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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,639 records · Page 91
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Computational Study of Flow Interactions in Coaxial Rotors

Although the first idea of coaxial rotors appeared more than 150 years ago, most helicopters have used single main-rotor/tail-rotor combination. Since reactive moments of coaxial rotors are canceled by contra-rotation, no tail rotor is required to counter the torque generated by the main rotor. Unlike the single main rotor design that distributes power to both main and tail rotors, all of the power for coaxial rotors is used for vertical thrust. Thus, no power is wasted for anti-torque or directional control. The saved power helps coaxial rotors reach a higher hover ceiling than single rotor helicopters. Another advantage of coaxial rotors is that the overall rotor diameter can be reduced for a given vehicle gross weight because each rotor provides a maximum contribution to vertical thrust to overcome vehicle weight. However, increased mechanical complexity of the hub has been one of the challenges for manufacturing coaxial rotorcraft. Only the Kamov Design Bureau of Russia had been notably successful in production of coaxial helicopters until Sikorsky built X2, an experimental compound helicopter. Recent developments in unmanned aircraft systems and high-speed rotorcraft have renewed interest in the coaxial configuration. Multi-rotors are frequently used for small electric unmanned rotorcraft partly due to mechanical simplicity. The use of multiple motors provides redundancy as well as cost-efficiency. The multi-rotor concept has rarely been used until recently because of its inherent stability and control problems. However, advances in inexpensive electronic flight control systems have opened the floodgates for small drones using multirotors. Coaxial rotors have started to appear in some multi-rotor configurations. Small coaxial rotors have often been designed using a hundred year old approach that is "sketch, build, fly, and iterate." In that approach, there is no systematic way to explore trade-offs or determine logical next steps. It is neither possible to account for multiple real-world constraints up front in design nor possible to know what performance is possible with a given design. Since unmanned vehicles are sized and optimized for the particular mission, a modern low-fidelity conceptual design and sizing tool that has been used for the design of large helicopters can be used for design of small coaxial rotorcraft. However, unlike most helicopters with single main rotor, the interactions between the upper and lower rotors emerge as an important factor to consider in design because an increase in performance of a multi-rotor system is not proportional to the number of rotors. Interference losses and differences in thrusts between the upper and lower rotors were investigated by theoretical methods as well as a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method using the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations. In this work, hybrid turbulence models are used to investigate the physics of interactions between coaxial rotors and a fuselage that are not well understood. Present study covers not only small-scale drones but also large-scale coaxial rotors for heavy-lifting missions. Considering the recently proposed FAA drone rules that require the flight only in visual line-of-sight, a large multirotor might be used as an airborne carrier for launch and recovery of unmanned aircraft systems with a human operator onboard. For applications to civil operations, their aerodynamic performance and noise levels need to be assessed. Noise is one of the largest limiting factors to rotorcraft operations in urban area. Since the high-frequency noise of multi-rotors may increase the annoyance, noise may turn out to be a key issue that must be addressed for market acceptability. One of the objectives of the present work is to study the effects of inter-rotor spacing and collectives on the performance, efficiency, and acoustics of coaxial rotor systems.

Study↗
DOE OSTI2021

An analysis of Bayesian estimates for missing higher orders in perturbative calculations

With current high precision collider data, the reliable estimation of theoretical uncertainties due to missing higher orders (MHOs) in perturbation theory has become a pressing issue for collider phenomenology. Traditionally, the size of the MHOs is estimated through scale variation, a simple but ad hoc method without probabilistic interpretation. Bayesian approaches provide a compelling alternative to estimate the size of the MHOs, but it is not clear how to interpret the perturbative scales, like the factorisation and renormalisation scales, in a Bayesian framework. Recently, it was proposed that the scales can be incorporated as hidden parameters into a Bayesian model. In this paper, we thoroughly scrutinise Bayesian approaches to MHO estimation and systematically study the performance of different models on an extensive set of high-order calculations. We extend the framework in two significant ways. First, we define a new model that allows for asymmetric probability distributions. Second, we introduce a prescription to incorporate information on perturbative scales without interpreting them as hidden model parameters. We clarify how the two scale prescriptions bias the result towards specific scale choice, and we discuss and compare different Bayesian MHO estimates among themselves and to the traditional scale variation approach. Finally, we provide a practical prescription of how existing perturbative results at the standard scale variation points can be converted to 68%/95% credibility intervals in the Bayesian approach using the new public code MiHO.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

