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At least 1,621 records · Page 90

Atmospheric occultation of a solar flare in hard x rays

The objective of this study is two-fold: to investigate the absorption of hard x rays along a tangential path through the terrestrial atmosphere, and to locate, other than the use of imaging devices, the flare source of x ray emission in the sun. Observational data were taken with the Hard X Ray Burst Spectrometer (HXRBS) on board the Solar Maximum Mission satellite (SMM). The occultation event chosen for investigation is the flare on 14 October 1981. Night fell on SMM during the decaying phase of the flare. In about fifteen seconds, the x ray flux decreased to zero. The model for computing synthetic light curve, which is directly comparable to the observed curve, consists of two computing programs. One is a modified version of an existing code, which compute the coordinates of the tangent points of the SMM-sun lines. The other program computed the atmospheric densities along the angles (N to S and E to W) measured from the center of the sun. The various model also depends on the destination of the terrestrial atmosphere at geocentric positions of SMM and the sun, the mean atmospheric densities at different heights and latitudes, and the x ray absorption cross of nitrogen, oxygen, and argon. The optical length, at a given time and for a x ray energy, is computed with the two angular parameters. The fit of a particular synthetic light, curve, i.e., the exponentials of the optical lengths, to the observed eclipse curve, yields the desired angular parameters.

Chen, Kwan-Yu↗

Modeling and measurement of microwave emission and backscattering from bare soil surfaces

A multifrequency ground-based radiometer-scatterometer system working at frequencies between 3.0 GHz and 11.0 GHz has been used to study the effect of soil moisture and roughness on microwave emission and backscattering. The freezing and thawing effect of the soil surface and the changes of the surface roughness due to rain and erosion are reported. To analyze the combined active and passive data, a scattering model based on physical optics approximation for the low frequency and geometrical optics approximation for high frequency has been developed. The model is used to calculate the bistatic scattering coefficients from the surface. By considering the conservation of energy, the result has been integrated over a hemisphere above the surface to calculate the emissivity. The backscattering and emission model has been coupled with the observed data in order to extract soil moisture and surface roughness.

Saatchi, S.↗

Predicting Decade-to-Century Climate Change: Prospects for Improving Models

Recent research has led to a greatly increased understanding of the uncertainties in today's climate models. In attempting to predict the climate of the 21st century, we must confront not only computer limitations on the affordable resolution of global models, but also a lack of physical realism in attempting to model key processes. Until we are able to incorporate adequate treatments of critical elements of the entire biogeophysical climate system, our models will remain subject to these uncertainties, and our scenarios of future climate change, both anthropogenic and natural, will not fully meet the requirements of either policymakers or the public. The areas of most-needed model improvements are thought to include air-sea exchanges, land surface processes, ice and snow physics, hydrologic cycle elements, and especially the role of aerosols and cloud-radiation interactions. Of these areas, cloud-radiation interactions are known to be responsible for much of the inter-model differences in sensitivity to greenhouse gases. Recently, we have diagnostically evaluated several current and proposed model cloud-radiation treatments against extensive field observations. Satellite remote sensing provides an indispensable component of the observational resources. Cloud-radiation parameterizations display a strong sensitivity to vertical resolution, and we find that vertical resolutions typically used in global models are far from convergence. We also find that newly developed advanced parameterization schemes with explicit cloud water budgets and interactive cloud radiative properties are potentially capable of matching observational data closely. However, it is difficult to evaluate the realism of model-produced fields of cloud extinction, cloud emittance, cloud liquid water content and effective cloud droplet radius until high-quality measurements of these quantities become more widely available. Thus, further progress will require a combination of theoretical and modeling research, together with intensified emphasis on both in situ and space-based remote sensing observations.

