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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,621 records · Page 90
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1998

On the Long-Term Trend of Atlantic Basin Intense Hurricanes

During the interval of 1944-1997, 120 intense hurricanes were observed in the Atlantic basin, having an annual frequency of 0-7 events per year, being more active prior to the mid 1960s than thereafter, and being preferentially lower during El Nino years as compared to non-El Nino years. Because decadal averages of the frequency of intense hurricanes closely resemble those of average temperature anomalies for northern hemispheric and global standards and of the average temperature at the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland), a proxy for climatic change, it is inferred that the long-term trends of the annual frequency of intense hurricanes and temperature are statistically related. Indeed, on the basis of the 4- and 10-yr moving averages, the two are found to be strongly associated (when temperature leads by 6 yr). Because the long-term leading trends of temperature are now upward, beginning about the mid 1980s, it is inferred that the long-term trends of the annual frequency of intense hurricanes should now also be upward, beginning near 1990, suggesting that a return to the more active state probably has already occurred.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Rock Statistics at the Mars Pathfinder Landing Site, Roughness and Roving on Mars

Several rock counts have been carried out at the Mars Pathfinder landing site producing consistent statistics of rock coverage and size-frequency distributions. These rock statistics provide a primary element of "ground truth" for anchoring remote sensing information used to pick the Pathfinder, and future, landing sites. The observed rock population statistics should also be consistent with the emplacement and alteration processes postulated to govern the landing site landscape. The rock population databases can however be used in ways that go beyond the calculation of cumulative number and cumulative area distributions versus rock diameter and height. Since the spatial parameters measured to characterize each rock are determined with stereo image pairs, the rock database serves as a subset of the full landing site digital terrain model (DTM). Insofar as a rock count can be carried out in a speedier, albeit coarser, manner than the full DTM analysis, rock counting offers several operational and scientific products in the near term. Quantitative rock mapping adds further information to the geomorphic study of the landing site, and can also be used for rover traverse planning. Statistical analysis of the surface roughness using the rock count proxy DTM is sufficiently accurate when compared to the full DTM to compare with radar remote sensing roughness measures, and with rover traverse profiles.

Haldemann, A. F. C.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Satellite Remote Sensing of Aerosol Forcing

The role of aerosol forcing remains one of the largest uncertainties in estimating man's impact on the global climate system. One school of thought suggests that remote sensing by satellite sensors will provide the data necessary to narrow these uncertainties. While satellite measurements of direct aerosol forcing appear to be straightforward, satellite measurements of aerosol indirect forcing will be more complicated. Pioneering studies identified indirect aerosol forcing using AVHRR data in the biomass burning regions of Brazil. We have expanded this analysis with AVHRR to include an additional year of data and assimilated water vapor fields. The results show similar latitudinal dependence as reported by Kaufman and Fraser, but by using water vapor observations we conclude that latitude is not a proxy for water vapor and the strength of the indirect effect is not correlated to water vapor amounts. In addition to the AVHRR study we have identified indirect aerosol forcing in Brazil at much smaller spatial scales using the MODIS Airborne Simulator. The strength of the indirect effect appears to be related to cloud type and cloud dynamics. There is a suggestion that some of the cloud dynamics may be influenced by smoke destabilization of the atmospheric column. Finally, this study attempts to quantify remote sensing limitations due to the accuracy limits of the retrieval algorithms. We use a combination of numerical aerosol transport models, ground-based AERONET data and ISCCP cloud climatology to determine how much of the forcing occurs in regions too clean to determine from satellite retrievals.

Remer, Lorraine↗
NASA NTRS1999

BSD Portals for LINUX 2.0

Portals, an experimental feature of 4.4BSD, extend the file system name space by exporting certain open () requests to a user-space daemon. A portal daemon is mounted into the file name space as if it were a standard file system. When the kernel resolves a pathname and encounters a portal mount point, the remainder of the path is passed to the portal daemon. Depending on the portal "pathname" and the daemon's configuration, some type of open (2) is performed. The resulting file descriptor is passed back to the kernel which eventually returns it to the user, to whom it appears that a "normal" open has occurred. A proxy portalfs file system is responsible for kernel interaction with the daemon. The overall effect is that the portal daemon performs an open (2) on behalf of the kernel, possibly hiding substantial complexity from the calling process. One particularly useful application is implementing a connection service that allows simple scripts to open network sockets. This paper describes the implementation of portals for LINUX 2.0.

