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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,639 records · Page 91

Enhanced Boundary Layer Height Detection Using Ceilometer, Surface Meteorology, and Radiation Products With a Random Forest Ensemble Method

This study develops and evaluates a Random Forest (RF) model for estimating planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) using 9 years of data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (ARM SGP) user facility, with potential application in the NOAA Surface Radiation (SURFRAD) Network. The model integrates ceilometer, surface meteorology, and radiation measurements, and is trained using thermodynamic PBLH estimates derived from radiosondes. This approach aims to bridge gaps between aerosol-based and thermodynamic-based PBLH estimates. The RF model outperformed traditional methods during daytime and better captured transition periods, demonstrating improved accuracy and robustness. At ARM SGP, it showed a substantial reduction in both bias and RMSE, with a bias near zero (−4.9 m) compared with traditional Haar Wavelet (HW) (70.9 m) and Vaisala BL-View software (124.1 m), and an RMSE of 303.2 m, lower than both BL-View (566.9 m) and HW (404.6 m). During daytime hours, RF consistently outperformed both alternatives, maintaining lower bias and RMSE across all periods. At a second evaluation site, RF achieved the lowest overall RMSE (323.7 m), similar to HW (326.4 m) and significantly better than BL-View (738.3 m). However, all models showed reduced accuracy under stable nighttime conditions, limiting the reliability of PBLH estimates. Key predictors for the model included the lifting condensation level height (LCLH), aerosol gradients, and month for seasonal variability. The study underscores the potential of integrating machine learning with multiple data sets such as surface energy and thermodynamic data to advance PBLH estimation.

boundary layer height↗

Advancing Methodologies for Applying Machine Learning and Evaluating Spatiotemporal Models of Fine Particulate Matter (PM 2.5 ) Using Satellite Data Over Large Regions

Reconstructing the distribution of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in space and time, even far from ground monitoring sites, is an important exposure science contribution to epidemiologic analyses of PM 2.5 health impacts. Flexible statistical methods for prediction have demonstrated the integration of satellite observations with other predictors, yet these algorithms are susceptible to overfitting the spatiotemporal structure of the training datasets. We present a new approach for predicting PM 2.5 using machine-learning methods and evaluating prediction models for the goal of making predictions where they were not previously available. We apply extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) modeling to predict daily PM 2.5 on a 1 x 1 km 2 resolution for a 13 state region in the Northeastern USA for the years 2000–2015 using satellite-derived aerosol optical depth and implement a recursive feature selection to develop a parsimonious model. We demonstrate excellent predictions of withheld observations but also contrast an RMSE of 3.11 μg/m 3 in our spatial cross-validation withholding nearby sites versus an overfit RMSE of 2.10 μg/m 3 using a more conventional random ten-fold splitting of the dataset. As the field of exposure science moves forward with the use of advanced machine-learning approaches for spatiotemporal modeling of air pollutants, our results show the importance of addressing data leakage in training, overfitting to spatiotemporal structure, and the impact of the predominance of ground monitoring sites in dense urban sub-networks on model evaluation. The strengths of our resultant modeling approach for exposure in epidemiologic studies of PM 2.5 include improved efficiency, parsimony, and interpretability with robust validation while still accommodating complex spatiotemporal relationships.

air pollution↗

Surrogate-driven design optimization with uncertainty constraints in Monte Carlo simulations

