Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Sampling error”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,621 records · Page 90

Estimation of coarse dead wood stocks in intact and degraded forests in the Brazilian Amazon using airborne lidar

Coarse dead wood is an important component of forest carbon stocks, but it is rarely measured in Amazon forests and is typically excluded from regional forest carbon budgets. Our study is based on line intercept sampling for fallen coarse dead wood conducted along 103 transects with a total length of 48 km matched with forest inventory plots where standing coarse dead wood was measured in the footprints of larger areas of airborne lidar acquisitions. We developed models to relate lidar metrics and Landsat time series variables to coarse dead wood stocks for intact, logged, burned, or logged and burned forests. Canopy characteristics such as gap area produced significant individual relations for logged forests. For total fallen plus standing coarse dead wood (hereafter defined as total coarse dead wood), the relative root mean square error for models with only lidar metrics ranged from 33 % in logged forest to up to 36 % in burned forests. The addition of historical information improved model performance slightly for intact forests (31 % against 35 % relative root mean square error), not justifying the use of a number of disturbance events from historical satellite images (Landsat) with airborne lidar data. Lidar-derived estimates of total coarse dead wood compared favorably with independent ground-based sampling for areas up to several hundred hectares. The relations found between total coarse dead wood and variables quantifying forest structure derived from airborne lidar highlight the opportunity to quantify this important but rarely measured component of forest carbon over large areas in tropical forests.

Brazilian Amazon↗

Ionospheric calibration for single frequency altimeter measurements

This report investigates the potential of using Global Positioning System (GPS) data and a model of the ionosphere to supply a measure of the sub-satellite Total Electron Current (TEC) of the required accuracy (10 TECU rms) for the purpose of calibrating single frequency radar altimeter measurements. Since climatological (monthly mean) models are known to be in error by as much as 50 percent, this work focused on the Parameterized Real-Time Ionospheric Specification Model (PRISM) which has the capability to improve model accuracy by ingesting (adjusting to) in situ ionospheric measurements. A set of globally distributed TEC measurements were generated using GPS data and were used as input to improve the accuracy of the PRISM model. The adjusted PRISM TEC values were compared to TOPEX dual frequency TEC measurements (which are considered truth) for a number of TOPEX sub-satellite tracks. The adjusted PRISM values generally compared to the TOPEX measurements within the 10 TECU accuracy requirements when the sub-satellite track passed within 300 to 400 km of the GPS TEC data or when the track passed through a night time ionosphere. However, when the sub-satellite points were greater than 300 to 400 km away from the GPS TEC data or when a local noon ionosphere was sampled, the adjusted PRISM values generally differed by greater than 10 TECU rms with data excursions from the TOPEX TEC measurements of as much as 40 TECU (an 8 cm path delay error at K band). Therefore, it can be concluded from this analysis that an unrealistically large number of GPS stations would be needed to predict sub-satellite TEC at the 10 TECU level in the day time ionosphere using a model such as PRISM. However, a technique currently being studied at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) may provide a means of supplying adequate TEC data to meet the 10 TECU ionospheric correction accuracy when using a realistic number of ionospheric stations. This method involves using global GPS TEC data to estimate a global grid of vertical ionospheric TEC as a function of time (i.e. every one half hour) in a sun-fixed longitude frame. Working in a sun-fixed longitude frame, one is not limited by the spatial decorrelation distance of the ionosphere, but instead is limited more by the temporal correlations of the ionosphere in the sun-fixed frame which are a smaller effect. It is the opinion of the authors that using the global sun-fixed TEC grid data, in particular, ingesting it into PRISM, offers the best possibility of meeting the 10 TECU ionospheric correction accuracy requirement, and should be the subject of further study.

Schreiner, William S.↗

The discrete correlation function: A new method for analyzing unevenly sampled variability data

A method of measuring correlation functions without interpolating in the temporal domain, the discrete correlation function, is introduced. It provides an assumption-free representation of the correlation measured in the data, and allows meaningful error estimates. This method does not produce spurious correlations at zero lag due to correlated errors. It is shown that physical interpretation of active galactic nuclei cross-correlation functions requires knowledge of the input function's fluctuation power spectrum, involves model-dependence in the form of symmetry assumptions, and must take into account intrinsic scale bias. This technique was used to find a correlation in published IUE data for NGC 4151, which indicates that the broad C IV feature emanates from a shell 15 to 75 light-days in radius, assuming spherical symmetry.

