Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “winter weather”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9

Mesoscale Organization in Cumulus-Coupled Stratocumulus

Marine cloud systems cover a substantial portion of the world’s oceans. Most of these clouds form relatively close to the ocean surface, typically within one to two kilometers, a region referred to by meteorologists as the marine boundary layer. They are composed predominantly of liquid water, although ice particles can occur in mid- and high-latitude marine clouds during winter. In satellite imagery, these clouds appear bright against the darker ocean surface below, reflecting a large fraction of incoming sunlight back into space that would otherwise warm the ocean. Because marine boundary layer clouds cover such an extensive area of the ocean, they exert a significant influence on Earth’s overall transfer of solar energy absorbed by the surface and thermal energy emitted to space, a balance known as the planetary radiation budget. Marine boundary layer clouds are typically thin, and their formation and dissipation depend on a delicate balance between processes acting at the ocean surface below and the warm, dry air above. They are notoriously difficult to simulate accurately in weather forecast models, which often produce too few marine low clouds in midlatitudes and clouds in tropical regions that are excessively bright, meaning they reflect too much solar radiation. The marine boundary layer is frequently characterized by widespread overcast cloud cover that often transitions from a continuous, single-layer deck to more broken cloud fields toward the tropics. These transitions typically proceed through an intermediate stage in which shallow, broken clouds form beneath the overlying stratiform cloud deck. Once broken clouds develop below the overcast, they frequently self-organize into cloud clusters known as marine boundary layer convective complexes (MBLCCs), although the mechanisms governing the formation and organization of MBLCCs remain poorly understood. Accurately representing these transitions in long-range weather forecast models is essential because they influence the properties of air masses advected over the continental United States and Europe, and they become increasingly important for forecasts on seasonal and longer timescales. We employed two complementary approaches to investigate the processes controlling MBLCCs and their impact on marine cloud cover. Long-term observations from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) Observatory provided a unique dataset that allowed us to characterize fundamental properties of MBLCCs, including their typical size and frequency of occurrence. These observations were combined with high-resolution numerical simulations performed on supercomputers to examine the evolution of MBLCCs during cold-air outbreaks over the ENA region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Indirect climate impacts of the Hunga eruption

Injection of sulfur and water vapour by the Hunga volcanic eruption significantly altered chemical composition and radiative budget of the stratosphere. Yet, whether the eruption could also affect surface climate, especially via indirect pathways, remains poorly understood. Here we investigate these effects using large ensembles of simulations with the CESM2(WACCM6) Earth system model, incorporating interactive chemistry and aerosols in both coupled ocean and atmosphere-only configurations. We find some statistically significant extratropical regional climate responses to the eruption driven by circulation changes; these are partially linked to the modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and its associated teleconnections, and to perturbations of the stratospheric polar vortex in both hemispheres. The stratospheric anomalies affect surface climate through modulating the North Atlantic Oscillation in the Northern Hemisphere (up to three boreal winters following the eruption) and the Southern Annular Mode in the Southern Hemisphere in late 2023. The latter is partly related to a concurrent reduction in Antarctic ozone, as increased stratospheric aerosols and water vapor reach the polar vortex. Our study suggests that the eruption could have had a non-negligible influence on regional surface climate, and discusses the mechanisms via which such an influence could occur. However, the results also highlight that this forcing is relatively weak compared to interannual variability, and is subject to model uncertainties in the representation of key processes. More research is thus needed before definitive statements on the role of the eruption in contributing to surface climate and weather events in the following years are made.

