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DOE OSTI2024

Escape Ratio Contributes More Than Fluorescence Yield to SIF-GPP Relationship Over Crops and Rainforest

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is an effective indicator to track the gross primary productivity (GPP). However, there is still a lack of a clear understanding for the contribution of physiological and structural factors to the SIF–GPP relationship at the canopy scale. To quantify the influence of different SIF components, particularly the photon escape ratio ($f$ esc ) and fluorescence yield (Φ F ), on the SIF–GPP relationship, this study evaluated the performance of various vegetation indices (VIs), SIF components, light use efficiency (LUE), and GPP over two typical biomes (crops and rainforest), using a range of satellite remote sensing products. In August of each year from 2018 to 2020, both SIF and GPP over United States (U.S.) Corn Belt are higher than those over the Amazon rainforest, attributed to the consistent pattern of higher $f$ esc and LUE over crops than over rainforest, as well as Φ F . Furthermore, the structural signals represented by $f$ esc (R = 0.41–0.64) can better capture the LUE variations than Φ F (R = 0.10–0.30) for each biome. In conclusion, this study highlights that $f$ esc , determined by canopy structure, has great potential to capture LUE and GPP changes within and across biomes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2016

Incorporating Yearly Derived Winter Wheat Maps Into Winter Wheat Yield Forecasting Model

Wheat is one of the most important cereal crops in the world. Timely and accurate forecast of wheat yield and production at global scale is vital in implementing food security policy. Becker-Reshef et al. (2010) developed a generalized empirical model for forecasting winter wheat production using remote sensing data and official statistics. This model was implemented using static wheat maps. In this paper, we analyze the impact of incorporating yearly wheat masks into the forecasting model. We propose a new approach of producing in season winter wheat maps exploiting satellite data and official statistics on crop area only. Validation on independent data showed that the proposed approach reached 6% to 23% of omission error and 10% to 16% of commission error when mapping winter wheat 2-3 months before harvest. In general, we found a limited impact of using yearly winter wheat masks over a static mask for the study regions.

MODIS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integration of plant and microbial oil processing at oilcane biorefineries for more sustainable biofuel production

Oilcane—an oil-accumulating crop engineered from sugarcane—and microbial oil have the potential to improve renewable oil production and help meet the expected demand for bioderived oleochemicals and fuels. To assess the potential synergies of processing both plant and microbial oils, the economic and environmental implications of integrating microbial oil production at oilcane and sugarcane biorefineries were characterized. Due to decreased crop yields that lead to higher simulated feedstock prices and lower biorefinery capacities, current oilcane prototypes result in higher costs and carbon intensities than microbial oil from sugarcane. To inform oilcane feedstock development, we calculated the required biomass yields (as a function of oil content) for oilcane to achieve financial parity with sugarcane. At 10 dw% oil, oilcane can sustain up to 30% less yield than sugarcane and still be more profitable in all simulated scenarios. Assuming continued improvements in microbial oil production from cane juice, achieving this target results in a minimum biodiesel selling price of 1.34 [0.90, 1.85] USD∙L –1 (presented as median [5th, 95th] percentiles), a carbon intensity of 0.51 [0.47, 0.55] kg CO 2 e L –1 , and a total biodiesel yield of 2140 [1870, 2410] L ha –1 year –1 . Compared to biofuel production from soybean, this outcome is equivalent to 3.0–3.9 as much biofuel per hectare of land and a 57%–63% reduction in carbon intensity. While only 20% of simulated scenarios fell within the market price range of biodiesel (0.45–1.11 USD∙L –1 ), if the oilcane biomass yield would improve to 25.6 DMT∙ha –1 ∙y –1 (an equivalent yield to sugarcane) 87% of evaluated scenarios would have a minimum biodiesel selling price within or below the market price range.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS2023

Heat Stress to Jeopardize Crop Production in the US Corn Belt Based on Downscaled CMIP5 Projections

