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EXERGETIC: De-Risking Next-Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via At-Scale Evaluation Using Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation

The DOE-GTO-funded project, award number 5.1.2.12, entitled "EXERGETIC - De-risking Next Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via at-Scale Evaluation Using a Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation," advances the solution to these challenges by developing and validating a geothermal co-emulation environment implemented at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR)'s Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) platform. This framework enables the de-risking of next-generation geothermal and geothermal hybrid systems through high-fidelity modeling, real-time digital emulation, advanced control strategies, and techno-economic assessment. The project focused on geothermal hybrid configurations that integrate geothermal power plants with concentrated solar power and underground thermal energy storage, enabling enhanced efficiency, flexibility, and grid support capabilities. The main goal of this project was the development of a geothermal digital co-emulation environment to demonstrate the technical and economic value of geothermal hybrid systems and their contribution to grid stability and flexibility. The EXERGETIC framework combined physics-based models, controls, and real assets at ARIES, including digital real-time simulators (DRTS), a 20-MW-scale controllable grid interface (CGI), and a 2-MW conventional generator. Detailed transient models were developed for the key subsystems of a hybrid geothermal plant, including parabolic trough solar collectors, reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES), and a binary Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) power plant. The ORC model explicitly captured thermal inertia and off-design operation and integrated control strategies to dynamically respond to electric load profiles. The models were validated against published experimental and numerical studies, demonstrating strong agreement and confirming the accuracy and robustness of the modeling approach. The resulting digital twin represents geothermal-solar-storage systems at multiple scales (1 MW to 100 MW) and enables realistic emulation of grid-connected operation. The control architecture allows the geothermal resource to provide stable baseload generation, while solar and stored thermal energy supply flexible, dispatchable support during periods of high demand or variable grid conditions. A key contribution of the EXERGETIC project is the demonstration that geothermal hybrid systems can be designed to be active grid assets rather than passive baseload generators. Using the ARIES platform, the digital twin was evaluated under multiple grid scenarios, including load following, voltage support at the distribution level, and frequency response at the transmission level. Results show that hybrid geothermal systems can respond effectively to dynamic grid conditions, providing inertia-like behavior, primary frequency support, and voltage regulation through coordinated control. In addition to the performance and grid services capability analysis of geothermal and hybrid geothermal systems, the EXERGETIC project also focused on scalability and techno-economic analysis of geothermal hybrid plants. In particular, for the scalability analysis, machine-learning (ML)-based surrogate models were trained using data generated from the geothermal digital twin under different grid-connected scenarios and plant capacities. These ML models demonstrated strong interpolation and extrapolation capabilities across plant sizes, accurately reproducing both steady-state and transient responses with very low errors. Regarding the techno-economic analysis, plant performance results were integrated with cost models for hybrid geothermal systems, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) was used as the main economic metric to evaluate system performance across a range of system capacities, solar shares, solar multiples, and storage durations. Results indicate that economies of scale significantly reduce geothermal LCOE as plant capacity increases, with large-scale systems (25-100 MW) achieving substantially lower costs than small plants. Hybridization with solar thermal energy and storage further improves economic performance by increasing capacity utilization and enabling flexible dispatch. In addition, thermal storage plays a critical role in reducing LCOE by maximizing geothermal, solar, and stored energy resources. In summary, the results from this project demonstrate that geothermal hybrid systems represent a promising alternative for increasing the energy conversion efficiency of geothermal technologies, contributing to the preservation of geothermal resources, and supporting the transition of geothermal plants from traditional baseload resources into flexible, resilient, and cost-competitive energy conversion technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

The Telecommunications and Data Acquisition Progress Report 42-74

This publication reports on developments in programs managed by JPL's office of Telecommunications and Data Acquisition (TDA). In space communications, radio navigation, radio science, and ground based radio astronomy, it reports on activities of the Deep Space Network (DSN) and its associated Ground Communications Facility (GCF) in planning, in supporting research and technology, in implementation and in operations. In geodynamics, the publication reports on the application of radio interferometry at microwave frequencies for geodynamic measurements. This publication also reports on implementation and operations for searching the microwave spectrum.

