Best-Estimate-Plus-Uncertainty-Informed Deterministic Safety Evaluation
Nuclear power plant (NPP) utilities operate contingent on receiving a favorable safety assessment from their national regulatory and safety authority. Among the many facets of NPP safety addressed is verification of integral design-basis performance - a demonstration of a plant's response to a suite of challenging transient and accident scenarios. Thermal-hydraulic system computer codes like RELAP5, TRAC, CATHARE, and ATHLET are used as the simulation engine as part of a broader evaluation model that accounts for a variety of uncertainties. It is common for these evaluation models to apply either a super-bounding/ deterministic or best-estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) approach. The trend over the past two decades has been away from the classical deterministic methods towards methods explicitly incorporating parametric uncertainty models. These methods center upon the evaluation of parametric and system response uncertainties, where these uncertainties are derived from the convolution of one or more parametric uncertainty models. Acceptance of BEPU methods has provided the nuclear industry benefits regarding operational flexibility and, in some cases, power output. The advantage of BEPU for new NPPs is less obvious. Generally, these new designs include engineered safety features that practically eliminate fuel damage resulting from design-basis events. To substantiate such claims, applying super-bounding assumptions on uncertainties may be a more expedient demonstration of a plant's safety case than those based on BEPU. In addition, the requirements on design inputs for a deterministic evaluation model are substantially less than that for a BEPU evaluation model. As such, applying a deterministic evaluation model is expected to have the advantage of reducing the duration of the licensing review process. For the current operating fleet of light-water reactors (LWRs), the nuclear safety authorities in most countries have followed the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's rules for the preparation of safety analysis. These rules are specified in the U.S. Code of Federal Regulations, most notably in, Part 10, Section 50.46, entitled 'acceptance criteria for emergency core cooling systems for light-water nuclear power reactors' and its Appendix K. Notably, Appendix K specifies deterministic requirements for analysis of the loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA), which is generally regarded as the maximum credible accident for LWRs. Projecting 10 CFR 50, Appendix K, to new plants is not obviously applicable as it addresses light water fluid flow and heat transfer phenomena associated with core uncovery. Preventing core uncovery is a requirement for several designs in the class of small modular reactors (SMR). In doing so, the majority of phenomenological uncertainties prescribed in Appendix K are eliminated. Similarly, the impact of other phenomena to effect a change in various safety measures, i.e., figures-of-merit, is expected to be different. The implication is that development of a deterministic evaluation model must be derived with an original technical basis rather than solely rely on Appendix K. While a logical conclusion, the expectation of original bases, regardless of the treatment of uncertainties, is embodied in the U.S. NRC's Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.203, Transient and Accident Analysis. Within the evaluation model development and application process framework of RG 1.203, this paper describes a BEPU-informed deterministic evaluation model for NPPs with large inherent safety margins. (authors)