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DOE OSTI2025

High resolution variability in wet deposition in the southeastern United States

Rainwater chemistry is determined by atmospheric pollutants and particles which vary spatially and temporally. Industrial and agricultural activities and meteorological events (e.g. sea breezes, severe weather, blowing dust) alter atmospheric particle and trace gas compositions. These gases and particles are scavenged by cloud and rain droplets that drive wet deposition. During an Intensive Operation Period (IOP) from April to October 2021, rainwater was collected at higher frequency intervals, usually daily, after precipitation events at three locations on the Savannah River Site (SRS). The farthest locations were separated by approximately 20 km. The mean concentration (μeq/L) of seven ions followed the Cl⁻ > SO 4 2− > Na⁺ > NO 3 ⁻ > K⁺ > Mg 2+ > Ca 2+ downward trend. Ion concentrations were compared to background ion concentrations from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP). The high frequency monthly averaged SRS data compared well with the monthly averaged NADP background but demonstrated extensive variability. In some months in 2021, the high frequency data compared better to the NADP site near the coast while in other months inland sites compared better. Strong spatial variability for ion concentrations was observed across SRS which was attributed to localized impacts in rainfall spatial variability. High frequency measurements allowed for comparison to regional weather patterns indicating influences from the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and cities. This can account for spatial variability in the wet deposition flux. Sea breezes, Saharan dust, and anthropogenic sources were shown to impact wet deposition flux variability. Higher frequency precipitation chemistry sampling at numerous locations better captures ion concentration variability and improves measurement representativeness.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A novel conditional generative model for efficient ensemble forecasts of state variables in large-scale geological carbon storage

Integrating monitoring data to efficiently update reservoir pressure and CO 2 plume distribution forecasts presents a significant challenge in geological carbon storage (GCS) applications. Inverse modeling techniques are commonly used to fuse observational data and refine reservoir model parameters, thereby improving state variable forecasts. However, these techniques often rely on linear or Gaussian assumptions, which can limit their effectiveness in accurately predicting state variables. Moreover, simulating large-scale three-dimensional (3D) GCS problems is computationally expensive, making iterative runs in inverse problems prohibitive. To address these challenges, we propose a conditional generative model utilizing the score-based diffusion method for real-time 3D pressure and saturation field distribution predictions. Our approach involves solving the score function with a mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimator to generate labeled data. This data is subsequently employed to train a fully connected neural network, enabling it to learn the conditional sample generator within a supervised learning framework. This method enables the rapid generation of a large ensemble of predictions, facilitating comprehensive uncertainty quantification of state variables. Here we applied our method to forecast the dynamic 3D distributions of pressure and saturation fields over a 30-year injection period. The statistical assessment with low root mean square error (RMSE) values demonstrates that our method can accurately predict the spatiotemporal distributions of both pressure and saturation fields. Moreover, the developed conditional generative model shows high computational efficiency by generating 100 ensemble forecasts of 3D state variables in less than 10 min. The consistency between ensemble averages and ground truth values further illustrates the model’s capability to capture state variable dynamics during the CO 2 plume injection process. Notably, the ground truth values fall within the ensemble forecasts, indicating that our uncertainty quantification effectively captures variability and potential noise in the observations. Thus, the developed conditional generative model proves to be a more efficient, accurate, and practical tool for GCS applications, facilitating timely risk analysis and informed decision-making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Separate the Role of Southern and Northern Extra‐Tropical Pacific in Tropical Pacific Climate Variability

Abstract Observational and modeling studies have elucidated the influential role played by the southern and northern extratropical Pacific (SEP and NEP) forcing in shaping dynamics of tropical Pacific climate variability. However, the relative importance of the NEP and SEP and the timescale on which they impact the tropics remain unclear. Using a linear inverse model (LIM) that selectively incorporates or excludes tropical‐extratropical coupling, we find a reduction in tropical interannual variability (∼40%) and low‐frequency (sub‐decadal to decadal) variability in the southeastern tropical Pacific region (∼70%) in the absence of SEP. Conversely, the absence of NEP yields no significant impact on tropical interannual variability but markedly diminishes low‐frequency variability in the central tropical Pacific region (∼70%). LIM and statistic diagnostics on CMIP6 models show the low‐frequency to total variability ratio in the tropical Pacific depending on their NEP and SEP representation. Models with more (less) low‐frequency power tend to show stronger NEP (SEP) dynamics.

