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At least 163 records · Page 9

Validating Greater Sage-Grouse Individual-based Model (IBM) Tool (Final Report)

The project focused on validating the previously developed Greater Sage-Grouse Individual-based Model (GrSG IBM; LaGory et al. 2012, 2021). The objective was to transform this predictive, spatially and temporally explicit model into a portable resource to assist siting/resource managers in proactively assessing the cumulative impacts of wind energy development on the greater sage-grouse. Utilizing a bottom-up, individual-based approach, the GrSG IBM accounts for landscape context and species behavior, aiming to reduce uncertainty in estimating development impacts and support ecologically mindful land-based wind energy development. The validation effort covered approximately 6,540 km 2 near the Seven Mile Hill Wind Project in Wyoming. The GrSG IBM tool, built on the NetLogo platform (Tisue and Wilensky 2004), was executed over a 50-year period, with the analysis focusing on years following a 10-year initialization phase. Key results demonstrated the tool’s biological soundness across five key biological metrics: non-chick age class distribution (older than 10 weeks), adult sex ratio, life expectancy, population size, and overall population growth. For instance, the tool estimated that 58.6% of the non-chick population was reproductively immature, while the reference ranges from 51.4% to 57.8% (Patterson 1952, Rogers 1964). Experts confirmed the tool’s estimate was within a reasonable range for the species. The tool estimated average life expectancy of 1.43 years, while the reference ranges from 0.9 years to 1.1 years (Ammann 1957, Hamerstrom 1949). Experts also supported the model’s life-expectancy estimate as ecologically sound for the species in the study area. In terms of population change, the model estimated an annual shift between a 0.6% decline and a 1.0% increase over 50 years. While the reference suggests 2.9% annual decline in range-wide populations (Cortes et al. 2023), that includes many at-risk populations in South Dakota and Washington, for example. Our study area—in the northeastern part of Carbon County and western-edge of Albany County, Wyoming—is one of the remaining greater sage-grouse habitats supporting some of the most stable populations. Experts confirmed that the range of the annual population change spanning from a 0.6% decline to a 1.0% increase estimated by the tool was reasonable for our study area for this reason and confirmed that aligned with population estimates from existing studies on the greater sage-grouse and wind energy development in the study area (LeBeau et al. 2017a, Smith et al. 2024). Furthermore, the project showed that temporally explicit biological metrics generated by the GrSG IBM tool can complement the USGS’ Prioritizing Restoration of Sagebrush Ecosystems Tool (PReSET; Duchardt et al. 2021) by incorporating habitat restoration strategies into seasonal habitat suitability models to visualize population responses over time.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A reinforcement learning-based architecture for fuzzy logic control

This paper introduces a new method for learning to refine a rule-based fuzzy logic controller. A reinforcement learning technique is used in conjunction with a multilayer neural network model of a fuzzy controller. The approximate reasoning based intelligent control (ARIC) architecture proposed here learns by updating its prediction of the physical system's behavior and fine tunes a control knowledge base. Its theory is related to Sutton's temporal difference (TD) method. Because ARIC has the advantage of using the control knowledge of an experienced operator and fine tuning it through the process of learning, it learns faster than systems that train networks from scratch. The approach is applied to a cart-pole balancing system.

Berenji, Hamid R.↗

SWOT: The Surface Water and Ocean Topography Mission. Wide- Swath Altimetric Elevation on Earth

