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DOE OSTI2022

Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Analysis of U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle-Fuel Pathways: A Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment of Current (2020) and Future (2030-2035) Technologies

This study provides a comprehensive life cycle analysis (LCA), or cradle-to-grave (C2G) analysis, of the cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of a variety of vehicle-fuel pathways, the levelized cost of driving (LCD) and cost of avoided GHG emissions. The C2G analysis assesses light duty midsize sedans and small sport utility vehicles (SUVs) across a variety of vehicle-fuel technology pathways, including conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flexible hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs) with varying vehicle ranges, and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). Coming at a timely manner, given the marked increase, since 2016, in climate aspirations announced by governmental institutions and private firms both in the US and across the globe, this analysis builds on a previous comprehensive life cycle analysis, updating that study’s 2016 assumptions and methods (Elgowainy et al. 2016). These updates incorporate technological advances and changes in energy supply sources that have emerged during the intervening period. Utilizing these updated assumptions and methods, alongside more recent data, the present report accounts for a broader range of vehicle technologies and considers both current (2020) and expected future (2030-2035) conditions. Reflecting increased research interest in synthetic liquid fuels produced using renewable low-carbon electricity and CO 2 sources, electro-fuels (a.k.a. e-fuels) were added to the potential future fuel technologies that are evaluated. This study takes a “pathway” approach rather than a “scenario” approach; hence distinct, technically feasible, routes or sequences of processes starting with one or more feedstocks and ending with an intermediate or a final product are examined, not necessarily constrained by practical feedstock, economic, policy, and market considerations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Analysis of U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle-Fuel Pathways: A Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment of Current (2020) and Future (2030-2035) Technologies

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Designing Dynamic Wireless Power Transfer Corridors for Heavy Duty Battery Electric Commercial Freight Vehicles

The use of wireless power transfer systems, consisting of inductive electrical coils on the vehicle and the power source may be designed for dynamic operations where the vehicle will absorb energy at highway speeds from transmitting coils in the road. This has the potential to reduce the onboard energy storage requirements for vehicles while enabling significantly longer missions. This paper presents an approach to architecting a dynamic wireless power transfer corridor for heavy duty battery electric commercial freight vehicles. By considering the interplay of roadway power capacity, roadway and vehicle coil coverage, seasonal road traffic loading, freight vehicle class and weight, vehicle mobility energy requirements, on-board battery chemistry, non-electrified roadway vehicle range requirements, grid capacity, substation locations, and variations in electricity costs, we minimize the vehicle TCO by architecting the electrified roadway and the vehicle battery simultaneously. The idea optimizes battery size and chemistry so that the depth of discharge between recharge events and expected life are balanced, thus fully utilizing the energy available throughout the course of the battery system's life. The approach is illustrated by applying it to the I-75 freight corridor, where the framework developed may be expanded and applied to a larger interstate system, expanded regional corridor, or other transportation network.

Sujan, Vivek↗

DOE OSTI2024

Swarm path planner system for vehicles

A system for determining optimal paths without collision through a travel volume for a swarm of vehicles is disclosed. The system determines a travel path for the swarm leader vehicle using a minimal cost path derived from various measures of environmental cost for avoiding objects in traveling from leader location to target location. The system also determines, for each empty neighbor location of each follower vehicle, relational costs for follower vehicle travel relative to leader vehicle travel. The various measures of relational cost seek to maintain a prescribed positional relationship between each follower vehicle and the leader vehicle given the leader vehicle travel path. Based on various measures of environmental and relational cost, the system determines the best travel path for the each follower vehicle relative to the leader vehicle.

