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At least 1,621 records · Page 90

Kinetics and Products of Vinyl + 1,3-Butadiene, a Potential Route to Benzene

The reaction between vinyl radical, C 2 H3, and 1,3-butadiene, 1,3-C 4 H 6 , has long been recognized as a potential route to benzene, particularly in 1,3-butadiene flames, but the lack of reliable rate coefficients has hindered assessments of its true contribution. Here, by using laser flash photolysis and visible laser absorbance (λ = 423.2 nm), we measured the overall rate coefficient for C 2 H 3 + 1,3-C 4 H 6 , k 1 , at 297 K ≤ T ≤ 494 K and 4 ≤ P ≤ 100 Torr. k 1 was in the high-pressure limit in this range and could be fit by the simple Arrhenius expression k1 = (1.1 ± 0.2) × 10 –12 cm 3 molecule –1 s –1 exp(–9.9 ± 0.6 kJ mol –1 /RT). Using photoionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry, we also investigated the products formed. At T ≤ 494 K and P = 25 Torr, we found only C 6 H 9 adduct species, while at 494 K ≤ T ≤ 700 K and P = 4 Torr, we observed ≤~10% branching to cyclohexadiene in addition to C 6 H 9 . Quantum chemistry master-equation calculations using the modified strong collision model indicate that n-C 6 H 9 is the dominant product at low temperature, consistent with our experimental results, and predict the rate coefficient and branching ratios at higher T where chemically activated channels become important. Predictions of k 1 are in close agreement with our experimental results, allowing us to recommend the following modified Arrhenius expression in the high-pressure limit from 300 to 2000 K: k 1 = 6.5 × 10 –20 cm 3 molecule –1 s –1 T 2.40 exp(–1.76 kJ mol –1 /RT).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A New Platform for Managing Soil Carbon and Soil Health

International Soil Carbon Network Workshop; Stanford, California, 27 February to 3 March 2017. Here, workshop participants recognized the need to identify vulnerabilities and opportunities for linking SOM-C science and the societal mandate to manage soils and ecosystems for productivity and carbon sequestration in future decades. Lastly, we outlined a path to gain support for the ISCN vision of a collective soil data platform from stakeholders and partners through engagement in coming years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Frequency-Bessel Transform Method for Effective Imaging of Higher-Mode Rayleigh Dispersion Curves From Ambient Seismic Noise Data

It has been widely recognized that the cross-correlation function of ambient seismic noise data recorded at two stations approximates to the part of Greens function between two stations. Therefore, the cross-correlation function should include higher modes, aside from the fundamental mode. However, the problem of measuring or extracting overtones from ambient seismic noise data remains. In this paper, we propose the frequency-Bessel transform method (F-J method) for extracting the dispersion curves of higher modes from ambient seismic noise data. We then assess the validity, accuracy, and applicability of the F-J method by conducting extensive numerical simulations and processing the observed ambient seismic noise data of the USArray. As demonstrated in this study, the F-J method is a convenient, practical, and accurate method for extracting the dispersion curves of multimodes from ambient seismic noise data and therefore has significant potentiality in the field of ambient seismic noise tomography.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Representing Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Carbon Interactions in the E3SM Land Model: Development and Global Benchmarking

Over the past several decades, the land modeling community has recognized the importance of nutrient regulation on the global terrestrial carbon cycle. Implementations of nutrient limitation in land models are diverse, varying from applying simple empirical down–regulation of potential gross primary productivity under nutrient deficit conditions to more mechanistic treatments. In this study, we introduce a new approach to model multinutrient (nitrogen [N] and phosphorus [P]) limitations in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model version 1 (ELMv1–ECA). The development is grounded on (1) advances in representing multiple–consumer, multiple–nutrient competition; (2) a generic dynamic allocation scheme based on water, N, P, and light availability; (3) flexible plant CNP stoichiometry; (4) prognostic treatment of N and P constraints on several carbon cycle processes; and (5) global data sets of plant physiological traits. Through benchmarking the model against best knowledge of global plant and soil carbon pools and fluxes, we show that our implementation of nutrient constraints on the present–day carbon cycle is robust at the global scale. Compared with predecessor versions, ELMv1–ECA better predicts global–scale gross primary productivity, ecosystem respiration, leaf area index, vegetation biomass, soil carbon stocks, evapotranspiration, N2O emissions, and NO3– leaching. Factorial experiments imply that representing the phosphorus cycle improves modeled carbon fluxes, while considering dynamic allocation improves modeled carbon stock density. We also illustrate the value of using the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) package to evaluate and document performance during model development.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Rifting Processes at a Continent‐Ocean Transition Rift Revealed by Fault Analysis: Example of Dabbahu‐Manda‐Hararo Rift (Ethiopia)

