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At least 163 records · Page 9

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NASA NTRS2016

Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

Climate impacts↗

NASA NTRS2020

A Systematic Review of Local to Regional Yield Forecasting Approaches and Frequently Used Data Resources

Forecasting crop yields, or providing an expectation of ex-ante harvest amounts, is highly relevant to the whole agricultural production chain. Farmers can adapt their management, traders or insurers their pricing schemes, suppliers their stocks, logistic companies their routes, national authorities their food balance sheets to guide import or export and, finally, international aid organizations can mobilize reliefs. Evidence has grown in the literature that such forecasts with a meaningful lead time are possible on various geographic scales and for a broad range of crops. Here, we present a systematic review of the methods applied in end-of-season yield forecasting and three frequently used data sources: weather data, satellite data and crop masks. Our literature database comprises 362 studies (2004–2019) which were evaluated regarding methods, crops, regions, data sources, lead time and performance. Moreover, we present 24 sources of real-time and predictive weather data, 21 sources of remote sensing data and 16 crop masks. Yield forecasting in our literature sample has been performed for 44 crops in 71 countries, also including many non-staple crops, but with an apparent bias in regions and crops. Forecasting performance depends on various factors, including crop, region, method, lead time to harvest and input diversity. Our systematic review supports a broader application of locally successful approaches at larger scales by providing a comprehensive, accessible compendium of necessary information for yield forecasting. We discuss improvement potentials with respect to methodological approaches and available data sources. We additionally suggest standardization procedures for future forecasting studies and encourage studying additional crops and geographic regions. Implications of forecasts for different target groups on different scales and the adaptation towards climate change are also discussed.

Seasonal crop yield forecasting↗

NASA NTRS2022

Compound Heat and Moisture Extreme Impacts on Global Crop Yields Under Climate Change

Extreme heat, drought and moisture excess are increasingly co-occurring within a single growing season, impacting crop yields in global breadbasket regions. In this Review, we synthesize understanding of compound heat and moisture extremes, their impacts on global crop yields and implications for adaptation. Heat and moisture extremes and their impacts become compounded through crop-physiological interactions, heat–moisture couplings in the climate system and crop–atmosphere interactions. Since around 2000, these compound extremes, and hot droughts in particular, have been linked to especially poor harvests (up to 30% yield losses) in regions such as India, Ethiopia, the USA, Europe and Russia. However, in some cases, combinations of crop stresses might generate compensating effects. Compound extremes are projected to increase in frequency and amplitude in the future, but, owing to the biophysical interdependence among temperature, water and crop physiology, the net yield effects of such future compound extremes remain uncertain. Accordingly, compound extremes will necessitate comprehensive agricultural adaptation strategies geared towards multi-stress resilience, as adaptations that work for single climate stresses could be maladaptive under combined stresses. An integrated understanding of heat and water in soil–plant–atmosphere dynamics is urgently needed to understand risks and suitably adapt cropping systems to compounding climate impacts.

Agroecology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Approximately 15% of Miscanthus yield is lost at current commercial cutting heights in Iowa

Various works have quantitatively characterized the effects of environmental and management factors on Miscanthus x giganteus Greef et Deu (mxg) yield and, therefore, anticipated land requirement per unit production. However, little work has addressed the effects of cutting height, which may significantly contribute to the difference between the standing aboveground biomass at harvest (i.e., biological yield) and harvested yield. This study quantitatively characterized the effect of cutting height using a replicated nitrogen trial of a 5-year-old mxg stand in southeast Iowa and related this information to observations of cutting height in nearby commercial fields. Nitrogen fertilizer did not significantly change the relationship of the stem segment mass to length, and overall, a 1-cm stem segment contributes 0.5% of the total stem biomass within the bottom 44 cm of the stem. This results in an average harvest loss of 15% of the aboveground standing biomass when cutting at 30 cm, typically seen in commercial mxg fields in eastern Iowa. Cutting height should be considered when accurately predicting commercial mxg harvest yields and changes in soil organic carbon in a commercial mxg agroecosystem.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing climate-smart crop performance in arid agrivoltaics systems: effects of photovoltaic shading and soil amendments on tepary bean growth, yield, and associated soil microbiome