E C Posner

Thermal Disorder‐Induced Strain and Carrier Localization Activate Reverse Halide Segregation

The reversal of halide ions is studied under various conditions. However, the underlying mechanism of heat-induced reversal remains unclear. This work finds that dynamic disorder-induced localization of self-trapped polarons and thermal disorder-induced strain (TDIS) can be co-acting drivers of reverse segregation. Localization of polarons results in an order of magnitude decrease in excess carrier density (polaron population), causing a reduced impact of the light-induced strain (LIS – responsible for segregation) on the perovskite framework. Meanwhile, exposing the lattice to TDIS exceeding the LIS can eliminate the photoexcitation-induced strain gradient, as thermal fluctuations of the lattice can mask the LIS strain. Under continuous 0.1 W cm -2 illumination (upon segregation), the strain disorder is estimated to be 0.14%, while at 80 °C under dark conditions, the strain is 0.23%. However, in situ heating of the segregated film to 80 °C under continuous illumination (upon reversal) increases the total strain disorder to 0.25%, where TDIS is likely to have a dominant contribution. Therefore, the contribution of entropy to the system's free energy is likely to dominate, respectively. Various temperature-dependent in situ measurements and simulations further support the results. These findings highlight the importance of strain homogenization for designing stable perovskites under real-world operating conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Nanostructuring and Underscreening of Bisalt Electrolytes with Dual-Anion Effects: Insights from Small-Angle Scattering Prepeak Analysis

Using small-angle neutron scattering, we studied the nanostructure of a prototypical D(H)-bonded network electrolyte, alkaline sodium aluminate bisalt, at concentrations up to solute volume fraction of ~0.5. Analysis of the structure factor prepeak at 0.1 < Q < 1.0 Å-1 showed that its evolution is associated with nanoscopic species distribution in water-anion network., with differences in characteristic distance d between OD- and Al(OD)4- anions related to their distinct sizes and interactions. When the solute volume fraction approached 0.5, a common/maximum value of ~4.5 Å was found for the correlation length ? that characterizes the electrostatic force in concentrated electrolyte solution before precipitation occurred. This implies that the solutions’ morphology and behavior at high concentrations may be governed by geometric factors, rather than the chemistry of the specific anion. Furthermore, the scaling of ? with concentration yielded an exponent of 1.25(1), suggesting that ? is limited to a few Å. By combining the current observations of structural heterogeneity at the nanoscale, with dynamic heterogeneity at the microscopic scale from our previous quasi-elastic neutron scattering study, we have established a structural origin of local “caging” and restricted structural relaxation processes. These local solvent-solute interactions not only control dynamics heterogeneity in concentrated electrolytes but also are responsible for crystallization processes in industrial setting, such as aluminum production and radioactive waste treatment.

Wang, Hsiu-Wen

Reduction of baseplate distortion during directed energy deposition using compliant features

Distortion in additive manufacturing (AM) remains a barrier to its adoption in precision industries. Baseplate warpage is one such issue which compromises the feasibility of post-process precision machining. The restriction to thermal contraction of the deposited part, imposed by the baseplate, generates bending moments, that in turn causes warpage. A novel distortion mitigation strategy using baseplates with integrated compliant features, which enables thermal contraction of the build is presented. Six unique design concepts are evaluated, including a solid reference, using two deposition geometries. A laser, hot-wire, directed energy deposition (DED) process is used to deposit a symmetric cylindrical part (C-part) and a T-shaped asymmetric part (T-part). Flatness deviation of baseplates is measured using structured light 3D scanning. Measurements reveal a reduction in net flatness deviation of 58.8% for the C-part and 40.9% for the T-part, compared to the solid reference. While most designs yielded reductions exceeding 30% and 20% for the C- and T-parts, respectively, one configuration resulted in increased deviation. Finite element (FE) simulations are performed to elucidate the underlying mechanisms affecting distortion of compliant baseplates during DED. Despite variations between predictions and measurements, agreement in the general trend is observed. It also revealed that initial flatness errors in baseplates significantly affect its deviation during deposition. Predictions indicate that compliant features significantly affect the thermal distribution as well as the evolution of flatness deviation in the baseplate during deposition. Notably, one design exhibited a reduction in distortion during cooling, following its initial increase during deposition. FE predictions show a maximum reduction of 60.9% and 38.8% in net flatness deviation for the C- and T-parts, respectively. The performance of compliant baseplates is found to be governed by both its the thermal and mechanical characteristics, which are crucial factors to be considered during design.

