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At least 163 records · Page 9

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DOE OSTI2021

Breaking Down the Computational Barriers to Real-Time Urban Flood Forecasting

Flooding impacts are on the rise globally, and concentrated in urban areas. Currently, there are no operational systems to forecast flooding at spatial resolutions that can facilitate emergency preparedness and response actions mitigating flood impacts. We present a framework for real-time flood modeling and uncertainty quantification that combines the physics of fluid motion with advances in probabilistic methods. The framework overcomes the prohibitive computational demands of high-fidelity modeling in real-time by using a probabilistic learning method relying on surrogate models that are trained prior to a flood event. This shifts the overwhelming burden of computation to the trivial problem of data storage, and enables forecasting of both flood hazard and its uncertainty at scales that are vital for time-critical decision-making before and during extreme events. The framework has the potential to improve flood prediction and analysis and can be extended to other hazard assessments requiring intense high-fidelity computations in real-time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mitigating urban heat island and enhancing indoor thermal comfort using terrace garden

The United Nations advocates for sustainable urban planning and design, emphasizing green infrastructure initiatives to mitigate urban heat island effects and enhance the resilience and livability of cities globally. To address urban heat challenges, a study was conducted in Chennai, India, from April to June 2023. The study focused on assessing temperature dynamics on a building's terrace by comparing a well-maintained garden area with an exposed region. Temperature and humidity sensors were deployed in both the garden and exposed areas of the terrace, as well as within rooms beneath it, to monitor hourly temperature fluctuations. The findings indicate a significant reduction in internal room temperatures in areas with rooftop gardens, ranging from 4 to 11 °C, depending on the time of year and sun's position, compared to rooms with fully exposed roof configurations. Additionally, simulation studies were performed to validate these findings, suggesting that optimizing the distribution of soil beds and plant density across the roof could yield an additional temperature reduction of 3–4 °C, resulting in an overall difference of up to 14–15 °C. The study highlights the efficacy of rooftop gardens in providing cooling effects during daylight hours and maintaining temperature parity post-sunset. Through analysis of sensor data, the research elucidates the intricate relationship between green infrastructure and thermal comfort, offering insights for energy-efficient building design and resilient urban planning. The findings underscore the potential of rooftop gardens in fostering a more comfortable, energy-efficient, and sustainable urban living environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessment of doses in contaminated urban areas: modelling exercise based on Fukushima data

State-of-the-art dose assessment models were applied to estimate doses to the population in urban areas contaminated by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Assessment results were compared among five models, and comparisons of model predictions with actual measurements were also made. Assessments were performed using both probabilistic and deterministic approaches. Predicted dose distributions for indoor and outdoor workers from a probabilistic approach were in good agreement with the actual measurements. In addition, when the models were applied to assess the doses to the representative person, based on a concept recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection and in the International Atomic Energy Agency Safety Standards, it was evident that doses to the representative person obtained with a deterministic approach were always higher than those obtained with a probabilistic approach using the same model.

dose assessment↗

DOE OSTI2022

The missing base molecules in atmospheric acid–base nucleation

Abstract Transformation of low-volatility gaseous precursors to new particles affects aerosol number concentration, cloud formation and hence the climate. The clustering of acid and base molecules is a major mechanism driving fast nucleation and initial growth of new particles in the atmosphere. However, the acid–base cluster composition, measured using state-of-the-art mass spectrometers, cannot explain the measured high formation rate of new particles. Here we present strong evidence for the existence of base molecules such as amines in the smallest atmospheric sulfuric acid clusters prior to their detection by mass spectrometers. We demonstrate that forming (H2SO4)1(amine)1 is the rate-limiting step in atmospheric H2SO4-amine nucleation and the uptake of (H2SO4)1(amine)1 is a major pathway for the initial growth of H2SO4 clusters. The proposed mechanism is very consistent with measured new particle formation in urban Beijing, in which dimethylamine is the key base for H2SO4 nucleation while other bases such as ammonia may contribute to the growth of larger clusters. Our findings further underline the fact that strong amines, even at low concentrations and when undetected in the smallest clusters, can be crucial to particle formation in the planetary boundary layer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spatiotemporal predictions of toxic urban plumes using deep learning

