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At least 1,621 records · Page 90

Theoretical Modeling for Numerical Weather Prediction

The goal is to utilize predictability theory and numerical experimentation to identify and understand some of the dynamical processes which must be modeled more realistically if large-scale numerical weather predictions are to be improved. The emphasis is on the use of relatively simple models to exlore the properties of physically comprehensive general circulation models (GCM's). A global linear quasi-geostrophic model and the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) GCM were used to investigate several mechanisms which are responsible for the decay of large-scale forecast skill in mid-latitude numerical weather predictions. Five-day forecasts for an ensemble of cases were made using First GARP Global Experiment data. It was found that forecast skill depends crucially on the specification of the stationary forcing. A lack of stationary forcing leads to spurious westwad propagation of the ultralong waves. Forecasts made with stationary forcings derived from climatological data are superior to those using forcings inferred from observations immediately preceding the forecast period. Interhemispheric forecast differences were analyzed, and the model errors were compared to errors of a simple persistence-damped-to-climatology scheme and to errors of the GLAS GCM.

Somerville, R. C. J.↗

Integral X-ray diffuse scattering for studying irradiation-induced dislocation loops in single crystals

Numerical diffuse scattering cross-section calculations are used to establish a rigorous basis for determining the concentration and size distribution of dis­location loops in irradiated single crystals from integral X-ray diffuse scattering (XRDS) measurements. Differential XRDS intensities for prismatic {111} type dislocation loops are numerically calculated as a function of loop radius R and wavevectors q relative to Bragg reflections in tungsten. The results show the well known 1/q 2 Huang scattering form at small q that transitions to a ∼1/q 4 dependence associated with the Stokes–Wilson approximation for q ≳ 1/R. More importantly, they show further that the 1/q 4 falloff is not the asymptotic large-q form of the diffuse scattering for small loops (R < 200 Å) as has often been assumed. Rather, for loop sizes as small as R ≃ 5 Å with strong curvature, the calculations show definitively that the scattering transitions to a robust 1/q 5 falloff at larger q that arises due to the local strains near the dislocation core defining the circumference of the dislocation loops. The presence of this 1/q 5 asymptotic form for both small and large loops is experimentally confirmed using an integral XRDS measurement around the 110 reflection on self-ion-irradiated tungsten combined with numerically calculated integral XRDS cross-sections. Accordingly, the historical two-region theoretical treatment of the cross-sections for integral XRDS is extended to a three-region model that has direct sensitivity to the (first-moment) dislocation line lengths of dislocation loops. In conclusion, these developments enable the use of both numerical and analytically modeled cross-sections to make accurate integral XRDS determinations of dislocation loop sizes and concentrations using modest-intensity laboratory X-ray sources.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The relationship of marine stratus to synoptic conditions

The marine stratus which persistently covered most of the eastern Pacific Ocean, had large clear areas during the FIRE Intensive Field Operations (IFO) in 1987. Clear zones formed inside the large oceanic cloud mass on almost every day during the IFO. The location and size of the clear zones varied from day to day implying that they were related to dynamic weather conditions and not to oceanic conditions. Forecasting of cloud cover for aircraft operations during the IFO was directed towards predicting when and where the clear and broken zones would form inside the large marine stratus cloud mass. The clear zones often formed to the northwest of the operations area and moved towards it. However, on some days the clear zones appeared to form during the day in the operations area as part of the diurnal cloud burn off. The movement of the clear zones from day to day were hard to follow because of the large diurnal changes in cloud cover. Clear and broken cloud zones formed during the day only to distort in shape and fill during the following night. The field forecasters exhibited some skill in predicting when the clear and broken cloud patterns would form in the operations area. They based their predictions on the analysis and simulations of the models run by NOAA's Numeric Meteorological Center. How the atmospheric conditions analyzed by one NOAA/NMC model related to the cloud cover is discussed.

