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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Investigating drivers of microbial activity and respiration in a forested bog

Northern peatlands store nearly one-third of terrestrial carbon (C) stocks while covering only 3% of the global landmass; nevertheless, the drivers of C cycling in these often-waterlogged ecosystems are different from those that control C dynamics in upland forested soils. To explore how multiple abiotic and biotic characteristics of bogs interact to shape microbial activity in a northern, forested bog, we added a labile C tracer ( 13 C-labeled starch) to in situ peat mesocosms and correlated heterotrophic respiration with natural variation in several microbial predictor variables, such as enzyme activity and microbial biomass, as well as with a suite of abiotic variables and proximity to vascular plants aboveground. We found that peat moisture content was positively correlated with respiration and microbial activity, even when moisture levels exceeded total saturation, suggesting that access to organic matter substrates in drier environments may be limiting for microbial activity. Proximity to black spruce trees decreased total and labile heterotrophic respiration. This negative relationship may reflect the influence of tree evapotranspiration and peat shading effects; i.e., microbial activity may decline as peat dries and cools near trees. Here, we isolated the response of heterotrophic respiration to explore the variation in, and interactions among, multiple abiotic and biotic drivers that influence microbial activity. This approach allowed us to reveal the relative influence of individual drivers on C respiration in these globally important C sinks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Duration of O 2 Exposure Determines Dominance of Fe II vs CH 4 Production in Tropical Forest Soils

Temporal fluctuations in redox conditions influence the availability of Fe III and greenhouse gas emissions in humid upland soils. However, the impact of fluctuation duration on biogeochemical processes remains unclear. We hypothesized that rates of Fe III reduction and CH 4 production are sensitive to the duration of soil oxygenation. To test this, surface soil from the Luquillo Forest, Puerto Rico, was subjected to fluctuating redox conditions with an anoxic interval of 6 days followed by oxic intervals of either 8, 24, or 72 h. Shorter oxic intervals enhanced Fe reduction, while longer oxic intervals enhanced CH 4 emissions. As O 2 exposure decreased from 72 to 8 h, Fe reduction rates increased from 0.12 ± 0.02 to 0.26 ± 0.05 mmol kg –1 h –1 , whereas cumulative CH 4 decreased from 44.0 ± 4.7 to 12.7 ± 4.6 μmol kg –1 . 13 C-amino acid spikes were preferentially incorporated into the DNA of iron reducers (Anaeromyxobacter sp.) in the shorter oxic treatment (8 h vs 24 h), suggesting that Fe reducers are less inhibited by shorter periods of oxidation. Conversely, longer oxygen pulses appear to suppress Fe reducers more than methanogens, leading to increased CH 4 emissions. These findings highlight the role of the redox oscillation length in modulating biogeochemical processes and greenhouse gas emissions in soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enriched Molecular-Level View of Saline Wetland Soil Carbon by Sensitivity-Enhanced Solid-State NMR

Soil organic matter (SOM) plays a major role in mitigating greenhouse gas emission and regulating earth’s climate, carbon cycle, and biodiversity. Wetland soils account for one-third of all SOM; however, globally, coastal wetland soils are eroding faster due to increasing sea-level rise. Our understanding of carbon sequestration dynamics in wetlands lags behind that of upland soils. Here, we employ solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (ssNMR) to investigate the molecular-level structure of biopolymers in wetland soils spanning 11 centuries. High-resolution multidimensional spectra, enabled by dynamic nuclear polarization (DNP), demonstrate enduring preservation of molecular structures within herbaceous plant cores, notably condensing aromatic motifs and carbohydrates, even over a millennium, with the preserved cores constituting a decreasing minority among molecules from decomposition and repolymerization with depth and age. Such preserved cores occur alongside molecules from the decomposition of loosely packed parent biopolymers. These findings emphasize the relative vulnerability of coastal wetland SOM when exposed to oxygenated water due to geological and anthropogenic changes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Parsing Weather Variability and Wildfire Effects on the Post-Fire Changes in Daily Stream Flows: A Quantile-Based Statistical Approach and Its Application

