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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2023

The Impact of ENSO and NAO Initial Conditions and Anomalies on the Modeled Response to Pinatubo-Sized Volcanic Forcing

Strong, strato-volcanic eruptions are a substantial, intermittent source of natural climate variability. Initial atmospheric and oceanic conditions, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), also naturally impact climate on interannual timescales. We examine how initial conditions of ENSO and NAO contribute to the evolution of climate in the period following a Pinatubo-type eruption using a large (81-member) ensemble of model simulations in GISS model E2.1-G. Simulations are initialized from sampled conditions of ENSO and NAO using the protocol of the coordinated CMIP6 Volcanic Model Intercomparison Project (VolMIP) – where aerosols are forced with respect to time, latitude, and height. We analyze paired anomalous variations (perturbed – control) to understand changes in global and regional climate responses under positive, negative, and neutral ENSO and NAO conditions. In particular, we find that for paired anomalies there is a high probability of strong (∼1.5 °C) warming of northern Eurasia surface air temperature in the first winter after the volcanic eruption for negative NAO ensembles coincident with decreased lower stratospheric temperature at the poles, decreased geopotential height, and strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. Climate anomalies (relative to average conditions across the control period), however, show no mean warming and suggest that the strength of this response is impacted by conditions present in the selected period of the control run. Again using paired anomalies, we also observe that under both +ENSO and −ENSO ensembles sea surface temperature decreases in the first post-eruptive boreal winter coinciding with surface cooling from volcanic aerosols. Neutral ENSO ensembles, on the other hand, show variability in their response with no clear trend in post-eruptive warming or cooling. In general, paired anomalies from unperturbed simulations give insight into the evolution of the climate response to volcanic forcing; however, when compared with anomalies from climatological conditions, it is clear that paired anomalies are significantly affected by sampled initial conditions occurring at the time of the volcanic eruption.

volcanic eruptions↗
NASA NTRS1993

Summer Arctic ice concentrations and characteristics from SAR and SSM/I data

The extent and concentration of the Summer minima provide indirect information about the long term ability of the perennial portion of the ice pack to survive the Arctic atmosphere and ocean system. Both active and passive microwave data were used with some success for monitoring the ice cover during the Summer, but they both suffer from similar problems caused by the presence of meltponding, surface wetness, flooding, and freeze/thaw cycles associated with periodic changes in surface air temperatures. A comparative analysis of ice conditions in the Arctic region using coregistered ERS-1 SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) and SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave/Imager) data was made. The analysis benefits from complementary information from the two systems, the good spatial resolution of SAR data, and the good time resolution of and global coverage by SSM/I data. The results show that in many areas ice concentrations derived from SAR data are significantly different (usually higher) than those derived from passive microwave data. Additional insights about surface conditions can be inferred depending on the nature of the discrepancies.

Comiso, Joey C.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Structure and Growth of the Marine Boundary Layer

LANDSAT visible imagery and a one-dimensional Lagrangian boundary layer model were used to hypothesize the nature and the development of the marine boundary layer during a winter episode of strong seaward cold air advection. Over-water heating and moistening of the cold, dry continental air is estimable from linear relations involving horizontal gradients of the near-surface air temperature and humidity. A line of enhanced convection paralleling the Atlantic U.S. coast from south of New York Bay to the vicinity of Virginia Beach, VA was attributed to stronger convergence at low levels. This feature was characterized as a mesoscale front. With the assistance of a three-dimensional mesoscale boundary layer model, initialized with data obtained from the MASEX, the marine boundary layer can be mapped over the entire Atlantic coastal domain and the evolution of the boundary layer can be studied as a function of different characteristics of important surface level forcings. The effects on boundary layer growth due to the magnitude and pattern of sea surface temperature, to the shape of the coastline, and to atmospheric conditions, such as the orientation of the prevailing wind are examined.