The elevation of the surface of the ocean and freshwater bodies on land holds key information on many important processes of the Earth System. The elevation of the ocean surface, called ocean surface topography, has been measured by conventional nadirlooking radar altimeter for the past two decades. The data collected have been used for the study of large-scale circulation and sea level change. However, the spatial resolution of the observations has limited the study to scales larger than about 200 km, leaving the smaller scales containing substantial kinetic energy of ocean circulation that is responsible for the flux of heat, dissolved gas and nutrients between the upper and the deep ocean. This flux is important to the understanding of the ocean's role in regulatingfuture climate change.The elevation of the water bodies on land is a key parameter required for the computation of storage and discharge of freshwater in rivers, lakes, and wetlands. Globally, the spatial and temporal variability of water storage and discharge is poorly known due to the lack of well-sampled observations. In situ networks measuring river flows are declining worldwide due to economic and political reasons. Conventional altimeter observations suffers from the complexity of multiple peaks caused by the reflections from water, vegetation canopy and rough topography, resulting in much less valid data over land than over the ocean. Another major limitation is the large inter track distance preventing good coverage of rivers and other water bodies.This document provides descriptions of a new measurement technique using radar interferometry to obtain wide-swath measurement of water elevation at high resolution over both the ocean and land. Making this type of measurement, which addresses the shortcomings of conventional altimetry in both oceanographic and hydrologic applications, is the objective of a mission concept called Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT), which was recommended by the National Research Council's first decadal survey of NASA's Earth science program. This document provides wide-ranging examples of research opportunities in oceanography and land hydrology that would be enabled by the new type of measurement. Additional applications in many other branches of Earth System science ranging from ocean bathymetry to sea ice dynamics are also discussed. Many of the technical issues in making the measurement are discussed as well. Also presented is a preliminary design of the SWOT Mission concept, which is being jointly developed by NASA and CNES, with contributions from the Canadian Space Agency.

altimetry↗

Estimating the Concentration of Large Raindrops from Polarimetric Radar and Disdrometer Observations

Estimation of rainfall integral parameters, including radar observables, and empirical relations between them are sensitive to the truncation of the drop size distribution (DSD), particularly at the large drop end. The sensitivity of rainfall integral parameters to the maximum drop diameter (D(sub max)) is exacerbated at C‐band since resonance effects are pronounced for large drops in excess of 5 mm diameter (D). Due to sampling limitations, it is often difficult to reliably estimate D(sub max) with disdrometers. The resulting uncertainties in D(sub max0 potentially increase errors in radar retrieval methods, particularly at C‐band, that rely on disdrometer observations for DSD input to radar models. In fact, D(sub max) is typically an assumed DSD parameter in the development of radar retrieval methods. Because of these very uncertainties, it is difficult to independently confirm disdrometer estimates of D(sub max) with polarimetric radar observations. A couple of approaches can be taken to reduce uncertainty in large drop measurement. Longer integration times can be used for the collection of larger disdrometer samples. However, integration periods must be consistent with a radar resolution volume (RRV) and the temporal and spatial scales of the physical processes affecting the DSD therein. Multiple co‐located disdrometers can be combined into a network to increase the sample size within a RRV. However, over a reasonable integration period, a single disdrometer sample volume is many orders of magnitudes less than a RRV so it is not practical to devise a network of disdrometers that has an equivalent volume to a typical RRV. Since knowledge of DSD heterogeneity and large drop occurrence in time and space is lacking, the specific accuracy or even general representativeness of disdrometer based D(sub max) and large drop concentration estimates within a RRV are currently unknown. To address this complex issue, we begin with a simpler question. Is the frequency of occurrence of large rain drops (D > 5 mm) in disdrometer observations, either stand alone or networked, generally representative and consistent with polarimetric radar observations? We first show from simulations that the concentration of large (D > 5 mm) rain drops (N(sub T5)) can be estimated from polarimetric observations of specific differential phase (K(sub dp)) and differential reflectivity (Z(sub dr)), N(sub T5)=F(K(sub dp),Z(sub dr)), or horizontal reflectivity (Z(sub h)) and Z(sub dr), N(sub T5)=(Z(sub h),Z(sub dr)). We assess the error associated with polarimetric retrieval of N(sub T5), including sensitivity to D(sub max) parameterization assumptions and measurement error in the radar simulations. Polarimetric measurements at S‐band and C‐band will then be used to retrieve estimates of N(sub T5) and compared to disdrometer estimates of N(sub T5). After careful consideration of retrieval error, we will check consistency between disdrometer and polarimetric radar estimates of N(sub T5) and the frequency of occurrence of large rain drops in a variety of precipitating regimes using data from NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ground Validation (GV) program, including field campaigns such as MC3E (Oklahoma) and IFloodS (Iowa) and extended measurements over Huntsville, Alabama and NASA Wallops Flight Facility in coastal Virginia.