CONTEXT Global food security faces increasing challenges from the changing climate. Changes of agricultural output from some of the most productive regions such as the US Corn Belt can largely affect the world's food market. Developing predictive understanding of the agricultural risk of climate change and potential mitigation strategies is critical for the global food security. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study is to assess the responses of maize and soybean yield to projected climate changes in the Corn Belt, identify the shifting environment stressors on crop yield, and tackle potential climate adaptation strategies. METHODS We drive a process-based model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, with high-resolution statistically downscaled and bias-corrected historical and future climates from ten CMIP5 models in the MACA-2 database. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The multi-model ensemble mean suggests a 12% decrease of maize yield by mid-century and 40% by late century, with a high degree of model consensus in the direction of changes; for individual models, the projected decrease of maize yield by late century ranges from <5% to over 80%, with the worst crop outcome corresponding to the most sensitive climate models. Soybean yield is projected to increase by midcentury with a high degree of model consensus, but such consensus is lost by late century as some projections shift to significant decreases. Crop yield in the Corn Belt is currently limited by water stress, but is projected to be increasingly limited by heat stress as well after the midcentury. The mounting heat stress will drive the most productive zone for maize to shift from central to northern part of the Corn Belt, but the projected increase in the northern states cannot fully compensate for the decrease in the south, causing the total production to decrease if agricultural practice stays the same. Earlier planting can alleviate only a small fraction of the heat-induced crop loss in a warmer climate. Climate change will (at least partially) offset the yield boost caused by agricultural technology and intensification. SIGNIFICANCE This study advances our predictive understanding of crop yield responses to climate change, and suggests that a multitude of strategies will be needed to address the climate change challenges for the U.S. agriculture.

Crop yield↗

DOE OSTI2021

Response to “how robust are reductions in modeled estimates from GTAP-BIO of the indirect land use change induced by conventional biofuels?”

Malins et al. (2020) recently published "How robust are reductions in modeled estimates from GTAP-BIO of the indirect land use change induced by conventional biofuels?", provided their narrative from the model improvements in GTAP-BIO over time, made several critical points regarding this model, and argued that the implemented improvements in this model tended to decrease Induce Land Use Changes (ILUC) emissions. Furthermore, they also provided several critical points regarding the Carbon Calculator for Land Use Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB) emissions model. In this response to Malins et al. we address these critiques point-by-point by providing our detailed responses to key issues: 1) the GTAP-BIO model and its improvements over time; 2) the inclusion of cropland pasture in the model; 3) the observed land use changes in the US that have been the bases for improvements in GTAP-BIO model, 4) the time trends in corn price and yield to challenge the concept of the yield to price response; 5) some sources of land intensification in crop production; 6) the FAO notifications with respect to the comparison between harvested area and arable land; and 7) the GTAP-BIO results for multiple cropping. We also provided responses to Malins et al. critical points regarding the CCLUB emissions model. We hope that this response letter will open more constructive discussion among the LUC modeling community to remain focused on the big picture regarding agriculture's role as a very effective GHG mitigation tool that can shape the new policies to govern the production and consumption of biofuels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS2017

Intercomparison of Soil Moisture, Evaporative Stress, and Vegetation Indices for Estimating Corn and Soybean Yields Over the U.S.

This paper presents an intercomparative study of 12 operationally produced large-scale datasets describing soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), and or vegetation characteristics within agricultural regions of the contiguous United States (CONUS). These datasets have been developed using a variety of techniques, including, hydrologic modeling, satellite-based retrievals, data assimilation, and survey in-field data collection. The objectives are to assess the relative utility of each dataset for monitoring crop yield variability, to quantitatively assess their capacity for predicting end-of-season corn and soybean yields, and to examine the evolution of the yield-index correlations during the growing season. This analysis is unique both with regards to the number and variety of examined yield predictor datasets and the detailed assessment of the water availability timing on the end-of-season crop production during the growing season. Correlation results indicate that over CONUS, at state-level soil moisture and ET indices can provide better information for forecasting corn and soybean yields than vegetation-based indices such as normalized difference vegetation index. The strength of correlation with corn and soybean yields strongly depends on the interannual variability in yield measured at a given location. In this case study, some of the remotely derived datasets examined provide skill comparable to that of in situ field survey-based data further demonstrating the utility of these remote sensing-based approaches for estimating crop yield.

evapotranspiration↗

DOE OSTI2026

Feedstock Choices for Advancing the Bioeconomy in the US and Policy Implications

Biomass feedstocks will be critical for scaling up the bioeconomy in the United States to meet multiple demands for biofuels, sustainable aviation fuel, bioproducts, and biochemicals. There is a wide range of choices of feedstocks, including a variety of dedicated energy crops and crop residues. There are substantial differences in the yields, costs of production, and carbon intensity of these feedstocks and for each feedstock across locations. These feedstocks also differ in the trade-offs they offer among multiple environmental impacts. We discuss the economic factors that will influence the production of these feedstocks and the implications of alternative biofuel and low-carbon policies for the mix of feedstocks that will be incentivized.

