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At least 163 records · Page 9

Upper Limits of Predictability in Long-Range Climate/Hydrologic Forecasts

The accurate forecasting of el nino or la nina conditions in the tropical Pacific can potentially lead to valuable predictions of hydrological anomalies over land at seasonal to interannual timescales. Even with highly accurate earth system models, though, our ability to generate these continental forecasts will always be limited by the chaotic nature of the atmospheric circulation. The nature of this fundamental limitation is explored through the use of 16-member ensembles of multi-decade GCM simulations. In each simulation of the first ensemble, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are given the same realistic interannual variations over a 45-year period, and land surface state is allowed to evolve with that of the atmosphere. Analysis of the results shows that the SSTs control the temporal organization of continental precipitation anomalies to a significant extent in the tropics and to a much smaller extent in midlatitudes. In each simulation of the second ensemble, we prescribe SSTs as before, but we also prescribe interannual variations in the low frequency component of evaporation efficiency over land. Thus, in the second ensemble, we effectively make the extreme assumption that surface boundary conditions across the globe are perfectly predictable, and we quantify the consistency with which the atmosphere (particularly precipitation) responds to these boundary conditions. The resulting "absolute upper limit" on the predictability of precipitation is found to be quite high in the tropics yet only moderate in many midlatitude regions.

Koster, R. D.↗

Statistical methods for astronomical data with upper limits. II - Correlation and regression

Statistical methods for calculating correlations and regressions in bivariate censored data where the dependent variable can have upper or lower limits are presented. Cox's regression and the generalization of Kendall's rank correlation coefficient provide significant levels of correlations, and the EM algorithm, under the assumption of normally distributed errors, and its nonparametric analog using the Kaplan-Meier estimator, give estimates for the slope of a regression line. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that survival analysis is reliable in determining correlations between luminosities at different bands. Survival analysis is applied to CO emission in infrared galaxies, X-ray emission in radio galaxies, H-alpha emission in cooling cluster cores, and radio emission in Seyfert galaxies.

Isobe, T.↗

An upper limit for the absorption cross section of the oxygen C 3 Delta u - a 1 Delta g transition

Frederick and Cicerone (1985) have proposed that photodissociation of O2 (a 1 Delta g) by the process O2 (a 1 Delta g) + h-nu + O2 (C 3 Delta u) to O(3 P) + O(3 P) may be a major source of odd oxygen in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. They argued that, since the process is forbidden only by change in the spin multiplicity, it might have been a cross section intermediate between a fully allowed and a strictly forbidden transition, i.e., 10 to the -20th to 10 to the -19th sq cm near 250 nm. In order to test this proposal, absorption by O2 (a 1 Delta g) has been measured in the 190-290 nm wavelength region. No absorption above the detection limit could be observed for O2 (a 1 Delta g) concentrations of (4-7) x 10 to the 15th/cu cm. An upper limit of 8 x 10 to the -22 sq cm was calculated for the cross section.

Simonaitis, R.↗

An upper limit to the infrared background from observations of TeV gamma rays

An upper bound to the energy density of infrared background radiation is derived from considering the effect of gamma-gamma interactions on the observed TeV gamma-ray spectrum of the active galaxy Markarian 421. This upper bound proves to be the most restrictive for the wavelength range of 10-12 micrometers. These constraints are presently limited by the uncertainty of extrapolating the source spectrum from 5 to 500 GeV. Observations in the regime less than 100 GeV would significantly improve these limits, allowing for a wide range of IR production models to be constrained.

Biller, S. D.↗

Metallic Species, Oxygen and Silicon in the Lunar Exosphere: Upper Limits and Prospects for LADEE Measurements

The only species that have been so far detected in the lunar exosphere are Na, K, Ar,and He. However, models for the production and loss of species derived from the lunarregolith through micrometeoroid impact vaporization, sputtering, and photon-stimulateddesorption, predict that a host of other species should exist in the lunar exosphere.Assuming that loss processes are limited to ballistic escape, photoionization, and recyclingto the surface, we have computed column abundances and compared them to publishedupper limits for the Moon. Only for Ca do modeled abundances clearly exceed theavailable measurements. This result suggests the relevance of some loss processes thatwere not included in the model, such as the possibility of gas-to-solid phasecondensation during micrometeoroid impacts or the formation of stable metallic oxides.Our simulations and the recalculation of efficiencies for resonant light scattering showthat models for other species studied are not well constrained by existingmeasurements. This fact underlines the need for improved remote and in situmeasurements of the lunar exosphere such as those planned by the Lunar Atmosphereand Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE) spacecraft. Our simulations of the LADEEneutral mass spectrometer and visibleultraviolet spectrometer indicate that LADEE measurements promise to provide definitive observations or set stringent upper limitsfor all regolith-driven exospheric species. We predict that observations by LADEE willconstrain assumed model parameters for the exosphere of the Moon.

lunar exosphere↗