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FORESTR: Finding, Organizing, Representing, Explaining, Summarizing, and Thinning Random forests

Random forests have become popular models used for data driven predictions. As a result, random forests are currently used or being considered for high-consequence mission applications in national security, such as the prediction of yield from optical signals and malware detection. While random forests may provide accurate predictions, the complexity of the algorithm causes a lack of interpretability. Random forests are an ensemble of regression or decision trees. Individual regression and decision trees are interpretable, but ensembles are inherently difficult to interpret due to the compilation of many models. We aim to increase the interpretability of random forests by finding patterns in the ensemble of trees that can be used to “thin” (or remove) trees. As a starting point, in this report, we develop a new distance metric for quantifying the similarity between trees based on their topologies (i.e., shapes). We base the metric on a novel distance metric for graphs that is a proper mathematical distance, is invariant to transformations, has registration between graphs, and computes topological evolutions between graphs. We use the tree distance metric to compute tree statistics such as a “mean tree” and to identify clusters of trees. We apply the developed methodology to a toy dataset and a mission relevant product inspection dataset to demonstrate how the metric can provide insight into random forests. Furthermore, we discuss the limitations of the approach and ideas for future research into how the metric could be used as a thinning tool to develop less complex models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Case for Deploying Complex Systems Utilizing Commodity Components

When the International Space Station (ISS) finally reached an operational state, many of the Payload Operations and Integration Facility (POIF) hardware components were reaching end of life, COTS product costs were soaring, and the ISS budget was becoming severely constrained. However, most requirement development was complete. In addition, the ISS program is a fully functioning program with at least fifteen years of operational life remaining. Therefore it is critical that any upgrades, refurbishments, or enhancements be accomplished in realtime with minimal disruptions to service. For these and other reasons, it was necessary to ensure the viability of the POIF. Due to the to the breadth of capability of the POIF (a NASA ground station), it is believed that the lessons to be learned by other complex systems are applicable and any solutions garnered by the POIF are applicable to other complex systems as well. With that in mind, a number of new approaches have been investigated to increase the portability of the POIF and reduce the cost of refurbishment, operations, and maintenance. These new approaches were directed at the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO); not only the refurbishment but also current operational difficulties, licensing, and anticipation of the next refurbishment. Our basic premise is that technology had evolved dramatically since the concept of the POIF ground system and we should leverage our experience on this new technological landscape. Fortunately, Moore's law and market forces have changed the landscape considerably. These changes are manifest in five (5) ways that are particularly relevant to POIF: 1. Complex Instruction Set Computing (CISC) processors have advanced to unprecedented levels of compute capacity with a dramatic cost break, 2. Linux has become a major operating system supported by most vendors on a broad range of platforms, 3. Windows(TradeMark) based desktops are pervasive in the office environment, 4. Stable and affordable WindowsTM development environments and tools are available and offer a rich set of capabilities, 5. The WindowsTM 2000 provides a stable client platform, Therefore, five studies were proposed, developed, and are in the current process of deployment which dramatically reduces the cost of operations, maintenance, refurbishment, and deployment of a ground system. Restating and refining the basic premise stated earlier, it is possible to enhance operations through the replacement of hardware and software components with commodity based items wherever applicable. This will dramatically reduce the overall lifecycle cost of the project. The first study leveraged the POIF S secure, three-tier, web architecture to replace the client workstations with lower cost PC platforms. A second study initiated a review of COTS products to examine the level of added value of each product. This study included replacement of some COTS products with custom code, deletions, substitutions, and consolidation of COTS products. Studies three and four reviewed the server architectures of the data distribution systems and Enhanced HOSC System (EHS) command and telemetry system to propose migration to new platforms, both software and hardware. The final study reviewed current IP communication technologies, developed an operational model for flight operations, and demonstrated that voice over IP was practical and could be integrated into operations.