Abstract Analyses of fault attributes have contributed to unraveling fault growth processes in diverse tectonic settings. By integrating such analysis at the scale of a fault population, we propose to investigate the characteristics of a rift that has evolved up to a stage typical of a continent‐ocean transition. We address this problem by considering Dabbahu‐Manda‐Hararo (DMH) rift segment (Central Afar, Ethiopia), recognized for being in a late rifting stage. We quantify fault azimuth, length, and throw attributes for 668 normal faults. Along DMH rift, the mean fault density is 0.87 ± 0.7 km/km 2 and the median tectonic strain ranges from 1.8% to 3.1% assuming a fault dip of 60° and 45°, respectively. Maximum tectonic strain (>10%) is found where the rift azimuth changes. Along‐rift variations in fault azimuth, length, and scaling relationships suggest a different stage of rifting in the northern part of the rift. We show that this difference can be attributed to the influence of the Dabbahu volcano located at the northern tip of the rift, which captured the propagating Manda‐Hararo rift in the last ~100 kyr. The morpho‐tectonic analysis reveals numerous common features with slow‐spreading ridge segments, such as the Lucky Strike segment located along the Mid‐Atlantic ridge (segment length, spreading rate, associated magmatic system) but also with intermediate and fast ones (axial valley, fault throws, and diking). This study reveals that a rift at the continent‐ocean transition may be characterized by a transient and evolutionary behavior that shares features with oceanic ridges from slow‐ to fast‐spreading rates.

Dumont, S.↗

Hillslope Hydrology in Global Change Research and Earth System Modeling

Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding and predicting global change, but they cannot explicitly resolve hillslope-scale terrain structures that have been long recognized by hydrologists as the fundamental organizers of water, energy, and biogeochemical stores and fluxes. Here, we bring together hydrologists, Critical Zone scientists and ESM developers, to explore how hillslope structures may modulate ESM grid-level water, energy and biogeochemical fluxes. In contrast to the traditional one-dimensional (1D), vertical, 2-3m deep, and free-draining soil hydrology in current ESM land models, we argue that 3D, lateral ridge-to-valley flow through shallow and deep paths, and insolation contrasts between sunny and shady slopes, are the top two basic, long-acknowledged, and readily quantifiable organizers of water and energy (and hence vegetation) within an ESM grid cell. We argue that these two processes will be most consequential where (and when) water and/or energy are limiting. We further hypothesize that if they are implemented in ESM land models, they will increase continental water storage and residence time, buffering land ecosystems against seasonal and interannual droughts. We explore efficient ways to capture these mechanisms in ESMs and identify critical knowledge gaps preventing us from scaling up hillslope to global processes. One such gap is our extremely limited view of the subsurface, where water is stored to support vegetation and released to stream baseflow and aquatic ecosystems. We conclude with a call for global syntheses activities and model experiments to assess the impact of hillslope hydrology on global change predictions.

Fan, Ying↗

Probing Slow Earthquakes With Deep Learning

Abstract Slow earthquakes may trigger failure on neighboring locked faults that are stressed sufficiently to break, and slow slip patterns may evolve before a nearby great earthquake. However, even in the clearest cases such as Cascadia, slow earthquakes and associated tremor have only been observed in intermittent and discrete bursts. By training a convolutional neural network to detect known tremor on a single seismic station in Cascadia, we isolate and identify tremor and slip preceding and following known larger slow events. The deep neural network can be used for the detection of quasi‐continuous tremor, providing a proxy that quantifies the slow slip rate. Furthermore, the model trained in Cascadia recognizes tremor in other subduction zones and also along the San Andreas Fault at Parkfield, suggesting a universality of waveform characteristics and source processes, as posited from experiments and theory.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Disentangling the Effects of Temperature, Moisture, and Substrate Availability on Soil CO 2 Efflux

