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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying structural errors in cloud condensation nuclei activity from reduced representation of aerosol size distributions

Aerosol effects on clouds and radiation are the dominant contribution to uncertainty in radiative forcing relative to the pre-industrial atmosphere. While previous studies have assessed the impact of parametric uncertainty on modeled forcing, structural errors from the numerical representation of particle distributions have not been well quantified. Here we present a framework for quantifying error in aerosol size distributions and cloud condensation nuclei activity, which we apply to the widely used 4-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4). Box model predictions from the MAM4 are evaluated against the Particle Monte Carlo Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (PartMC-MOSAIC), a benchmark model that tracks the evolution of individual particles. We show that size distributions simulated by MAM4 diverge from those simulated by PartMC-MOSAIC after only a few hours of aging by condensation and coagulation in polluted conditions, which leads to large errors in modeled cloud condensation nuclei concentrations. We find that differences between MAM4 and PartMC-MOSAIC are largest under polluted conditions, where the size distribution evolves rapidly though aging by condensation of semi-volatile substances and coagulation among particles. These findings suggest that structural error in modeled aerosol properties contributes to the large inter-model variability in aerosol radiative forcing.

Fierce, Laura M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Assessment of Global Positioning System Velocity Uncertainty in California

We analyze data from 580 continuous global positioning system (GPS) stations in California to quantify differences in published velocity estimates from five analysis centers. Horizontal and vertical rates for individual stations can differ up to 5 mm/yr, with systematic differences in some areas comparable to deformation rates. Published velocity uncertainties vary between analysis centers and are systematically underreported in the horizontal relative to empirical uncertainties calculated from the scatter of analysis center velocities. In the vertical, published velocity uncertainties are both over and underreported and vary more widely between centers. An interpolated ensemble vertical velocity field shows high-subsidence regions in the Central Valley and Salton Trough have the largest empirical uncertainties, while station density has a modest impact on uncertainties. Applications that rely on subcentimeter GPS accuracy should consider the possibility that formal errors published with velocity rate estimates understate true velocity uncertainties in both the horizontal and vertical.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Expansion and Update of the R&D Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator (FD-CIC) for R&D GREET 2025

The R&D Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator (R&D FD-CIC) is a transparent and easy-touse tool to estimate feedstock-specific carbon intensity (CI) of biofuel feedstocks, and to examine potential CI variations of different farming practices to grow agricultural feedstocks for biofuel production. The objective of the tool is to assess potential effects of different farming practices with underlined factors to reduce uncertainties in such assessment and help R&D activities. The original work and early versions of R&D FD-CIC were supported by Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy (ARPA-E) of the Department of Energy, with recent support by the Bioenergy Technologies Office of the Department of Energy. The tool uses life cycle inventory (LCI) data of key farming inputs from the R&D Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (R&D GREET) model. The system boundary of R&D FD-CIC covers the cradle-to-farm-gate activities, including upstream emissions related to farming input manufacturing and feedstock production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Notable Contributions of Aerosols to the Predictability of Hail Precipitation

There is an increasing concern of the uncertainty produced by aerosols in forecasting precipitation including hail precipitation. This study provides an assessment of the uncertainties in hail and total precipitation by varying initial cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentration (CCNC) and meteorological conditions based on 1200 cloud-resolving simulations of an idealized hailstorm. Although the meteorological perturbations produce large uncertainties in hail precipitation (including rate and maximum hail size) as well as total precipitation, varying CCNC by an order of magnitude can cause even larger uncertainties, especially pairing with the thermodynamics perturbation (i.e., potential temperature and water vapor). Changing CCNC modifies the predictability of hail precipitation, with a higher predictability in moderate polluted environments compared with the very clean and polluted environments. Increasing CCNC consistently leads a non-monotonic response of ensemble mean with an optimal CCNC for hail precipitation but a monotonic decreasing response of total precipitation with the various meteorological perturbations, meaning the initial meteorological perturbations does not qualitatively change the aerosol effects. Investigation with 10-fold reduced initial perturbation further supports the large CCN effects are not dependent of metrological perturbations. The findings suggest the importance of considering CCN effects in severe weather simulations and forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Novel Framework to Project the Permafrost Fate With Explicit Quantification of Soil Property and Future Climate Uncertainties