McNab, A. David↗
NASA NTRS2000

Soil Moisture and Mesoscale Convective Complex Development During the 1993 US Midwest Flood: Results from the MM5-PLACE Atmosphere/Land-Surface Model

The 1993 US Midwest Flood produced record levels of flooding, in the Mississippi River Basin. This flooding resulted from repeated frontal passages and mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) during the months of June and July. A better understanding of processes that influenced MCC development during the 1993 Flood may lead to improved forecasts of heavy precipitation and flooding. Here, we consider the impact of soil moisture on MCC development during a two-day period (June 23-24) of the 1993 US Midwest Flood. The purpose of this study is to assess the importance of soil moisture distribution on the timing, intensity, and location of heavy precipitation. In this study, the MM5-PLACE Atmosphere/Land-Surface Model is utilized. The atmospheric component consists of the Penn State/NCAR MM5 mesoscale model, and the land-surface component consists of the Goddard Parameterization for Land Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE). Initial soil moisture is provided from two sources: 1) NCEP reanalysis, and 2) Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) using NOAA rain gauge measurements as a proxy for soil moisture. NCEP reanalysis provides coarse resolution initial soil moisture (2.5 degree), while API provides high resolution initial soil moisture (10-200 km depending on NOAA rain gauge spacing). Initial results indicate that the distribution of soil moisture has a significant impact on the timing and location of heavy precipitation during this two-day flood event. Precipitation in simulations with high resolution initial soil moisture agrees more closely with observed precipitation. These results suggest that high resolution soil moisture observations are necessary to accurately predict severe storm development, heavy precipitation, and subsequent flooding.

Baker, R. David↗
NASA NTRS2000

Satellite Observation of El Nino Effects on Amazon Forest Phenology and Productivity

Climate variability may affect the functioning of Amazon moist tropical forests, and recent modeling analyses suggest that the carbon dynamics of the region vary interannually in response to precipitation and temperature anomalies. However, due to persistent orbital and atmospheric artifacts in the satellite record, remote sensing observations have not provided quantitative evidence that climate variation affects Amazon forest phenology or productivity, We developed a method to minimize and quantify non-biological artifacts in NOAA AVHRR satellite data, providing a record of estimated forest phenological variation from 1982-1993. The seasonal Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) amplitude (a proxy for phenology) increased throughout much of the basin during El Nino periods when rainfall was anomalously low. Wetter La Nina episodes brought consistently smaller NDVI amplitudes. Using radiative transfer and terrestrial biogeochemical models driven by these satellite data, we estimate that canopy-energy absorption and net primary production of Amazon forests varied interannually by as much as 21% and 18%, respectively. These results provide large-scale observational evidence for interannual sensitivity to El Nino of plant phenology and carbon flux in Amazon forests.

Asner, Gregory P.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Climate and Ozone Response to Increased Stratospheric Water Vapor

Stratospheric water vapor abundance affects ozone, surface climate, and stratospheric temperatures. From 30-50 km altitude, temperatures show global decreases of 3-6 K over recent decades. These may be a proxy for water vapor increases, as the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model reproduces these trends only when stratospheric water vapor is allowed to increase. Observations suggest that stratospheric water vapor is indeed increasing, however, measurements are extremely limited in either spatial coverage or duration. The model results suggest that the observed changes may be part of a global, long-term trend. Furthermore, the required water vapor change is too large to be accounted for by increased production within the stratosphere, suggesting that ongoing climate change may be altering tropospheric input. The calculated stratospheric water vapor increase contributes an additional approximately equals 24% (approximately equals 0.2 W/m(exp 2)) to the global warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases over the past two decades. Observed ozone depletion is also better reproduced when destruction due to increased water vapor is included. If the trend continues, it could increase future global warming and impede stratospheric ozone recovery.

