Results for “traffic prediction” — Page 9

NASA NTRS2005

Intersection-Controller Software Module

An important part of the emergency-vehicle traffic-light-preemption system summarized in the preceding article is a software module executed by a microcontroller in each intersection controller. This module monitors the broadcasts from all nearby participating emergency vehicles and intersections. It gathers the broadcast data pertaining to the positions and velocities of the vehicles and the timing of traffic and pedestrian lights and processes the data into predictions of the future positions of the vehicles. Analyzing the predictions by a combination of proximity tests, map-matching techniques, and statistical calculations designed to minimize the adverse effects of uncertainties in vehicle positions and headings, the module decides whether to preempt and issues the appropriate commands to the traffic lights, pedestrian lights, and electronic warning signs at the intersection. The module also broadcasts its state to all nearby vehicles and intersections. The module is designed to mitigate the effects of missing data and of unpredictable delays in the system. It has been intensively tested and refined so that it fails to warn in very few cases and issues very few false warnings.

Bachelder, Aaron↗

NASA NTRS1995

Simulating Human Cognition in the Domain of Air Traffic Control

Experiments intended to assess performance in human-machine interactions are often prohibitively expensive, unethical or otherwise impractical to run. Approximations of experimental results can be obtained, in principle, by simulating the behavior of subjects using computer models of human mental behavior. Computer simulation technology has been developed for this purpose. Our goal is to produce a cognitive model suitable to guide the simulation machinery and enable it to closely approximate a human subject's performance in experimental conditions. The described model is designed to simulate a variety of cognitive behaviors involved in routine air traffic control. As the model is elaborated, our ability to predict the effects of novel circumstances on controller error rates and other performance characteristics should increase. This will enable the system to project the impact of proposed changes to air traffic control procedures and equipment on controller performance.

Freed, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2013

Investigating the Complexity of Transitioning Separation Assurance Tools into NextGen Air Traffic Control

In a study, that introduced ground-based separation assurance automation through a series of envisioned transitional phases of concept maturity, it was found that subjective responses to scales of workload, situation awareness, and acceptability in a post run questionnaire revealed as-predicted results for three of the four study conditions but not for the third, Moderate condition. The trend continued for losses of separation (LOS) where the number of LOS events were far greater than expected in the Moderate condition. To offer an account of why the Moderate condition was perceived to be more difficult to manage than predicted, researchers examined the increase in amount and complexity of traffic, increase in communication load, and increased complexities as a result of the simulation's mix of aircraft equipage. Further analysis compared the tools presented through the phases, finding that controllers took advantage of the informational properties of the tools presented but shied away from using their decision support capabilities. Taking into account similar findings from other studies, it is suggested that the Moderate condition represented the first step into a "shared control" environment, which requires the controller to use the automation as a decision making partner rather than just a provider of information. Viewed in this light, the combination of tools offered in the Moderate condition was reviewed and some tradeoffs that may offset the identified complexities were suggested.

separation assurance↗

NASA NTRS2017

High-Fidelity Multi-Rotor Unmanned Aircraft System Simulation Development for Trajectory Prediction Under Off-Nominal Flight Dynamics

