decisions were reviewed and approved by Aerospace subject matter experts from different disciplines. DebriSat includes 7 major subsystems. Attitude determination and control system (ADCS), command and data handling (C&DH), electrical power system (EPS), payload, propulsion, telemetry tracking and command (TT&C), and thermal management. To reduce cost, most components are emulated based on existing design of flight hardware and fabricated with the same materials. A key laboratory-based test, Satellite Orbital debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT), supporting the development of the DoD and NASA satellite breakup models was conducted at AEDC in 1992 .Breakup models based on SOCIT have supported many applications and matched on-orbit events reasonably well over the years.

Cowardin, Heather↗

NASA NTRS2015

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project Verification, Validation, and Credibility (VVandC)

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project supports end user requests by employing the Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) and IMM tools as well as subject matter expertise within the Project. The iMED houses data used by the IMM. The IMM is designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A stochastic approach is taken because deterministic results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation, as well as lay the foundation for external review and application. METHODS: In 2008, the Project team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) [1] was published, the Project team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. Construction of these tools included meeting documentation and evidence requirements sufficient to meet external review success criteria. RESULTS: IMM Project VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include updates to the 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM Project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the HRP NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document working group and the NASA-HDBK-7009 [2]. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including operations, science and technology planning, and exploration planning. IMM v4.0 is slated for operational release in the FY015 and current VVC assessments illustrate the expected VVC status prior to the completion of customer lead external review efforts. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM Project of incorporating Project-specific recommended practices and guidelines for implementing the 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM Project represented a critical communication tool in providing clear and concise suitability assessments to IMM customers. These processes have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Walton, M.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Multipurpose Pressure Vessel Scanner and Photon Doppler Velocimetry

Critical flight hardware typically undergoes a series of nondestructive evaluation methods to screen for defects before it is integrated into the flight system. Conventionally, pressure vessels have been inspected for flaws using a technique known as fluorescent dye penetrant, which is biased to inspector interpretation. An alternate method known as eddy current is automated and can detect small cracks better than dye penetrant. A new multipurpose pressure vessel scanner has been developed to perform internal and external eddy current scanning, laser profilometry, and thickness mapping on pressure vessels. Before this system can be implemented throughout industry, a probability of detection (POD) study needs to be performed to validate the system's eddy current crack/flaw capabilities. The POD sample set will consist of 6 flight-like metal pressure vessel liners with defects of known size. Preparation for the POD includes sample set fabrication, system operation, procedure development, and eddy current settings optimization. For this, collaborating with subject matter experts was required. This technical paper details the preparation activities leading up to the POD study currently scheduled for winter 2015/2016. Once validated, this system will be a proven innovation for increasing the safety and reliability of necessary flight hardware. Additionally, testing of frangible joint requires Photon Doppler Velocimetry (PDV) and Digital Image Correlation instrumentation. There is often noise associated with PDV data, which necessitates a frequency modulation (FM) signal-to-noise pre-test. Generally, FM radio works by varying the carrier frequency and mixing it with a fixed frequency source, creating a beat frequency which is represented by audio frequency that can be heard between about 20 to 20,000 Hz. Similarly, PDV reflects a shifted frequency (a phenomenon known as the Doppler Effect) from a moving source and mixes it with a fixed source frequency, which results in a beat frequency. However, for PDV, discerning the signal from the noise is difficult without a moving source to induce the modulation. A rotating wheel is currently being used as the moving source but its configuration is impractical and has cumbersome placement inside the current frangible joint test cell. As a way to combat this problem and verify a satisfactory signal-to-noise ratio, a reflective moving crystal piezo will be used to modulate a beat frequency, and an absorptive target will be used to block the signal in order to determine any back reflection coming from the probe and discern the true signal-to-noise ratio. The piezo will be mounted and inserted onto the test table on an extendable telescopic antenna grounded by a magnetic base in the test zone. This piezo configuration will be more compatible within the test zone and allow for easy removal of the disk following acceptable signal verification and prior to frangible joint tests.