Determining wildland fire impacts on streamflow can be problematic as the hydrology in burned watersheds is influenced by post-fire weather conditions. Here, this study presents a quantile-based analytical framework for assessing fire impacts on low and peak daily flow magnitudes, while accounting for post-fire weather influences. This framework entails (a) the bootstrap method to compute the relative change in the post-fire annual flow and weather statistics, (b) double mass analysis to detect if post-fire baseflow and quick-flow yield ratios are significantly altered, and (c) a quantile regression method to parse fire effects on flow at a specific quantile. We illustrate the applicability of this analytical framework using 44 western US streams with at least 5% of their watershed area burned. Results indicate that large, high-severity burns in upland watersheds can raise the streamflow magnitude at the 0. 05 th and 0. 95 th quantiles for at least the five post-fire years. Quantile regression results show that the median fire-related increase in flow for the five post-fire years can be up to 5,000% (Standard Error; S.E. < 2%) at the 0. 05 th E quantile and 161% (S.E. < 10%) at the 0. 95 th quantile. The fire-related increase in flow was often pronounced at the 0. 05 th quantile for streams in the Pacific Northwest and California regions. The difference in fire effects on flow (at both quantiles) across streams was related to post-fire weather, pyrology, physiography, and land cover. The proposed analytical framework can be useful for detecting and quantifying fire effects on the low and peak stream flows in burned watersheds without overlapping disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Convergent Hydraulic Redistribution and Groundwater Access Supported Facilitative Dependency Between Trees and Grasses in a Semi‐Arid Environment

Abstract Hydraulic redistribution is the transport of water from wet to dry soil layers, upward or downward, through plant roots. Often in savanna and woodland ecosystems, deep‐rooted trees, and shallow‐rooted grasses coexist. The degree to which these different species compete for or share soil‐water derived from precipitation or groundwater, as well as how these interactions are altered by hydraulic redistribution, is unknown. We use a multilayer canopy model and field observations to examine how the presence of deep, but tree‐root accessible, groundwater impacts seasonal patterns of hydraulic redistribution, and interaction between coexisting vegetation species in a semiarid riparian woodland (US‐CMW). Based on the simulation, trees absorb moisture at the water table (∼10 m depth) and release it in the shallow soil depth (0–3 m) during the dry pre‐monsoon season. We observed the occurrence of a new convergent hydraulic redistribution pattern during the monsoon season, where moisture is transported from both the near‐surface (0–0.5 m) and the water table to intermediate soil layers (1–5 m) through tree roots. We found that hydraulic redistribution demonstrates a growth facilitation effect at this site, supporting 49% of growing season tree transpiration and 14% of the grass transpiration. Compared to a similarly structured upland savanna without accessible groundwater, the riparian site shows an increased amount of hydraulically redistributed water and more facilitative water use between coexisting grasses and trees. These results shed light on the linkage between accessible groundwater and the role of hydraulic redistribution on the interaction between deep‐rooted and shallow‐rooted vegetation.

Lee, E.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mineral Protection and Resource Limitations Combine to Explain Profile-Scale Soil Carbon Persistence

The fate of soil carbon (C) is largely controlled by microbial oxidation of organic matter (OM), which is constrained by a variety of mechanisms. OM association with soil minerals provides pronounced protection against microbial decomposition. However, factors such as climate, occlusion, and resource limitations also contribute to OM preservation. Here, we explore the factors explaining C distribution and age within an upland rainforest soil in Hawai'i, a site with abundant preferential flow paths (PFPs) and high short-range order (SRO) mineral content. We characterized lateral and vertical changes in Δ 14 C, SRO mineral content, C-functional group chemistry, and microbial community composition to elucidate the contributions of multiple protection mechanisms to OM preservation. Consistent with our expectation, SRO mineral content and Δ 14 C were strongly correlated (R 2 = 0.95), indicating strong mineral protection of OM throughout the profile. Surprisingly, distance from PFP was also a significant predictor of Δ 14 C and improved model fit, particularly in the shallow horizons (R 2 = 0.97). Elevated C/N ratios, decreased microbial abundance, and greater SRO mineral content suggest nitrogen limitations and enhanced mineral protection constrain OM turnover with distance from PFPs in deep, subsurface mineral horizons. Steady microbial abundance, increasing putative anaerobe abundance, and changes in C-functional group chemistry indicate oxygen limitations constrain OM turnover in the matrix of shallow mineral horizons. Given that oxygen and nutrient limitations contribute to OM preservation in this high SRO system—an exemplar of mineral protection—resource limitations may play an even more important role in OM preservation in other well-structured soils.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Representing Global Soil Erosion and Sediment Flux in Earth System Models