Geosciences↗

Annual cycle observations of aerosols capable of ice formation in central Arctic clouds

The Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, prompting glacial melt, permafrost thaw, and sea ice decline. These severe consequences induce feedbacks that contribute to amplified warming, affecting weather and climate globally. Aerosols and clouds play a critical role in regulating radiation reaching the Arctic surface. However, the magnitude of their effects is not adequately quantified, especially in the central Arctic where they impact the energy balance over the sea ice. Specifically, aerosols called ice nucleating particles (INPs) remain understudied yet are necessary for cloud ice production and subsequent changes in cloud lifetime, radiative effects, and precipitation. Here, we report observations of INPs in the central Arctic over a full year, spanning the entire sea ice growth and decline cycle. Further, these observations are size-resolved, affording valuable information on INP sources. Our results reveal a strong seasonality of INPs, with lower concentrations in the winter and spring controlled by transport from lower latitudes, to enhanced concentrations of INPs during the summer melt, likely from marine biological production in local open waters. This comprehensive characterization of INPs will ultimately help inform cloud parameterizations in models of all scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

VisMetHack2022: Visualizing winds and surface variables from the ECMWF IFS 1-km nature run

This data collection was contributed to the Visualisation Hackathon 2022 (#VisMetHack2022), in conjunction with the Using ECMWF's Forecasts (UEF2022) workshop. The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) are pleased to announce access to the data collection from global 1-km nature run (NR) simulations using the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) with explicit convection. We invite you to join us in exploring this precursor to a digital twin of the earth! The NR simulations reveal unprecedented detail of the earth’s atmosphere, and the then outgoing Editor-in-Chief of AGU JAMES commended the project as one of “stunning ambitions,” enabled by computational capacity at scale. The project also won the 2020 HPCwire Readers Choice Award for Best Use of HPC in Physical Sciences. A set of two NR seasonal simulations have been completed, one corresponding to the northern hemispheric winter months (NDJF) and the other for the North Atlantic tropical cyclone season (ASO). The project used the Summit supercomputer at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF). The simulations were facilitated with an INCITE award from the US Department of Energy Office of Science. For the first seasonal run of four months (NDJF), the hydrostatic IFS model was initialized at 00Z on 1 November 2018. The NR for the TC season (AS) was initialized at 00Z on 1 August 2019. The NR simulations were constrained only by sea surface temperatures (SST) at the lower boundary. The IFS output was saved every 3 hours. After feedback and interest from the scientific community, the simulations were rerun for four specific extreme events, with output every 15 minutes. The special cases include a tropical cycle and three severe storm events over the continental USA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cross‐Equatorial Surges Boost MJO's Southward Detour Over the Maritime Continent

Abstract The influence of the cross‐equatorial northerly surge (CES) on the eastward propagation of Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter is evaluated through the analysis of the column integrated moisture budget. Results show that the CES reinforces MJO's southward detour by increasing horizontal moisture convergence over the southern Maritime Continent (MC) region. Further analysis reveals that the zonal convergence by intraseasonal zonal wind anomalies acting upon background moisture is intensified in the presence of CES events, causing a stronger convective activity in the southern MC (SMC). The stronger moisture convergence in the SMC is associated with the CES‐induced intensification of low‐level northwesterly and westerly winds, which, in turn, strengthen zonal wind convergences and positive wind‐evaporation feedbacks onto the MJO convection. An improved process understanding of the link between the CES and MJO detours can help engender improvements in extreme weather forecasts and aid investigation biases in simulating MJO in climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Machine Learning Correction Model of the Winter Clear-Sky Temperature Bias over the Arctic Sea Ice in Atmospheric Reanalyses

Atmospheric reanalyses are widely used to estimate the past atmospheric near-surface state over sea ice. They provide boundary conditions for sea ice and ocean numerical simulations and relevant information for studying polar variability and anthropogenic climate change. Previous research revealed the existence of large near-surface temperature biases (mostly warm) over the Arctic sea ice in the current generation of atmospheric reanalyses, which is linked to a poor representation of the snow over the sea ice and the stably stratified boundary layer in the forecast models used to produce the reanalyses. These errors can compromise the employment of reanalysis products in support of polar research. Here, we train a fully connected neural network that learns from remote sensing infrared temperature observations to correct the existing generation of uncoupled atmospheric reanalyses (ERA5, JRA-55) based on a set of sea ice and atmospheric predictors, which are themselves reanalysis products. The advantages of the proposed correction scheme over previous calibration attempts are the consideration of the synoptic weather and cloud state, compatibility of the predictors with the mechanism responsible for the bias, and a self-emerging seasonality and multidecadal trend consistent with the declining sea ice state in the Arctic. The correction leads on average to a 27% temperature bias reduction for ERA5 and 7% for JRA-55 if compared to independent in situ observations from the MOSAiC campaign (respectively, 32% and 10% under clear-sky conditions). These improvements can be beneficial for forced sea ice and ocean simulations, which rely on reanalyses surface fields as boundary conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A validated thermal and biological model for predicting algal productivity in large scale outdoor cultivation systems

