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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,639 records · Page 91
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Assimilation of a Coordinated Fleet of Uncrewed Aircraft System Observations in Complex Terrain: Observing System Experiments

Uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) observations from the Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation–A Remotely-Piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE) field campaign were assimilated into a high-resolution configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The impact of assimilating targeted UAS observations in addition to surface observations was compared to that obtained when assimilating surface observations alone using observing system experiments (OSEs) for a terrain-driven flow case and a convection initiation (CI) case observed within Colorado’s San Luis Valley (SLV). The assimilation of UAS observations in addition to surface observations results in a clear increase in skill for both flow regimes over that obtained when assimilating surface observations alone. For the terrain-driven flow case, the UAS observations improved the representation of thermal stratification across the northern SLV, which produced stronger upvalley flow over the eastern half of the SLV that better matched the observations. For the CI case, the UAS observations improved the representation of the pre-convective environment by reducing dry biases across the SLV and over the surrounding terrain. This led to earlier CI and more organized convection over the foothills that spilled outflows into the SLV, ultimately helping to increase low-level convergence and CI there. In addition, the importance of UAS capturing an outflow that originated over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and triggered CI is discussed. These outflows and subsequent CI were not well captured in the simulation that assimilated surface observations alone. We report that observations obtained with a fleet of UAS are shown to notably improve high-resolution analyses and short-term predictions of two very different mesogamma-scale weather events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Model-Based Sensor Placement for Component Condition Monitoring and Fault Diagnosis in Fossil Energy Systems

Design and operation of energy producing, near “zero-emission” coal plants has become a national imperative. This report on model-based sensor placement describes a transformative two-tier approach to identify the optimum placement, number, and type of sensors for condition monitoring and fault diagnosis in fossil energy system operations. The algorithms are tested on a high fidelity model of the integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plant. For a condition monitoring network, whether equipment should be considered at a unit level or a systems level depends upon the criticality of the process equipment, its likeliness to fail, and the level of resolution desired for any specific failure. Because of the presence of a high fidelity model at the unit level, a sensor network can be designed to monitor the spatial profile of the states and estimate fault severity levels. In an IGCC plant, besides the gasifier, the sour water gas shift (WGS) reactor plays an important role. In view of this, condition monitoring of the sour WGS reactor is considered at the unit level, while a detailed plant-wide model of gasification island, including sour WGS reactor and the Selexol process, is considered for fault diagnosis at the system-level. Finally, the developed algorithms unify the two levels and identifies an optimal sensor network that maximizes the effectiveness of the overall system-level fault diagnosis and component-level condition monitoring. This work could have a major impact on the design and operation of future fossil energy plants, particularly at the grassroots level where the sensor network is yet to be identified. In addition, the same algorithms developed in this report can be further enhanced to be used in retrofits, where the objectives could be upgrade (addition of more sensors) and relocation of existing sensors.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

PyDA: A Hands-On Introduction to Dynamical Data Assimilation with Python

Dynamic data assimilation offers a suite of algorithms that merge measurement data with numerical simulations to predict accurate state trajectories. Meteorological centers rely heavily on data assimilation to achieve trustworthy weather forecast. With the advance in measurement systems, as well as the reduction in sensor prices, data assimilation (DA) techniques are applicable to various fields, other than meteorology. However, beginners usually face hardships digesting the core ideas from the available sophisticated resources requiring a steep learning curve. In this tutorial, we lay out the mathematical principles behind DA with easy-to-follow Python module implementations so that this group of newcomers can quickly feel the essence of DA algorithms. We explore a series of common variational, and sequential techniques, and highlight major differences and potential extensions. We demonstrate the presented approaches using an array of fluid flow applications with varying levels of complexity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Automatic Calibration and Health Monitoring of Infrastructure Sensors

