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DOE OSTI2025

Molecular Modeling and Molecular Dynamics Simulation of a Packed and Intact Bacterial Microcompartment

Bacterial microcompartments (BMCs) are protein-bound organelles found in some bacteria which encapsulate enzymes for enhanced catalytic activity. These compartments spatially sequester enzymes within semipermeable shell proteins and are packed full of enzyme cargoes and metabolites as they fulfill their function. Coupling together recent SAXS and proteomics work, it is possible to develop molecular models for these microcompartments and interrogate enzyme and metabolite dynamics within. Our primary goal of this study is to quantify the permeability of metabolite glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate (G3P) and dihydroxyacetone phosphate (DHAP) across the BMC shell through classical molecular dynamics simulation. The Haliangium ochraceum model of BMC shell (PDB: 6MZX) was used to model an intact BMC of approximately 10 million atoms. Working at this scale presented its own challenges in managing large data sets, with multiple challenges and hardware advances discussed that facilitated this work. Over approximately 750 ns of aggregate simulation, we see multiple permeation events for these metabolites that were added at high concentration through the pores present within BMC shell tiles. When compared to independent permeability estimates for the same metabolites determined through replica exchange umbrella sampling simulations, the permeabilities varied by approximately 3 orders of magnitude. Regardless, the permeability coefficients for both G3P and DHAP are highly similar and very high, such that only very small concentration gradients can be maintained across the BMC shell between the cytosol and BMC interior. The large simulation systems also facilitated comparisons for molecular diffusivity in the crowded environment within the BMC shell. By our estimates, the viscosity within a packed BMC shell is at least 10-fold higher than it would be in neat solution and is the real driver for varying permeability estimates we obtained through simulation. These findings will be used as design inputs for future bioengineering efforts to make products from BMCs, highlighting how permeable BMC shells can be.

Diffusion↗

NASA NTRS1992

A model for the characterization of the spatial properties in vestibular neurons

Quantitative study of the static and dynamic response properties of some otolith-sensitive neurons has been difficult in the past partly because their responses to different linear acceleration vectors exhibited no "null" plane and a dependence of phase on stimulus orientation. The theoretical formulation of the response ellipse provides a quantitative way to estimate the spatio-temporal properties of such neurons. Its semi-major axis gives the direction of the polarization vector (i.e., direction of maximal sensitivity) and it estimates the neuronal response for stimulation along that direction. In addition, the semi-minor axis of the ellipse provides an estimate of the neuron's maximal sensitivity in the "null" plane. In this paper, extracellular recordings from otolith-sensitive vestibular nuclei neurons in decerebrate rats were used to demonstrate the practical application of the method. The experimentally observed gain and phase dependence on the orientation angle of the acceleration vector in a head-horizontal plane was described and satisfactorily fit by the response ellipse model. In addition, the model satisfactorily fits neuronal responses in three-dimensions and unequivocally demonstrates that the response ellipse formulation is the general approach to describe quantitatively the spatial properties of vestibular neurons.

Non-NASA Center↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Impact of Alfvénic Shear Flow on Magnetic Reconnection and Turbulence

Magnetic reconnection is a fundamental and omnipresent energy conversion process in plasma physics. Novel observations of fields and particles from Parker Solar Probe (PSP) have shown the absence of reconnection in a large number of current sheets in the near-Sun solar wind. Using near-Sun observations from PSP encounters 4–11 (2020 January–2022 March), we investigate whether reconnection onset might be suppressed by velocity shear. We compare estimates of the tearing mode growth rate in the presence of shear flow for time periods identified as containing reconnecting current sheets versus nonreconnecting times, finding systematically larger growth rates for reconnection periods. Upon examination of the parameters associated with reconnection onset, we find that 85% of the reconnection events are embedded in slow, non-Alfvénic wind streams. We compare with fast, slow non-Alfvénic, and slow Alfvénic streams, finding that the growth rate is suppressed in highly Alfvénic fast and slow wind, and reconnection is not seen in these wind types, as would be expected from our theoretical expressions. These wind streams have strong Alfvénic flow shear, consistent with the idea of reconnection suppression by such flows. This could help explain the frequent absence of reconnection events in the highly Alfvénic, near-Sun solar wind observed by PSP. Finally, we find a steepening of both the trace and magnitude magnetic field spectra within reconnection periods in comparison to ambient wind. We tie this to the dynamics of relatively balanced turbulence within these reconnection periods and the potential generation of compressible fluctuations.