Proper assessment of the sustainability of algal products requires an understanding of algal growth rate with regional and temporal resolution. This study developed a bulk growth model that utilizes geospatial data, reactor geometry inputs, and a maximum of six strain-specific parameters to predict algal productivity with temporal and regional resolution. The model requires local weather data to calculate the time-resolved culture temperature which is combined with a biological model based on maximum theoretical carbon fixation to predict the time-resolved algal concentration. Validation of the model against experimental data illustrates an average ac- curacy of 0.27% ± 5.32% when comparing algal concentration at harvest over 45 days of cultivation data for Galdieria sulphuraria 5587.1, and Galdieria sulphuraria Soos grown in photobioreactors (PBRs) in Mesa, AZ (33.4152° N, 111.8315° W). For open raceway ponds (ORPs), an accuracy of 0.9% ± 2.35% was achieved when comparing algal concentration at harvest over 50 days of cultivation data for Chlorella vulgaris, Desmodesmus intermedius, Nannochloropsis oceanica grown in Atlanta, GA (33.7490° N, 84.3880° W) and Mesa, AZ (33.4152° N, 111.8315° W). The validation trials spanned three seasons (winter, spring, and summer) to ensure model ac- curacy throughout the year, and concentration between harvests was modeled with hourly resolution. The validated model is used to assess the productivity at several case-study locations in the United States with Chlorella vulgaris, grown in open raceway ponds and Galdieria sulphuraria grown in vertical flat panel photo- bioreactors. In conclusion, the model has been published as an open-source tool, in an effort to increase the fidelity of future studies that rely on outdoor algae cultivation for feedstock production and allow for time resolved results for future techno-economic and life cycle assessments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Thermal modeling of three lakes within the continuous permafrost zone in Alaska using the LAKE 2.0 model

Abstract. Lakes in the Arctic are important reservoirs of heat with much lower albedo in summer and greater absorption of solar radiation than surrounding tundra vegetation. In the winter, lakes that do not freeze to their bed have a mean annual bed temperature >0 ∘C in an otherwise frozen landscape. Under climate warming scenarios, we expect Arctic lakes to accelerate thawing of underlying permafrost due to warming water temperatures in the summer and winter. Previous studies of Arctic lakes have focused on ice cover and thickness, the ice decay process, catchment hydrology, lake water balance, and eddy covariance measurements, but little work has been done in the Arctic to model lake heat balance. We applied the LAKE 2.0 model to simulate water temperatures in three Arctic lakes in northern Alaska over several years and tested the sensitivity of the model to several perturbations of input meteorological variables (precipitation, shortwave radiation, and air temperature) and several model parameters (water vertical resolution, sediment vertical resolution, depth of soil column, and temporal resolution). The LAKE 2.0 model is a one-dimensional model that explicitly solves vertical profiles of water state variables on a grid. We used a combination of meteorological data from local and remote weather stations, as well as data derived from remote sensing, to drive the model. We validated modeled water temperatures with data of observed lake water temperatures at several depths over several years for each lake. Our validation of the LAKE 2.0 model is a necessary step toward modeling changes in Arctic lake ice regimes, lake heat balance, and thermal interactions with permafrost. The sensitivity analysis shows us that lake water temperature is not highly sensitive to small changes in air temperature or precipitation, while changes in shortwave radiation and large changes in precipitation produced larger effects. Snow depth and lake ice strongly affect water temperatures during the frozen season, which dominates the annual thermal regime of Arctic lakes. These findings suggest that reductions in lake ice thickness and duration could lead to more heat storage by lakes and enhanced permafrost degradation.