Edelson, R. A.↗

Emissions Relationships in Western Forest Fire Plumes: I. Reducing the Effect of Mixing Errors on Emission Factors

Studies of emission factors from biomass burning using aircraft data complement the results of lab studies and extend them to conditions of immense hot conflagrations. We illustrate and discuss emission relationships for 422 individual samples from many forest-fire plumes in the Western US. The samples are from two NASA investigations: ARCTAS (Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites) and SEAC4RS (Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds, and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys). This work provides sample-by-sample enhancement ratios (EnRs) for 23 gases and particulate properties. Many EnRs provide candidates for emission ratios (ERs, corresponding to the EnR at the source) when the origin and degree of transformation is understood and appropriate. From these, emission factors (EFs) can be estimated when the fuel dry mass consumed is known or can be estimated using the carbon mass budget approach. This analysis requires understanding the interplay of mixing of the plume with surrounding air. Some initial examples emphasize that measured C(tot) = CO2 + CO in a fire plume does not necessarily describe the emissions of the total carbon liberated in the flames, C(burn). Rather, it represents C(tot) = C(burn) + C(bkgd), which includes possibly varying background concentrations for entrained air. Consequently, we present a simple theoretical description for plume entrainment for multiple tracers from flame to hundreds of kilometers downwind and illustrate some intrinsic linear behaviors. The analysis suggests a Mixed Effects Regression Emission Technique (MERET), which can eliminate occasional strong biases associated with the commonly used normalized excess mixing ratio (NEMR) method. MERET splits C(tot) to reveal C(burn) by exploiting the fact that C(burn) and all tracers respond linearly to dilution, while each tracer has consistent EnR behavior (slope of tracer concentration with respect to C(burn)). The two effects are separable. Two or three or preferably more emission indicators are required as a minimum; here we used ten. Limited variations in the EnRs for each tracer can be incorporated and the variations and co-variations analyzed. The percentage CO yield (or the modified combustion efficiency) plays some role. Other co-relationships involving nitrogen and organic classes are more prominent; these have strong relationships to the C(burn) to O3 emission relationship. In summary, MERET allows fine spatial resolution (EnRs for individual observations) and comparison of similar plumes distant in time and space. Alkene ratios provide us with an approximate photochemical timescale. This allows discrimination and definition, by fire situation, of ERs, allowing us to estimate emission factors.

Chatfield, Robert B.↗

Optical Photometric Observations of GEO Debris

We report on a continuing program of optical photometric measurements of faint orbital debris at geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). These observations can be compared with laboratory studies of actual spacecraft materials in an effort to determine what the faint debris at GEO may be. We have optical observations from Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO) in Chile of two samples of debris: 1. GEO objects discovered in a survey with the University of Michigan's 0.6-m aperture Curtis-Schmidt telescope MODEST (for Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope), and then followed up in real-time with the CTIO/SMARTS 0.9-m for orbits and photometry. Our goal is to determine 6 parameter orbits and measure colors for all objects fainter than R = 15 t11 magnitude that are discovered in the MODEST survey. 2. A smaller sample of high area to mass ratio (AMR) objects discovered independently, and acquired using predictions from orbits derived from independent tracking data collected days prior to the observations. Our optical observations in standard astronomical BVRI filters are done with either telescope, and with the telescope tracking the debris object at the object's angular rate. Observations in different filters are obtained sequentially. We have obtained 71 calibrated sequences of R-B-V-I-R magnitudes. A total of 66 of these sequences have 3 or more good measurements in all filters (not contaminated by star streaks or in Earth's shadow). Most of these sequences show brightness variations, but a small subset has observed brightness variations consistent with that expected from observational errors alone. The majority of these stable objects are redder than a solar color in both B-R and R-I. There is no dependence on color with brightness. For a smaller sample of objects we have observed with synchronized CCD cameras on the two telescopes. The CTIO 0.9-m observes in B, and MODEST in R. The CCD cameras are electronically linked together so that the start time and duration of observations are the same to better than 50 milliseconds. Thus, the B-R color is a true measure of the surface of the debris piece facing the telescopes for that observation. Any change in color reflects a real change in the debris surface. We will compare our observations with models and laboratory measurements of selected surfaces.