Carey, Lawrence D.↗

Examining Individual Differences in Temporal Profiles of Cardiovascular Responses to the Head Down Tilt during Fluid Loading

Upon returning to Earth after an extended exposure to micro-gravity in space many astronauts have experienced symptoms of light headedness and fainting associated with post-flight orthostatic intolerance (low blood pressure). The main reason for this condition is the reduced fluid volume in the body while in space. A preventative treatment was proposed to prevent this condition by fluid loading to restore lost plasma volume by giving crew members salt tablets and water prior to re-entry. In order to simulate micro-gravity effects on earth test subjects are placed in a supine position with their head below the level of their heart (6 head down tilt-HDT). The purpose of the present study is to define individual differences in the time course of cardiac stroke volume responses to HDT (6 hours) and the effectiveness of fluid loading for mitigating orthostatic intolerance when standing . Echocardiography and impedance cardiography data will be collected on 8 men and 8 women to examine heart function to HDT. A second objective is to determine if the effects of fluid loading vary due to individual differences (e.g., age, gender, height, weight, physical fitness, etc.).

orthostatic intolerance↗

Vorticity-streamfunction formulation of unsteady incompressible flow past a cylinder - Sensitivity of the computed flow field to the location of the outflow boundary

The influence of the location of the outflow computational boundary on the unsteady incompressible flow past a circular cylinder at Reynolds number 100 is examined. The vorticity-streamfunction formulation of the Navier-Stokes equations is used in all computations. Two types of outflow boundary conditions are subjected to a series of tests in which the domain length is gradually reduced. The traction-free condition performs well in most cases and allows the outflow boundary to be located as close as 6.5 cylinder diameters from the body. The other boundary condition type is not as forgiving, but has the advantage of being simpler to implement and can still provide reasonably accurate solutions. It is also observed that both condition types can influence the flow field strongly and globally when the boundary is brought closer than 2.5 diameters from the body. In such cases the temporal periodicity of the solution is lost.

Behr, M.↗

Accuracy considerations in the computational analysis of jet noise

The application of computational fluid dynamics methods to the analysis of problems in aerodynamic noise has resulted in the extension and adaptation of conventional CFD to the discipline now referred to as computational aeroacoustics (CAA). In the analysis of jet noise accurate resolution of a wide range of spatial and temporal scales in the flow field is essential if the acoustic far field is to be predicted. The numerical simulation of unsteady jet flow has been successfully demonstrated and many flow features have been computed with reasonable accuracy. Grid refinement and increased solution time are discussed as means of improving accuracy of Navier-Stokes solutions of unsteady jet flow. In addition various properties of different numerical procedures which influence accuracy are examined with particular emphasis on dispersion and dissipation characteristics. These properties are investigated by using selected schemes to solve model problems for the propagation of a shock wave and a sinusoidal disturbance. The results are compared for the different schemes.

Scott, James N.↗

Surface Heat Budgets and Sea Surface Temperature in the Pacific Warm Pool During TOGA COARE

The daily mean heat and momentum fluxes at the surface derived from the SSM/I and Japan's GMS radiance measurements are used to study the temporal and spatial variability of the surface energy budgets and their relationship to the sea surface temperature during the COARE intensive observing period (IOP). For the three time legs observed during the IOP, the retrieved surface fluxes compare reasonably well with those from the IMET buoy, RV Moana Wave, and RV Wecoma. The characteristics of surface heat and momentum fluxes are very different between the southern and northern warm pool. In the southern warm pool, the net surface heat flux is dominated by solar radiation which is, in turn, modulated by the two Madden-Julian oscillations. The surface winds are generally weak, leading to a shallow ocean mixed layer. The solar radiation penetrating through the bottom of the mixed layer is significant, and the change in the sea surface temperature during the IOP does not follow the net surface heat flux. In the northern warm pool, the northeasterly trade wind is strong and undergoes strong seasonal variation. The variation of the net surface heat flux is dominated by evaporation. The two westerly wind bursts associated with the Madden-Julian oscillations seem to have little effect on the net surface heat flux. The ocean mixed layer is deep, and the solar radiation penetrating through the bottom of the mixed layer is small. As opposed to the southern warm pool, the trend of the sea surface temperature in the northern warm pool during the IOP is in agreement with the variation of the net heat flux at the surface.