District-Scale Analysis of Electricity Load and Strategies to Improve Energy Reliability Using Prototype District Models

Projected increases in electricity demand in the U.S. highlight the urgent need for effective load management to ensure grid reliability. As the building sector accounts for approximately 75% of electricity usage, enhancing energy efficiency and flexibility in this sector is crucial. Adopting district-level approaches offers significant advantages over traditional individual building analyses by enabling shared infrastructure and economies of scale. To navigate the data and computational challenges associated with modeling energy at the district level, prototype district models have been proposed as holistic, system-level solutions that capture complex interactions within typical configurations. This study presents these models as a reference tool for analyzing district-scale energy systems across various climate zones in the U.S. Developed with input from stakeholders, these models integrate varied building characteristics, inter-building connections, and energy system interactions. A case study utilizing the Urban Edge prototype district model, implemented on the URBANopt™ platform, evaluates multiple demand scenarios and the impact of distributed energy resources such as fuel-fired backup generators, photovoltaic systems, and batteries. Findings suggest that while new electric systems can significantly reduce annual energy use, they may also elevate peak electricity loads, with a notable 43% increase in heating-dominant climate zone 5B. The optimal backup power solutions vary based on location, influenced by factors such as utility rates and incentives. For example, PV and batteries perform well in high-cost regions like New York City, while diesel backup generators are more suitable for backup needs in climate zone 3A, such as Atlanta. Thus, this research highlights the importance of prototype district models for future district-scale energy planning.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Semi-supervised Machine Learning Enables the Robust Detection of Multireference Character at Low Cost

Multireference (MR) diagnostics are common tools for identifying strongly correlated electronic structure that makes single-reference (SR) methods (e.g., density functional theory or DFT) insufficient for accurate property prediction. However, MR diagnostics typically require computationally demanding correlated wave function theory (WFT) calculations, and diagnostics often disagree or fail to predict MR effects on properties. To overcome these challenges, we introduce a semi-supervised machine learning (ML) approach with virtual adversarial training (VAT) of an MR classifier using 15 WFT and DFT MR diagnostics as inputs. In semi-supervised learning, only the most extreme SR or MR points are labeled, and the remaining point labels are learned. The resulting VAT model outperforms the alternatives, as quantified by the distinct property distributions of SR- and MR-classified molecules. Additionally, to reduce the cost of generating inputs to the VAT model, we leverage the VAT model’s robustness to noisy inputs by replacing WFT MR diagnostics with regression predictions in an MR decision engine workflow that preserves excellent performance. We demonstrate the transferability of our approach to larger molecules and those with distinct chemical composition from the training set. This MR decision engine demonstrates promise as a low-cost, high-accuracy approach to the automatic detection of strong correlation for predictive high-throughput screening.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-Q cavity interface for color centers in thin film diamond

