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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Temperature Increase Reduces Global Yields of Major Crops in Four Independent Estimates

Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multi-method analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.

Zhao, Chuang↗
NASA NTRS2010

Salience Assignment for Multiple-Instance Data and Its Application to Crop Yield Prediction

An algorithm was developed to generate crop yield predictions from orbital remote sensing observations, by analyzing thousands of pixels per county and the associated historical crop yield data for those counties. The algorithm determines which pixels contain which crop. Since each known yield value is associated with thousands of individual pixels, this is a multiple instance learning problem. Because individual crop growth is related to the resulting yield, this relationship has been leveraged to identify pixels that are individually related to corn, wheat, cotton, and soybean yield. Those that have the strongest relationship to a given crop s yield values are most likely to contain fields with that crop. Remote sensing time series data (a new observation every 8 days) was examined for each pixel, which contains information for that pixel s growth curve, peak greenness, and other relevant features. An alternating-projection (AP) technique was used to first estimate the "salience" of each pixel, with respect to the given target (crop yield), and then those estimates were used to build a regression model that relates input data (remote sensing observations) to the target. This is achieved by constructing an exemplar for each crop in each county that is a weighted average of all the pixels within the county; the pixels are weighted according to the salience values. The new regression model estimate then informs the next estimate of the salience values. By iterating between these two steps, the algorithm converges to a stable estimate of both the salience of each pixel and the regression model. The salience values indicate which pixels are most relevant to each crop under consideration.

Wagstaff, Kiri L.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Pattern recognition of Landsat data based upon temporal trend analysis

The Delta Classifier defined as an agricultural crop classification scheme employing a temporal trend procedure is applied to more than 100 different Landsat data sets collected during the 1974-1975 growing season throughout the major wheat-producing regions of the United States. The classification approach stresses examination of temporal trends of the Landsat mean vectors of crops in the absence of corresponding ground truth information. It is shown that the resulting classifications compare favorably to ground truth estimates for wheat proportion in those cases where ground truth is available, and that the temporal trend procedure yields estimates of the wheat proportion that are comparable to the best results from maximum likelihood classification with photointerpreter-defined training fields.

Engvall, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Regional Disparities in the Beneficial Effects of Rising CO2 Emissions on Crop Water Productivity

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are expected to enhance photosynthesis and reduce crop water use. However, there is high uncertainty about the global implications of these effects for future crop production and agricultural water requirements under climate change. Here we combine results from networks of field experiments and global crop models to present a spatially explicit global perspective on crop water productivity (CWP, the ratio of crop yield to evapotranspiration) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean under elevated carbon dioxide and associated climate change projected for a high-end greenhouse gas emissions scenario. We find carbon dioxide effects increase global CWP by 10[0;47]%-27[7;37]% (median[interquartile range] across the model ensemble) by the 2080s depending on crop types, with particularly large increases in arid regions (by up to 48[25;56]% for rain fed wheat). If realized in the fields, the effects of elevated carbon dioxide could considerably mitigate global yield losses whilst reducing agricultural consumptive water use (4-17%). We identify regional disparities driven by differences in growing conditions across agro-ecosystems that could have implications for increasing food production without compromising water security. Finally, our results demonstrate the need to expand field experiments and encourage greater consistency in modeling the effects of rising carbon dioxide across crop and hydrological modeling communities.

Deryng, Delphine↗
NASA NTRS2014

Impacts of El Nino Southern Oscillation on the Global Yields of Major Crops

The monitoring and prediction of climate-induced variations in crop yields, production and export prices in major food-producing regions have become important to enable national governments in import-dependent countries to ensure supplies of affordable food for consumers. Although the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) often affects seasonal temperature and precipitation, and thus crop yields in many regions, the overall impacts of ENSO on global yields are uncertain. Here we present a global map of the impacts of ENSO on the yields of major crops and quantify its impacts on their global-mean yield anomalies. Results show that El Nino likely improves the global-mean soybean yield by 2.15.4 but appears to change the yields of maize, rice and wheat by -4.3 to +0.8. The global-mean yields of all four crops during La Nina years tend to be below normal (-4.5 to 0.0).Our findings highlight the importance of ENSO to global crop production.

