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At least 163 records · Page 9

Surface warming in global cities is substantially more rapid than in rural background areas

Warming trends in cities are influenced both by large-scale climate processes and by local-scale urbanization. However, little is known about how surface warming trends of global cities differ from those characterized by weather observations in the rural background. Here, through statistical analyses of satellite land surface temperatures (2002 to 2021), we find that the mean surface warming trend is 0.50 ± 0.20 K·decade –1 (mean ± one S.D.) in the urban core of 2000-plus city clusters worldwide, and is 29% greater than the trend for the rural background. On average, background climate change is the largest contributor explaining 0.30 ± 0.11 K·decade –1 of the urban surface warming. In city clusters in China and India, however, more than 0.23 K·decade –1 of the mean trend is attributed to urban expansion. We also find evidence of urban greening in European cities, which offsets 0.13 ± 0.034 K·decade –1 of background surface warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Abrupt reduction in shipping emission as an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock produces substantial radiative warming

Abstract Human activities affect the Earth’s climate through modifying the composition of the atmosphere, which then creates radiative forcing that drives climate change. The warming effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases has been partially balanced by the cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols. In 2020, fuel regulations abruptly reduced the emission of sulfur dioxide from international shipping by about 80% and created an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock with global impact. Here we estimate the regulation leads to a radiative forcing of $$+0.2\pm 0.11$$ + 0.2 ± 0.11 Wm −2 averaged over the global ocean. The amount of radiative forcing could lead to a doubling (or more) of the warming rate in the 2020 s compared with the rate since 1980 with strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The warming effect is consistent with the recent observed strong warming in 2023 and expected to make the 2020 s anomalously warm. The forcing is equivalent in magnitude to 80% of the measured increase in planetary heat uptake since 2020. The radiative forcing also has strong hemispheric contrast, which has important implications for precipitation pattern changes. Our result suggests marine cloud brightening may be a viable geoengineering method in temporarily cooling the climate that has its unique challenges due to inherent spatiotemporal heterogeneity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Changes in sea ice concentration explain half of the winter warming of the Arctic surface

Arctic winter warming is stronger than in summer, but its driving mechanisms remain debated, particularly the roles of local processes, like sea-ice loss, versus remote factors, like atmospheric heat transport. Here we introduce a novel decomposition framework that characterizes Arctic warming as a function of historical atmospheric circulation, sea ice concentration, and carbon dioxide changes using observational and reanalysis data. We show that sea ice changes explain about 55% of the winter Arctic near-surface temperature trend during 1959–2015, after removing the effects directly connected to atmospheric circulation. Dynamically induced warming accounts for about 20% at surface and up to 80% in mid-troposphere. The remaining ~25% is attributed to the increase in carbon dioxide, though it also indirectly affects sea-ice loss and circulation-related warming. These findings highlight the dominant role of sea ice loss and change in atmospheric dynamics in affecting the historical Arctic winter warming.

Arctic Sea Ice change↗

Solar geoengineering may not prevent strong warming from direct effects of CO2 on stratocumulus cloud cover

Discussions of countering global warming with solar geoengineering assume that warming owing to rising greenhouse gas concentrations can be compensated by artificially reducing the amount of sunlight Earth absorbs. However, here we show that solar geoengineering may not be fail-safe to prevent global warming because CO2 has direct effects on cloud cover: it reduces cloud cover by modulating the longwave radiative cooling within the atmosphere, which is not mitigated by solar geoengineering. We use high-resolution simulations of clouds to show that under a sustained solar geoengineering scenario, the direct CO2 effects may lead to loss of subtropical stratocumulus clouds at concentrations above 1700~ppm. Because stratocumulus clouds cover large swaths of subtropical oceans and cool Earth by reflecting incident sunlight, their loss would trigger strong (about 5 K) global warming. Thus, the results highlight that, at least in an extreme scenario, solar geoengineering may be incapable to counter greenhouse-gas driven global warming.