Industrial accidents, chemical spills, and structural fires can release large amounts of harmful materials that disperse into urban atmospheres and impact populated areas. Computer models are typically used to predict the transport of toxic plumes by solving fluid dynamical equations. However, these models can be computationally expensive due to the need for many grid cells to simulate turbulent flow and resolve individual buildings and streets. In emergency response situations, alternative methods are needed that can run quickly and adequately capture important spatiotemporal features. Here, we present a novel deep learning model called ST-GasNet inspired by the mathematical equations that govern the behavior of plumes as they disperse through the atmosphere. ST-GasNet learns the spatiotemporal dependencies from a limited set of temporal sequences of ground-level toxic urban plumes generated by a high-resolution large eddy simulation model. On independent sequences, ST-GasNet accurately predicts the late-time spatiotemporal evolution, given the early-time behavior as an input, even when a building splits a large plume into smaller plumes. By incorporating large-scale wind boundary condition information, ST-GasNet achieves a prediction accuracy of at least 90% on test data for the entire prediction period.

Civil and Environmental Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2021

Using heterogeneous data to identify signatures of dengue outbreaks at fine spatio-temporal scales across Brazil

Dengue virus remains a significant public health challenge in Brazil, and seasonal preparation efforts are hindered by variable intra- and interseasonal dynamics. Here, we present a framework for characterizing weekly dengue activity at the Brazilian mesoregion level from 2010–2016 as time series properties that are relevant to forecasting efforts, focusing on outbreak shape, seasonal timing, and pairwise correlations in magnitude and onset. In addition, we use a combination of 18 satellite remote sensing imagery, weather, clinical, mobility, and census data streams and regression methods to identify a parsimonious set of covariates that explain each time series property. The models explained 54% of the variation in outbreak shape, 38% of seasonal onset, 34% of pairwise correlation in outbreak timing, and 11% of pairwise correlation in outbreak magnitude. Regions that have experienced longer periods of drought sensitivity, as captured by the “normalized burn ratio,” experienced less intense outbreaks, while regions with regular fluctuations in relative humidity had less regular seasonal outbreaks. Both the pairwise correlations in outbreak timing and outbreak trend between mesoresgions were best predicted by distance. Our analysis also revealed the presence of distinct geographic clusters where dengue properties tend to be spatially correlated. Forecasting models aimed at predicting the dynamics of dengue activity need to identify the most salient variables capable of contributing to accurate predictions. Our findings show that successful models may need to leverage distinct variables in different locations and be catered to a specific task, such as predicting outbreak magnitude or timing characteristics, to be useful. This advocates in favor of “adaptive models” rather than “one-size-fits-all” models. The results of this study can be applied to improving spatial hierarchical or target-focused forecasting models of dengue activity across Brazil.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Impact of Intersection Control on Battery Electric Vehicle Energy Consumption

Battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales have significantly increased in recent years. They have different energy consumption patterns compared to the fuel consumption patterns of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). This study quantified the impact of intersection control approaches—roundabout, traffic signal, and two-way stop controls—on BEVs’ energy consumption. The paper systematically investigates BEVs’ energy consumption patterns compared to the fuel consumption of ICEVs. The results indicate that BEVs’ energy consumption patterns are significantly different than ICEVs’ patterns. For example, for BEVs approaching a high-speed intersection, the roundabout was found to be the most energy-efficient intersection control, while the two-way stop sign was the least efficient. In contrast, for ICEVs, the two-way stop sign was the most fuel-efficient control, while the roundabout was the least efficient. Findings also indicate that the energy saving of traffic signal coordination was less significant for BEVs compared to the fuel consumption of ICEVs since more regenerative energy is produced when partial or poorly coordinated signal plans are implemented. The study confirms that BEV regenerative energy is a major factor in energy efficiency, and that BEVs recover different amounts of energy in different urban driving environments. The study suggests that new transportation facilities and control strategies should be designed to enhance BEVs’ energy efficiency, particularly in zero emission zones.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Horne et al. (2026) supporting files - WRF-LES model outputs for a summer heatwave event on June 2025 in Baltimore, MD

