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NASA NTRS2017

Coilgun Acceleration Model Containing Interactions Between Multiple Coils

Electromagnetic (EM) accelerators have the potential to fill a performance range not currently being met by conventional chemical and electric propulsion systems by providing a specific impulse of 600-1000 seconds and a thrust-to-power ratio greater than 200 mN/kW. A propulsion system based on EM acceleration of small projectiles has the traditional advantages of using a pulsed system, including precise control over a range of thrust and power levels as well as rapid response and repetition rates. Furthermore, EM accelerators have lower power requirements than conventional electric propulsion systems since no plasma creation is necessary. A coilgun is a specific type of EM device where a high-current pulse through a coil of wire interacts with a conductive projectile via an induced magnetic field to accelerate the projectile. There are no physical or electrical connections to the projectile, which leads to less system degradation and a longer life expectancy. Multi-staging a coilgun by adding multiple turns on a single coil or on the projectile increases the inductance, thus permitting acceleration of the projectile to higher velocities. Previously, a simplified problem of modeling an inductively-coupled, single-coil coilgun using a circuit-based analysis coupled to the one-dimensional momentum equation through Lenz's law was solved; however, the analysis was only conducted on uncoupled coils. The problem is significantly more complicated when multiple, independently-powered coils simultaneously operate and interact with each other and the projectile through induced magnetic fields. This paper presents a multi-coil model developed with the magnetostatic finite element solver QuickField. In the model, mutual inductance values between pairs of conductors were found by first computing the magnetic field energy for different cases where individual coils or multiple coils carry current, then integrating over the entire finite element domain for each case, and finally using the definition of inductive energy storage to solve for the self and mutual inductance. The electric circuit model is coupled to the projectile through Lenz's law, with the coils coupled through mutual inductance but able to be independently triggered at different times to optimize the acceleration profile. This initial model to predict the behavior of a projectile's acceleration through a coupled, multi-coil coilgun increases the potential of building a highly efficient coilgun thruster with key advantages over other EM thruster systems, thus making it a promising candidate for satellite main propulsion or attitude control thrusters.

Liu, Connie↗

NASA NTRS2021

Tropical Cyclones in Global Storm-Resolving Models

Recent progress in computing and model development has initiated the era of global storm-resolving modeling, and with it the potential to transform weather and climate prediction. Within the general theme of vetting this new class of models, the present study evaluates nine global-storm resolving models in their ability to simulate tropical cyclones (TCs). Results indicate that, broadly speaking, the models produce realistic TCs and remove longstanding issues known from global models such as the deficiency in accurately simulating TC intensity. However, TCs are strongly affected by model formulation, and all models suffer from unique biases regarding the number of TCs, intensity, size, and structure. Some models simulated TCs better than others, but no single model was superior in every way. The overall results indicate that global storm-resolving models can open a new chapter in TC prediction, but they need to be improved to unleash their full potential.

Falko Judt↗

NASA NTRS2024

DAVINCI: Venus Atmospheric Model Comparisons

The Deep Atmosphere Venus Investigation of Noble gases, Chemistry, and Imaging(DAVINCI) mission aims to answer long-standing questions regarding Venus’ origin using Zephyr, an atmospheric descent probe. Zephyr will be the first probe to take high-resolution aerial photographs of a mountainous tesserae surface as it descends over the Alpha Regio highlands region, which has the oldest surfaces of Venus. The Zephyr’s descent trajectory that determines the touchdown in the Alpha Regio, which is crucial for the DAVINCI mission, depends on Venus’ atmospheric properties and winds. Unfortunately, the atmospheric data for Venus from previous missions is sparse. Therefore, it is essential to consider various atmospheric models and scenarios from past flight data to predict Zephyr’s flight performance, specifically landing ellipse. To this end, this work compares three atmospheric models: the Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Venus-GRAM), the Venus Climate Database(VCD), and an empirical wind model developed by Ralph Lorenz for the DAVINCI trajectory simulation and modeling. This paper compares the mean and variations of different atmospheric properties and winds from these atmospheric models. In addition, this work combines the atmospheric properties and the wind variability from the Venus-GRAM with the winds from the Lorenz-based model to have more stressing Venus wind dispersions that allow for more conservative trajectory analysis. Furthermore, this work relies on the DAVINCI landing ellipse size as a metric to measure how robust the trajectory analysis will be to the change in the atmospheric properties and winds of the Venus atmosphere.