Crops↗
NASA NTRS2023

Future Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Agricultural Yields, Production, and Market

This study provides estimates of climate change impacts on U.S. agricultural yields and the agricultural economy through the end of the 21st century, utilizing multiple climate scenarios. Results from a process-based crop model project future increases in wheat, grassland, and soybean yield due to climate change and atmospheric CO2 change; corn and sorghum show more muted responses. Results using yields from econometric models show less positive results. Both the econometric and process-based models tend to show more positive yields by the end of the century than several other similar studies. Using the process-based model to provide future yield estimates to an integrated agricultural sector model, the welfare gain is roughly $16B/year (2019 USD) for domestic producers and $6.2B/year for international trade, but domestic consumers lose $10.6B/year, resulting in a total welfare gain of $11.7B/year. When yield projections for major crops are drawn instead from econometric models, total welfare losses of more than $28B/year arise. Simulations using the process-based model as input to the agricultural sector model show large future production increases for soybean, wheat, and sorghum and large price reductions for corn and wheat. The most important factors are those about economic growth, flooding, international trade, and the type of yield model used. Somewhat less, but not insignificant factors include adaptation, livestock productivity, and damages from surface ozone, waterlogging, and pests and diseases.

Agricultural sector↗
NASA NTRS1982

Evaluation of the Williams-type spring wheat model in North Dakota and Minnesota

The Williams type model, developed similarly to previous models of C.V.D. Williams, uses monthly temperature and precipitation data as well as soil and topological variables to predict the yield of the spring wheat crop. The models are statistically developed using the regression technique. Eight model characteristics are examined in the evaluation of the model. Evaluation is at the crop reporting district level, the state level and for the entire region. A ten year bootstrap test was the basis of the statistical evaluation. The accuracy and current indication of modeled yield reliability could show improvement. There is great variability in the bias measured over the districts, but there is a slight overall positive bias. The model estimates for the east central crop reporting district in Minnesota are not accurate. The estimate of yield for 1974 were inaccurate for all of the models.

Leduc, S.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Testing and validating the CERES-wheat (Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis-wheat) model in diverse environments

CERES-Wheat is a computer simulation model of the growth, development, and yield of spring and winter wheat. It was designed to be used in any location throughout the world where wheat can be grown. The model is written in Fortran 77, operates on a daily time stop, and runs on a range of computer systems from microcomputers to mainframes. Two versions of the model were developed: one, CERES-Wheat, assumes nitrogen to be nonlimiting; in the other, CERES-Wheat-N, the effects of nitrogen deficiency are simulated. The report provides the comparisons of simulations and measurements of about 350 wheat data sets collected from throughout the world.

Otter-Nacke, S.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Argentina Food Security & Agriculture: Crop Monitoring and Forecasting for Argentina using NASA Satellite Observations

Early harvest information helps guide agricultural commodity assessments in Argentina, providing valuable planning information to identify potentially food-insecure regions, anticipate transportation and storage demands, predict price fluctuations, and project commodity trends. However, crop yield estimates are currently subjective, based on interviews with qualified informants (i.e., farmers, agribusiness actors). In partnership with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, we leveraged Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), and Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG) NASA Earth observations to develop a Google Earth Engine (GEE) toolset to monitor vegetation growth. The first component of the toolset produces spatial and temporal maps of temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), allowing users to visualize the influence of the region’s climate and weather. Next, we developed an autoregressive model to predict NDVI several months in advance. Lastly, we created a linear regression model of crop yield and NDVI for soybeans, corn, and wheat, and input the forecasted NDVI to generate a predicted crop yield output. The NDVI forecasting model produced accurate predictions at two, four, and six months when examining the most recent growing season. In the crop yield model, soybeans exhibited moderately strong correlation, wheat had consistent weak correlation, and corn varied from weak to strong correlation depending on zone. This information is vital for vegetation growth monitoring by identifying areas of high growth and allocating resources to areas of lower growth to efficiently maximize crop yields.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗
NASA NTRS1977