Brief Description Shown is the supporting information for Horne et al. (2026). These files include all outputs from the WRF model simulations and the observational datasets used for comparison in the study. Scripts are provided so users can recreate the manuscript's figures using the provided observational and modeling data. For more information regarding the study, please contact the primary author of the associated manuscript, Jason Horne. Horne, J. P., Pan, Y., Davis, K. J., Waugh, D., Ahlswede, B. J., Prince, N. E. (2026). Simulating near-surface environments in urban neighborhoods using WRF-LES: A case study of classic atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) during a heatwave event JAMES. (to be submitted)

atmosphere↗

DOE OSTI2026

Horne et al. (2026) supporting files - WRF-LES model outputs for a summer heatwave event on June 2025 in Baltimore, MD

atmosphere↗

DOE OSTI2021

MapSpace: POI-based Multi-Scale Global Land Use Modeling

Accurate and up-to-date land use maps are important to the study of human-environment interactions, urban morphology, environmental justice, etc. Traditional land use mapping approaches involve several surveys and expert knowledge of the region to be mapped. While traditional approaches generate accurate and authoritative maps, it is expensive and takes a long time to develop a new version of map. Besides, such maps have region-specific spatial embedding, making them difficult to benchmark and compare against other land use maps. This work introduces a scalable POI-based land use modeling approach to generate global land use maps at multiple spatial scales and different semantic granularities. In addition, our land use maps adhere to a unified land use categories and can be compared for accuracy and precision.

Thakur, Gautam Malviya↗

DOE OSTI2026

CoURAGE KAZR b1 Processing: Corrections, Calibrations, and Processing Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility supports atmospheric and earth system research through a comprehensive network of fixed and mobile observatories. These facilities provide long-term and intensive campaign-based observations of clouds, aerosols, precipitation, radiation, and meteorological state variables. ARM observations are designed to improve the physical understanding and numerical representation of atmospheric processes in earth system models, with particular emphasis on cloud-radiation interactions and precipitation processes. The Coast-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE) deploys one of the ARM Mobile Facilities (AMF) to the Mid-Atlantic region surrounding Baltimore, Maryland, for the period 1 December 2024 through 30 November 2025. This deployment focuses on characterizing atmospheric structure, cloud properties, and precipitation processes across strong land-use and surface heterogeneity gradients associated with urban, rural, and coastal (Chesapeake Bay) environments. The CoURAGE deployment complements the Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative (BSEC), a DOE Urban Integrated Field Laboratory (UIFL), by providing high-quality atmospheric observations needed to connect urban surface processes, emissions, and meteorology to cloud and precipitation responses. In addition to the central urban site, ancillary observing sites were deployed to rural Maryland northwest of Baltimore and to an island site in Chesapeake Bay. These measurements further complement a long-term atmospheric observatory operated in Beltsville, Maryland, by Howard University in collaboration with the Maryland Department of the Environment. Together, these assets form a four-node regional atmospheric observatory network representing Baltimore and its three primary surrounding environments—urban, rural, and coastal/bay. This coordinated observational strategy enables investigation of spatial gradients in boundary-layer structure, cloud occurrence, precipitation evolution, and aerosol-cloud interactions across complex surface regimes. Within this network, vertically pointing cloud radars play a critical role by providing continuous, high-resolution measurements of cloud and precipitation vertical structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying the effects of urbanization on floods in a changing environment to promote water security — A case study of two adjacent basins in Texas