Mccumber, M.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Impact of Different Absolute Solar Irradiance Values on Current Climate Model Simulations

Simulations of the preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates are made with the GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model 3 using two different estimates of the absolute solar irradiance value: a higher value measured by solar radiometers in the 1990s and a lower value measured recently by the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment. Each of the model simulations is adjusted to achieve global energy balance; without this adjustment the difference in irradiance produces a global temperature change of 0.48C, comparable to the cooling estimated for the Maunder Minimum. The results indicate that by altering cloud cover the model properly compensates for the different absolute solar irradiance values on a global level when simulating both preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates. On a regional level, the preindustrial climate simulations and the patterns of change with doubled CO2 concentrations are again remarkably similar, but there are some differences. Using a higher absolute solar irradiance value and the requisite cloud cover affects the model's depictions of high-latitude surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and stratospheric ozone, as well as tropical precipitation. In the climate change experiments it leads to an underestimation of North Atlantic warming, reduced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific, and smaller total ozone growth at high northern latitudes. Although significant, these differences are typically modest compared with the magnitude of the regional changes expected for doubled greenhouse gas concentrations. Nevertheless, the model simulations demonstrate that achieving the highest possible fidelity when simulating regional climate change requires that climate models use as input the most accurate (lower) solar irradiance value.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS1995

On treatments of fetch and stability sensitivity in large-area estimates of sensible heat flux over sea ice

Bulk transfer coefficients estimated as a function of atmospheric stability and sea-ice lead width are combined with Arctic meteorological observations and ice thickness data to calculate the sensitivity of turbulent flux estimates to changes in lead width, wind speed, air temperature, and ice thickness for a high-concentration ice pack. These results are considered in terms of bulk transfer parameterizations that use a fixed transfer coefficient r that address atmospheric stability only. On the basis of the fetch-sensitive parameterizations considered here, differences in lead width for widths up to about 200 m can exert a substantial influence on sensible heat transfer coefficients and heat flux from leads under typical Arctic conditions. Fluxes from an open water lead decrease by 34% if fetch increases from 10 m to 100 m. This effect is greatest for open water leads, decreases considerably as leads refreeze, and is negligible for ice thicker than about 0.3 m. If open or newly refrozen leads make up 2% of the ice cover, than an increase in mean fetch from 10 m to 100 m yields a decrease of about 2 W/sq m in areally averaged flux from the ice pack. Calculations using observed and theoretical lead width distributions suggest that parameterizing lead widths in a sea ice model can be done effectively using a single, representative lead width rather than requiring a full distribution of widths. When coupled to the lowest atmospheric boundary layer using a bulk similarity theory model, this sensitivity of heat transfer to fetch results in substantially higher near-surface air temperatures over narrow leads, with equilibrium air temperatures decreasing by about 50% as fetch increases from 10 to 100 m.

Maslanik, J. A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Climate Fingerprinting Sounder Product (ClimFiSP) Skin Temperature Trends Analysis

Climate fingerprinting Sounder Product (ClimFiSP) has been developed at NASA Langley Research Center which includes daily skin temperature, surface emissivity, air temperature, H2O, trace gases, and cloud properties on 0.5x0.5 grid. Those properties are derived from IR hyper-spectral radiance measured by AIRS on Aqua and CrIS on SNPP and JPSS series. Global skin temperature trends have been derived using more than 20 years of monthly mean skin temperature data from ClimFiSP. The ClimFiSP algorithm use the spectral fingerprinting methodology that allows a low latency procession of more than two decades long satellite data record. The computational cost can be reduced by more than two orders of magnitude as compared with traditional Level-Level2-Level3 retrieval algorithms. In this presentation the global skin temperature trend from ClimFiSP will be compared with skin temperature trend derived from CLIMCAPS, ERA5, GISTEMP, HadCRUT5, and IASI data products, and the results show that pattern of ClimFiSP global skin temperature trends overall matches well with other datasets. The zonally averaged skin temperature anomaly will also be validated using those datasets. It is expected that ClimFiSP surface temperature data can serve as an important complement for surface-based estimates, especially in the regions where the spatial coverage of the surface-based observations is scarce.