Airborne monitoring of crop canopy temperatures for irrigation scheduling and yield prediction

The aim of the program discussed was to develop techniques for remotely measuring crop irrigation needs and predicting crop yields, with emphasis on wheat. Airborne measurements, using an IR line scanner and color IR photography, were made to evaluate the feasibility of measuring minimum and maximum (dawn and afternoon) crop temperatures to compute a parameter, termed 'stress degree day' (SDD) - a valuable indicator of crop water needs, which can be related to irrigation scheduling and yield. Crop canopy temperature measurements by airborne IR techniques revealed the superiority of thermal IR data over color IR photography. Water stress undetected in the latter technique was clearly detected in thermal imagery. Color IR photography, however, is valuable in discerning vegetation. The pseudo-colored temperature-difference images (and pseudo-colored images, reading directly in daily SDD increments) are shown to be well suited for assessing plant water status and, thus, for determining the irrigation needs and crop yield potentials.

Millard, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Wheat - Its growth and disease severity as deduced from ERTS-1

The spectral reflectance of a cropped surface changes as the plant develops. An indicator of crop growth is leaf area index (ratio of green leaf area to soil area). The leaf area index, disease severity, and yield were determined for several winter wheat fields in Kansas during the 1973 growing season. Multispectral scanner (MSS) data from Earth Resources Technology Satellite-1 (ERTS-1) showed a high correlation (r greater than or equal to 0.90) between crop growth and MSS4/MSS5, and crop growth and MSS5/MSS6. Wheat disease severity and yields were significantly correlated at the 5% level with MSS4/MSS6 and with MSS4/MSS7. Further investigation is required before ERTS imagery can be routinely used detecting and estimating disease severity and yield reduction.

Kanemasu, E. T.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Wheat productivity estimates using LANDSAT data

The author has identified the following significant results. Objective measurements of percent green wheat cover on May 21 were significantly correlated with yield, as were measurements of green LAI and LANDSAT data. Three data sets from the Finney test site were analyzed from LANDSAT passes on 22 November 1974, 15 April 1975, and 21 May 1975. After mean signal values in each band were computed for each sufficiently large wheat field, the mean values were correlated with the farmer estimates of wheat grain yield in order to assess relative information content. It is clear that the single best spectral temporal band for predicting yield is the 15 April red band (0.6-0.7 microns, band 5), with the 15 April green band (0.5-0.6 microns, band 4) a close second.

Nalepka, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Accuracy assessment system and operation

The accuracy and reliability of LACIE estimates of wheat production, area, and yield is determined at regular intervals throughout the year by the accuracy assessment subsystem which also investigates the various LACIE error sources, quantifies the errors, and relates then to their causes. Timely feedback of these error evaluations to the LACIE project was the only mechanism by which improvements in the crop estimation system could be made during the short 3 year experiment.

Pitts, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Accuracy assessment in the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment

The Accuracy Assessment System (AAS) of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) was responsible for determining the accuracy and reliability of LACIE estimates of wheat production, area, and yield, made at regular intervals throughout the crop season, and for investigating the various LACIE error sources, quantifying these errors, and relating them to their causes. Some results of using the AAS during the three years of LACIE are reviewed. As the program culminated, AAS was able not only to meet the goal of obtaining accurate statistical estimates of sampling and classification accuracy, but also the goal of evaluating component labeling errors. Furthermore, the ground-truth data processing matured from collecting data for one crop (small grains) to collecting, quality-checking, and archiving data for all crops in a LACIE small segment.