Pardha Sai Chadalavada↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning for Gearbox Fault Prediction by Using Both Scada and Modeled Data

This presentation outlines the work in the paper titled "Prognostics of Wind Turbine Gearbox Bearing Failures Using SCADA and Modeled Data" published by the PHM Society and presented at its 2020 annual conference. It is accessible at https://papers.phmsociety.org/index.php/phmconf/article/download/1292/862. The technical work is on machine learning approaches for prognostics for gearbox faults. The methodology combines SCADA time series data and physics domain modeling data, derived from the models developed by the NREL team, as inputs to machine learning models to predict gearbox bearing failures with one month lead time. Based on SCADA data, modeled data, and bearing failure log data from an actual wind plant, the performances of different machine-learning models on unseen data are then evaluated using industry-standard metrics such as precision, recall, and F1 score, and AUC (area under receiver operating characteristic curve). Results show the overall system performance enhancement in predicting bearing failure when modeled data are included with SCADA data. The reduction in terms of false alarms is about 50%, and improvement in terms of precision, and F1 score, and AUC is about 33%, and 12%, and 6% respectively, based on the best modeling case in this study.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗

NASA NTRS2009

Integration of Weather Data into Airspace and Traffic Operations Simulation (ATOS) for Trajectory- Based Operations Research

Explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with the National Airspace System (NAS) structure is needed to improve the development and execution of operationally effective weather impact mitigation plans and has become increasingly important due to NAS congestion and associated increases in delay. This article considers several contemporary weather-air traffic management (ATM) integration applications: the use of probabilistic forecasts of visibility at San Francisco, the Route Availability Planning Tool to facilitate departures from the New York airports during thunderstorms, the estimation of en route capacity in convective weather, and the application of mixed-integer optimization techniques to air traffic management when the en route and terminal capacities are varying with time because of convective weather impacts. Our operational experience at San Francisco and New York coupled with very promising initial results of traffic flow optimizations suggests that weather-ATM integrated systems warrant significant research and development investment. However, they will need to be refined through rapid prototyping at facilities with supportive operational users We have discussed key elements of an emerging aviation weather research area: the explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with NAS structure to improve the effectiveness and timeliness of weather impact mitigation plans. Our insights are based on operational experiences with Lincoln Laboratory-developed integrated weather sensing and processing systems, and derivative early prototypes of explicit ATM decision support tools such as the RAPT in New York City. The technical components of this effort involve improving meteorological forecast skill, tailoring the forecast outputs to the problem of estimating airspace impacts, developing models to quantify airspace impacts, and prototyping automated tools that assist in the development of objective broad-area ATM strategies, given probabilistic weather forecasts. Lincoln Laboratory studies and prototype demonstrations in this area are helping to define the weather-assimilated decision-making system that is envisioned as a key capability for the multi-agency Next Generation Air Transportation System [1]. The Laboratory's work in this area has involved continuing, operations-based evolution of both weather forecasts and models for weather impacts on the NAS. Our experience has been that the development of usable ATM technologies that address weather impacts must proceed via rapid prototyping at facilities whose users are highly motivated to participate in system evolution.