Ellis, Tayera↗

NASA NTRS2012

ExMC Technology Watch

The Technology Watch (Tech Watch) project is a NASA endeavor conducted under the Human Research Program's (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element, and focusing on ExMC technology gaps. The project involves several NASA centers, including the Johnson Space Center (JSC), Glenn Research Center (GRC), Ames Research Center (ARC), and the Langley Research Center (LaRC). The objective of Tech Watch is to identify emerging, high-impact technologies that augment current NASA HRP technology development efforts. Identifying such technologies accelerates the development of medical care and research capabilities for the mitigation of potential health issues encountered during human space exploration missions. The aim of this process is to leverage technologies developed by academia, industry and other government agencies and to identify the effective utilization of NASA resources to maximize the HRP return on investment. The establishment of collaborations with these entities is beneficial to technology development, assessment and/or insertion and further NASA's goal to provide a safe and healthy environment for human exploration. In 2011, the major focus areas for Tech Watch included information dissemination, education outreach and public accessibility to technology gaps and gap reports. The dissemination of information was accomplished through site visits to research laboratories and/or companies, and participation at select conferences where Tech Watch objectives and technology gaps were presented. Presentation of such material provided researchers with insights on NASA ExMC needs for space exploration and an opportunity to discuss potential areas of common interest. The second focus area, education outreach, was accomplished via two mechanisms. First, several senior student projects, each related to an ExMC technology gap, were sponsored by the various NASA centers. These projects presented ExMC related technology problems firsthand to collegiate laboratories. Second, a RASC-AL (Revolutionary Aerospace Systems Concepts - Academic Linkage) topic for FY12 was developed for medical systems and astronaut health under the Human-Focused Mars Mission Systems and Technologies theme. Announcement of the competition was made to the public in August 2011. Finally, critical Tech Watch information was prepared for public release in the form of gap reports. Complementing the ExMC technology gaps in the public domain, gap reports were generated, reviewed and revised through a series of technical, medical and subject matter expert reviews before approval for public release. An important vehicle for the public release of such documents was development of the ExMC wiki website, which will continue to be populated with gap reports and relevant documents throughout the upcoming year.

Exploration medical capability↗

NASA NTRS2015

Multipurpose Pressure Vessel Scanner and Photon Doppler Velocimetry

Critical flight hardware typically undergoes a series of nondestructive evaluation methods to screen for defects before it is integrated into the flight system. Conventionally, pressure vessels have been inspected for flaws using a technique known as fluorescent dye penetrant, which is biased to inspector interpretation. An alternate method known as eddy current is automated and can detect small cracks better than dye penetrant. A new multipurpose pressure vessel scanner has been developed to perform internal and external eddy current scanning, laser profilometry, and thickness mapping on pressure vessels. Before this system can be implemented throughout industry, a probability of detection (POD) study needs to be performed to validate the system’s eddy current crack/flaw capabilities. The POD sample set will consist of 6 flight-like metal pressure vessel liners with defects of known size. Preparation for the POD includes sample set fabrication, system operation, procedure development, and eddy current settings optimization. For this, collaborating with subject matter experts was required. This technical paper details the preparation activities leading up to the POD study currently scheduled for winter 2015/2016. Once validated, this system will be a proven innovation for increasing the safety and reliability of necessary flight hardware.Additionally, testing of frangible joint requires Photon Doppler Velocimetry (PDV) and Digital Image Correlation instrumentation. There is often noise associated with PDV data, which necessitates a frequency modulation (FM) signal-to-noise pre-test. Generally, FM radio works by varying the carrier frequency and mixing it with a fixed frequency source, creating a beat frequency which is represented by audio frequency that can be heard between about 20 to 20,000 Hz. Similarly, PDV reflects a shifted frequency (a phenomenon known as the Doppler Effect) from a moving source and mixes it with a fixed source frequency, which results in a beat frequency. However, for PDV, discerning the signal from the noise is difficult without a moving source to induce the modulation. A rotating wheel is currently being used as the moving source but its configuration is impractical and has cumbersome placement inside the current frangible joint test cell. As a way to combat this problem and verify a satisfactory signal-to-noise ratio, a reflective moving crystal piezo will be used to modulate a beat frequency, and an absorptive target will be used to block the signal in order to determine any back reflection coming from the probe and discern the true signal-to noise ratio. The piezo will be mounted and inserted onto the test table on an extendable telescopic antenna grounded by a magnetic base in the test zone. This piezo configuration will be more compatible within the test zone and allow for easy removal of the disk following acceptable signal verification and prior to frangible joint tests.Additionally, topics of what was learned and smaller tasks given at White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) will be discussed. All statements in this paper are newly gained knowledge of what I have learned, observed, and have done while at WSTF.