Quantum information technology offers the potential to realize unprecedented computational resources via secure channels distributing entanglement between quantum computers. Diamond, as a host to optically-accessible spin qubits, is a leading platform to realize quantum memory nodes needed to extend such quantum links. Photonic crystal (PhC) cavities enhance light-matter interaction and are essential for an efficient interface between spins and photons that are used to store and communicate quantum information respectively. Here, we demonstrate one- and two-dimensional PhC cavities fabricated in thin-film diamonds, featuring quality factors (Q) of 1.8 × 10 5 and 1.6 × 10 5 , respectively, the highest Qs for visible PhC cavities realized in any material. Importantly, our fabrication process is simple and high-yield, based on conventional planar fabrication techniques, in contrast to the previous with complex undercut processes. We also demonstrate fiber-coupled 1D PhC cavities with high photon extraction efficiency, and optical coupling between a single SiV center and such a cavity at 4 K achieving a Purcell factor of 18. The demonstrated photonic platform may fundamentally improve the performance and scalability of quantum nodes and expedite the development of related technologies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Collaborative: in situ visual analytics technologies for extreme scale combustion simulations

This project aims to drastically enhance the usability of in situ analysis and visualization for extreme-scale scientific simulations. Current exascale computing capabilities promise to offer greater predictive ability of simulations and to further push the frontiers of science and technology. However, to validate the simulation output at extreme scale, examine the modeled phenomena, and discover previously unknowns from the output data, the output must be reduced or transformed in situ as it is being generated during the simulation such that the amount of data to examine and store is kept to a minimum. Such in situ approaches allow us to process and analyze the data and any embedded geometry to an extent that would be prohibitively expensive, if not impossible, to perform as a post hoc task. While in situ processing has been demonstrated to be a feasible and promising approach, its full potential has not yet been leveraged. In this project, we have developed comprehensive enhancements to in situ technology based on probability distributions in data. Our research focuses on jointly developing new ways of interacting with massive statistical samples while creatively utilizing new state-of-the-art computational resources to push the boundaries of in situ exploration. Moreover, we have developed new time-dependent techniques to enable previously unattainable capabilities in areas such as intelligent simulation steering and precise feature identification. We have experimentally studied our design and implementation at NERSC and OLCF, and are able to leverage existing in situ infrastructures whenever possible. While the exemplar in this project is combustion, many other fields for which turbulent transport is important, e.g., fusion, climate, astrophysics among others, encounter similar issues as simulations scale up to the exascale. This project shows its potential to generate high impact on DOE missions since the resulting technology promises to improve scientists’ ability to rapidly and correctly interpret and tune extreme-scale simulations, leading to new scientific understanding and advancements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2010

Computer-Controlled Cylindrical Polishing Process for Large X-Ray Mirror Mandrels

We are developing high-energy grazing incidence shell optics for hard-x-ray telescopes. The resolution of a mirror shells depends on the quality of cylindrical mandrel from which they are being replicated. Mid-spatial-frequency axial figure error is a dominant contributor in the error budget of the mandrel. This paper presents our efforts to develop a deterministic cylindrical polishing process in order to keep the mid-spatial-frequency axial figure errors to a minimum. Simulation software is developed to model the residual surface figure errors of a mandrel due to the polishing process parameters and the tools used, as well as to compute the optical performance of the optics. The study carried out using the developed software was focused on establishing a relationship between the polishing process parameters and the mid-spatial-frequency error generation. The process parameters modeled are the speeds of the lap and the mandrel, the tool s influence function, the contour path (dwell) of the tools, their shape and the distribution of the tools on the polishing lap. Using the inputs from the mathematical model, a mandrel having conical approximated Wolter-1 geometry, has been polished on a newly developed computer-controlled cylindrical polishing machine. The preliminary results of a series of polishing experiments demonstrate a qualitative agreement with the developed model. We report our first experimental results and discuss plans for further improvements in the polishing process. The ability to simulate the polishing process is critical to optimize the polishing process, improve the mandrel quality and significantly reduce the cost of mandrel production

Khan, Gufran S.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Computational design and performance prediction of creep-resistant ferritic superalloys