Soil respiration ($R_s$), the largest carbon emission flux in ecosystems, is usually modeled as an empirically parameterized function of temperature, and sometimes water availability. The likely contribution by other factors, such as carbohydrate substrate supply from photosynthesis, has been recognized, but modeling capacity to use this information is limited. Wavelet transformations of the residuals of a seasonal Q 10 temperature response model indicated structure at different temporal scales. In this work, we hypothesize that this indicates the lack of explicit representation of relevant processes in the models. Using cross-spectral analysis, we found that time series of photosynthetically active radiation explained most of the diurnal variation, temperature, explained variability at multiple time scales (diurnal-synoptic), whereas volumetric soil water content correlated with variability in Rs at scales 15-30 days. The results suggest that the time domains of influence for different driving variables of $R_s$ are discrete, and largely nonoverlapping, and represent functional relationships between soil biological activity and its constraints. Analysis of phase angles showed that $R_s$ lagged photosynthetically active radiation by 1.5-3.0 hr. As this time lag was the same in both young and mature trees, with more than fivefold difference in transport distances, we hypothesize that this finding adds to the body of literature that support the pressure-concentration-wave model of carbohydrate availability in plants.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Streamflow Reconstruction in the Upper Missouri River Basin Using a Novel Bayesian Network Model

A Bayesian model that uses the spatial dependence induced by the river network topology, and the leading principal components of regional tree ring chronologies for paleo-streamflow reconstruction is presented. In any river basin, a convergent, dendritic network of tributaries come together to form the main stem of a river. Consequently, it is natural to think of a spatial Markov process that recognizes this topological structure to develop a spatially consistent basin-scale streamflow reconstruction model that uses the information in streamflow and tree ring chronology data to inform the reconstructed flows, while maintaining the space-time correlation structure of flows that is critical for water resource assessments and management. Given historical data from multiple streamflow gauges along a river, their tributaries in a watershed, and regional tree ring chronologies, the model is fit and used to simultaneously reconstruct the full network of paleo-streamflow at all gauges in the basin progressing upstream to downstream along the river. Our application to 18 streamflow gauges in the Upper Missouri River Basin shows that the mean adjusted R 2 for the basin is approximately 0.5 with good overall cross-validated skill as measured by five different skill metrics. The spatial network structure produced a substantial reduction in the uncertainty associated with paleo-streamflow as one proceeds downstream in the network aggregating information from upstream gauges and tree ring chronologies. Uncertainty was reduced by more than 50% at six gauges, between 6% and 50% at one gauge, and by less than 5% at the remaining 11 gauges when compared with the traditional principal component regression reconstruction model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic Earthquake Triggering in Southern California in High Resolution: Intensity, Time Decay, and Regional Variability

Abstract Earthquake triggering by seismic waves has been recognized as a phenomenon for nearly 30 years. However, our ability to study dynamic triggering has been limited by our ability to capture the triggering stresses accurately and record the resultant earthquakes. Here we use full waveforms from a dense seismic network and a modern, high‐resolution seismic catalog to measure triggering in Southern California from 2008 to 2017 based on interevent time ratios. We find that the fractional seismicity rate change, which we term triggering intensity or triggerability, as a function of peak strain change for the period of ∼20 s due to distant earthquakes is monotonically increasing and compatible with earlier measurements made with a disjoint data set from 1984 to 2008. A triggering strain of 1 microstrain is equivalent to the local productivity generated by an M 1.8 earthquakes. This result implies that a prediction of seismicity rate changes can be made based on recorded ground shaking using the same formalism as currently used for aftershock prediction. For a teleseismic event, this small level of triggering occurs throughout the region and thus aggregates to a regional effect. We find that the triggering rate decays after the triggerer follows an Omori‐Utsu law, but at a much slower rate than a typical aftershock sequence. The slow decay rate suggests that an ancillary process such as creep or fluid flow must be part of dynamic triggering. The prevalence of triggering in areas of creep or fluid involvement reinforces this inference. A triggering cascade of secondary earthquakes is insufficient to explain the data.

Miyazawa, Masatoshi↗

Response of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers on the U.S. West Coast to Local Sea Surface Temperature Perturbations

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) play a crucial role in the hydroclimate of the U.S. west coast. While the impact of large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) patterns on ARs is well recognized, the specific roles of local SST on ARs have not been systematically investigated. Here, we analyzed the landfalling ARs from two regional climate simulations that differ only in the local SST. With local SST warming, AR frequency increases across the U.S. west coast, with comparable contributions from the spatial expansion of ARs and emergence of new ARs. AR landfalling area, inland intrusion distance, and intensity also increase, with landfalling area showing the largest sensitivity. Although local SST warming only increases the AR moisture by ~0.4%/K, AR-related precipitation increases by 3%/K, demonstrating the important impact of local SST warming on intensifying storms. Hence, local SST is important for accurate depiction of ARs and their precipitation in the western United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Temperature Trends in the Northwestern Tibetan Plateau Constrained by Ice Core Water Isotopes Over the Past 7,000 Years