slow solar wind↗

NASA NTRS1999

Entropy Splitting and Numerical Dissipation

A rigorous stability estimate for arbitrary order of accuracy of spatial central difference schemes for initial-boundary value problems of nonlinear symmetrizable systems of hyperbolic conservation laws was established recently by Olsson and Oliger (1994) and Olsson (1995) and was applied to the two-dimensional compressible Euler equations for a perfect gas by Gerritsen and Olsson (1996) and Gerritsen (1996). The basic building block in developing the stability estimate is a generalized energy approach based on a special splitting of the flux derivative via a convex entropy function and certain homogeneous properties. Due to some of the unique properties of the compressible Euler equations for a perfect gas, the splitting resulted in the sum of a conservative portion and a non-conservative portion of the flux derivative. hereafter referred to as the "Entropy Splitting." There are several potential desirable attributes and side benefits of the entropy splitting for the compressible Euler equations that were not fully explored in Gerritsen and Olsson. The paper has several objectives. The first is to investigate the choice of the arbitrary parameter that determines the amount of splitting and its dependence on the type of physics of current interest to computational fluid dynamics. The second is to investigate in what manner the splitting affects the nonlinear stability of the central schemes for long time integrations of unsteady flows such as in nonlinear aeroacoustics and turbulence dynamics. If numerical dissipation indeed is needed to stabilize the central scheme, can the splitting help minimize the numerical dissipation compared to its un-split cousin? Extensive numerical study on the vortex preservation capability of the splitting in conjunction with central schemes for long time integrations will be presented. The third is to study the effect of the non-conservative proportion of splitting in obtaining the correct shock location for high speed complex shock-turbulence interactions. The fourth is to determine if this method can be extended to other physical equations of state and other evolutionary equation sets. If numerical dissipation is needed, the Yee, Sandham, and Djomehri (1999) numerical dissipation is employed. The Yee et al. schemes fit in the Olsson and Oliger framework.

Yee, H. C.↗

NASA NTRS2010

NASA's Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) Mission

The Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP) Mission is one of the first Earth observation satellites being formulated by NASA in response to the 2007 National Research Council s Decadal Survey. SMAP will make global measurements of soil moisture at the Earth's land surface and its freeze-thaw state. These measurements will allow significantly improved estimates of water, energy and carbon transfers between the land and atmosphere. Soil moisture measurements are also of great importance in assessing flooding and monitoring drought. Knowledge gained from SMAP observations can help mitigate these natural hazards, resulting in potentially great economic and social benefits. SMAP observations of soil moisture and freeze/thaw timing over the boreal latitudes will also reduce a major uncertainty in quantifying the global carbon balance and help to resolve an apparent missing carbon sink over land. The SMAP mission concept will utilize an L-band radar and radiometer sharing a rotating 6-meter mesh reflector antenna flying in a 680 km polar orbit with an 8-day exact ground track repeat aboard a 3-axis stabilized spacecraft to provide high-resolution and high-accuracy global maps of soil moisture and freeze/thaw state every two to three days. In addition, the SMAP project will use these surface observations with advanced modeling and data assimilation to provide estimates of deeper root-zone soil moisture and net ecosystem exchange of carbon. SMAP recently completed its Phase A Mission Concept Study Phase for NASA and transitioned into Phase B (Formulation and Detailed Design). A number of significant accomplishments occurred during this initial phase of mission development. The SMAP project held several open meetings to solicit community feedback on possible science algorithms, prepared preliminary draft Algorithm Theoretical Basis Documents (ATBDs) for each mission science product, and established a prototype algorithm testbed to enable testing and evaluation of the performance of candidate algorithms. SMAP conducted an Applications Workshop in September 2009 to coordinate with potential application users interested in the mission data. A draft Applications Plan describing the Project s planned outreach to potential applications users has been prepared and will be updated during Phase B. SMAP made a significant evaluation of the potential terrestrial radio frequency interference (RFI) source environment and established radiometer and radar flight hardware and ground processing mitigation approaches. SMAP finalized its science orbit and orbit injection approach to optimize launch mass and prepared launch and commissioning scenarios and timeline. A science data communications approach was developed to maximize available science data volume to improve science margins while maintaining moderately short data product latencies to support many potential applications using existing ground assets and with minimum impact to the flight system. SMAP developed rigid multi-body and flexible body dynamics and control models and system designs for the 6-meter rotating instrument reflector-boom assembly (RBA) and flight system to confirm pointing and control performance, and devised strategies to efficiently implement on-orbit balancing if needed. Industry partners were selected for the spin mechanism assembly (SMA) and RBA. Preliminary designs for the radar and radiometer were initiated, including constructing breadboards of key assemblies.