This study develops a novel general framework to project the permafrost fate with rigorous uncertainty quantification to assess dominant sources. Borehole temperature records from three sites in the Russian western Arctic are used to constrain the uncertainty of a high‐fidelity freeze‐thaw model. Projections from 9 Global Climate Models (GCM) are stochastically downscaled to generate future trajectories of surface ground heat flux. Under the two emission scenarios SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, the projected average thawing depths by 2100 vary from 0.4 to 14.4 m or 2.1 to 17.7 m, and the increase in the top 10 m average temperature from 2015 to 2100 is 1.2–2.7°C or 1.9–3.0°C. The results show that the freeze‐thaw model uncertainty can sometimes dominate over that of GCM outputs, calling for site‐specific information to improve model accuracy. The framework is applicable for understanding permafrost degradation and related uncertainties at larger scales.

Bayesian downscaling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis for Quantitative Risk Assessments of Hydrogen Infrastructure

Typical QRAs provide deterministic estimates and understanding of risks posed but are constructed using significant assumptions and uncertainties due to limited data availability and historical momentum of using nominal estimates. This report presents a hydrogen QRA analysis using HyRAM+ that incorporates uncertainty with Latin hypercube sampling and sensitivity analysis using linear regression.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

The impact of agricultural trade approaches on global economic modeling

Future socioeconomic and climate scenarios have been explored using integrated assessment models (IAMs) to understand interactions between human development and global environmental change in the long run. However, differences in trade modeling approaches are an important source of uncertainty in the assessments, particularly for regional projections. Here, we explore the critical role of trade modeling in assessing the potential future of global agroeconomics and terrestrial carbon emissions with a well-established IAM, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We update the crop trade modeling framework in GCAM from a Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) structure with integrated world markets (IWM) to a newly developed logit-based Armington approach with segmented regional markets (SRM). The updates make it possible to study the sensitivity of model projections of future agroeconomics and terrestrial carbon emissions to assumptions of the state and magnitude of global market integration. Our results demonstrate that assuming full global market integration, represented by homogeneous product modeling, neglecting economic geography, and excluding margins and tariffs, could lead to lower cropland use (i.e., by 115 million hectares globally) and terrestrial carbon fluxes (i.e., by 25%) by the end of the century. However, the results are highly heterogeneous across regions with more pronounced regional trade responses driven by global market integration. Our study highlights the critical role of trade modeling around product differentiation, economic geography, and regional trade parameterization in global economic or integrated assessment modeling. The results also imply that further reconciliations in trade model approaches could improve the convergence of regional results among models in model intercomparison studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Probabilistic Deep Learning Methods for Uncertainty Quantification of Precipitation Bias Correction

Climate models often exhibit biases in their precipitation predictions, particularly underestimating high-intensity events and overestimating low precipitation. Deep learning approaches offer promising solutions, but their epistemic uncertainty associated with a deep learning–based bias correction method has not previously been quantified for reliable downstream climate impact studies. While methods for capturing the epistemic uncertainty in deep learning frameworks exist, there is currently no consensus on the best method. In this work, we compare three uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods—Deep Ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), and Flipout—by assessing the reliability of their uncertainty estimates using standard measures such as sharpness and calibration. These UQ methods are applied to an existing deep learning precipitation bias correction model known as UFNet: a coupled U-Net and fully connected neural network. The methods utilized to assess the models’ uncertainties are 1) calibration, which ensures that the expected probabilities of the model align with reality and 2) sharpness, which is a measure of the precision of the model’s probabilistic predictions. Of the three UQ methods evaluated, the DEns and MCD methods demonstrated the best-calibrated performance (expected calibration error of 0.36 and 0.35, respectively), compared to Flipout (0.58). In contrast, Flipout had the sharpest predictions and the highest metric performance in bias correcting precipitation—especially for higher-order moments such as kurtosis with a spatial correlation of 72% compared to 32% and 55% spatial correlation for DEns and MCD, respectively. Of the three UQ methods, MCD was found to be the most suitable method for UQ purposes based on its calibration, sharpness, and computational requirements.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2021

