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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Internal variability and forcing influence model–satellite differences in the rate of tropical tropospheric warming

Climate-model simulations exhibit approximately two times more tropical tropospheric warming than satellite observations since 1979. The causes of this difference are not fully understood and are poorly quantified. Here, we apply machine learning to relate the patterns of surface-temperature change to the forced and unforced components of tropical tropospheric warming. This approach allows us to disentangle the forced and unforced change in the model-simulated temperature of the midtroposphere (TMT). In applying the climate-model-trained machine-learning framework to observations, we estimate that external forcing has produced a tropical TMT trend of 0.25 ± 0.08 K⋅decade −1 between 1979 and 2014, but internal variability has offset this warming by 0.07 ± 0.07 K⋅decade −1 . Using the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) large ensemble, we also find that a discontinuity in the variability of prescribed biomass-burning aerosol emissions artificially enhances simulated tropical TMT change by 0.04 K⋅decade −1 . The magnitude of this aerosol-forcing bias will vary across climate models, but since the latest generation of climate models all use the same emissions dataset, the bias may systematically enhance climate-model trends over the satellite era. Our results indicate that internal variability and forcing uncertainties largely explain differences in satellite-versus-model warming and are important considerations when evaluating climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Commercial Building Fenestration Market Study

This study characterizes and assesses the U.S. commercial fenestration market. It analyzes a groundbreaking amount of data that will ultimately support an estimate of national savings potential of energy efficient fenestration products in commercial applications to demonstrate the benefits of efficient façade and fenestration systems. This study provides data and analysis on: commercial fenestration market and fenestration selection process, installed commercial fenestration stock across the U.S. and fenestration sales estimates, and current commercial building fenestration codes and market trends of installation to or above code.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dead Fuel Moisture Content Reanalysis Dataset for California (2000–2020)

This study presents a novel reanalysis dataset of dead fuel moisture content (DFMC) across California from 2000 to 2020 at a 2 km resolution. Utilizing a data assimilation system that integrates a simplified time-lag fuel moisture model with 10-h fuel moisture observations from remote automated weather stations (RAWS) allowed predictions of 10-h fuel moisture content by our method with a mean absolute error of 0.03 g/g compared to the widely used Nelson model, with a mean absolute error prediction of 0.05 g/g. For context, the values of DFMC in California are commonly between 0.05 g/g and 0.30 g/g. The presented product provides gridded hourly moisture estimates for 1-h, 10-h, 100-h, and 1000-h fuels, essential for analyzing historical fire activity and understanding climatological trends. The methodology presented here demonstrates significant advancements in the accuracy and robustness of fuel moisture estimates, which are critical for fire forecasting and management.

Farguell, Angel (ORCID:000000032395220X)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of Global Aboveground Biomass Estimates From Satellite Observations and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

The global forest carbon stocks represent the amount of carbon stored in woody vegetation and are important for quantifying the ability of the global forests to sequester atmospheric CO 2 and to provide ecosystem services (e.g., timber) under climate change. The forest ecosystem carbon pool estimates are highly variable and poorly quantified in areas lacking forest inventory estimates. Here, we compare and analyze aboveground biomass (AGB) estimates from five satellite-based global data sets and nine dynamic global vegetation models (DVGMs). We find that across the data sets, mean AGB exhibits the largest variability around the tropical area. In addition, AGB shows a similar latitudinal trend but large variability among the data sets. Satellite-based AGB estimates are lower than those simulated by DVGMs. The divergence among the satellite-based AGB estimates can be driven by the methodology, input satellite products, and the forested areas used to estimate AGB. The modeled NPP, autotrophic respiration, and carbon allocation mostly drive the variability of AGB simulated by DGVMs. The future availability of a high-quality global forest area map is anticipated to improve AGB estimate accuracy and to reduce the discrepancies among different satellite- and model-based AGB estimates. Furthermore, we suggest the carbon-modeling community reexamine the methodology used to estimate AGB and forested areas for a more robust global forest carbon stock estimation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A global urban heat island intensity dataset: Generation, comparison, and analysis