Abstract The reasons for the Holocene temperature conundrum, known as the inconsistency between the reconstructed cooling and the inferred warming simulations during the Holocene, remain unclear. Temperature reconstructions from the Tibetan Plateau (TP) provide important insights for understanding the Holocene temperature conundrum due to enhanced sensitivity to climate at high altitudes. Given the significant positive correlation between air temperature and δ 18 O in precipitation over the northern TP, the stable isotopic records of ice cores recovered from this area are widely used for paleotemperature reconstruction. Here we present a new high‐resolution δ 18 O record from the Chongce ice cores to bedrock, dated back to 7 ka BP by the accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14 C dating technique. Our reconstructed temperature record shows a long‐term warming trend until ~2 ka BP, followed by an abrupt change to a relatively cool period until the start of the industrial‐era warming. This record challenges the widely recognized Holocene reconstruction from the neighboring Guliya ice core. It is also different from many previous temperature reconstructions, most of which have summer biases and show a long‐term cooling trend over the past two millennia. In addition, our record shows that temperatures during the recent decades are almost the highest during the past 7 ka BP, highlighting the unusual warming forced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases.

Pang, Hongxi↗

Dynamics of Fungal and Bacterial Biomass Carbon in Natural Ecosystems: Site-level Applications of the CLM-Microbe Model

Explicitly representing microbial processes has been recognized as a key improvement to Earth system models for the realistic projections of soil carbon (C) and climate dynamics. The CLM-Microbe model builds upon the CLM4.5 and explicitly represents two major soil microbial groups, fungi and bacteria. Based on the compiled time-series data of fungal (FBC) and bacterial (BBC) biomass C from nine biomes, we parameterized and validated the CLM-Microbe model, and further conducted sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis for simulating C cycling. The model performance was evaluated with mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2) for relative change in FBC and BBC. The CLM-Microbe model is able to reasonably capture the seasonal dynamics of FBC and BBC across biomes, particularly for tropical/subtropical forest, temperate broadleaf forest, and grassland, with MAE < 0.49 for FBC and <0.36 for BBC and RMSE <0.52 FBC and <0.39 for BBC, while R2 values are relatively smaller in some biomes (e.g., shrub) due to small sample sizes. We found good consistencies between simulated and observed FBC (R 2 =0.70, P<0.001) and BBC (R 2 =0.26, P<0.05) on average across biomes, but the model is not able to fully capture the large variation in observed FBC and BBC. Sensitivity analysis shows the most critical parameters are turnover rate, carbon-to-nitrogen ratio of fungi and bacteria, and microbial assimilation efficiency. This study confirms that the explicit representation of soil microbial mechanisms enhances model performance in simulating C variables such as heterotrophic respiration and soil organic C density. The further application of the CLM-Microbe model would deepen our understanding of microbial contributions to the global C cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Typology for Characterizing Human Action in MultiSector Dynamics Models

The role of individual and collective human agency is increasingly recognized as a prominent and arguably paramount determinant in shaping the behavior, trajectory, and vulnerability of multisector systems. This human influence operates at multiple scales: from short-term (hourly to daily) to long-term (annually to centennial) timescales, and from the local to the global, pushing systems towards either desirable or undesirable outcomes. However, the effort to represent human systems in multisector models has been fragmented across philosophical, methodological, and disciplinary lines. To cohere insights across diverse modeling approaches, we present a new typology for classifying how human actors are represented in the broad suite of coupled human-natural system models that are applied in MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) research. The typology conceptualizes a “sector” as a system-of-systems that includes a diverse group of human actors, defined across individual to collective social levels, involved in governing, provisioning, and utilizing products, goods, or services towards some human end. We trace the salient features of modeled representations of human systems by organizing the typology around three key questions: 1) Who are the modeled actors in MSD systems? 2) What are their modeled actions? 3) How and for what purpose are these actors and actions operationalized in a computational model? The typology is used to critically examine existing models and chart the frontier of future human systems modeling for MSD research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Urbanization Amplifies Nighttime Heat Stress on Warmer Days Over the US

Abstract The impact of heat on human health is well‐recognized, with excess heat stress in urban areas (urban heat stress intensity, UHSI) adversely affecting rapidly growing urban populations. However, the physical associations of UHSI with urban heat island (UHI), urban‐induced change in moisture (UQI) and background temperature are not well understood. Multi‐year convection‐permitting simulations over the US show that UHI effect peaks during nighttime (2–5°C) but maximum UQI occurs in daytime (0.01–2 g kg −1 ), resulting in competing effects on UHSI. UHI dynamics dominate the diurnal variations in UHSI with intensified urban‐induced human discomfort during nighttime (3–5 hr day − 1 ). UHSI is very sensitive to the background temperature, especially over the southeastern US, with distinct nightime UHSI amplification of ∼0.5 hr day −1 degree − 1 rise in the background temperature. Spatial variability of UHSI is also dominated by the UHI with possible constrains from background moisture availability.