Khanna, Madhu (ORCID:0000000349944451)↗

NASA NTRS1977

On the transfer of remote sensing technology to an operational data system

Data processing techniques for the transfer of remote sensing technology to an operational data system are evaluated. The study is aimed at developing a scheme for the improvement of the quantifying cost/performance ratio, noting the timeliness of the results, the ease of system development, system operating costs, and accuracy. The method is applicable to the Production Area and Yield Estimation System (PAYES) and the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE).

Tarbet, J. D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Potential of a Plant Gas Exchange Mechanistic Model to Predict Plant Transpiration in Veggie on ISS

Plants are an essential part of long-duration space travel, as they enable food production and contribute to air revitalization through photosynthesis, and water recycling through transpiration. Understanding their growth mechanisms is essential to use them to sustain human life in space. In particular, gas exchange – e.g., CO2 absorption and water transpiration – are modified in microgravity because of the lack of buoyancy-driven convection, and in the long run, this could result in impaired plant growth. Water absorbed by the plants mainly depends on their size and on environmental conditions (air temperature, humidity and ventilation), but in microgravity watering plants is a delicate operation – too much water results in flooded roots and too little water leads in a few hours to wilted plants. This is regularly experienced in the Veggie system on ISS, which enables small-scale food production in microgravity since 2014. This presentation explores how a mechanistic model of plant gas exchange can help predict plant transpiration in Veggie and thus better predict daily watering. For each plant, inputs on canopy leaf area (acquired with daily photos), air temperature and relative humidity in the plant compartment, as well as airspeed at the top of its canopy enable accurate predictions of transpiration in microgravity. This brings a better understanding of water movement through the plant in microgravity in relation to ventilation and plant size and would result in easier management of plant watering in Veggie. Ultimately, this work could be applied to any space crop production in microgravity and be used for water management and yield predictions. This work was funded by NASA Space Biology through NASA postdoctoral program / USRA.

Lucie Poulet↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Potential of a Plant Gas Exchange Mechanistic Model to Predict Plant Transpiration in Veggie on ISS

Lucie Poulet↗

DOE OSTI2021

Early season prediction of within-field crop yield variability by assimilating CubeSat data into a crop model

Accurate early season predictions of crop yield at the within-field scale can be used to address a range of crop production, management, and precision agricultural challenges. While the remote sensing of within-field insights has been a research goal for many years, it is only recently that observations with the required spatio-temporal resolutions, together with efficient assimilation methods to integrate these into modeling frameworks, have become available to advance yield prediction efforts. Here we explore a yield prediction approach that combines daily high-resolution CubeSat imagery with the APSIM crop model. The approach employs APSIM to train a linear regression that relates simulated yield to simulated leaf area index (LAI). That relationship is then used to identify the optimal regression date at which the LAI provides the best prediction of yield: in this case, approximately 14 weeks prior to harvest. Instead of applying the regression on satellite imagery that is coincident, or closest to, the regression date, our method implements a particle filter that integrates CubeSat-based LAI into APSIM to provide end-of-season high-resolution (3 m) yield maps weeks before the optimal regression date. The approach is demonstrated on a rainfed maize field located in Nebraska, USA, where suitable collections of both imagery and in-situ data were available for assessment. The procedure does not require in-field data to calibrate the regression model, with results showing that even with a single assimilation step, it is possible to provide yield estimates with good accuracy up to 21 days before the optimal regression date. Yield spatial variability was reproduced reasonably well, with a strong correlation to independently collected measurements (R 2 = 0.73 and rRMSE = 12%). When the field averaged yield was compared, our approach reduced yield prediction error from 1 Mg/ha (control case based on a calibrated APSIM model), to 0.5 Mg/ha (using satellite imagery alone), and then to 0.2 Mg/ha (results with assimilation up to three weeks prior to the optimal regression date). Such a capacity to provide spatially explicit yield predictions early in the season has considerable potential to enhance digital agricultural goals and improve end-of-season yield predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Remote Sensing-Based Estimation of Advanced Perennial Grass Biomass Yields for Bioenergy