The urban heat island (UHI) effect, a phenomenon of local warming over urban areas, is the most well-known impact of urbanization on climate. Globally consistent estimates of the UHI intensity (UHII) are crucial for examining this phenomenon across time and space. However, publicly available UHII datasets are limited and have several constraints: (1) they are for clear-sky surface UHII, not all-sky surface UHII and canopy (air temperature) UHII; (2) the estimation methods often neglect anthropogenic disturbance, introducing uncertainties in the estimated UHII. To address these issues, this study proposes a new dynamic equal-area (DEA) method that can minimize the influence of various confounding factors on UHII estimates through a dynamic cyclic process. Utilizing the DEA method and leveraging various gridded temperature data, we develop a global-scale (>10,000 cities), long-term (over 20 years by month), and multi-faceted (clear-sky surface, all-sky surface, and canopy) UHII dataset. Further, based on these estimates, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the UHII and its trends in global cities. The UHII is found to be greater than zero in >80% of cities, with global annual average magnitudes around 1.0 °C (day) and 0.8 °C (night) for surface UHII, and close to 0.5 °C for canopy UHII. Furthermore, an interannual upward trend in UHII is observed in >60% of cities, with global annual average trends exceeding 0.1 °C/decade (day) and over 0.06 °C/decade (night) for surface UHII, and slightly surpassing 0.03 °C/decade for canopy UHII. Notably, there exists a positive correlation between the magnitude and trend of UHII, suggesting that cities with stronger UHII tend to experience faster growth in UHII. Additionally, discrepancies in UHII are found between different temperature data, stemming not only from distinctions in data types (surface or air temperature) but also from differences in data acquisition times (Terra or Aqua), weather conditions (clear-sky or all-sky), and processing methodologies (with or without gap filling). Overall, our proposed method, dataset, and analysis results have the potential to provide valuable insights for future urban climate studies. The UHII dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.24821538.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global Carbon Budget 2022

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.6 GtC yr−1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

An in-situ view cell system for investigating swelling behavior of elastomers upon high-pressure hydrogen exposure

The transition to hydrogen as a clean and efficient energy carrier is impeded by challenges in the compatibility of hydrogen with materials used within hydrogen infrastructure. Elastomers, crucial in sealing components, often exhibit premature failures in high-pressure hydrogen environments due to excessive swelling. This study employs an innovative in-situ view cell system to assess the swelling behavior of hydrogenated nitrile butadiene rubber (HNBR) under various hydrogen conditions. The system, designed to withstand pressures up to 96.5 MPa, incorporates Digital Image Correlation (DIC) for strain measurements and volume estimation. Results reveal non-linear volume increases during depressurization, challenging conventional assumptions. Furthermore, investigations into peak hydrogen pressures and pressure-holding scenarios during decompression highlight complex swelling trends. The introduction of a novel computer vision (CV) method enhances precision in volume estimation, overcoming DIC limitations. The study provides insights into mitigating elastomer swelling, crucial for developing robust materials to support future hydrogen-driven energy systems.

Elastomer↗
DOE OSTI2023

Global and northern-high-latitude net ecosystem production in the 21st century from CMIP6 experiments

Climate warming is accelerating the changes in the global terrestrial ecosystems and particularly those in the northern high latitudes (NHLs; poleward of 50° N) and rendering the land–atmosphere carbon exchange highly uncertain. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) employs the most updated climate models to estimate terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics driven by a new set of socioeconomic and climate change pathways. By analyzing the future (2015–2100) carbon fluxes estimated by 10 CMIP6 models, we quantitatively evaluated the projected magnitudes, trends, and uncertainties in the global and NHL carbon fluxes under four scenarios plus the role of NHLs in the global terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics. Overall, the models suggest that the global and NHL terrestrial ecosystems will be consistent carbon sinks in the future, and the magnitude of the carbon sinks is projected to be larger under scenarios with higher radiative forcing. By the end of this century, the models on average estimate the NHL net ecosystem productivity (NEP) as 0.54 ± 0.77, 1.01 ± 0.98, 0.97 ± 1.62, and 1.05 ± 1.83 Pg C yr –1 under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively. The uncertainties are not substantially reduced compared with earlier results, e.g., the Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP). Although NHLs contribute a small fraction of the global carbon sink (~13 %), the relative uncertainties in NHL NEP are much larger than the global level. Our results provide insights into future carbon flux evolutions under future scenarios and highlight the urgent need to constrain the large uncertainties associated with model projections for making better climate mitigation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effective climate sensitivity distributions from a 1D model of global ocean and land temperature trends, 1970–2021