Mathews, Ritin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000301440828)

Benchmarking Bayesian Optimization Frameworks and Acquisition Strategies for Materials Discovery and Autonomous Laboratories

Bayesian optimization (BO) can accelerate materials discovery by guiding expensive experiments toward the most promising processing conditions. We systematically compare five BO surrogate and framework combinations (Gaussian processes in Ax, Gaussian processes and Monte-Carlo neural networks in BayBE, random forests in Lolopy, and tree-structured Parzen (TPE) estimators in Hyperopt) on three benchmarks that mimic common materials design tasks (a discrete solid-electrolyte composition space, a hybrid discrete/continuous laminate-composite design problem solved with micromechanics modeling, and the continuous Ishigami analytic function which is a standard optimization benchmark). Each BO surrogate is paired with posterior mean, probability of improvement, and expected improvement acquisition functions and run for 100 trials from randomized initial samples with uniform random search providing a control. Across five random seeds per setting, BayBE’s Gaussian-process surrogate with expected improvement consistently reached ≥95 % of the known optimum in the fewest evaluations, while Lolopy’s random forest matched or exceeded GP performance on purely categorical or mixed spaces at a higher computational cost. Posterior mean alone often stagnated at local optima, underscoring the need for exploration, whereas probability and expected improvement balanced exploration and exploitation leading to better optimization in fewer trials. Execution times ranged from milliseconds for TPE to minutes for neural-network and random-forest surrogates. These results establish baseline expectations for BO in automated materials laboratories and highlight expected improvement with Gaussian processes as a reliable first choice, with random forests offering a strong alternative when categorical variables dominate. The benchmark suite and code are released to facilitate future surrogate, acquisition, and constraint-handling research in data-driven materials optimization.

Bayesian optimization

Development of a High Force Thermal Latch

This paper describes the preliminary development of a high force thermal latch (HFTL). The HFTL has one moving part which is restrained in the latched position by a low melting temperature or fusible metal alloy. When heated the fusible alloy flows to a receiving chamber and in so doing at first releases the tension load in the latch bolt and later releases the bolt itself. The HFTL can be used in place of pyrotechnically activated spacecraft release devices in those instances where the elimination of both pyrotechnic shock-loading and rapid strain-energy release take precedence over the near instantaneous release offered by ordnance initiated devices.

William D Nygren

Quality and Loss Factor Characterization of YBCO Superconducting Transmission Lines for Axion Dark Matter Detection

Axion haloscope experiments aim to detect the conversion of axions into microwave photons under a strong magnetic field through resonant cavity techniques. The conversion produces an extremely small signal, requiring a cryogenic environment to reduce thermal noise, and low-loss superconducting transmission lines for minimal attenuation in the readout chain. Yttrium barium copper oxide (YBCO) cables are a promising candidate. Unlike commonly used low-loss cryogenic cables such as niobium (Nb) and niobium titanium (NbTi), which have low critical fields, YBCO is a high-temperature superconductor that can remain stable in strong magnetic fields. We characterized the quality and loss of five stripline resonators from the Brookhaven Technology Group: three YBCO, a copper reference, and a silver reference. Experimental methodology included collecting scattering parameter data on a vector network analyzer for the samples at 77 K along with room temperature baseline measurements, and employing both Lorentzian-fit and circle-fitting techniques to confirm the coupling regime and corroborate results. We achieved quality factors on the order of $10^3$ with corresponding loss factors on the order of $10^{-1}$ dB/m. Trends were comparable with literature data on Nb and NbTi at 4 K, which did have lower loss under these conditions, but suggested similar or perhaps better loss for YBCO when accounting for the temperature difference. We also developed a cryogenic probe for future measurements in a 14 T applied field at 30 mK. This will serve to directly evaluate YBCO's durability in magnetic fields, and we expect significantly improved performance at millikelvin temperatures.