Bryant, Barry S.↗

Securing Solar for the Grid (S2G)

The first slide deck provides an overview of the goals and objectives of the DOE Grid Modernization Initiative's Project entitled "Assessment and Coordination of DER Cybersecurity Standards." It covers the project's ongoing efforts to create a library of standards related to the cybersecurity of DER. The presentation will review the progress of this effort to-date and solicit feedback from participants on future directions. The second slide deck summarizes NREL's accomplishments for last three years under S2G project in a 10-12 min presentation.

clean energy↗

Octet: A coherent qubit control system for trapped-ion quantum computers

This is firmware and software designed for a Zynq UltraScale+ RFSoC chip made by Xilinx, specifically targeted to laser-based individual addressing of trapped ion qubits via a multi-channel AOM. The design features 8 dual-tone outputs with frequencies up to 409 MHz that can be controlled statically or dynamically via on-chip cubic spline interpolation engines that allow one to generate sequences of output waveforms with fast modulation of frequency, phase, amplitude, and z-rotations that are smooth/discrete and can run simultaneously across all parameters/tones. It also features global phase alignment on all tones regardless of frequency and the ability to return to a known phase/frequency at any later time on a per-tone basis without the need for manual bookkeeping. Acoustic and optical cross-talk can also be destructively canceled by adding neighboring outputs with variable amplitude/phase/delay. Each tone can be optionally frequency locked to an external RF source. SAND2020-12703 M Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Lobser, Daniel↗

Design Optimization of A generic Fissile Solution for Mo99 production using Electron Beam-based Neutron Generator using MCNP+CFD

Molybdenum-99 ( 99 Mo) is a medical isotope used in 80% of all medical imaging procedures today. However, 99 Mo is not directly administered to patients for imaging; its decay product, technetium-99m ( 99 mTc), is a metastable isotope with a half-life of ~6 hours. Such a short half-life does not allow for production, separation, and application to a patient before decaying further. Therefore, the solution is to produce the precursor to 99 mTc, 99 Mo. 99 Mo has a half-life of 66 hours, long enough to produce the material and send it to the desired location before it fully decays. Under National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA) highly enriched uranium (HEU) minimization mission, the Material Management and Minimization (M3) office leads the Molybdenum-99 (Mo-99) program. A major goal of the Mo-99 program is to develop methods of producing 99 Mo using low enriched uranium (LEU) opposed to the traditionally used HEU domestically in the U.S. Internationally, LEU is the new standard for use in research reactors and isotope production facility. In this study, we introduce a generic fissile solution system for 99 Mo production facility meeting the design requirement of 1) LEU usage as fissile material and 2) subcritical fissile system coupled with a horizontal electron beam (E-beam) accelerator. The focus of this research is to optimize a fissile solution configuration for maximum 99 Mo production yield using MCNP model, and ultimately implement the optimized design with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model to understand thermal hydraulic behavior and solution convection characteristic. The report consists of two parts: 1) isotope yield calculation and criticality analysis with a wide range of parametric test matrix, and 2) thermal hydraulic analysis for solution mixing and cooling assessment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Curating NASA's Past, Present, and Future Extraterrestrial Sample Collections

As codified in NASA Policy Directive 7100.10F, the Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office at NASA Johnson Space Center (hereafter JSC Curation) is charged with curation of all extraterrestrial material under NASA control, including future NASA missions. JSC Curation curates all or part of nine astromaterial collections in seven clean room suites: (1) Apollo Samples (1969; ISO 6-7), (2) Luna Samples (from USSR; 1972; ISO 7), (3) Antarctic Meteorites (1976; ISO 7), (4) Cosmic Dust (1981; ISO 5), (5) Microparticle Impact Collection (formerly called Space Exposed Hardware; 1985; ISO 5), (6) Genesis Solar Wind Atoms (2004; ISO 4); (7) Stardust Comet Particles (2006; ISO 5), (8) Stardust Interstellar Particles (2006; ISO 5), (9) Hayabusa Asteroid Particles (from JAXA; 2010; ISO 5). In addition to the labs that house the samples, we have installed and maintained a wide variety of facilities and infrastructure required to support the clean-rooms: more than 10 different HEPA-filtered air-handling systems, ultrapure dry gaseous nitrogen systems, an ultrapure water system (UPW) and cleaning facilities to provide clean tools and equipment for the labs. We also have sample preparation facilities for making thin sections, microtome sections, and even focused ion-beam (FIB) sections to meet the research requirements of scientists. To ensure that we are keeping the samples as pristine as possible, we routinely monitor the cleanliness of our clean rooms and infrastructure systems. This monitoring includes: daily monitoring of the quality of our UPW, weekly airborne particle counts in the labs, monthly monitoring of the stable isotope composition of the gaseous N2 system, and annual measurements of inorganic or organic contamination in processing cabinets. We track within our databases the current and ever-changing characteristics of more than 250,000 individual samples across our various collections (including the 19,141 samples on loan to 433 Principal Investigators in 24 countries). The next sample return missions that NASA will participate in are Hayabusa2 and OSIRIS-REx (Origins Spectral Interpretation Resource Identification Security - Regolith Explorer). The designs for a new state-of-the-art suite of clean rooms to house these samples at JSC have been finalized. This includes separate ISO class 5 clean rooms to house each collection, a common ISO class 7 area for general use, an ISO class 7 microtome laboratory, and a separate thin section lab. Additionally, a new cleaning facility is being designed and procedures developed that will allow for enhanced cleaning of cabinets and tools in an inorganically, organically, and biologically clean manner. We are also designing a large multi-purpose Advanced Curation laboratory that will allow us to develop the techniques necessary to fully support the Hayabusa2 and OSIRIS-REx missions, as well as future possible sample return missions (e.g., Lunar Polar Volatiles, Mars, Comet Surface). A micro-CT (micro Computed Tomography) laboratory dedicated to the study of astromaterials has come online within JSC Curation, and we plan to add additional facilities that will enable non-destructive (or minimally-destructive) analyses of astromaterials in the near future (e.g., micro-XRF (micro X-Ray Fluorescence), confocal imaging Raman Spectroscopy). These facilities will be available to: (1) develop sample handling and storage techniques for future sample return missions, (2) be utilized by PET (Positron Emission Tomography) for future sample return missions, (3) for retroactive PET-style analyses of our existing collections, and (4) for periodic assessments of the existing sample collections.