As climate change expands the world’s arid and semiarid regions, sustainable systems that integrate food and energy production are becoming increasingly critical. Agrivoltaics—co-locating crops with photovoltaic (PV) panels—offers a dual land-use strategy that mitigates environmental stress by shading crops, conserving soil moisture, and enhancing PV efficiency. While climate-smart crops like the tepary bean ( Phaseolus acutifolius ) are well adapted to heat and drought, little is known about how these crops and their associated soil microbiomes respond to the unique microclimates created by PV shading. This study evaluated tepary bean performance and plant–microbial interactions under PV-shade vs. no shade across three soil amendment treatments at two experimental sites. We assessed plant traits including germination, phenology, biomass, height, as well as yield and bean morphology, alongside shifts in soil microbial composition and functional potential. Plants grown under PV-shade were generally taller, with extended reproductive periods and higher yields: 42% of shaded plants produced beans compared to only 8% under full sun. Shaded plants also produced rounder, higher-quality beans, whereas non-shaded plants yielded flatter, less developed beans. Microbial community composition was more strongly influenced by amendment and site conditions than by shading alone. Key microbial taxa (e.g., Glomeromycetes, Desulfobacterota ) and predicted functions (e.g., denitrification, nitrogen-respiration, sulfate reduction) were associated with differences in plant performance. Finally, combining agrivoltaic systems with targeted soil amendments can enhance crop yield and soil microbial functionality—offering a promising strategy for sustainable agriculture in arid landscapes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Drought Stress on Sorghum bicolor Yield, Deconstruction, and Microbial Conversion Determined in a Feedstocks-to-Fuels Pipeline

Sorghum is an attractive feedstock for biobased fuel and chemical production because it is familiar to farmers, naturally drought tolerant, and versatile as a food, feed, and fuel crop. Although sorghum is a promising feedstock, particularly in regions that experience drought stress, little is known about how drought conditions impact the ease of conversion of sorghum to fuels and products. This study combines agronomic field trials with a high-throughput experimental pipeline to explore the field performance and liquid biofuel (bisabolene) yields resulting from three sorghum types (photosensitive forage sorghum, optimized grain sorghum, and drought-resistant grain sorghum) grown under pre- and postflowering water limitations in two different California locations. Multiple drought treatments are compared to the control, as the timing (preflowering versus postflowering) of drought stress elicits different survival strategies and corresponding impacts on yield and composition. Forage-type sorghum maintained the highest biomass yields across all irrigation conditions and locations. Glucose and xylose yields resulting from ionic liquid pretreatment and enzymatic saccharification were not significantly impacted by irrigation treatments but differed by location and genotype. However, Rhodosporidium toruloides grown on the resulting plant hydrolysates unexpectedly produced higher titers of bisabolene for drought-stressed sorghum samples regardless of genotype.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Influence of loblolly pine anatomical fractions and tree age on oil yield and composition during fast pyrolysis

Fast pyrolysis of woody materials is a technology pathway for producing renewable fuels and chemicals. This is a presentation of isolating needles, bark, and stemwood from a single tree as well as isolating stemwood and whole tree samples from the same species of tree with different ages and pyrolyzing each individually as well as in mixtures. This gives insight into the role of tree anatomical fractions on the resulting intermediate oil product as well as into interactions between these components. The highest carbon content oil (45.1 wt% as received) was produced from a one-to-one mixture of stemwood and needles, followed by the pure stemwood (43.4–43.8 wt% as received), while the lowest oil carbon content was from a one-to-one blend of bark and needles (26.7 wt% as received). The pyrolysis oil yield (combining oil and aqueous where separation occurred) varied from 54 wt% as received (needles) to 72.3 wt% as received (stemwood). When comparing trees of different ages, we find the change in the ratio of the anatomical fractions is a dominant factor in the product composition and yields, while the product composition and yields vary slightly with tree age when only the stemwood is pyrolyzed. Here, in this study, we present the bench-scale pyrolysis, yields, and product characterization of loblolly pine feedstocks (13- vs. 23 year-old, residues, air-classified residues, whole tree, needles, bark, and stemwood).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ultra-fast single-crystal CVD diamonds in the particle time-of-flight (PTOF) detector for low yield burn-history measurements on the NIF (invited)