Abstract Current theoretically based Earth system models (ESMs) produce Effective Climate Sensitivities (EffCS) that range over a factor of three, with 80% of those models producing stronger global warming trends for 1970–2021 than do observations. To make a more observationally based estimate of EffCS, a 1D time-dependent forcing-feedback model of temperature departures from energy equilibrium is used to match measured ranges of global-average surface and sub-surface land and ocean temperature trends during 1970–2021. In response to two different radiative forcing scenarios, a full range of three model free parameters are evaluated to produce fits to a range of observed surface temperature trends (± 2σ) from four different land datasets and three ocean datasets, as well as deep-ocean temperature trends and borehole-based trend retrievals over land. Land-derived EffCS are larger than over the ocean, and EffCS is lower using the newer Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245, 1.86 °C global EffCS, ± 34% range 1.48–2.15 °C) than the older Representative Concentration Pathway forcing (RCP6, 2.49 °C global average EffCS, ± 34% range 2.04–2.87 °C). The strongest dependence of the EffCS results is on the assumed radiative forcing dataset, underscoring the role of radiative forcing uncertainty in determining the sensitivity of the climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations from observations alone. The results are consistent with previous observation-based studies that concluded EffCS during the observational period is on the low end of the range produced by current ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Determining circuit model parameters from operation data for PV system degradation analysis: $\mathrm{PVPRO}$

Physics-based circuit parameters like series and shunt resistance are essential to provide insights into the degradation status of photovoltaic (PV) arrays. However, calculating these parameters typically requires a full current-voltage characteristic (I-V curve), the acquisition of which involves specific measurement devices and costly methods. Thus, I-V curves of the PV system level are often not available. Here this paper proposes a methodology (PVPRO) to estimate these I-V curve parameters using only operation (string-level DC voltage and current) and weather data (irradiance and temperature). PVPRO first performs multi-stage data pre-processing to remove noisy data. Next, the time-series DC data are used to fit an equivalent circuit single-diode model (SDM) to estimate the circuit parameters by minimizing the differences between the measured and estimated values. In this way, the time evolutions of the SDM parameters are obtained. We evaluate PVPRO on synthetic datasets and find an excellent estimation of both SDM and the key I-V parameters (e.g., open-circuit voltage, short-circuit current, maximum power, etc.) with an average relative error of 0.55%. The performance, especially the extracted degradation rate of parameters, is robust to various measurement noises and the presence of faults. In addition, PVPRO is applied to a 271 kW PV field system. The relative error between the real and estimated operation voltage and current is less than 1%, suggesting that degradation trends are well captured. PVPRO represents a promising open-source tool to extract the time-series degradation trends of key PV parameters from routine operation data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Microphase Separation in Semi-Fluorinated Diblock Copolymers: A Combined Experimental and Modeling Investigation

We report the combined experimental and theoretical study of the bulk self-assembly behavior of polystyrene-blockpoly( 2,3,4,5,6-pentafluorostyrene) diblock copolymers. These block copolymers were designed to create highly antagonistic blocks (with a high Flory−Huggins interaction parameter, χ) with minimum disruption to the molecular construct (i.e., only replacing five hydrogen atoms with five fluorine atoms). A large library of diblock copolymers (41 samples) was synthesized by reversible addition− fragmentation chain transfer (RAFT) polymerization to map out a major portion of the phase space. All block copolymers exhibited narrow molecular weight distributions with dispersity (D) values between 1.07 and 1.32, and subsequent thermal annealing revealed phase separation into well-defined nanoscale morphologies depending on their molecular composition, as determined from small-angle X-ray scattering and transmission electron microscopy analyses, with an experimental phase diagram being constructed. The χ value at 25 °C for this block copolymer was estimated to be 0.2 using strong segregation theory, based on trends in phase-separated domain spacing and interfacial width. When applying theoretical approaches, the majority of the domain spacing data trends were captured by a coil−coil diblock copolymer model; however, a better fit to the data for samples with shorter fluorinated blocks was obtained with a rod−coil model, indicating that the chains in these fluorinated blocks likely have a higher inherent stiffness and were thus rod-like. This observation demonstrates that, due to the very high value of χ, a transition from coil−coil to rod−coil behavior can be obtained purely by reducing the length of the stiffer of the two blocks and without varying temperature or the chemical composition of the polymers. Here, this work showcases the presence of strong microphase separation within AB diblock copolymers despite the relatively similar chemical composition of the constituent “A” and “B” units, with a clear transition from rod−coil to coil−coil segregation behavior.