Seitzer, Patrick↗

Maximizing machine learning interatomic potential transferability for the discovery of the novel stellated octadecagon Bi18-Pt24 cage structure

Achieving true transferability remains the central challenge for Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials (ML-IAPs) in modeling complex bimetallic nanoclusters across their vast potential energy surfaces. We systematically investigate data selection strategies to optimize the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation (ChIMES) potential for the Bi-Pt nanoclusters by comparing three innovative sampling methods: Principal Component Analysis (PCA)/k-means (structural diversity), t-distributedStochasticNeighborEmbedding (t-SNE)/k-means (force-space diversity), and hierarchical clustering. Quantitatively, the PCA/k-means strategy proved most effective for global accuracy, yielding the lowest force errors and achieving energy root mean square errors (RMSE) values competitive with Density Functional Theory (DFT), demonstrating excellent accuracy (19.16meV/atom). Structural validation on 34 unique DFT-optimized isomers further confirmed the potential’s high fidelity, with the best model PCA/k-means reproducing structures with an average root mean square deviation (RMSD) of 0.10 Å. However, the t-SNE methods, by maximizing diversity in the force space, demonstrated superior extrapolative power, leading to the more precise prediction of a novel stellated octadecagon Bi18⁢Pt24 cage structure, demonstrating the potential for exploring previously unseen morphologies. Our results establish a clear methodology for strategic data sampling that successfully maximizes ML-IAP transferability, providing an accurate and computationally efficient tool that accelerates the theoretical discovery of complex bimetallic architectures.

Vangheluwe, Raphaël [Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS↗

Automated Data Review of Analytical Laboratory Results at Los Alamos National Laboratory - 20299

Newport News Nuclear BWXT-Los Alamos, LLC (N3B) collects samples in support of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) Los Alamos Legacy Cleanup Contract (LLCC). N3B receives and reviews over 1.6 million sample data points annually in support of various ongoing environmental monitoring and remediation projects of the LLCC. N3B must demonstrate and document that reported external analytical laboratory data produced for the LLCC are of sufficient quality to fulfill their intended purpose and to support defensible decision making as described in EPA QA/G4 Guidance for the Data Quality Objectives Process 1994. In 2018, N3B assumed management of the LLCC along with the Environmental Information Management (EIM) database that contains all historical and current environmental data associated with the LLCC. The entire EIM database is shared between N3B, Triad National Security, LLC (Triad), and New Mexico Environment Department (NMED). These three parties jointly manage the database, its configuration, and changes / updates. All environmental data that are entered into EIM are updated and available, on a daily basis, in the linked public database Intellus New Mexico (Intellus). The quality and defensibility of the environmental data generated from sampling activities is a key component of an effective remediation process. Providing quality data is accomplished through a data assessment process that includes examination, verification, and validation. Examination is the assessment of completeness of the deliverables, identification of any reporting errors, and determining the usability of the data based on the laboratory's evaluation of its data as described in the case narrative received with the data. Verification consists of an evaluation of the Electronic Data Deliverables (EDD) data report to determine the extent to which the external analytical laboratories met method and contract-specific quality control and reporting requirements. Validation consists of determining the data quality and the extent to which the external analytical laboratories accurately and completely reported all sample and quality control results and satisfied all contract requirements. EIM contains an automatic Data Validation Module which performs automated data review (DVM ADR). DVM ADR is a tool to assist in the validation process. When DVM ADR is used in conjunction with manual examination of sample data packages, the combination of the two will meet and exceed the requirements of verification. N3B recognized an opportunity for process improvement, focusing on DVM ADR configuration and enhancements in EIM. Testing EIM's configuration provided proof of the DVM ADR's capabilities and flexibility to accurately perform routine data checks based on analytical methods and regulatory requirements. In addition, the DVM ADR module was improved through enhancements for all analytes, particularly upgrades for radiochemistry data. Extensive testing of the DVM ADR module occurred using EDDs from actual laboratory analyses on the EIM testing site. During this process, N3B manipulated EDD information to verify that the actual outcomes matched the expected outcomes. The results of this testing were shared with the database architects, and configuration improvements were identified to address these results. During this process, N3B identified that the radiochemical DVM ADR capabilities were underutilized, and so enhanced the DVM ADR functionality with respect to radioanalytical assessment. N3B environmental data uploads to Intellus on a daily basis from EIM, once the analytical data undergoes examination and verification. As such, it is important to have a high level of confidence in the quality and defensibility of the data. The process of manual examination, along with the DVM ADR, in conjunction with full validation of a percentage the data specified through the Data Quality Objectives greatly increases efficiency of data review and confidence level of the quality of the data, and gives the project managers, governmental offices, and the public expedited access to high-quality data. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Constrained variational optimization of counting-time allocation in sequential scattering measurements: Application to Bonse–Hart USANS