Schneider, Tapio↗

Natural variability contributes to model–satellite differences in tropical tropospheric warming

Significance Climate models have, on average, simulated substantially more tropical tropospheric warming than satellite data, with few simulations matching observations. It has been suggested that this discrepancy arises because climate models are overly sensitive to greenhouse gas increases. Tropical tropospheric temperature trends from a large ensemble of simulations performed with a single climate model span a wide range that is solely due to natural climate variability. A subset of these simulations have warming rates in accord with satellite observations. Simulations with diminished tropical tropospheric warming due to climate variability exhibit characteristic patterns of surface warming that are similar to the observed record. Our results indicate that multidecadal variability can explain current model–observational differences in the rate of tropical tropospheric warming.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Early warm-season mesoscale convective systems dominate soil moisture–precipitation feedback for summer rainfall in central United States

Land–atmosphere interactions play an important role in summer rainfall in the central United States, where mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) contribute to 30 to 70% of warm-season precipitation. Previous studies of soil moisture–precipitation feedbacks focused on the total precipitation, confounding the distinct roles of rainfall from different convective storm types. Here, we investigate the soil moisture–precipitation feedbacks associated with MCS and non-MCS rainfall and their surface hydrological footprints using a unique combination of these rainfall events in observations and land surface simulations with numerical tracers to quantify soil moisture sourced from MCS and non-MCS rainfall. Furthermore, we find that early warm-season (April to June) MCS rainfall, which is characterized by higher intensity and larger area per storm, produces coherent mesoscale spatial heterogeneity in soil moisture that is important for initiating summer (July) afternoon rainfall dominated by non-MCS events. On the other hand, soil moisture sourced from both early warm-season MCS and non-MCS rainfall contributes to lower-level atmospheric moistening favorable for upscale growth of MCSs at night. However, soil moisture sourced from MCS rainfall contributes to July MCS rainfall with a longer lead time because with higher intensity, MCS rainfall percolates into deeper soil that has a longer memory. Therefore, early warm-season MCS rainfall dominates soil moisture–precipitation feedback. This motivates future studies to examine the contribution of early warm-season MCS rainfall and associated soil moisture anomalies to predictability of summer rainfall in the major agricultural region of the central United States and other continental regions frequented by MCSs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Warming is Associated With More Encoded Antimicrobial Resistance Genes and Transcriptions Within Five Drug Classes in Soil Bacteria: A Case Study and Synthesis

ABSTRACT The effect of warming on anti‐microbial resistance (AMR) genes in the environment has critical implications for public health but is little studied. We collected published soil bacterial genomes from the BV‐BRC database and tested the correlation between reported optimal growth temperature and the number of encoded AMR genes. Furthermore, we tested the relationship between temperature and AMR gene transcription in a natural ecosystem by analysing soil transcriptomes from a warming manipulation experiment in an Alaskan boreal forest. We hypothesised that there is a positive relationship between warming and AMR prevalence in gene content in bacterial genomes and transcriptomic sequences, and that this effect would vary by drug class. Regarding the bacterial genomes, we found a positive relationship between the fraction of encoded AMR genes and the reported optimal temperature of soil bacteria. The drug classes tetracycline and lincosamide/macrolide/streptogramin had the strongest positive relationship with reported optimal temperature. For the case study in a natural ecosystem, we found 61 significantly upregulated AMR gene‐associated transcripts spanning eight drug classes in warmed plots. In the Alaskan soil samples, we found that warming elicited the strongest positive effect on transcripts targeting lincosamide/streptogramin, beta‐lactam and phenicol/quinolone antibiotics. Overall, higher temperatures were linked to AMR gene prevalence.