The Particle Time of Flight (PTOF) diagnostic is a chemical vapor deposition diamond-based detector and is the only diagnostic for measuring nuclear bang times of low yield (<1013) shots on the National Ignition Facility. Recently, a comprehensive study of detector impulse responses revealed certain detectors with very fast and consistent impulse responses with a rise time of <50 ps, enabling low yield burn history measurements. At the current standoff of 50 cm, this measurement is possible with fast 14 MeV neutrons from deuterium–tritium (DT) fusion plasmas. PTOF-inferred DT burn width numbers compare well with widths inferred from the gamma reaction history diagnostic on mid-yield (1013–1015) shots, where both systems are capable of making this measurement. These new capabilities could be extended to 2.5 MeV deuterium–deuterium neutrons from D plasmas and to even lower yield by reducing the detector standoff distance to 10 cm; a design for this is also presented.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unveiling shared genetic regulators of plant architectural and biomass yield traits in the Sorghum Association Panel

Abstract Sorghum is emerging as an ideal genetic model for designing high-biomass bioenergy crops. Biomass yield, a complex trait influenced by various plant architectural characteristics, is typically regulated by numerous genes. This study aimed to dissect the genetic regulators underlying 14 plant architectural traits and 10 biomass yield traits in the Sorghum Association Panel across two growing seasons. We identified 321 associated loci through genome-wide association studies (GWAS), involving 234 264 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). These loci include genes with known associations to biomass traits, such as maturity, dwarfing (Dw), and leafbladeless1, as well as several uncharacterized loci not previously linked to these traits. We also identified 22 pleiotropic loci associated with variation in multiple phenotypes. Three of these loci, located on chromosomes 3 (S03_15463061), 6 (S06_42790178; Dw2), and 9 (S09_57005346; Dw1), exerted significant and consistent effects on multiple traits across both growing seasons. Additionally, we identified three genomic hotspots on chromosomes 6, 7, and 9, each containing multiple SNPs associated with variation in plant architecture and biomass yield traits. Chromosome-wise correlation analyses revealed multiple blocks of positively associated SNPs located near or within the same genomic regions. Finally, genome-wide correlation-based network analysis showed that loci associated with flowering, plant height, leaf traits, plant density, and tiller number per plant were highly interconnected with other genetic loci influencing plant architectural and biomass yield traits. The pyramiding of favorable alleles related to these traits holds promise for enhancing the future development of bioenergy sorghum crops.

Singh, Anuradha (ORCID:0000000197149095)↗

DOE OSTI2024

East Pacific ENSO Offers Early Predictive Signals for Harvest Yields

Abstract Annual wheat yields have steadily risen over the past century, but harvests remain highly variable and dependent on myriad weather conditions during a long growing season. In Kansas, for example, the 2014 crop year brought the lowest average yield in decades at 28 bushels per acre, while in 2016 farmers in the Wheat State, as Kansas is often called, enjoyed a historic high of 57 bushels per acre. It is broadly known that remote forces like El Niño–Southern Oscillation contribute to meteorological outcomes across North America, including in the wheat-growing regions of the U.S. Midwest, but the differential imprints of ENSO phases and flavors have not been well explored as leading indicators for harvest outcomes in highly specific agricultural regions, such as the more than 7 million acres upon which wheat is grown in Kansas. Here, we demonstrate a strong, steady, and long-term association between a simple “wheat yield index” and sea surface temperature anomalies, more than a year earlier, in the East Pacific, potentially offering insights into forthcoming harvest yields several seasons before planting commences.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data for Approximately 15% of Miscanthus Yield is Lost at Current Commercial Cutting Heights in Iowa