The NASA Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) project is conducting research to enable civilian low-altitude airspace and UAS operations. A goal of this project is to develop probabilistic methods to quantify risk during failures and off nominal flight conditions. An important part of this effort is the reliable prediction of feasible trajectories during off-nominal events such as control failure, atmospheric upsets, or navigation anomalies that can cause large deviations from the intended flight path or extreme vehicle upsets beyond the normal flight envelope. Few examples of high-fidelity modeling and prediction of off-nominal behavior for small UAS (sUAS) vehicles exist, and modeling requirements for accurately predicting flight dynamics for out-of-envelope or failure conditions are essentially undefined. In addition, the broad range of sUAS aircraft configurations already being fielded presents a significant modeling challenge, as these vehicles are often very different from one another and are likely to possess dramatically different flight dynamics and resultant trajectories and may require different modeling approaches to capture off-nominal behavior. NASA has undertaken an extensive research effort to define sUAS flight dynamics modeling requirements and develop preliminary high fidelity six degree-of-freedom (6-DOF) simulations capable of more closely predicting off-nominal flight dynamics and trajectories. This research has included a literature review of existing sUAS modeling and simulation work as well as development of experimental testing methods to measure and model key components of propulsion, airframe and control characteristics. The ultimate objective of these efforts is to develop tools to support UTM risk analyses and for the real-time prediction of off-nominal trajectories for use in the UTM Risk Assessment Framework (URAF). This paper focuses on modeling and simulation efforts for a generic quad-rotor configuration typical of many commercial vehicles in use today. An overview of relevant off-nominal multi-rotor behaviors will be presented to define modeling goals and to identify the prediction capability lacking in simplified models of multi-rotor performance. A description of recent NASA wind tunnel testing of multi-rotor propulsion and airframe components will be presented illustrating important experimental and data acquisition methods, and a description of preliminary propulsion and airframe models will be presented. Lastly, examples of predicted off-nominal flight dynamics and trajectories from the simulation will be presented.

Foster, John V.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Parametric Analysis of Surveillance Quality and Level and Quality of Intent Information and Their Impact on Conflict Detection Performance

A loss-of-separation (LOS) is said to occur when two aircraft are spatially too close to one another. A LOS is the fundamental unsafe event to be avoided in air traffic management and conflict detection (CD) is the function that attempts to predict these LOS events. In general, the effectiveness of conflict detection relates to the overall safety and performance of an air traffic management concept. An abstract, parametric analysis was conducted to investigate the impact of surveillance quality, level of intent information, and quality of intent information on conflict detection performance. The data collected in this analysis can be used to estimate the conflict detection performance under alternative future scenarios or alternative allocations of the conflict detection function, based on the quality of the surveillance and intent information under those conditions.Alternatively, this data could also be used to estimate the surveillance and intent information quality required to achieve some desired CD performance as part of the design of a new separation assurance system.

Guerreiro, Nelson M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Design and Evaluation of the Terminal Area Precision Scheduling and Spacing System

This paper describes the design, development and results from a high fidelity human-in-the-loop simulation of an integrated set of trajectory-based automation tools providing precision scheduling, sequencing and controller merging and spacing functions. These integrated functions are combined into a system called the Terminal Area Precision Scheduling and Spacing (TAPSS) system. It is a strategic and tactical planning tool that provides Traffic Management Coordinators, En Route and Terminal Radar Approach Control air traffic controllers the ability to efficiently optimize the arrival capacity of a demand-impacted airport while simultaneously enabling fuel-efficient descent procedures. The TAPSS system consists of four-dimensional trajectory prediction, arrival runway balancing, aircraft separation constraint-based scheduling, traffic flow visualization and trajectory-based advisories to assist controllers in efficient metering, sequencing and spacing. The TAPSS system was evaluated and compared to today's ATC operation through extensive series of human-in-the-loop simulations for arrival flows into the Los Angeles International Airport. The test conditions included the variation of aircraft demand from a baseline of today's capacity constrained periods through 5%, 10% and 20% increases. Performance data were collected for engineering and human factor analysis and compared with similar operations both with and without the TAPSS system. The engineering data indicate operations with the TAPSS show up to a 10% increase in airport throughput during capacity constrained periods while maintaining fuel-efficient aircraft descent profiles from cruise to landing.

Swenson, Harry N.↗

NASA NTRS1980

A methodology for long range prediction of air transportation

The paper describes the methodology for long-time projection of aircraft fuel requirements. A new concept of social and economic factors for future aviation industry which provides an estimate of predicted fuel usage is presented; it includes air traffic forecasts and lead times for producing new engines and aircraft types. An air transportation model is then developed in terms of an abstracted set of variables which represent the entire aircraft industry on a macroscale. This model was evaluated by testing the required output variables from a model based on historical data over the past decades.