Peters, Mark↗

DOE OSTI2024

Solidification and crystallographic texture modeling of laser powder bed fusion Ti-6Al-4V using finite difference-monte carlo method

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) additive manufacturing makes near-net-shaped parts with reduced material cost and time, rising as a promising technology to fabricate Ti-6Al-4V, a widely used titanium alloy in aerospace and medical industries. However, LPBF Ti-6Al-4V parts produced with 67° rotation between layers, a scan strategy commonly used to reduce microstructure and property inhomogeneity, have varying grain morphologies and weak crystallographic textures that change depending on processing parameters. Here, this study predicts LPBF Ti-6Al-4V solidification at three energy levels using a finite difference-Monte Carlo method and validates the simulations with large-area electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) scans. The developed model accurately shows that a <001> texture forms at low energy and a <111> texture occurs at higher energies parallel to the build direction but with a lower strength than the textures observed from EBSD. A validated and well-established method of combining spatial correlation and general spherical harmonics representation of texture is developed to calculate a difference score between simulations and experiments. The quantitative comparison enables effective fine-tuning of nucleation density (N 0 ) input, which shows a nonlinear relationship with increasing energy level. Future improvements in texture prediction code and a more comprehensive study of N 0 with different energy levels will further advance the optimization of LPBF Ti-6Al-4V components. These developments contribute a novel understanding of crystallographic texture formation in LPBF Ti-6Al-4V, the development of robust model validation and calibration pipeline methodologies, and provide a platform for mechanical property prediction and process parameter optimization.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Development/Modernization of an Advanced Non-Light Water Reactor Probabilistic Risk Assessment

In 2015, GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy (GEH) teamed with Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) to perform Research and Development (R&D) of next-generation Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methodologies for the modernization of an advanced non-Light Water Reactor (non-LWR) PRA. This effort built upon a PRA developed in the early 1990s for GEH’s Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module (PRISM) Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR). The work had four main tasks: internal events development modeling the risk from the reactor for hazards occurring at-power internal to the plant; an all hazards scoping review to analyze the risk at a high level from external hazards such as earthquakes and high winds; an all modes scoping review to understand the risk at a high level from operating modes other than at-power; and risk insights to integrate the results from each of the three phases above. To achieve these objectives, GEH and Argonne used and adapted proven PRA methodologies and techniques to build a modern non-LWR all hazards/all modes PRA. The teams also advanced non-LWR PRA methodologies, which is an important outcome from this work. This report summarizes the project outcomes in two major phases. The first phase presents the methodologies developed for non-LWR PRAs. The methodologies are grouped by scope, from Internal Events At-Power (IEAP) to hazards analysis to modes analysis. The second phase presents details of the PRISM PRA model which was developed as a validation of the non-LWR methodologies. The PRISM PRA was performed in detail for IEAP, and at a broader level for hazards and modes. In addition to contributing methodologies, this project developed risk insights applicable to non-LWR PRA, including focus-areas for future R&D, and conclusions about the PRISM design.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Using Calibrated Water Data for Preliminary Validation of the SRT Code for Advanced Reactors

Recent interest and corresponding progress worldwide regarding advanced nuclear reactors has renewed focus on their performance and related safety assessments. Specifically, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has emphasized the importance of mechanistic approaches to source term analysis for advanced reactor licensing applications, which attempt to realistically account radionuclide transport and retention phenomena. Further model development is required due to the numerous and complex physical and chemical phenomena associated with mechanistic source term analyses. Reflecting the need for modeling advancement, Argonne National Laboratory developed a mechanistic source term analysis tool for sodium fast reactors. The Simplified Radionuclide Transport (SRT) code describes fuel pin failure (for simulating the initial condition at the point of fuel pin breach), bubble scrubbing, deposition, leakage and following environmental impact. In the current work, a validation study of the SRT bubble scrubbing model is performed using a water-loop experiment performed at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Through the analysis, the approach and fundamental bubble scrubbing models in SRT, which examine the removal of aerosols within the bubble as it is transported through a pool, have been widely evaluated. The results of the assessment demonstrate a high level of agreement in the regions of greater aerosol size. In the parameter range of minimal aerosol removal, the simulation slightly underpredicts the experiment results; however, considering the scale of plots and huge uncertainties inherently included, the deviation can be judged to be minor and would produce a conservative result. In addition, uncertainty analysis has been further refined to reflect the experimental distribution of parameters including aerosol sizes, which induces a span of performance for each representative aerosol size. Based upon the initial validation results along with uncertainty effects, SRT is expected to provide meaningful insights for the analysis of bubble scrubbing. Future sodium-loop tests will provide further validation basis.