Geology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Insights into catalyst degradation during alkaline water electrolysis under variable operation

Energy conversion technologies that are key to decarbonization efforts face significant durability challenges due to variable operation. Understanding the impact of variable operation on catalytic stability and identifying the key variables that dictate degradation is crucial for developing robust technologies. Here, we present a comprehensive investigation of the effects of variable operation on liquid alkaline water electrolysis. Our findings reveal that variable operation induces severe degradation of Ni, Fe, and Co catalytic films that is not observed during steady-state operation. By systematically interrogating the electrode discharge during simulated shutdown tests using Raman spectroscopy and mass spectrometry techniques, we uncover significant alterations caused by reverse currents in real time. These include changes in crystal structure, composition, film thickness, electronic conductivity, and dissolution rates. Lab-scale electrolyzer experiments further highlight the impact of variable operation on catalyst materials under relevant conditions. Finally, we provide guidelines for leveraging these insights to advance electrocatalysis research. This work underscores the importance of integrating realistic stressors into stability testing and offers practical guidelines for catalyst design, performance evaluation, and industrial implementation. Collectively, insights from this study will drive the development of more resilient energy conversion technologies.

Marquez, Raul A. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (Unit↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning method for enforcing variable independence in background estimation with LHC data: ABCDisCoTEC

A novel solution is presented for the problem of estimating the backgrounds of a signal search using observed data while simultaneously maximizing the sensitivity of the search to the signal. The 'ABCD method' provides a reliable framework for background estimation by partitioning events into one signal-enhanced region (A) and three background-enhanced control regions (B, C, and D) via two smoothly varying, statistically independent variables. In practice, even slight correlations between the two variables can significantly undermine the method's performance. Thus, choosing appropriate variables by hand can present a formidable challenge, especially when background and signal differ only subtly. To address this issue, the ABCD with distance correlation (ABCDisCo) method was developed to construct two learned variables via a neural network trained to provide strong signal-background discrimination with small values of the distance correlation (DisCo) measure between the two learned variables. However, relying solely on minimizing the DisCo can result in learned variables that may not have distributions of background events that are smoothly varying and localized at extreme values, as necessary for the validity of the background estimation. The ABCDisCo training enhanced with closure (ABCDisCoTEC) method is introduced to solve this issue by directly minimizing the nonclosure, expressed as a dedicated differentiable loss term. This extended method is applied to a data set of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV recorded by the CMS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Additionally, given the complexity of the minimization problem with constraints on multiple loss terms, the modified differential method of multipliers is applied and shown to greatly improve the stability and robustness of the ABCDisCoTEC method, compared to grid search hyperparameter optimization procedures.

Hayrapetyan, Aram [Yerevan Phys. Inst.]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the impact of anatomical and physiological variability on human equivalent doses using PBPK models

Abstract Addressing human anatomical and physiological variability is a crucial component of human health risk assessment of chemicals. Experts have recommended probabilistic chemical risk assessment paradigms in which distributional adjustment factors are used to account for various sources of uncertainty and variability, including variability in the pharmacokinetic behavior of a given substance in different humans. In practice, convenient assumptions about the distribution forms of adjustment factors and human equivalent doses (HEDs) are often used. Parameters such as tissue volumes and blood flows are likewise often assumed to be lognormally or normally distributed without evaluating empirical data for consistency with these forms. In this work, we performed dosimetric extrapolations using physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for dichloromethane (DCM) and chloroform that incorporate uncertainty and variability to determine if the HEDs associated with such extrapolations are approximately lognormal and how they depend on the underlying distribution shapes chosen to represent model parameters. We accounted for uncertainty and variability in PBPK model parameters by randomly drawing their values from a variety of distribution types. We then performed reverse dosimetry to calculate HEDs based on animal points of departure for each set of sampled parameters. Corresponding samples of HEDs were tested to determine the impact of input parameter distributions on their central tendencies, extreme percentiles, and degree of conformance to lognormality. This work demonstrates that the measurable attributes of human variability should be considered more carefully and that generalized assumptions about parameter distribution shapes may lead to inaccurate estimates of extreme percentiles of HEDs.