Ayati, M. B.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Flyover-Noise Reduction of Commercial Aircraft via Reduced Slat Deflections and Modified Flight Procedures

Current regulation and operation of commercial aircraft result in flyover noise that generates public protest from residents well outside the recognized noise footprint of modern airports. This noise issue was recently exacerbated by the implementation of NextGen air-traffic control which uses GPS-navigation for predictable flight paths and improved efficiency. A side-effect of the narrow flight corridors is a perceived increase in noise level and annoyance experienced by the residents directly under the flight paths. As a possible solution to the community noise issue, the feasibility of a lower slat deflections and modified flight procedures were explored. To document the maximum potential noise reduction, field measurements were conducted on the ground at locations before and after slat deployment. For safety considerations, the stall margin of a lower slat deflection was computed for a realistic geometry based on a modern commercial aircraft. The logistics of setting lower slat angles on current aircraft were also investigated through discussions with the FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) and aircraft manufacturers. The results suggest that community flyover noise could be reduced via lower slat deflections during early approach, but that modifying current aircraft would be difficult due to existing control systems and hurdles in certification. Alternatively, modifications to existing flight procedures could reduce the perceived noise of the NextGen flight patterns. For next generation commercial aircraft, reduced slat deflections could be considered if mandated by FAA noise requirements during early approach.

Storms, Bruce L.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Flight Awareness Collaboration Tool Development

NASA is developing the Flight Awareness Collaboration Tool (FACT) to support airline and airport operations during winter storms. The goal is to reduce flight delays and cancellations due to winter weather. FACT concentrates relevant information from the Internet and FAA databases on one screen for easy access. It provides collaboration tools for those managing the winter weather event including the airline operations center, airport authority (runway treatment), the Federal Aviation Administration air traffic control tower, and de-icing operators. Prediction tools are being added to improve FACT capabilities including one that anticipates changes in airport departure rates from weather forecasts. We have formed two user teams from affected airports to guide the design and evaluate the web-based prototype. Future work includes adding more automated capabilities and conducting a simulation to evaluate FACT in a realistic environment.

Mogford, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2019

Flight Awareness Collaboration Tool

NASA is developing the Flight Awareness Collaboration Tool (FACT) to support airline and airport operations during winter storms. The goal is to reduce flight delays and cancellations due to winter weather. FACT concentrates relevant information from the Internet and FAA databases on one screen for easy access. It provides collaboration tools for those managing the winter weather event including the airline operations center, airport authority (runway treatment), the Federal Aviation Administration air traffic control tower, and de-icing operators. Prediction tools are being added to improve FACT capabilities including one that anticipates changes in airport departure rates from weather forecasts. Future work includes adding more automated capabilities and collaborating with industry.

Mogford, Richard H.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Flight Awareness Collaboration Tool Development

NASA is developing the Flight Awareness Collaboration Tool (FACT) to support airline and airport operations during winter storms. The goal is to reduce flight delays and cancellations due to winter weather. FACT concentrates relevant information from the Internet and FAA databases on one screen for easy access. It provides collaboration tools for those managing the winter weather event including the airline operations center, airport authority (runway treatment), the Federal Aviation Administration air traffic control tower, and de-icing operators. Prediction tools are being added to improve FACT capabilities including one that anticipates changes in airport departure rates from weather forecasts. We have formed two user teams from affected airports to guide the design and evaluate the web-based prototype. Future work includes adding more automated capabilities and conducting a simulation to evaluate FACT in a realistic environment.

Mogford, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2023

Performance Modeling of Urban Air Mobility Vehicles to Support Air Traffic Management Research

The recent emergence of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) vehicles has resulted in a need for flight performance models that enable comprehensive simulation-based research on air traffic management topics such as route structure, scheduling, and separation standards. Successful performance modeling methods exist for a wide range of traditional aircraft designs. However, comparable modeling methods appropriate for UAM vehicles that combine fixed-wing and rotorcraft performance have not yet been established. One challenge to progress has been the lack of available data capturing the performance characteristics and unique flight profiles of these aircraft. This paper describes methods used to generate the required performance data and the development of performance models for UAM vehicles. Included is a review of the energy and power equations often used in developing performance models for traditional aircraft as well as a discussion of their applicability to UAM vehicles. The challenge of generating realistic performance data in over-actuated vehicles transitioning from hover to cruise flight is also addressed through an approach based on objective function optimization. A table-based performance model format adapted to UAM configurations is described, as well as parametric models intended to accompany the performance table to allow detailed modeling of power and fuel consumption during accelerated flight, turning flight, or flight at an arbitrary climb or descent rate. A discussion of future work is also provided, including the need for refinement of UAM performance modeling methods and formats, especially in conjunction with improvements to aerodynamic modeling of vehicles with complex designs where strong interaction effects may dominate important regions of the flight envelope.