Ellis, Tayera↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Model for Effective Professional Development of Formal Science Educators

The Lunar Workshops for Educators (LWE) series was developed by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) education team in 2010 to provide professional development on lunar science and exploration concepts for grades 6-9 science teachers. Over 300 educators have been trained to date. The LWE model incorporates best practices from pedagogical research of science education, thoughtful integration of scientists and engineer subject matter experts for both content presentations and informal networking with educators, access to NASA-unique facilities, hands-on and data-rich activities aligned with education standards, exposure to the practice of science, tools for addressing common misconceptions, follow-up with participants, and extensive evaluation. Evaluation of the LWE model via pre- and post-assessments, daily workshop surveys, and follow-up surveys at 6-month and 1-year intervals indicate that the LWE are extremely effective in increasing educators' content knowledge, confidence in incorporating content into the classroom, understanding of the practice of science, and ability to address common student misconceptions. In order to address the efficacy of the LWE model for other science content areas, the Dynamic Response of Environments at Asteroids, the Moon, and moons of Mars (DREAM2) education team, funded by NASA's Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute, developed and ran a pilot workshop called Dream2Explore at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in June, 2015. Dream2Explore utilized the LWE model, but incorporated content related to the science and exploration of asteroids and the moons of Mars. Evaluation results indicate that the LWE model was effectively used for educator professional development on non-lunar content. We will present more detail on the LWE model, evaluation results from the Dream2Explore pilot workshop, and suggestions for the application of the model with other science content for robust educator professional development.

Orbiter↗

NASA NTRS2016

CosmoQuest: Better Citizen Science Through Education

In the modern era, NASA SMD missions and facilities are producing data at a rate too great for the science community to maximally utilize. While software can help, what is really needed is additional eyes, hands, and minds - help we can find in the form of citizen scientist volunteers. The CosmoQuest virtual research facility has demonstrated through published research results that classroom students and the public can, with proper training and support from Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), fill roles more traditionally filled by university students. The research question behind CosmoQuest's creation was simple: if students and the public are provided a properly scaffolded experience that mirrors that of researchers, will they come and perform as well as our students? and can they rise up to be research collaborators? In creating CosmoQuest, we started with a core of citizen science portals, educational materials for both students and life-long learners, and collaboration areas. These three primary focuses mirror the research, courses, and collaboration spaces that form the foundation of a university department. We then went on to add the features that make a center stand out - we added seminars in the form of Google Hangouts on Air, planetarium content through our Science on the Half Sphere program, and even the chance to vicariously attend conferences through live blogging by our team members. With this design for a virtual research facility, the answer to our foundational question has been a resounding yes; the public can aid us in doing science provided they are properly trained. To meet the needs of our population we have developed four areas of engagement: research, education, media, and community.