Shindell, Drew T.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Optical Measurements and Modeling to Estimate Concentrations and Fluxes of Organic Matter in the Southern Ocean

This project was a collaboration between two Principal Investigators, Dr. Dariusz Stramski and Dr. Greg Mitchell of Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego. Our overall goal was to conduct optical measurements and modeling to estimate concentrations of organic matter in the Southern Ocean in support of the U.S. JGOFS Process Study in this region. Key variables and processes of high relevance to accomplish the JGOFS goals include time and space resolution of phytoplankton pigments, particulate organic carbon, and the formation and export of organic carbon. Our project focused on establishing the fundamental relationships for parameterization of these variables and processes in terms of the optical properties of seawater, and developing understanding of why the Southern Ocean differs from other low-latitude systems, or has differentiation within. Our approach builds upon historical observations that optical properties provide a useful proxy for key reservoirs of organic matter such as chlorophyll alpha (Chl) and particulate organic carbon (POC) concentrations, which are of relevance to the JGOFS objectives. We carried out detailed studies of in situ and water sample optical properties including spectral reflectance, absorption, beam attenuation, scattering, and backscattering coefficients. We evaluated the ability to estimate Chl from the spectral reflectance (ocean color) in the Southern Ocean. We examined relationships between the ocean optical properties and particulate organic carbon. We developed, for the first time, an algorithm for estimating particulate organic carbon concentration in the surface ocean from satellite imagery of ocean color. With this algorithm, we obtained maps of POC distribution in the Southern Ocean showing the seasonal progression of POC in the austral spring-summer season. We also developed a semianalytical reflectance model for the investigated polar waters based on our field measurements of absorption and backscattering coefficients and Chl-dependent parameterizations of these coefficients. With this model, libraries of expected reflectance spectra for various chlorophyll concentrations can be generated with high spectral resolution for specific oceanic regions. In addition, our semianalytical reflectance model provided insight into the mechanisms which drive the empirical relationships between the ocean color and chlorophyll concentration. Our optical approach to the study of pigment and carbon concentrations will be directly relevant to development of system models and long-term monitoring of the Southern Ocean.

Stramski, Dariusz↗
NASA NTRS2001

Constraints on Variability of Brightness and Surface Magnetism on Time Scales of Decades to Centuries in the Sun and Sun-Like Stars: A Source of Potential Terrestrial Climate Variability

These four points summarize our work to date. (1) Conciliation of solar and stellar photometric variability. Previous research by us and colleagues suggested that the Sun might at present be showing unusually low photometric variability compared to other sun-like stars. Those early results would question the suitability of the technique of using sun-like stars as proxies for solar irradiance change on time scales of decades to centuries. However, our results indicate the contrary: the Sun's observed short-term (seasonal) and longterm (year-to-year) brightness variations closely agree with observed brightness variations in stars of similar mass and age. (2) We have demonstrated an inverse correlation between the global temperature of the terrestrial lower troposphere, inferred from the NASA Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometers, and the total area of the Sun covered by coronal holes from January 1979 to present (up to May 2000). Variable fluxes of either solar charged particles or cosmic rays, or both, may influence the terrestrial tropospheric temperature. The geographical pattern of the correlation is consistent with our interpretation of an extra-terrestrial charged particle forcing. (3) Possible climate mechanism amplifying the impact of solar ultraviolet irradiance variations. The key points of our proposed climate hypersensitivity mechanism are: (a) The Sun is more variable in the UV (ultraviolet) than in the visible. However, the increased UV irradiance is mainly absorbed in the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere rather than at the surface. (b) Absorption in the stratosphere raises the temperature moderately around the vicinity of the tropopause, and tends to stabilize the atmosphere against vertical convective/diffusive transport, thus decreasing the flux of heat and moisture carried upward from surface. (c) The decrease in the upward convection of heat and moisture tends to raise the surface temperature because a drier upper atmosphere becomes less cloudy, which in turn allows more solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface. (4) Natural variability in an ocean-atmosphere climate model. We use a 14-region, 6-layer, global thermo-hydrodynamic ocean-atmosphere model to study natural climate variability. All the numerical experiments were performed with no change in the prescribed external boundary conditions (except for the seasonal cycle of the Sun's tilt angle). Therefore, the observed inter-annual variability is of an internal kind. The model results are helpful toward the understanding of the role of nonlinearity in climate change. We have demonstrated a range of possible climate behaviors using our newly developed ocean-atmosphere model. These include climate configurations with no interannual variability, with multi-year periodicities, with continuous chaos, or with chaotically occuring transitions between two discrete substrates. These possible modes of climate behavior are all possible for the real climate, as well as the model. We have shown that small temporary climate influences can trigger shifts both in the mean climate, and among these different types of behavior. Such shifts are not only theoretically plausible, as shown here and elsewhere; they are omnipresent in the climate record on time scales from several years to the age of the Earth. This has two apparently opposite implications for the possibility of anthropogenic global warming. First, any warming which might occur as a result of human influence would be only a fraction of the small-to-large unpredictable natural changes and changes which result from other external causes. On the other hand, small temporary influences such as human influence do have the potential of causing large permanent shifts in mean climate and interannual variability.