Marinos, Z. [UCLA]

Thermally induced mimicry of quantum cluster excitations and implications for the magnetic transition in FePSe 3

In two dimensional magnets, the interplay of thermal fluctuations and spin anisotropy control the existence of long-range magnetic order. In the van der Waals antiferromagnets FePX 3 , orbital degeneracy in the 𝑡 2⁢𝑔 levels of the Fe 2+ ions in octahedral coordination yields strong uniaxial anisotropy, which stabilizes magnetic order up to 𝑇 ≈ 100 K. Recent inelastic neutron scattering measurements around the magnetic ordering transition have shown the existence of a broad spectrum of magnetic fluctuations with nontrivial momentum dependence, which has been interpreted as evidence for localized entangled cluster excitations. In this paper, we offer an alternative interpretation using classical nonlinear spin dynamics simulations. We present stochastic Landau Lifshitz dynamics simulations that reproduce the neutron scattering measurements of Chen et al. [npj Quantum Mater. 9, 40 (2024)] on FePSe 3 . These calculations faithfully explain the dynamical structure factor's momentum and energy dependence and point to a classical origin for the excitations observed in neutron spectroscopy and that the order-disorder transition can be understood in terms of thermal fluctuations overcoming the anisotropy energy.

Landau-Lifschitz-Gilbert equation

A strong and ductile Super Kovar alloy via fully coherent nanoprecipitates

Emerging high-precision technologies demand materials with exceptional dimensional stability and mechanical robustness, as even microscopic thermomechanical deformation can cause functional failure. However, a fundamental trilemma exists: High strength, ductility, and low thermal expansion are mutually exclusive, as strengthening-induced lattice distortions compromise the spin-lattice coupling, which is essential for low thermal expansion. Here, we overcome this trilemma by designing “Super Kovar,” an Fe-Ni-Co-Al-Ta alloy, featuring fully coherent nanoprecipitates. It unifies a 1.0-gigapascal ultimate tensile strength and ∼39% elongation with a Kovar-grade thermal expansion of 3.81 × 10−6 K−1 (100 to 410 K). The key is a dense dispersion of L12 nanoprecipitates that form an almost strain-free coherent interface with the ferromagnetic matrix. Beyond providing precipitation strengthening, these coherent interfaces suppress intrinsic phonons of nanoprecipitates via elastic coupling while avoiding magnetic domain pinning to preserve the Invar effect of the matrix. This reduces the thermal expansion of the precipitates by 56% and achieves a fourfold enhancement in the strength-ductility product, establishing a paradigm for dimensionally stable, ultrastrong alloys.

Yu, Chengyi [University of Science and Technology

Highly Porous Polyimide Gel for Use as Battery Separator with Room Temperature Ionic Liquid Electrolytes

Advanced aerospace vehicular concepts require advances in many existing technologies, including space power and energy storage systems. Batteries represent one of the major areas in need of improvement, both in terms of energy density and safety, with growing concerns over the fire safety of commercial lithium-ion batteries. This has prompted efforts to develop nonflammable battery components, namely the electrolyte and separator. Existing commercial lithium-ion batteries utilize polyolefin microporous membranes as separators with an electrolyte consisting of a lithium salt dissolved in a mixture of cyclic carbonate solvents. This separator/electrolyte combination has ionic conductivities in the range of 10 −2 to 10 −3 S/cm. However, the cyclic carbonate solvents are inherently flammable. Room-temperature ionic liquids (RTILs) appear to be a safer alternative. They offer good ionic conductivities and are inherently nonvolatile and nonflammable, giving them a safety advantage. However, many promising RTILs for battery electrolytes are not compatible with commercial polyolefin separator materials. Alternative separator materials, such as polyimides, are non-flammable and are capable of accepting RTILs into their structure. Polyimide gels, with a composition of 4,4′-oxydianiline, 3,3′,4,4′-tetracarboxylic dianhydride and cross-linked with Desmodur N3300A, possess an open-porous, fibrillar network architecture which offers a high degree of porosity (typically greater than 85% porosity) for lithium-ion transport and conduction, as well as good mechanical properties. Furthermore, these polyimide gels are compatible with selected imidazolium-based RTILs. Nonflammable separator/electrolyte systems with room-temperature conductivities in the range of 10 −3 S/cm have been evaluated. It has been demonstrated that 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide was the most promising among six RTILs screened, in terms of both ionic conductivity and constant current cycling.

