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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,639 records · Page 91
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Need for advanced research reactors for the next-generation reactor physics, analysis tools, and technology

Full text of publication follows. There is an urgent need for design and deployment of advanced research and test reactors in support of design, licensing and operation of advanced power reactors and education of next generation nuclear workforce. Existing research reactors mostly were designed and constructed decades ago with the main objectives of training operators, performing reactor physics experiments, and educating nuclear engineers and scientists. There are already gaps and significant concern about future capabilities for the existing research reactor facilities to address modern instrumentation and/or flexible environments for: performing reactor physics studies for advanced designs which have significantly different core materials forms and compositions, reactor shapes and size; validation of advanced high-fidelity software; development of machine learning algorithms for enhancement of human-machine collaboration in support of reactor monitoring, operation and safeguards; and, effective education of the next-generation workforce. The authors will focus on the need for advanced research reactors to improve and validate fast and accurate simulation tools for high-fidelity modeling and analysis of nuclear reactors in support of their design, optimization, licensing, operation, and monitoring. In the past, simulation tools were limited to relatively coarse models using approximate methodologies that benefited from two main factors: i) allowance for large margins and tolerances; ii) ability to construct prototype (e.g., zero power) reactors for adjustment of approximate methodologies. The next generation reactors have to be designed mainly by using novel high-fidelity computational tools that are accurate and fast, and therefore can be used for parametric studies and uncertainty quantification. To sufficiently demonstrate the accuracy of these tools, advanced research reactors are needed. The authors argue the need for new computational paradigms such as the MRT (Multistage, Response- function Transport) methodology which has resulted in the development of the novel high-fidelity RAPID (Real-time Analysis for Particle-transport and In-situ Detection) code system. Such code systems have to be robust in modeling any complex system, and should be fast and accurate, henceforth their uncertainties can be quantified at reasonable costs. Again, advanced research reactors are needed for the validation of the fidelity and accuracy of new computational tools. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Plutonium and Cesium Isotopes in Modeling of BR3 Reactor Spent Fuel

Nuclear forensics has a broad task to characterize recovered nuclear or radiological material and interpret the results of investigation. One approach to isotopic characterization of nuclear material obtained from a reactor is to chemically separate and perform isotopic measurements on the sample and verify the results with modeling of the sample history, for example, operation of a nuclear reactor. The major actinide plutonium and fission product cesium are commonly measured signatures of the fuel history in a reactor core. This study investigates the uncertainty of the plutonium and cesium isotope ratios of a fuel rod discharged from a research pressurized water reactor when the location of the sample is not known a priori. A sensitivity analysis showed overpredicted values for the 240 Pu/ 239 Pu ratio toward the axial center of the rod and revealed a lower probability of the rod of interest (ROI) being on the periphery of the assembly. The uncertainty analysis found the relative errors due to only the rod position and boron concentration to be 17% to 36% and 7% to 15% for the 240 Pu/ 239 Pu and 137 Cs/ 135 Cs ratios, respectively. Lastly, this study provides a method for uncertainty quantification of isotope concentrations due to the location of the ROI. Similar analyses can be performed to verify future chemical and isotopic analyses.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC) for Improved Computational Simulation Credibility

Accurate material characterization and model calibration are pivotal for simulations used for high-consequence engineering decisions. Current characterization and calibration methods (1) use simplified test specimen geometries and global data, (2) cannot guarantee that sufficient characterization data is collected for a specific model of interest, (3) provide only mean parameter values with no uncertainty quantification, and (4) are sequential, inflexible, and time-consuming. This work developed a new paradigm—coined Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC)—which drives forward the state-of-the-art in model calibration by bringing together recent advancements into one improved workflow. The ICC paradigm (1) employs tools to efficiently use full-field data to calibrate high-fidelity material models, (2) aligns the data needed with the data collected by adopting an optimal experimental design protocol, (3) provides uncertainty metrics on the calibrated model parameters, and (4) incorporates these advances into a quasi real-time feedback loop. The ICC framework was validated synthetically with both low-fidelity and high-fidelity simulations paired with several different elastoplastic material models, and was also demonstrated experimentally with an aluminum 6061 cruciform exemplar specimen. Results showed that the ICC framework—in which Bayesian optimal experimental design actively guided the experiment— resulted in calibrations with similar or better accuracy than predetermined experiments based on subject matter expertise. Moreover, the ICC framework produced a complete model calibration— with quantified uncertainties on model parameters—in 1 week, a 5 - 10× increase in efficiency over traditional approaches. Thus, the ICC paradigm improves both the calibration process and quality, by (1) improving efficiency, which increases agility of solid mechanics modeling and enables utilization of computational simulation (CompSim) at earlier stages of the design cycle and (2) providing quantified, and in some cases reduced, parameter uncertainties, which increases confidence in model predictions and supports credible decision making.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental spectrum averaged cross sections (SACS) in 252 Cf(sf) neutron field and its impact on the evaluation of neutron standards