Kellogg, Kent↗

DOE OSTI2026

Influence of plateau, slope, and valley on soil hydrology during the dry season in a Central Amazon old‐growth forest

Soil moisture regulates plant water supply and drought sensitivity in tropical forests, yet its vertical and topographic variation remains poorly characterized. We combined high-frequency time-domain reflectometry measurements from 5 to 100 cm across plateau, slope, and valley landforms at the Zona Florestal 2 research site north of Manaus, Central Amazonia, to quantify how soil moisture memory, timing of responses to rainfall, dry-down rates (τ), and soil–water depletion vary across these contrasting landforms. Landform-specific soil moisture calibration curves ensured accurate volumetric water content estimates in these highly weathered soils. During the 2023 dry-to-wet transition (August–November), soil moisture memory showed strong topographic contrasts, with valley profiles increasing from ∼47 h at 5 cm to ∼154 h at 100 cm, while plateaus exhibited higher near-surface persistence (∼124 h at 5 cm) but weaker memory at depth. Dry-down behavior reinforced these differences as valley soils exhibited τ values exceeding ∼200 h, more than double the characteristic τ of plateau soils (∼90 h). Rainfall–soil moisture correlations indicated immediate responses at shallow depths in valleys and progressively longer lags with depth on plateaus and slopes. These hydrologic patterns were mirrored in depletion profiles, which declined sharply below 30 cm on plateaus but remained high and sustained throughout the upper meter in slopes and valleys. Together, these findings provide the first depth-resolved field measurements of soil moisture memory, rainfall coupling, dry-down constants, and depletion dynamics across major upland landforms in Central Amazonia and offer clear observational benchmarks for improving land-surface and ecosystem model representations of soil–water processes.

Hillslope↗

DOE OSTI2026

Inverse Mapping of the Collision Kernel and Wall Flux Scaling in a Tall Convection‐Cloud Chamber Using Local Sensors and Knowledge‐Informed Deep Learning

Droplet collision–coalescence is a crucial process in cloud physics, but accurately representing this process under different dynamical conditions remains challenging. A proposed future convective‐cloud chamber aims to investigate this key process, but the method for observing it remains unclear, even though it is theoretically established that collision‐coalescence will occur. This study serves as a proof‐of‐concept demonstration of how knowledge‐informed deep learning, combined with measurement data from local sensors in the chamber, can be used to estimate the collision kernels, which determine how the droplet size distribution evolves during collision‐coalescence. In addition to estimating the collision kernel, we also address wall fluxes, another uncertain but important process that acts as a source of heat and moisture in the chamber. Ensemble runs of large‐eddy simulations are conducted by scaling the wall fluxes and the collision kernel, while the measured flow and cloud properties are used as inputs for a neural network. Results indicate that this approach successfully maps the scaling of wall fluxes and the collision kernel with biases of approximately 1% or less relative to the range of the target data. This proof‐of‐concept lays the groundwork for future applications; when the real measurements are available, real sensor data combined with the trained model presented in this work will enable estimation of the actual wall fluxes and collision kernel.