Performance Modeling↗

NASA NTRS2023

Performance Modeling of Urban Air Mobility Vehicles to Support Air Traffic Management Research

The recent emergence of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) vehicles has resulted in a need for flight performance models that enable comprehensive simulation-based research on air traffic management topics such as route structure, scheduling, and separation standards. Successful performance modeling methods exist for a wide range of traditional aircraft designs. However, comparable modeling methods appropriate for UAM vehicles that combine fixed-wing and rotorcraft performance have not yet been established. One challenge to progress has been the lack of available data capturing the performance characteristics and unique flight profiles of these aircraft. This paper describes methods used to generate the required performance data and the development of performance models for UAM vehicles. Included is a review of the energy and power equations often used in developing performance models for traditional aircraft as well as a discussion of their applicability to UAM vehicles. The challenge of generating realistic performance data in over-actuated vehicles transitioning from hover to cruise flight is also addressed through an approach based on objective function optimization. A table-based performance model format adapted to UAM configurations is described, as well as parametric models intended to accompany the performance table to allow detailed modeling of power and fuel consumption during accelerated flight, turning flight, or flight at an arbitrary climb or descent rate. A discussion of future work is also provided, including the need for refinement of UAM performance modeling methods and formats, especially in conjunction with improvements to aerodynamic modeling of vehicles with complex designs where strong interaction effects may dominate important regions of the flight envelope.

Performance Modeling↗

NASA NTRS2019

Modeling Uncertainty in Time and Fuel Benefit Estimation for TASAR Operational Evaluation

The Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Requests concept aims to reduce weather-induced delays, improve route efficiency, and efficiently share route modification options by combining onboard avionics data, Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast data, and broadband internet data to generate optimal, traffic-compatible trajectory changes based on real-time traffic and weather data. Time and fuel benefits due to use of the Traffic Aware Planner (TAP) software can be estimated by taking the difference in predicted flight time and fuel usage before and after a TAP-inspired trajectory change is completed. Although TAP’s optimization algorithm predicts flight and fuel usage based on the current flight route and weather data, it does not account for possible air traffic controller-initiated trajectory changes, reroutes due to sudden weather changes, or other pilot/controller actions that may occur during flight. This paper introduces an approach for quantifying the uncertainty in estimated time and fuel benefits.

Burris, Joseph↗

NASA NTRS2017

Predicting the Operational Acceptability of Route Advisories

NASA envisions a future Air Traffic Management system that allows safe, efficient growth in global operations, enabled by increasing levels of automation and autonomy. In a safety-critical system, the introduction of increasing automation and autonomy has to be done in stages, making human-system integrated concepts critical in the foreseeable future. One example where this is relevant is for tools that generate more efficient flight routings or reroute advisories. If these routes are not operationally acceptable, they will be rejected by human operators, and the associated benefits will not be realized. Operational acceptance is therefore required to enable the increased efficiency and reduced workload benefits associated with these tools. In this paper, the authors develop a predictor of operational acceptability for reroute advisories. Such a capability has applications in tools that identify more efficient routings around weather and congestion and that better meet airline preferences. The capability is based on applying data mining techniques to flight plan amendment data reported by the Federal Aviation Administration and data on requested reroutes collected from a field trial of the NASA developed Dynamic Weather Routes tool, which advised efficient route changes to American Airlines dispatchers in 2014. 10-Fold cross validation was used for feature, model and parameter selection, while nested cross validation was used to validate the model. The model performed well in predicting controller acceptance or rejection of a route change as indicated by chosen performance metrics. Features identified as relevant to controller acceptance included the historical usage of the advised route, the location of the maneuver start point relative to the boundaries of the airspace sector containing the maneuver start (the maneuver start sector), the reroute deviation from the original flight plan, and the demand level in the maneuver start sector. A random forest with forty trees was the best performing of the five models evaluated in this paper.