Chou, Shu-Hsien↗

A Moderate-resolution Geosynchronous Microwave Sounder

The introduction of microwave radiometers for remote sensing of atmospheric temperature and humidity began in early 1970s, when NASA's Nimbus series experimental satellites tested a number of microwave payloads which are the precursors of today's operational microwave temperature and humidity sounders such as the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A and AMSU-B), now flying on several Lower Earth Orbiting (LEO) satellites, notably the National Oceanic and Atmospheric (NOAA)-series weather satellites. The Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) will be the next generation microwave sounder, now being developed by NASA for the future U.S. National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites System (NPOESS), slated for operation late this decade. The unique feature of a microwave sensor is its cloud-penetrating capability. And the visible and IR sensors are usually greatly degraded by cloud covers. But under the cloud cover is where the weather can be most "active," and atmospheric measurements are most urgently needed. This unique capability has been well proven by AMSU-A, and AMSU-B on LEO satellites. The same capability is also true for a microwave sounder on a GEO satellite. The key advantage of a sensor on a GEO-platform is its "high temporal resolution." A sensor on a GEO-platform can almost "continuous" monitor a given scene on Earth. On the other hand, the major drawback the GEO-platform is its poor spatial resolution. This is probably the main reason why a geosynchronous microwave sounder has yet to be realized. Take the ATMS as an example. It has a 20 cm diameter antenna (temperature channels), producing a 2.2 degree beam, resulting in a footprint of 32 km (from the NPOESS 833 km orbit). From a GEO-orbit the same 32 km footprint would need an antenna 43 times larger, or 860 cm diameter. We will discuss the needs and advantages of such a GEO-microwave sounder with a straw-man design, and show the expected performance characteristics, such as the radiometric temperature sensitivity, surface spatial resolution etc, plus the status of the technology.

Shiue, James↗

Spectral analysis of gappy images with application to Sea WiFS data

For various reasons, such as the presence of clouds, satellite orbit configuration, data sampling pattern, remote sensing instruments yield irregularly spaced or gappy/patchy measurements. To obviate these problems, we use original, non-gridded satellite data and construct a spatio-temporal (or just spatial) autocorrelation function of the field's variation.

image analysis spectral analysis Sea WiFS↗

WMLES of Boundary-Layer Transition

The potential for the accurate prediction of laminar-turbulent transition by Wall-Modeled Large-Eddy Simulation (WMLES) is investigated through analysis of Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) and WMLES results. The analysis indicates satisfactory prediction of transition by WMLES is possible, provided a) a sufficiently accurate wall model for the initial stage of transition is employed, b) a satisfactory transition is made between this initial-stage wall model and the wall model for the downstream fully-developed turbulence, and c) limitations on temporal and spatial resolution, and on the thickness of the wall-modeled region, imposed by the need to accurately resolve the disturbance waves and the transition region are observed. This is illustrated with a WMLES computation that yields reasonable agreement with DNS results; however, the wall-modeled region thickness, and thus the cost savings, is less than is typical for WMLES of fully developed turbulence.

wall-modeled large-eddy simulation, boundary-layer↗

Improved Satellite Retrievals of NO2 and SO2 over the Canadian Oil Sands and Comparisons with Surface Measurements

Satellite remote sensing is increasingly being used to monitor air quality over localized sources such as the Canadian oil sands. Following an initial study, significantly low biases have been identified in current NO2 and SO2 retrieval products from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite sensor over this location resulting from a combination of its rapid development and small spatial scale. Air mass factors (AMFs) used to convert line-of-sight "slant" columns to vertical columns were re-calculated for this region based on updated and higher resolution input information including absorber profiles from a regional-scale (15 km × 15 km resolution) air quality model, higher spatial and temporal resolution surface reflectivity, and an improved treatment of snow. The overall impact of these new Environment Canada (EC) AMFs led to substantial increases in the peak NO2 and SO2 average vertical column density (VCD), occurring over an area of intensive surface mining, by factors of 2 and 1.4, respectively, relative to estimates made with previous AMFs. Comparisons are made with long-term averages of NO2 and SO2 (2005-2011) from in situ surface monitors by using the air quality model to map the OMI VCDs to surface concentrations. This new OMI-EC product is able to capture the spatial distribution of the in situ instruments (slopes of 0.65 to 1.0, correlation coefficients of greater than 0.9). The concentration absolute values from surface network observations were in reasonable agreement, with OMI-EC NO2 and SO2 biased low by roughly 30%. Several complications were addressed including correction for the interference effect in the surface NO2 instruments and smoothing and clear-sky biases in the OMI measurements. Overall these results highlight the importance of using input information that accounts for the spatial and temporal variability of the location of interest when performing retrievals.