cloud chamber↗

DOE OSTI2026

SENTRA: A Modular Computational Graph Framework for Critical Mineral and Materials Supply Chains: Part I: Network Construction Latent-Quantity Estimation, and Temporal Graph Forecasting

Global supply chains for critical minerals and materials are complex, evolving networks of countries, products, production stages, and trade relationships. Existing analytical approaches are limited by fragmented data and static network representations that do not capture the dynamic production dependencies linking raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods across multiple countries. Trade and production statistics provide only a partial view of domestic production, inventories, and material flows, making it difficult to identify indirect sourcing pathways, hidden dependencies, and embedded foreign exposures. This paper introduces the Supply Chain Exposure Network Tracking and Risk Assessment (SENTRA) framework, a modular graph-based computational framework for constructing, analyzing, and forecasting dynamic supply chain networks. As the first paper in a three-part methodological series, it establishes the computational foundation of SENTRA by constructing a temporal attributed multi-relational graph whose nodes represent product–country pairs and whose edges encode observed trade and within-country value-chain relationships. Statistical estimation and constrained optimization recover latent production, final demand, and product input dependency coefficients while enforcing economic accounting constraints. Graph-derived exposure measures quantify direct, transshipment, value-chain, and multi-hop supply chain dependencies independently of the forecasting model. A temporal graph forecasting architecture based on a relational graph neural network then forecasts the evolution of the graph under mass-balance constraints with distribution-free conformal uncertainty quantification. Validation on the global aluminum supply chain shows that the learned graph representations recover economically meaningful supply chain structure, accurately forecast out-of-sample trade relationships, and produce well-calibrated prediction intervals. Subsequent papers apply this computational foundation to exposure assessment, disruption analysis, and scenario-based policy analysis, and extend the framework to multimaterial supply chain modeling and decision support.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

3-D Geological Modeling for Numerical Flow Simulation Studies of Gas Hydrate Reservoirs at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 Pad in the Prudhoe Bay Unit on the Alaska North Slope

Accurate reservoir evaluation requires reliable three-dimensional (3-D) geological models. Here, this study conducted 3-D geological modeling for numerical flow simulation of the B1 sand gas hydrate reservoir at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 pad, Prudhoe Bay Unit, Alaska North Slope. The model integrates well logs, core, and seismic data to address spatial heterogeneity in geological structures and reservoir properties. Two modeling types were performed: structural framework modeling and petrophysical property modeling. For structural framework modeling, seismic data and well log markers were used to reproduce subsurface structures characterized by a normal fault system. A volume-based modeling algorithm and stair-stepping grid were applied. The resulting 3-D model comprised 2,640,000 grid cells across 264 layers, including seven fault grids. For petrophysical property modeling, total porosity was initially modeled using sequential Gaussian simulation with collocated cokriging. To reproduce the upward coarsening of the B1 sand, upscaled log-derived total porosity and a three-dimensional (3-D) trend depicting total porosity variation were used as primary and secondary data, respectively. Gas hydrate saturation distribution was modeled similarly, with secondary data from estimated porosity distribution and seismic-derived acoustic impedance map enhancing accuracy. Results indicate higher gas hydrate saturation in the upper part of the B1 sand and areas with higher acoustic impedance. Intrinsic permeability was modeled from the total porosity and clay-bound water volume, and effective permeability was derived from the gas hydrate saturation and intrinsic permeability distributions based on the “Tokyo model”. Effective permeability distributions were influenced by the total porosity, gas hydrate saturation, and intrinsic permeability. Within the same layer, higher gas hydrate saturation leads to decreased effective permeability. In total, 100 sets of multiple scenarios were prepared, providing input data for dynamic flow simulations to evaluate the effects of lateral heterogeneity in reservoir properties and the hydraulic characteristics of faults on production behavior for preassessment before the long-term production test.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Asymptotic consistency of the WSINDy algorithm in the limit of continuum data