Polyimide

Physics-Guided Deep Learning for Complex System Health Management and Decision Making

The landscape of complex engineered systems is rapidly evolving, from smart manufacturing facilities to next-generation transportation vehicles. As these systems become increasingly sophisticated and interconnected, the need for advanced health management systems grows ever more critical. These systems must go beyond simple monitoring, actively predicting potential failures before they occur. This paradigm shift from fixed maintenance schedules to condition-based predictions is key to optimizing system performance, enhancing safety, and paving the way for autonomous decision-making across various industries. Whether in industrial processes, energy systems, or advanced transportation, the ability to anticipate and prevent failures is becoming a cornerstone of operational excellence. To accurately predict the future health of any complex system, knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions is essential. Recent advancements in data-driven algorithms have generated growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. However, the limitations of pure data-driven methods, particularly in industries where data acquisition is costly and limited, have become apparent. This has led to a focus on blending physics with data-driven algorithms, mitigating the drawbacks of both approaches while emphasizing their respective advantages. This research proposes a novel framework for integrating physics-based performance models with deep learning algorithms for the prognostics of complex safety-critical systems. In this approach, physics-based models serve as a blueprint, capturing fundamental system behaviors, while deep learning algorithms, leveraging real-world sensor data, fill in gaps and identify subtle patterns indicative of potential problems. This hybrid methodology, utilizing techniques such as Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), offers a powerful solution for predicting system health. By fusing domain knowledge with data-driven insights, this approach promises more accurate, adaptable, and reliable models for health prediction. The resulting framework is versatile, applicable across various sectors including aerospace, manufacturing, and energy systems, ultimately contributing to safer, more efficient operations in our increasingly complex technological landscape.

Diagnostics

Ejecta Management in a Safe Lithium Ion Battery Design

As lithium-ion battery energy densities continue to rise, managing the heat and pressure generated during failure events has become increasingly critical. Safety systems must effectively relieve pressure without releasing sparks, flames, or particulate matter, requiring robust filtration solutions. The challenge is compounded by the reduced free volume available for gas expansion in high-density designs, which increases the demands on these filters. While significant progress has been made through experimental studies and modeling efforts to understand the behavior of ejecta during battery failures, there remains a pressing need for practical, rule-of-thumb sizing parameters. These parameters would help correlate high-energy waste streams with appropriate filter design, ensuring reliable containment and safety. This talk will explore recent experimental findings in this area and discuss the potential pathways for developing these essential sizing guidelines.

Ejecta Management

Strong Thermoset Regolith UV-Curable Composite Technology (STRUCT) Overview

Future lunar surface missions require construction materials that can be manufactured in situ using lo-cal resources while operating under extreme environmental conditions. Many Lunar material demands can be solved solely with regolith by compacting or sintering. And yet past Lunar missions rely on polymeric materials, and sustained Lunar missions must reduce Earth-supplied polymers dependence. Dual-cure (Ultraviolet (UV) and thermal) polymer-regolith composites offer a promising pathway by leveraging solar UV radiation, moderate thermal in-put, and regolith. Mission mass limits, power availability and energy constraints on the lunar surface further motivate low-energy processing and curing strategies for surface construction materials. The Strong Thermoset Regolith UV-Curable Composite Technology (STRUCT) project has successfully synthesized and demonstrated dual-cure photopolymer resins derivable from in-situ resources [3]. Morphological, thermal, and mechanical characterization show that the newly formulated UV curable resin systems integrates well with lunar regolith simulants. Processing and chemistry changes, and computational analysis advanced the composite design. X-ray CT scanned and computational analysis demonstrate that resin, regolith and additives are well incorporated. The large fraction of regolith, 95% by mass, large char yield (82% mass), low thermal conductivity (0.26 W/m/K), confirm this material as a promising high-performance thermal and structural material.