Zeigler, Ryan A.↗

Measurement of Close-in Ground Motion from an Underground Chemical Explosion

Understanding the geophysical response near an underground explosion is crucial for generating insights into the source and emplacement conditions that produce distinct observations in monitoring scenarios occurring at greater distances. Recently, Shot A of the Low Yield Nuclear Monitoring (LYNM) Physics Experiment 1 (PE1) series was conducted at the Nevada National Security Site to provide ground truth for subsurface explosion signal models. This experiment resulted in measuring near-source ground motion at distances ranging from 70 to 1000 m/kt with a 99% success rate, yielding high-fidelity knowledge of the near-field response that can serve as benchmarks for future numerical modeling and experiment planning. However, technical challenges exist in observing near-source phenomena while safeguarding sensitive data acquisition components from the detrimental effects of ground motion in the subsurface. This report outlines tools and techniques to address challenges associated with observing near-source accelerations and within the tunnel drift of the PE1 test bed. Additionally, we describe key systems designed with both modern advancements and legacy guidance to maximize the collection of high-quality ground motion data, which may be applied to constitutive and computational models, leading to new or improved understanding of the near- and far-field signals produced by underground explosions.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

A Robust Method to Secure Multi-Inverter Grid Tied PV and Battery Energy Storage Systems Against Cyber Intrusions

This paper details a robust method to secure a multi-inverter grid tied system that interfaces photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage against potential cyber-attacks. The method can be applied to any third-party inverter systems without a need to modify their internal controls. A small random private excitation signal termed "watermark" is injected into the DC input voltage terminals (via a series transformer) connected to the PV/battery inverter system. An external robust cyber intrusion detector (CID) hardware consisting of a digital signal processor (DSP) generates the "watermark" and also receives the sensor signals that control the setpoints of the PV/battery grid tied system. The CID algorithm is shown to detect all possible cyber intrusions (such as false data injection(FDI)) on external sensor signals such as P and Q measured by a smart meter that control the overall system operation. The proposed CID computes online system ID and two variance tests in real time on each sensor signal and is able pinpoint intrusion location in a multi-inverter system. Results on a hardware in the loop (HIL) of a two-inverter grid connected system demonstrate effectiveness of the proposed CID system for FDI and unobservable FDI. Test results on a laboratory prototype will be discussed in the conference presentation.