A D-term Modeling Code (DMC) for Simultaneous Calibration and Full-Stokes Imaging of Very Long Baseline Interferometric Data

In this paper we present DMC, a model and associated tool for polarimetric imaging of very long baseline interferometry data sets that simultaneously reconstructs the full-Stokes emission structure along with the station-based gain and leakage calibration terms. DMC formulates the imaging problem in terms of posterior exploration, which is achieved using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling. The resulting posterior distribution provides a natural quantification of uncertainty in both the image structure and the data calibration. We run DMC on both synthetic and real data sets, the results of which demonstrate its ability to accurately recover both the image structure and calibration quantities, as well as to assess their corresponding uncertainties. The framework underpinning DMC is flexible, and its specific implementation is under continued development.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Baseline Performance Reference for Irradiance in PV System Applications

This report proposes the definition of a new baseline performance reference (BPR). The definition goes beyond existing standards pertaining to photovoltaic (PV) reference cells and devices to define the response under all possible operating conditions in the field. Field evaluations using BPR devices will be more sensitive to performance anomalies than pyranometers because they track PV system power output more closely. At the same time, they will be able to detect a broader range of performance anomalies than traditional matched reference devices, which might have matching defects. The BPR definition also opens the door to new practices in resource assessment and yield prediction. Solar resource data can be collected or modeled and validated directly as BPR irradiance, and PV system simulations based on BPR irradiance need fewer assumptions and less processing to obtain the effective irradiance on modules. As a result, lower uncertainty in yield assessments can be expected.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

X-ray chemical imaging for assessing redox microsites within soils and sediments

Redox reactions underlie several biogeochemical processes and are typically spatiotemporally heterogeneous in soils and sediments. However, redox heterogeneity has yet to be incorporated into mainstream conceptualizations and modeling of soil biogeochemistry. Anoxic microsites, a defining feature of soil redox heterogeneity, are non-majority oxygen depleted zones in otherwise oxic environments. Neglecting to account for anoxic microsites can generate major uncertainties in quantitative assessments of greenhouse gas emissions, C sequestration, as well as nutrient and contaminant cycling at the ecosystem to global scales. However, only a few studies have observed/characterized anoxic microsites in undisturbed soils, primarily, because soil is opaque and microsites require µm-cm scale resolution over cm-m scales. Consequently, our current understanding of microsite characteristics does not support model parameterization. To resolve this knowledge gap, we demonstrate through this proof-of-concept study that X-ray fluorescence (XRF) 2D mapping can reliably detect, quantify, and provide basic redox characterization of anoxic microsites using solid phase “forensic” evidence. First, we tested and developed a systematic data processing approach to eliminate false positive redox microsites, i.e., artefacts, detected from synchrotron-based multiple-energy XRF 2D mapping of Fe (as a proxy of redox-sensitive elements) in Fe-“rich” sediment cores with artificially injected microsites. Then, spatial distribution of Fe II and Fe III species from full, natural soil core slices (over cm-m lengths/widths) were mapped at 1–100 µm resolution. These investigations revealed direct evidence of anoxic microsites in predominantly oxic soils such as from an oak savanna and toeslope soil of a mountainous watershed, where anaerobicity would typically not be expected. We also revealed preferential spatial distribution of redox microsites inside aggregates from oak savanna soils. We anticipate that this approach will advance our understanding of soil biogeochemistry and help resolve “anomalous” occurrences of reduced products in nominally oxic soils.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate Change Signal in Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Today and Near Future

