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At least 1,639 records · Page 91
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

Space Flyable Hg(sup +) Frequency Standards

We discuss a design for a space based atomic frequency standard (AFS) based on Hg(sup +) ions confined in a linear ion trap. This newly developed AFS should be well suited for space borne applications because it can supply the ultra-high stability of a H-maser but its total mass is comparable to that of a NAVSTAR/GPS cesium clock, i.e., about 11kg. This paper will compare the proposed Hg(sup +) AFS to the present day GPS cesium standards to arrive at the 11 kg mass estimate. The proposed space borne Hg(sup +) standard is based upon the recently developed extended linear ion trap architecture which has reduced the size of existing trapped Hg(sup +) standards to a physics package which is comparable in size to a cesium beam tube. The demonstrated frequency stability to below 10(sup -15) of existing Hg(sup +) standards should be maintained or even improved upon in this new architecture. This clock would deliver far more frequency stability per kilogram than any current day space qualified standard.

clocks cesium atomic frequency standard Hg ions li↗
DOE OSTI2013

Impacts of generalized uncertainty principle on black hole thermodynamics and Salecker-Wigner inequalities

We investigate the impacts of Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP) proposed by some approaches to quantum gravity such as String Theory and Doubly Special Relativity on black hole thermodynamics and Salecker-Wigner inequalities. Utilizing Heisenberg uncertainty principle, the Hawking temperature, Bekenstein entropy, specific heat, emission rate and decay time are calculated. As the evaporation entirely eats up the black hole mass, the specific heat vanishes and the temperature approaches infinity with an infinite radiation rate. It is found that the GUP approach prevents the black hole from the entire evaporation. It implies the existence of remnants at which the specific heat vanishes. The same role is played by the Heisenberg uncertainty principle in constructing the hydrogen atom. We discuss how the linear GUP approach solves the entire-evaporation-problem. Furthermore, the black hole lifetime can be estimated using another approach; the Salecker-Wigner inequalities. Assuming that the quantum position uncertainty is limited to the minimum wavelength of measuring signal, Wigner second inequality can be obtained. If the spread of quantum clock is limited to some minimum value, then the modified black hole lifetime can be deduced. Based on linear GUP approach, the resulting lifetime difference depends on black hole relative mass and the difference between black hole mass with and without GUP is not negligible.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Shielding Considerations for CubeSat Structures During Solar Maximum

The purpose of this lessons learned paper is to communicate the utility of shielding in small spacecraft planning for the support of mission assurance and reliability. Numerous SmallSats have been flying in polar low Earth orbit for science, communications, technology demonstrations, and imaging with academic, commercial, and government interests. Shielding has been part of mission assurance and reliability from the advent of long duration spacecraft missions. The Shields-1 CubeSat has been operating in polar low Earth orbit since 16 December 2018 with atomic number (Z)-grade radiation shielding and demonstrates shielding effectiveness. Shields-1 has collected a representative example of solar minimum data in 2019 with eight Teledyne µDosimeters over varying shielding effectivenesses. It serves as current experimental data and has been compared with NOVICE Shielding estimates using the AP8 – AE8 trapped radiation model with the Shields-1 CAD and generic CubeSat three unit (3U) models. Using NOVICE model radiation analysis coding, the shielding effectivenesses, based on a generic CubeSat 3U structure with four electronic boards, were estimated for aluminum wall thicknesses ranging from 0.204 cm to 4.44 cm (0.550 g/cm 2 to 12.0 g/cm 2 ). For modeled polar orbiting spacecraft, solar maximum total ionizing dose (TID) increases by nearly a magnitude for thin-walled aluminum 0.550-g/cm 2 - 0.686-g/cm 2 (0.204-cm – 0.254-cm) typical CubeSat structures. The shielding effectiveness estimated by NOVICE Sigma, which is a shielding sphere approximation around a detector, showed a linear relationship with wall thickness, which increased over the wall thickness by a ratio of 1.43 determined by linear regression analysis. Using NOVICE Adjoint Monte-Carlo Modeling of solar minimum and solar maximum with the inclusion of a worst-case solar particle event over a one-year mission without geomagnetic shielding, the TID for minimum and maximum conditions for a generic 3U with a wall thickness of 0.254 cm is 158 RAD and 1540 RAD, respectively. The modeled total solar maximum TID is over estimated, because at low orbital latitudes a spacecraft will have shielding from the Earth’s magnetic field. However, TID will still be significant at high latitudes over the poles, where a spacecraft is exposed in a solar particle event. In contrast to a thin-walled generic 3U CubeSat, the Shields-1 electronics enclosure has a shielding effectiveness of 21.3 g/cm 2 from NOVICE Sigma modeling and is expected to show reduced total ionizing dose increases during the present active Solar Cycle 25 period. Because solar particle events during solar maximum increase TID on electronic parts with thin-walled shielding in short periods of time, it is a mission assurance and reliability consideration on the mission value of the spacecraft versus adding shielding for risk reduction of premature spacecraft or instrument payload loss. Since the volumes of many instruments and system electronics have reduced with small spacecraft, shielding material costs and weight penalties have diminished. A small spacecraft project budget and schedule may limit traditional radiation-hardened part use and radiation testing requirements, where shielding can contribute to mission assurance and reliability with reduced costs.

