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For treaty monitoring, the ability to accurately locate seismic events is essential. Since many event location techniques rely on the comparison of observed to predicted seismic wave travel times through the Earth, it is important to be able to accurately estimate travel times and their uncertainties.
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Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Abstract Gravity waves (GWs) are among the key drivers of the meridional overturning circulation in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere. Their representation in climate models suffers from insufficient resolution and limited observational constraints on their parameterizations. This obscures assessments of middle atmospheric circulation changes in a changing climate. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of stratospheric GW activity above and downstream of the Andes from 1 to 15 August 2019, with special focus on GW representation ranging from an unprecedented kilometer-scale global forecast model (1.4 km ECMWF IFS), ground-based Rayleigh lidar (CORAL) observations, modern reanalysis (ERA5), to a coarse-resolution climate model (EMAC). Resolved vertical flux of zonal GW momentum (GWMF) is found to be stronger by a factor of at least 2–2.5 in IFS compared to ERA5. Compared to resolved GWMF in IFS, parameterizations in ERA5 and EMAC continue to inaccurately generate excessive GWMF poleward of 60°S, yielding prominent differences between resolved and parameterized GWMFs. A like-to-like validation of GW profiles in IFS and ERA5 reveals similar wave structures. Still, even at ∼1 km resolution, the resolved waves in IFS are weaker than those observed by lidar. Further, GWMF estimates across datasets reveal that temperature-based proxies, based on midfrequency approximations for linear GWs, overestimate GWMF due to simplifications and uncertainties in GW wavelength estimation from data. Overall, the analysis provides GWMF benchmarks for parameterization validation and calls for three-dimensional GW parameterizations, better upper-boundary treatment, and vertical resolution increases commensurate with increases in horizontal resolution in models, for a more realistic GW analysis. Significance Statement Gravity wave–induced momentum forcing forms a key component of the middle atmospheric circulation. However, complete knowledge of gravity waves, their atmospheric effects, and their long-term trends are obscured due to limited global observations, and the inability of current climate models to fully resolve them. This study combines a kilometer-scale forecast model, modern reanalysis, and a coarse-resolution climate model to first compare the resolved and parameterized momentum fluxes by gravity waves generated over the Andes, and then evaluate the fluxes using a state-of-the-art ground-based Rayleigh lidar. Our analysis reveals shortcomings in current model parameterizations of gravity waves in the middle atmosphere and highlights the sensitivity of the estimated flux to the formulation used.
Complex shear wave splitting (SWS) patterns in subduction zones are often interpreted geodynamically as resulting from complex mantle flow; however, this may not always be necessary. We analyzed 7,093 high-quality SWS measurements from teleseismic S waves recorded by Hi-net stations across the Ryukyu arc in Japan. Our findings show a systematic rotation of the fast S polarization from trench-parallel to trench-perpendicular depending on the earthquake backazimuth. For the same earthquake, the measured splitting patterns also vary spatially across the southwest Japan. Using full-wave seismic modeling, we showed that a dipping slab with ~30% shear anisotropy of the tilted transverse isotropy (TTI) type, with a symmetry axis perpendicular to the slab interface, can predict the observed delay times and polarization rotation. Our results highlight the importance of considering dipping anisotropic slabs in interpreting SWS at subduction zones.