Abstract Soil erosion produces enormous amounts of sediment, carbon, and nutrient fluxes from land to rivers, thus playing crucial roles in global biogeochemical cycles and food security. To predict soil erosion in the context of climate and land use changes, we explicitly parameterize cropland management actions (i.e., irrigation, conserved agriculture, and crop residue management) and geological factors (i.e., lithology and glacier) in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) soil erosion module. The erosion model is calibrated using a global‐scale regionalized parameter calibration method. The spatial variabilities of the modeled and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) based benchmark soil erosion are consistent across vegetation, climate and soil properties. Compared with independent data, our model shows a bias reduction in 59% of the observations relative to the RUSLE‐based soil erosion, with 53% of the bias reduction exceeding 50%. This improvement is mainly due to a better representation of the topographic effect on soil erosion. Our results indicate that conserved agriculture practices have effectively reduced soil erosion in cropland by over 25% in the United States and Argentina. In contrast, irrigation has increased soil erosion in many Asian countries. For upland sediment flux, our model is consistent with the WBMsed benchmark data in inter‐basin variability but could be more skillful in simulating intra‐basin variability because it couples soil erosion and sediment flux explicitly. The developed model provides useful skills for more realistic predictions of soil erosion and river sediment dynamics under environmental changes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Coastal Marsh Eco‐Geomorphologic Change on Saltwater Intrusion Under Future Sea Level Rise

Abstract Coastal saltwater intrusion (SWI) is one key factor that affects the hydrology, ecology, and biogeochemistry of coastal ecosystems. Future climate change, especially intensified sea level rise (SLR), is expected to trigger SWI to encroach on coastal freshwater aquifers more intensively. Numerous studies have investigated decadal/century scale SWI under SLR by assuming a static coastal landscape topography. However, coastal landscapes are highly dynamic in response to SLR, and the impact of coastal landscape evolution on SWI has received very little attention. Thus, this study used a coastal marsh landscape as an example and investigated how coastal marsh evolution affects future SWI with a physically‐based coastal hydro‐eco‐geomorphologic model, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator. Our numerical experiments showed that it is very likely that the marsh elevation increases with future SLR due to sediment deposition, and a depression zone is formed due to different marsh accretion rates between the ocean boundary and the inland. We found that marsh accretion may significantly reduce the surface saltwater inflow at the ocean boundary, and the evolved topographic depression zone may prolong the residence time of surface ponded saltwater, affecting subsurface salinity distribution differently. We also predicted that marshlands may become more sensitive to upland freshwater supply under future SLR, compared with previous predictions without marsh evolution. This study demonstrates the importance of coastal evolution to coastal freshwater‐saltwater interaction. The eco‐geomorphologic effect may not be ignored when evaluating coastal SWI under SLR at decadal or century scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Permafrost Landscape History Shapes Fluvial Chemistry, Ecosystem Carbon Balance, and Potential Trajectories of Future Change

Intensifying permafrost thaw alters carbon cycling by mobilizing large amounts of terrestrial substrate into aquatic ecosystems. Yet, few studies have measured aquatic carbon fluxes and constrained drivers of ecosystem carbon balance across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes. Here, we characterized hydrochemical and landscape controls on fluvial carbon cycling, quantified fluvial carbon fluxes, and estimated fluvial contributions to ecosystem carbon balance across 33 watersheds in four ecoregions in the continuous permafrost zone of the western Canadian Arctic: unglaciated uplands, ice-rich moraine, and organic-rich lowlands and till plains. Major ions, stable isotopes, and carbon speciation and fluxes revealed patterns in carbon cycling across ecoregions defined by terrain relief and accumulation of organics. In previously unglaciated mountainous watersheds, bicarbonate dominated carbon export (70% of total) due to chemical weathering of bedrock. In lowland watersheds, where soil organic carbon stores were largest, lateral transport of dissolved organic carbon (50%) and efflux of biotic CO 2 (25%) dominated. In watersheds affected by thaw-induced mass wasting, erosion of ice-rich tills enhanced chemical weathering and increased particulate carbon fluxes by two orders of magnitude. From an ecosystem carbon balance perspective, fluvial carbon export in watersheds not affected by thaw-induced wasting was, on average, equivalent to 6–16% of estimated net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Finally, in watersheds affected by thaw-induced wasting, fluvial carbon export approached 60% of NEE. Because future intensification of thermokarst activity will amplify fluvial carbon export, determining the fate of carbon across diverse northern landscapes is a priority for constraining trajectories of permafrost region ecosystem carbon balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Root and Microbial Soil CO 2 and CH 4 Fluxes Respond Differently to Seasonal and Episodic Environmental Changes in a Temperate Forest