Sequential scattering measurements are often performed under a fixed experimental-time budget, even though the expected count rate varies strongly across the measured coordinate. When the dwell time at each measurement position can be controlled independently, this variation creates a general resource-allocation problem: how should the available time be distributed to minimize the uncertainty of the reconstructed profile? We formulate this problem as a constrained variational optimization for measurements governed by Poisson counting statistics. When each measurement is treated independently, minimizing the averaged squared relative uncertainty yields an inverse-square-root intensity allocation. The formulation is then generalized to include correlations between neighboring measurements and an instrumental resolution operator, leading to an allocation criterion that equalizes the marginal reduction in posterior uncertainty per unit measurement time. Bonse–Hart ultra-small-angle neutron scattering (USANS), in which reciprocal space is sampled sequentially through analyzer-angle stepping, provides an experimentally grounded application. Computational benchmarking shows that the optimized allocation outperforms uniform-time and constant-relative-error strategies, while application to an experimentally measured graphite USANS profile from the Spallation Neutron Source, using Poisson resampling under alternative schedules, demonstrates how counting time should be redistributed toward weak-intensity regions under an identical total duration. The resulting framework applies to sequential scattering and related scanning measurements whenever local dwell times are adjustable and directly determine the measurement uncertainties, and when the relevant correlation and instrumental-response models are available.

Tung, Chi-Huan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000221972074)↗

Optimal 1D Ly α forest power spectrum estimation – III. DESI early data

ABSTRACT The 1D power spectrum P1D of the Ly α forest provides important information about cosmological and astrophysical parameters, including constraints on warm dark matter models, the sum of the masses of the three neutrino species, and the thermal state of the intergalactic medium. We present the first measurement of P1D with the quadratic maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey early data sample. This early sample of 54 600 quasars is already comparable in size to the largest previous studies, and we conduct a thorough investigation of numerous instrumental and analysis systematic errors to evaluate their impact on DESI data with QMLE. We demonstrate the excellent performance of the spectroscopic pipeline noise estimation and the impressive accuracy of the spectrograph resolution matrix with 2D image simulations of raw DESI images that we processed with the DESI spectroscopic pipeline. We also study metal line contamination and noise calibration systematics with quasar spectra on the red side of the Ly α emission line. In a companion paper, we present a similar analysis based on the Fast Fourier Transform estimate of the power spectrum. We conclude with a comparison of these two approaches and discuss the key sources of systematic error that we need to address with the upcoming DESI Year 1 analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Magnetic dilution effect and topological phase transitions in (Mn 1- x Pb x )Bi 2 Te 4