This manuscript discusses the challenges in detecting and attributing recently observed trends in the Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) and the epistemic uncertainty we face in assessing future risk. We use synthetic storms downscaled from five CMIP5 models by the Columbia HAZard model (CHAZ), and directly simulated storms from high-resolution climate models. We examine three aspects of recent TC activity: the upward trend and multi-decadal oscillation of the annual frequency, the increase in storm wind intensity, and the decrease in forward speed. Some data sets suggest that these trends and oscillation are forced while others suggest that they can be explained by natural variability. Projections under warming climate scenarios also show a wide range of possibilities, especially for the annual frequencies, which increase or decrease depending on the choice of moisture variable used in the CHAZ model and on the choice of climate model. The uncertainties in the annual frequency lead to epistemic uncertainties in TC risk assessment. Here, we investigate the potential for reduction of these epistemic uncertainties through a statistical practice, namely likelihood analysis. We find that historical observations are more consistent with the simulations with increasing frequency than those with decreasing frequency, but we are not able to rule out the latter. We argue that the most rational way to treat epistemic uncertainty is to consider all outcomes contained in the results. In the context of risk assessment, since the results contain possible outcomes in which TC risk is increasing, this view implies that the risk is increasing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Incorporating climate change into risk-informed resilience planning

In response to the development of portfolio-wide Climate Action Plans by federal agencies, federal sites are working to incorporate the impacts of climate change into their resilience assessments. However, it can be challenging to incorporate climate change scenarios into resilience assessments given the uncertainty inherent in climate change modeling. Incorporating these factors into a resilience plan requires an understanding of what the different climate scenarios mean, as well as how to estimate potential impacts of climate change on hazard occurrence on a regional, or even local, scale under different scenarios. We discuss approaches to incorporating this data into risk-informed resilience assessment processes, such as those implemented in the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program’s (FEMP) Technical Resilience Navigator (TRN) and the Sustainability Performance Division’s (SPD) Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan (VARP) Risk Assessment Tool. We also describe the climate scenarios and the availability of hazard data for site resilience planning, based on modeling included in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the National Climate Assessment (NCA), and state-level reports. We present examples from the TRN risk assessment and the VARP Risk Assessment Tool to illustrate how sensitivity analysis can be used to incorporate climate change projections into the resilience planning process.

Rabinowitz, Hannah S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Discovering the nature of neutrinos: How nuclear theory will advance this grand endeavor. Final report

Why is there more matter than antimatter in the visible universe? Are neutrinos their own antiparticles? These are some of the most profound questions in science. The detection of a (0vββ) neutrinoless doublebeta decay and the measurement of its half-life is one of the most important experimental endeavors in science because it will answer these questions. Paramount to these measurements are accurate predictions with quantified uncertainties of the 0vββ-decay nuclear transitions, especially for the germanium-76 and xeon-136 nuclei, two candidate materials for building the next generation of DOE funded 0vββ-decay experiments. These predictions will guide the Office of Science’s down selection of experiments as well as aid in determining how much material is needed by these experiments. We studied a specific difficult to assess source of uncertainty that will impact coming microscopic predictions, uncertainty which arises from an incomplete yet systematically improvable model of interactions between nucleons and of nucleons with the other particles involved in decay process, referred to as the theory uncertainty. We employed a surrogate model of the germanium-76 nucleus, and its decay products, just detailed enough to adequately mimic the decaying nucleons need for a reasonable measure of this uncertainty and nothing more, avoiding the immense computational expense required in quantifying uncertainties of the full calculation. We found that microscopic calculations of this process can be expected to achieve relative theory uncertainties around 30%, including an unconstrained contribution that had the potential to spoil microscopic calculations. This results in a nearly order of magnitude on previously estimated uncertainties for this rare decay process.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