In multi-objective design tasks, the computational cost increases rapidly when high-fidelity simulations are used to evaluate objective functions. Surrogate models help mitigate this cost by approximating the simulation output, simplifying the design process. However, under high uncertainty, surrogate models trained on noisy data can produce inaccurate predictions, as their performance depends heavily on the quality of training data. This study investigates the impact of data uncertainty on two multi-objective design problems modelled using Monte Carlo transport simulations: a neutron moderator and an ion-to-neutron converter. For each, a grid search was performed using five different tally uncertainty levels to generate training data for neural network surrogate models. These models were then optimized using NSGA-III. The recovered Pareto-fronts were analyzed across uncertainty levels: in the moderator problem, normalized hypervolume dropped from 0.886 at 1.0% uncertainty to 0.748 at 10% uncertainty, while in the converter problem it remained near 0.50 for all cases. Average simulation times were also compared to evaluate the trade-off between accuracy and computational cost. Results show that the influence of simulation uncertainty is strongly problem-dependent. In the neutron moderator case, higher uncertainties led to exaggerated objective sensitivities and distorted Pareto-fronts, reducing normalized hypervolume. In contrast, the ion-to-neutron converter task was less affected—low-fidelity simulations produced results similar to those from high-fidelity data. These findings suggest that a fixed-fidelity approach is not optimal. Surrogate models can recover the Pareto-front under noisy conditions, and multi-fidelity studies help identify suitable uncertainty levels for each problem to balance efficiency and accuracy.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Physics-Informed Machine Learning for Epidemiological Models

One challenge of using compartmental SEIR models for public health planning is the difficulty in manually tuning parameters to capture behavior reflected in the real-world data. This team conducted initial, exploratory analysis of a novel technique to use physics-informed machine learning tools to rapidly develop data-driven models for physical systems. This machine learning approach may be used to perform data assimilation of compartment models which account for unknown interactions between geospatial domains (i.e. diffusion processes coupling across neighborhoods/counties/states/etc.). Results presented here are early, proof-of-concept ideas that demonstrate initial success in using a physically informed neural network (PINN) model to assimilate data in a compartmental epidemiology model. The results demonstrate initial success and warrant further research and development.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning-Based Temperature Prediction for Runtime Thermal Management Across System Components

Elevated temperatures limit the peak performance of systems because of frequent interventions by thermal throttling. Non-uniform thermal states across system nodes also cause performance variation within seemingly equivalent nodes leading to significant degradation of overall performance. In this paper we present a framework for creating a lightweight thermal prediction system suitable for run-time management decisions. We pursue two avenues to explore optimized lightweight thermal predictors. First, we use feature selection algorithms to improve the performance of previously designed machine learning methods. Second, we develop alternative methods using neural network and linear regression-based methods to perform a comprehensive comparative study of prediction methods. We show that our optimized models achieve improved performance with better prediction accuracy and lower overhead as compared with the Gaussian process model proposed previously. Specifically we present a reduced version of the Gaussian process model, a neural network-based model, and a linear regression-based model. Using the optimization methods, we are able to reduce the average prediction errors in the Gaussian process from 4: 2 degrees C to 2: 9 degrees C. We also show that the newly developed models using neural network and Lasso linear regression have average prediction errors of 2: 9 degrees C and 3: 8 degrees C respectively. The prediction overheads are 0.22, 0.097, and 0.026 ms per prediction for reduced Gaussian process, neural network, and Lasso linear regression models, respectively, compared with 0.57 ms per prediction for the previous Gaussian process model. We have implemented our proposed thermal prediction models on a two-node system configuration to help identify the optimal task placement. The task placement identified by the models reduces the average system temperature by up to 11: 9 degrees C without any performance degradation. Furthermore, these models respectively achieve 75, 82.5, and 74.17 percent success rates in correctly pointing to those task placements with better thermal response, compared with 72.5 percent success for the original model in achieving the same objective. Lastly, we extended our analysis to a 16-node system and we were able to train models and execute them in real time to guide task migration and achieve on average 17 percent reduction in the overall system cooling power.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Building Modelling Methodologies for Virtual District Heating and Cooling Networks

District heating and cooling systems (DHC) are a proven energy solution that has been deployed for many years in a growing number of urban areas worldwide. They comprise a variety of technologies that seek to develop synergies between the production and supply of heat, cooling, domestic hot water and electricity. Although the benefits of DHC systems are significant and have been widely acclaimed, yet the full potential of modern DHC systems remains largely untapped. There are several opportunities for development of energy efficient DHC systems, which will enable the effective exploitation of alternative renewable resources, waste heat recovery, etc., in order to increase the overall efficiency and facilitate the transition towards the next generation of DHC systems. This motivated the need for modelling these complex systems. Large-scale modelling of DHC-networks is challenging, as it has several components interacting with each other. In this paper we present two building methodologies to model the consumer buildings. These models will be further integrated with network model and the control system layer to create a virtual test bed for the entire DHC system. The model is validated using data collected from a real life DHC system located at Lulea, a city on the coast of northern Sweden. The test bed will be then used for simulating various test cases such as peak energy reduction, overall demand reduction etc.