Ibrahim, Hasan↗

Science & Technology Review August 2021

At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, we focus on science and technology research to ensure our nation’s security. We also apply that expertise to solve other important national problems in energy, bioscience, and the environment. Science & Technology Review is published eight times a year to communicate, to a broad audience, the Laboratory’s scientific and technological accomplishments in fulfilling its primary missions. The publication’s goal is to help readers understand these accomplishments and appreciate their value to the individual citizen, the nation, and the world.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Ten questions on building stock modeling to inform energy efficiency and sustainability

To enhance economic competitiveness and ensure energy efficiency, resilience, and security, cities and governments are adopting technologies and strategies to improve their existing building stocks. This approach aims to reduce energy use, improve energy affordability, and ensure a reliable power supply while safeguarding occupants during extreme weather events that may disrupt energy services. The effectiveness of these solutions will depend on building stock characteristics, use patterns, weather conditions, evolving technologies and their markets, and a city’s socio-economic conditions. This paper presents ten questions and answers that highlight the most important issues regarding the use of building stock modeling as a powerful tool to provide insights for informing stakeholders’ actions and decision-making on energy efficiency, costs reduction, and resilience of buildings in cities. Building stock modeling should build upon the fit-for-purpose framework, balancing the use case accuracy requirements, level of complexity, and needed resources (expertise, compute). The advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI), the increasingly available open dataset of building stock in cities, and the more affordable powerful computing will accelerate the adoption of building stock modeling across scales by researchers and practitioners to inform decision making on sustainability and efficiency.

AI↗

NASA Virtual Glovebox (VBX): Emerging Simulation Technology for Space Station Experiment Design, Development, Training and Troubleshooting

The International Space Station demonstrates the greatest capabilities of human ingenuity, international cooperation and technology development. The complexity of this space structure is unprecedented; and training astronaut crews to maintain all its systems, as well as perform a multitude of research experiments, requires the most advanced training tools and techniques. Computer simulation and virtual environments are currently used by astronauts to train for robotic arm manipulations and extravehicular activities; but now, with the latest computer technologies and recent successes in areas of medical simulation, the capability exists to train astronauts for more hands-on research tasks using immersive virtual environments. We have developed a new technology, the Virtual Glovebox (VGX), for simulation of experimental tasks that astronauts will perform aboard the Space Station. The VGX may also be used by crew support teams for design of experiments, testing equipment integration capability and optimizing the procedures astronauts will use. This is done through the 3D, desk-top sized, reach-in virtual environment that can simulate the microgravity environment in space. Additional features of the VGX allow for networking multiple users over the internet and operation of tele-robotic devices through an intuitive user interface. Although the system was developed for astronaut training and assisting support crews, Earth-bound applications, many emphasizing homeland security, have also been identified. Examples include training experts to handle hazardous biological and/or chemical agents in a safe simulation, operation of tele-robotic systems for assessing and diffusing threats such as bombs, and providing remote medical assistance to field personnel through a collaborative virtual environment. Thus, the emerging VGX simulation technology, while developed for space- based applications, can serve a dual use facilitating homeland security here on Earth.

Smith, Jeffrey D.↗

Integrating Commercial Ready Autonomous Robotic Platforms to Enhance Worker Safety and Efficiency - 20053

This paper will explore the challenges and triumphs of implementing advanced robotic systems and the supporting technology for the waste management industry. Deployment-ready solutions for autonomous robotic platforms are new to the radioactive waste management industry and have been slow to implement across the complex. Specifically, it will explore Hanford Tank Operations Contractor's implementation of ground-based autonomous robotic platforms to enhance workforce safety and efficiency. The first objective of the project is to demonstrate safe operation of autonomous instrumented robots, followed by a scaling up of capabilities for the platform to meet any additional requests of internal stakeholders. Autonomous robotics platforms offer a fantastic range of capabilities that will aid in decreasing long-term liability of radioactive waste management industry by enhancing clean-up efforts and worker safety. Over the past five years, deployment-ready solutions for autonomous robotic platforms have come a long way. Autonomous robotic platforms are increasingly available to purchase from many vendors, often for prices under $100,000. Additionally, the vendors who produce these products are efficient in accommodating customized solutions to unique challenges, such as those often found in the radioactive waste management industry. However, the newness of this technology to the radioactive waste management industry and has resulted in a slow implementation across the complex. This paper will explore the challenges and triumphs of implementing advanced robotic systems and supporting technology for the waste management industry. Specifically, it will explore Hanford Tank Operations Contractor's implementation of ground based autonomous robotic platforms to enhance workforce safety and efficiency. While the company has utilized robots in many parts of the tank farms mission, this was first attempted in the deployment of an autonomous platform that required no operator with only minor maintenance and created challenges not yet encountered. These challenges included stakeholder buy-in, operational safety, procurement uncertainties, adaption of 'off the shelf products, overcoming the 'Fukushima complexity' perception, security concerns, and the initial criteria down select. Hanford Tank Operations Contractor's management identified the need for a workforce protecting low cost robotics solution in the fall of 2017. The project scope generated was part of the response to the Tank Vapor Assessment Team recommendation to enhance the safety of the workforce by utilizing new technology. Since the projects inception, it has been incorporated into the Tank Stewardship Plan. This project was unique to Hanford Tank Operations Contractor, as the company does not frequently incorporate advanced technology for field deployment quickly. The project was also progressive to the Hanford Tank Operations Contractor as it functions as a partnership project with a local university. The first objective of the project is to demonstrate safe operations of autonomous instrumented robotics, monitoring and collecting data, and the wireless transmission of data to a central computing system. Following the completion of this first objective, the project will scale up capabilities of the platform to meet the requests of additional internal stakeholders throughout the tank farms - including completion of specific in-field tasks. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Cyber Science Capability Strategy