Toxicology↗

DOE OSTI2024

AutoCheck: Automatically Identifying Variables for Checkpointing by Data Dependency Analysis

Checkpoint/Restart (C/R) has been widely deployed in numerous HPC systems, Clouds, and industrial data centers, which are typically operated by system engineers. Nevertheless, there is no existing approach that helps system engineers without domain expertise and domain scientists without system fault tolerance knowledge identify those critical variables accounted for correct application execution restoration in a failure for C/R. To address this problem, we propose an analytical model and a tool (AutoCheck) that can automatically identify critical variables to checkpoint for C/R. AutoCheck relies on first, analytically tracking and optimizing data dependency between variables and other application execution state, and second, a set of heuristics that identify critical variables for checkpointing from the refined data dependency graph (DDG). AutoCheck allows programmers to pinpoint critical variables to checkpoint quickly within a few minutes. We evaluate AutoCheck on 13 representative HPC benchmarks, demonstrating that AutoCheck can efficiently identify correct critical variables to checkpoint.

HPC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Interactions Between Climate Mean and Variability Drive Future Agroecosystem Vulnerability

ABSTRACT Agriculture is crucial for global food supply and dominates the Earth's land surface. It is unknown, however, how slow but relentless changes in climate mean state, versus random extreme conditions arising from changing variability , will affect agroecosystems' carbon fluxes, energy fluxes, and crop production. We used an advanced weather generator to partition changes in mean climate state versus variability for both temperature and precipitation, producing forcing data to drive factorial‐design simulations of US Midwest agricultural regions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. We found that an increase in temperature mean lowers stored carbon, plant productivity, and crop yield, and tends to convert agroecosystems from a carbon sink to a source, as expected; it also can cause local to regional cooling in the earth system model through its effects on the Bowen Ratio. The combined effect of mean and variability changes on carbon fluxes and pools was nonlinear, that is, greater than each individual case. For instance, gross primary production reduces by 9%, 1%, and 13% due to change in mean temperature, change in temperature variability, and change in both temperature mean and variability, respectively. Overall, the scenario with change in both temperature and precipitation means leads to the largest reduction in carbon fluxes (−16% gross primary production), carbon pools (−35% vegetation carbon), and crop yields (−33% and −22% median reduction in yield for corn and soybean, respectively). By unambiguously parsing the effects of changing climate mean versus variability and quantifying their nonadditive impacts, this study lays a foundation for more robust understanding and prediction of agroecosystems' vulnerability to 21st‐century climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Unified Interpretation of Variability in Precipitation Isotope Ratios

Abstract Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain why the isotope ratios of precipitation vary in space and time and why they correlate with other climate variables like temperature and precipitation. Here, we argue that this behavior is best understood through the lens of radiative transfer, which treats the depletion of atmospheric vapor transport by precipitation as analogous to the attenuation of light by absorption or scattering. Building on earlier work by Siler et al., we introduce a simple model that uses the equations of radiative transfer to approximate the two-dimensional pattern of the oxygen isotope composition of precipitation ( δ p ) from monthly mean hydrologic variables. The model accurately simulates the spatial and seasonal variability in δ p within a state-of-the-art climate model and permits a simple decomposition of δ p variability into contributions from gradients in evaporation and the length scale of vapor transport. Outside the tropics, δ p is mostly controlled by gradients in evaporation, whose dependence on temperature explains the positive correlation between δ p and temperature (i.e., the temperature effect). At low latitudes, δ p is mostly controlled by gradients in the transport length scale, whose inverse relationship with precipitation explains the negative correlation between δ p and precipitation (i.e., the amount effect). This suggests that the temperature and amount effects are both mostly explained by the variability in upstream rainout, but they reflect distinct mechanisms governing rainout at different latitudes. Significance Statement The isotopic composition of precipitation has long been used to make inferences about past climates based on its observed relationship with precipitation in the tropics and with temperature at higher latitudes. These relationships—known as the “amount effect” and “temperature effect,” respectively—have been attributed to many different mechanisms, most of which are thought to operate at either high or low latitudes but not both. Here, we present a unified framework for interpreting the isotope variability that can explain the latitude dependence of the temperature and amount effects despite making no distinction between high and low latitudes. Although our results are generally consistent with certain interpretations of the amount effect, they suggest that the temperature effect is widely misunderstood.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reviews and syntheses: Variable inundation across Earth's terrestrial ecosystems