A new evaluation of spectrum averaged cross sections (SACS) of 235 U, 238 U, and 239 Pu measured in the 252 Cf(sf) reference neutron field is presented and found to be consistent with the original Mannhart SACS evaluation in IRDF-2002. The comprehensive vetted experimental database that includes SACS ratio and absolute SACS measurements of major actinides is being used to update the SACS database employed as input of the new GMApy code to derive the Neutron Standards. An update of the current neutron standards based on Time Projection Chamber (TPC) shape data, a new comprehensive uncertainty quantification, and revised SACS experimental database is proposed which result in a 0.7% increase of the evaluated 239 Pu(n,f)/ 235 U(n,f) crosssection ratio in the 1–5 MeV energy region. The increase is due to a 0.3% reduction of the standard 235 U(n,f) cross section and a 0.4% increase of the 239 Pu(n,f) reference cross section in the 1–5 MeV energy region. Those changes are well within estimated USU fission cross-section uncertainties of 1.2%, but are relevant for the evaluated mean values.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Early Career Award: An Enabling Computational Framework for Uncertainty Assimilation and Propagation in Complex PDE Systems: Sparse and Low-rank Techniques (Final Report)

This project aims to develop a set of new theories, algorithms, and computational tools that enable ultra-scalable representation and propagation of high-dimensional uncertainties to circumvent the issue of curse-of-dimensionality. The research components are motivated by the fact that highly scalable algorithms are needed to achieve exascale performance for uncertainty quantification and predictive simulation at extreme scales. Although these developments are generic and applicable to a wide range of high-dimensional, complex, stochastic, partial-differential-equation (PDE) systems, this research effort will focus on predictive simulation of high-energy-density lithium batteries. To create knowledge about the precise failure mechanisms of these batteries and ultimately predict their performance and reliability, a truly data-driven, multi-scale, multi-physics framework is needed that allows studying (i) dominant sources of uncertainty in the governing physical models at all scales of relevance and (ii) the interface between the interchanging physics and scales. The impact of the planned mathematical and numerical advancements in prediction of high-dimensional uncertain systems will be broad across areas of engineering and science such as climate modeling, fusion energy, combustion, and nanoscience, among others.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity and Uncertainty of the IFR-1 BISON Benchmark

The fuel performance code BISON is being used to evaluate metallic fuel for a new fast-spectrum test reactor called the Versatile Test Reactor, which is being considered by the US Department of Energy. To quantify the accuracy of BISON predictions, researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have been developing a series of benchmarks based on legacy metallic fuel experiments. As part of this effort, the sensitivity of BISON predictions to variations in model inputs and the uncertainties associated with BISON predictions must be established. This report summarizes efforts to perform a comprehensive sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) on a benchmark based on the IFR-1 experiment. For the SA, at least one input was chosen from every BISON model and physics module used in the benchmark. The inputs were varied individually in a series of BISON simulations. The resulting variations in benchmark predictions were normalized to calculate sensitivities. The strongest sensitivities were identified and used to inform input selections for the UQ. The UQ was performed using the Monte Carlo UQ method. A literature review was conducted to estimate uncertainty distributions for the selected inputs, and values were sampled randomly from each distribution in a series of BISON simulations. Variations in the benchmark predictions were used to estimate uncertainty distributions and confidence intervals. It was found that nearly 100% of benchmark predictions matched the corresponding legacy values within the confidence intervals. However, this is at least partially because of the wide confidence intervals associated with the benchmark predictions. The uncertainty contributions of assumptions in the benchmark, experimental uncertainties, and BISON models were quantified. Some analysis was performed to identify inputs that contributed to the uncertainties. Finally, recommendations are made for future benchmark development and future BISON development.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty-aware mixed-variable machine learning for materials design

