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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Decomposing a Compound Flood Event in an Urban Pacific Northwest Estuary: Primary Drivers and Projections for the Future

The Duwamish River Estuary (DRE) of Washington is prone to compound flooding during atmospheric river (AR) events. The processes contributing to such flooding (coastal and fluvial) have remained opaque to municipalities that are increasingly impacted. Here, we conduct a suite of coupled atmosphere-hydrology-ocean model simulations with varying forcing combinations (tide, surge, and/or river discharge) to identify the primary drivers of compound flooding during a recent AR event. We also test year 2,100 climate forcing to project how flooding and drivers may change in the future for the same event. We identify a clear distinction between dynamics in the downstream, engineered portion of the DRE compared to the upstream, “natural” river. Downstream, tides dominate water levels but contributions from storm surge and nonlinear tide-surge interaction elevate tide-only high waters from no flooding to major flooding. Upstream, total water levels during the event are ∼6 cm higher than downstream due to an increasing influence of river discharge over surge and tides. Notably, nonlinear surge-river and tide-river interactions act to reduce upstream water levels up to 50% compared to estimates which linearly sum tides, surge, and river, likely reducing flood vulnerability. Under two future climate scenarios: one with only sea level rise (SLR) and another with SLR plus atmospheric warming, we find little change in mechanism contributions to water levels. Expanded flooding in both cases is largely due to SLR, as a ∼50% increase to river discharge under the warming scenario has no impact downstream and marginally increases (∼3 cm) water level upstream.

atmospheric river↗
NASA NTRS1999

Refinement of Models for VLBI Analysis

Continual refinement of models and estimation methods is an integral part of improving VLBI measurements of Earth orientation and position along with advances in instrumentation and observing strategy. The modeling of the troposphere continues to be challenging with recent improvements in treating the mean gradient and gradient variations affecting the terrestrial reference frame scale and celestial declinations near the current limits of accuracy. Revised models of nutation and solid Earth tides are implemented in CALC 9.0 to conform to the latest IERS Conventions along with other changes to facilitate use by VLBI correlators. Using data since 1995 the celestial reference frame has been extended and improved consistent with the definition and 0.25 mas accuracy limit of the ICRF. The current definition of the VLBI terrestrial reference frame places a floor on the accuracy of station velocities at the 0.4 mm/yr level. The establishment of the IVS (International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry) in the past year will provide a forum for further improvements of VLBI data analysis.

Ma, C.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Modeling Planetary Waves in the Middle Atmosphere

In our 3D Numerical Spectral Model (NSM) that incorporates the Doppler Spread Parameterization of Hines, planetary waves are generated with zonal wavenumbers 1-4 that have amplitudes as large as 25 m/s and periods between 50 and 2 days. The waves are generated spontaneously, i.e., without external source, and presumably represent normal modes. Numerical experiments are discussed to shed light on the generation mechanisms. For the wavenumbers 1 and 2 with periods primarily between 4 and 15 days, both eastward and westward propagating waves are generated and their amplitudes are affected significantly by the gravity wave source. For the wavenumbers, 3 and 4 in the upper mesosphere, the waves are virtually monochromatic, with periods around 2.5 days and they propagate westward. These waves behave like Rossby gravity waves; their amplitudes are largest during solstice where the baroclinic instability is playing an important role, but the waves decay when the gravity wave momentum source is turned off. The planetary waves generated in the model produce large amplitude modulations of the diurnal tides at altitudes above 80 km, but contrary to expectations they are not playing an important role for the seasonal variations of the tides. Preliminary results show that such Rossby gravity waves are also generated near the tropopause and are influencing significantly the QBO that is generated in the model.

Mengel, J. G.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Fortnightly Ocean Tides, Earth Rotation, and Mantle Anelasticity

The fortnightly Mf ocean tide is the largest of the long-period tides (periods between 1 week and 18.6 years), but Mf is still very small, generally 2 cm or less. All long-period tides are thought to be near equilibrium with the astronomical tidal potential, with an almost pure zonal structure. However, several lines of evidence point to Mf having a significant dynamic response to forcing. We use a combination of numerical modeling, satellite altimetry, and observations of polar motion to determine the Mf ocean tide and to place constraints on certain global properties, such as angular momentum. Polar motion provides the only constraints on Mf tidal currents. With a model of the Mf ocean tide in hand, we use it to remove the effects of the ocean from estimates of fortnightly variations in length-of-day. The latter is dominated by the earth's body tide, but a small residual allows us to place new constraints on the anelasticity of the earth's mantle. The result gives the first experimental confirmation of theoretical predictions made by Wahr and Bergen in 1986.