Saurav, Kumar↗

Quantum Ising model on (2+1)-dimensional anti–de Sitter space using tensor networks

We study the quantum Ising model on (2+1)-dimensional anti-de Sitter space using matrix product states (MPS) and matrix product operators (MPOs). We explore the bulk phase diagram of the theory on regular tessellations of hyperbolic space with coordination number seven and find disordered and ordered phases separated by a phase transition. We find that the boundary-boundary spin correlation function exhibits power law scaling deep in the disordered phase of the Ising model consistent with holography. At the critical point, we find the boundary entanglement entropy scales logarithmically with subsystem size but away from this, we see a linear scaling. In comparison, the full system exhibits a volume law scaling, which is expected in chaotic and/or highly connected systems. We also measure out of time ordered correlators (OTOCs) to explore the scrambling behavior of the theory.

Quantum spin models↗

High–Resolution Maps of Near–Surface Permafrost for Three Watersheds on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska Derived From Machine Learning

Permafrost soils are a critical component of the global carbon cycle and are locally important because they regulate the hydrologic flux from uplands to rivers. Furthermore, degradation of permafrost soils causes land surface subsidence, damaging infrastructure that is crucial for local communities. Regional and hemispherical maps of permafrost are too coarse to resolve distributions at a scale relevant to assessments of infrastructure stability or to illuminate geomorphic impacts of permafrost thaw. Here we train machine learning models to generate meter–scale maps of near–surface permafrost for three watersheds in the discontinuous permafrost region. The models were trained using ground truth determinations of near–surface permafrost presence from measurements of soil temperature and electrical resistivity. We trained three classifiers: extremely randomized trees (ERTr), support vector machines (SVM), and an artificial neural network (ANN). Model uncertainty was determined using k–fold cross validation, and the modeled extents of near–surface permafrost were compared to the observed extents at each site. At–a–site near–surface permafrost distributions predicted by the ERTr produced the highest accuracy (70%–90%). However, the transferability of the ERTr to the sites outside of the training data set was poor, with accuracies ranging from 50% to 77%. The SVM and ANN models had lower accuracies for at–a–site prediction (70%–83%), yet they had greater accuracy when transferred to the non–training site (62%–78%). These models demonstrate the potential for integrating high–resolution spatial data and machine learning models to develop maps of near–surface permafrost extent at resolutions fine enough to assess infrastructure vulnerability and landscape morphology influenced by permafrost thaw.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantum Networks for Resilient Power Grids: Theory and Simulated Evaluation

Quantum networks are considered the future of secure communication in the coming quantum era. Yet there lack significant efforts on developing practical quantum networks for power grids. Here, in this paper, we establish a quantum network-based power grid (QNetGrid) framework and develops a real-time, reliable, flexible, programmable, and cost-effective QNetGrid software testbed containing repeater-based quantum communication, quantum routing, real software-defined networking (SDN) switches, and real-time networked microgrids (NMs) operations. It makes the following contributions: 1) a repeater and routing based quantum network simulator (QNSim) is developed, 2) repeaters with and without quantum memories are respectively simulated in QNSim, 3) different routing scenarios in QNetGrid are investigated, 4) a real-time QNetGrid software testbed is built in RTDS incorporating QNSim and real SDN switches, and 5) various test cases are designed, and experimental results produced with the QNetGrid testbed provide valuable insights for building quantum networks in power grids.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A novel transfer learning framework for sorghum biomass prediction using UAV-based remote sensing data and genetic markers