Various works have quantitatively characterized the effects of environmental and management factors on Miscanthus x giganteus Greef et Deu ( mxg ) yield and, therefore, anticipated land requirement per unit production. However, little work has addressed the effects of cutting height, which may significantly contribute to the difference between the standing aboveground biomass at harvest (i.e., biological yield) and harvested yield. This study quantitatively characterized the effect of cutting height using a replicated nitrogen trial of a 5-year-old mxg stand in southeast Iowa and related this information to observations of cutting height in nearby commercial fields. Nitrogen fertilizer did not significantly change the relationship of the stem segment mass to length, and overall, a 1-cm stem segment contributes 0.5% of the total stem biomass within the bottom 44 cm of the stem. This results in an average harvest loss of 15% of the aboveground standing biomass when cutting at 30 cm, typically seen in commercial mxg fields in eastern Iowa. Cutting height should be considered when accurately predicting commercial mxg harvest yields and changes in soil organic carbon in a commercial mxg agroecosystem.

Biomass Analytics↗

DOE OSTI2024

High Yield Xray Imager Final Design Review

The High Yield Xray Imager (HYXI) is a new NIF target diagnostic system currently under development. The goal of HYXI is to provide high-fidelity, high temporal resolution x-ray imaging capability on high yield NIF implosions at 10MJ and above. The HYXI instrument design concept is based on the combination of two technologies that have been successfully utilized at the NIF on previous instruments, electron pulse-dilation and hybrid-CMOS sensor imaging. The combination of these two techniques will give HYXI sufficient data quality to ascertain differences in hot spot formation dynamics between high and low yield implosions. This information will highlight the critical hot spot conditions needed for ignition and burn. The HYXI design leverages the successful operation of the PDIXI x-ray imager at the NIF on multi MJ yield shots. A new radiation tolerant CMOS imaging array (HYPERION) is being developed to eliminate the significant background noise which limits the data quality of PDIXI. We successfully placed the contract with Advanced hCMOS Systems (AHS) to develop the HYPERION sensor, which fulfils our criteria to place long lead time item procurements by end of FY24. The HYXI Final Design Review was completed at the end of Q4 FY24 (Sep 24 th and Sep 30 th ). The HYXI project is a multi-year effort with a phased approach to be bring up system functionality over time in parallel with the development and fabrication effort of the HYPERION CMOS imaging array. In Phase 1, time-integrated x-ray images on NIF DT experiments will be collected starting in Q3 FY25. In Phase 2 of the project, time-resolved imaging with HYXI utilizing a spare microchannel plate detector back-end will begin in Q3 FY26. Phase 3 concludes the project with the installation of the HYPERION sensor array and the final performance qualification of the HYXI instrument which is scheduled for Q3 FY27 as discussed in the PDR and MRT report on this project in FY23.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Compilation of Experimental Yield Data for Spontaneous Fission of 252 Cf

We present a comprehensive compilation and curation of experimental fission yield (FY) data for the spontaneous fission of 252 Cf, extracted from the EXFOR database. The compilation follows a structured methodology developed for prior compilations of neutron-induced fission yields, and incorporates both independent (IFY) and cumulative (CFY) yields. A total of 62 datasets were reviewed, with entries spanning from 1955 to 2021. A significant portion of the literature reports pre-neutron emission yields, which were excluded from the present compilation due to limitations in format compatibility. Each accepted dataset was processed into a standardized JSON format, including metadata, uncertainties, and bibliographic references. Where available, decay radiation information was used to update the FY data using the latest ENSDF evaluations; 237 data points were corrected accordingly. These corrections are fully traceable and preserve original values. The result is a curated dataset suitable for use in nuclear data evaluations. This work is part of an ongoing effort to modernize the handling of FY data and provide evaluators with high-quality, machine-readable experimental inputs

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Estimating Switchgrass Biomass Yield and Lignocellulose Composition from UAV-Based Indices