Ferritic superalloys containing the B2 phase with the parent L21 phase precipitates in a disordered solid-solution matrix, also known as a hierarchical-precipitate-strengthened ferritic alloy (HPSFA), had been developed for high-temperature structural applications in fossil-energy power plants. These alloys were designed by adding Ti into a previously-studied NiAl-strengthened ferritic alloy (denoted as FBB8 in this study). Following with the concept of HPSFAs, in the present research, a systematic investigation on adding other elements, such as Hf and Zr, and optimizing the Ti content within the alloy system, has been conducted, in order to further improve the creep resistance of the model alloys. Studies include advanced experimental techniques, first-principles calculations on thermodynamic and mechanical properties, and numerical simulations on precipitation hardening, have been integrated and conducted to characterize the complex microstructures and excellent creep resistance of alloys. The experimental techniques include transmission-electron microscopy (TEM), scanning-electron microscopy (SEM), neutron diffraction (ND), and atom-probe tomography (APT), which provide the detailed microstructural information of the model alloys. Systematic tension/compression creep tests have also been conducted in order to verify the creep resistance of the potential alloy compositions. The results show that when replacing Ti with Hf and Zr, it does not form the L21 phase. Instead, the hexagonal Laves phase forms and distributes majorly along the grain boundary, or large segregation within grains. Since the Laves phase does not form parent to the B2-phase precipitates, it cannot bring the strengthening effect of HPSFAs. As a result, the FBB8 + 2 wt. % Hf and FBB8 + 2 wt. % Zr alloys have similar mechanical properties to the original FBB8. The FBB8 + Ti series alloys had also been studied, from the creep tests and microstructural characterizations, the FBB8 + 3.5 wt.% Ti possesses the greatest creep resistance, with the L21/B2 phase ratio of 4 (80% of the precipitates is the L21 phase, and 20% is the B2 phase). First-principles calculations include thermodynamics, elastic properties, and interfacial properties, which have been conducted for the understanding of the thermodynamic and mechanical properties of HPSFAs. In addition to the systematic experimental approach and first-principles calculations, a series of numerical tools and algorithms, which assist in the optimization of creep properties of ferritic superalloys, are utilized and developed. These numerical simulation results are compared with the available experimental data and previous first-principles calculations, providing the deep insight of creep mechanisms of the creep-resistant ferritic superalloys. To conclude the present research, we’ve found that (1) only FBB8 + Ti alloys have the potential of forming HPSFA, and FBB8 + Hf and FBB8 + Zr do not work. Therefore, only FBB8 + Ti alloys have desirable creep resistance, (2) the optimum composition for the FBB8 + Ti alloys is FBB8 + 3.5% Ti, which has the greatest creep resistance (218.8 MPa as the threshold stress at 700 oC), (3) first-principle calculations obtained results that could not be obtained in experiments, which are relevant to develop ferritic superalloys with the improved creep resistance, and (4) two-dimensional dislocation-dynamics simulations investigate effects of factors like precipitate volume fractions and precipitate radii in the alloy systems, which helps in developing the most desirable microstructure with greatest strengthening.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS1998

Simulation of Conformal Spiral Slot Antennas on Composite Platforms

During the course of the grant, we wrote and distributed about 12 reports and an equal number of journal papers supported fully or in part by this grant. The list of reports (title & abstract) and papers are given in Appendices A and B. This grant has indeed been instrumental in developing a robust hybrid finite element method for the analysis of complex broadband antennas on doubly curved platforms. Previous to the grant, our capability was limited to simple printed patch antennas on mostly planar platforms. More specifically: (1) mixed element formulations were developed and new edge-based prisms were introduced; (2) these elements were important in permitting flexibility in geometry gridding for most antennas of interest; (3) new perfectly matched absorbers were introduced for mesh truncations associated with highly curved surfaces; (4) fast integral algorithms were introduced for boundary integral truncations reducing CPU time from O(N-2) down to O(N-1.5) or less; (5) frequency extrapolation schemes were developed for efficient broadband performance evaluations. This activity has been successfully continued by NASA researchers; (6) computer codes were developed and extensively tested for several broadband configurations. These include FEMA-CYL, FEMA-PRISM and FEMA-TETRA written by L. Kempel, T. Ozdemir and J. Gong, respectively; (7) a new infinite balun feed was designed nearly constant impedance over the 800-3000 MHz operational band; (8) a complete slot spiral antenna was developed, fabricated and tested at NASA Langley. This new design is a culmination of the projects goals and integrates the computational and experimental efforts. this antenna design resulted in a U.S. patent and was revised three times to achieve the desired bandwidth and gain requirements from 800-3000 MHz.