Clark, Jason A. (ORCID:0000000248105261)↗

Phenology of Photosynthesis in Winter‐Dormant Temperate and Boreal Forests: Long‐Term Observations From Flux Towers and Quantitative Evaluation of Phenology Models

Abstract We examined the seasonality of photosynthesis in 46 evergreen needleleaf (evergreen needleleaf forests (ENF)) and deciduous broadleaf (deciduous broadleaf forests (DBF)) forests across North America and Eurasia. We quantified the onset and end (Start GPP and End GPP ) of photosynthesis in spring and autumn based on the response of net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 to sunlight. To test the hypothesis that snowmelt is required for photosynthesis to begin, these were compared with end of snowmelt derived from soil temperature. ENF forests achieved 10% of summer photosynthetic capacity ∼3 weeks before end of snowmelt, while DBF forests achieved that capacity ∼4 weeks afterward. DBF forests increased photosynthetic capacity in spring faster (1.95% d −1 ) than ENF (1.10% d −1 ), and their active season length (End GPP –Start GPP ) was ∼50 days shorter. We hypothesized that warming has influenced timing of the photosynthesis season. We found minimal evidence for long‐term change in Start GPP , End GPP , or air temperature, but their interannual anomalies were significantly correlated. Warmer weather was associated with earlier Start GPP (1.3–2.5 days °C −1 ) or later End GPP (1.5–1.8 days °C −1 , depending on forest type and month). Finally, we tested whether existing phenological models could predict Start GPP and End GPP . For ENF forests, air temperature‐ and daylength‐based models provided best predictions for Start GPP , while a chilling‐degree‐day model was best for End GPP . The root mean square errors (RMSE) between predicted and observed Start GPP and End GPP were 11.7 and 11.3 days, respectively. For DBF forests, temperature‐ and daylength‐based models yielded the best results (RMSE 6.3 and 10.5 days).

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

The Spatial and Temporal Variability of the Clear Convective Boundary Layer at the ARM SGP Supersite

The convective boundary layer (CBL), also known as the mixing layer, constitutes the critical lower segment of the atmosphere that significantly influences daily human activities. The growing demand for precise weather forecasts is driven by the requirements of agriculture, transportation, and routine societal functions. Here, to enhance understanding of the CBL, this study investigates the spatiotemporal variability in the CBL and its controlling factors using four-year Doppler lidar, surface flux, and profiling measurements at five ARM Southern Great Plains sites within a 100 km radius. This investigation utilizes data collected exclusively under clear-sky conditions or scattered low-cloud conditions. Results reveal significant spatial differences in CBL evolutions. Daily mixing layer heights (MLHs) vary up to 1 km (30% of the mean) in late afternoon. There is a clear east–west contrast: western sites (C1, E32, E37) exhibit higher summer MLH (1.9–2.1 km) and vertical velocity variances (1.0–1.2 m 2 s −2 ) than eastern sites (1.6–1.8 km), reversing in winter. Temporally, the MLH peaks at 70% of the sunrise–sunset interval, the lagging heat flux (HF) peaks at 50%; and the seasonal MLH maxima lag the HF by approximately one month, influenced by nighttime PBL (planetary boundary layer) properties. The HF and lower tropospheric stability are the main factors of influence for the CBL, but site-specific dependencies highlight the critical roles of local factors, underscoring the need for including them in CBL modeling.