Abstract. The structure, function, and dynamics of Earth's terrestrial ecosystems are profoundly influenced by how often (frequency) and how long (duration) they are inundated with water. A diverse array of natural and human-engineered systems experience temporally variable inundation whereby they fluctuate between inundated and non-inundated states. Variable inundation spans extreme events to predictable sub-daily cycles. Variably inundated ecosystems (VIEs) include hillslopes, non-perennial streams, wetlands, floodplains, temporary ponds, tidal systems, storm-impacted coastal zones, and human-engineered systems. VIEs are diverse in terms of inundation regimes, water chemistry and flow velocity, soil and sediment properties, vegetation, and many other properties. The spatial and temporal scales of variable inundation are vast, ranging from sub-meter to whole landscapes and from sub-hourly to multi-decadal. The broad range of system types and scales makes it challenging to predict the hydrology, biogeochemistry, ecology, and physical evolution of VIEs. Despite all experiencing the loss and gain of an overlying water column, VIEs are rarely considered together in conceptual, theoretical, modeling, or measurement frameworks and approaches. Studying VIEs together has the potential to generate mechanistic understanding that is transferable across a much broader range of environmental conditions, relative to knowledge generated by studying any one VIE type. We postulate that enhanced transferability will be important for predicting changes in VIE function in response to global change. Here we aim to catalyze cross-VIE science that studies drivers and impacts of variable inundation across Earth's VIEs. To this end, we complement expert mini-reviews of eight major VIE systems with overviews of VIE-relevant methods and challenges associated with scale. We conclude with perspectives on how cross-VIE science can derive transferable understanding via unifying conceptual models in which the impacts of variable inundation are studied across multi-dimensional environmental space.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1974

Study of process variables associated with manufacturing hermetically-sealed nickel-cadmium cells

A two year study of the major process variables associated with the manufacturing process for sealed, nickel-cadmium, areospace cells is summarized. Effort was directed toward identifying the major process variables associated with a manufacturing process, experimentally assessing each variable's effect, and imposing the necessary changes (optimization) and controls for the critical process variables to improve results and uniformity. A critical process variable associated with the sintered nickel plaque manufacturing process was identified as the manual forming operation. Critical process variables identified with the positive electrode impregnation/polarization process were impregnation solution temperature, free acid content, vacuum impregnation, and sintered plaque strength. Positive and negative electrodes were identified as a major source of carbonate contamination in sealed cells.

Miller, L.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Method of discrete modeling and its application to estimation of TF30 engine variables

A method of discrete modeling is presented that effectively isolates steady state model accuracy from dynamic model accuracy. The steady state model may be generated from the engine design equations with any desired degree of accuracy. The dynamic model is generated by applying a step disturbance of a manipulated variable to an open loop engine simulation. The sampled response of the variable is combined with the steady state model's response to form a set of weighting factors. These weighting factors are then used to weight past values of the manipulated variable, thus forming the dynamic model. The method is used to estimate various TF30-P-3 engine variables. A dynamic trim function is developed to compensate for the dynamic nonlinearities of the variables as well as for inaccuracies in dynamic definition. The trim function is shown to be realted to the square root of the sum of the squares of the weighting factors obtained at various engine operating conditions. Finally, the estimation of variables without dynamic modeling is discussed.

Arpasi, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Characteristics of IR variable stars as observed from orbit

A selection of infrared variable stars was studied at wavelength 2.7 microns during 1971-1975 with data from U.S. Air Force satellites. Stars observed in this program are classified as long-period variable stars, semiregular variables, and irregular variables and are among the strongest stellar sources at this wavelength. In addition, a few new, as yet unclassified variable stars were identified during the course of the investigation. Time scales of reproducible variations range from a few weeks to a few years, and amplitudes of variation are as large as a factor of three for stars with periods of order one year. The minimum infrared flux density of a long-period star repeats accurately from one cycle to the next, whereas the maximum flux density was found to be unstable. The correlation of 2.7 micron and radio emission line data from one, well-studied long-period variable is consistent with the hypothesis that the H2O and OH circumstellar masers are saturated, if pumped by the stellar infrared flux near 2.7 microns.