Baliunas, Sallie L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Advanced Automation for Ion Trap Mass Spectrometry-New Opportunities for Real-Time Autonomous Analysis

The utility of MS/MS for both target compound analysis and the structure elucidation of unknowns has been described in a number of references. A broader acceptance of this technique has not yet been realized as it requires large, complex, and costly instrumentation which has not been competitive with more conventional techniques. Recent advancements in ion trap mass spectrometry promise to change this situation. Although the ion trap's small size, sensitivity, and ability to perform multiple stages of mass spectrometry have made it eminently suitable for on-line, real-time monitoring applications, advance automation techniques are required to make these capabilities more accessible to non-experts. Towards this end we have developed custom software for the design and implementation of MS/MS experiments. This software allows the user to take full advantage of the ion trap's versatility with respect to ionization techniques, scan proxies, and ion accumulation/ejection methods. Additionally, expert system software has been developed for autonomous target compound analysis. This software has been linked to ion trap control software and a commercial data system to bring all of the steps in the analysis cycle under control of the expert system. These software development efforts and their utilization for a number of trace analysis applications will be described.

Palmer, Peter T.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Observations Regarding Small Eolian Dunes and Large Ripples on Mars

Eolian bedforms occur at the interface between a planetary surface and its atmosphere; they present a proxy record of the influence of climate, expressed in sediment transport, over that surface. High resolution images (1.5 - 12 m/pixel) from the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera provide glimpses of the most recent events shaping the martian landscape. Thousands of images exhibit small transverse dunes or large eolian ripples that have crest-to-crest spacings of 10 to 60 m, heights of a few to 10 m. Bedforms of the size and patterns seen in the Mars photographs are rarely described among Earth's eolian landforms; in terms of size and morphology, most of these fall between traditional definitions of "ripples" and "dunes". Dunes are composed chiefly of materials transported by saltation, ripples are smaller forms moved along by the impact of saltating grains (traction). The largest reported eolian ripples on Earth (granule ripples, megaripples) are typically smaller than the bedforms observed on Mars; likewise, most dunes are typically larger. The small dunes and large ripples on Mars come in a variety of relative albedos, despite an early MGS impression that they are all of high albedo. Some ripples occur on the surfaces of sand dunes; these are most likely true granule ripples. However, most of these bedforms occur in troughs, pits, craters, and on deflated plains. Despite impressions early in the MGS mission, they do not occur everywhere (e.g., they are rare on the northern plains) but they do occur at a range of elevations from the highest volcanoes to the deepest basins. Where they occur on a hard substrate among larger sand dunes, the big dunes have over-ridden the smaller bedforms, indicating that the smaller features are older and perhaps indurated or very coarse-grained. At other locales, the small bedforms have been mantled by material settled from suspension, in other cases they are being exhumed and may be lithified. Still other examples are peppered with small impact craters, implying considerable age. These bedforms present a complicated record of the geologically-recent past, one that has involved changes in climate, sediment transport capabilities, and sediment sources and sinks over time.

Edgett, Kenneth S.↗
NASA NTRS2001

On the Performance of TCP Spoofing in Satellite Networks

In this paper, we analyze the performance of Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) in a network that consists of both satellite and terrestrial components. One method, proposed by outside research, to improve the performance of data transfers over satellites is to use a performance enhancing proxy often dubbed 'spoofing.' Spoofing involves the transparent splitting of a TCP connection between the source and destination by some entity within the network path. In order to analyze the impact of spoofing, we constructed a simulation suite based around the network simulator ns-2. The simulation reflects a host with a satellite connection to the Internet and allows the option to spoof connections just prior to the satellite. The methodology used in our simulation allows us to analyze spoofing over a large range of file sizes and under various congested conditions, while prior work on this topic has primarily focused on bulk transfers with no congestion. As a result of these simulations, we find that the performance of spoofing is dependent upon a number of conditions.