Somerville, Richard C. J.↗

Laboratory Astrophysics Needs of the Herschel Space Observatory

The science teams of the Herschel Space Observatory have identified a number of areas where laboratory study is required for proper interpretation of Herschel observational data. The most critical is the collection and compilation of laboratory data on spectral line frequencies, transition probabilities and energy levels for the known astrophysical atomic and molecular species in 670 to 57 micron wavelength range of Herschel. The second most critical need is the compilation of collisional excitation cross sections for the species known to dominate the energy balance in the ISM and the temperature dependent chemical reaction rates. On the theoretical front, chemical and radiative transfer models need to be prepared in advance to assess calibration and identify instrument anomalies. In the next few years there will be a need to incorporate spectroscopists and theoretical chemists into teams of astronomers so that the spectroscopic surveys planned can he properly calibrated and rapidly interpreted once the data becomes available. The science teams have also noted that the enormous prospects for molecular discovery will be greatly handicapped by the nearly complete lack of spectroscopic data for anything not already well known in the ISM. As a minimum, molecular species predicted to exist by chemical models should be subjected to detailed laboratory study to ensure conclusive detections. This has the greatest impact on any astrobiology program that might be proposed for Herschel. Without a significant amount of laboratory work in the very near future Herschel will not be prepared for many planned observations, much less addressing the open questions in molecular astrophysics.

Pearson, J. C.↗

Overview of the Temperature Response in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere to Solar Activity

The natural variability in the terrestrial mesosphere needs to be known to correctly quantify global change. The response of the thermal structure to solar activity variations is an important factor. Some of the earlier studies highly overestimated the mesospheric solar response. Modeling of the mesospheric temperature response to solar activity has evolved in recent years, and measurement techniques as well as the amount of data have improved. Recent investigations revealed much smaller solar signatures and in some case no significant solar signal at all. However, not much effort has been made to synthesize the results available so far. This article presents an overview of the energy budget of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) and an up-to-date status of solar response in temperature structure based on recently available observational data. An objective evaluation of the data sets is attempted and important factors of uncertainty are discussed.

Beig, Gufran↗

Evaluation of Global Observations-Based Evapotranspiration Datasets and IPCC AR4 Simulations

Quantification of global land evapotranspiration (ET) has long been associated with large uncertainties due to the lack of reference observations. Several recently developed products now provide the capacity to estimate ET at global scales. These products, partly based on observational data, include satellite ]based products, land surface model (LSM) simulations, atmospheric reanalysis output, estimates based on empirical upscaling of eddycovariance flux measurements, and atmospheric water balance datasets. The LandFlux-EVAL project aims to evaluate and compare these newly developed datasets. Additionally, an evaluation of IPCC AR4 global climate model (GCM) simulations is presented, providing an assessment of their capacity to reproduce flux behavior relative to the observations ]based products. Though differently constrained with observations, the analyzed reference datasets display similar large-scale ET patterns. ET from the IPCC AR4 simulations was significantly smaller than that from the other products for India (up to 1 mm/d) and parts of eastern South America, and larger in the western USA, Australia and China. The inter-product variance is lower across the IPCC AR4 simulations than across the reference datasets in several regions, which indicates that uncertainties may be underestimated in the IPCC AR4 models due to shared biases of these simulations.

Mueller, B.↗

Latest Results from NASA Ames’ COSmIC and Optical Constants Facility (OCF): Determining Optical Constants for Titan, Pluto and Protoplanetary Disks Applications

The NASA Ames COsmic SImulation Chamber (COSmIC) is a unique experimental facility that can be used, among many applications, to produce solid particles from gas phase molecular precursors at low temperature (150 K) using a plasma discharge to induce the chemistry in the stream of a free jet expansion. The choice of the initial gas mixture used to produce the solid sample allows the simulation of either cold planetary atmospheres like Titan or Pluto (with N2/CH4-based initial mixtures), or circumstellar environments (with Ar/CxHy-based initial mixtures). The Ames Optical Constants Facility (OCF) allows the determination of optical constants covering a broad wavelength range with high spectral resolution for solid materials, analogs of organic refractory materials formed in planetary and astrophysical environments. The core of the OCF is a Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer that allows the continuous characterization of solid samples in the visible to far-infrared (FIR) range (0.59–200 μm, 16,950–50 cm−1). Modeling of the laboratory measurements conducted with the OCF allows the determination of accurate optical constants, n and k, over the full vis-FIR range. Here we present the latest results of two studies that combined (1) experiments performed with COSmIC to produce analogs of aerosols forming in Titan’s atmosphere and analogs of cosmic grains forming in circumstellar envelops, and (2) the characterization of these analogs with the OCF to provide the real and imaginary parts of their refractive indices, n + ik, to the community, from the visible to the FIR. These optical constants can be used as critical input parameters in radiative transfer, atmospheric and reflectance models to interpret observational data of, e.g., Titan’s atmosphere and protoplanetary disks. Providing optical constants for various materials of different compositions allows to explore a broad range of composition by simulating mixtures of materials. We also present a new project to produce analogs of Pluto’s atmospheric aerosols with COSmIC and determine their optical constants with OCF, to be used in reflectance spectra models for the interpretation of New Horizons observations of Lowell Regio, Sputnik Planitia and Cthulhu.