Abstract Data-driven design shows the promise of accelerating materials discovery but is challenging due to the prohibitive cost of searching the vast design space of chemistry, structure, and synthesis methods. Bayesian optimization (BO) employs uncertainty-aware machine learning models to select promising designs to evaluate, hence reducing the cost. However, BO with mixed numerical and categorical variables, which is of particular interest in materials design, has not been well studied. In this work, we survey frequentist and Bayesian approaches to uncertainty quantification of machine learning with mixed variables. We then conduct a systematic comparative study of their performances in BO using a popular representative model from each group, the random forest-based Lolo model (frequentist) and the latent variable Gaussian process model (Bayesian). We examine the efficacy of the two models in the optimization of mathematical functions, as well as properties of structural and functional materials, where we observe performance differences as related to problem dimensionality and complexity. By investigating the machine learning models’ predictive and uncertainty estimation capabilities, we provide interpretations of the observed performance differences. Our results provide practical guidance on choosing between frequentist and Bayesian uncertainty-aware machine learning models for mixed-variable BO in materials design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep-learning-enabled Bayesian inference of fuel magnetization in magnetized liner inertial fusion

Fuel magnetization in magneto-inertial fusion (MIF) experiments improves charged burn product confinement, reducing requirements on fuel areal density and pressure to achieve self-heating. By elongating the path length of 1.01 MeV tritons produced in a pure deuterium fusion plasma, magnetization enhances the probability for deuterium–tritium reactions producing 11.8-17.1 MeV neutrons. Nuclear diagnostics thus enable a sensitive probe of magnetization. Characterization of magnetization, including uncertainty quantification, is crucial for understanding the physics governing target performance in MIF platforms, such as magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) experiments conducted at Sandia National Laboratories, Z-facility. We demonstrate a deep-learned surrogate of a physics-based model of nuclear measurements. A single model evaluation is reduced from O ( 10 – 100 ) (10–100) CPU hours on a high-performance computing cluster down to O ( 10 – 100 ) (10) ms on a laptop. This enables a Bayesian inference of magnetization, rigorously accounting for uncertainties from surrogate modeling and noisy nuclear measurements. The approach is validated by testing on synthetic data and comparing with a previous study. We analyze a series of MagLIF experiments systematically varying preheat, resulting in the first ever systematic experimental study of magnetic confinement properties of the fuel plasma as a function of fundamental inputs on any neutron-producing MIF platform. We demonstrate that magnetization decreases from B R ∼ 0.2 ~0.5 to B R ∼ 0.2 ~0.2 MG cm as laser preheat energy deposited increases from E preheat ∼ 460 ~460 J to E preheat ∼ 460 ~1.4 kJ. This trend is consistent with 2D LASNEX simulations showing Nernst advection of the magnetic field out of the hot fuel and diffusion into the target liner.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

A frequentist approach to computer model calibration

The paper considers the computer model calibration problem and provides a general frequentist solution. Under the framework proposed, the data model is semiparametric with a non-parametric discrepancy function which accounts for any discrepancy between physical reality and the computer model. In an attempt to solve a fundamentally important (but often ignored) identifiability issue between the computer model parameters and the discrepancy function, the paper proposes a new and identifiable parameterization of the calibration problem. It also develops a two-step procedure for estimating all the relevant quantities under the new parameterization. This estimation procedure is shown to enjoy excellent rates of convergence and can be straightforwardly implemented with existing software. For uncertainty quantification, bootstrapping is adopted to construct confidence regions for the quantities of interest. As a result, the practical performance of the methodology is illustrated through simulation examples and an application to a computational fluid dynamics model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model-free estimation of completeness, uncertainties, and outliers in atomistic machine learning using information theory

Abstract An accurate description of information is relevant for a range of problems in atomistic machine learning (ML), such as crafting training sets, performing uncertainty quantification (UQ), or extracting physical insights from large datasets. However, atomistic ML often relies on unsupervised learning or model predictions to analyze information contents from simulation or training data. Here, we introduce a theoretical framework that provides a rigorous, model-free tool to quantify information contents in atomistic simulations. We demonstrate that the information entropy of a distribution of atom-centered environments explains known heuristics in ML potential developments, from training set sizes to dataset optimality. Using this tool, we propose a model-free UQ method that reliably predicts epistemic uncertainty and detects out-of-distribution samples, including rare events in systems such as nucleation. This method provides a general tool for data-driven atomistic modeling and combines efforts in ML, simulations, and physical explainability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Preliminary Results for Using Uncertainty and Out-of-distribution Detection to Identify Unreliable Predictions.