Hacopian, Melanie T. [Department of Ecology and Ev↗

Experimental warming across a tropical forest canopy height gradient reveals minimal photosynthetic and respiratory acclimation

Abstract Tropical forest canopies cycle vast amounts of carbon, yet we still have a limited understanding of how these critical ecosystems will respond to climate warming. We implemented in situ leaf‐level + 3°C experimental warming from the understory to the upper canopy of two Puerto Rican tropical tree species, Guarea guidonia and Ocotea sintenisii . After approximately 1 month of continuous warming, we assessed adjustments in photosynthesis, chlorophyll fluorescence, stomatal conductance, leaf traits and foliar respiration. Warming did not alter net photosynthetic temperature response for either species; however, the optimum temperature of Ocotea understory leaf photosynthetic electron transport shifted upward. There was no Ocotea respiratory treatment effect, while Guarea respiratory temperature sensitivity ( Q 10 ) was down‐regulated in heated leaves. The optimum temperatures for photosynthesis ( T opt ) decreased 3–5°C from understory to the highest canopy position, perhaps due to upper canopy stomatal conductance limitations. Guarea upper canopy T opt was similar to the mean daytime temperatures, while Ocotea canopy leaves often operated above T opt . With minimal acclimation to warmer temperatures in the upper canopy, further warming could put these forests at risk of reduced CO 2 uptake, which could weaken the overall carbon sink strength of this tropical forest.

Carter, Kelsey R.↗

Photosynthetic capacity in middle-aged larch and spruce acclimates independently to experimental warming and elevated CO 2

Photosynthetic acclimation to both warming and elevated CO 2 of boreal trees remains a key uncertainty in modelling the response of photosynthesis to future climates. We investigated the impact of increased growth temperature and elevated CO 2 on photosynthetic capacity (V cmax and J max ) in mature trees of two North American boreal conifers, tamarack and black spruce. We show that V cmax and J max at a standard temperature of 25°C did not change with warming, while V cmax and J max at their thermal optima (T opt ) and growth temperature (T g ) increased. Moreover, V cmax and J max at either 25°C, T opt or T g decreased with elevated CO 2 . The J max /V cmax ratio decreased with warming when assessed at both T opt and T g but did not significantly vary at 25°C. The J max /V cmax increased with elevated CO 2 at either reference temperature. We found no significant interaction between warming and elevated CO 2 on all traits. If this lack of interaction between warming and elevated CO 2 on the V cmax , J max and J max /V cmax ratio is a general trend, it would have significant implications for improving photosynthesis representation in vegetation models. However, future research is required to investigate the widespread nature of this response in a larger number of species and biomes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Winter warming in Alaska accelerates lignin decomposition contributed by Proteobacteria

Background: In a warmer world, microbial decomposition of previously frozen organic carbon (C) is one of the most likely positive climate feedbacks of permafrost regions to the atmosphere. However, mechanistic understanding of microbial mediation on chemically recalcitrant C instability is limited; thus, it is crucial to identify and evaluate active decomposers of chemically recalcitrant C, which is essential for predicting C-cycle feedbacks and their relative strength of influence on climate change. Using stable isotope probing of the active layer of Arctic tundra soils after depleting soil labile C through a 975-day laboratory incubation, the identity of microbial decomposers of lignin and, their responses to warming were revealed. Results: The β - Proteobacteria genus Burkholderia accounted for 95.1% of total abundance of potential lignin decomposers. Consistently, Burkholderia isolated from our tundra soils could grow with lignin as the sole C source. A 2.2 °C increase of warming considerably increased total abundance and functional capacities of all potential lignin decomposers. In addition to Burkholderia , α - Proteobacteria capable of lignin decomposition (e.g. Bradyrhizobium and Methylobacterium genera) were stimulated by warming by 82-fold. Those community changes collectively doubled the priming effect, i.e., decomposition of existing C after fresh C input to soil. Consequently, warming aggravates soil C instability, as verified by microbially enabled climate-C modeling. Conclusions: Our findings are alarming, which demonstrate that accelerated C decomposition under warming conditions will make tundra soils a larger biospheric C source than anticipated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterizing warm atmospheric boundary layer over land by combining Raman and Doppler lidar measurements