ARM SGP site↗

Exploring Sources of Surface Bias in HRRR Using New York State Mesonet

In recent years, there has been increasing demand for applications of short-term forecasting of renewable energy potential and assessments of the likelihood of extreme weather events using the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model. Examining the biases in the newest version of HRRR is necessary to promote further model development. Using data from one of the most comprehensive and dense monitoring networks, New York State Mesonet (NYSM), we evaluate the HRRR version 3 meteorological fields for an entire year. In this work, the land-atmosphere-cloud coupling system is evaluated as an integrated whole. We investigate the physical processes influencing the soil hydrological balance and the thermodynamic interactions, from surface fluxes up to the level of boundary layer convection from both temporal (seasonal and diurnal) and spatial perspectives. Results show that the model 2 m temperature and humidity biases are seasonally dependent, with warm and dry bias present during the warm season, and an extreme nocturnal cold bias in winter. The summer warm bias includes both a land-surface-induced bias and a cloud-induced bias. Inaccurate representation of energy partition and soil hydrological process across different land use types as well as a hydrological bias in describing spring snowmelt are identified as the main source of the land-surface-induced bias. A feedback loop linking cloud presence, flux changes, and temperature contributes to the cloud-induced bias. The positive solar radiation bias increases from clear sky to overcast sky conditions. The most significant bias occurs during overcast and thick cloud conditions associated with frontal passage and thunderstorms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning–Based Detection of Weather Fronts and Associated Extreme Precipitation in Historical and Future Climates

Extreme precipitation events, including those associated with weather fronts, have wide-ranging impacts across the world. Here we use a deep learning algorithm to identify weather fronts in high resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS), and evaluate the results using observational and reanalysis products. We further compare results between CESM simulations using present-day and future climate forcing, to study how these features might change with climate change. We find that detected front frequencies in CESM have seasonally varying spatial patterns and responses to climate change and are found to be associated with modeled changes in large scale circulation such as the jet stream. We also associate the detected fronts with precipitation and find that total and extreme frontal precipitation mostly decreases with climate change, with some seasonal and regional differences. Here, decreases in Northern Hemisphere summer frontal precipitation are largely driven by changes in the frequency of different front types, especially cold and stationary fronts. On the other hand, Northern Hemisphere winter exhibits some regional increases in frontal precipitation that are largely driven by changes in frontal precipitation intensity. While CONUS mean and extreme precipitation generally increase during all seasons in these climate change simulations, the likelihood of frontal extreme precipitation decreases, demonstrating that extreme precipitation has seasonally varying sources and mechanisms that will continue to evolve with climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Two Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns are Associated with Short-Duration Dry Spells in the Northeastern United States

Large-scale meteorological pattern (LSMP)–based analysis is used in a novel way to understand meteorological conditions before and during short-duration dry spells over the northeastern United States. These LSMPs are useful to assess models and select better-performing models for future projections. Dry-spell events are identified from histograms of consecutive dry days below a daily precipitation threshold. Events lasting 12 days or longer, which correspond to ~10% of dry-spell events, are examined. The 500-hPa stream-function anomaly fields for the first 12 days of each event are time averaged, and k -means clustering is applied to isolate the dry-spell-related LSMPs. The first cluster has a strong low pressure anomaly over the Atlantic Ocean, southeast of the region, and is more common in winter and spring. The second cluster has strong high pressure over east-central North America and is most common during autumn. Over the region, both clusters have negative specific humidity anomalies, negative integrated vapor transport from the north, and subsidence associated with a midlatitude jet stream dipole structure that reinforces upper-level convergence. Subsidence is supported by cold-air advection in the first cluster and the location on the east side of the lower-level high pressure in the second cluster. Extratropical cyclone storm tracks are generally shifted southward of the region during the dry spells. Individual events lie on a continuum between two distinct clusters. These clusters have similar local, but different remote, properties. Although dry spells occur with greater frequency during drought months, most dry spells occur during nondrought months. Significance Statement: This study examines the large-scale weather patterns and meteorological conditions associated with dry-spell events lasting at least 2 weeks while affecting the northeastern United States. A statistical approach groups events together on the basis of similar atmospheric features. We find two distinct sets of patterns that we call large-scale meteorological patterns. These patterns reduce moisture, foster localized sinking, and shift the storm track southward along the Atlantic seaboard, all of which reduce precipitation. Besides greater understanding, knowing the meteorological patterns during short-term dryness in the region provides an important tool to assess how well atmospheric models reproduce these specific patterns. More dry spells occur in non-drought months than in drought months, which means that dry spells can occur without preexisting drought conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Automated Generation of Weather and Climate Analysis Products