This document outlines LANL’s cyber science capability strategy, working in tandem with the IS&T strategy, to focus internal investments utilizing our unique skill sets, capabilities and facilities supporting national scientific priorities to address emerging challenges to national security. This strategy identifies LANL’s strengths as they relate to cyber science and is intended to guide internal investments to increase the strength, focus, and impact of LANL’s cyber capability building innovative scientific leadership. Subsequent documents (human capital development, implementation, capabilities, infrastructure, etc.) will develop plans targeting specific program areas including weapons, energy, and strategic partnership programs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Quantum Random Number Generator (QRNG)

The Los Alamos Quantum Random Number Generator (QRNG) is a hardware-based, high-performance Random Number Generator capable of generating 200 Mbit/s or more of true random numbers. Like flipping a coin, it is very much random and essential for information security like encrypting data on the internet, checking email, or purchasing something from an online vendor. The device harvests entropy from fluctuations in an optical source that arise from quantum mechanical properties of light. Qrypt, Inc., a company launched in 2017, began making strategic investments and developing partnerships to advance cutting-edge quantum hardware solutions. One of those key investments was licensing QRNG from Los Alamos and subsequently collaborating with advanced quantum materials and technology researcher Dr. Raymond Newell to create high-quality random keys at scale.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A new framework to map fine resolution cropping intensity across the globe: Algorithm, validation, and implication

We report accurate estimation of cropping intensity (CI), an indicator of food production, is well aligned with the ongoing efforts to achieve sustainable development goals (SDGs) under diminishing natural resources. The advancement in satellite remote sensing provides unprecedented opportunities for capturing CI information in a spatially continuous manner. However, challenges remain due to the lack of generalizable algorithms for accurately and efficiently mapping global CI with a fine spatial resolution. In this study, we developed a 30-m planetary-scale CI mapping framework with the reconstructed time series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from multiple satellite images. Using a binary crop phenophase profile indicating growing and non-growing periods, we estimated pixel-by-pixel CI by enumerating the total number of valid cropping cycles during the study years. Based on the Google Earth Engine cloud computing platform, we implemented the framework to estimate CI during 2016–2018 in eight geographic regions across continents that are representative of global cropping system diversity. Comparison with PhenoCam network data in four cropland sites suggests that the proposed framework is capable of capturing the seasonal dynamics of cropping practices. Spatially, overall accuracies based on validation samples range from 80.0% to 98.9% across different regions worldwide. Regarding the CI classes, single cropping systems are associated with more robust and less biased estimations than multiple cropping systems. Finally, our CI estimates reveal high agreement with two widely used land surface phenology products, including Vegetation Index and Phenology V004 (VIP4) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Land Cover Dynamics (MCD12Q2), meanwhile providing much more spatial details. Due to its robustness, the developed CI framework can be potentially generalized to produce global fine resolution CI products for food security and other applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Embedded Sensor Development in Metallic Structures for the Transformational Challenge Reactor