PBL plays a critical role in the atmosphere by transferring heat, moisture, and momentum. The warm PBL has a distinct diurnal cycle including daytime convective mixing layer (ML) and nighttime residual layer developments. Thus, for PBL characterization and process study, simultaneous determinations of PBL height (PBLH) and ML height (MLH) are necessary. Here, new approaches are developed to provide reliable PBLH and MLH to characterize warm PBL evolution. The approaches use Raman lidar (RL) water vapor mixing ratio (WVMR) and Doppler lidar (DL) vertical velocity measurements at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory, which was established by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility. Compared with widely used lidar aerosol measurements for PBLH, WVMR is a better trace for PBL vertical mixing. For PBLH, the approach classifies PBL water vapor structures into a few general patterns, then uses a slope method and dynamic threshold method to determine PBLH. For MLH, wavelet analysis is used to re-construct 2-D variance from DL vertical wind velocity measurements according to the turbulence eddy size to minimize the impacts of gravity wave and eddy size on variance calculations; then, a dynamic threshold method is used to determine MLH. Remotely-sensed PBLHs and MLHs are compared with radiosonde measurements based on the Richardson number method. Good agreements between them confirm that the proposed new algorithms are reliable for PBLH and MLH characterization. The algorithms are applied to warm seasons’ RL and ML measurements at the SGP site for five years to study warm season PBL structure and processes. The weekly composited diurnal evolutions of PBLHs and MLHs in warm climate were provided to illustrate diurnal and seasonal PBL evolutions. This reliable PBLH and MLH dataset will be valuable for PBL process study, model evolution, and PBL parameterization improvement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data from: "Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest"

This data package contains data used to support conclusions drawn in “Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest”, by Kueppers et al. 2017. Data were collected in field sites within the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE), located on Niwot Ridge, on the eastern slope of the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA. Files containing geospatial data are also included, to provide additional locational context.There are four document formats associated with this archive: three comma-separated values (.csv) files, three Microsoft Excel (.xlsx) files, one .pdf data user’s guide, four keyhole markup language (.kml) files, and a compressed folder containing seven ESRI shapefiles (.shp). The .csv files can be opened using any simple text-editor software, R, or Microsoft Excel. The .xlsx files can only be opened using Microsoft Excel. The .kml file can be opened by Google Earth and Google Maps, and the shapefiles can be opened with any GIS application compatible with the file type, such as ESRI’s ArcGIS, and QGIS.We provide two versions of the seedling data file: “PIEN_PIFLseedlings20150522_20150525rev12222020.csv/.xlsx” (hereafter PIEN_PIFLseedlings2015) and “PIEN_PIFLseedlings20160408rev12222020.csv/.xlsx” (hereafter PIEN_PIFLseedlings2016). PIEN_PIFLseedlings2015 contains the data we used in the paper. PIEN_PIFLseedlings2016 contains an updated version of these data that includes sampling from later years. The main differences between the two files lie in the columns titled “k[YEAR],” which describe the number of seedlings that were killed in a particular year. In PIEN_PIFLseedlings2016, there also is an additional year of data for k2015, and k2014 also has additional data input for the 2014 cohort. Additionally, in years 2010-2014, there are minor differences in the number of seedlings killed -- in as few as 0 plots (in 2011) to as many as 5 plots (in 2014) -- due to errors in data input that were rectified in later years.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Upslope range shifts by subalpine tree species are a widely anticipated effect of climate change. Climate niche models predict subalpine forests to expand upslope, given more suitable growing conditions for adult trees. However, these models do not take into account climates required for successful seedling recruitment and establishment, an essential element for expansion. Further, localized upper treeline populations are hypothesized to contain favorable traits for colonizing the alpine. To test these expectations and to expand our knowledge of seedling recruitment under climate change, we designed a common garden, climate-warming experiment spread across an elevation gradient at Niwot Ridge in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. We focus on two widespread Western North American species, Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex. Engelm) and limber pine (Pinus flexilis James), which occur at treeline. While the former is considered a late-seral species more tolerant of shade, limber pine is a shade-intolerant pioneer species able to establish on infertile sites.Every autumn, seeds of the two species were collected from high- (3370 m–3570 m) and low-provenance (2910–3240 m) sources close to the experimental sites and sown in our plots. A subset of plots were heated and another subset watered over the summer months to offset the effects of warming. Across five years, we found that seeds originating from low elevation recruited more strongly for both species, although this provenance difference diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. Despite the recruitment of low-provenance seed, warming treatments decreased recruitment at all elevations. Combining this with the likeliness and availability of lower-quality, high provenance seed moving upslope at the treeline, tree migration into the alpine may be slowed. Overall, our findings suggest that the hardier limber pine is likely to become a more significant species in subalpine forest communities in the future, while the more sensitive Engelmann spruce may experience range contraction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Soil C stock and CO2 production data for Soong et al. 2021: Effects of five years of soil warming at Blodgett Forest, CA.