Upland forest soils are typically major atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sources and methane (CH 4 ) sinks, but the contributions of root and microbial processes, as well as their separate temporal responses to environmental change, remain poorly understood. This 2-year study was conducted in a temperate, deciduous forest located on the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland, USA. We used temporal CO 2 and CH 4 flux measurements, exclusion-source partitioning, and an ecosystem-scale flooding experiment to understand how carbon (C) fluxes, and their root and microbial sources, respond to seasonal and episodic environmental change. Here, we show that the root-and-rhizosphere component of soil CO 2 and CH 4 flux is significant and that its dependence on soil temperature and volumetric water content (VWC) influences soil C dynamics at seasonal timescales. Experimental flooding shows that CO 2 and CH 4 flux responses to episodic moisture change were driven by suppression of soil heterotrophs, while root respiration did not respond to transient hydrologic disturbance. Methane uptake responded strongly to episodic inundation, reinforcing the important role of soil moisture in the short-term control of the forest soil CH 4 sink. However, despite the clear seasonality of CH 4 uptake, as well as its strong response to short-term experimental inundation, temperature and VWC were weak predictors of CH 4 uptake at a seasonal timescale. We suggest that CH 4 consumption in the long-term may be determined by vegetation, nutrients, microbial communities, or other factors correlated with seasonal changes. Our results indicate that root and microbial sources of both CO 2 and CH 4 flux respond differently in timing and magnitude to seasonal and episodic environmental change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

High–Resolution Maps of Near–Surface Permafrost for Three Watersheds on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska Derived From Machine Learning

Permafrost soils are a critical component of the global carbon cycle and are locally important because they regulate the hydrologic flux from uplands to rivers. Furthermore, degradation of permafrost soils causes land surface subsidence, damaging infrastructure that is crucial for local communities. Regional and hemispherical maps of permafrost are too coarse to resolve distributions at a scale relevant to assessments of infrastructure stability or to illuminate geomorphic impacts of permafrost thaw. Here we train machine learning models to generate meter–scale maps of near–surface permafrost for three watersheds in the discontinuous permafrost region. The models were trained using ground truth determinations of near–surface permafrost presence from measurements of soil temperature and electrical resistivity. We trained three classifiers: extremely randomized trees (ERTr), support vector machines (SVM), and an artificial neural network (ANN). Model uncertainty was determined using k–fold cross validation, and the modeled extents of near–surface permafrost were compared to the observed extents at each site. At–a–site near–surface permafrost distributions predicted by the ERTr produced the highest accuracy (70%–90%). However, the transferability of the ERTr to the sites outside of the training data set was poor, with accuracies ranging from 50% to 77%. The SVM and ANN models had lower accuracies for at–a–site prediction (70%–83%), yet they had greater accuracy when transferred to the non–training site (62%–78%). These models demonstrate the potential for integrating high–resolution spatial data and machine learning models to develop maps of near–surface permafrost extent at resolutions fine enough to assess infrastructure vulnerability and landscape morphology influenced by permafrost thaw.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hillslope-Channel Transitions and the Role of Water Tracks in a Changing Permafrost Landscape

The Arctic is experiencing rapid climate change, and the effect on hydrologic processes and resulting geomorphic changes to hillslopes and channels is unclear because we lack quantitative models and theory for rapid changes resulting from thawing permafrost. Here, the presence of permafrost modulates water flow and the stability of soil-mantled slopes, implying that there should be a signature of permafrost processes, including warming-driven disturbance, in channel network extent. To inform understanding of hillslope-channel dynamics under changing climates, we examined soil-mantled hillslopes within a ~300 km 2 area of the Seward Peninsula, western Alaska, where discontinuous permafrost is particularly susceptible to thaw and rapid landscape change. In this study, we pair high-resolution topographic and satellite data to multi-annual observations of InSAR-derived surface displacement over a 5-year period to quantify spatial variations in topographic change across an upland landscape. We find that neither the basin slope nor the presence of knickzones controls the magnitude of recent surface displacements within the study basin, as may be expected under conceptual models of temperate hillslope evolution. Rather, the highest displacement magnitudes tended to occur at the broad hillslope-channel transition zone. In this study area, this zone is occupied by water tracks, which are zero-order ecogeomorphic features that concentrate surface and subsurface flow paths. Our results suggest that water tracks, which appear to occupy hillslope positions between saturation and incision thresholds, are vulnerable to warming-induced subsidence and incision. We hypothesize that gullying within water tracks will outpace infilling by hillslope processes, resulting in the growth of the channel network under future warming.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Weathering Incongruence in Mountainous Mediterranean Climates Recorded by Stream Lithium Isotope Ratios