Kam, Dong Hoon↗

DOE OSTI2024

A numerical study of process complexity in permafrost dominated regions

Numerical modeling of permafrost dynamics requires adequate representation of atmospheric and surface processes, a reasonable parameter estimation strategy, and site-specific model development. The three main research objectives of the study are: (i) to propose a novel methodology that determines the required level of surface process complexity of permafrost models by conducting parameter sensitivity and calibration, (ii) to design and compare three numerical models of increasing surface process complexity, and (iii) to calibrate and validate the numerical models at the Yakou catchment on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as an exemplary study site. The calibration was carried out by coupling the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (numerical model) and PEST (calibration tool). Simulation results showed that (i) A simple numerical model that considers only subsurface processes can simulate active layer development with the same accuracy as other more complex models that include surface processes. (ii) Peat and mineral soil layer permeability, Van Genuchten alpha, and porosity are highly sensitive. (iii) Liquid precipitation aids in increasing the rate of permafrost degradation. (iv) Deposition of snow insulated the subsurface during the thaw initiation period. We have developed and released an integrated code that couples the numerical software ATS to the calibration software PEST. The numerical model can be further used to determine the impacts of climate change on permafrost degradation.

Calibration↗

DOE OSTI2017

Computational Approach for Improving Three-Dimensional Sub-Surface Earth Structure for Regional Earthquake Hazard Simulations in the San Francisco Bay Area

In our Exascale Computing Project (ECP) we seek to simulate earthquake ground motions at much higher frequency than is currently possible. Previous simulations in the SFBA were limited to 0.5-1 Hz or lower (Aagaard et al. 2008, 2010), while we have recently simulated the response to 5 Hz. In order to improve confidence in simulated ground motions, we must accurately represent the three-dimensional (3D) sub-surface material properties that govern seismic wave propagation over a broad region. We are currently focusing on the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) with a Cartesian domain of size 120 x 80 x 35 km, but this area will be expanded to cover a larger domain. Currently, the United States Geologic Survey (USGS) has a 3D model of the SFBA for seismic simulations. However, this model suffers from two serious shortcomings relative to our application: 1) it does not fit most of the available low frequency (< 1 Hz) seismic waveforms from moderate (magnitude M 3.5-5.0) earthquakes; and 2) it is represented with much lower resolution than necessary for the high frequency simulations (> 5 Hz) we seek to perform. The current model will serve as a starting model for full waveform tomography based on 3D sensitivity kernels. This report serves as the deliverable for our ECP FY2017 Quarter 4 milestone to FY 2018 “Computational approach to developing model updates”. We summarize the current state of 3D seismic simulations in the SFBA and demonstrate the performance of the USGS 3D model for a few selected paths. We show the available open-source waveform data sets for model updates, based on moderate earthquakes recorded in the region. We present a plan for improving the 3D model utilizing the available data and further development of our SW4 application. We project how the model could be improved and present options for further improvements focused on the shallow geotechnical layers using dense passive recordings of ambient and human-induced noise.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2005

Ocean Tide Loading Computation

September 15,2003 through May 15,2005 This grant funds the maintenance, updating, and distribution of programs for computing ocean tide loading, to enable the corrections for such loading to be more widely applied in space- geodetic and gravity measurements. These programs, developed under funding from the CDP and DOSE programs, incorporate the most recent global tidal models developed from Topex/Poscidon data, and also local tide models for regions around North America; the design of the algorithm and software makes it straightforward to combine local and global models.