A three-dimensional (3D) planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization was added to the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport (COAWST) model and the first coupled atmosphere/wave "gray zone" simulations were carried out using the 3D PBL parameterization. A case study of a significant wind-wave event from 4-8 November 2020 off the US west coast was examined, with a focus on the impacts of the event within an approximate 280x280 km central California coastal region covering the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Morro Bay wind energy lease area. Simulations with both one-dimensional (1D; Yonsei University) and 3D PBL parameterizations were examined in this nest with ..delta..x=400 m. Two-way coupling was active, with near-surface winds feeding back to the wave model and bulk wave statistics feeding back to the atmospheric model. Both simulations compared favorably with buoy observations in capturing the timing and magnitude of wind speed, temperature, dewpoint, and significant wave height, as the front associated with the maritime weather system moved southward across coastal California. However, wind speed errors over land were larger. Time series of the vertical profile of winds below z=250 m from the simulations compared favorably with observations from the US Dept. of Energy Morro Bay Doppler lidar buoy. Differences between the coupled 1D and 3D PBL simulations were minor. The most notable difference was that the simulation using the 3D PBL parameterization had approximately 10 % weaker winds at the peak of the event causing 10 % lower significant wave heights. This difference was shown to be mostly due to differences in the vertical mixing treatment between the parameterizations, in particular the nonlocal downward mixing of higher momentum air in the 1D Yonsei University parameterization in convective conditions. Overall, this work demonstrates that the 3D PBL parameterization can be used in a coupled atmosphere/wave modeling framework with similar behaviors as traditional PBL parameterizations that do not provide horizontal turbulent variances and fluxes.
The modeling of gamma-ray burst afterglow emission bears witness to strong electron heating in the precursor of Weibel-mediated, relativistic collisionless shock waves propagating in unmagnetized electron–ion plasmas. In this Letter, we propose a theoretical model, which describes electron heating via a Joule-like process caused by pitch-angle scattering in the decelerating, self-induced microturbulence and the coherent charge-separation field induced by the difference in inertia between electrons and ions. The emergence of this electric field across the precursor of electron–ion shocks is confirmed by large-scale particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations. Integrating the model using a Monte Carlo-Poisson method, we compare the main observables to the PIC simulations to conclude that the above mechanism can indeed account for the bulk of electron heating.
FullWave is a computer code that simulates how radio-frequency (RF) waves travel and deposit energy in the hot plasma inside a fusion reactor. RF waves are used to heat the plasma and drive electrical current, which is essential for sustaining fusion reactions. The code uses a new algorithm that can handle much finer spatial detail than previous codes — more than 100 times finer — while running efficiently on national supercomputers. It incorporates a detailed physics model that captures subtle kinetic effects important for accurate prediction of wave behavior. Under this project, FullWave was extended to cover multiple RF frequency ranges relevant to present and future tokamaks, and validated against experimental parameters from the DIII-D tokamak at General Atomics. Results were published in peer-reviewed journal articles.
In the last decade, uncertainty quantification (UQ) for optical model potentials (OMPs) has become a focal point for nuclear reaction theory, and several competing approaches for OMP UQ have recently been developed. Here, we clarify recent efforts to compare frequentist and Bayesian approaches in the context of OMP UQ [G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019)]. We replicate a portion of that OMP UQ study but use independent statistical tools. Specifically, we compare two methods for OMP parameter inference from elastic scattering data: the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for χ 2 minimization on one hand and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling on the other. Separately, we assess the common practice of using a renormalized likelihood (χ 2 /N), N being the number of data points, instead of the canonical weighted-least-squares likelihood (χ 2 ), as a way of accounting for unknown data correlations. Here, we show that for a generic linear model and for a five-parameter OMP analysis, frequentist and uniform-prior Bayesian approaches recover the same optimum and uncertainty estimates—not systematically larger uncertainties for the Bayesian approach, as was concluded in G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019). Further, we show that if an additional, near-degenerate parameter is introduced into the same OMP analysis such that the parameter posterior becomes non-Gaussian, then covariance-based estimates of uncertainty become unreliable. Finally, we show that regardless of optimization approach, if χ 2 /N is used for the likelihood, the resulting parametric uncertainties increase by $\sqrt{N}$, and that this is responsible for the conclusions drawn in the revisited study. Based on our replication results, we find that a fortuitous cancellation of unreported errors and the renormalization factor can lead to improvement in empirical coverages, as was the case in the original comparative study. We emphasize that developing and applying a realistic likelihood function is an essential task in a UQ analysis, and that several recent UQ studies that employed a renormalized likelihood (i.e., including a 1/N factor) may have yielded unrealistically large uncertainties for elastic-scattering observables. If the parameter posterior deviates from multivariate-normal, a sampling-based approach like MCMC has a clear advantage over methods that assume the Laplace approximation holds. We note that empirical coverage can serve as an important internal check for the analyst whose model or data may have additional, unaccounted-for uncertainties.