Paglieroni, David W.↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Mileage Courier Fleet Vehicle On-Road Logger Data

This dataset describes the performance and fuel efficiency of AVTA test vehicles operating in commercial courier fleets the Phoenix, AZ metro area between 2010 and 2016. Aftermarket data loggers were installed in two to four vehicles of each of 30+ distinct year/make/models (see reference ["INL Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity: On-road Logger and Laboratory Battery Pack Testing Vehicle List"](https://avt.inl.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/reports/DatasetVehicleList.pdf) for full list of vehicles). Loggers recorded vehicle operation as they were driven up to 160,000 miles in up to three years of fleet testing. Parameters were logged at 1-second intervals, including - vehicle speed, - engine and/or electric motor speed, - fuel and/or electricity consumption, and - ambient temperature. This dataset includes both raw second-by-second data and trip-level metrics. This dataset is shared by API; a small sample of the vehicle and logger data has been extracted and is also available for download.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modifying Network Guided Vehicle for Repeatable EcoCAR ACC Energy Testing

The newest iteration of the Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Vehicle Technology Competitions is the EcoCAR Mobility Challenge. In this paper, ANL and HORIBA MIRA collaborate to propose and pilot a test method that enables controlled, repeatable track-based energy consumption testing of semi-autonomous features. The testing was performed at MIRA’s proving ground facility in Nuneaton, UK, using their Network Guided Vehicle (NGV) connectivity and automation test platform. The NGV served as a repeatable lead vehicle following prescribed drive traces around two different track circuits while the host vehicle under test, a Honda Civic with full speed range Adaptive Cruise Control, followed behind. Over the course of a two day test, multiple iterations of certification and custom EPA drive traces were performed on track, demonstrating the viability of a two vehicle energy test. Results were analyzed to assess NGV lead vehicle performance in following the prescribed cycle using SAE J2951 standard calculations in an effort to quantify how repeatably and accurately the lead vehicle followed the trace. Host vehicle energy consumption was assessed using both vehicle CAN bus monitoring and an on-board fuel flow meter.

ACC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comprehensive Assessment of On-And Off-Board Vehicle-To-Grid Technology Performance and Impacts on Battery and the Grid

This project defined, developed, and tested the open standards-based requirements, engineering design and system integration of on and off-vehicle Vehicle-to-Grid technologies both on the grid and on the PEV, to assess their effectiveness in implementing the use cases that create value for the grid, which in turn, can be passed on to the ratepayers and the PEV owners. The project comprised of three key categories of work and four key sub-areas of work. The three key categories were: On-Vehicle V2G, Off-Vehicle V2G, and impact of V2G operation on the battery capacity degradation. The four key sub-areas of work under each of these categories were: defining requirements, implementing the technology, performing system integration testing, and estimating the value of each of the grid services under specific assumptions, on a per-vehicle and on an aggregated basis. The technical implementation demonstrated the validity of standards-based approach to grid integration that led to interoperability, in addition to assessing the operational details with grid constraints imposed at the transformer level. The technology implementation also identified the subtle gaps in the standards definition to close the feedback loop on the accuracy of the standards as written, which are being implemented as revisions to the appropriate protocols. The battery impacts assessment developed a test cycle that the batteries from a real PHEV were subjected to for both the mobility-only and mobility with V2G specific energy cycling. While the battery impact results show a clear incremental degradation in response to additional throughput for V2G application purposes, the amount of additional kWh that can be made available without exceeding the end-of-life capacity definition of the battery at its 10-year warranty period was found to be significant. Given that the PEV battery being exercised during testing was a PHEV battery (smaller energy capacity), and 44% of its usable energy (i.e., SOC) was utilized daily for V2G applications, the EVs with much larger batteries will fare much better, either in terms of extracting more value in terms of incremental kWh for V2G, or in terms of relative incremental degradation of the capacity through the battery lifespan. Further, this battery was the second-generation Lithium-Ion chemistry circa 2015, which is at least two generations ago. Continual improvements in electrochemistry and manufacturing techniques as well as on-board capacity will enable the future batteries to provide even more energy for non-mobility-related services. Finally, the valuation of V2G energy services at the premise, distribution, and the ISO/market level was carried out for both the on-vehicle and off-vehicle cases, to understand both the GHG mitigation and operational efficiency improvements in quantitative terms. The analysis indicates that between $\$400$ and $\$1400$ per year of total value to the grid can be realized. When netted of costs to implement V2G either on or off-vehicle, the net value is available to be shared between the ratepayers and the EV owners. Over the life of the EV, therefore, this value becomes significant and can easily provide both ratepayer and EV owner benefits more than the cost of the equipment, either on or off-board, in addition to providing GHG mitigation benefits both on the grid and on the mobility sides. For these benefits to accrue, the key learnings from both the on- and off-vehicle V2G parts of the project indicate the need for at-scale demonstrations through involvement of real EV owners to validate both the technical feasibility, interoperability, as well as real grid benefits by performing extensive data collection and analysis. This will help inform the grid planners, the program designs, and tariff designers, as well as automotive and equipment manufacturers how best to create their products to maximize grid, ratepayer, and EV owner value.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying policy gaps for achieving the net-zero GHG emissions target in the U.S. light-duty vehicle market through electrification