Wylie, Donald P.↗

The Vertical Error Characteristics of GOES-derived Winds: Description and Impact on Numerical Weather Prediction

Errors in the height assignment of some satellite-derived winds exist because the satellites sense radiation emitted from a finite layer of the atmosphere rather than a specific level. Potential problems in data assimilation may arise because the motion of a measured layer is often represented by a single-level value. In this research, cloud and water vapor motion winds that are derived from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES winds) are compared to collocated rawinsonde observations (RAOBs). An important aspect of this work is that in addition to comparisons at each assigned height, the GOES winds are compared to the entire profile of the collocated RAOB data to determine the vertical error characteristics of the GOES winds. The impact of these results on numerical weather prediction is then investigated. The comparisons at individual vector height assignments indicate that the error of the GOES winds range from approx. 3 to 10 m/s and generally increase with height. However, if taken as a percentage of the total wind speed, accuracy is better at upper levels. As expected, comparisons with the entire profile of the collocated RAOBs indicate that clear-air water vapor winds represent deeper layers than do either infrared or water vapor cloud-tracked winds. This is because in cloud-free regions the signal from water vapor features may result from emittance over a thicker layer. To further investigate characteristics of the clear-air water vapor winds, they are stratified into two categories that are dependent on the depth of the layer represented by the vector. It is found that if the vertical gradient of moisture is smooth and uniform from near the height assignment upwards, the clear-air water vapor wind tends to represent a relatively deep layer. The information from the comparisons is then used in numerical model simulations of two separate events to determine the forecast impacts. Four simulations are performed for each case: 1) A control simulation that assimilates no satellite wind data, 2) assimilation of all GOES winds according to their assigned single level height, 3) assimilation of all GOES winds spread over multiple levels, and 4) assimilation of all GOES winds spread over multiple levels, but with variations in the vertical influence of clear-air water vapor winds based on the moisture profile in the model. In the first case, a strong mid-latitude cyclone is present and the use of the satellite data results in improved storm tracks during the initial approx. 36 h forecast period. This is because the satellite data improves the analysis of the environment into which the storm progresses. Statistics for mean wind vector and height differences show that, with the exception of the height field at later times in the first case, the use of GOES winds improves the simulation with time. The simulation results suggest that it is beneficial to spread the GOES wind information over multiple levels, particularly when the moisture profile is used to define the vertical influence.

Rao, P. Anil↗

Investigation of technical problems related to deployment and retrieval of spinning satellites

Quantitative analyses were developed to the point where numerical results can be easily obtained in the optimal transfer trajectory problem. Analyses of deployment dynamics and control of the paired satellite concept are progressing. Automatic control in space, optimal retrieval transfer trajectories, deployment attitude dynamics and control, and automatic control systems for retrieval are also considered.

Kaplan, M. H.↗

Numerical algorithms for finite element computations on concurrent processors

The work of several graduate students which relate to the NASA grant is briefly summarized. One student has worked on a detailed analysis of the so-called ijk forms of Gaussian elemination and Cholesky factorization on concurrent processors. Another student has worked on the vectorization of the incomplete Cholesky conjugate method on the CYBER 205. Two more students implemented various versions of Gaussian elimination and Cholesky factorization on the FLEX/32.

Ortega, J. M.↗

Numerical Boundary Conditions for Computational Aeroacoustics Benchmark Problems

Category 1, Problems 1 and 2, Category 2, Problem 2, and Category 3, Problem 2 are solved computationally using the Dispersion-Relation-Preserving (DRP) scheme. All these problems are governed by the linearized Euler equations. The resolution requirements of the DRP scheme for maintaining low numerical dispersion and dissipation as well as accurate wave speeds in solving the linearized Euler equations are now well understood. As long as 8 or more mesh points per wavelength is employed in the numerical computation, high quality results are assured. For the first three categories of benchmark problems, therefore, the real challenge is to develop high quality numerical boundary conditions. For Category 1, Problems 1 and 2, it is the curved wall boundary conditions. For Category 2, Problem 2, it is the internal radiation boundary conditions inside the duct. For Category 3, Problem 2, they are the inflow and outflow boundary conditions upstream and downstream of the blade row. These are the foci of the present investigation. Special nonhomogeneous radiation boundary conditions that generate the incoming disturbances and at the same time allow the outgoing reflected or scattered acoustic disturbances to leave the computation domain without significant reflection are developed. Numerical results based on these boundary conditions are provided.

Tam, Chritsopher K. W.↗

Application of EREP imagery to fracture-related mine safety hazards and environmental problems in mining

The author has identified the following significant results. Numerous fracture traces were detected on both the color transparencies and black and white spectral bands. Fracture traces of value to mining hazards analysis were noted on the EREP imagery which could not be detected on either the ERTS-1 or high altitude aircraft color infrared photography. Several areas of mine subsidence occurring in the Busseron Creek area near Sullivan, Indiana were successfully identified using color photography. Skylab photography affords an increase over comparable scale ERTS-1 imagery in level of information obtained in mined lands inventory and reclamation analysis. A review of EREP color photography permitted the identification of a substantial number of non-fuel mines within the Southern Indiana test area. A new mine was detected on the EREP photography without prior data. EREP has definite value for estimating areal changes in active mines and for detecting new non-fuel mines. Gob piles and slurry ponds of several acres could be detected on the S-190B color photography when observed in association with large scale mining operations. Apparent degradation of water quality resulting from acid mine drainage and/or siltation was noted in several ponds or small lakes and appear to be related to intensive mining activity near Sullivan, Indiana.