RAFT polymerization↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dissipation and Bathymetric Sensitivities in an Unstructured Mesh Global Tidal Model

Abstract The mechanisms and geographic distribution of global tidal dissipation in barotropic tidal models are examined using a high resolution unstructured mesh finite element model. Mesh resolution varies between 2 and 25 km and is especially focused on inner shelves and steep bathymetric gradients. Tidal response sensitivities to bathymetric changes are examined to put into context response sensitivities to frictional processes. We confirm that the Ronne Ice Shelf dramatically affects Atlantic tides but also find that bathymetry in the Hudson Bay system is a critical control. We follow a sequential frictional parameter optimization process and use TPXO9 data‐assimilated tidal elevations as a reference solution. From simulated velocities and depths, dissipation within the global model is estimated and allows us to pinpoint dissipation at high resolution. Boundary layer dissipation is extremely focused with 1.4% of the ocean accounting for 90% of the total. Internal tide friction is much more distributed with 16.7% of the ocean accounting for 90% of the total. Often highly regional dissipation can impact basin‐scale and even ocean wide tides. Optimized boundary layer friction parameters correlate very well with the physical characteristics of the locality with high friction factors associated with energetic tidal regions, deep ocean island chains, and ice covered areas. Global complex M 2 tide errors are 1.94 cm in deep waters. Total global boundary layer and internal tide dissipation are estimated, respectively, at 1.83 and 1.49 TW. This continues the trend in the literature toward attributing more dissipation to internal tides.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatial Trends and Drivers of Bedload and Suspended Sediment Fluxes in Global Rivers

Abstract Bedload is notoriously challenging to measure and model; its dynamics, therefore, remains largely unknown in most fluvial systems worldwide. We present results from a global scale bedload flux model as part of the WBMsed modeling framework that well predict the distribution of water discharge, suspended sediment and bedload. The sensitivity of bedload predictions to river slope, particle size, discharge, river width, and suspended sediment were analyzed, showing the model to be most responsive to spatial dynamics in river discharge and slope. The relationship between bedload and total sediment flux is analyzed globally, and for representative longitudinal river profiles (Amazon, Mississippi, and Lena Rivers). The results show that while the proportion of bedload decreases from headwaters to the coasts, there is considerable variability between basins and along river corridors. The topographic and hydrological longitudinal profiles of rivers are shown to be the key drivers of bedload trends, with fluctuations in slope controlling its more local dynamics. Estimates of water and sediment fluxes to global oceans from 2,067 largest river outlets (draining 67% of the global continental area) are provided. Estimated water discharge at 30,579 km 3 /y corresponds well to past estimates; however, sediment flux is higher. Total global particulate load of 17.8 Gt/y is delivered to global oceans, 14.8 Gt/y as washload, 1.1 Gt/y as bedload, and 2.6 Gt/y as suspended bed material. The largest 25 rivers are predicted to transport more than half of the total sediment flux to global oceans.

Cohen, Sagy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Raman spectroscopic study of anhydrous and hydrous REE phosphates, oxides, and hydroxides

Rare earth elements (REE) include the lanthanides (La–Lu), Y, and Sc which are critical elements for the green energy transition. The REE show a decrease in ionic radii with increased atomic numbers, which results in a so-called lanthanide contraction systematically affecting crystal structures and mineral properties. Here we present a compilation of reference Raman spectra of ten REE sesquioxides (A-, B- and C-type), five REE hydroxides, eight xenotime-structured REE phosphate endmembers and two solid solutions, seven monazite-structured REE phosphate endmembers and two solid solutions and seven rhabdophane endmembers with up to five Ce 1–x LREE x rhabdophane solid solutions (LREE = La–Gd). Raman mode assignment is based on a detailed literature review summarizing existing analytical work and theoretical calculations and systematic trends observed in this study by analyzing different REE-bearing solids. Here, the wavenumbers of the main REE-O Raman band systematically increase with decreasing ionic radii forming discrete linear trends within isostructural mineral groups, that can be used to estimate the REE-O mode in other solids with known REE-O coordination numbers. Photoluminescence using 266 nm, 532 nm and 633 nm excitation laser wavelengths for REE-bearing oxides, hydroxides, anhydrous and hydrous phosphates is also presented providing a new framework for identifying REE-phases in phosphate-bearing natural mineral deposits.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Emergency Diesel Generators 1998–2018

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of emergency diesel generators (EDGs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. This report evaluates component performance over time using (1) Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Consolidated Events Database (ICES) data from 1998 through 2018 and (2) maintenance unavailability (UA) performance data from Mitigating Systems Performance Index (MSPI) Basis Document data from 2002 through 2018. The objective is to show estimates of current failure probabilities and rates related to EDGs, trend these data on an annual basis, determine if the current data are consistent with the probability distributions currently recommended for use in NRC probabilistic risk assessments, show how the reliability data differ for different EDG manufacturers and for EDGs with different ratings; and summarize the subcomponents, causes, detection methods, and recovery associated with each EDG failure mode. Engineering analyses were performed with respect to time period and failure mode without regard to the actual number of EDGs at each plant. The factors analyzed are: sub-component, failure cause, detection method, recovery, manufacturer, and EDG rating. A statistically significant increasing trend was identified in the frequency of FTLR demands for emergency power system (EPS) and high pressure core spray (HPCS) EDGs and a statistically significant decreasing trend was identified in the frequency of run > 1H hours for EPS and HPCS EDGs.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Emergency Diesel Generators 1998-2020