Agnew, Duncan Carr↗

DOE OSTI2017

Development of a bayesian belief network model for the software reliability assessment of nuclear digital I and C safety systems - 206

Since the digital instrumentation and control systems are expected to play an important role for the safety systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs), the need has emerged to not only establish a basis for incorporating software behavior into digital I and C system reliability models, but also to quantify the failure probability of the software used in NPP digital protection systems. In this study, a Bayesian belief network (BBN) model is developed to quantitatively assess software reliability by estimating the number of faults in a software program considering its software development life cycle (SDLC). The model structure and parameters are established based on the information applicable to NPP safety-related systems and the evidence used to construct and quantify the BBN model was collected from three stages of expert elicitation. The software failure probability is estimated from the number of residual defects in a software program at the end of SDLC phase. As a case study, the BBN model was applied to quantify the software reliability of a typical digital protection software having the size of 50 function points and having the Medium development and validation and verification (V and V) qualities. The developed model can be applied to estimate the failure probability for both developing and deployed safety-related NPP software, and such results can be used to evaluate the quality of the digital I and C systems in addition to estimating potential reactor risk due to software failure. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sandia Electromagnetic Environment Simulator Facilities

Sandia National Laboratories’ (Sandia’s) Electrical Sciences Group (1350) provides a spectrum of solutions for electromagnetic (EM) environment effects on electrical systems to advance physical understanding including experiments, analytical and numerical model development leveraging first-principles physics, and high-performance computational modeling and simulation (M&S). The six departments in the Electrical Sciences Group provide analysis, design guidance, and experiments in support of nuclear weapons qualification in normal, abnormal, and hostile environments, as well as research and development for advanced electrical systems that can operate through these environments. This document is intended to provide a quick summary of Sandia’s EM experimental facilities, most of which provide unique national capabilities.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Process Anomaly Detection for Sparsely Labeled Events in Nuclear Power Plants

An essential aspect of online monitoring, subtle anomaly detection increases the detection lead time for equipment failure and enables a nuclear power plant (NPP) to mitigate unexpected partial or full outages, resulting in significant cost saving to the plant. Once an anomaly is detected by plant staff, its cause and severity are investigated. Because the vast majority of anomalies require some level of investigation, including some that require time-consuming examination, before they are passed over to the engineering organization for further analysis, plants are often equipped with tools to assist the staff in performing anomaly detection. Those tools operate as a black box and are often based on statistical methods that establish sensor correlations using preconfigured mathematical models and flag correlation deviations as anomalies. Due to the number of anomalies detected at a given NPP on a daily basis, a significant number of flagged anomalies usually await examination for days or weeks. A primary cause of this backlog is that the methods used by the tools generate many false positives. Though this is usually attributed to oversensitive model settings due to very narrow normal operation bands, it can also be associated with the model development being inadequate for the process being monitored, or with missing model inputs that could have explained misclassified positives. The performance of anomaly detection tools impacts their plant acceptance and utilization, especially when the effort to address false positives generated by the tool depletes the value or cost saved by using that tool. Thus, means to advance anomaly detection performance have been investigated by the Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability program. Previous and ongoing efforts have targeted unsupervised machine-learning (ML) methods, which do not require the labeling of any data fed into the ML model. By contrast, in supervised anomaly detection methods, every data point is labeled as either a normal or abnormal process condition, and the model is trained to replicate the classification process. Supervised methods usually outperform unsupervised methods, due to the added value in differentiating normal from anomalous states of the monitored process. An NPP’s corrective action program requires it to track and document, via a dedicated report, the resolution of any issues that occur within the plant. Once created, each report is reviewed by a plant screening committee, and several classifications and decisions are made. Recently, a collaborating NPP developed an artificial intelligence and ML-based classifier to categorize a condition report (CR) into classes that can serve to label the data as normal or anomalous. Applying CRs as labels represents a semi-supervised use case. Semi-supervised ML assumes that labels exist for some data points (i.e., labeled anomalies, in this case) but not for the rest. In this effort, semi-supervised ML methods were used to fuse data from CRs with anomaly detection methods in order to test the hypothesis that partially labeled anomalies would improve the accuracy of the anomaly detection methods. Specifically, two methods were used. The first is the deep Semi-supervised Anomaly Detection (deep SAD) method, which can handle labels ranging from fully unsupervised to fully supervised cases. The second is a newly designed ML method developed specifically for this effort and referred to as the high-order feature (HOF)-based method. To evaluate these two methods in controlled environments, synthetic data generators were developed and used. The first datasets used a spring-mass-damper (SMD) system simulator commonly found in mechanical engineering references. This was used to create two use cases: a one- and a three-mass system. Anomalies were introduced by changing the spring and damper coefficients while the system was actuated by random forces. The second datasets used the commercial Dymola-Modelica software to build a simplified nuclear reactor model. Anomalies were added in the form of corrupted sensor readings and/or control commands. The deep SAD method was tested using the SMD system, while the HOF method was tested using both datasets. Application of the deep SAD semi-supervised ML method demonstrated that labels can generate increased confidence in detecting true anomalies. This helped increase the number of true positives and decrease the number of false negatives—something that would aid in addressing the backlog of possible anomalies. Application of the HOF method demonstrated that labels can aid in down selecting from a candidate set of features to a more optimal subset in order to better differentiate between normal and anomalous conditions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2018