Subsoils below 20 cm are an important reservoir in the global carbon cycle, but little is known about their vulnerability under climate change. We measured subsoil carbon in warmed vs control plots of a conifer forest after 4.5 years of whole-soil warming (4°C). We also measured soil CO2 efflux at the surface and soil CO2 concentrations along the soil profile. Over the 4.5 years we observed that warming resulted in a loss of subsoil carbon stocks (−33 ± 11%), primarily from unprotected particulate organic matter. Warming also stimulated a sustained 30 ± 4% increase in soil CO2 efflux due to increased CO2 production through the whole-soil profile. The observed in situ decline in subsoil carbon stocks with warming is now definitive evidence of a positive soil carbon-climate feedback, which could not be concluded based on increases in CO2 effluxes alone. This dataset comprises (1) 13C and C recovery in 2014, 2016, and 2018 1m soil cores sampled in 10cm increments. (2) Monthly surface CO2 fluxes from 2014 to 2018. (3) Monthly gas well sample [CO2] and production data. And (4) density fraction data for three depths of cores recovered in 2017.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Leaf mass area, leaf carbon and nitrogen content, Utqiagvik, Alaska, 2019

Leaf mass per area (LMA), and leaf carbon and nitrogen content of two Arctic vegetation species (Eriophorum angustifolium Honck., Arctagrostis latifolia (R.Br.) Griseb.) from within warming chambers and paired control plots. The plants were sampled in July 2019 as part of the Zero Power Warming (ZPW) vegetation warming experiment conducted on the Barrow Environmental Observatory, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska. Samples include leaves used for gas exchange measurements and a bulk harvest from each warming chamber and paired ambient plot. The files included in this data package are in .csv format, and include 2 data files and 4 metadata files. See related datasets for plant physiology, phenology and environmental conditions of the plots and warming chambers.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Leaf Mass Area, Leaf Carbon and Nitrogen Content, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2017

Leaf mass per area (LMA), leaf carbon and nitrogen content of vegetation (Petasites frigidus) within warming chambers and paired control plots. See related datasets for plant physiology, phenology and environmental conditions. The files included in this data package are in .csv format, and include 2 data files and 4 metadata files.These data were collected in 2017 as part of a series of single-season warming experiments on tundra vegetation on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Utqiagvik, Alaska. A different plant species was targeted each year, over four experimental years from 2017–2021. Each year, five warming chambers and paired ambient control plots were deployed from around the time of snowmelt in mid-June through to mid-September. Average seasonal warming of 3–4°C was achieved using Zero Power Warming (ZPW) chambers (Lewin et al, 2017). The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Leaf Mass Area, Leaf Carbon and Nitrogen Content, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2018