We report, as the first intrinsic antiferromagnetic topological insulator, MnBi 2 Te 4 has provided a material platform to realize various emergent phenomena arising from the interplay of magnetism and band topology. Here, by investigating (Mn 1-x Pb x )Bi 2 Te 4 (0 ≤ x ≤ 0.82) single crystals via the x-ray, electrical transport, magnetometry and neutron measurements, chemical analysis, external pressure, and first-principles calculations, we reveal the magnetic dilution effect on the magnetism and band topology in MnBi 2 Te 4 . With increasing x, both lattice parameters a and c expand linearly by around 2%. All samples undergo the paramagnetic to A-type antiferromagnetic transition with the Néel temperature decreasing lineally from 24 K at x = 0 to 2 K at x = 0.82. Our neutron data refinement of the x = 0.37 sample indicates that the ordered moment is 4.3(1)μ B /Mn at 4.85 K and the amount of the Mn Bi antisites is negligible within the error bars. Isothermal magnetization data reveal a slight decrease of the interlayer plane-plane antiferromagnetic exchange interaction and a monotonic decrease of the magnetic anisotropy due to diluting magnetic ions and enlarging the unit cell. For x = 0.37, the application of external pressures enhances the interlayer antiferromagnetic coupling, boosting the Néel temperature at a rate of 1.4 K/GPa and the saturation field at a rate of 1.8 T/GPa. Furthermore, our first-principles calculations reveal that the band inversion in the two end materials, MnBi 2 Te 4 and PbBi 2 Te 4 , occurs at the Γ and Z point, respectively, while two gapless points appear at x = 0.44 and x = 0.66, suggesting possible topological phase transitions with doping.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Multivariate Predictive Analytics of Wind Power Data for Robust Control of Energy Storage

Short-term forecasting is frequently identified as an important tool for the effective management of wind generation. However, forecasting errors, inherent to the point forecasts, increase requirements for energy storage and can affect optimal system operation. Probabilistic forecasts can help tackle this issue by providing a proper characterization of forecasting errors in the optimization process. This paper proposes a multivariate model of forecasting data for wind generation. Predictive uncertainty intervals of wind power can be obtained by sampling from the proposed model. The main goal is to use empirical data models without linear or Gaussian approximations of the distributional or temporal variations. The predictive modeling is utilized within a case study of an energy storage system. Finally, a modified robust convex programming is used to maintain the practical robustness and feasibility of the solution based on the sampled scenarios from the model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

SU-F-J-10: Sliding Mode Control of a SMA Actuated Active Flexible Needle for Medical Procedures

Purpose: In medical interventional procedures such as brachytherapy, ablative therapies and biopsy precise steering and accurate placement of needles are very important for anatomical obstacle avoidance and accurate targeting. This study presents the efficacy of a sliding mode controller for Shape Memory Alloy (SMA) actuated flexible needle for medical procedures. Methods: Second order system dynamics of the SMA actuated active flexible needle was used for deriving the sliding mode control equations. Both proportional-integral-derivative (PID) and adaptive PID sliding mode control (APIDSMC) algorithms were developed and implemented. The flexible needle was attached at the end of a 6 DOF robotic system. Through LabView programming environment, the control commands were generated using the PID and APIDSMC algorithms. Experiments with artificial tissue mimicking phantom were performed to evaluate the performance of the controller. The actual needle tip position was obtained using an electromagnetic (EM) tracking sensor (Aurora, NDI, waterloo, Canada) at a sampling period of 1ms. During experiment, external disturbances were created applying force and thermal shock to investigate the robustness of the controllers. Results: The root mean square error (RMSE) values for APIDSMC and PID controllers were 0.75 mm and 0.92 mm, respectively, for sinusoidal reference input. In the presence of external disturbances, the APIDSMC controller showed much smoother and less overshooting response compared to that of the PID controller. Conclusion: Performance of the APIDSMC was superior to the PID controller. The APIDSMC was proved to be more effective controller in compensating the SMA uncertainties and external disturbances with clinically acceptable thresholds.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Near-Efficient and Non-Asymptotic Multiway Inference