As machine learning (ML) models are deployed into an ever-diversifying set of application spaces, ranging from self-driving cars to cybersecurity to climate modeling, the need to carefully evaluate model credibility becomes increasingly important. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides important information about the ability of a learned model to make sound predictions, often with respect to individual test cases. However, most UQ methods for ML are themselves data-driven and therefore susceptible to the same knowledge gaps as the models themselves. Specifically, UQ helps to identify points near decision boundaries where the models fit the data poorly, yet predictions can score as certain for points that are under-represented by the training data and thus out-of-distribution (OOD). One method for evaluating the quality of both ML models and their associated uncertainty estimates is out-of-distribution detection (OODD). We combine OODD with UQ to provide insights into the reliability of the individual predictions made by an ML model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Meeting Global Health Needs via Infectious Disease Forecasting: Development of a Reliable Data-Driven Framework

Infectious diseases (IDs) have a significant detrimental impact on global health. Timely and accurate ID forecasting can result in more informed implementation of control measures and prevention policies. To meet the operational decision-making needs of real-world circumstances, we aimed to build a standardized, reliable, and trustworthy ID forecasting pipeline and visualization dashboard that is generalizable across a wide range of modeling techniques, IDs, and global locations. We forecasted 6 diverse, zoonotic diseases (brucellosis, campylobacteriosis, Middle East respiratory syndrome, Q fever, tick-borne encephalitis, and tularemia) across 4 continents and 8 countries. We included a wide range of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models (n=9) and trained them on a multitude of features (average n=2326) within the One Health landscape, including demography, landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. The pipeline and dashboard were created in consideration of crucial operational metrics—prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, spatiotemporal generalizability, uncertainty quantification, and interpretability—which are essential to strategic data-driven decisions. While no single best model was suitable for all disease, region, and country combinations, our ensemble technique selects the best-performing model for each given scenario to achieve the closest prediction. For new or emerging diseases in a region, the ensemble model can predict how the disease may behave in the new region using a pretrained model from a similar region with a history of that disease. The data visualization dashboard provides a clean interface of important analytical metrics, such as ID temporal patterns, forecasts, prediction uncertainties, and model feature importance across all geographic locations and disease combinations. As the need for real-time, operational ID forecasting capabilities increases, this standardized and automated platform for data collection, analysis, and reporting is a major step forward in enabling evidence-based public health decisions and policies for the prevention and mitigation of future ID outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Interval Predictor Models for Robust System Identification

This paper proposes a framework for the identification and uncertainty quantification of plant models according to multivariable data. The only restriction imposed upon such models is for their outputs to depend continuously on their parameters. An Interval Predictor Model (IPM) prescribes the parameters of a computational model as a path-connected set thereby making each predicted output an interval-valued function of its inputs. The formulation proposed seeks the parameter set for which the predicted outputs tightly enclose the data. This set, which is modeled as a semi-algebraic set of low-degree polynomials, enables the characterization of possibly strong parameter dependencies commonly found in practice. This uncertainty characterization makes the resulting plant model amenable to robust control approaches using polynomial optimization. Furthermore, we use non-convex scenario theory to assess the reliability of the resulting IPM. This assessment yields a distribution-free upper bound on the probability that future data will fall outside the predicted intervals.

interval↗
DOE OSTI2019

Prediction Uncertainties beyond the Range of Experience: A Case Study in Inertial Confinement Fusion Implosion Experiments

Scientists often predict physical outcomes, e.g., experimental results, with the assistance of computer codes that, at their best, only coarsely approximate reality. Coarse predictions are challenging in critical part due to the multitude of seemingly arbitrary yet consequential decisions that must be made such as choice of relevant data, calibration of code parameters, and construction of empirical discrepancy forms. In this paper, we present a case study in the context of inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosion experiments where extrapolative predictions are needed with quantified uncertainties. The purpose of this case study is to reflect relevant statistical methods, as applied to ICF model fitting and prediction, to document the numerous decisions that must be made in the prediction pipeline, to extend a complex example in extrapolation to the uncertainty quantification (UQ) community, and to reflect on the challenges we encountered supporting extrapolations with imperfect models and thereby recommend several future research directions. We conclude with a discussion about the UQ community's role in less than ideal predictive scenarios like our ICF exercise.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Uncertainty in master-equation-based rate coefficient calculations