In this work we study the asymptotic consistency of the weak-form sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics algorithm (WSINDy) in the identification of differential equations from noisy samples of solutions. We prove that the WSINDy estimator is unconditionally asymptotically consistent for a wide class of models that includes the Navier–Stokes, Kuramoto–Sivashinsky and Sine–Gordon equations. We thus provide a mathematically rigorous explanation for the observed robustness to noise of weak-form equation learning. Conversely, we also show that, in general, the WSINDy estimator is only conditionally asymptotically consistent, yielding discovery of spurious terms with probability one if the noise level exceeds a critical threshold σ c . We provide explicit bounds on σ c in the case of Gaussian white noise and we explicitly characterize the spurious terms that arise in the case of trigonometric and/or polynomial libraries. Furthermore, we show that, if the data is suitably denoised (a simple moving average filter is sufficient), then asymptotic consistency is recovered for models with locally-Lipschitz, polynomial-growth nonlinearities. Our results reveal important aspects of weak-form equation learning, which may be used to improve future algorithms. We demonstrate our findings numerically using the Lorenz system, the cubic oscillator, a viscous Burgers-growth model and a Kuramoto–Sivashinsky-type high-order PDE.

asymptotic consistency↗

DOE OSTI2019

Phonon Polaritonics in Two-Dimensional Materials

Extreme confinement of electromagnetic energy by phonon polaritons holds the promise of strong and new forms of control over the dynamics of matter. To bring such control to the atomic-scale limit, it is important to consider phonon polaritons in two-dimensional (2D) systems. Recent studies have pointed out that in 2D, splitting between longitudinal and transverse optical (LO and TO) phonons is absent at the Γ point, even for polar materials. Does this lack of LO–TO splitting imply the absence of a phonon polariton in polar monolayers? To answer this, we connect the microscopic phonon properties with the macroscopic electromagnetic response. Specifically, we derive a first-principles expression for the conductivity of a polar monolayer specified by the wave-vector-dependent LO and TO phonon dispersions. In the long-wavelength (local) limit, we find a universal form for the conductivity in terms of the LO phonon frequency at the Γ point, its lifetime, and the group velocity of the LO phonon. Our analysis reveals that the phonon polariton of 2D is simply the LO phonon of the 2D system. For the specific example of hexagonal boron nitride (hBN), we estimate the confinement and propagation losses of the LO phonons, finding that high confinement and reasonable propagation quality factors coincide in regions that may be difficult to detect with current near-field optical microscopy techniques. Finally, we study the interaction of external emitters with 2D hBN nanostructures, finding an extreme enhancement of spontaneous emission due to coupling with localized 2D phonon polaritons and the possibility of multimode strong and ultrastrong coupling between an external emitter and hBN phonons. This may lead to the design of new hybrid states of electrons and phonons based on strong coupling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of global terrestrial evapotranspiration using state-of-the-art approaches in remote sensing, machine learning and land surface modeling