A sustainable bioeconomy would require growing high-yielding bioenergy crops on marginal agricultural areas with minimal inputs. To determine the cost competitiveness and environmental sustainability of such production systems, reliably estimating biomass yield is critical. However, because marginal areas are often small and spread across the landscape, yield estimation using traditional approaches is costly and time-consuming. This paper demonstrates the (1) initial investigation of optical remote sensing for predicting perennial bioenergy grass yields at harvest using a linear regression model with the green normalized difference vegetation index (GNDVI) derived from Sentinel-2 imagery and (2) evaluation of the model’s performance using data from five U.S. Midwest field sites. The linear regression model using midsummer GNDVI predicted yields at harvest with R2 as high as 0.879 and a mean absolute error and root mean squared error as low as 0.539 Mg/ha and 0.616 Mg/ha, respectively, except for the establishment year. Perennial bioenergy grass yields may be predicted 152 days before the harvest date on average, except for the establishment year. The green spectral band showed a greater contribution for predicting yields than the red band, which is indicative of increased chlorophyll content during the early growing season. Although additional testing is warranted, this study showed a great promise for a remote sensing approach for forecasting perennial bioenergy grass yields to support critical economic and logistical decisions of bioeconomy stakeholders.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Building on success in systems design of high yielding low‐input energycanes for marginal lands

Energycane and Miscanthus are highly sustainable and productive perennial grasses that produce a large annual crop of shoot biomass. Theoretical analysis of metabolism has suggested that these crops could be engineered to accumulate 20% of their harvestable biomass as oil. Given their much higher biomass yields than soybean and canola, this would yield several times more oil per acre. This could be converted to biodiesel or sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by well‐established technologies. Energycane is well suited to the southeast quarter of the contiguous 48 states and Miscanthus to the northeast quarter. The objective of this award was to provide the foundation for converting these crops to oilcanes from DNA constructs and transformation to field trials and pilot plant development of oil extraction. Genetic engineering focused on development and implementation of improved constructs to increase oil levels, and increased photosynthesis to support the additional energy needed for oil production. The specific progress in each of our subtasks follows together with the products arising.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Estimating soybean yields from high-temporal-resolution multi-source data using deep learning

Accurate and timely crop yield prediction is crucial for ensuring food security and maintaining stable agricultural markets. In recent years, there has been a surge in interest in leveraging high-temporal-resolution, multi-source data for effective crop growth monitoring and yield estimation. A notable challenge arises from the difficulty in capturing the intricate interactions between variables across different time steps within these high-temporal-resolution time series datasets. This complexity hinders the reliable extraction of yield information from voluminous and often noisy datasets, especially during periods of extreme weather events. Here, in this study, we propose an Attention and Graph Isomorphism Network-enhanced Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory network (AGB-LSTM) for estimating county-level soybean yield in the United States. This model integrates a diverse set of remote sensing data, including Near-Infrared Reflectance of Vegetation (NIRv), Sun-Induced chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF), and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), along with environmental covariates. The AGB-LSTM effectively leverages information related to crop yield from high-temporal-resolution time series data (5-days), achieving an accuracy of R²= 0.67 and rRMSE = 14.46%. This approach significantly outperforms traditional machine learning methods such as Random Forest (RF) (R²= 0.52, rRMSE = 17.36%) and Bi-LSTM (R²= 0.58, rRMSE = 16.17%). Sensitivity experiments with different time steps and ranges demonstrated that our model could accurately and stably predict yields 1 to 2 months before harvest. Moreover, data with a finer temporal resolution consistently improved prediction performance, resulting in an approximately 20% increase in and an approximately 20% decrease in rRMSE compared to using monthly composites. We also evaluated the robustness of the model under extreme climate events and observed strong performance (R²= 0.50, rRMSE = 21.32%). Finally, yield mapping for major soybean-producing regions in North America in 2023 revealed spatial patterns that closely matched USDA yield reports. Our findings suggest that the AGB-LSTM model is a promising and effective method for estimating yield and has notable potential for global crop yield forecasting.

Deep learning↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cropland expansion in the United States produces marginal yields at high costs to wildlife

Recent expansion of croplands in the United States has caused widespread conversion of grasslands and other ecosystems with largely unknown consequences for agricultural production and the environment. Here we assess annual land use change 2008–16 and its impacts on crop yields and wildlife habitat. We find that croplands have expanded at a rate of over one million acres per year, and that 69.5% of new cropland areas produced yields below the national average, with a mean yield deficit of 6.5%. Observed conversion infringed upon high-quality habitat that, relative to unconverted land, had provided over three times higher milkweed stem densities in the Monarch butterfly Midwest summer breeding range and 37% more nesting opportunities per acre for waterfowl in the Prairie Pothole Region of the Northern Great Plains. Our findings demonstrate a pervasive pattern of encroachment into areas that are increasingly marginal for production, but highly significant for wildlife, and suggest that such tradeoffs may be further amplified by future cropland expansion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