Houston, A. G.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Photosynthetic capacity and dry mass partitioning in dwarf and semi-dwarf wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)

Efficient use of space and high yields are critical for long-term food production aboard the International Space Station. The selection of a full dwarf wheat (less than 30 cm tall) with high photosynthetic and yield potential is a necessary prerequisite for growing wheat in the controlled, volume-limited environments available aboard long-term spaceflight missions. This study evaluated the photosynthetic capacity and carbon partitioning of a full-dwarf wheat cultivar, Super Dwarf, which is routinely used in spaceflight studies aboard U.S. space shuttle and NASA/Mir missions and made comparisons with other dwarf and semi-dwarf wheat cultivars utilized in other ground-based studies in plant space biology. Photosynthetic capacity of the flag leaf in two dwarf (Super Dwarf, BB-19), and three semi-dwarf (Veery-10, Yecora Rojo, IBWSN 199) wheat cultivars (Triticum aestivum L.) was assessed by measuring: net maximum photosynthetic rate, RuBP carboxylation efficiency, chlorophyll concentration and flag leaf area. Dry mass partitioning of carbohydrates to the leaves, sheaths, stems and ear was also assessed. Plants were grown under controlled environmental conditions in three replicate studies: slightly enriched CO2 (370 micromoles mol-1), high photosynthetic photon flux (1000 micromoles m-2 s-1; 58 mol m-2 d-1) for a 16 h photoperiod, 22/15 degrees C day/night temperatures, ample nutrients and water provided by one-half strength Hoagland's nutrient solution (Hoagland and Arnon, 1950). Photosynthetic capacity of the flag leaf was determined at anthesis using net CO2 exchange rate versus internal CO2 concentration curves measured under saturating light (2000 micromoles m-2 s-1) and CO2 (1000 micromoles mol-1). Dwarf wheat cultivars had greater photosynthetic capacities than the taller semi-dwarfs, they averaged 20% higher maximum net photosynthetic rates compared to the taller semi-dwarfs, but these higher rates occurred only at anthesis, had slightly greater carboxylation efficiencies and significantly increased chlorophyll concentrations per unit leaf area. The reduced-height wheat had significantly less dry mass fraction in the stem but greater dry mass partitioned to the ear than the taller semi-dwarfs (Yecora rojo, IBWSN-199). Studies with detached heads confirm that the head is a significant sink in the shorter wheat cultivars.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2022

Global Gridded Crop Models Underestimate Yield Responses to Droughts and Heatwaves

Extreme events can lead to crop yield declines, resulting in financial losses and threats to food security, and the frequency and intensity of such events is projected to increase. As global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are commonly used to assess climate change impacts on agricultural yields, there is a need to understand whether these models are able to reproduce the observed yield declines. We evaluated 13 GGCMs from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project and compared observed and simulated impact of past droughts and heatwaves on yields for four crops (maize, rice, soy, wheat). We found that most models detect but underestimate the impact of droughts and heatwaves on yield. Specifically, the drought signal was detected by 12 of 13 models for maize and all models for wheat, while the heat signal was detected by eleven models for maize and six models for wheat. To investigate whether the difference between simulated and observed yield declines is due to a misrepresentation of simulated exposure to heat or water scarcity (i.e. misrepresentation of growing season), we analysed the relationship between average discrepancies between observed and simulated yield losses, and average simulated exposure to extreme weather conditions across all crop models. We found a positive correlation between simulated exposure to heat and model performance for heatwaves, but found no correlation for droughts. This suggests that there is a systematic underestimation of yield responses to heat and drought and not only a misrepresentation of exposure. Assuming that performance for the past indicates models' capacity to project future yield impacts, models likely underestimate future yield decline from climate change. High-quality temporally and spatially resolved observational data on growing seasons will be highly valuable to further improve crop models' capacity to adequately respond to extreme weather events.

extreme events↗
NASA NTRS1977

The Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment

Determination of wheat acreages in the central U.S., as well as the development and testing of yield models, is discussed in the framework of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). Particular attention is given to the goal of obtaining a 90% accuracy in yield forecasts in nine out of ten years. Current results of LACIE indicate that Landsat remote sensing data, in conjunction with information from agricultural meteorological surveys, can provide highly accurate early-season and at-harvest yield estimates in the principal wheat-growing regions of the world.

Macdonald, R. B.↗