route advisories↗

NASA NTRS2017

Predicting the Operational Acceptability of Route Advisories

NASA envisions a future Air Traffic Management system that allows safe, efficient growth in global operations, enabled by increasing levels of automation and autonomy. In a safety-critical system, the introduction of increasing automation and autonomy has to be done in stages, making human-system integrated concepts critical in the foreseeable future. One example where this is relevant is for tools that generate more efficient flight routings or reroute advisories. If these routes are not operationally acceptable, they will be rejected by human operators, and the associated benefits will not be realized. Operational acceptance is therefore required to enable the increased efficiency and reduced workload benefits associated with these tools. In this paper, the authors develop a predictor of operational acceptability for reroute advisories. Such a capability has applications in tools that identify more efficient routings around weather and congestion and that better meet airline preferences. The capability is based on applying data mining techniques to flight plan amendment data reported by the Federal Aviation Administration and data on requested reroutes collected from a field trial of the NASA developed Dynamic Weather Routes tool, which advised efficient route changes to American Airlines dispatchers in 2014. 10-Fold cross validation was used for feature, model and parameter selection, while nested cross validation was used to validate the model. The model performed well in predicting controller acceptance or rejection of a route change as indicated by chosen performance metrics. Features identified as relevant to controller acceptance included the historical usage of the advised route, the location of the maneuver start point relative to the boundaries of the airspace sector containing the maneuver start (the maneuver start sector), the reroute deviation from the original flight plan, and the demand level in the maneuver start sector. A random forest with forty trees was the best performing of the five models evaluated in this paper.

operational acceptability↗

NASA NTRS2014

Case Study: Influences of Uncertainties and Traffic Scenario Difficulties in a Human-in-the-Loop Simulation

This paper presents a case study of how factors such as wind prediction errors and metering delays can influence controller performance and workload in Human-In-The-Loop simulations. Retired air traffic controllers worked two arrival sectors adjacent to the terminal area. The main tasks were to provide safe air traffic operations and deliver the aircraft to the metering fix within +/- 25 seconds of the scheduled arrival time with the help of provided decision support tools. Analyses explore the potential impact of metering delays and system uncertainties on controller workload and performance. The results suggest that trajectory prediction uncertainties impact safety performance, while metering fix accuracy and workload appear subject to the scenario difficulty.

air traffic control↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Cognitive Game Theoretic Analysis of Conflict Alerts in Air Traffic Control

The current research was motivated by the recommendation made by a joint Government/Industry committee to introduce a new traffic control system, referred to as the Free Flight. This system is designed to use recent new technology to facilitate efficient and safe air transportation. We addressed one of the major difficulties that arise in the design of this and similar multi-agent systems: the adaptive (and slippery) nature of human agents. To facilitate a safe and efficient design of this multi-agent system, designers have to rely on assessments of the expected behavior of the different agents under various scenarios. Whereas the behavior of the computerized agents is predictable, the behavior of the human agents (including air traffic controllers and pilots) is not. Experimental and empirical observations suggest that human agents are likely to adjust their behavior to the design of the system. To see the difficulty that the adaptive nature of human agents creates assume that a good approximation of the way operators currently behave is available. Given this information an optimal design can be performed. The problem arises as the human operator will learn to adjust their behavior to the new system. Following this adjustment process the assumptions made by the designer concerning the operators behavior will no longer be accurate and the system might reach a suboptimal state. In extreme situations these potential suboptimal states might involve unnecessary risk. That is, the fact that operators learn in an adaptive fashion does not imply that the system will become safer as they gain experience. At least in the context of Safety dilemmas, experience can lead to a pareto deficient risk taking behavior.

Erev, Ido↗