Smart transportation infrastructure relies on networks of heterogeneous sensors - cameras, radars, and lidars - continuously monitoring traffic conditions. However, executing the initial spatial calibration of multiple sensors and the subsequent health monitoring presents significant operational challenges. Environmental factors, mechanical vibrations, and gradual drift cause spatial misalignment, degrading fusion performance and tracking accuracy. Traditional calibration approaches require manual intervention with specialized targets or survey equipment, resulting in service interruptions and high maintenance costs. This work presents an automated framework for initial calibration and continuous health monitoring without human intervention or service disruption. Our approach addresses two critical problems: (1) detecting when sensors become miscalibrated during operation, and (2) automatically re-establishing spatial alignment using only operational traffic data. The health monitoring component analyzes measurement innovations - differences between sensor observations and predicted object states - to detect systematic biases indicative of calibration drift. By computing bias magnitude, directional consistency, and rejection rates, the system identifies miscalibrations as small as 0.5 meters. Unlike traditional methods requiring known calibration targets, our diagnostic operates continuously on live traffic observations, enabling early detection before fusion quality degrades. The automatic recalibration algorithm leverages overlapping sensor fields-of-view and temporal correlation of vehicle observations. Using graph-based optimization, the system automatically discovers which sensor pairs observe common regions, estimates pairwise spatial transformations using RANSAC-based robust estimation, and jointly optimizes all sensor poses through bundle adjustment. The framework handles practical deployment challenges, including different sensor sampling rates (1-10 Hz), varying installation positions, unknown orientations, and limited overlap regions (>10%). When approximate sensor positions are available from installation surveys (+/-1m accuracy), the algorithm additionally estimates sensor orientations, refining both position and rotation to sub-meter and sub-degree accuracy. We validate the framework on multi-hour traffic datasets from six heterogeneous sensors with sampling rates ranging from 1 Hz to 10 Hz. Results demonstrate successful calibration even with sparse overlap (<20%) and automatic detection of miscalibrations exceeding 0.8 meters. This work enables a "deploy-and-forget" sensor infrastructure that maintains calibration autonomously, reducing maintenance costs while improving tracking accuracy. The techniques generalize beyond transportation to any multi-sensor monitoring application requiring robust spatial alignment, including smart cities, industrial monitoring, and surveillance systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1972

Orbit determination in the presence of unmodeled accelerations.

In the investigation discussed here, the unmodeled acceleration is approximated as a first-order stationary Gauss-Markov process which can be separated into a time wise correlated component and a purely random component. An extended form of the Kalman-Bucy filter is used to estimate the state and the unmodeled accelerations at each observation epoch. Applications of the estimation algorithm to simulated data and to tracking data obtained during the Apollo 10 and 11 missions indicate that a more accurate estimate of the state is obtained using the algorithm and that the estimated values of the unmodeled accelerations can be correlated with physical phenomena neglected by the mathematical model.

Tapley, B. D.↗
NASA NTRS1972

On the determination of optimal costly measurement strategies for linear stochastic systems.

This paper presents the formulation of a class of optimization problems dealing with selecting, at each instant of time, one measurement provided by one out of many sensors. Each measurement has an associated measurement cost. The basic problem is then to select an optimal measurement policy, during a specified observation time interval, so that a weighted combination of prediction accuracy and accumulated observation cost is optimized. The current analysis is limited to the class of linear stochastic dynamic systems and measurement subsystems. The problem of selecting the optimal measurement strategy can be transformed into a deterministic optimal control problem. It is shown that the optimal measurement policy and the associated matched Kalman-type filter can be precomputed.

Athans, M.↗
NASA NTRS1973

An analytical investigation of acquisition techniques and system integration studies for a radar aircraft guidance research facility, phase 2

A review of user requirements and updated instrumentation plans are presented for the aircraft tracking and guidance facility at NASA Wallops Station. User demand has increased as a result of new flight research programs; however, basic requirements remain the same as originally reported. Instrumentation plans remain essentially the same but with plans for up- and down-link telemetry more firm. With slippages in the laser acquisition schedule, added importance is placed on the FPS-16 radar as the primary tracking device until the laser is available. Limited simulation studies of a particular Kalman-type filter are also presented. These studies simulated the use of the filter in a helicopter guidance loop in a real-time mode. Disadvantages and limitations of this mode of operation are pointed out. Laser eyesafety calculations show that laser tracking of aircraft is readily feasible from the eyesafety viewpoint.

Thompson, W. S.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Estimation and detection of signals in multiplicative noise

A class of detection-estimation problems on matrix Lie groups is defined in which the observation noise is multiplicative in nature. By examining the differential versions of the hypotheses, which are bilinear in nature, it is possible to derive the relevant likelihood ratio formula and the associated optimal estimation equations for the signal given the observations and the assumption that the signal is present. These estimation equations are of interest in their own right, in that they represent a finite dimensional optimal solution to a nonlinear estimation problem and can be viewed as consisting of a Kalman-Bucy filter along with the on-line computation of the solution of the associated Riccati equation, which is driven by the observations. The usefulness of these results is illustrated via an example concerning the detection of an actuator failure in a rigid body rotational control system.

