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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,621 records · Page 90
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Wet waste-to-energy resources in the United States

Waste-to-energy (WTE) technologies present an opportunity to recycle organic waste material into renewable energy while offsetting disposal and environmental costs. A key challenge to ensuring economic and environmental viability of WTE is understanding the variability of individual WTE resource characteristics, including their location, amount, and quality. The main objective of this study is to estimate the wet WTE resource potential in the United States and illustrate its geographic distribution. The wet resources considered in this study are wastewater sludge, animal manure, food waste, and FOG (fats, oils, and greases). This study is the first to achieve results below national level, at the finest geographic resolution. Our analysis indicates that about 566 teragrams (Tg) of wet WTE resources are generated annually in the United States. This amount corresponds to about 1 exajoule (EJ), which is sufficient to displace about 18% of the 2015 U.S. on-highway diesel consumption on an energy basis. About half of this potential is generated by animal manure.

waste-to-energy, WTE, water resource, wastewater s↗
DOE OSTI2016

Pre-commercial Demonstration of Direct Non-iterative State Estimator for Operational Use of Synchrophasor Management Systems

The objective of this project was to demonstrate functionality and performance of a Direct Non-iterative State Estimator (DNSE) integrated with NYPA’s Energy Management System (EMS) and with enhanced Real Time Dynamics Monitoring System (RTDMS) synchrophasor platform from Electric Power Group (EPG). DNSE is designed to overcome a major obstacle to operational use of Synchro-Phasor Management Systems (SPMS) by providing to synchrophasor management systems (SPMS) applications a consistent and a complete synchrophasor data foundation in the same way that a traditional EMS State Estimator (SE) provides to EMS applications. Specifically, DNSE is designed to use synchrophasor measurements collected by a central PDC, Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) measurements, and Energy Management System (EMS) network model, to obtain the complete state of the utility’s operating model at rates that are close to the synchrophasor data rates. In this way, the system is comprehensive in that it does not only cover the part of the network that is “visible” via synchrophasors, but also the part that is only “visible” through the SCADA measurements. Visualization needs associated with the use of DNSE results are fulfilled through suitably enhanced Real Time Dynamics Monitoring System (RTDMS), with the enhancements implemented by EPG. This project had the following goals in mind: To advance the deployment of commercial grade DNSE software application that relies on synchrophasor and SCADA data ; Apply DNSE at other utilities, to address a generic and fundamental need for “clean” operational data for synchrophasor applications; Provide means for “live” estimated data access by control system operators; Enhance potential for situational awareness through full system operational model coverage; Sub-second execution rate of the Direct Non-iterative State Estimator, eventually at a near-phasor data rate execution speed, i.e. < 0.1 sec. Anticipated benefits from this projects are: Enhanced reliability and improvements in the economic efficiency of bulk power system planning and operations; Providing “clean” data to other synchrophasor applications; Enhancement of situational awareness by providing the full operational model updated at near synchrophasor rate; A production-grade software tool that incorporate synchrophasor and SCADA data; Provides a basis for development of next generation monitoring and control applications, based on both SCADA and PMU data. Quanta Technology (QT) team worked in collaboration with Electric Power Group (EPG) whose team has enhanced its commercial Real Time Dynamics Monitoring System (RTDMS) to accommodate the requirements posed by DNSE application. EPG also provided its ePDC and Model-less Data Conditioning (PDVC) software for integration with DNSE+. QT developed the system requirements for DNSE; developed system architecture and defined interfaces between internal DNSE components. The core DNSE algorithm with all surrounding interfaces was named DNSE+. Since the DNSE development was done in a simulated system environment, QT used its PMU simulator that was enhanced during this project for development and factory acceptance testing (FAT). SCADA data in this stage was simulated by commercial PSS/e software. The output of DNSE are estimates of System states in C37.118-2 format, sent to RTDMS for further processing and display. As the number of these states is large, it was necessary to expand the C37.111-2 standard to accommodate large data sets. This enhancement was implemented in RTDMS. The demonstration of pre-production DNSE technology was done at NYPA using streaming field data from NYPA PMUs and from its RTUs through their SCADA system. NYPA provided ICCP interface as well as Common Information Model (CIM). The relevance of the DNSE+ application is that it provides state estimation of the power system based on hybrid set of data, consisting of both available PMU data and SCADA measurements. As this is a direct, non-iterative method of calculation of the system states, if does not suffer from convergence issues which is potential problem for conventional state estimators. Also, it can take any available PMU measurements, so it does not need to have a high percentage of PMU coverage needed in the case of Linear State Estimator. As the DNSE calculates synchrophasors of the system states (both phase and absolute value) as sub-second rate, this application can provide a basis for development of next generation of applications based both on SCADA and PMU data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2017