Wind roses are an important part to site operations as they depict the wind speed and direction percentage over a time period. In this project, I automated the production of wind roses for SRS meteorological towers. I developed a script to sequence through the dataset by period and create a wind rose for each of those period sets. Graphics were generated for every 4-hour period of the day, for each of the 4 heights of the instruments, for every half of each month. A 10-year climatological period consisted of wind speed and directions measurements at 15-minute intervals. We used the years 2014-2024 as the wind instruments on the tower were upgraded to sonic anemometers in early 2014. I then compared these wind roses to those from a previous study done in 2003 to analyze the differences and similarities in the wind patterns. The wind roses are also used to understand environmental transport conditions at SRS. When comparing the different heights of the anemometers to the 2003 report, there is a similarity in the fact that the direction is relatively the same across the levels, with the wind speeds increasing as you get higher in the air. When comparing the season of our graphs against the 2003 report, we noticed that the winter and summer months appear to have very similar wind directions. However, in the spring we noticed that there were more southerly winds compared to the 2003 report which had more westerly winds. Finally, in the fall months, we noticed that there was a higher percentage of northeasterly winds, while the 2003 report showed more southeasterly winds. We can use these summaries to estimate the directional dependence of dose that the surrounding areas receive throughout the year according to time of day.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Cabin Thermal Management Analysis for SuperTruck II Next-Generation Hybrid Electric Truck Design

In this article, we present a multistage, coupled thermal management simulation approach, informed by physical testing where available, to aid design decisions for PACCAR's SuperTruck II hybrid truck cabin concept. Focus areas include cabin insulation, battery sizing, and sleeper curtain position, as well as heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) component and accessory configurations, to maintain or improve thermal comfort while saving energy. The authors analyzed weather data and determined the national vehicle miles traveled weighted temperature and solar conditions for long-haul trucks. Example weather day profiles were selected to approximate the 5th and 95th percentile weighted conditions. A daylong drive cycle was developed to impose appropriate external wind conditions during rest and driving periods. Using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's vehicle HVAC modeling and simulation tool VTCab, HVAC load design trade-off studies for the new truck geometry concept were completed. Parameters analyzed included effects of paint color, insulation, glass transmissivity, and curtain location. Simulation results helped with early design material selections for efficient cabin climate control. A detailed three-dimensional computer-aided engineering (CAE), computational fluid dynamics (CFD), radiation, and human physiology co-simulation, referred to in this article as CAE Thermal-CFD, was used to evaluate thermal comfort and energy impacts of diffuser configurations and air supply settings in driving and hoteling modes. Analysis revealed that it is more difficult to heat the cabin in hoteling mode during the winter than to cool the space in the summer. This seasonal load profile drives the requirement of additional energy storage for heating comfort. To determine the battery capacity requirement, multiday HVAC operation drive cycle simulations were then completed, showing that a 15-kWh battery would be required for HVAC operation during hoteling. Results helped reduce cabin thermal loads, determine component sizing requirements, and improve occupant comfort to save fuel and contribute to the economic viability of the hybrid system.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Implementation of an Orographic Drag Scheme Considering Orographic Anisotropy in All Flow Directions in the Earth System Model CAS‐ESM 2.0