Volakis, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Utilization of Internet Protocol-Based Voice Systems in Remote Payload Operations

Due to limited crew availability to support science and the large number of experiments to be operated simultaneously, telescience is key to a successful International Space Station (ISS) science program. Crew, operations personnel at NASA centers, and researchers at universities and companies around the world must work closely together to per orm scientific experiments on-board ISS. The deployment of reliable high-speed Internet Protocol (IP)-based networks promises to greatly enhance telescience capabilities. These networks are now being used to cost-effectively extend the reach of remote mission support systems. They reduce the need for dedicated leased lines and travel while improving distributed workgroup collaboration capabilities. NASA has initiated use of Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) to supplement the existing mission voice communications system used by researchers at their remote sites. The Internet Voice Distribution System (IVoDS) connects remote researchers to mission support "loopsll or conferences via NASA networks and Internet 2. Researchers use NODS software on personal computers to talk with operations personnel at NASA centers. IVoDS also has the ;capability, if authorized, to allow researchers to communicate with the ISS crew during experiment operations. NODS was developed by Marshall Space Flight Center with contractors & Technology, First Virtual Communications, Lockheed-Martin, and VoIP Group. NODS is currently undergoing field-testing with full deployment for up to 50 simultaneous users expected in 2002. Research is being performed in parallel with IVoDS deployment for a next-generation system to qualitatively enhance communications among ISS operations personnel. In addition to the current voice capability, video and data/application-sharing capabilities are being investigated. IVoDS technology is also being considered for mission support systems for programs such as Space Launch Initiative and Homeland Defense.

Chamberlain, jim↗
NASA NTRS2004

A New Approach to Using a Cloud-Resolving Model to Study the Interactions between Clouds, Precipitation and Aerosols

Recently Grabowski and Khairoutdinov and Randall have proposed and demonstrated, the feasibility of using 2D CRMs (these did not include detailed land processes and used periodic lateral boundary conditions) as 'super-parameterizations or a multi-scale modeling framework MMF' for cloud processes within atmospheric generation circulation models (GCMs). In the MMF, a fine-resolution 2D CRM takes the place of the single-column parameterization that is used in conventional GCMs. An overview of this approach is given by Randall et al.. Since a CRM can explicitly simulate cloud processes at the natural space and time scales of clouddynamical processes, it's possible to compute statistics of cloud fields, including radiances and radar backscatters, directly simulated/produced by the CRM. A seed fund is available at NASA Goddard to build a MMF based on a 2D GCE model and the Goddard fvGCM. A prototype MMF will be developed at end of 2004. The major objectives are to test and evaluate its performance using the GCE model as the super parameterization and compare its results with other super parameterizations, conventional GCMs and observations. Recently, a detailed spectral-bin microphysical scheme was implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (WE) model. The GCE model is a CRM and it has been improved and applied to study the precipitation processes in the past two decades. Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep tropical clouds in the west Pacific warm pool region and summertime convection over a mid-latitude continent with different concentrations of CCN: a low 'clean' concentration and a high 'dirty' concentration. The impact of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud and precipitation will be investigated. In addition, the similarities and differences between bulk- and spectral-bin microphysics will be presented,