Change in Brooklyn and Queens: How New York?s Reforming the Energy Vision Program and Con Edison Are Reshaping Electric Distribution Planning

The New York City boroughs of Brooklyn and Queens are undergoing a period of gentrification, infrastructure rebuilding, new construction, and load growth not experienced in decades. Significant numbers of residents are moving in, and structures that had been abandoned or were in disrepair are being refurbished and modernized to accommodate the burgeoning population. Homes, businesses, and industries are reviving areas long in decline, and Brooklyn's growth has made it the nation's fourth most populous city, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Non-parametric projections of national income distribution consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Understanding and projecting income distributions within countries and regions is important to understanding consumption trends and the distributional consequences of climate impacts and responses. Several global, country-level projections of income distribution are available but most project only the Gini coefficient (a summary statistic of the distribution) or utilize the Gini along with the assumption of a lognormal distribution. We test the lognormal assumption and find that it typically underestimates income in the highest deciles and over-estimates it in others. We find that a new model based on two principal components of national time series data for income distribution provides a better fit to the data for all deciles, especially for the highest and lowest. We also construct a projection model in which the first principal component is driven by the Gini coefficient and the second captures deviations from this relationship. We use the model to project income distribution by decile for all countries for the five shared socioeconomic pathways. We find that inequality is consistently higher than projections based on the Gini and the lognormal functional form, with some countries reaching ratios of the highest to lowest income deciles that are almost three times their value using the lognormal assumption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Estimating groundwater dynamics at a Colorado River floodplain site using historical hydrological data and climate information

Long-term prediction of groundwater dynamics is important for assessing water resources and their impacts on biogeochemical cycling. However, estimating future groundwater dynamics is challenging due to the wide range of spatiotemporal scales in hydrological processes and uncertainty in future climate conditions. In this study, we develop a Bayesian model to combine small-scale historical hydrological data with large-scale climate information to estimate groundwater dynamics at a floodplain site in Rifle, Colorado. Although we have only a few years of groundwater elevation measurements, we have 47 years of streamflow data from a gaging station approximately 43 km upstream and long-term climate prediction on the Upper Colorado River Basin. To estimate future daily groundwater dynamics, we first develop a time series model to downscale the monthly streamflow derived from climate information to daily streamflow, and then transform the daily streamflow to groundwater dynamics at the downstream floodplain site. We use Monte Carlo methods to estimate future groundwater dynamics at the site through sampling from the joint posterior probability distribution. The results suggest that although future groundwater levels are expected to be similar to the current levels, the timing of the high groundwater levels is predicted to occur about 1 month earlier. The developed framework is extendable to other sites to estimate future groundwater dynamics given disparate data sets and climate projections. Additionally, the obtained estimates are being used as input to a site-specific watershed reactive transport models to predict how climate-induced changes will influence future biogeochemical cycling relevant to a variety of ecosystem services.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Assessment of the point-source method for estimating dose rates to members of the public from exposure to patients with 131I thyroid treatment

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) initiated a contract with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to calculate radiation dose rates to members of the public that may result from exposure to patients recently administered iodine-131 ( 131 I) as part of medical therapy. The main purpose was to compare dose rate estimates based on a point source and target with values derived from more realistic simulations that considered the time-dependent distribution of 131 I in the patient and attenuation of emitted photons by the patient’s tissues. The external dose rate estimates were derived using Monte Carlo methods and two representations of the Phantom with Movable Arms and Legs, previously developed by ORNL and the USNRC, to model the patient and a nearby member of the public. Dose rates to tissues and effective dose rates were calculated for distances ranging from 10 to 300 cm between the phantoms and compared to estimates based on the point-source method, as well as to results of previous studies that estimated exposure from 131 I patients. The point-source method overestimates dose rates to members of the public in very close proximity to an 131 I patient but is a broadly accurate method of dose rate estimation at separation distances of 300 cm or more at times closer to administration.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Accretion of Saturn’s Inner Mid-sized Moons from a Massive Primordial Ice Ring