Abstract A reasonable representation of orographic anisotropy in earth system models is vital for improving weather and climate modeling. In this study, we implement the orographic drag scheme, including 3‐D orographic anisotropy (3D‐AFD), into the Chinese Academy of Sciences Earth System Model version 2 (CAS‐ESM 2.0). Three groups of simulations named sensitivity run, medium‐range forecast, and seasonal forecast respectively are conducted using the updated CAS‐ESM model and validated against station observation and reanalysis data. These simulations are run using the three schemes—3D‐AFD scheme, the 3D orographic anisotropy scheme for the eight‐direction (3D‐8x), and the 2D isotropic scheme (2D)—to compare their performance in CAS‐ESM 2.0. Sensitivity runs show that the 3D‐AFD provide more continuous transition of calculated drag as function of wind direction than the 3D‐8x, while the drag calculated using the 2D scheme show no variation with change of wind direction. Enhanced drag in the medium range and seasonal forecast using the updated CAS‐ESM alleviates part of the winter wind speed bias over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the cold bias over TP and the Siberian polar region. It is shown that the 3D‐AFD scheme alleviates more bias than that of the 3D‐8x scheme (by wind speed reduction of 1 ∼ 2 m/s and temperature of 1 ∼ 2 K) especially in the seasonal forecast. The results suggest that reasonable representation of the orographic anisotropy is important in climate modeling.

Xie, Jinbo↗

Seasonal and Geographical Variations in Fundamental Weather Patterns during Extreme Precipitation as Identified from Omega Equation Forcing

Abstract We investigate the large-scale weather patterns during extreme precipitation (PEx) events over the conterminous United States (CONUS) by applying a version of the quasigeostrophic (QG) omega equation. This work aims to develop a climatology of the weather patterns most related to PEx events during current climate. Extreme events are examined for each of seven regions defined by consistent annual cycles of precipitation and spanning the CONUS. For the CONUS we train several self-organizing maps (SOM) on a pressure–time series of vertical velocity from each of the advective forcing terms in the QG omega equation for each extreme event. The unsupervised learning of the SOM allows us to identify the most descriptive set of nine patterns in vertical velocity associated with precipitation extremes. This method finds multiple frontal- and cyclone-driven patterns while grouping primarily convective events into one pattern. Frontal events include a synoptic pattern consistent with West Coast atmospheric river events as well as pattern groups linked to developing and to mature (“occluded”) frontal cyclones. The primary patterns found during PEx events vary seasonally and geographically. Frontal cyclone patterns are most common during PEx events during summer in the part of the Great Plains and during winter for the Northeast, Southeast, Pacific Northwest, and Southwest. Convection is the most common pattern during summer in all regions. Except in the Southeast, the annual cycles of monthly number of PEx events and average precipitation match well, partially validating our choice of regions to aggregate PEx events.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Multi–year analysis of rain–snow levels at Marquette, Michigan

This study uses observations from a ground-based instrument suite to investigate the rain-snow level in stratiform rainfall from January 2014 to April 2020 in the Upper Great Lakes Region. The height above the surface where ice melts to rain, the rain-snow level (RSL), influences microphysical assumptions in remote sensing precipitation retrievals and the ability of space-based radar to discriminate surface precipitation phase because of ground clutter. The instrument suite is installed at the Marquette, MI (MQT) National Weather Service station adjacent to Lake Superior. Rain events and the RSL are studied through a ground-based vertically profiling radar (Micro Rain Radar), a custom NASA-developed video disdrometer (Precipitation Imaging Package), and reanalyses products from ECMWF ERA5 and NASA MERRA-2. Further, distinct macro and micro physical characteristics are observed in precipitation events with shallow RSL ( < 1.8 km above ground level [AGL]) and intermediate RSL ( > 1.8 km AGL). Intermediate RSL correspond to rain events with relatively higher rain rates and a higher concentration of small drops in the drop size distributions (DSDs). Shallow RSL DSDs contain relatively higher concentrations of large drops with lower fall speeds suggesting that partially melted snowflakes may be reaching the surface. Reflectivity-rain-rate relationships are also impacted by microphysical differences associated with RSL regimes. Radar-detected RSL agree with reanalysis-derived melt levels- especially at wet-bulb isotherms of 0.5°C and 1°C. Seasonal differences such as shallow rain-snow levels in winter, fall, and spring have subsequent implications for satellite detectability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