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2013

NASA Tech Briefs, October 2013

Topics include: A Short-Range Distance Sensor with Exceptional Linearity; Miniature Trace Gas Detector Based on Microfabricated Optical Resonators; Commercial Non-Dispersive Infrared Spectroscopy Sensors for Sub-Ambient Carbon Dioxide Detection; Fast, Large-Area, Wide-Bandgap UV Photodetector for Cherenkov Light Detection; Mission Data System Java Edition Version 7; Adaptive Distributed Environment for Procedure Training (ADEPT); LEGEND, a LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris Model; Electronics/Computers; Millimeter-Wave Localizers for Aircraft-to-Aircraft Approach Navigation; Impedance Discontinuity Reduction Between High-Speed Differential Connectors and PCB Interfaces; SpaceCube Version 1.5; High-Pressure Lightweight Thrusters; Non-Magnetic, Tough, Corrosion- and Wear-Resistant Knives From Bulk Metallic Glasses and Composites; Ambient Dried Aerogels; Applications for Gradient Metal Alloys Fabricated Using Additive Manufacturing; Passivation of Flexible YBCO Superconducting Current Lead With Amorphous SiO2 Layer; Propellant-Flow-Actuated Rocket Engine Igniter; Lightweight Liquid Helium Dewar for High-Altitude Balloon Payloads; Method to Increase Performance of Foil Bearings Through Passive Thermal Management; Unibody Composite Pressurized Structure; JWST Integrated Science Instrument Module Alignment Optimization Tool; Radar Range Sidelobe Reduction Using Adaptive Pulse Compression Technique; Digitally Calibrated TR Modules Enabling Real-Time Beamforming SweepSAR Architectures; Electro-Optic Time-to-Space Converter for Optical Detector Jitter Mitigation; Partially Transparent Petaled Mask/Occulter for Visible-Range Spectrum; Educational NASA Computational and Scientific Studies (enCOMPASS); Coarse-Grain Bandwidth Estimation Scheme for Large-Scale Network; Detection of Moving Targets Using Soliton Resonance Effect; High-Efficiency Nested Hall Thrusters for Robotic Solar System Exploration; High-Voltage Clock Driver for Photon-Counting CCD Characterization; Development of the Code RITRACKS; and Enabling Microliquid Chromatography by Microbead Packing of Microchannels.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2021

Staged OMB for Modular Gasifier/Burner

The goal of this final project report is to comprehensively summarize the work conducted on project DE-FE0031506. In accordance with the Statement of Project Objectives (SOPO), the University of Kentucky Center for Applied Energy Research (UK CAER) (Recipient) has developed a staged opposed multi-burner (OMB) gasifier, scaled down from a commercial gasification technology to utilize coal slurry as feed for the high-temperature gasification. The project involved the design, fabrication, commissioning, parametric testing, and performance validation of the entrained gasifier with multiple burners to narrow the major near-term technical gaps that impede the application of small-size gasification by modularizing the system. Project results verified the UK CAER approach to address the major technical challenges on the gasification modularization for a distributed application at a small scale of 1-5 MWe, while maintaining advantages in cost and flexibility, which include: 1) a cost-effective burner configuration to provide high flexibility in both load and fuel feed; 2) the modularized staged-OMB to provide better gasification performance such as a desired temperature profile, better fuel conversion, better gasification efficiency, and long lifetimes of the refractory wall and burners; and 3) load control simply through changing the number of burners firing. UK CAER’s staged gasifier configuration, fuel blend performance, and economic evaluation shows promise, as summarized in this report, as an effective means for improved gasification efficiency with reduced operation cost and process complexity.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
NASA NTRS2012

Constraints on the Profiles of Total Water PDF in AGCMs from AIRS and a High-Resolution Model

Atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) cloud parameterizations generally include an assumption about the subgrid-scale probability distribution function (PDF) of total water and its vertical profile. In the present study, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) monthly-mean cloud amount and relative humidity fields are used to compute a proxy for the second moment of an AGCM total water PDF called the RH01 diagnostic, which is the AIRS mean relative humidity for cloud fractions of 0.1 or less. The dependence of the second moment on horizontal grid resolution is analyzed using results from a high-resolution global model simulation.The AIRS-derived RH01 diagnostic is generally larger near the surface than aloft, indicating a narrower PDF near the surface, and varies with the type of underlying surface. High-resolution model results show that the vertical structure of profiles of the AGCM PDF second moment is unchanged as the grid resolution changes from 200 to 100 to 50 km, and that the second-moment profiles shift toward higher values with decreasing grid spacing.Several Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5), AGCM simulations were performed with several choices for the profile of the PDF second moment. The resulting cloud and relative humidity fields were shown to be quite sensitive to the prescribed profile, and the use of a profile based on the AIRS-derived proxy results in improvements relative to observational estimates. The AIRS-guided total water PDF profiles, including their dependence on underlying surface type and on horizontal resolution, have been implemented in the version of the GEOS-5 AGCM used for publicly released simulations.

Molod, Andrea↗
DOE OSTI2017

Constructing probabilistic scenarios for wide-area solar power generation

Optimizing thermal generation commitments and dispatch in the presence of high penetrations of renewable resources such as solar energy requires a characterization of their stochastic properties. In this study, we describe novel methods designed to create day-ahead, wide-area probabilistic solar power scenarios based only on historical forecasts and associated observations of solar power production. Each scenario represents a possible trajectory for solar power in next-day operations with an associated probability computed by algorithms that use historical forecast errors. Scenarios are created by segmentation of historic data, fitting non-parametric error distributions using epi-splines, and then computing specific quantiles from these distributions. Additionally, we address the challenge of establishing an upper bound on solar power output. Our specific application driver is for use in stochastic variants of core power systems operations optimization problems, e.g., unit commitment and economic dispatch. These problems require as input a range of possible future realizations of renewables production. However, the utility of such probabilistic scenarios extends to other contexts, e.g., operator and trader situational awareness. Finally, we compare the performance of our approach to a recently proposed method based on quantile regression, and demonstrate that our method performs comparably to this approach in terms of two widely used methods for assessing the quality of probabilistic scenarios: the Energy score and the Variogram score.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-335: Dosimetric Investigation of An Advanced Rotating Gamma Ray System for Imaged Guided Radiation Therapy

Purpose: Co-60 beams have unique dosimetric properties for cranial treatments and thoracic cancers. The conventional concern about the high surface dose is overcome by modern system designs with rotational treatment techniques. This work investigates a novel rotational Gamma ray system for image-guided, external beam radiotherapy. Methods: The CybeRT system (Cyber Medical Corp., China) consists of a ring gantry with either one or two treatment heads containing a Gamma source and a multileaf collimator (MLC). The MLC has 60 paired leaves, and the maximum field size is either 40cmx40cm (40 pairs of 0.5cm central leaves, 20 pairs of 1cm outer leaves), or 22cmx40cm (32 pairs of 0.25cm central leaves, 28 pairs of 0.5cm outer leaves). The treatment head(s) can swing 35° superiorly and 8° inferiorly, allowing a total of 43° non-coplanar beam incident. The treatment couch provides 6-degrees-of-freedom motion compensation and the kV cone-beam CT system has a spatial resolution of 0.4mm. Monte Carlo simulations were used to compute dose distributions and compare with measurements. A retrospective study of 98 previously treated patients was performed to compare CybeRT with existing RT systems. Results: Monte Carlo results confirmed the CybeRT design parameters including output factors and 3D dose distributions. Its beam penumbra/dose gradient was similar to or better than that of 6MV photon beams and its isocenter accuracy is 0.3mm. Co-60 beams produce lower-energy secondary electrons that exhibit better dose properties in low-density lung tissues. Because of their rapid depth dose falloff, Co-60 beams are favorable for peripheral lung tumors with half-arc arrangements to spare the opposite lung and critical structures. Superior dose distributions were obtained for head and neck, breast, spine and lung tumors. Conclusion: Because of its accurate dose delivery and unique dosimetric properties of C-60 sources, CybeRT is ideally suited for advanced SBRT as well as conventional RT. This work was partially supported by Cyber Medical Corp.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