The increased occurrence of flood events resulting from urbanization and global climate change is a great threat to water security. To systematically evaluate the impacts of urbanization on floods, here we applied a paired catchments approach to two adjacent river basins in south-central Texas — the San Antonio River Basin (SARB), with fast urbanization; and the Guadalupe River Basin (GRB), with little land cover change. A physics-based distributed hydrological model — the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model, embedded with a multi-purpose reservoir module (DHSVM-Res) — was used to simulate streamflow and reservoir storage. The simulations were conducted under different land cover scenarios, including a newly developed continuous land cover series (CLCS). Holistic analyses were then conducted for the paired basins using three methods: analyzing the selected flood events, detecting change points (CP) of monthly floods, and testing the elasticity of long-term flood regimes. The results suggest that: (1) urbanization may reduce lag time and elevate flood peaks significantly by 3–30% in our study area; (2) when there is little land cover change, changing climate is the major driver of variations in the monthly maximum streamflow (MMS); (3) fast urbanization can amplify streamflow variability, increase MMS significantly, and thus alter the timing of CP; and (4) the mean MMS of observed streamflow in the SARB has increased by as much as 75.7% from the pre-CP to post-CP periods. This comprehensive study fills in a gap in our current understanding of the isolated impacts of urbanization on flooding and is expected to support future explorations of anthropogenic influences on floods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Model America - 2022 Arizona Building Energy Simulation Results from ORNL's AutoBEM

This dataset contains energy simulation outputs using ORNL's AutoBEM, covering the summer months (June 1st to August 31st) (named by "county_name.csv") and full-year periods (in output_all_year.zip) for each county in Arizona, USA. The data package includes simulation results such as basic energy metrics and anthropogenic emissions estimates. Files are provided in .csv. These data were generated to analyze the impact of weather conditions on energy use and emissions across urban and rural environments in Arizona, aiming to support research on urban heat islands, energy efficiency, and building retrofitting strategies. The source data for this work include NASA POWER weather datasets and computational models run using AutoBEM (i.e., an automated, large-scale energy simulation tool leveraging OpenStudio/EnergyPlus). This dataset can assist researchers, urban planners, and policymakers in developing climate-resilient energy systems and understanding anthropogenic contributions to local environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Desert-Urban SysTem IntegratEd AtmospherIc Monsoon (DUSTIEAIM) in the Southwestern United States

Phoenix, Arizona, is the fifth-largest city in the United States with about 1.6 million residents. It is also considered to be the hottest major city in the country, having set a record of 31 consecutive days with temperatures above 110 F (43 C) in summer 2023. Phoenix depends on the Colorado River for over a third of its water supply, but there are questions about how much water will eventually be available to serve the rapidly growing metropolitan area, especially in such extreme heat. Current earth system models struggle to accurately capture precipitation in the Southwestern United States, especially in relation to the summertime North American Monsoon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

CareWELL: Multimodal Region Representation Learning with Spatial Contexts for Urban Health

Rapid urbanization affects living environments by intensifying exposure to air pollution, heat, noise, and urban dynamics, which together contribute to uneven health outcomes across neighborhoods. For instance, cardiovascular, respiratory, and mental health conditions are each influenced by distinct exposures such as air pollution, extreme temperatures, or limited access to green space. These heterogeneous patterns require understanding the characteristics of geographic regions in order to explain why urban health risks vary across urban areas. Recent work in self-supervised region representation learning provides a promising way to model such characteristics from multimodal geospatial data. However, existing methods face two major limitations: (i) they often depend on non-public datasets, limiting reproducibility and applicability, and (ii) their generic pretraining objectives overlook health-relevant determinants, including temporal variability in environmental exposures and inequalities in social conditions. To address these gaps, we propose Context-Aware Region rEpresentation with Weather, Environment, and Location Learning (CareWELL). CareWELL leverages large language models to encode seasonal variability in weather, employs contrastive learning to align geo-coordinate and weather representations, and introduces a context-aware objective that integrates socio-demographic factors while preserving spatial correlations. We evaluate CareWELL by predicting six urban health outcomes in Manhattan, New York City, and demonstrate that CareWELL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines as well as a traditional spatial computing method. These results suggest the importance of context-aware pretraining objectives for learning health-relevant region representations.