The ability to make minimally intrusive measurements of process conditions has tremendous potential for improving system performance and control in applications such as nuclear power generation. Towards this end, emerging and evolving advanced manufacturing methods, such as additive manufacturing, present new opportunities for more seamlessly integrating sensing with structure. This technical report summarizes the progress of work performed to assess the feasibility of embedding commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) sensors in a metallic reactor core using advanced manufacturing methods. The progress of four research and development tasks are documented: 1) A survey of COTS sensors for nuclear applications that are candidates for embedded fabrication, 2) Development of a conceptual framework for investigating the feasibility of sensor embedment, 3) Definition of structural geometries and other characteristics that will represent compelling proof-of-concept, and 4) Preliminary prototyping of embedded sensors. For the purposes of this initial study, nuclear grade K-type thermocouples were selected for investigation of embedment methodologies. This sensor was selected as an initial candidate because it represents one of the simplest sensor configurations that can provide useful process information. A selective laser melting (SLM) additive manufacturing process was used to fabricate structures with complexity representative of the core design of the transformational challenge reactor (TCR) and methods were developed to embed a thermocouple with a complex two-dimensional routing path. There are many challenges associated with embedding sensors during the additive manufacturing process including securing the sensor in the structure, relocating the part in the additive machine if using a “pick and place” sensor placement method, mitigating the potential for powder contamination, optimizing energy deposition parameters to build as closely as possible around the sensor path and improve structural integrity of the part, and tuning energy deposition to mitigate thermally induced warpage of the sensor and part as well as potential for damaging the sensing device. Preliminary results indicate that it is feasible to integrate the sensor while minimally compromising the structural integrity of the part and preserving sensor performance. This first phase of this work focused on developing a workflow for embedding sensors and controlling energy deposition during the additive manufacturing process to better understand the build characteristics around the sensor. Future work will perform more in-depth characterization of prototype parts using X-ray computed tomography and scanning electron microscopy to better understand fabricated structures, performance testing of embedded sensors in high temperature environments, adding new embedded measurement modalities, embedding devices with dissimilar materials in contact with additive powders, and the development of methods for embedding sensors with three-dimensional routing paths.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

An overview of SAFENET and its implications for aerospace applications

The survivable, adaptable fiber optic embeddable network (SAFENET) is a draft standard for local area networking (LAN) developed by the Navy which, when adopted, will become a military standard. The standard is being developed for procurement specifications of computer resources to be used on ships and aircraft and has some of the real-time concerns that network standards for space vehicles have. Architecture and survivability are considered. It is noted that the token-ring LAN must implement the IEEE 802.5 recommended practice for dual ring reconfiguration, which is currently being reviewed for inclusion into the IEEE standard. A trunk coupling unit is used at each station to isolate a station from the ring in case of failure. Up to five stations can be bypassed in this fashion. Communication architecture has an OSI profile but differs from the standard concept of the seven layers by allowing alternate suits and breaking the layers into three groupings of services to allow for physical interfacing. It also provides several paths, even if only one profile is used. Management and synchronization protocols are discussed and security issues are addressed. Implications for aerospace applications are considered and it is projected that interoperability with the Navy and other U.S. Government systems may require SAFENET specifications for NASA systems.

Collins, George C.↗

Near Real-Time Flood Monitoring and Impact Assessment Systems

Floods are the costliest natural disaster, causing approximately 6.8 million deaths in the twentieth century alone. Worldwide economic flood damage estimates in 2012 exceed $19 Billion USD. Extended duration floods also pose longer term threats to food security, water, sanitation, hygiene, and community livelihoods, particularly in developing countries. Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that precipitation extremes, rainfall intensity, storm intensity, and variability are increasing due to climate change. Increasing hydrologic uncertainty will likely lead to unprecedented extreme flood events. As such, there is a vital need to enhance and further develop traditional techniques used to rapidly assess flooding and extend analytical methods to estimate impacted population and infrastructure. Measuring flood extent in situ is generally impractical, time consuming, and can be inaccurate. Remotely sensed imagery acquired from space-borne and airborne sensors provides a viable platform for consistent and rapid wall-to-wall monitoring of large flood events through time. Terabytes of freely available satellite imagery are made available online each day by NASA, ESA, and other international space research institutions. Advances in cloud computing and data storage technologies allow researchers to leverage these satellite data and apply analytical methods at scale. Repeat-survey earth observations help provide insight about how natural phenomena change through time, including the progression and recession of floodwaters. In recent years, cloud-penetrating radar remote sensing techniques (e.g., Synthetic Aperture Radar) and high temporal resolution imagery platforms (e.g., MODIS and its 1-day return period), along with high performance computing infrastructure, have enabled significant advances in software systems that provide flood warning, assessments, and hazard reduction potential. By incorporating social and economic data, researchers can develop systems that automatically quantify the socioeconomic impacts resulting from flood disaster events.

Ahamed, Aakash↗