Integrated Modeling Approach for the Development of Climate-Informed, Actionable Information

Flooding is a prevalent natural disaster with both short and long-term social, economic, and infrastructure impacts. Changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation (including rain, snow, and rain on snow) events create challenges for the planning and management of resilient infrastructure and communities. While there is general acknowledgement that new infrastructure design should account for future climate change, no clear methods or actionable information is available to community planners and designers to ensure resilient design considering an uncertain climate future. This research used climate projections to drive high-resolution hydrology and flood models to evaluate social, economic, and infrastructure resilience for the Snohomish Watershed, WA, U.S.A. The proposed model chain has been calibrated and validated. Based on the established model chain, the peaks of precipitation and streamflows were found to shift from spring and summer to earlier winter season. The nonstationarity of peak discharges was discovered with more frequent and severe flood risks projected. The peak discharges were also projected to decrease for a certain period in the near future, which might be due to the reduced rain-on-snow events. This research was expected to provide a clear method for the incorporation of climate science in flood resilience analysis and to also provide actionable information relative to the frequency and intensity of future precipitation events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

A unified framework for polycrystal plasticity with grain boundary evolution

Plastic deformation in polycrystals is governed by the interplay between intra-granular slip and grain boundary-mediated plasticity. However, while the role played by bulk dislocations is relatively well-understood, the contribution of grain boundaries (GBs) has only recently begun to be studied. GB plasticity is known to play a key role along with bulk plasticity under a wide range of conditions, such as dynamic recovery, superplasticity, severe plastic deformation, etc., and developing models capable of simultaneously capturing GB and bulk plasticity has become a topic of high relevance. In this paper we develop a thermodynamically-consistent polycrystal plasticity model capable of simulating a variety of grain boundary-mediated plastic processes in conjunction with bulk dislocation slip. The model starts from the description of a single crystal and creates lattice strain-free polycrystalline configurations by using a specially-designed multiplicative decomposition developed by the authors. This leads to the introduction of a particular class of geometrically necessary dislocations (GND) that define fundamental GB features such as misorientation and inclination. The evolution of the system is based on an energy functional that uses a non-standard function of the GND tensor to account for the grain boundary energy, as well as for the standard elastic energy. Our implementation builds on smooth descriptions of GBs inspired on diffuse-interface models of grain evolution for numerical convenience. Here we demonstrate the generality and potential of the methodology by simulating a wide variety of phenomena such as shear-induced GB sliding, coupled GB motion, curvature-induced grain rotation and shrinkage, and polygonization via dislocation sub-grain formation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2018

The Variable Saturation Hydraulic Conductivity Method for Improving Soil Water Content Simulation in EPIC and APEX Models