Leaf mass per area (LMA), leaf carbon and nitrogen content of vegetation (Arctagrostis latifolia, Petasites frigidus) within warming chambers and paired control plots. Samples include gas exchange measurement leaves and an end of season bulk harvest. The files included in this data package are in .csv format, and include 2 data files and 4 metadata files. See related datasets for plant physiology, phenology and environmental conditions of these samples. These data were collected in 2018 as part of a series of single-season warming experiments on tundra vegetation on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Utqiagvik, Alaska. A different plant species was targeted each year, over four experimental years from 2017–2021. Each year, five warming chambers and paired ambient control plots were deployed from around the time of snowmelt in mid-June through to mid-September. Average seasonal warming of 3–4°C was achieved using Zero Power Warming (ZPW) chambers (Lewin et al, 2017).The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Synergistic effects of climate warming and atmospheric nutrient deposition on the alpine lake ecosystem in the south-eastern Tibetan Plateau during the Anthropocene

Alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau are highly sensitive to global change and have been recognized as the sentinel of climate warming. However, anthropogenic impacts in populated area are migrating to these remote areas via transporting particulate nutrients by atmospheric deposition. Whether warming and nutrient deposition would impose additive or synergistic effects on the lake ecosystem remains largely unknown. Here, we present multi-proxy (sediment pigment and geochemistry) records during the past two centuries at the Cuoqia Lake in the southeast Tibetan Plateau. We found that the lake exhibited rapid ecological changes since 1980 AD characterized by an increase in primary productivity due to algal proliferation, with more rapid growth of green algae and diatoms. These findings are in concert with many other lakes (e.g., Moon Lake and Shade Co) in the same area, suggesting a consistent pattern of ecosystem evolution at the region scale. Statistical analyses suggested that nutrient deposition and climate warming were strongly associated with the variations in primary productivity and algae composition, exerting both individual and interactive effects. In addition, scenario analyses with a well-established process-based ecosystem model further revealed that the two factors not only individually, but also synergistically promoted the algal proliferation and community succession. Such synergy is evident in that the effect of lake warming would be more pronounced under higher nutrient deposition scenario, which is potentially due to higher temperature-driven mineralization in warmer conditions, and higher efficiency of nutrient utilization under enhanced light availability attributing to declining ice thickness and duration in cold seasons. Overall, our study proposes the existence and quantifies the synergistic impacts of climate warming and anthropogenic activities in driving the ecological changes in remote alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau. The lake ecological consequences driven by individual factor would be worsen by such synergy, so that we cannot predict the lake ecosystem trajectory in the future based on each factor separately, and more efforts than previously expected would be needed for the lake restoration and management.

Zhang, Can↗

Wintertime extreme warming events in the high Arctic: characteristics, drivers, trends, and the role of atmospheric rivers

Abstract. An extreme warming event near the North Pole, with 2 m temperature rising above 0 °C, was observed in late December 2015. This specific event has been attributed to cyclones and their associated moisture intrusions. However, little is known about the characteristics and drivers of similar events in the historical record. Here, using data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis, version 5 (ERA5), we study these winter extreme warming events with 2 m temperature over a grid point above 0 °C over the high Arctic (poleward of 80° N) that occurred during 1980–2021. In ERA5, such wintertime extreme warming events can only be found over the Atlantic sector. They occur rarely over many grid points, with a total absence during some winters. Furthermore, even when occurring, they tend to be short-lived, with the majority of the events lasting for less than a day. By examining their surface energy budget, we found that these events transition with increasing latitude from a regime dominated by turbulent heat flux into the one dominated by downward longwave radiation. Positive sea level pressure anomalies which resemble blocking over northern Eurasia are identified as a key ingredient in driving these events, as they can effectively deflect the eastward propagating cyclones poleward, leading to intense moisture and heat intrusions into the high Arctic. Using an atmospheric river (AR) detection algorithm, the roles of ARs in contributing to the occurrence of these extreme warming events defined at the grid-point scale are explicitly quantified. The importance of ARs in inducing these events increases with latitude. Poleward of about 83° N, 100 % of these events occurred under AR conditions, corroborating that ARs were essential in contributing to the occurrence of these events. Over the past 4 decades, both the frequency, duration, and magnitude of these events have been increasing significantly. As the Arctic continues to warm, these events are likely to increase in both frequency, duration, and magnitude, with great implications for the local sea ice, hydrological cycle, and ecosystem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