Namgung, Min [ORNL]↗

DOE OSTI2026

The birth of a field through a marriage of scales: urban meteorological modeling meets regional climate modeling

Urban meteorological modeling and regional climate modeling developed largely independently, with each discipline addressing different aspects of atmospheric processes across space and time. In this review, I show that urban climate modeling did not arise as a simple scaling extension of urban meteorological modeling or an add-on to regional climate modeling, but instead emerged through the selective inheritance of complementary strengths from its parents after both disciplines reached sufficient methodological maturity. By tracing the parallel evolution of these disciplines, I demonstrate that urban climate modeling inherited the physically explicit treatment of the built environment developed within urban meteorological modeling, and the hierarchical scale translation and climatological framing that matured within regional climate modeling, allowing urban effects to influence climate-relevant outcomes. Building on this synthesis, I propose an objective, and methodologically-grounded definition of urban climate modeling that distinguishes it from urban meteorological modeling. This distinction is increasingly important as urban climate data informs decisions with long-lived societal consequences, and as ambiguity in terminology risks conflating fundamentally different modeling frameworks with distinct physical meaning and decision relevance. In addition to a clarifying definition, this review outlines a research framework for advancing urban climate modeling through scale-aware coupling strategies that preserve physically consistent urban-atmosphere interactions.

regional climate↗

DOE OSTI2025

Application of Atmospheric Gases and Particulate Matter to the Assessment of Urban Heat Island

Background: Urban heat island (UHI), where built areas are warmer compared to non-urban regions, increases human related diseases and mortality. A key challenge in UHI analysis is the designation of sites as urban or suburban/rural; however, the growing complexity of green spaces in urban areas and the predominance of the transportation sector in nonurban areas creates a dilemma for distinct delineation. Objectives: This study aims to utilize the variability of atmospheric components such as particulate matter (PM), inorganic gases, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) as direct tracers of the degree of urbanization for ground-based measurements to fully comprehend UHI in convoluted regions with indistinct delineation of urban and nonurban environments. Methods: Atmospheric gases and aerosols were used as direct tracers of urbanization for UHI analysis. Inorganic gases and particulate matter were monitored in two sites in a southeastern US city with varying degrees of urbanization. VOCs were analyzed using a proton transfer reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometer. Results: The more-urbanized site exhibited warmer night conditions and elevated total oxidant levels, leading to the formation of nanometer-sized particles. Machine learning analysis revealed similar atmospheric pollutant profiles for both sites, suggesting comparable sources and variability. Biogenic VOCs were enhanced at the less-urbanized site; however, levels of anthropogenic aromatic VOCs were comparable for both sites. A comprehensive mass spectra analysis revealed distinct molecular backbones per site that further affirmed the applicability of VOCs as indicators of urbanization. Conclusion: This study concludes that VOCs provide more direct and accurate information than typical inorganic gases and PM parameters for characterizing the degree of urbanization. Further exploration of VOCs can enhance our understanding of UHI dynamics and its interaction with vegetation in urban green spaces.

Air quality sensor↗

DOE OSTI2020

Urban-Scale Processes in High-Spatial-Resolution Earth System Models

Cities and their associated urban areas have a much larger impact on the environment than their spatial footprint on the Earth's surface. This is undoubtedly true at local and regional scales, but also at global scales. At this time, more than half of the world's population lives in urban areas (80% in the United States), and the global proportion is projected to climb to 70% by 2050. Therefore, numerical models to study physics, chemistry, and biology affecting the Earth system at regional and global scales must represent the effects of urban areas on climate and the effects of a changing climate on urban areas. At the same time, it is essential to develop state of the art, simple and accurate urban models to better understand the relevant processes and also to address issues related to urban security against the spectra of chemical, biological and radiological (CBR) hazards. Towards bringing urban scientific communities together, a two-and-a-half-day international workshop was held at the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) in the Chicago area on May 22-24, 2019. This workshop brought together more than 60 national and international experts to develop a roadmap for a better understanding of the issues associated with urban areas and at enhancing the capabilities of regional and global Earth System models (ESMs) in representing the atmospheric dynamics and chemistry, unique aspects of the biosphere and land use, and human dimensions of the urban environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