The U.S. light-duty vehicle (LDV) industry, a major greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting sector, is embracing decarbonization. Considering only electrification pathways, this study uses publicly-available tools – MA3T and VISION on vehicle market penetration, fleet accounting and life-cycle analysis to quantify the policy gaps for LDVs to achieve the net-zero GHG emissions target in nine vehicle penetration cases under two electricity mix scenarios, including the U.S. administration's decarbonization strategy – 100% clean electricity by 2035. The MA3T model is a multinomial discrete choice model for market share projection by vehicle technology, and the VISION is a vehicle stocks and GHG emissions projection model by using vehicle and travel characteristics. This study projects the impacts of technology and policy enforcement on shaping the dynamics and decarbonization of the LDV market. Additionally, achieving the expected improvement of battery technology and charging infrastructure is critical but can only reduce the 2050 GHG emissions to 48–54% of the 2020 level under the electricity renewable mix scenario. It is almost impossible to achieve a 100% battery electric vehicle stock by 2050 and the 2050 net-zero target in the LDV industry unless ban of internal combustion engine technology is implemented starting in 2035 and under the 2035 100% clean electricity scenario. These extreme conditions also sacrifice most from the consumer welfare perspective. A greater policy forcing intensity accelerates plug-in electric vehicle penetration, while with declining marginal effect and reduced consumer welfare. Among the investigated policy scenarios, the policy forcing intensity equivalent to a fuel tax of $1–2 per gasoline gallon reduces the most GHG emissions while keeping a positive consumer welfare.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Automated Electric Vehicle Fleet Operations for On-Demand Service: Challenges and Opportunities

Automated/autonomous vehicle fleet operations within automated mobility districts have been studied over the past five years by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, a US Department of Energy federally funded research and development center. This paper extends the analysis in this third phase of research underway to include considerations for electric vehicle operations and charging within a fleet of right-sized automated vehicles providing on-demand public mobility services. The current focus of research is on the operational complexities and associated challenges for automated/autonomous vehicles employing electric drivetrains and the resultant need for an efficient battery charging process while vehicles are operating in an "on-demand" mode of service. The blossoming of microtransit with shared-ride and point-to-point dispatching of each vehicle instills complex operations, with multiple mobility-on-demand transit operating sites being deployed, studied, and analyzed across North America. As a starting point, the authors' experience over the past 20 years with the analysis of automated transit network systems operating on and within dedicated and protected transitways provides initial insights into the system-level operational implications for maintaining a sufficient battery charge for a fleet of automated vehicles. Lessons learned through the prior analyses of automated transit network systems operating in on-demand service are identified, along with the capital cost implications for the requisite operating fleet size and charging station infrastructure for various approaches. These costs are summarized in juxtaposition with the benefits of realizing the higher goals of reducing environmental impacts and energy use within automated mobility districts as automated/autonomous vehicle technology matures. Finally, the discussion addresses key aspects of battery-electric propulsion for managed fleets in fully automated operation that will be studied as the third phase of research continues.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

High-Mileage Courier Fleet Vehicle On-road Logger Data

This dataset describes the performance and fuel efficiency of AVTA test vehicles operating in commercial courier fleets the Phoenix, AZ metro area between 2010 and 2016. Aftermarket data loggers were installed in two to four vehicles of each of 30+ distinct year/make/models (see reference ["INL Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity: On-road Logger and Laboratory Battery Pack Testing Vehicle List"](https://avt.inl.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/reports/DatasetVehicleList.pdf) for full list of vehicles). Loggers recorded vehicle operation as they were driven up to 160,000 miles in up to three years of fleet testing. Parameters were logged at 1-second intervals, including - vehicle speed, - engine and/or electric motor speed, - fuel and/or electricity consumption, and - ambient temperature. This dataset includes both raw second-by-second data and trip-level metrics. (This dataset will be shared by API; a small sample of the vehicle and logger data has been extracted and is available for download while the API is being developed.)