Wier, C. E.↗

Mode couplings in a two-stream free-electron laser with a helical wiggler and an ion-channel guiding

In this study, the method of perturbation has been applied to obtain the dispersion relation (DR) of a two-stream free-electron laser (FEL) with a helical wiggler and an ion-channel with all relativistic effects on waves. This DR has been solved numerically to find the unstable modes and their growth rate. Numerical solutions of DR show that the growth rate is considerably enhanced in comparison with single-stream free-electron laser. In group II orbits, with relatively large wiggler induced velocities, new couplings are found. The effect of the velocity difference of the two electron beams on the instabilities has also been investigated in this study. Moreover, the effect of the ion-channel density on the maximum growth rate of FEL resonance has been analyzed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

New perspectives on superparameterization for geophysical turbulence

This is a research expository paper regarding superparameterization, a class of multi-scale numerical methods designed to cope with the intermittent multi-scale effects of inhomogeneous geophysical turbulence where energy often inverse-cascades from the unresolved scales to the large scales through the effects of waves, jets, vortices, and latent heat release from moist processes. Original as well as sparse space–time superparameterization algorithms are discussed for the important case of moist atmospheric convection including the role of multi-scale asymptotic methods in providing self-consistent constraints on superparameterization algorithms and related deterministic and stochastic multi-cloud parameterizations. Test models for the statistical numerical analysis of superparameterization algorithms are discussed both to elucidate the performance of the basic algorithms and to test their potential role in efficient multi-scale data assimilation. The very recent development of grid-free seamless stochastic superparameterization methods for geophysical turbulence appropriate for “eddy-permitting” mesoscale ocean turbulence is presented here including a general formulation and illustrative applications to two-layer quasigeostrophic turbulence, and another difficult test case involving one-dimensional models of dispersive wave turbulence. This last test case has randomly generated solitons as coherent structures which collapse and radiate wave energy back to the larger scales, resulting in strong direct and inverse turbulent energy cascades.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

On the theory of CIV

The critical ionization velocity (CIV) phenomenon involves the transfer of energy from neutrals moving relative to a plasma to electrons. Three mechanisms are discussed and illustrated with numerical simulations. If the elastic electron neutral collision frequency is large (comparable to the electron cyclotron frequency) the electrons can gain enough energy from the neutrals to ionize them. Newly created ions form beams in the plasma which are unstable to lower hybrid waves propagating obliquely to the magnetic field. These waves have an electric field component parallel to the background magnetic field which can accelerate electrons. However, the efficiency of this heating is significantly reduced by electromagnetic effects which occur when the relative velocity exceeds the Alfven speed or when the plasma beta is large. A third mechanism involves the E x B drift of electrons in the secondary electric field due to charge separation at the front of a neutral gas cloud. This E field is opposite to the neutral gas velocity and can be much larger than the polarization field. The electron drift excites the modified two-stream instability which causes rapid electron heating and thus ionization in the front.

Goertz, C. K.↗

On the Laplace relation among the satellites of Uranus

Three of Uranus' satellites are involved in an interaction similar to the Laplace relation among the Galilean satellites of Jupiter. However, there are no pair-wise commensurabilities in the Uranus system as there are among the Galilean satellites. Thus analysis by Fourier expansion of disturbing functions becomes too unwieldy for practical calculation. Instead, the unexpanded perturbations are numerically averaged over a time scale short compared to the important variations in the Laplace relation. Perturbations of Miranda's orbit are estimated to be of observable magnitude for reasonable masses of Ariel and Umbriel.