Saturn’s rings are rock-poor, containing 90%–95% ice by mass. As a group, Saturn’s moons interior to and including Tethys are also about 90% ice. Tethys itself contains <6% rock by mass, in contrast to its similar-mass outer neighbor Dione, which contains >40% rock. Here we simulate the evolution of a massive primordial ice-rich ring and the production of satellites as ring material spreads beyond the Roche limit. We describe the Roche-interior ring with an analytic model, and use an N-body code to describe material beyond the Roche limit. We track the accretion and interactions of spawned satellites, including tidal interaction with the planet, assuming a tidal dissipation factor for Saturn of Q∼10{sup 4}. We find that ring torques and capture of moons into mutual resonances produce a system of ice-rich inner moons that extends outward to approximately Tethys’s orbit in 10{sup 9} years, even with relatively slow orbital expansion due to tides. The resulting mass and semimajor axis distribution of spawned moons resembles that of Mimas, Enceladus, and Tethys. We estimate the mass of rock delivered to the moons by external cometary impactors during a late heavy bombardment. We find that the inner moons receive a mass in rock comparable to their current total rock content, while Dione and Rhea receive an order-of-magnitude less rock than their current rock content. This suggests that external contamination may have been the primary source of rock in the inner moons, and that Dione and Rhea formed from much more rock-rich source material. Reproducing the distribution of rock among the current inner moons is challenging, and appears to require large impactors stochasticity and/or the presence of some rock in the initial ring.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inverter Reliability Estimation for Advanced Inverter Functionality

In the near future, grid operators are expected to regularly use advanced distributed energy resource (DER) functions, defined in IEEE 1547-2018, to perform a range of grid-support operations. Many of these functions adjust the active and reactive power of the device through commanded or autonomous modes, which will produce new stresses on the grid-interfacing power electronics components, such as DC/AC inverters. In previous work, multiple DER devices were instrumented to evaluate additional component stress under multiple reactive power setpoints. We utilize quasi-static time-series simulations to determine voltage-reactive power mode (volt-var) mission profile of inverters in an active power system. Mission profiles and loss estimates are then combined to estimate the reduction of the useful life of inverters from different reactive power profiles. It was found that the average lifetime reduction was approximately 0.15% for an inverter between standard unity power factor operation and the IEEE 1547 default volt-var curve based on thermal damage due to switching in the power transistors. For an inverter with an expected 20-year lifetime, the 1547 volt-var curve would reduce the expected life of the device by 12 days. This framework for determining an inverter's useful life from experimental and modeling data can be applied to any failure mechanism and advanced inverter operation.

component degradation↗
DOE OSTI2017

Using MCNP6 to Estimate Fission Neutron Properties of a Reflected Plutonium Sphere

The purpose of this project was to determine the fission multiplicity distribution, p(v), for the Beryllium Reflected Plutonium (BeRP) ball and to determine whether or not it changed appreciably for various High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) reflected configurations. The motivation for this project was to determine whether or not the average number of neutrons emitted per fission, v, changed significantly enough to reduce the discrepancy between MCNP6 and Robba, Dowdy, Atwater (RDA) point kinetic model estimates of multiplication. The energy spectrum of neutrons that induced fissions in the BeRP ball, NIF (E), was also computed in order to determine the average energy of neutrons inducing fissions, NIF . p(v) was computed using the FMULT card, NIF (E) and NIF were computed using an F4 tally with an FM tally modifier (F4/FM) card, and the multiplication factor, k eff , was computed using the KCODE card. Although NIF (E) changed significantly between bare and HDPE reflected configurations of the BeRP ball, the change in p(v), and thus the change in v, was insignificant. This is likely due to a difference between the way that NIF is computed using the FMULT and F4/FM cards. The F4/FM card indicated that NIF (E) was essentially Watt-fission distributed for a bare configuration and highly thermalized for all HDPE reflected configurations, while the FMULT card returned an average energy between 1 and 2 MeV for all configurations, which would indicate that the spectrum is Watt-fission distributed, regardless of the amount of HDPE reflector. The spectrum computed with the F4/FM cards is more physically meaningful and so the discrepancy between it and the FMULT card result is being investigated. It is hoped that resolving the discrepancy between the FMULT and F4/FM card estimates of NIF(E) will provide better v estimates that will lead to RDA multiplication estimates that are in better agreement with MCNP6 simulations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Modeling, Parameter Estimation, and Data Reconciliation of a Supercritical Pulverized Coal-Fired Boiler