Abstract. Evapotranspiration (ET) is critical in linking global water, carbon and energy cycles. However, direct measurement of global terrestrial ET is not feasible. Here, we first reviewed the basic theory and state-of-the-art approaches for estimating global terrestrial ET, including remote-sensing-based physical models, machine-learning algorithms and land surface models (LSMs). We then utilized 4 remote-sensing-based physical models, 2 machine-learning algorithms and 14 LSMs to analyze the spatial and temporal variations in global terrestrial ET. The results showed that the ensemble means of annual global terrestrial ET estimated by these three categories of approaches agreed well, with values ranging from 589.6 mm yr-1 (6.56×104 km3 yr-1) to 617.1 mm yr-1 (6.87×10 4 km3 yr -1 ). For the period from 1982 to 2011, both the ensembles of remote-sensing-based physical models and machine-learning algorithms suggested increasing trends in global terrestrial ET (0.62 mm yr -2 with a significance level of p<0.05 and 0.38 mm yr -2 with a significance level of p<0.05, respectively). In contrast, the ensemble mean of the LSMs showed no statistically significant change (0.23 mm yr -2 , p>0.05), although many of the individual LSMs reproduced an increasing trend. Nevertheless, all 20 models used in this study showed that anthropogenic Earth greening had a positive role in increasing terrestrial ET. The concurrent small interannual variability, i.e., relative stability, found in all estimates of global terrestrial ET, suggests that a potential planetary boundary exists in regulating global terrestrial ET, with the value of this boundary being around 600 mm yr -1 . Uncertainties among approaches were identified in specific regions, particularly in the Amazon Basin and arid/semiarid regions. Improvements in parameterizing water stress and canopy dynamics, the utilization of new available satellite retrievals and deep-learning methods, and model–data fusion will advance our predictive understanding of global terrestrial ET.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2002

The Winds of B Supergiants

We present the most suitable data sets available in the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) archive for the study of time-dependent stellar winds in early B supergiants. The UV line profile variability in 11 B0 to B3 stars is analyzed, compared and discussed, based on 16 separate data sets comprising over 600 homogeneously reduced high-resolution spectrograms. The targets include 'normal' stars with moderate rotation rates and examples of rapid rotators. A gallery of grey-scale images (dynamic spectra) is presented, which demonstrates the richness and range of wind variability and highlights different structures in the winds of these stars. This work emphasizes the suitability of B supergiants for wind studies, under-pinned by the fact that they exhibit unsaturated wind lines for a wide range of ionization. The wind activity of B supergiants is substantial and has highly varied characteristics. The variability evident in individual stars is classified and described in terms of discrete absorption components, spontaneous absorption, bowed structures, recurrence, and ionization variability and stratification. Similar structures can occur in stars of different fundamental parameters but also different structures may occur in the same star at a given epoch. We discuss the physical phenomena that may be associated with the spectral signatures, and highlight the challenges that these phenomena present to theoretical studies of time-dependent outflows in massive stars. In addition, SEI line-synthesis modelling of the UV wind lines is used to provide further information about the state of the winds in our program stars. Typically the range, implied by the line profile variability, in the product of mass-loss rate and ion fraction (M qi) is a factor of approximately 1.5, when integrated between 0.2 and 0.9 v infinity; it it can however be several times larger over localized velocity regions. At a given effective temperature the mean relative ion ratios can differ by a factor of 5. The general excess in predicted (forward-scattered) emission in the low velocity regime is discussed in turns of structured outflows. Mean ion fractions are estimated over the B0 to B1 spectral classes, and trends in the ionic ratios as a function of wind velocity are described. The low values obtained for the ion fractions of UV resonance lines may reflect the role of clumping in the wind.

Massa, Derck↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning modeling and model predictive control of a closed-circuit reverse osmosis system

Closed-circuit reverse osmosis (CCRO) offers a flexible and energy-efficient alternative to conventional reverse osmosis by operating in a semi-batch mode that recycles brine, enabling higher recovery rates and reduced specific energy consumption (SEC). However, developing accurate, system-level dynamic models for CCRO remains challenging due to its nonlinear, multi-phase operation and sensitivity to variable feed water conditions. Traditional modeling approaches, such as NARMAX (nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs), often struggle to generalize across varying inlet feed concentrations, necessitating frequent parameter re-estimation and limiting their utility for real-time control applications. To address these limitations, we developed a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model trained on an extensive experimental data set from a CCRO pilot plant. The model accepts three inputs, feed flow rate, recirculation flow rate, and initial feed conductivity, and predicts three key outputs: reject conductivity, feed pump power draw, and recirculation pump power draw. We validated the LSTM model against experimental data, demonstrating its ability to distinguish between different feed conductivities and adapt to variable flow rates. Subsequently, we incorporated the LSTM model within a nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) scheme and conducted closed-loop simulations to optimize the integrated SEC (iSEC). In conclusion, the results project up to a 6% reduction in iSEC by using MPC to optimize performance over the entire experiment duration, without requiring any random excitation for data collection or parameter re-estimation.