COsmic SImulation Chamber (COSmIC)↗

Analysis and interpretation of CCD data on P/Halley and physical parameters and activity status of cometary nuclei at large heliocentric distance

The scientific objectives were as follows: (1) to construct a well sampled photometric time series of comet Halley extending to large heliocentric distances both post and pre-perihelion passage and derive a precise ephemeris for the nuclear spin so that the physical and chemical characteristics of individual regions of activity on the nucleus can be determined; and (2) to extend the techniques in the study of Comet Halley to the study of other cometary nuclei and to obtain new observational data.

Belton, Michael J. S.↗

Interpreting the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) Multi-Height Velocity Measurements

The Solar Dynamics Observatory Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (SDOHMI) filtergrams, taken at six wavelengths around the Fe I 6173.3 Å line, contain information about the line-of-sight velocity over a range of heights in the solar atmosphere. Multiheight velocity inferences from these observations can be exploited to study wave motions and energy transport in the atmosphere. Using realistic convection-simulation datasets provided by the STAGGER and MURaM codes, we generate synthetic filtergrams and explore several methods for estimating Dopplergrams.We investigate at which height each synthetic Dopplergram correlates most strongly with the vertical velocity in the model atmospheres. On the basis of the investigation, we propose two Dopplergrams other than the standard HMI-algorithm Dopplergram produced from HMI filtergrams: a line-center Dopplergram and an average-wing Dopplergram. These two Dopplergrams correlate most strongly with vertical velocities at the heights of 30 40 km above (line center) and 30 40 km below (average wing) the effective height of the HMI-algorithm Dopplergram. Therefore, we can obtain velocity information from two layers separated by about a half of a scale height in the atmosphere, at best. The phase shifts between these multi-height Dopplergrams from observational data as well as those from the simulated data are also consistent with the height-difference estimates in the frequency range above the photospheric acoustic-cutoff frequency.

velocity fields↗

Objective Lightning Forecasting at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station using Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System Data

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) at Cape Canaveral Air-Force Station (CCAFS)ln Florida issues a probability of lightning occurrence in their daily 24-hour and weekly planning forecasts. This information is used for general planning of operations at CCAFS and Kennedy Space Center (KSC). These facilities are located in east-central Florida at the east end of a corridor known as 'Lightning Alley', an indication that lightning has a large impact on space-lift operations. Much of the current lightning probability forecast is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data and an objective forecast tool developed over 30 years ago. The 45 WS requested that a new lightning probability forecast tool based on statistical analysis of more recent historical warm season (May-September) data be developed in order to increase the objectivity of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast. The resulting tool is a set of statistical lightning forecast equations, one for each month of the warm season, that provide a lightning occurrence probability for the day by 1100 UTC (0700 EDT) during the warm season.

Lambert, Winfred↗

The interplay between regeneration and scavenging fluxes drives ocean iron cycling

Despite recent advances in observational data coverage, quantitative constraints on how different physical and biogeochemical processes shape dissolved iron distributions remain elusive, lowering confidence in future projections for iron-limited regions. Here we show that dissolved iron is cycled rapidly in Pacific mode and intermediate water and accumulates at a rate controlled by the strongly opposing fluxes of regeneration and scavenging. Combining new data sets within a watermass framework shows that the multidecadal dissolved iron accumulation is much lower than expected from a meta-analysis of iron regeneration fluxes. This mismatch can only be reconciled by invoking significant rates of iron removal to balance iron regeneration, which imply generation of authigenic particulate iron pools. Consequently, rapid internal cycling of iron, rather than its physical transport, is the main control on observed iron stocks within intermediate waters globally and upper ocean iron limitation will be strongly sensitive to subtle changes to the internal cycling balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