thermal conductivity

Mechanical, Electrochemical & Thermal Models - Training (CRADA CRD-19-00798 Final Report)

Under the proposed effort in partnership with Hyundai Motor Company (HMC), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NLR) will host Dr. Jaeyoung Lim from HMC for a period of one year to jointly develop mathematical models for battery cells and modules subject to mechanical crush. NLR will assist with the development of mathematical models that Dr. Lim will incorporate into his research effort on new concepts of mobility with electric vehicles.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

Modeling Occupant Core Temperatures Across the Boston Building Stock to Advance Public Health

In recent history, extreme heat has been the cause of most deaths from a natural disaster. Exposure to extreme heat can aggravate preexisting conditions, increase hospitalization, and even cause death. Thus, modeling the thermal resilience of households across the United States will allow for a quantitative assessment of the health and safety risks posed by extreme heat. For the first time, we simulate occupant comfort in representative households across Boston by combining the granular results of the ResStock(TM) model with a two-node heat strain model. This model calculates occupants' core body temperature in each simulated household over a year. We compare the simulated core temperatures to two public health metrics: hyperthermia and heat stroke. Our results show for households in Boston that do not have or use aid conditioning, thousands potentially experience many dangerous heat events each summer and these events can last for more than a day at a time. These heat events peak during the late afternoon and evening, just as residents are coming home, cooking meals, and trying to go to sleep. We have found that multi-family buildings, renters, and low-income homes in more airtight and insulated homes are the most at risk for these events. These results demonstrate the scale and urgency of exposure to extreme heat.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Detecting thermodynamic phase transition via explainable machine learning of photoemission spectroscopy

Identifying thermodynamic signatures of electronic phases, such as superconductivity, is challenging in low-dimensional materials due to strong fluctuations and low probing volume. Spectroscopic methods are often used to identify new bulk phases, but their main measurable quantity—electronic energy gaps—is no longer an effective order parameter in low-dimensional and fluctuating systems. Combining angle-resolved photoemission with a domain-adversarial neural network, we report a data-driven method to identify thermodynamic phase transitions solely based on single-particle spectra. We demonstrate 97.6% accuracy in cuprate superconductor Bi 2 Sr 2 CaCu 2 O 8+δ with strong superconducting fluctuations. This model notably compensates for the scarcity of experimental data by leveraging virtually inexhaustible simulated data. Further, its explainability reveals the crucial role of in-gap spectral weight in detecting phase fluctuations and thermodynamic transitions. Our work pinpoints the spectroscopic signatures of fluctuating orders and enables using spectroscopy for machine-learning-assisted material discovery for low-dimensional and strong coupling systems.

2D materials

Mars Sample Retrieval Lander Thermal Protection System Design

The Mars Sample Return (MSR) Sample Retrieval Lander (SRL) was slated to launch in 2031 and enter Mars’ atmosphere after a 15-month cruise. After several iterations of vehicle design and trajectories, the latest mission architecture included a 4.72-meter diameter entry capsule entering the Martian atmosphere at 8 km/s, marking a 3.5x increase in kinetic energy when entering the atmosphere in comparison to Mars 2020. Designed to be the heaviest and fastest vehicle to enter Mars’ atmosphere, SRL required slim mass margins, and as such, the thermal protection system (TPS) design methodology needed to be tailored appropriately. The entry capsule aeroshell is composed of a heatshield, backshell, parachute support cone, and parachute lid, as shown in Fig. 1.

Hannah Alpert