Ray, Richard↗
NASA NTRS1989

The Atmospheric Tides Middle Atmosphere Program (ATMAP)

Atmospheric tides, oscillations in meteorological fields occurring at subharmonics of a solar or lunar day, comprise a major component of middle atmosphere global dynamics. The purpose of the 1982 to 1986 Atmospheric Tides Atmosphere Program (ATMAP) was to foster an interaction between experimentalists, data analysts, and theoreticians and modelers, in order to better understand the physical mechanisms governing tides and their relationships to other scales of motion, and to thereby explain features of observed tidal structures in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. The ATMAP consisted of seven observational campaigns, five workshops and a climatological study. A historical perspective is provided along with a summary of major results, conclusions, and recommendations for future study which have emerged from the ATMAP.

Forbes, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Gravitational model improvement at the Goddard Space Flight Center

Major new computations of terrestrial gravitational field models were performed by the Geodynamics Branch of Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). This development has incorporated the present state of the art results in satellite geodesy and have relied upon a more consistent set of reference constants than was heretofore utilized in GSFC's GEM models. The solutions are complete in spherical harmonic coefficients out to degree 50 for the gravity field parameters. These models include adjustment for a subset of 66 ocean tidal coefficients for the long wavelength components of 12 major ocean tides. This tidal adjustment was made in the presence of 550 other fixed ocean tidal terms representing 32 major and minor ocean tides and the Wahr frequency dependent solid earth tidal model. In addition 5-day averaged values for Earth rotation and polar motion were derived for the time period of 1980 onward. Two types of models were computed. These are satellite only models relying exclusively on tracking data and combination models which have incorporated satellite altimetry and surface gravity data. The satellite observational data base consists of over 1100 orbital arcs of data on 31 satellites. A large percentage of these observations were provided by third generation laser stations (less than 5 cm). A calibration of the model accuracy of the GEM-T2 satellite only solution indicated that it was a significant improvement over previous models based solely upon tracking data. The rms geoid error for this field is 110 cm to degree and order 36. This is a major advancement over GEM-T1 whose errors were estimated to be 160 cm. An error propagation using the covariances of the GEM-T2 model for the TOPEX radial orbit component indicates that the rms radial errors are expected to be 12 cm. The combination solution, PGS-3337, is a preliminary effort leading to the development of GEM-T3. PGS-3337 has incorporated global sets of surface gravity data and the Seasat altimetry to produce a model complete to (50,50). A solution for the dynamic ocean topography to degree and order 10 was included as part of this adjustment.

Marsh, J. G.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Nineteenth‐Century Tides in the Gulf of Maine and Implications for Secular Trends

Since the early twentieth century, the amplitudes of tidal constituents in the Gulf of Maine and Bay of Fundy display clear secular trends that are among the largest anywhere observed for a regional body of water. The M2 amplitude at Eastport, Maine, increased at a rate of 14.1 ± 1.2 cm per century until it temporarily dropped during 1980–1990, apparently in response to changes in the wider North Atlantic. Annual tidal analyses indicate M2 reached an all‐time high amplitude last year (2018). Here we report new estimates of tides derived from nineteenth century water‐level measurements found in the U.S. National Archives. Results from Eastport, Portland, and Pulpit Harbor (tied to Bar Harbor) do not follow the twentieth century trends and indicate that the Gulf of Maine tide changes commenced sometime in the late nineteenth or early twentieth centuries, coincident with a transition to modern rates of sea‐level rise as observed at Boston and Portland. General agreement is that sea level rise alone is insufficient to cause the twentieth‐century tide changes. A role for ocean stratification is suggested by the long‐term warming of Gulf of Maine waters; archival water temperatures at Boston, Portland, and Eastport show increases of ∼2 °C since the 1880s. In addition, a changing seasonal dependence in M2 amplitudes is reflected in a changing seasonal dependence in water temperatures. The observations suggest that models seeking to reproduce Gulf of Maine tides must consider both sea level rise and long‐term changes in stratification.