Desalination↗

NASA NTRS2006

An Initial Non-Equilibrium Porous-Media Model for CFD Simulation of Stirling Regenerators

The objective of this paper is to define empirical parameters (or closwre models) for an initial thermai non-equilibrium porous-media model for use in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes for simulation of Stirling regenerators. The two CFD codes currently being used at Glenn Research Center (GRC) for Stirling engine modeling are Fluent and CFD-ACE. The porous-media models available in each of these codes are equilibrium models, which assmne that the solid matrix and the fluid are in thermal equilibrium at each spatial location within the porous medium. This is believed to be a poor assumption for the oscillating-flow environment within Stirling regenerators; Stirling 1-D regenerator models, used in Stirling design, we non-equilibrium regenerator models and suggest regenerator matrix and gas average temperatures can differ by several degrees at a given axial location end time during the cycle. A NASA regenerator research grant has been providing experimental and computational results to support definition of various empirical coefficients needed in defining a noa-equilibrium, macroscopic, porous-media model (i.e., to define "closure" relations). The grant effort is being led by Cleveland State University, with subcontractor assistance from the University of Minnesota, Gedeon Associates, and Sunpower, Inc. Friction-factor and heat-transfer correlations based on data taken with the NASAlSunpower oscillating-flow test rig also provide experimentally based correlations that are useful in defining parameters for the porous-media model; these correlations are documented in Gedeon Associates' Sage Stirling-Code Manuals. These sources of experimentally based information were used to define the following terms and parameters needed in the non-equilibrium porous-media model: hydrodynamic dispersion, permeability, inertial coefficient, fluid effective thermal conductivity (including themal dispersion and estimate of tortuosity effects}, and fluid-solid heat transfer coefficient. Solid effective thermal conductivity (including the effect of tortuosity) was also estimated. Determination of the porous-media model parameters was based on planned use in a CFD model of Infinia's Stirling Technology Demonstration Convertor (TDC), which uses a random-fiber regenerator matrix. The non-equilibrium porous-media model presented is considered to be an initial, or "draft," model for possible incorporation in commercial CFD codes, with the expectation that the empirical parameters will likely need to be updated once resulting Stirling CFD model regenerator and engine results have been analyzed. The emphasis of the paper is on use of available data to define empirical parameters (and closure models) needed in a thermal non-equilibrium porous-media model for Stirling regenerator simulation. Such a model has not yet been implemented by the authors or their associates. However, it is anticipated that a thermal non-equilibrium model such as that presented here, when iacorporated in the CFD codes, will improve our ability to accurately model Stirling regenerators with CFD relative to current thermal-equilibrium porous-media models.

Tew, Roy↗

NASA NTRS2007

Contrasts Between Precipitation over Mediterranean Sea and Adjacent Continental Areas Based on Decadal Scale Satellite Estimates

Most knowledge concerning the last century's climatology and climate dynamics of precipitation over the Mediterranean Sea basin is based on observations taken from rain gauges surrounding the sea itself. In turn, most of the observations come from Southern Europe, with many fewer measurements taken from widely scattered sites situated over North Africa, the Middle East, and the Balkans. This aspect of research on the Mediterranean Sea basin is apparent in a recent compilation of studies presented in book form concerning climate variability of the Mediterranean region [Lionello, P., P. Malanotte-Rizzoli, and R. Boscolo (eds.), 2006: Mediterranean Climate Variability. Elsevier, Amsterdam, 9 chapters.] In light of this missing link to over-water observations, this study (in conjunction with four companion studies by Z. Haddad, A. Mugnai, T. Nakazawa, and G. Stephens) will contrast the nature of precipitation variability directly over the Mediterranean Sea to precipitation variability over the surrounding land areas based on three decades of satellite-based precipitation estimates which have stood up well to validation scrutiny. The satellite observations are drawn from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) dataset extending back to 1979 and the TRMM Merged Algorithm 3b42 dataset extending back to 1998. Both datasets are mostly produced from microwave measurements, excepting the period from 1979 to mid-1987 when only infrared satellite measurements were available for the GPCP estimates. The purpose of this study is to emphasize how the salient properties of precipitation variability over land and sea across a hierarchy of space and time scales, and the salient differences in these properties, might be used in guiding short-term climate models to better predictions of future climate states under different regional temperature-change scenarios.