Maran, S. P.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Research related to variable sweep aircraft development

Development in high speed, variable sweep aircraft research is reviewed. The 1946 Langley wind tunnel studies related to variable oblique and variable sweep wings and results from the X-5 and the XF1OF variable sweep aircraft are discussed. A joint program with the British, evaluation of the British "Swallow", development of the outboard pivot wing/aft tail configuration concept by Langley, and the applied research program that followed and which provided the technology for the current, variable sweep military aircraft is outlined. The relative state of variable sweep as a design option is also covered.

Polhamus, E. C.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Discrete-continuous variable structural synthesis using dual methods

Approximation concepts and dual methods are extended to solve structural synthesis problems involving a mix of discrete and continuous sizing type of design variables. Pure discrete and pure continuous variable problems can be handled as special cases. The basic mathematical programming statement of the structural synthesis problem is converted into a sequence of explicit approximate primal problems of separable form. These problems are solved by constructing continuous explicit dual functions, which are maximized subject to simple nonnegativity constraints on the dual variables. A newly devised gradient projection type of algorithm called DUAL 1, which includes special features for handling dual function gradient discontinuities that arise from the discrete primal variables, is used to find the solution of each dual problem. Computational implementation is accomplished by incorporating the DUAL 1 algorithm into the ACCESS 3 program as a new optimizer option. The power of the method set forth is demonstrated by presenting numerical results for several example problems, including a pure discrete variable treatment of a metallic swept wing and a mixed discrete-continuous variable solution for a thin delta wing with fiber composite skins.

Schmit, L. A.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Effects of variables upon pyrotechnically induced shock response spectra

Throughout the aerospace industry, large variations of 50 percent (6 dB) or more are continually noted for linear shaped charge (LSC) generated shock response spectra (SRS) from flight data (from the exact same location on different flights) and from plate tests (side by side measurements on the same test). A research program was developed to investigate causes of these large SRS variations. A series of ball drop calibration tests to verify calibration of accelerometers and a series of plate tests to investigate charge and assembly variables were performed. The resulting data were analyzed to determine if and to what degree manufacturing and assembly variables, distance from the shock source, data acquisition instrumentation, and shock energy propagation affect the SRS. LSC variables consisted of coreload, standoff, and apex angle. The assembly variable was the torque on the LSC holder. Other variables were distance from source of accelerometers, accelerometer mounting methods, and joint effects. Results indicated that LSC variables did not affect SRS as long as the plate was severed. Accelerometers mounted on mounting blocks showed significantly lower levels above 5000 Hz. Lap joints did not affect SRS levels. The test plate was mounted in an almost free-free state; therefore, distance from the source did not affect the SRS. Several varieties and brands of accelerometers were used, and all but one demonstrated very large variations in SRS.

Smith, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Variability of earth-emitted radiation from one year of Nimbus-6 ERB data

Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) measurements from the Nimbus-6 ERB wide field-of-view instrument are used to study daytime and nighttime radiation variability on a 15 deg regional, zonal, and global scale. An analysis of components of variance is used to determine how much of the total variability is due to between-region and within-region variance. Most of the analysis is on July and January data from one year of Nimbus-6 ERB. Different geographical scales are considered: regions within latitude zones and latitude zones within hemispheres. Results show that much of the variability is spatial, peaks in the tropics and subtropics, and is concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere. Daytime variability is generally larger than nighttime variability for July but not for January. Variance in OLR in the tropics and subtropics is largely a function of cloud variability.

Bess, T. D.↗

NASA NTRS1987

A variable geometry combustor for broadened properties fuels

A program was conducted to design and develop a variable geometry combustor, sized for the cycle and envelope of a large commercial turbofan engine. The combustor uses a variable area swirl cup to control stoichiometry in the primary combustion zone. Potential advantages of this design include improved capability to burn non-standard fuels, short system length, and increased operating temperature range for advanced high performance engine cycles. After considerable development, key program emissons and performance goals were met with the variable geometry combustor. Primary development efforts were to evolve improved variable swirl cup configurations. In particular, air leakage through the variable area swirl cup had a strong effect on low power emissions and performance, while smoke level at high power was affected by features for improved mixing of the fuel and swirler air flow. Additional design and development is still needed to evolve a practical variable geometry combustor.

Dodds, W. J.↗