Greenberg, R.↗

Numerical analysis of electrostatic ion cyclotron instability in an electron-positron-ion plasma

This paper presents a theoretical study of the effects of positron density on the electrostatic ion cyclotron instability in an electron-positron-ion plasma using the kinetic theory approach. It is supposed that positrons and electrons can drift parallel to the magnetic field either in the same or the opposite directions. The dispersion relation for the electrostatic ion cyclotron waves in an electron-positron-ion plasma is derived, and the numerical results are investigated. It is found that an increase in positron concentration increases the critical drift velocity for excitation of the instability in both configurations. It is also found that as the positron concentration increases the growth rate of instability decreases. In addition, it is shown that at low velocities the maximum instability growth rate for the unidirectional case is higher than the counter-streaming case; however, after a certain velocity, the maximum growth rate in the counter-streaming case dominates that of the unidirectional case.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

UNVEILING THE UNIVERSALITY OF I-LOVE-Q RELATIONS

The recent discovery of the universal I-Love-Q relations connecting the moment of inertia, tidal deformability, and the spin-induced quadrupole moment of compact stars is intriguing and totally unexpected. In this paper, we provide numerical evidence showing that the universality can be attributed to the incompressible limit of the I-Love-Q relations. The fact that modern equations of state are stiff, with an effective adiabatic index larger than about two, above the nuclear density range is the key to establishing the universality for neutron stars and quark stars with typical compactness from about 0.1 to 0.3. On the other hand, the I-Love-Q relations of low-mass neutron stars near the minimum mass limit depend more sensitively on the underlying equation of state because these stars are composed mainly of softer matter at low densities. However, the I-Love-Q relations for low-mass quark stars can still be represented accurately by the incompressible limit. We also study the I-Love relation connecting the moment of inertia and tidal deformability analytically in Newtonian gravity and show why the I-Love-Q relation is weakly dependent on the underlying equation of state and can be attributed to its incompressible limit.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Weak baselines and reporting biases lead to overoptimism in machine learning for fluid-related partial differential equations

One of the most promising applications of machine learning in computational physics is to accelerate the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs). The key objective of machine-learning-based PDE solvers is to output a sufficiently accurate solution faster than standard numerical methods, which are used as a baseline comparison. Here, we first perform a systematic review of the ML-for-PDE-solving literature. Out of all of the articles that report using ML to solve a fluid-related PDE and claim to outperform a standard numerical method, we determine that 79% (60/76) make a comparison with a weak baseline. Second, we find evidence that reporting biases are widespread, especially outcome reporting and publication biases. We conclude that ML-for-PDE-solving research is overoptimistic: weak baselines lead to overly positive results, while reporting biases lead to under-reporting of negative results. To a large extent, these issues seem to be caused by factors similar to those of past reproducibility crises: researcher degrees of freedom and a bias towards positive results. We call for bottom-up cultural changes to minimize biased reporting as well as top-down structural reforms to reduce perverse incentives for doing so.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Differentiable programming for online training of a neural artificial viscosity function within a staggered grid Lagrangian hydrodynamics scheme

Lagrangian methods to solve the inviscid Euler equations produce numerical oscillations near shock waves. A common approach to reducing these oscillations is to add artificial viscosity (AV) to the discrete equations. The AV term acts as a dissipative mechanism that attenuates oscillations by smearing the shock across a finite number of computational cells. However, AV introduces several control parameters that are not determined by the underlying physical model, and hence, in practice are tuned to the characteristics of a given problem. We seek to improve the standard quadratic-linear AV form by replacing it with a learned neural function that reduces oscillations relative to exact solutions of the Euler equations, resulting in a hybrid numerical-neural hydrodynamic solver. Because AV is an artificial construct that exists solely to improve the numerical properties of a hydrodynamic code, there is no offline ‘viscosity data’ against which a neural network can be trained before inserting into a numerical simulation, thus requiring online training. We achieve this via differentiable programming, i.e. end-to-end backpropagation or adjoint solution through both the neural and differential equation code, using automatic differentiation of the hybrid code in the Julia programming language to calculate the necessary loss function gradients. A novel offline pre-training step accelerates training by initializing the neural network to the default numerical AV scheme, which can be learned rapidly by space-filling sampling over the AV input space. We find that online training over early time steps of simulation is sufficient to learn a neural AV function that reduces numerical oscillations in long-term hydrodynamic shock simulations. These results offer an early proof-of-principle that online differentiable training of hybrid numerical schemes with novel neural network components can improve certain performance aspects existing in purely numerical schemes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Numerical simulation of the integrated space shuttle vehicle in ascent

A simulation of the flow about the integrated space shuttle vehicle in ascent mode has been undertaken for various flight conditions using the Chimera composite grid discretization approach. Overset body-conforming grids were used to represent each geometric component, and an implicit approximately factored finite-difference procedure was used to solve the three-dimensional thin-layer Navier-Stokes equations. The computational results have been compared with both wind tunnel and flight test data. Although relatively good agreement is obtained with the experimental data, further refinement and evaluation of numerical error is under way.

Buning, P. G.↗