Smith, Eric A.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking the performance of uncertainty quantification methods for neural network-based interatomic potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (ML-IAPs) continue to gain popularity as accurate, computationally efficient replacements for traditional, physics-based interatomic potentials and expensive ab initio methods. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of ML-IAPs is a growing area of research as UQ is critical in many applications of IAPs, such as developing curated datasets, active learning-based data augmentation, self-improving models, and estimating the uncertainty of molecular dynamics simulations. In this paper, we construct and benchmark a series of different neural network potentials (NNPs) with varying network architectures to determine the performance of these models with respect to both the mean and uncertainty calibration error. Each NNP method is specifically designed to predict either epistemic or aleatoric uncertainty with particular focus on the differences in behavior between the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty estimates. We benchmark these methods using multiple datasets common in the ML-IAP literature. The results show that the aleatoric uncertainty from single-shot model architectures is a competitive alternative to ensemble-based epistemic uncertainty predictions in regions of sufficient data-density. However, in regions where the representative data is sparse, aleatoric uncertainty models tend to overpredict and epistemic methods tend to underpredict the actual model error. We conclude that the type of UQ is crucial when discussing performance of probabilistic model results as different methods have different performance characteristics depending on the regime in which they are evaluated. Therefore, the type of UQ method should be carefully evaluated against both the data characteristics and requirements for the intended application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2002

The Winds of B Supergiants

We present the most suitable data sets available in the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) archive for the study of time-dependent stellar winds in early B supergiants. The UV line profile variability in 11 B0 to B3 stars is analyzed, compared and discussed, based on 16 separate data sets comprising over 600 homogeneously reduced high-resolution spectrograms. The targets include 'normal' stars with moderate rotation rates and examples of rapid rotators. A gallery of grey-scale images (dynamic spectra) is presented, which demonstrates the richness and range of wind variability and highlights different structures in the winds of these stars. This work emphasises the suitability of B supergiants for wind studies, under-pinned by the fact that they exhibit unsaturated wind lines for a wide range of ionization. The wind activity of B supergiants is substantial and has highly varied characteristics. The variability evident in individual stars is classified and described in terms of discrete absorption components, spontaneous absorption, bowed structures, recurrence, and ionization variability and stratification. Similar structures can occur in stars of different fundamental parameters, but also different structures may occur in the same star at a given epoch. We discuss the physical phenomena that may be associated with the spectral signatures, and highlight the challenges that these phenomena present to theoretical studies of time-dependent outflows in massive stars. In addition, SEI line-synthesis modelling of the UV wind lines is used to provide further information about the state of the winds in our program stars. Typically the range, implied by the line profile variability, in the product of mass-loss rate and ion fraction (M (dot) q(sub i)) is a factor of approximately 1.5, when integrated between 0.2 and 0.9 v infinity; it can however be several times larger over localized velocity regions. At a given effective temperature the mean relative ion ratios can differ by a factor of 5. The general excess in predicted (forward-scattered) emission in the low velocity regime is discussed in terms of structured outflows. Mean ion fractions are estimated over the B0 to B1 spectral classes, and trends in the ionic ratios as a function of wind velocity are described. The low values obtained for the ion fractions of UV resonance lines may reflect the role of clumping in the wind.

Massa, D.↗