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

The effect of food vehicles on in vitro performance of pantoprazole sodium delayed release sprinkle formulation

Certain patient populations, including children, the elderly or people with dysphagia, find swallowing whole medications such as tablets and capsules difficult. To facilitate oral administration of drugs in such patients, a common practice is to sprinkle the drug products (e.g., usually after crushing the tablet or opening the capsule) on food vehicles before consumption which improves swallowability. Thus, evaluation of the impact of food vehicles on the potency and stability of the administered drug product is important. Here, the aim of the current study was to evaluate the physicochemical properties (viscosity, pH, and water content) of common food vehicles used for sprinkle administration (e.g., apple juice, applesauce, pudding, yogurt, and milk) and their impacts on the in vitro performance (i.e., dissolution) of pantoprazole sodium delayed release (DR) drug products. The food vehicles evaluated exhibited marked difference in viscosity, pH and water content. Notably, the pH of the food as well as the interaction between food vehicle pH and drug-food contact time were the most significant factors affecting the in vitro performance of pantoprazole sodium DR granules. For example, the dissolution of pantoprazole sodium DR granules sprinkled on food vehicles of low pH (e.g., apple juice or applesauce) for short durations remained unchanged compared with the control group (i.e., without mixing with food vehicles). However, use of high pH food vehicles (e.g., milk) with prolonged contact time (e.g., 2h) resulted in accelerated pantoprazole release, drug degradation and loss of potency. Overall, a thorough assessment of physicochemical properties of food vehicles and formulation characteristics are a necessary part of the development of sprinkle formulations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Well‐to‐wheels analysis of greenhouse gas emissions for passenger vehicles in Middle East and North Africa

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are widely considered a pathway to achieve low carbon mobility. BEVs emit zero emissions from the tailpipe, but their life cycle carbon reduction compared to gasoline vehicles varies based on primary energy sources, electricity generation, and use efficiency. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is an area rich in fossil fuels, meriting a detailed comparison between the emissions from BEV and other powertrains. We developed a MENA‐specific life cycle model that estimates well‐to‐wheel (WTW) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from passenger transport with internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug‐in hybrid electric vehicles, and BEVs. MENA's average WTW GHG emissions for all supply chain steps including combustion emissions from vehicle operation are 767 g/kWh and 84 g CO 2 eq/MJ for electricity and gasoline, respectively, but are highly variable due to heterogeneity in upstream supply chains. The use of hybrid gasoline ICEVs provides the largest emission reduction opportunity for existing vehicle fleets in 9 of the 16 MENA countries. For these nine countries, replacing gasoline ICEVs with HEVs could, on average, reduce country‐level life cycle GHG emissions by 47%. There is a similar emission reduction opportunity for 14 of the 16 MENA countries when normalizing vehicle efficiencies irrespective of the powertrain shares and other trends in existing vehicle fleets. Future scenario analysis shows that BEVs would have the lowest WTW GHG emissions among all powertrains in most MENA countries only if significantly reduced electricity transmission losses and cleaner grid mix are realized, although a high cost of infrastructure developments is expected.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Method of Optimal Control for Class 8 Vehicle Platoons Over Hilly Terrain

This work develops and implements an NMPC control system to facilitate fuel-optimal platooning of Class 8 vehicles over challenging terrain. Prior research has shown that Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC), which allows multiple Class 8 vehicles to follow in close succession, can save between 3 and 8% in overall fuel consumption on flat terrain. However, on more challenging terrain, e.g. rolling hills, platooning vehicles can experience diminished fuel savings, and, in some cases, an increase in fuel consumption relative to individual vehicle operation. This research explores the use of Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) with predefined route grade profiles to allow platooning vehicles to generate an optimal velocity trajectory with respect to fuel consumption. In order to successfully implement the NMPC system, a model relating vehicle velocity to fuel consumption was generated and validated using experimental data. Additionally, the predefined route grade profiles were created by using the vehicle's GPS velocity over the desired terrain. The real-time NMPC system was then implemented on a two-truck platoon operating over challenging terrain, with a reference vehicle running individually. The results from NMPC platooning are compared against fuel results from a classical proportional-integral-derivative (PID) headway control method. Furthermore, this comparison yields the comparative fuel savings and energy efficiency benefit of NMPC system. In the final analysis, significant fuel savings of greater than 14 and 20% were seen for the lead and following vehicles relative to their respective traditional cruise control and platooning architectures.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) Site Assessment Report for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Chena Site Near Fairbanks, Alaska