Liqiao Lei↗
NASA NTRS2001

Assimilation of GOES Land Surface Data into a Mesoscale Models

A technique has been developed for assimilating Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite-observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The assimilation technique has been applied to the Oklahoma-Kansas region during the spring-summer 2000 time period when dynamic changes in vegetation cover occur. In April, central Oklahoma is characterized by large NDVI associated with winter wheat while surrounding areas are primarily rangeland with lower NDVI. In July the vegetation pattern reverses as the central wheat area changes to low NDVI due to harvesting and the surrounding rangeland is greener than it was in April. The goal of this study is to determine if assimilating satellite land surface data can improve simulation of the complex spatial distribution of surface energy and water fluxes across this region. The PSU/NCAR NM5 V3 system is used in this study. The grid configuration consists of a 36-km CONUS domain and a 12-km nest over the area of interest. Bulk verification statistics (BIAS and RMSE) of surface air temperature and dewpoint indicates that assimilation of the satellite data results reduces both the bias and RMSE for both state variables. In addition, comparison of model data with ARM/CART EBBR flux observations reveals that the assimilation technique adjusts the bowen ratio in a realistic fashion.

Lapenta, William M.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Climate Variability in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas

Satellite data reveal a 20% decline in sea ice extent in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas in the two decades following 1973. This change is negatively correlated with surface air temperatures on the west side of the Antarctic Peninsula, which have increased -0.5 C / decade- since the mid-1940s, The recession was strongest during summer, when monthly average minima in 1991-92 removed much of the incipient multiyear ice over the continental shelf. This would have lowered the regional-mean ice thickness, impacting snow ice formation, brine production, and vertical heat flux. The northern ice edge contracted by 1 deg of latitude in all seasons from 1973-79 to 1987-93, returning toward mean conditions in 1993-95. The decline included multiyear cycles of several years in length, superimposed on high interannual variability. A review of atmospheric forcing shows winds consistent with mean and extreme ice extents, and suggests links to larger-scale circulation changes in the South Pacific. Historical ocean measurements are sparse in this sector, but mixed-layer depths and upper pycnoclines beneath the sea ice resemble those in the Weddell Sea. Weaker surface currents or changes in the upwelling of Circumpolar Deep Water on the continental shelf could have contributed to the anomaly persistence.

Jacobs, Stanley S.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Strengthening of Ocean Heat Uptake Efficiency Associated with the Recent Climate Hiatus

The rate of increase of global-mean surface air temperature (SAT(sub g)) has apparently slowed during the last decade. We investigated the extent to which state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) can capture this hiatus period by using multimodel ensembles of historical climate simulations. While the SAT(sub g) linear trend for the last decade is not captured by their ensemble means regardless of differences in model generation and external forcing, it is barely represented by an 11-member ensemble of a GCM, suggesting an internal origin of the hiatus associated with active heat uptake by the oceans. Besides, we found opposite changes in ocean heat uptake efficiency (k), weakening in models and strengthening in nature, which explain why the models tend to overestimate the SAT(sub g) trend. The weakening of k commonly found in GCMs seems to be an inevitable response of the climate system to global warming, suggesting the recovery from hiatus in coming decades.

Climate hiatus↗
NASA NTRS2016

LS3MIP (v1.0) Contribution to CMIP6: The Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project Aims, Setup and Expected Outcome.

The Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project (LS3MIP) is designed to provide a comprehensive assessment of land surface, snow, and soil moisture feedbacks on climate variability and climate change, and to diagnose systematic biases in the land modules of current Earth System Models (ESMs). The solid and liquid water stored at the land surface has a large influence on the regional climate, its variability and predictability, including effects on the energy, water and carbon cycles. Notably, snow and soil moisture affect surface radiation and flux partitioning properties, moisture storage and land surface memory. They both strongly affect atmospheric conditions, in particular surface air temperature and precipitation, but also large-scale circulation patterns. However, models show divergent responses and representations of these feedbacks as well as systematic biases in the underlying processes. LS3MIP will provide the means to quantify the associated uncertainties and better constrain climate change projections, which is of particular interest for highly vulnerable regions (densely populated areas, agricultural regions, the Arctic, semi-arid and other sensitive terrestrial ecosystems).The experiments are subdivided in two components, the first addressing systematic land biases in offline mode (LMIP, building upon the 3rd phase of Global Soil Wetness Project; GSWP3) and the second addressing land feedbacks attributed to soil moisture and snow in an integrated framework (LFMIP, building upon the GLACE-CMIP blueprint).

atmospheric temperature↗
NASA NTRS2015

Sensitivity to Factors Underlying the Hiatus

Recent trends in global mean surface air temperature fall outside the 90 range predicted by models using the CMIP5 forcings and scenarios; this recent period of muted warming is dubbed the hiatus. The hiatus has attracted broad attention in both the popular press and the scientific literature, primarily because of its perceived implications for understanding long-term trends. Many hypotheses have been offered to explain the warming slowdown during the hiatus, and comprehensive studies of this period across multiple variables and spatial scales will likely improve our understanding of the physical mechanisms driving global temperature change and variability.We argue, however, that decadal temperature trends by themselves are unlikely to constrain future trajectories of global mean temperature and that the hiatus does not significantly revise our understanding of overall climate sensitivity. Instead, we demonstrate that, because of the poorly constrained nature of the hiatus, model-observation disagreements over this period may be resolvable via uncertainties in the observations, modeled internal variability, forcing estimates, or (more likely) some combination of all three factors. We define the hiatus interval as 1998-2012, endpoints judiciously chosen to minimize observed warming by including the large 1998 El Nio event and excluding 2014, an exceptionally warm year. Such choices are fundamentally subjective and cannot be considered random, so any probabilistic statements regarding the likelihood of this occurring need to be made carefully. Using this definition, the observed global temperature trend estimates from four datasets fall outside the 5-95 interval predicted by the CMIP5 models. Here we explore some of the plausible explanations for this discrepancy, and show that no unique explanation is likely to fully account for the hiatus.

trends↗
NASA NTRS1978

Aircraft instrumentation system for the remote sensing of carbon monoxide

A light twin-engine aircraft has been instrumented with a carbon monoxide remote gas sensor system and test flown over the Southern Lake Michigan basin during August, 1976. The remote sensor is based on the gas filter correlation technique. The radiance levels from the sensor along with the data on the surface temperature, air temperature, dewpoint, and altitude were digitized and recorded on seven-track magnetic tape. Air samples were collected at various altitudes over selected sites for later analysis of carbon monoxide concentration and comparison with the inferred concentration from the remote sensor. The values of carbon monoxide obtained from the air samples and the values inferred from the remote sensor for data collected over water are in good agreement.

Beck, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Global sea level trend in the past century

Data derived from tide-gauge stations throughout the world indicate that the mean sea level rose by about 12 centimeters in the past century. The sea level change has a high correlation with the trend of global surface air temperature. A large part of the sea level rise can be accounted for in terms of the thermal expansion of the upper layers of the ocean. The results also represent weak indirect evidence for a net melting of the continental ice sheets.

Gornitz, V.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Analysis of atmosphere-sea ice interactions in the Arctic basin using ESMR microwave data

Data from the Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer (ESMR) on Nimbus-5 are used to determine the spatial and temporal patterns of change in microwave brightness signatures of Arctic sea ice during a full annual cycle (1973/74). Interactions of ice conditions with the atmosphere are examined using grid point data for surface air temperature and atmospheric pressure. Principal components analysis is used to examine the major elements present in the microwave and atmospheric data. Component scores from these analyses are then used in a canonical correlation analysis to determine interassociations present between the ice and atmosphere in the Beaufort Sea and the European sectors on a synoptic time scale. The synoptic weather conditions associated with the pattern of snow melt on the ice in spring 1974 are described, and a clarification of possible alternative interpretations of features identified as polynyi occurring at 80-85 deg N during the late summer 1974 is presented.