EXTREMELY METAL-POOR GALAXIES: THE ENVIRONMENT

We have analyzed bibliographical observational data and theoretical predictions, in order to probe the environment in which extremely metal-poor dwarf galaxies (XMPs) reside. We have assessed the H i component and its relation to the optical galaxy, the cosmic web type (voids, sheets, filaments and knots), the overdensity parameter and analyzed the nearest galaxy neighbors. The aim is to understand the role of interactions and cosmological accretion flows in the XMP observational properties, particularly the triggering and feeding of the star formation. We find that XMPs behave similarly to Blue Compact Dwarfs; they preferably populate low-density environments in the local universe: ∼60% occupy underdense regions, and ∼75% reside in voids and sheets. This is more extreme than the distribution of irregular galaxies, and in contrast to those regions preferred by elliptical galaxies (knots and filaments). We further find results consistent with previous observations; while the environment does determine the fraction of a certain galaxy type, it does not determine the overall observational properties. With the exception of five documented cases (four sources with companions and one recent merger), XMPs do not generally show signatures of major mergers and interactions; we find only one XMP with a companion galaxy within a distance of 100 kpc, and the H i gas in XMPs is typically well-behaved, demonstrating asymmetries mostly in the outskirts. We conclude that metal-poor accretion flows may be driving the XMP evolution. Such cosmological accretion could explain all the major XMP observational properties: isolation, lack of interaction/merger signatures, asymmetric optical morphology, large amounts of unsettled, metal-poor H i gas, metallicity inhomogeneities, and large specific star formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Observational and Modeling Study of Ice Hydrometeor Radar Dual-Wavelength Ratios

The influence of ice hydrometeor shape on the dual-wavelength ratio (DWR) of radar reflectivities at millimeter-wavelength frequencies is studied theoretically and on the basis of observations. Data from dual-frequency (K a –W bands) radar show that, for vertically pointing measurements, DWR increasing trends with reflectivity Z e are very pronounced when K a -band Z e is greater than about 0 dB Z and that DWR and Z e values are usually well correlated. This correlation is explained by strong relations between hydrometeor characteristic size and both of these radar variables. The observed DWR variability for a given level of reflectivity is as large as 8 dB, which is in part due to changes in mean hydrometeor shape as expressed in terms of the particle aspect ratio. Hydrometeors with a higher degree of nonsphericity exhibit lower DWR values when compared with quasi-spherical particles because of near-zenith reflectivity enhancements for particles outside the Rayleigh-scattering regime. When particle mass–size relations do not change significantly (e.g., for low-rime conditions), DWR can be used to differentiate between quasi-spherical and highly nonspherical hydrometeors because (for a given reflectivity value) DWR tends to increase as particles become more spherical. Another approach for differentiating among different degrees of nonsphericity for larger scatterers is based on analyzing DWR changes as a function of radar elevation angle. These changes are more pronounced for highly nonspherical particles and can exceed 10 dB. Measurements of snowfall spatiotemporally collocated with spaceborne CloudSat W-band radar and ground-based S-band operational weather radars also indicate that DWR values are generally smaller for ice hydrometeors with higher degrees of nonsphericity, which, for the same level of S-band reflectivity, exhibit greater differential reflectivity values.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DAO's Finite-volume/Physical-space Data Assimilation System: Stratospheric Applications

In this talk we describe the next-generation data assimilation system being developed at NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO), with emphasis on the applications to stratospheric forecasts and stratospheric constituent transport. This data assimilation system includes the General Circulation Model jointly developed by the DAO and the Climate and Global Dynamics Division (CGDD) at NCAR. This model is based on the finite-volume dynamical core) developed at DAO with physical parameterizations from the NCAR Climate Community Model. The Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS) is used to combine a first guess from the NASA-NCAR GCM with observational data to provide an updated estimate of the state of the atmosphere. Case studies for the (northern) Winter of 2000 will be discussed.

daSilva, Arlindo↗

A likelihood ratio anomaly detector for identifying within-perimeter computer network attacks