A cloud computing approach to massively-parallel distributed stochastic optimization with application to geomechanical reservoir characterization

Many search strategies used to optimize parameters during hydrologic model calibration are inherently limited in that simulations must be performed sequentially in order for the algorithm to converge. As a result, the overall time required to reach a solution increases linearly with the number of steps necessary. In contrast, sampling strategies that attempt to approximate the posterior distribution of the parameters do not require the model simulations to be run in sequence and therefore invite the use of a massively parallel approach across heterogeneous computing environments. We apply a cloud computing methodology to this problem where a head node running on Amazon Web Services continuously produces candidate models that are distributed to arbitrary compute environments to run the simulation, in our case Clemson’s Palmetto cluster computer. Thus the time required to obtain a sufficient number of samples to produce an adequate approximation of the posterior distribution of the parameters is limited by the number of available compute sites. Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior space would be duplicative and inefficient, thus we combine Latin hypercube methods with genetic algorithms to ensure that no large regions of the parameter space are left unexplored, and that high probability regions are investigated thoroughly. We independently assess the fit to different types of data sets without the need to construct a single objective function. Sets of Pareto optimal models are particularly valuable when the quality and information content of data is poorly known or conceptual model errors exist in our simulation. We illustrate our approach for a problem where in situ strain data are used to calibrate the parameters of an oil reservoir in the Avant oil field in Oklahoma. We use well injection and shut-in to stress a deep (500m) confined formation, and observe the geomechanical response using borehole strainmeters installed in the shallow subsurface (30m). These data were then used to calibrate the poroelastic properties of the reservoir and caprock along with the geometry of an elliptic channel associated with the formation. Using our approach we are able to identify issues with model error as well as substantial tradeoffs that occur within the parameters.

inversion, stochastic, geomechanics, poroelastic, ↗
DOE OSTI2018

MORPHODYNAMIC MODELING OF FLOW AND SEDIMENT TRANSPORT OVER LOW-HEAD, RUN-OF-RIVER DAMS

Low-head or Run-of-River (RoR) dams exist on all types of rivers throughout the United States, yet the exact mechanisms of how sediment moves around the structures have not been well researched. Due to the increasing use of RoR dams in small hydroelectric projects, there is a need to better understand the controlling factors of how sediment passes over these dams. A one-dimensional morphodynamic model was developed to investigate the effects of RoR dams on channel morphology over long time scales. The model solves the gradually varied flow equations to compute the flow field in the vicinity of the dam, computes grain-size-specific sediment transport rates, and uses sediment mass conservation and vertical storage bookkeeping to calculate the evolution of bed elevation, the bed surface grain-size distribution, and the vertical pattern of stratigraphy. The model’s hydraulic calculations were calibrated using data collected from a series of flume experiments performed with a model RoR dam to better capture the non-hydrostatic flow over a dam. Numerical experiments designed to investigate how the grain-size distribution of the sediment supply rate, flow rate (steady and unsteady), and dam height act as controls on sediment passage over RoR dams were conducted using parameters reported in the literature for a RoR dam in northern Delaware.These one-dimensional simulations were complemented with a few simulations using, a two-dimensional morphodynamic model, Nays2DH. The 1D simulation results show that the stored sediment upstream of RoR dams does depend on the sediment supply, dam height, grain-size and flow discharge. Once sedimentation in the reservoir has reached equilibrium, high flow events will reduce or scour the sediment while lower flows will typically increase the amount of sediment behind the dam. Finally, a dam that stores more sediment will have greater downstream effects in terms of changes to grain-sizes and bed elevation due to the increased time it ii takes to pass sediment over the dam and reach an equilibrium condition on the upstream side of the dam.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