We establish non-asymptotic efficiency guarantees for tensor decomposition–based inference in count data models. Under a Poisson framework, we consider two related goals: (i) parametric inference , the estimation of the full distributional parameter tensor, and (ii) multiway analysis , the recovery of its canonical polyadic (CP) decomposition factors. Our main result shows that in the rank-one setting, a rank-constrained maximum-likelihood estimator achieves multiway analysis with variance matching the Cramér–Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) up to absolute constants and logarithmic factors. This provides a general framework for studying “near-efficient” multiway estimators in finite-sample settings. For higher ranks, we illustrate that our multiway estimator may not attain the CRLB; nevertheless, CP-based parametric inference remains nearly minimax optimal, with error bounds that improve on prior work by offering more favorable dependence on the CP rank. Numerical experiments corroborate near-efficiency in the rank-one case and highlight the efficiency gap in higher-rank scenarios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Covariance operator estimation: Sparsity, lengthscale, and ensemble Kalman filters

This paper investigates covariance operator estimation via thresholding. For Gaussian random fields with approximately sparse covariance operators, we establish non-asymptotic bounds on the estimation error in terms of the sparsity level of the covariance and the expected supremum of the field. We prove that thresholded estimators enjoy an exponential improvement in sample complexity compared with the standard sample covariance estimator if the field has a small correlation lengthscale. As an application of the theory, we study thresholded estimation of covariance operators within ensemble Kalman filters.

Covariance operator estimation↗

Estimation of irrigated land using Landsat digital data

Techniques developed by the University of California and NASA for the utilization of multitemporal Landsat digital data in estimating and mapping irrigated land are presented. Three dates of Landsat were registered to each other and to a USGS 7.5 minute quadrangle map base for approximately 1.9 million acres of land. Other data registered include county boundaries, land use stratification, and digitized ground data. To identify irrigated land, an indicator was used which consisted of the ratio of MSS Band 7 to MSS Band 5 (the 7/5 ratio). A threshold 7/5 irrigated land value was determined for each date, as actively growing land generally has a higher 7/5 ratio than other cover classes. An estimate of irrigated land was determined by Landsat classification with ground data, at a relative standard error of + or - 7.98% at the 95% confidence interval. Mapping evaluation reveals a 94% accuracy, a 7.4% omission rate, and a 6.3% commission rate. In addition, a sample unit size evaluation recommends a 1-1 1/2 square mile sample range.

Brown, C. E.↗

Magnetic constraints on early lunar evolution revisited: Limits on accuracy imposed by methods of paleointensity measurements

It is impossible to carry out conventional paleointensity experiments requiring repeated heating and cooling to 770 C without chemical, physical or microstructural changes on lunar samples. Non-thermal methods of paleointensity determination have been sought: the two anhysteretic remanent magnetization (ARM) methods, and the saturation isothermal remanent magnetization (IRMS) method. Experimental errors inherent in these alternative approaches have been investigated to estimate the accuracy limits on the calculated paleointensities. Results are indicated in this report.

Banerjee, S. K.↗

Investigation of technology needs for avoiding helicopter pilot error related accidents

Pilot error which is cited as a cause or related factor in most rotorcraft accidents was examined. Pilot error related accidents in helicopters to identify areas in which new technology could reduce or eliminate the underlying causes of these human errors were investigated. The aircraft accident data base at the U.S. Army Safety Center was studied as the source of data on helicopter accidents. A randomly selected sample of 110 aircraft records were analyzed on a case-by-case basis to assess the nature of problems which need to be resolved and applicable technology implications. Six technology areas in which there appears to be a need for new or increased emphasis are identified.

Chais, R. I.↗

Using radar ground-truth to validate and improve the location accuracy of a lightning direction-finding network

A technique is described in which isolated radar echoes associated with clusters of lightning strikes are used to validate and improve the location accuracy of a lightning-direction-finding network. Using this technique, site errors of a magnetic direction-finding network for locating lightning strikes to ground were accurately determined. The technique offers advantages over existing techniques in that large sample sizes are readily attainable over a broad area on a regular basis; the technique can also provide additional constraints to redundant data methods such as that described by Orville (1987). Since most lightning strike networks have either partial or full weather radar coverage, the technique is practical for all but a few users.

Goodman, Steven J.↗