Lithium isotope ratios (δ 7 Li) of rivers are increasingly serving as a diagnostic of the balance between chemical and physical weathering contributions to overall landscape denudation rates. Here, we show that intermediate weathering intensities and highly enriched stream δ 7 Li values typically associated with lowland floodplains can also describe small upland watersheds subject to cool, wet climates. This behavior is revealed by stream δ 7 Li between +22.4 and +23.5‰ within a Critical Zone observatory located in the Cévennes region of southern France, where dilute stream solute concentrations and significant atmospheric deposition otherwise mask evidence of incongruence. The water-rock reaction pathways underlying this behavior are quantified through a multicomponent, isotope-enabled reactive transport model. Using geochemical characterization of soil profiles, bedrock, and long-term stream samples as constraints, we evolve the simulation from an initially unweathered granite to a steady state weathering profile which reflects the balance between (a) fluid infiltration and drainage and (b) bedrock uplift and soil erosion. Enriched stream δ 7 Li occurs because Li is strongly incorporated into actively precipitating secondary clay phases beyond what prior laboratory experiments have suggested. Chemical weathering incongruence is maintained despite relatively slow reaction rates and moderate clay accumulation due to a combination of two factors. First, reactive primary mineral phases persist across the weathering profile and effectively “shield” the secondary clays from resolubilization due to their greater solubility. Second, the clays accumulating in the near-surface profile are relatively mature weathering byproducts. These factors promote characteristically low total dissolved solute export from the catchment despite significant input of exogenous dust.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the Shift of Drivers of Soil Erosion and Sedimentation Based on Regional Process-Based Modeling in the Mississippi River Basin During the Past Century

Soil erosion and sedimentation problems remain a major water quality concern for making watershed management policies in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB). It is unclear whether the observed decreasing trend of stream suspended sediment loading to the mouth of the MRB over the last eight decades truly reflects a decline in upland soil erosion in this large basin. Here, for this work, we improved a distributed regional land surface model, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, to evaluate how climate and land use changes have impacted soil erosion and sediment yield over the entire MRB during the past century. Model results indicate that total sediment yield significantly increased during 1980–2018, despite no significant increase in annual precipitation and runoff. The increased soil erosion and sediment yield are mainly driven by intensified extreme precipitation (EP). Spatially, we found notable intensified EP events in the cropland-dominated Midwest region, resulting in a substantial increase in soil erosion and sediment yield. Land use change played a critical role in determining sediment yield from the 1910s to the 1930s, thereafter, climate variability increasingly became the dominant driver of soil erosion, which peaked in the 2010s. This study highlights the increasing influences of extreme climate in affecting soil erosion and sedimentation, thus, water quality. Therefore, existing forest and cropland Best Management Practices should be revisited to confront the impacts of climate change on water quality in the MRB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Mystery of Baselevel Controls in the Incision History of the Central Colorado Plateau

Erosion can remain active and changing in landscapes long after tectonic drivers have ceased, potentially due to local-geologic controls, climate changes, or geodynamics. We present new fluvial incision-rate histories and terrain analyses of the Colorado River system through the central Colorado Plateau to understand what has caused the variable erosion across this post-orogenic landscape. Results from new cosmogenic and luminescence dating of fluvial terrace and upland gravel deposits in Glen and Meander Canyons establish incision-rate histories that are marked by an Early-Middle Pleistocene erosion hiatus, followed by ~200 m of rapid incision over the last ~350 kyr. Projection of fluvial topography from above knickzones of the Colorado River drainage system roughly agree with the observed magnitude of recent incision and reflect a common baselevel fall from Pliocene river integration through Grand Canyon, which is still propagating through the drainage. A response-time model indicates that baselevel fall from integration likely took 2–4 Myr to reach the central Colorado Plateau and 100s kyr to travel across the study area, potentially accounting for incision rate changes in the fluvial terrace records of Meander and Glen Canyons. The upstream-migrating incision has likely been partitioned into multiple waves across the landscape due to the local geologic controls of lava damming, salt tectonics, and heterogenous bedrock. As baselevel fall from Pliocene Colorado River integration diffuses upstream, it can only account for perhaps a quarter of the total ~2 km of exhumation in the central Colorado Plateau, demanding an unknown driver for significant erosion in the Pliocene.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Antecedent Hydrologic Conditions Reflected in Stream Lithium Isotope Ratios During Storms