Crane, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS1982

The radiative impact of cumulus cloudiness in a general circulation model

The effect of cumulus cloudiness on the radiational heating and, on other aspects of the climate were simulated by the GLAS Climate Model. An experiment in which the cumulus cloudiness is neglected completely for purposes of the solar and terrestrial radiation parameterizations was performed. The results are compared with those of a control run, in which 100% cumulus cloud cover is assumed. The net solar radiation input into the Earth atmosphere system is more realistic in the experiment, and the model's underprediction of the global mean outgoing thermal radiation at the top of the atmosphere is reduced. The results suggest that there is a positive feedback between cumulus convection and the radiation field. The upper troposphere is warmer in the experiment, the surface air temperature increases over land, and the thermal lows over the continents intensity.

Moeng, C. H.↗
NASA NTRS1982

The influence of ground moisture conditions in North America on summer climate as modeled in the GISS GCM

A new general circulation model, developed to run on a coarse grid (8 x 10 deg resolution) at the Goddard institute for Space Studies is employed to investigate the potential use of ground moisture anomalies for seasonal climate prediction. For three different summertime simulations, the ground moisture on 1 June over the United States is reduced to 1/4 of its value in the control run. The results show that the subsequent surface air temperature is significantly higher throughout most of the summer, while the precipitation decreases, especially in June and July. Knowledge of late spring ground moisture anomalies should thus be an aid in predicting summertime climate.

Rind, D.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The Solar Constant, Climate, and Some Tests of the Storage Hypothesis

Activity related modulation of the solar constant can have practical consequences for climate only if storage is involved, as opposed to a detailed balance between sunspot blocking and facular reemission. Four empirical tests are considered that might distinguish between these opposing interpretations: monochromatic measurements of positive and negative flux; comparison of modelled and measured irradiance variations; the interpretation of secular trends in irradiance data; and the direct test of an anticipated signal in climate records of surface air temperature. The yet unanswered question of the role of faculae as possible reemitters of blocked radiation precludes a definitive answer, although other tests suggest their role to be minor, and that storage and an 11 year modulation is implicated. A crucial test is the behavior of the secular trend in irradiance in the declining years of the present activity cycle.

Eddy, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Effects of nontropical forest cover on climate

The albedo of a forest with snow on the ground is much less than that of snow-covered low vegetation such as tundra. As a result, simulation of the Northern Hemisphere climate, when fully forested south of a suitably chosen taiga/tundra boundary (ecocline), produces a hemispheric surface air temperature 1.9 K higher than that of an earth devoid of trees. Using variations of the solar constant to force climate changes in the GLAS Multi-Layer Energy Balance Model, the role of snow-albedo feedback in increasing the climate sensitivity to external perturbations is reexamined. The effect of snow-albedo feedback is found to be significantly reduced when a low albedo is used for snow over taiga, south of the fixed latitude of the ecocline. If the ecocline shifts to maintain equilibrium with the new climate - which is presumed to occur in a prolonged perturbation when time is sufficient for trees to grow or die and fall - the feedback is stronger than for a fixed ecocline, especially at high latitudes. However, this snow/vegetation-albedo feedback is still essentially weaker than the snow-albedo feedback in the forest-free case. The loss of forest to agriculture and other land-use would put the present climate further away from that associated with the fully forested earth south of the ecocline and closer to the forest-free case. Thus, the decrease in nontropical forest cover since prehistoric times has probably affected the climate by reducing the temperatures and by increasing the sensitivity to perturbations, with both effects more pronounced at high latitudes.

Otterman, J.↗