Sarangi, Chandan↗

Fine Ash-Bearing Particles as a Major Aerosol Component in Biomass Burning Smoke

Biomass burning (BB) events are occurring globally with increasing frequency, and their emissions are having more impacts on human health and climate. Large ash particles are recognized as a BB product with major influences on soil and water environments. However, fine-ash particles, which have diameters smaller than several microns and characteristic morphologies and compositions (mainly Ca and Mg carbonates), have not yet been explicitly considered as a major BB aerosol component either in field observations or climate models. This study measured BB aerosol samples using transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and ion chromatography during the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) campaign. We show that significant amounts of fine ash-bearing particles are transported >100 km from their fire sources. Our environmental chamber experiments suggest that they can act as cloud condensation and ice nuclei. We also found considerable amounts of fine ash-bearing particles in the TEM samples collected during previous campaigns (Biomass Burning Observation Project and Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations). These ash particles are commonly mixed with organic matter and make up ~8% and 5% of BB smoke by number and mass, respectively, in samples collected during the FIREX-AQ campaign. The measured ash-mass concentrations are approximately five times and six times greater than those of BB black carbon and potassium, respectively, scaling to an estimated global emission of 11.6 Tg yr -1 with a range of 8.8–16.3 Tg yr -1 . Better characterization and constraints on these fine ash-bearing particles will improve BB aerosol measurements and strengthen assessments of BB impacts on human health and climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Maritime Aerosol and CCN Profiles Derived From Ship₋Based Measurements Over Eastern North Pacific During MAGIC

Atmospheric aerosols are widely recognized to give rise to a substantial radiative forcing to the climate by scattering and absorbing radiation and by modifying the microphysical, lifetime, and radiative properties of clouds. During the Marine ARM GPCI Investigation of Clouds (MAGIC) over the Eastern North Pacific (ENP), the ship-based measured cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration at 0.2% supersaturation (N CCN,0.2 ) and condensation nuclei concentration (N CN ) had mean values of 116.7 and 219.4 cm ⁻3 , with the highest concentrations found closest to LA due to an increase in aerosol sources. Moving westward, both N CCN,0.2 and N CN gradually decreased until stabilizing near 100 cm ⁻3 and 200 cm ⁻3 , respectively. Using the methods proposed by Ghan and Collins (2004), https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(2004)021<0387:uoisdt>2.0.co;2 and Ghan et al. (2006), https://doi.org/10.1029/2004jd005752, N CCN,0.2 profiles are retrieved using the surface measured N CCN,0.2 as a constraint. For coupled conditions, correlations between the retrieved N CCN,0.2 profiles and cloud-droplet number concentration (N C ) increase from 0.26 at the surface to 0.38 near cloud base, particularly true for non-drizzling clouds. Although the correlations are lower than expected, the percentage increase (46.2%) is encouraging. Finally, the relationships between cloud breakup (CB) and the stratocumulus to cumulus transition (SCT) with environmental conditions and associated aerosols are also studied. The decreased N CN trend east of CB is mainly caused by precipitation scavenging, while the increased N CN trend west of CB is strongly associated with the increased surface wind speed and fewer drizzle events. A further study is needed using high-resolution models to simulate these events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Contrasting Climatic Trends of Atmospheric River Occurrences Over East Asia

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are increasingly recognized as a major driver of hydrological cycles, and are projected to increase around the world under a changing climate. However, the long-term trends of ARs over East Asia (EA) remains less elucidated. Here we fill the gap by developing a longest-ever archive of EA ARs, and examine its role in determining spatiotemporal precipitation variability over EA. We find contrasting changes in AR occurrences, with more frequent ARs in low latitudes but less in high latitudes during the period 1950-2020. The “dipole” pattern of decadal changes in AR occurrences is dictated by atmospheric dynamics (i.e., winds) in the north but thermodynamics (i.e., moisture) in the south. The reduced AR occurrences explain 49% of decreased annual precipitation in northern China, while more AR-related precipitation is observed in southern China. Furthermore, our results provide new insights into regional hydroclimate over EA by connecting it with large-scale weather systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