Ishac, Joseph↗
NASA NTRS2001

Production, Outflow Velocity, and Radial Distribution of H2O and OH in the Coma of Comet C/1995 O1 [Hale-Bopp] from Wide Field Imaging of OH

Observations of OH are a useful proxy of the water production rate (Q(sub H2O)) and outflow velocity (V(sub out)) in comets. We use wide field images taken on 03/28/1997 and 04/08/1997 that capture the entire scale length of the OH coma of comet C/1995O1 (Hale-Bopp) to obtain Q(sub H2O) from the model-independent method of aperture summation. We also extract the radial brightness profile of OH 3080 angstroms out to cometocentric distances of up to 10(exp 6) km using an adaptive ring summation algorithm. Radial profiles are obtained as azimuthal averages and in quadrants covering different position angles relative to the comet-Sun line. These profiles are fit using both fixed and variable velocity two-component spherical expansion models to determine VOH with increasing distance from the nucleus. The OH coma of Hale-Bopp was more spatially extended than in previous comets, and this extension is best matched by a variable acceleration of H2O and OH that acted across the entire coma, but was strongest within 1-2 x 10(exp 4) km from the nucleus. This acceleration led to VOH at 10(exp 6) km that was 2-3 times greater than that obtained from a 1P/Halleytype comet at 1 AU, a result that is consistent with gas-kinetic models, extrapolation from previous observations of OH in comets with Q(sub H2O) > 10(exp 29)/s, and radio measurements of the outer coma Hale-Bopp OH velocity profile. When the coma is broken down by quadrant, we find an azimuthal asymmetry in the radial distribution that is characterized by an increase in the spatial extent of OH in the region between the orbit-trailing and anti-sunward directions. Model fits to this area and comparison with radio OH measurements suggest greater acceleration in this region, with VOH UP to 1.5 times greater at 10(exp 6) km radial distance than elsewhere in the coma.

Harris, Walter M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Use of Yohkoh SXT in Measuring the Net Current and CME Productivity of Active Regions

In our investigation of the correlation of global nonpotentiality of active regions to their CME productivity (Falconer, D.A. 2001, JGR, in press, and Falconer, Moore, & Gary, 2000, EOS 82, 20 S323), we use Yohkoh SXT images for two purposes. The first use is to help resolve the 180 degree ambiguity in the direction of the observed transverse magnetic field. Resolution of the 180 degree ambiguity is important, since the net current, one of our measures of global nonpotentiality, is derived from integrating the dot product of the transverse field around a contour (I(sub N)=(integral)BT(raised dot)dl). The ambiguity results from the observed transverse field being determined from the linear polarization, which gives the plane of the direction, but leaves a 180 degrees ambiguity. Automated methods to resolve the ambiguity ranging from the simple acute angle rule (Falconer, D.A. 2001) to the more sophisticated annealing method (Metcalf T.R. 1994). For many active regions, especially ones that are nearly potential these methods work well. But for very nonpotential active regions where the shear angle (the angle between the observed and potential transverse field) is near 90 degrees throughout large swaths along the main neutral line, both methods can resolve the ambiguity incorrectly for long segments of the neutral line. By determining from coronal images, such as those from Yohkoh/SXT, the sense of shear along the main neutral line in the active region, these cases can be identified and corrected by a modification of the acute angle rule described here. The second use of Yohkoh/SXT in this study is to check for the cusped coronal arcades of long-duration eruptive flares. This signature is an excellent proxy for CMEs, and was used by Canfield, Hudson, and McKenzie (1999 GRL V26, 6, 627-630). This work is funded by NSF through the Space Weather Program and by NASA through the Solar Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program.

Falconer, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Solar Forcing of Regional Climate Change During the Maunder Minimum

We examine the climate response to solar irradiance changes between the late 17th century Maunder Minimum and the late 18th century. Global average temperature changes are small (about 0.3 to 0.4 C) in both a climate model and empirical reconstructions. However, regional temperature changes are quite large. In the model, these occur primarily through a forced shift toward the low index state of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation. This leads to colder temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere continents, especially in winter (1 to 2 C), in agreement with historical records and proxy data for surface temperatures.