A high-fidelity, spatially distributed dynamic model of a supercritical pulverized coal-fired boiler was developed for calculating transient thermal profiles of the boiler tubes, which are often not measured or unmeasurable in industrial settings due to the harsh operating conditions. In this work, rigorous models of the subcritical and supercritical steam properties, which can be highly nonlinear, were used to capture the transition between two-phase and one-phase flow, respectively, as supercritical boilers frequently transition through the critical point during load-following operation. The transient boiler model was also used for data reconciliation and parameter estimation for the purpose of model validation against industrial data. An approach was developed to reduce the size of large-scale reconciliation problem by focusing on the implementation of bias terms for the reconciled variables, which can be estimated in place of the reconciled variables themselves. In addition, a functional approximation of the reconciliation problem was defined so that it can be more simply optimized. Combining this functional approximation optimization with reformulation of the reconciliation problem considering measurement biases can significantly improve the tractability of many such large-scale problems. The validated boiler model was then used to study transient responses under load-following operation with specific attention on the calculation of unmeasurable variables.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulation Evaluation of a Large-Scale Implementation of Virtual-Phase Link-Based Model Predictive Control

Traffic congestion is a serious problem in the US, and traffic signal control is one of the effective solutions to congestion. Previous research on model predictive control (MPC)-based traffic signal control showed substantial benefits over conventional methods. This study focused on implementing MPC over a large-scale network with complex intersections and the impact of cycle length, network size, and imperfect state estimation on performances. This study implemented a virtual phase link (VPL)-based model predictive control method which used the number of vehicles in each VPL as input state variables and was suitable for National Electrical Manufacturing Association (NEMA) ring-barrier control. To test the impact of network size, the performance of distributed MPC (36 intersections in the network are divided into five subnetworks) was compared with that of MPC over the full network for a set of cycle lengths. To test the impact of imperfect state estimation, we synthetically infused estimation error and developed two scenarios, MPC-error and MPC-error narrow, which had higher and lower estimation errors, respectively. The performance of these MPC methods was compared with that of the existing time-of-day (TOD) method and an offline method that used Webster's method for split and MULTIBAND for cycle length and offset optimization. Trajectory and linkwise signal performance measures were collected from the simulation to evaluate performance. The distributed MPC method with perfect state estimation had the lowest delay and highest energy efficiency of all the methods. The performance of MPC decreased as the prediction inaccuracy increased. MPC-error had 7% and 11% more delay than MPC-error narrow in the morning and evening peaks, respectively. Overall, simulation results suggest that even with imperfect state estimation, MPC methods will outperform offline methods significantly.

large-scale simulation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved multifidelity Monte Carlo estimators based on normalizing flows and dimensionality reduction techniques

Here, we study the problem of multifidelity uncertainty propagation for computationally expensive models. In particular, we consider the general setting where the high-fidelity and low-fidelity models have a dissimilar parameterization both in terms of number of random inputs and their probability distributions, which can be either known in closed form or provided through samples. We derive novel multifidelity Monte Carlo estimators which rely on a shared subspace between the high-fidelity and low-fidelity models where the parameters follow the same probability distribution, i.e., a standard Gaussian. We build the shared space employing normalizing flows to map different probability distributions into a common one, together with linear and nonlinear dimensionality reduction techniques, active subspaces and autoencoders, respectively, which capture the subspaces where the models vary the most. We then compose the existing low-fidelity model with these transformations and construct modified models with an increased correlation with the high-fidelity model, which therefore yield multifidelity estimators with reduced variance. A series of numerical experiments illustrate the properties and advantages of our approaches.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Estimating fluid-induced stress change from observed deformation

Observed deformation is sensitive to a changing stress field within the Earth. There are, however, several impediments to a direct inversion of geodetic measurements for changes in stress. Estimating six independent components of stress change from a smaller number of displacement or strain components is inherently non-unique. The reliance upon surface measurements leads to a loss of resolution, due to the attenuation of higher spatial frequencies in the displacement field with distance from a source. Here, we adopt a technique suited to the estimation of stress changes due to the injection and/or withdrawal of fluids at depth. In this approach the surface displacement data provides an estimate of the volume change responsible for the deformation, rather than stress changes themselves. The inversion for volume change is constrained by the fluid fluxes into and out of the reservoir. The distribution of volume change is used to calculate the displacements in the region above the reservoir. Estimates of stress change follow from differentiating the displacement field in conjunction with a geomechanical model of the o verburden. We also apply the technique to Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations gathered over a petroleum reservoir in the San Joaquin Valley of California. An analysis of the InSAR range changes reveals that the stress field in the overburden varies rapidly both in space and in time. The inferred stress variations are found to be compatible with the documented failure of a well in the field.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Compressed Natural Gas Component Leak Frequency Estimation