surface concentration↗

Evaluating Mean State Cloud Properties in the Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM)

Accurately simulating clouds remains a key challenge in global climate models, primarily because cloud formation involves sub-grid processes that are parameterized and crudely represented in models. This study examines the performance of DOE's Simple Cloud-Resolving Energy Exascale Earth System (E3SM) Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) in simulating cloud properties and their spatio-temporal distribution by comparing against satellite observations. Two horizontal resolutions of SCREAM (3 and 12 km) are examined, and both depict a realistic spatial structure of mean-state cloud cover but underestimate its global mean magnitude. SCREAM 3 km reasonably reproduces the distribution of mean-state cloud properties across various cloud optical thickness and cloud-top pressure regimes, with performance comparable to CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble and marginally outperforming SCREAM 12 km. Still, SCREAM 3 km tends to underpredict low clouds and optically thin clouds, highlighting the need for continued improvement in representing unresolved processes. This study provides a basis for confidence in the representation of clouds in SCREAM, as simulating mean-state clouds is a necessary prerequisite for trusting its cloud responses to changes in aerosols and greenhouse gases.

Geosciences↗

Temporal Large-Eddy Simulation

In 1999, Stolz and Adams unveiled a subgrid-scale model for LES based upon approximately inverting (defiltering) the spatial grid-filter operator and termed .the approximate deconvolution model (ADM). Subsequently, the utility and accuracy of the ADM were demonstrated in a posteriori analyses of flows as diverse as incompressible plane-channel flow and supersonic compression-ramp flow. In a prelude to the current paper, a parameterized temporal ADM (TADM) was developed and demonstrated in both a priori and a posteriori analyses for forced, viscous Burger's flow. The development of a time-filtered variant of the ADM was motivated-primarily by the desire for a unifying theoretical and computational context to encompass direct numerical simulation (DNS), large-eddy simulation (LES), and Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes simulation (RANS). The resultant methodology was termed temporal LES (TLES). To permit exploration of the parameter space, however, previous analyses of the TADM were restricted to Burger's flow, and it has remained to demonstrate the TADM and TLES methodology for three-dimensional flow. For several reasons, plane-channel flow presents an ideal test case for the TADM. Among these reasons, channel flow is anisotropic, yet it lends itself to highly efficient and accurate spectral numerical methods. Moreover, channel-flow has been investigated extensively by DNS, and a highly accurate data base of Moser et.al. exists. In the present paper, we develop a fully anisotropic TADM model and demonstrate its utility in simulating incompressible plane-channel flow at nominal values of Re(sub tau) = 180 and Re(sub tau) = 590 by the TLES method. The TADM model is shown to perform nearly as well as the ADM at equivalent resolution, thereby establishing TLES as a viable alternative to LES. Moreover, as the current model is suboptimal is some respects, there is considerable room to improve TLES.

Pruett, C. D.↗

Airborne and Ground-Based Measurements Using a High-Performance Raman Lidar

A high-performance Raman lidar operating in the UV portion of the spectrum has been used to acquire, for the first time using a single lidar, simultaneous airborne profiles of the water vapor mixing ratio, aerosol backscatter, aerosol extinction, aerosol depolarization and research mode measurements of cloud liquid water, cloud droplet radius, and number density. The Raman Airborne Spectroscopic Lidar (RASL) system was installed in a Beechcraft King Air B200 aircraft and was flown over the mid-Atlantic United States during July August 2007 at altitudes ranging between 5 and 8 km. During these flights, despite suboptimal laser performance and subaperture use of the telescope, all RASL measurement expectations were met, except that of aerosol extinction. Following the Water Vapor Validation Experiment Satellite/Sondes (WAVES_2007) field campaign in the summer of 2007, RASL was installed in a mobile trailer for groundbased use during the Measurements of Humidity and Validation Experiment (MOHAVE-II) field campaign held during October 2007 at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory s Table Mountain Facility in southern California. This ground-based configuration of the lidar hardware is called Atmospheric Lidar for Validation, Interagency Collaboration and Education (ALVICE). During theMOHAVE-II field campaign, during which only nighttime measurements were made, ALVICE demonstrated significant sensitivity to lower-stratospheric water vapor. Numerical simulation and comparisons with a cryogenic frost-point hygrometer are used to demonstrate that a system with the performance characteristics of RASL ALVICE should indeed be able to quantify water vapor well into the lower stratosphere with extended averaging from an elevated location like Table Mountain. The same design considerations that optimize Raman lidar for airborne use on a small research aircraft are, therefore, shown to yield significant dividends in the quantification of lower-stratospheric water vapor. The MOHAVE-II measurements, along with numerical simulation, were used to determine that the likely reason for the suboptimal airborne aerosol extinction performance during theWAVES_2007 campaign was amisaligned interference filter. With full laser power and a properly tuned interference filter,RASL is shown to be capable ofmeasuring themain water vapor and aerosol parameters with temporal resolutions of between 2 and 45 s and spatial resolutions ranging from 30 to 330 m from a flight altitude of 8 km with precision of generally less than 10%, providing performance that is competitive with some airborne Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) water vapor and High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) aerosol instruments. The use of diode-pumped laser technology would improve the performance of an airborne Raman lidar and permit additional instrumentation to be carried on board a small research aircraft. The combined airborne and ground-based measurements presented here demonstrate a level of versatility in Raman lidar that may be impossible to duplicate with any other single lidar technique.