Antecedent hydrological conditions are recorded through the evolution of dissolved lithium isotope signatures (δ 7 Li) by juxtaposing two storm events in an upland watershed subject to a Mediterranean climate. Discharge and δ 7 Li are negatively correlated in both events,but mean δ 7 Li ratios and associated ranges of variation are distinct between them. We apply a previously developed reactive transport model (RTM) for the site to these event-scale flow perturbations, but observed shifts in stream δ 7 Li are not reproduced. To reconcile the stability of the subsurface solute weathering profile with our observations of dynamic stream δ 7 Li signatures, we couple the RTM to a distribution of fluid transit times that evolve based on storm hydrographs. The approach guides appropriate flux-weighting of fluid from the RTM over a range of flow path lengths, or equivalently fluid residence times. This flux-weighted RTM approach accurately reproduces dynamic storm δ 7 Li-discharge patterns distinguished by the antecedent conditions of the watershed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Topography Controls Variability in Circumpolar Permafrost Thaw Pond Expansion

Abstract One of the most conspicuous signals of climate change in high‐latitude tundra is the expansion of ice wedge thermokarst pools. These small but abundant water features form rapidly in depressions caused by the melting of ice wedges (i.e., meter‐scale bodies of ice embedded within the top of the permafrost). Pool expansion impacts subsequent thaw rates through a series of complex positive and negative feedbacks which play out over timescales of decades and may accelerate carbon release from the underlying sediments. Although many local observations of ice wedge thermokarst pool expansion have been documented, analyses at continental to pan‐Arctic scales have been rare, hindering efforts to project how strongly this process may impact the global carbon cycle. Here we present one of the most geographically extensive and temporally dense records yet compiled of recent pool expansion, in which changes to pool area from 2008 to 2020 were quantified through satellite‐image analysis at 27 survey areas (measuring 10–35 km 2 each, or 400 km 2 in total) dispersed throughout the circumpolar tundra. The results revealed instances of rapid expansion at 44% (15%) of survey areas. Considered alone, the extent of departures from historical mean air temperatures did not account for between site variation in rates of change to pool area. Pool growth was most clearly associated with upland (i.e., hilly) terrain and elevated silt content at soil depths greater than one meter. These findings suggest that, at short time scales, pedologic and geomorphologic conditions may exert greater control on pool dynamics in the warming Arctic than spatial variability in the rate of air temperature increases.

Abolt, C. J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Shrub Expansion Can Counteract Carbon Losses From Warming Tundra

Arctic warming is causing substantial compositional, structural, and functional changes in tundra vegetation including shrub and tree-line expansion and densification. However, predicting the carbon trajectories of the changing Arctic is challenging due to interacting feedbacks between vegetation composition and structure, and surface characteristics. We conduct a sensitivity analysis of the current-date to 2100 projected surface energy fluxes, soil carbon pools, and CO 2 fluxes to different shrub expansion rates under future emission scenarios (intermediate—RCP4.5, and high—RCP8.5) using the Arctic-focused configuration of E3SM Land Model (ELM). We focus on Trail Valley Creek (TVC), an upland tundra site in the western Canadian Arctic, which is experiencing shrub densification and expansion. We find that shrub expansion did not significantly alter the modeled surface energy and water budgets. However, the carbon balance was sensitive to shrub expansion, which drove higher rates of carbon sequestration as a consequence of higher shrubification rates. Thus, at low shrub expansion rates, the site would become a carbon source, especially under RCP8.5, due to higher temperatures, which deepen the active layer and enhance soil respiration. At higher shrub expansion rates, TVC would become a net CO 2 sink under both Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios due to higher shrub productivity outweighing temperature-driven respiration increase. Our simulations highlight the effect of shrub expansion on Arctic ecosystem carbon fluxes and stocks. We predict that at TVC, shrubification rate would interact with climate change intensity to determine whether the site would become a carbon sink or source under projected future climate.

Yazbeck, Theresia [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus,↗