Core Ideas We propose VSHC for calculating soil water percolation in continuous models. VSHC relates permeability to daily hydraulic properties to estimate hydraulic conductivity. VSHC performed well at field scale and improved estimates of peak streamflows. Soil water percolation is a key process in the life cycle of water in fields, watersheds, and river basins. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) and the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) are continuous models developed for evaluating the environmental effects of agricultural management. Traditionally, these models have simulated soil water percolation processes using a tipping‐bucket approach, with the rate of flow limited by the saturated hydraulic conductivity. This simple approach often leads to inaccuracy in simulating elevated soil water conditions where soil water content (SWC) levels may remain above field capacity under prolonged wet weather periods or limited drainage. To overcome this deficiency, a new submodel, the variable saturation hydraulic conductivity (VSHC) method, was developed for simulating soil water percolation processes using a nonlinear equation to estimate the effective hydraulic conductivity as a function of the SWC and soil properties. The VSHC method was evaluated at three sites in the United States and two sites in Europe. In addition, a numerical solution of the Richards equation was used as a benchmark for SWC comparison. Results show that the VSHC method substantially improves the accuracy of the SWC simulation in long‐term simulations, particularly during wet periods. At the watershed scale, results on the Riesel Y2 watershed indicate that the VSHC method enhances model performance in the high‐flow regime of channel peak flows because of the improved estimation of SWC, which implies that the improved SWC simulation at the field scale is beneficial to hydrologic modeling at the watershed scale.

Doro, Luca↗

DOE OSTI2019

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Workflow of Full System SIERRA Models Supporting High Consequence Applications

Credibility of end-to-end CompSim (Computational Simulation) models and their agile execution requires an expressive framework to describe, communicate and execute complex computational tool chains representing the model. All stakeholders from system engineering and customers through model developers and V&V partners need views and functionalities of the workflow representing the model in a manner that is natural to their discipline. In the milestone and in this report we define workflow as a network of computation simulation activities executed autonomously on a distributed set of computational platforms. The FY19 ASC L2 Milestone (6802) for the Integrated Workflow (IWF) project was designed to integrate and improve existing capabilities or develop new functionalities to provide a wide range of stakeholders a coherent and intuitive platform capable of defining and executing CompSim modeling from analysis workflow definition to complex ensemble calculations. The main goal of the milestone was to advance the integrated workflow capabilities to support the weapon system analysts with a production deployment in FY20. Ensemble calculations supporting program decisions include sensitivity analysis, optimization and uncertainty quantification. The goal of the L2 milestone aligned with the ultimate goal of the IWF project is to foster cultural and technical shift toward and integrated CompSim capability based on automated workflows. Specific deliverables were defined in five broad categories: 1) Infrastructure, including development of distributed-computing workflow capability, 2) integration of Dakota (Sandia's sensitivity, optimization and UQ engine) with SAW (Sandia Analysis Workbench), 3) ARG (Automatic Report Generator introspecting analysis artifacts and generating human-readable extensible and archivable reports), 4) Libraries and Repositories aiding capability reuse, and 5) Exemplars to support training, capturing best practices and stress testing of the platform. A set of exemplars was defined to represent typical weapon system qualification CompSim projects. Analyzing the required capabilities and using the findings to plan implementation of required capabilities ensured optimal allocation of development resources focused on production deployment after the L2 is completed. It was recognized early that the end-to-end modeling applications pose a considerable number of diverse risks, and a formal risk tracking process was implemented. The project leveraged products, capabilities and development tasks of IWF partners. SAW, Dakota, Cubit, Sierra, Slycat, and NGA (NexGen Analytics, a small business) contributed to the integrated platform developed during this milestone effort. New products delivered include: a) NGW (Next Generation Workflow) for robust workflow definition and execution, b) Dakota wizards, editor and results visualization, and c) the automatic report generator ARG. User engagement was initiated early in the development process eliciting concrete requirements and actionable feedback to assure that the integrated CompSim capability will have high user acceptance and impact. The current integrated capabilities have been demonstrated and are continually being tested by a set of exemplars ranging from training scenarios to computationally demanding uncertainty analyses. The integrated workflow platform has been deployed on both SRN (Sandia Restricted Network) and SCN (Sandia Classified Network). Computational platforms where the system has been demonstrated span from Windows (Creo the CAD platform chosen by Sandia) to Trinity HPC (Sierra and CTH solvers). Follow up work will focus on deployment at SNL and other sites in the nuclear enterprise (LLNL, KCNSC), training and consulting support to democratize the analysis agility, process health and knowledge management benefits the NGW platform provides.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