This report presents an analysis of the requirements for charging station installation and electric vehicle operation at the US Army Corps of Engineers - Chena Site, located in a cold weather climate in the Fairbanks North Star Borough, AK. The report includes findings from a site visit, and a detailed electric vehicle (EV) charging site plan with cost estimates. Cost for three 50-ampere pedestal chargers located on the edge of the existing parking lot is estimated at $\$$53,100, and the cost of three 80-ampere chargers is estimated at $\$$89,400. The authors did not assess the cost of a heated garage. The USACE Chena site reaches extreme cold temperatures of -40 Degrees Celsius (-40 Degrees Fahrenheit) and below in a typical winter, often for days on end. Considerations of operating EVs as well as electrical vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) at this site can be applicable to other cold or extremely cold locations. Interviews with EV users in cold climates and a literature review indicated that EVs operate well but have significantly decreased range compared to 21 Degrees Celsius (70 Degrees Fahrenheit) operations. Some strategies such as prewarming the vehicle while it is plugged in and using heated seats and steering wheel instead of cabin heat, can improve cold weather performance. Storing the EV in a garage would mean the battery and cabin are automatically preheated, the battery would not age as rapidly as when the vehicle is stored outside, and problems with charging the vehicle are less likely. Lowest temperate-rated Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE), as electric vehicle chargers are known as, are rated to -40 Degrees Celsius (-40 Degrees Fahrenheit), and sometimes malfunction. No EVSE is rated to the temperatures that USACE Chena site experienced for more than a week in winter 2023-4, of -50 Degrees Celsius (-45 Degrees Fahrenheit) and which are typical for the area. If reliability is a must, entities may want to consider a heated garage to minimize potential problems with charging equipment. There is a companion technical report to this titled "Electric Vehicle and Charging Infrastructure Assessment in Cold-Weather Climates: A Case Study of Fairbanks, Alaska" that examines the data on EV and EVSE cold-weather functionality in more detail. (Esparza, Truffer Moudra, and Hodge 2024).

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of a Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Integration and Implementation (HEVII) Tool

As demand for consumer electric vehicles (EVs) has drastically increased in recent years, manufacturers have been working to bring heavy-duty EVs to market to compete with Class 6-8 diesel-powered trucks. Many high-profile companies have committed to begin electrifying their fleet operations, but have yet to implement EVs at scale due to their limited range, long charging times, sparse charging infrastructure, and lack of data from in-use operation. Thus far, EVs have been disproportionately implemented by larger fleets with more resources. To aid fleet operators, it is imperative to develop tools to evaluate the electrification potential of heavy-duty fleets. However, commercially available tools, designed mostly for light-duty vehicles, are inadequate for making electrification recommendations tailored to a fleet of heavy-duty vehicles. The main challenge is that light-duty tools do not estimate real-time vehicle mass, a factor that has a disproportionate impact on the energy consumption of large commercial vehicles. The Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Integration and Implementation (HEVII) tool advances the state of the art in evaluating electrification potential and infrastructure requirements for fleets of commercial vehicles. In this work, the HEVII tool is demonstrated with non-uniformly sampled telematics data from an existing fleet to assess the suitability for electrification of each individual vehicle, determine optimal locations for charging infrastructure to support a fleet of EVs and analyze associated costs. Payload mass is predicted using sparse ground-truth data for all input drive cycles and an initial data analysis is conducted to assess the characteristics driving behaviors and energy consumption of the fleet using an adaptable vehicle model. Battery size requirements are determined by applying a novel charger placement algorithm to maximize routes that are viable for EVs and balance time delays with infrastructure development costs. This work details and demonstrates the different aspects of the HEVII tool, presenting preliminary results from an example use case.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Substitution or Shared Utilization? Intrahousehold Vehicle Use in Mixed-Powertrain Households