The frequency of unintended releases in a compressed natural gas system is an important aspect of the system quantitative risk assessment. The frequencies for possible release scenarios, along with engineering models, are utilized to quantify the risks for compressed natural gas facilities. This report documents component leakage frequencies representative of compressed natural gas components that were estimated as a function of the normalized leak size. A Bayesian statistical method was used which results in leak frequency distributions for each component which represent variation and uncertainty in the leak frequency. The analysis shows that there is high uncertainty in the estimated leak frequencies due to sparsity in compressed natural gas data. These leak frequencies may still be useful in compressed natural gas system risk assessments, as long as this high uncertainty is acknowledged and considered appropriately.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Two-Step Time-Series Data Clustering Method for Building-Level Load Profile

Residential and commercial buildings have huge potential to contribute value to improve grid resilience by participating grid services. To reveal the significant value, it is critical to estimate the grid service capability from these buildings. Unlike the large-scale distributed energy resources such as wind and solar farms, those buildings need to participate grid services in aggregation, not by individual. Therefore, it is important to appropriately group buildings for aggregation. The load profiles in the same group will have similar characteristics at the same time step, so grid operators can send the grid service signal to the customer group with a higher chance to respond at that time step. In this paper, we develop a load profile clustering method to classify the building-level load profiles for grid service capability estimation and the results have proved the effectiveness of this method.

AMI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting climate change impacts on poikilotherms using physiologically guided species abundance models

Poikilothermic animals comprise most species on Earth and are especially sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Species conservation in a changing climate relies upon predictions of species responses to future conditions, yet predicting species responses to climate change when temperatures exceed the bounds of observed data is fraught with challenges. We present a physiologically guided abundance (PGA) model that combines observations of species abundance and environmental conditions with laboratory-derived data on the physiological response of poikilotherms to temperature to predict species geographical distributions and abundance in response to climate change. The model incorporates uncertainty in laboratory-derived thermal response curves and provides estimates of thermal habitat suitability and extinction probability based on site-specific conditions. We show that temperature-driven changes in distributions, local extinction, and abundance of cold, cool, and warm-adapted species vary substantially when physiological information is incorporated. Notably, cold-adapted species were predicted by the PGA model to be extirpated in 61% of locations that they currently inhabit, while extirpation was never predicted by a correlative niche model. Failure to account for species-specific physiological constraints could lead to unrealistic predictions under a warming climate, including underestimates of local extirpation for cold-adapted species near the edges of their climate niche space and overoptimistic predictions of warm-adapted species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

LTAU-FF: Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty in atomistic Force Fields

LTAU (Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty) is a technique for estimating the uncertainty in a model's predictions for any regression task by approximating the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the model's errors over the course of training. The approximated CDF, combined with a similarity search algorithm in the model's descriptor space, can then be used to estimate the likelihood that the model's predictions on any given test point will fall below a chosen threshold. LTAU-FF (LTAU in atomistic Force Fields) is the application of LTAU specifically for use with atomistic force fields.

Vita, JoshuaA↗
DOE OSTI2017

A 15-year record of CO emissions constrained by MOPITT CO observations

Long-term measurements from satellites and surface stations have demonstrated a decreasing trend of tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO) in the Northern Hemisphere over the past decade. Likely explanations for this decrease include changes in anthropogenic, fires, and/or biogenic emissions or changes in the primary chemical sink hydroxyl radical (OH). Using remotely sensed CO measurements from the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) satellite instrument, in situ methyl chloroform (MCF) measurements from the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG) and the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem model, we estimate the change in global CO emissions from 2001 to 2015. We show that the loss rate of MCF varied by 0.2 % in the past 15 years, indicating that changes in global OH distributions do not explain the recent decrease in CO. Our two-step inversion approach for estimating CO emissions is intended to mitigate the effect of bias errors in the MOPITT data as well as model errors in transport and chemistry, which are the primary factors contributing to the uncertainties when quantifying CO emissions using these remotely sensed data. Our results confirm that the decreasing trend of tropospheric CO in the Northern Hemisphere is due to decreasing CO emissions from anthropogenic and biomass burning sources. In particular, we find decreasing CO emissions from the United States and China in the past 15 years, and unchanged anthropogenic CO emissions from Europe since 2008. We find decreasing trends of biomass burning CO emissions from boreal North America, boreal Asia and South America, but little change over Africa. In contrast to prior results, we find that a positive trend in CO emissions is likely for India and southeast Asia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