RGB Imaging as a Tool to Monitor Indoor Crop Plant Production

Future crop production in space will require robust monitoring technologies that can optimize crop yield, reduce waste, and generate data for an automated plant growth design. Imaging has been suggested as a tool for measuring plant health, yet imaging systems for indoor crops have not been tested in spaceflight. Fortunately, RGB images of crop plants growing inside the Advanced Plant Habitat (APH) aboard the ISS have already been captured. In ground-based studies, the Kennedy Space Center (NASA, KSC) is collaborating with the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA ARS) to develop an imaging system for monitoring indoor crop plant health. In one study, we applied a drought stress to ‘Dragoon’ lettuce plants over a period of 14 days and captured RGB images in 24 h increments. Images were analyzed, and by applying a difference index, the images were able to be used to detect the drought stress in lettuce. This difference index was then applied to RGB images collected inside the APH ground unit for a pre-flight experiment growing ‘Outredgous’ lettuce under different substrate moisture conditions, and results showed that the RGB camera was capable of detecting drought stress inside the spaceflight plant growth hardware. These results suggest that RGB cameras already deployed to space may offer valuable information for monitoring plant production in extraterrestrial environments. This research was supported by NASA’s space biology program.

Rachel Tucker↗

NASA NTRS2010

Agricultural Productivity Forecasts for Improved Drought Monitoring

Water stresses on agricultural crops during critical phases of crop phenology (such as grain filling) has higher impact on the eventual yield than at other times of crop growth. Therefore farmers are more concerned about water stresses in the context of crop phenology than the meteorological droughts. However the drought estimates currently produced do not account for the crop phenology. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have developed a drought monitoring decision support tool: The U.S. Drought Monitor, which currently uses meteorological droughts to delineate and categorize drought severity. Output from the Drought Monitor is used by the States to make disaster declarations. More importantly, USDA uses the Drought Monitor to make estimates of crop yield to help the commodities market. Accurate estimation of corn yield is especially critical given the recent trend towards diversion of corn to produce ethanol. Ethanol is fast becoming a standard 10% ethanol additive to petroleum products, the largest traded commodity. Thus the impact of large-scale drought will have dramatic impact on the petroleum prices as well as on food prices. USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as a focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. WAOB depends on Drought Monitor and has emphatically stated that accurate and timely data are needed in operational agrometeorological services to generate reliable projections for agricultural decision makers. Thus, improvements in the prediction of drought will reflect in early and accurate assessment of crop yields, which in turn will improve commodity projections. We have developed a drought assessment tool, which accounts for the water stress in the context of crop phenology. The crop modeling component is done using various crop modules within Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). DSSAT is an agricultural crop simulation system, which integrates the effects of soil, crop phenotype, weather, and management options. It has been in use for more than 15 years by researchers, growers and has become a de-facto standard in crop modeling communities spanning over 100 countries. The meteorological forcings to DSSAT are provided by NASA s National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) datasets. NLDAS is a framework that incorporates atmospheric forcing and land parameter values along with land surface models to diagnose and predict the state of the land surface.

Limaye, Ashutosh↗

NASA NTRS2023

Future Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Agricultural Yields, Production, and Market

This study provides estimates of climate change impacts on U.S. agricultural yields and the agricultural economy through the end of the 21st century, utilizing multiple climate scenarios. Results from a process-based crop model project future increases in wheat, grassland, and soybean yield due to climate change and atmospheric CO2 change; corn and sorghum show more muted responses. Results using yields from econometric models show less positive results. Both the econometric and process-based models tend to show more positive yields by the end of the century than several other similar studies. Using the process-based model to provide future yield estimates to an integrated agricultural sector model, the welfare gain is roughly $16B/year (2019 USD) for domestic producers and $6.2B/year for international trade, but domestic consumers lose $10.6B/year, resulting in a total welfare gain of $11.7B/year. When yield projections for major crops are drawn instead from econometric models, total welfare losses of more than $28B/year arise. Simulations using the process-based model as input to the agricultural sector model show large future production increases for soybean, wheat, and sorghum and large price reductions for corn and wheat. The most important factors are those about economic growth, flooding, international trade, and the type of yield model used. Somewhat less, but not insignificant factors include adaptation, livestock productivity, and damages from surface ozone, waterlogging, and pests and diseases.

Agricultural sector↗