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of emergency power system (EPS) and high-pressure core spray (HPCS) emergency diesel generators (EDGs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. This report evaluates component performance over time using (1) Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS) data from 1998 through 2020 and (2) maintenance unavailability performance data from Mitigating Systems Performance Index (MSPI) Basis Document data from 2002 through 2020. The objective is to show estimates of current failure probabilities and rates related to EDGs, trend these data on an annual basis, determine if the current data are consistent with the probability distributions currently recommended for use in NRC probabilistic risk assessments, show how the reliability data differ for different EDG manufacturers and for EDGs with different ratings; and summarize the subcomponents, causes, detection methods, and recovery associated with each EDG failure mode. The EDG failure modes considered are fail to start (FTS), fail to load and run (FTLR), and fail to run after one hour of operation (FTR>1H). Engineering analyses were performed with respect to time period and failure mode without regard to the actual number of EDGs at each plant. The factors analyzed are: subcomponent, failure cause, detection method, recovery, manufacturer, and EDG rating. The following increasing trends were identified for EDGs for the most recent 10-year period: • HPCS EDG FTS failure probability • EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of start demands (demands per reactor year) • EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of FTLR demands. The following decreasing trends were identified for EDGs for the most recent 10-year period: • EPS EDG FTS failure probability • EPS EDG FTLR failure probability • EPS EDG unavailability • EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of FTLR events (failures per reactor year).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Emergency Diesel Generators 1998–2022

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of the emergency power system (EPS) and high-pressure core spray (HPCS) emergency diesel generators (EDGs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. This report evaluates component performance over time using (1) Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS) data from 1998 through 2022 and (2) maintenance unavailability performance data from Mitigating Systems Performance Index (MSPI) Basis Document data from 2002 through 2022. The objective is to show estimates of current failure probabilities and rates related to EDGs, trend these data on an annual basis, determine if the current data are consistent with the probability distributions currently recommended for use in Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) probabilistic risk assessments, show how the reliability data differ for different EDG manufacturers and for EDGs with different ratings; and summarize the subcomponents, causes, detection methods, and recovery associated with each EDG failure mode. The EDG failure modes considered are fail to start (FTS), fail to load and run (FTLR), and fail to run after one hour of operation (FTR>1H). Engineering analyses were performed with respect to time-period and failure mode without regard to the actual number of EDGs at each plant. The factors analyzed include subcomponent, failure cause, detection method, recovery, manufacturer, and EDG rating. The following increasing trends were identified for EDGs for the most recent 10-year period: (1) HPCS EDG FTS failure probability, (2) EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of start demands (demands per reactor year), and (3) EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of FTLR demands. The following decreasing trends were identified for EDGs for the most recent 10-year period: (1) EPS EDG FTS failure probability, (2) EPS EDG FTLR failure probability, (3) EPS EDG unavailability, and (4) EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of FTLR events (failures per reactor year).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bridging the Gap on Data, Metrics, and Analyses for Grid Resilience to Weather Events: Information that utilities can provide regulators, state energy offices, and other stakeholders

A growing number of states require regulated utilities to file resilience plans to improve the electric grid’s ability to anticipate, withstand, adapt to and recover from increasingly severe weather events. This report aims to help state regulators identify and request data, metrics, and analyses from utilities and use it in decisions on utility resilience plans and investments. The report reviews state requirements and utility plans focused on overall grid resilience, climate change resilience and vulnerabilities, infrastructure modernization, storm protection, and wildfire mitigation. It details types of data, metrics, and analyses across five categories--and provides examples of each from the utility plans. The first category is vulnerability assessments, or evaluations of the susceptibility of systems, communities, or assets to potential harm from identified hazards. The second is data on hazards and the exposure of utility assets and customers to these hazards. The third is attribute metrics, or system characteristics that contribute to or describe the resilience of a system. The fourth is performance metrics, which are impacts of resilience investments on system performance--typically a reduction of negative impacts from hazard events. Finally, evaluation and prioritization are analyses that utilities conduct to estimate impacts from resilience measures (evaluation) and prioritize measures based on costs and estimated impacts (prioritization). The report concludes with examples of key trends and emerging best practices for states and utilities, and identifies areas for further research.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