The surge voltage induced by lightning will generate an inrush current in a grid-connected converter. It may not be large in Si-based converters because of the large grid side inductive filter. However, for SiC-based multi-level converters, the inrush current could be very large due to the small filter inductance, which is selected based on the current harmonic consideration. Most previous work focuses on system-level lightning protection while the converter-level impact, especially the internal components of the converter, is rarely discussed. This paper presents the analysis of the impact of the lightning surge on a 10 kV SiC MOSFET-based 13.8 kV three-phase four-wire grid-connected converter. The IEEE arrester model and the combined wave generator model in IEC 61000-4-5 standard are used to evaluate the inrush current, DC-link overvoltage, and component-to-ground potential of the converter. Analysis and simulation results have been provided to demonstrate the impact of lightning on the grid-connected converter. It is found that large inrush current occurs due to the small filter inductance, and the neutral-to-ground impedance impacts both the inrush current and the neutral point-to-ground potential.
Reactive burn models for propagating detonation waves in an explosive are based on the ZND (Zel'dovich-Von Neumann-Doring) theory. A key property of the ZND theory, which leads to self-sustaining detonation waves, is a sonic point relative to the front in the reaction zone. Moreover, burn models assume the explosive is a homogeneous material. This assumption is used for plastic-bonded explosives, even though they are heterogeneous materials. The heterogeneities are accounted for only with an empirical burn rate. Furthermore, the reaction-zone width can be less than the length scale of heterogeneities. This raises the question of the effect of heterogeneities on the reaction zone. In particular, whether the reaction zone can be steady and have a well defined sonic point. To examine this question we focus on PBX 9501 since there is data on the grain-binder heterogeneities and on the reaction-zone velocity time history of a steady planar detonation wave. Using pseudo-mesoscale 1-D simulations, we examine the effect of a detonation wave transversing explosive and binder segments of random length. The simulations show that the reaction zone is quasi-steady with only short wavelength small amplitude variations in the detonation wave pressure and speed. The main effect of the heterogeneities is to introduce noise in the pressure and velocity fields that propagates into the Taylor wave behind the detonation. This is consistent with the scatter in the reaction-zone measurements for PBX 9501.
Abstract This article presents an approach to implement a Nonlinear Model Predictive Controller (NMPC) in real‐time with a non‐standard cost index. The proposed technique's applications are presented to maximize the energy produced by a Wave Energy Converter (WEC) when the cost index is a non‐quadratic piecewise discontinuous functional of some design variables. The presented framework is based on pseudo‐quadratisation and weight scheduling, which is implemented using the ACADO toolkit for MATLAB/Simulink. The proposed strategy features code generation and deployment on the real‐time target machines for industrial applications. The simulations and experiments confirm the success of the proposed approach in achieving the feasible operation of the NMPC and an optimal power capture by the wave energy converters.
Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October–19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.
Modeling and control of wave energy conversion (WEC) systems for maximum power extraction is challenging due to complex multiphysics that include fluids, mechanics, and machine drives. To uncover an intuitive model that clearly depicts WEC system operation, we utilize a force-current equivalent circuit framework which then enables us to design an impedance emulation control strategy. To provide context for our framework, we focus on a standard reference model-3 (RM3) point absorber device coupled to a permanent magnet synchronous generator. After the proposed extremum seeking controller is computed, we experimentally validate its performance on a platform that consists of two back-to-back connected inverters that emulate the WEC system.