Shindell, Drew T.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Isotopic Signature of the Ancient Biosphere

The age distribution of 261 field localities, sampled for their well-preserved Archean and Proterozoic sedimentary rocks, revealed a 500-700 Ma episodicity. Assuming that the numbers of sites are a proxy for mass of sediments, the record of well-preserved sediments is more abundant in the intervals 3.5-3.3, 2.8-2.5, 2.1-1.8, 1.5-1.3, and 1.0-0.54 Ga than in the intervening intervals. It is proposed that the crustal inventory of photosynthetic organic carbon was modulated by the volume of sedimentation in sites favorable for the burial and long-term preservation of organic carbon. Tectonic processes controlled this sediment volume. Episodic increases in the organic inventory led to stepwise increases in oxidized reservoirs (e.g., O2, SO4(2-), Fe(3+). The interval 2.9-2.5 Ga recorded a large rise in seawater Sr-87/Sr-86, the oldest-known extensive banded iron formations, and the first evidence (C-13-depleted kerogens) of O2 use by methylotrophic bacteria. The interval 2.2-1.8 Ga has both carbon isotopic evidence for a stepwise increase in the organic reservoir and also paleosol evidence for an O2 increase. The interval 1.1-0.6 Ga shows isotopic evidence for another organic carbon increase. The interval 1.5-1.3 Ga revealed no such increases as yet, perhaps because incomplete rifting of the mid-Proterozoic supercontinent was associated with extensive sedimentation in oxidized continental basins, producing redbeds, coarse clastics, etc. Such sedimentation did not promote the burial of reduced carbon.

DesMarais, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Transients in Pacific/North American Plate Boundary Deformation: Synthesis and Modeling of GPS and Borehole Strain Observations

This is the Final Technical Report on research conducted between 1 June 1997 and 14 September 2001 entitled "Transients in Pacific/North American plate boundary deformation: Synthesis and modeling of GPS and borehole strain observations." As the project title implies, our effort involved a geodetic study of strain transients, i.e., temporal variations in deformation rates, that occur within plate boundary zones and their relationship to earthquakes and plate motions. Important transients occur during and following large earthquakes, and there are also strain transients not apparently associated with earthquakes. A particularly intriguing class of transients, for which there is a modest but growing list of examples, are preseismic anomalies. Such earthquake precursors, if further documented and understood, would have obvious importance for earthquake hazard mitigation. Because the timescales for these diverse transients range over at least 6 orders of magnitude (minutes to years), no single geodetic technique is optimum. We therefore undertook a systematic synthesis of Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) and borehole strainmeter data in three areas in California where there are adequate numbers of both types of instruments (or their equivalent): the San Francisco Bay region (within the Bay Area Regional Deformation network), southern California (within the Southern California Integrated GPS Network), and Parkfield (where a two-color laser system provides a proxy for continuous GPS measurements). An integral component of our study was the elucidation of the physical mechanisms by which such transients occur and propagate. We therefore initiated the development of multiple forward models, using two independent approaches. In the first, we explored the response to specified earthquake slip in viscoelastic models that incorporated failure criteria and the geometry of major faults in California. In the second approach, we examined the dynamical response of a complex rheological medium to the application of a far-field stress imposed by plate motions. The forward models were used both to gain insight into the range of strain transients to be expected under different assumed mechanical conditions and to develop representations for strain fields that allow GPS, borehole, and other strain data to be combined in a self-consistent, yet well-determined, manner. The models also provided a basis for hypothesis testing, by which data from a strain transient well characterized by GPS and borehole observations were utilized to distinguish among competing candidates for the causative physical mechanism and the governing physical characteristics. During the three years of this project, continued to a fourth year through a no-cost extension of the grant, we published 14 papers and presented or co-authored 37 papers at national scientific meetings.

Solomon, Sean C.↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Spatial Coherence of Interannual Temperature Variations in the Antarctic Peninsula

Over 50 years of observations from climate stations on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula show that this is a region of extreme interannual variability in near-surface temperatures. The region has also experienced more rapid warming than any other part of the Southern Hemisphere. In this paper we use a new dataset of satellite-derived surface temperatures to define the extent of the region of extreme variability more clearly than was possible using the sparse station data. The region in which satellite surface temperatures correlate strongly with west Peninsula station temperatures is found to be quite small and is largely confined to the seas just west of the Peninsula, with a northward and eastward extension into the Scotia Sea and a southward extension onto the western slopes of Palmer Land. Correlation of Peninsula surface temperatures with surface temperatures over the rest of continental Antarctica is poor confirming that the west Peninsula is in a different climate regime. The analysis has been used to identify sites where ice core proxy records might be representative of variations on the west coast of the Peninsula. Of the five existing core sites examined, only one is likely to provide a representative record for the west coast.

King, John C.↗