The rapid detection of attackers within firewalls of enterprise computer networks is of paramount importance. Anomaly detectors address this problem by quantifying deviations from baseline statistical models of normal network behavior and signaling an intrusion when the observed data deviates significantly from the baseline model. But, many anomaly detectors do not take into account plausible attacker behavior. As a result, anomaly detectors are prone to a large number of false positives due to unusual but benign activity. Our paper first introduces a stochastic model of attacker behavior which is motivated by real world attacker traversal. Then, we develop a likelihood ratio detector that compares the probability of observed network behavior under normal conditions against the case when an attacker has possibly compromised a subset of hosts within the network. Since the likelihood ratio detector requires integrating over the time each host becomes compromised, we illustrate how to use Monte Carlo methods to compute the requisite integral. We then present Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves for various network parameterizations that show for any rate of true positives, the rate of false positives for the likelihood ratio detector is no higher than that of a simple anomaly detector and is often lower. Finally, we demonstrate the superiority of the proposed likelihood ratio detector when the network topologies and parameterizations are extracted from real-world networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Relaxation algorithms for matrix completion, with applications to seismic travel-time data interpolation

Travel time tomography is used to infer the underlying three-dimensional wavespeed structure of the Earth by fitting seismic travel time data collected at surface stations. Data interpolation and denoising techniques are important pre-processing steps that use prior knowledge about the data, including parsimony in the frequency and wavelet domains, low-rank structure of matricizations, and local smoothness. In this work, we show how local smoothness structure can be combined with low rank constraints using level-set optimization formulations, and develop a new relaxation algorithm that can efficiently solve these joint problems. In the seismology setting, we use the approach to interpolate missing stations and de-noise observed stations. The new approach is competitive with alternative algorithms, and offers new functionality to interpolate observed data using both smoothness and low rank structure in the presence of data fitting constraints.

constrained optimization↗

Bayesian Static Parameter Estimation for Partially Observed Diffusions via Multilevel Monte Carlo

In this article we consider static Bayesian parameter estimation for partially observed diffusions that are discretely observed. We work under the assumption that one must resort to discretizing the underlying diffusion process, for instance, using the Euler--Maruyama method. Given this assumption, we show how one can use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and particularly particle MCMC [C. Andrieu, A. Doucet, and R. Holenstein, J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Stat. Methodol., 72 (2010), 269--342] to implement a new approximation of the multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo (MC) collapsing sum identity. Our approach comprises constructing an approximate coupling of the posterior density of the joint distribution over parameter and hidden variables at two different discretization levels and then correcting by an importance sampling method. The variance of the weights are independent of the length of the observed data set. The utility of such a method is that, for a prescribed level of mean square error, the cost of this MLMC method is provably less than i.i.d. sampling from the posterior associated to the most precise discretization. However the method here comprises using only known and efficient simulation methodologies. Finally, the theoretical results are illustrated by inference of the parameters of two prototypical processes given noisy partial observations of the process: the first is an Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process and the second is a more general Langevin equation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

CERESMIP: a climate modeling protocol to investigate recent trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has now produced over two decades of observed data on the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) and has revealed substantive trends in both the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave top-of-atmosphere radiation components. Available climate model simulations suggest that these trends are incompatible with purely internal variability, but that the full magnitude and breakdown of the trends are outside of the model ranges. Unfortunately, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6) protocol only uses observed forcings to 2014 (and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) projections thereafter), and furthermore, many of the ‘observed' drivers have been updated substantially since the CMIP6 inputs were defined. Most notably, the sea surface temperature (SST) estimates have been revised and now show up to 50% greater trends since 1979, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, estimates of short-lived aerosol and gas-phase emissions have been substantially updated. These revisions will likely have material impacts on the model-simulated EEI. We therefore propose a new, relatively low-cost, model intercomparison, CERESMIP, that would target the CERES period (2000-present), with updated forcings to at least the end of 2021. The focus will be on atmosphere-only simulations, using updated SST, forcings and emissions from 1990 to 2021. The key metrics of interest will be the EEI and atmospheric feedbacks, and so the analysis will benefit from output from satellite cloud observation simulators. The Tier 1 request would consist only of an ensemble of AMIP-style simulations, while the Tier 2 request would encompass uncertainties in the applied forcing, atmospheric composition, single and all-but-one forcing responses. We present some preliminary results and invite participation from a wide group of models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