Rate coefficients are key quantities in gas phase kinetics and can be determined theoretically via master equation (ME) calculations. Rate coefficients characterize how fast a certain chemical species reacts away due to collisions into a specific product. Some of these collisions are simply transferring energy between the colliding partners, in which case the initial chemical species can undergo a unimolecular reaction: dissociation or isomerization. Other collisions are reactive, and the colliding partners either exchange atoms, these are direct reactions, or form complexes that can themselves react further or get stabilized by deactivating collisions with a bath gas. The input of MEs are molecular parameters: geometries, energies, and frequencies determined from ab initio calculations. While the calculation of these rate coefficients using ab initio data is becoming routine in many cases, the determination of the uncertainties of the rate coefficients are often ignored, sometimes crudely assessed by varying independently just a few of the numerous parameters, and only occasionally studied in detail. In this study, molecular frequencies, barrier heights, well depths, and imaginary frequencies (needed to calculate quantum mechanical tunneling) were automatically perturbed in an uncorrelated fashion. Our Python tool, MEUQ, takes user requests to change all or specified well, barrier, or bimolecular product parameters for a reaction. We propagate the uncertainty in these input parameters and perform global sensitivity analysis in the rate coefficients for the ethyl + O 2 system using state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques via Python interface to UQ Toolkit (www.sandia.gov/uqtoolkit). A total of 10,000 sets of rate coefficients were collected after perturbing 240 molecular parameters. With our methodology, sensitive mechanistic steps can be revealed to a modeler in a straightforward manner for identification of significant and negligible influences in bimolecular reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis: Phase I Summary

The United States Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office released a Funding Opportunity Announcement in 2014 targeting studies to collect data in unexplored or underexplored regions, generate geothermal development favorability maps, and demonstrate methodology to quantify uncertainty. Eleven projects were selected for cooperative agreement awards. After a period of performance of one year, during which only existing data could be evaluated, each awardee presented project results for a competitive Downselect following the completion of Phase I. This paper summarizes and reviews the outcomes of Phase I activities. A comparison of play definition, Risk Factor development, Common Risk Segment Map construction, uncertainty quantification, Favorability Map generation, identification of areas for follow up work, and a preliminary application of the Geothermal Resource Reporting Metric is presented.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Quantified Gamow shell model interaction for p s d -shell nuclei

Background: The structure of weakly bound and unbound nuclei close to particle drip lines is one of the major science drivers of nuclear physics. A comprehensive understanding of these systems goes beyond the traditional configuration interaction approach formulated in the Hilbert space of localized states (nuclear shell model) and requires an open quantum system description. The complex-energy Gamow shell model (GSM) provides such a framework as it is capable of describing resonant and nonresonant many-body states on equal footing. Purpose: To make reliable predictions, quality input is needed that allows for the full uncertainty quantification of theoretical results. In this study, we carry out the optimization of an effective GSM (one-body and two-body) interaction in the psdf-shell-model space. The resulting interaction is expected to describe nuclei with 5 ≤ A ≲ 12 at the p-sd-shell interface. Method: The one-body potential of the 4 He core is modeled by a Woods-Saxon + spin-orbit + Coulomb potential, and the finite-range nucleon-nucleon interaction between the valence nucleons consists of central, spin-orbit, tensor, and Coulomb terms. The GSM is used to compute key fit observables. The χ 2 optimization is performed using the Gauss-Newton algorithm augmented by the singular value decomposition technique. The resulting covariance matrix enables quantification of statistical errors within the linear regression approach. Results: The optimized one-body potential reproduces nucleon- 4 He scattering phase shifts up to an excitation energy of 20 MeV. The two-body interaction built on top of the optimized one-body field is adjusted to the bound and unbound ground-state binding energies and selected excited states of the helium, lithium, and beryllium isotopes up to A = 9 . A very good agreement with experimental results was obtained for binding energies. First applications of the optimized interaction include predictions for two-nucleon correlation densities and excitation spectra of light nuclei with quantified uncertainties. In conclusion: The new interaction will enable comprehensive and fully quantified studies of structure and reactions aspects of nuclei from the psd region of the nuclear chart.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