Yield for biofuel crops is measured in terms of biomass, so measurements throughout the growing season are crucial in breeding programs, yet traditionally time- and labor-consuming since they involve destructive sampling. Modern remote sensing platforms, such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), can carry multiple sensors and collect numerous phenotypic traits with efficient, non-invasive field surveys. However, modeling the complex relationships between the observed phenotypic traits and biomass remains a challenging task, as the ground reference data are very limited for each genotype in the breeding experiment. In this study, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) model is proposed for sorghum biomass prediction. The architecture is designed to exploit the time series remote sensing and weather data, as well as static genotypic information. As a large number of features have been derived from the remote sensing data, feature importance analysis is conducted to identify and remove redundant features. A strategy to extract representative information from high-dimensional genetic markers is proposed. To enhance generalization and minimize the need for ground reference data, transfer learning strategies are proposed for selecting the most informative training samples from the target domain. Consequently, a pre-trained model can be refined with limited training samples. Field experiments were conducted over a sorghum breeding trial planted in multiple years with more than 600 testcross hybrids. The results show that the proposed LSTM-based RNN model can achieve high accuracies for single year prediction. Further, with the proposed transfer learning strategies, a pre-trained model can be refined with limited training samples from the target domain and predict biomass with an accuracy comparable to that from a trained-from-scratch model for both multiple experiments within a given year and across multiple years.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A model to assess the Mars Telecommunications Network relay robustness

The relatively long mission durations and compatible radio protocols of current and projected Mars orbiters have enabled the gradual development of a heterogeneous constellation providing proximity communication services for surface assets. The current and forecasted capability of this evolving network has reached the point that designers of future surface missions consider complete dependence on it. Such designers, along with those architecting network requirements, have a need to understand the robustness of projected communication service. A model has been created to identify the robustness of the Mars Network as a function of surface location and time. Due to the decade-plus time horizon considered, the network will evolve, with emerging productive nodes and nodes that cease or fail to contribute. The model is a flexible framework to holistically process node information into measures of capability robustness that can be visualized for maximum understanding. Outputs from JPL's Telecom Orbit Analysis Simulation Tool (TOAST) provide global telecom performance parameters for current and projected orbiters. Probabilistic estimates of orbiter fuel life are derived from orbit keeping burn rates, forecasted maneuver tasking, and anomaly resolution budgets. Orbiter reliability is estimated probabilistically. A flexible scheduling framework accommodates the projected mission queue as well as potential alterations.

Mars Telecommunications Orbiter (MTO)↗

pyFLANK, a graph neural network based null distribution inference model for F ST outlier detection

Detecting genomic regions under selection is essential for understanding how populations adapt to different environments, yet it remains challenging due to the confounding effects of demographic history and linkage disequilibrium (LD). Fixation index (F ST ) is a widely used statistic to identify genomic regions under adaptation. However, identifying genes under selection by defining F ST outliers often remains challenging, owing to confounding effects of underlying demographic history. Traditional methods assume independence among loci and rely on simple demographic models, while newer models perform much better but are computationally expensive and not easily scalable. Here, we present pyFLANK, an open-source and automated Python implementation which detects F ST outliers using a null distribution inferred from quasi-independent loci. Our tool integrates three approaches to identify loci obeying a null distribution: graph neural network (GNN) inference, linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based inference, and user-defined input. Because pyFLANK uses GNN-based inference of quasi-independent loci, it yields a more accurate null model with less need for user parameter input. In simulation experiments, pyFLANK achieved lower false positive rates than current methods while maintaining comparable detection power, indicating that its refined null model better distinguishes true adaptive loci from background variation. The GNN-based model, in particular, detected additional loci associated with phenotypic variance that were not identified by existing methods. Assessments of simulation and real data from different species demonstrate that pyFLANK achieves lower false positive rates compared with other commonly used F ST outlier detectors, while maintaining comparable detection power and excellent computational performance, providing a robust and user-friendly tool for identifying loci under divergent selection. It extends existing F ST outlier frameworks by incorporating explicit LD-aware strategies for null model calibration. The method is intended as a practical and scalable complement to existing genome scan approaches.