Ray, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1986

The effects of mantle and anelasticity on nutations, earth tides, and tidal variations in rotation rate

The paper models the effects of mantle anelasticity on luni-solar nutations, on tidal deformation, on tidal variations in rotation rate, and on the eigenfrequency of the free core nutation. The results can be used to invert observations to solve for the anelastic contributions to the shear and bulk moduli of the upper and lower mantle. Specific anelastic models are used to numerically estimate the effects of anelasticity on these geodetic observables. The nutation estimates are compared with observational results. Among the conclusions: (1) mantle anelasticity is likely to be the most important source of damping for the free core nutation; (2) present VLBI nutation results are, in principle, accurate enough to usefully bound anelasticity at diurnal periods. But the discrepancy between the VLBI observed nutations and the 1984 IAU nutation model cannot be explained by anelasticity and is not yet well enough understood to allow anelasticity to be determined from the data.

Wahr, John↗
NASA NTRS2014

Thermal Tides During the 2001 Martian Global-Scale Dust Storm

The 2001 (Mars Year 25) global dust storm radically altered the dynamics of the Martian atmosphere. Using observations from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer onboard the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft and Mars WRF general circulation model simulations, we examine the changes to thermal tides and planetary waves caused by the storm. We find that the extratropical diurnal migrating tide is dramatically enhanced during the storm, particularly in the southern hemisphere, reaching amplitudes of more than 20 K. The tropical diurnal migrating tide is weakened to almost undetectable levels. The diurnal Kelvin waves are also significantly weakened, particularly during the period of global expansion at Ls=200deg-210deg. In contrast, the westward propagating diurnal wavenumber 2 tide strengthens to 4-8 K at altitudes above 30km. The wavenumber 1 stationary wave reaches amplitudes of 10-12 K at 50deg-70degN, far larger than is typically seen during this time of year. The phase of this stationary wave and the enhancement of the diurnal wavenumber 2 tide appear to be responses to the high-altitude westward propagating equatorial wavenumber 1 structure in dust mixing ratio observed during the storm in previous works. This work provides a global picture of dust storm wave dynamics that reveals the coupling between the tropics and high-latitude wave responses. We conclude that the zonal distribution of thermotidal forcing from atmospheric aerosol concentration is as important to understanding the atmospheric wave response as the total global mean aerosol optical depth.

Thermal tides↗
NASA NTRS1984

Numerical simulations of the Ross Sea tides

Tidal currents below the floating Ross Ice shelf are reconstructed by using a numerical tidal model. They are predominantly diurnal, achieve maximum strength in regions near where the ice shelf runs aground, and are significantly enhanced by topographic Rossby wave propagation along the ice front. A comparison with observations of the vertical motion of the ice shelf surface indicates that the model reproduces the diurnal tidal characteristics within 20 percent. Similar agreement for the relatively weak semidiurnal tides was not obtained, and this calls attention to possible errors of the open boundary forcing obtained from global-ocean tidal simulations and to possible errors in mapping zones of ice shelf grounding. Air-sea contact below the ice shelf is eliminated by the thick ice cover. The dominant sub-ice-shelf circulation may thus be tidally induced. A preliminary assessment of sub-ice-shelf conditions based on the numerical tidal simulations suggests that (1) strong barotropic circulation is driven along the ice front and (2) tidal fronts may form in the sub-ice-shelf cavity where the water column is thin and where the buoyancy input is weak.

Macayeal, D. R.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Non-Migrating Diurnal Tides Generated with Planetary Waves in the Mesosphere

We report here the results from a modeling study with our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM) that extends from the ground into thermosphere. The NSM incorporates Hines Doppler Spread Parameterization for small-scale gravity waves (GWs) and describes the major dynamical features of the atmosphere, including the wave driven equatorial oscillations (QBO and SAO), and the seasonal variations of tides and planetary waves. Accounting solely for the solar migrating tidal excitation sources, the NSM generates through dynamical interactions also non-migrating tides in the mesosphere that have amplitudes comparable to those observed. The model produces the diurnal (and semidiurnal) oscillations of the zonal mean (m = 0), and eastward and westward propagating tides for zonal wave numbers m = 1 to 4. To identify the mechanism of excitation for these tides, a numerical experiment is performed. The NSM is run without the heat source for the zonal-mean circulation and temperature variation, and the amplitudes of the resulting nonmigrating tides are then negligibly small. This leads to the conclusion that the planetary waves, which normally are excited in the NSM by instabilities but are suppressed in this case, generate the nonmigrating tides through nonlinear interactions with the migrating tides.