While previous research has focused heavily on understanding the factors deriving alternative fuel vehicle adoption rates, there remains a significant gap in understanding how households distribute mileage across different powertrains. This study utilizes data from the 2022 Next Generation National Household Travel Survey to investigate vehicle miles traveled within a sample of 150 plug-in electric vehicle (PEV)-owning households (in which at least one battery electric vehicle is present), characterizing how different powertrains are integrated into daily mobility. Leveraging a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) framework the study jointly models the utilization of PEVs, hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) while accounting for household-level substitution effects. The results provide evidence of an asymmetric substitution effect. In households with mixed-powertrain configurations, the ICEV captures a substantially higher share of household miles (compared with the PEV), acting as a utility sponge. Conversely, the model identifies specific socioeconomic and geographic cohorts that prioritize PEV as the primary household workhorse, indicating a systematic sorting effect. Although the sample size limits broader generalizability, these findings suggest that PEVs are used for frequent, specific routine-intensive roles, whereas the ICEV remains a specialized utility vehicle. These insights highlight distinct intrahousehold vehicle use behaviors that are often obscured by aggregate fleetwide statistics.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Demand-Side Grid (dsgrid) TEMPO Light-Duty Vehicle Charging Profiles v2022

Simulated hourly electric vehicle charging profiles for light-duty household passenger vehicles in the contiguous United States, 2018-2050. Profiles are differentiated by scenario, county, household and vehicle types, and charging type. Data was produced in 2022 using the Transportation Energy & Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) model and published in demand-side grid (dsgrid) toolkit format. Data are available for three adoption scenarios: "AEO Reference Case", which is aligned with the U.S. EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2018 (linked below), "EFS High Electrification", which is aligned with the High Electrification scenario of the Electrification Futures Study (linked below), and "All EV Sales by 2035", which assumes that average passenger light-duty EV sales reach 50% in 2030 and 100% in 2035. The charging shapes are derived from two key assumptions of which data users should be aware: "ubiquitous charger access", meaning that drivers of vehicles are assumed to have access to a charger whenever a trip is not in progress, and "immediate charging", meaning that immediately after trip completion, vehicles are plugged in and charge until they are either fully recharged or taken on another trip. These assumptions result in a bounding case in which vehicles' state of charge is maximized at all times. This bounding case would minimize range anxiety, but is unrealistic from the point of view of both electric vehicle service equipment (EVSE) (i.e., charger) access, and plug-in behavior as it can result in dozens of charging sessions per week for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) that in reality are often only plugged in a few times per week.

Array↗

DOE OSTI2021

Energy and Emission Prediction for Mixed-Vehicle Transit Fleets Using Multi-task and Inductive Transfer Learning

Public transit agencies are focused on making their fixed-line bus systems more energy efficient by introducing electric (EV) and hybrid (HV) vehicles to their fleets. However, because of the high upfront cost of these vehicles, most agencies are tasked with managing a mixed-fleet of internal combustion vehicles (ICEVs), EVs, and HVs. In managing mixed-fleets, agencies require accurate predictions of energy use for optimizing the assignment of vehicles to transit routes, scheduling charging, and ensuring that emission standards are met. The current state-of-the-art is to develop separate neural network models to predict energy consumption for each vehicle class. Although different vehicle classes’ energy consumption depends on a varied set of covariates, we hypothesize that there are broader generalizable patterns that govern energy consumption and emissions. In this paper, we seek to extract these patterns to aid learning to address two problems faced by transit agencies. First, in the case of a transit agency which operates many ICEVs, HVs, and EVs, we use multi-task learning (MTL) to improve accuracy of forecasting energy consumption. Second, in the case where there is a significant variation in vehicles in each category, we use inductive transfer learning (ITL) to improve predictive accuracy for vehicle class models with insufficient data. As this work is to be deployed by our partner agency, we also provide an online pipeline for joining the various sensor streams for fixed-line transit energy prediction. Here, we find that our approach outperforms vehicle-specific baselines in both the MTL and ITL settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