Gay, P. L.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Implementing NASA's Capability-Driven Approach: Insight into NASA's Processes for Maturing Exploration Systems

NASA is engaged in transforming human spaceflight. The Agency is shifting from an exploration-based program with human activities focused on low Earth orbit (LEO) and targeted robotic missions in deep space to a more sustainable and integrated pioneering approach. Through pioneering, NASA seeks to address national goals to develop the capacity for people to work, learn, operate, live, and thrive safely beyond the Earth for extended periods of time. However, pioneering space involves more than the daunting technical challenges of transportation, maintaining health, and enabling crew productivity for long durations in remote, hostile, and alien environments. This shift also requires a change in operating processes for NASA. The Agency can no longer afford to engineer systems for specific missions and destinations and instead must focus on common capabilities that enable a range of destinations and missions. NASA has codified a capability driven approach, which provides flexible guidance for the development and maturation of common capabilities necessary for human pioneers beyond LEO. This approach has been included in NASA policy and is captured in the Agency's strategic goals. It is currently being implemented across NASA's centers and programs. Throughout 2014, NASA engaged in an Agency-wide process to define and refine exploration-related capabilities and associated gaps, focusing only on those that are critical for human exploration beyond LEO. NASA identified 12 common capabilities ranging from Environmental Control and Life Support Systems to Robotics, and established Agency-wide teams or working groups comprised of subject matter experts that are responsible for the maturation of these exploration capabilities. These teams, called the System Maturation Teams (SMTs) help formulate, guide and resolve performance gaps associated with the identified exploration capabilities. The SMTs are defining performance parameters and goals for each of the 12 capabilities, developing maturation plans and roadmaps for the identified performance gaps, specifying the interfaces between the various capabilities, and ensuring that the capabilities mature and integrate to enable future pioneering missions. By managing system development through the SMTs instead of traditional NASA programs and projects, the Agency is shifting from mission-driven development to a more flexible, capability-driven development. The process NASA uses to establish, integrate, prioritize, and manage the SMTs and associated capabilities is iterative. NASA relies on the Human Exploration and Operation Mission Directorate's SMT Integration Team within Advanced Exploration Systems to coordinate and facilitate the SMT process. The SMT Integration team conducts regular reviews and coordination meetings among the SMTs and has developed a number of tools to help the Agency implement capability driven processes. The SMT Integration team is uniquely positioned to help the Agency coordinate the SMTs and other processes that are making the capability-driven approach a reality. This paper will introduce the SMTs and the 12 key capabilities they represent. The role of the SMTs will be discussed with respect to Agency-wide processes to shift from mission-focused exploration to a capability-driven pioneering approach. Specific examples will be given to highlight systems development and testing within the SMTs. These examples will also show how NASA is using current investments in the International Space Station and future investments to develop and demonstrate capabilities. The paper will conclude by describing next steps and a process for soliciting feedback from the space exploration community to refine NASA's process for developing common exploration capabilities.

Williams-Byrd, Julie↗

NASA NTRS2015

An Integrated Framework for Modeling Air Carrier Behavior, Policy, and Impacts in the U.S. Air Transportation System

The implementation of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) in the United States is an ongoing challenge for policymakers due to the complexity of the air transportation system (ATS) with its broad array of stakeholders and dynamic interdependencies between them. The successful implementation of NextGen has a hard dependency on the active participation of U.S. commercial airlines. To assist policymakers in identifying potential policy designs that facilitate the implementation of NextGen, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and LMI developed a research framework called the Air Transportation System Evolutionary Simulation (ATS-EVOS). This framework integrates large empirical data sets with multiple specialized models to simulate the evolution of the airline response to potential future policies and explore consequential impacts on ATS performance and market dynamics. In the ATS-EVOS configuration presented here, we leverage the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM), the Airline Evolutionary Simulation (AIRLINE-EVOS), the Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES), and the Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), all of which enable this research to comprehensively represent the complex facets of the ATS and its participants. We validated this baseline configuration of ATS-EVOS against Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) data and subject matter expert opinion, and we verified the ATS-EVOS framework and agent behavior logic through scenario-based experiments that explored potential implementations of a carbon tax, congestion pricing policy, and the dynamics for equipage of new technology by airlines. These experiments demonstrated ATS-EVOS's capabilities in responding to a wide range of potential NextGen-related policies and utility for decision makers to gain insights for effective policy design.