FST↗

A deep neural network regressor for phase constitution estimation in the high entropy alloy system Al-Co-Cr-Fe-Mn-Nb-Ni

High Entropy Alloys (HEAs) are composed of more than one principal element and constitute a major paradigm in metals research. The HEA space is vast and an exhaustive exploration is improbable. Therefore, a thorough estimation of the phases present in the HEA is of paramount importance for alloy design. Machine Learning presents a feasible and non-expensive method for predicting possible new HEAs on-the-fly. A deep neural network (DNN) model for the elemental system of: Mn, Ni, Fe, Al, Cr, Nb, and Co is developed using a dataset generated by high-throughput computational thermodynamic calculations using Thermo-Calc. The features list used for the neural network is developed based on literature and freely available databases. A feature significance analysis matches the reported HEAs phase constitution trends on elemental properties and further expands it by providing so far-overlooked features. The final regressor has a coefficient of determination ( r 2 ) greater than 0.96 for identifying the most recurrent phases and the functionality is tested by running optimization tasks that simulate those required in alloy design. The DNN developed constitutes an example of an emulator that can be used in fast, real-time materials discovery/design tasks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Equation‐Free Surrogate Modeling of Geophysical Flows at the Intersection of Machine Learning and Data Assimilation

Abstract There is a growing interest in developing data‐driven reduced‐order models for atmospheric and oceanic flows that are trained on data obtained either from high‐resolution simulations or satellite observations. The data‐driven models are non‐intrusive in nature and offer significant computational savings compared to large‐scale numerical models. These low‐dimensional models can be utilized to reduce the computational burden of generating forecasts and estimating model uncertainty without losing the key information needed for data assimilation (DA) to produce accurate state estimates. This paper aims at exploring an equation‐free surrogate modeling approach at the intersection of machine learning and DA in Earth system modeling. With this objective, we introduce an end‐to‐end non‐intrusive reduced‐order modeling (NIROM) framework equipped with contributions in modal decomposition, time series prediction, optimal sensor placement, and sequential DA. Specifically, we use proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to identify the dominant structures of the flow, and a long short‐term memory network to model the dynamics of the POD modes. The NIROM is integrated within the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter (DEnKF) to incorporate sparse and noisy observations at optimal sensor locations obtained through QR pivoting. The feasibility and the benefit of the proposed framework are demonstrated for the NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (SST) V2 data set. Our results indicate that the NIROM is stable for long‐term forecasting and can model dynamics of SST with a reasonable level of accuracy. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy of the NIROM gets improved by almost one order of magnitude by the DEnKF algorithm.

Pawar, Suraj↗

New Developments and Capabilities Within WEC-Sim

WEC-Sim is an open-source software for simulating wave energy converters and has been actively developed and applied since its initial release in 2014 to simulate a wide variety of device archetypes. WEC-Sim is developed jointly by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories within the MATLAB/SIMULINK environment. A general wave-to-wire model begins with a deployment site resource characterization, which is used to complete the hydrodynamic simulation of wave energy converters (WEC), with the power generation profile imported to a grid simulator to understand the influence on the local electrical network. While modeling the entire wave-to-wire is difficult and encompasses multiple time scales and physics, WEC-Sim is focused on the hydrodynamics simulation to predict, analyze, and optimize WEC dynamics and power performance. WEC-Sim simulations are performed in the time domain based on the radiation and diffraction method using hydrodynamics coefficients derived from boundary element method (BEM)-based frequency-domain potential flow solvers (e.g., WAMIT, NEMOH, Capytaine, or ANSYS-AQWA). With this level of modeling fidelity, WEC-Sim can handle floating body hydrodynamics, mechanical and electrical power generation methods, advanced control implementation, mooring systems, and other unique applications such as desalination. Additional WEC-Sim functionalities include pre-built Simulink blocks and MATLAB scripts that can simulate a wide range of floating systems and the corresponding auxiliary subsystems. The developers of WEC-Sim continue to release new versions of the software, at least annually, with the latest release in September 2022. These releases include bug fixes, updates to software documentation, as well as new features to expand WEC-Sim's capabilities to model a wide range of WEC concepts. This publication will highlight the new features added to WEC-Sim between versions 4.1.0 to 5.0.1, which spans a 2-year period from June 2020 to September 2022. New features described here include topics such as continuous integration checks, revised Morison Element and nonlinear hydro implementations, run directly from Simulink (required for hardware-in-the-loop execution), BEMIO updates to import Capytaine BEM hydrodynamics, addition of cable blocks, and new wave visualization features.

TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

New Developments and Capabilities Within WEC-Sim: Preprint

WEC-Sim is an open-source software for simulating wave energy converters, which has been actively developed and applied since its initial release in 2014 to simulate a wide variety of device archetypes. WEC-Sim is developed jointly by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) within the MATLAB/SIMULINK environment. A general wave-to-wire model begins with a deployment site resource characterization, which is used to complete the hydrodynamic simulation of wave energy converters (WEC), with the power generation profile imported to a grid simulator to understand the influence on the local electrical network. While modeling the entire wave-to-wire is difficult and encompasses multiple time scales and physics, WEC-Sim is focused on the hydrodynamics simulation to predict, analyze, and optimize WEC dynamics and power performance. WEC-Sim simulations are performed in the time domain based on the radiation and diffraction method using hydrodynamics coefficients derived from boundary element method (BEM)-based frequency-domain potential flow solvers (e.g., WAMIT, NEMOH, Capytaine, or ANSYS-AQWA). With this level of modeling fidelity, WEC-Sim can handle floating body hydrodynamics, mechanical and electrical power generation methods, advanced control implementation, mooring systems, and other unique applications such as desalination. Additional WEC-Sim functionalities include pre-built Simulink blocks and MATLAB scripts that can simulate a wide range of floating systems and the corresponding auxiliary subsystems. The developers of WEC-Sim continue to release new versions of the software, at least annually, with our latest release in September 2022. These releases include bug fixes, updates to software documentation, as well as new features to expand WEC-Sim's capabilities to model a wide range of WEC concepts. This publication will highlight the new features added to WEC-Sim between versions 4.1.0 to 5.0.1 which spans over a two year period from June 2020 to September 2022. New features to be described will include topics such as continuous integration checks, revised Morison Element and nonlinear hydro implementations, run directly from Simulink (required for hardware-in-the-loop execution), BEMIO updates to import Capytaine BEM hydrodynamics, addition of cable blocks, and new wave visualization features.

TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Treating network junctions in finite volume solution of transient gas flow models

A finite volume scheme for the numerical solution of a non-isothermal non-adiabatic compressible flow model for gas transportation networks on non-flat topography is introduced. Unlike standard Euler equations, the model takes into account wall friction, variable height and heat transfer between the pipe and the environment which are source terms. The case of one single pipe was considered in a previous reference by the authors, , where a finite volume method with upwind discretization of the flux and source terms has been proposed in order to get a well-balanced scheme. The main goal of the present paper is to go a step further by considering a network of pipes. The main issue is the treatment of junctions for which container-like 2D finite volumes are introduced. The couplings between pipes (1D) and containers (2D) are carefully described and the conservation properties are analyzed. Numerical tests including real gas networks are solved showing the performance of the proposed methodology.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

sNebula, a network-based algorithm to predict binding between human leukocyte antigens and peptides

Understanding the binding between human leukocyte antigens (HLAs) and peptides is important to understand the functioning of the immune system. Since it is time-consuming and costly to measure the binding between large numbers of HLAs and peptides, computational methods including machine learning models and network approaches have been developed to predict HLA-peptide binding. However, there are several limitations for the existing methods. We developed a network-based algorithm called sNebula to address these limitations. We curated qualitative Class I HLA-peptide binding data and demonstrated the prediction performance of sNebula on this dataset using leave-one-out cross-validation and five-fold cross-validations. Furthermore, this algorithm can predict not only peptides of different lengths and different types of HLAs, but also the peptides or HLAs that have no existing binding data. We believe sNebula is an effective method to predict HLA-peptide binding and thus improve our understanding of the immune system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