Willsky, A. S.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Space Trajectory Error Analysis Program (STEAP) for halo orbit missions. Volume 1: Analytic and user's manual

Development, test, conversion, and documentation of computer software for the mission analysis of missions to halo orbits about libration points in the earth-sun system is reported. The software consisting of two programs called NOMNAL and ERRAN is part of the Space Trajectories Error Analysis Programs (STEAP). The program NOMNAL targets a transfer trajectory from Earth on a given launch date to a specified halo orbit on a required arrival date. Either impulsive or finite thrust insertion maneuvers into halo orbit are permitted by the program. The transfer trajectory is consistent with a realistic launch profile input by the user. The second program ERRAN conducts error analyses of the targeted transfer trajectory. Measurements including range, doppler, star-planet angles, and apparent planet diameter are processed in a Kalman-Schmidt filter to determine the trajectory knowledge uncertainty. Execution errors at injection, midcourse correction and orbit insertion maneuvers are analyzed along with the navigation uncertainty to determine trajectory control uncertainties and fuel-sizing requirements. The program is also capable of generalized covariance analyses.

Byrnes, D. V.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Space Trajectory Error Analysis Program (STEAP) for halo orbit missions. Volume 2: Programmer's manual

The six month effort was responsible for the development, test, conversion, and documentation of computer software for the mission analysis of missions to halo orbits about libration points in the earth-sun system. The software consisting of two programs called NOMNAL and ERRAN is part of the Space Trajectories Error Analysis Programs. The program NOMNAL targets a transfer trajectory from earth on a given launch date to a specified halo orbit on a required arrival date. Either impulsive or finite thrust insertion maneuvers into halo orbit are permitted by the program. The transfer trajectory is consistent with a realistic launch profile input by the user. The second program ERRAN conducts error analyses of the targeted transfer trajectory. Measurements including range, doppler, star-planet angles, and apparent planet diameter are processed in a Kalman-Schmidt filter to determine the trajectory knowledge uncertainty.

Byrnes, D. V.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Digital adaptive model following flight control

Simple mechanical linkages are often unable to cope with the many control problems associated with high performance aircraft maneuvering over a wide flight envelope. One procedure for retaining uniform handling qualities over such an envelope is to implement a digital adaptive controller. Towards such an implementation an explicit adaptive controller, which makes direct use of online parameter identification, has been developed and applied to the linearized equations of motion for a typical fighter aircraft. The system is composed of an online weighted least squares identifier, a Kalman state filter, and a single stage real model following control law. The corresponding control gains are readily adjustable in accordance with parameter changes to ensure asymptotic stability if the conditions for perfect model following are satisfied and stability in the sense of boundedness otherwise.

Alag, G. S.↗
NASA NTRS1975

New method for propagating the square root covariance matrix in triangular form

A method proposed by Potter of applying the Kalman-Bucy filter to the problem of estimating the state of a dynamic system is described, in which the square root of the state error covariance matrix is used to process the observations. A new technique which propagates the covariance square root matrix in lower triangular form is given for the discrete observation case. The technique is faster than previously proposed algorithms and is well-adapted for use with the Carlson square root measurement algorithm.

Choe, C. Y.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Digital adaptive flight control design using single stage model following indices

Simple mechanical linkages are often unable to cope with many control problems associated with high-performance aircraft. This has led to the development of digital fly-by-wire control systems and in particular digital adaptive controllers that can be efficiently adjusted during system operation. To this effect, a control law has been derived based upon the minimization of a single-stage weighted combination of control energy and the squared error between the states of a linear plant and model. This control logic is interfaced with an on-line weighted least-squares estimator and a Kalman state filter. The utility of the resultant control system is illustrated by its application to the linearized dynamics of a typical fighter aircraft.

Alag, G.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Estimation and detection of signals in multiplicative noise

We define a class of detection-estimation problems on matrix Lie groups in which the observation noise is multiplicative in nature. By examining the differential versions of the hypotheses, which are bilinear, we are able to derive the relevant likelihood ratio formula and the associated optimal estimation equations for the signal given the observations and the assumption that the signal is present. These estimation equations are of interest in their own right, in that they represent a finite-dimensional optimal solution to a nonlinear estimation problem and consist of a Kalman-Bucy filter along with the on-line computation of the solution of the associated Riccati equation, which is driven by the observations. The usefulness of these results is illustrated via an example concerning the detection of an actuator failure in a rigid-body rotational control system.

Willsky, A. S.↗