Innovative methods for estimating commercial-scale switchgrass yields and feedstock quality are essential to optimize harvest logistics and biorefinery efficiency for sustainable aviation fuel production. This study utilized vegetation indices (VIs) derived from multispectral images to predict biomass yield and lignocellulose concentrations of advanced bioenergy-type switchgrass cultivars (“Liberty” and “Independence”) under two N rates (28 and 56 kg N ha –1 ). Field-scale plots were arranged in a randomized complete block design (RCBD) and replicated three times at Urbana, IL. Multispectral images captured during the 2021–2023 growing seasons were used to extract VIs. The results show that linear and exponential models outperformed partial least square and random forest models, with mid-August imagery providing the best predictions for biomass, cellulose, and hemicellulose. The green normalized difference vegetation index (GNDVI) was the best univariate predictor for biomass yield (R 2 = 0.86), while a multivariate combination of the GNDVI and normalized difference red-edge index (NDRE) enhanced prediction accuracy (R 2 = 0.88). Cellulose was best predicted using the NDRE (R 2 = 0.53), whereas hemicellulose prediction was most effective with a multivariate model combining the GNDVI, NDRE, NDVI, and green ratio vegetation index (GRVI) (R 2 = 0.44). These findings demonstrate the potential of UAV-based VIs for the in-season estimation of biomass yield and cellulose concentration.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hydrothermal Liquefaction of Structurally Diverse Lignins: Insights into Biocrude Yield, Fuel Properties, and Reaction Mechanisms

Lignin holds significant promise as a feedstock for biocrude production via hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL). Although lignin HTL has been widely studied, the specific depolymerization pathways associated with distinct lignin structures remain largely unexplored. This study investigates the HTL of four structurally diverse lignins: alkaline (AL), dealkaline (DAL), organosolv (OL), and lignosulfonate (LS) across 270–310 °C to elucidate structure-specific mechanisms governing biocrude yield and composition. AL and OL achieved the highest yields (16.8 ± 0.3% and 16.8 ± 2.5%), with AL-derived biocrude showing the highest carbon content (70.2 ± 0.0%) and HHV (31.0 ± 0.2 MJ/kg). In contrast, DAL and LS produced lower yields and inferior fuel quality due to higher sulfur content and lower carbon enrichment. The structures of AL and DAL, containing fewer methoxy groups, produced guaiacol-rich biocrudes (46.6% and 69.5%). Methylation in AL formed alkyl guaiacols and veratroles, while DAL favored side-chain oxidation. OL retained complex structures, forming syringols and desaspidinol, which contributed to heavier biocrude compounds. Sulfonate groups in LS were stabilized mostly as sulfides, leading to elevated sulfur content. These findings provide mechanistic insight into how lignin structure governs HTL behavior, enabling targeted control of biocrude yield and quality for renewable fuel production.

biocrude↗

NASA NTRS1974

Multiplet effects on the L/sub 2,3/ fluorescence yield of multiply ionized Ar

The 2p fluorescence yield of Ar in the presence of zero to six 3p holes has been calculated by statistically averaging the fluorescence yields of initial states that consist of individual multiplet configurations, formed by coupling the 2p vacancy to the partially filled 3p shell. The L(sub 2,3) fluorescence yields for the (2p)-1 (3p)-n configurations of Ar are found to be 1.48, 17.97, 24.83, 37.84, 79.61, 112.16, and 121.48 x .0001 for n = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, respectively. Results agree reasonably well with experimental fluorescence yields deduced from ion-atom collision measurements.

Chen, M. H.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Crop status evaluations and yield predictions

One phase of the large area crop inventory project is presented. Wheat yield models based on the input of environmental variables potentially obtainable through the use of space remote sensing were developed and demonstrated. By the use of a unique method for visually qualifying daily plant development and subsequent multifactor computer analyses, it was possible to develop practical models for predicting crop development and yield. Development of wheat yield prediction models was based on the discovery that morphological changes in plants are detected and quantified on a daily basis, and that this change during a portion of the season was proportional to yield.

Haun, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Wheat yield forecasts using Landsat data

Leaf area index and percentage of vegetative cover, two indices of crop yield developed from Landsat multispectral scanning data, are discussed. Studies demonstrate that the Landsat indicators may be as highly correlated with winter wheat yield as estimates based on traditional field sampling methods; in addition, the Landsat indicators may account for variations in individual field yield which are not explainable by meteorological data. A simple technique employing early-season Landsat data to make wheat yield predictions is also considered.

Colwell, J. E.↗