Whiteman, David N.↗

Early Ultraviolet Observations of Type IIn Supernovae Constrain the Asphericity of Their Circumstellar Material

We present a survey of the early evolution of 12 Type IIn supernovae (SNe IIn) at ultraviolet and visible light wavelengths. We use this survey to constrain the geometry of the circumstellar material (CSM) surrounding SN IIn explosions, which may shed light on their progenitor diversity. In order to distinguish between aspherical and spherical CSM, we estimate the blackbody radius temporal evolution of the SNe IIn of our sample, following the method introduced by Soumagnac et al. We find that higher-luminosity objects tend to show evidence for aspherical CSM. Depending on whether this correlation is due to physical reasons or to some selection bias, we derive a lower limit between 35% and 66% for the fraction of SNe IIn showing evidence for aspherical CSM. This result suggests that asphericity of the CSM surrounding SNe IIn is common—consistent with data from resolved images of stars undergoing considerable mass loss. It should be taken into account for more realistic modeling of these events.

Maayane T Soumagnac↗

The Dripping Handrail Model: Transient Chaos in Accretion Systems

We define and study a simple dynamical model for accretion systems, the "dripping handrail" (DHR). The time evolution of this spatially extended system is a mixture of periodic and apparently random (but actually deterministic) behavior. The nature of this mixture depends on the values of its physical parameters - the accretion rate, diffusion coefficient, and density threshold. The aperiodic component is a special kind of deterministic chaos called transient chaos. The model can simultaneously exhibit both the quasiperiodic oscillations (QPO) and very low frequency noise (VLFN) that characterize the power spectra of fluctuations of several classes of accretion systems in astronomy. For this reason, our model may be relevant to many such astrophysical systems, including binary stars with accretion onto a compact object - white dwarf, neutron star, or black hole - as well as active galactic nuclei. We describe the systematics of the DHR's temporal behavior, by exploring its physical parameter space using several diagnostics: power spectra, wavelet "scalegrams," and Lyapunov exponents. In addition, we note that for large accretion rates the DHR has periodic modes; the effective pulse shapes for these modes - evaluated by folding the time series at the known period - bear a resemblance to the similarly- determined shapes for some x-ray pulsars. The pulsing observed in some of these systems may be such periodic-mode accretion, and not due to pure rotation as in the standard pulsar model.

Young, Karl↗

AIRS-Observed Interrelationships of Anomaly Time-Series of Moist Process-Related Parameters and Inferred Feedback Values on Various Spatial Scales

In the beginning, a good measure of a GMCs performance was their ability to simulate the observed mean seasonal cycle. That is, a reasonable simulation of the means (i.e., small biases) and standard deviations of TODAY?S climate would suffice. Here, we argue that coupled GCM (CG CM for short) simulations of FUTURE climates should be evaluated in much more detail, both spatially and temporally. Arguably, it is not the bias, but rather the reliability of the model-generated anomaly time-series, even down to the [C]GCM grid-scale, which really matter. This statement is underlined by the social need to address potential REGIONAL climate variability, and climate drifts/changes in a manner suitable for policy decisions.

Molnar, Gyula I.↗