Horio, Brant M.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Cost-Benefit Analysis for the Advanced Near Net Shape Technology (ANNST) Method for Fabricating Stiffened Cylinders

This cost-benefit analysis assesses the benefits of the Advanced Near Net Shape Technology (ANNST) manufacturing process for fabricating integrally stiffened cylinders. These preliminary, rough order-of-magnitude results report a 46 to 58 percent reduction in production costs and a 7-percent reduction in weight over the conventional metallic manufacturing technique used in this study for comparison. Production cost savings of 35 to 58 percent were reported over the composite manufacturing technique used in this study for comparison; however, the ANNST concept was heavier. In this study, the predicted return on investment of equipment required for the ANNST method was ten cryogenic tank barrels when compared with conventional metallic manufacturing. The ANNST method was compared with the conventional multi-piece metallic construction and composite processes for fabricating integrally stiffened cylinders. A case study compared these three alternatives for manufacturing a cylinder of specified geometry, with particular focus placed on production costs and process complexity, with cost analyses performed by the analogy and parametric methods. Furthermore, a scalability study was conducted for three tank diameters to assess the highest potential payoff of the ANNST process for manufacture of large-diameter cryogenic tanks. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was subsequently used with a group of selected subject matter experts to assess the value of the various benefits achieved by the ANNST method for potential stakeholders. The AHP study results revealed that decreased final cylinder mass and quality assurance were the most valued benefits of cylinder manufacturing methods, therefore emphasizing the relevance of the benefits achieved with the ANNST process for future projects.

Stoner, Mary Cecilia↗

NASA NTRS2016

Improving Human/Autonomous System Teaming Through Linguistic Analysis

An area of increasing interest for the next generation of aircraft is autonomy and the integration of increasingly autonomous systems into the national airspace. Such integration requires humans to work closely with autonomous systems, forming human and autonomous agent teams. The intention behind such teaming is that a team composed of both humans and autonomous agents will operate better than homogenous teams. Procedures exist for licensing pilots to operate in the national airspace system and current work is being done to define methods for validating the function of autonomous systems, however there is no method in place for assessing the interaction of these two disparate systems. Moreover, currently these systems are operated primarily by subject matter experts, limiting their use and the benefits of such teams. Providing additional information about the ongoing mission to the operator can lead to increased usability and allow for operation by non-experts. Linguistic analysis of the context of verbal communication provides insight into the intended meaning of commonly heard phrases such as "What's it doing now?" Analyzing the semantic sphere surrounding these common phrases enables the prediction of the operator's intent and allows the interface to supply the operator's desired information.

Meszaros, Erica L.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Position Paper: Designing Complex Systems to Support Interdisciplinary Cognitive Work

The paper argues that the field we can call cognitive science of interdisciplinary collaboration is an important area of study for improving design of Large-Scale Complex Systems (LaCES) and supporting cognitive work. The paper mostly raised questions that have been documented in earlier qualitative analysis studies, and provided possible avenues of exploration for addressing them. There are likely further contributions from additional disciplines beyond those mentioned in this paper that should be considered and integrated into such a cognitive science framework. Knowledge and awareness of various perspectives will help to inform the types of interventions available for improving LaCES design and functionality. For example, a cognitive interpretation of interdisciplinary collaborations in LaCES elucidated the need for a "translator" or "mediator" in helping subject matter experts to transcend language boundaries, mitigate single discipline bias, support integrative activities, and correct misaligned objectives. Additional research in this direction is likely to uncover similar gaps and opportunities for improvements in practice.

Greene, Melissa T.↗