Mayr, H. G.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Simulations of the Surface Pressure Tides on Mars Incorporating New MOLA Topography Data

Simulations of surface pressure tides on Mars have been conducted previously with the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM), as well as by Wilson and Hamilton. In the case of the MGCM, annual simulations with realistic (Viking-derived) dust loading have been reasonably successful at reproducing observed tides at the Viking Lander sites. One obvious discrepancy between observed and simulated tides is the amplification found in the model's diurnal tidal amplitude around L(sub s) 90. The observations show no such amplification. We report here on recent simulations of the surface pressure tide on Mars conducted with the MGCM and with the newly acquired MOLA topography data. The data is provided at 1deg x 1deg resolution, and is used by the MGCM at 7.5deg x 9deg resolution. The vertical domain of the MGCM extends to around 80 km. In the simulations reported in, the vertical domain extended to around 50 km, and the Consortium topography dataset was used. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Bridger, A. F. C.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Analyses of the solid earth and ocean tidal perturbations on the orbits of the Geos 1 and Geos 2 satellites

Perturbations in the inclination of the Geos 1 and Geos 2 satellite orbits have been analyzed for the solid earth and ocean tide contributions. Precision reduced camera and Tranet Doppler observations spanning periods of over 600 days for each satellite were used to derive mean orbital elements. Perturbations due to the earth's gravity field, solar radiation pressure, and atmospheric drag were modeled, and the resulting inclination residuals were analyzed for tidal effects. The amplitudes of the observed total tidal effects were about 1.2 arc sec (36 m) in the inclination of Geos 1 and 4.5 arc sec (135 m) for Geos 2. The solid earth tides were then modeled by using the Love number 0.30. The resulting inclination residuals were then analyzed for ocean tide spherical harmonic parameters.

Felsentreger, T. L.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Present status and future trends in near-Earth satellite orbit determination

The major components of an orbit determination system and the evolution of the elements making up each component are reviewed. Typical accuracies presently achievable in the orbit determination process, the factors limiting the accuracies, and improvements in the dynamic models used in the process are summarized. Models are developed for orbit determination programs which include: (1) time varying area for solar radiation pressure; (2) a time varying model for albedo radiation pressure; (3) Earth tides which account for the distortions in the Earth's body due to Sun and Moon attraction; and (4) ocean tides which affect satellite altimeter data.

Fuchs, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Thermosphere Dynamics Workshop, volume 2

Atmospheric observations reported on include recent measurements of thermospherical composition, gas temperatures, auroral emissions, ion-neutral collisional coupling, electric fields, and plasma convection. Theoretical studies reported on include model calculations of thermospherical general circulation, thermospheric tides, thermospheric tidal coupling to the lower atmosphere, interactions between thermospheic chemistry and dynamics and thermosphere-ionosphere coupling processes. The abstracts provide details given in each talk but the figures represent the fundamental information exchanged within the workshop

Mayr, H. G.↗
NASA NTRS1985

A global geodetic reference frame from Lageos ranging (SL5.1AP)

A summary of the results obtained for a new comprehensive geodetic parameter solution from the analysis of Lageos laser ranging data for the period May 1976 to the end of 1982 is presented. Estimates of each component of the polar motion and earth rotation, the station coordinates, the value of the earth's gravitational constant GM, and the elements of the Lageos orbit comprise this SL5.1AP solution. The results differ from previously published values primarily through incorporation of more rigorous dynamic models for the ocean and solid earth tides. The precision of the geodetic parameters are on average 5-marc sec polar motion, 0.2-ms length of day, better than 5-cm center-of-mass geodetic positioning, 3-cm global baselines, and 2-cm regional baselines. An assessment of the contribution of systematic errors in the interstation distance determination is presented.

Smith, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Nonlinear interaction between the diurnal and semidiurnal tides: Terdiurnal and diurnal secondary waves

Many years of measurements obtained using French meteor radars at Garchy (latitude 47 N) and Montpazier (latitude 44 N) are used to show the existence of an 8 hour oscillation. Some examples of the structure of this wave are displayed and compared with measurements performed at Saskatoon (latitude 52 N) and Budrio (latitude 45 N). This wave can be interpreted as the solar driven terdiurnal tide, or as the result of the nonlinear interaction between the diurnal and semidiurnal tides. Both hypotheses are tested with numerical models. Incidentally, the possible existence of a 24 hour wave resulting from this interaction is also studied.

Teitelbaum, H.↗