Shields-1↗
NASA NTRS2007

Space Radiation Cancer Risks

Space radiation presents major challenges to astronauts on the International Space Station and for future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Methods used to project risks on Earth need to be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting cancer risks from space radiation, and thus impact safety factors. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts: The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in the radiation cancer projection model. NASA s acceptable level of risk for ISS and their new lunar program have been set at the point-estimate of a 3-percent risk of exposure induced death (REID). Tissue-averaged organ dose-equivalents are combined with age at exposure and gender-dependent risk coefficients to project the cumulative occupational radiation risks incurred by astronauts. The 95% CL criteria in practice is a stronger criterion than ALARA, but not an absolute cut-off as is applied to a point projection of a 3% REID. We describe the most recent astronaut dose limits, and present a historical review of astronaut organ doses estimates from the Mercury through the current ISS program, and future projections for lunar and Mars missions. NASA s 95% CL criteria is linked to a vibrant ground based radiobiology program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and heavy ions. The near-term goal of research is new knowledge leading to the reduction of uncertainties in projection models. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. The current model for projecting space radiation cancer risk relies on the three assumptions of linearity, additivity, and scaling along with the use of population averages. We describe uncertainty estimates for this model, and new experimental data that sheds light on the accuracy of the underlying assumptions. These methods make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including lunar station, deep space outpost, and a Mars mission. Factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties and application of this approach to assess candidate mitigation approaches are described.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A mixed, unified forward/inverse framework for earthquake problems: fault implementation and coseismic slip estimate

SUMMARY We introduce a new finite-element (FE) based computational framework to solve forward and inverse elastic deformation problems for earthquake faulting via the adjoint method. Based on two advanced computational libraries, FEniCS and hIPPYlib for the forward and inverse problems, respectively, this framework is flexible, transparent and easily extensible. We represent a fault discontinuity through a mixed FE elasticity formulation, which approximates the stress with higher order accuracy and exposes the prescribed slip explicitly in the variational form without using conventional split node and decomposition discrete approaches. This also allows the first order optimality condition, that is the vanishing of the gradient, to be expressed in continuous form, which leads to consistent discretizations of all field variables, including the slip. We show comparisons with the standard, pure displacement formulation and a model containing an in-plane mode II crack, whose slip is prescribed via the split node technique. We demonstrate the potential of this new computational framework by performing a linear coseismic slip inversion through adjoint-based optimization methods, without requiring computation of elastic Green’s functions. Specifically, we consider a penalized least squares formulation, which in a Bayesian setting—under the assumption of Gaussian noise and prior—reflects the negative log of the posterior distribution. The comparison of the inversion results with a standard, linear inverse theory approach based on Okada’s solutions shows analogous results. Preliminary uncertainties are estimated via eigenvalue analysis of the Hessian of the penalized least squares objective function. Our implementation is fully open-source and Jupyter notebooks to reproduce our results are provided. The extension to a fully Bayesian framework for detailed uncertainty quantification and non-linear inversions, including for heterogeneous media earthquake problems, will be analysed in a forthcoming paper.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Uncertainty in Moment Estimation for Small Earthquakes in Southern Nevada Using the Coda Envelope Method

Compiling source parameter estimates for small earthquakes is important both for our understanding of earthquake physics and for accurately assessing earthquake hazard. Reliable source parameter estimates are difficult to achieve for small earthquakes, in part due to our inability to accurately model the relevant physical processes at high frequencies. The coda envelope methodology developed by Mayeda and Walter (1996) and Mayeda et al. (2003) can mitigate this concern and estimate the moment of small earthquakes by determining the parameters that control the shape of the S-wave coda envelope while eliminating path effects by minimizing the scatter between seismic stations. Here, we use an open-source implementation of this technique called the Coda Calibration Tool (CCT; Barno, 2017) to calculate CCT-based moment magnitude estimates of small earthquakes (M L 0–3) in the Rock Valley, Nevada, region within the Nevada National Security Site. The Rock Valley data set is of particular interest because it allows us to explore the changes in uncertainties of the coda calibration method with earthquake size and depth. We found that a consistent linear relationship exists between the local magnitude M L and our coda-derived M w estimates for earthquakes as small as M L 0–3, but that current CCT workflows do not accurately characterize very shallow events. We also demonstrate that the epistemic uncertainty in the apparent stress value assumed by the CCT algorithm can influence magnitude estimates of small earthquakes. In conclusion, these results provide valuable insight into the seismicity of this region, and inform future analysis and modeling efforts for nuclear monitoring and seismic hazard.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Standardising the “Gregory method” for calculating equilibrium climate sensitivity

The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) – the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 – is a high-profile metric for quantifying the Earth system's response to human-induced climate change. A widely applied approach to estimating the ECS is the “Gregory method” (Gregory et al., 2004), which uses an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression between the net radiative flux, N, and surface air temperature anomalies, ΔT, from a 150 year experiment in which atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are quadrupled. The ECS is determined by extrapolating the linear fit to N=0, i.e. the ΔT-intercept, indicating the point at which the system is back in equilibrium. This method has been used to compare ECS estimates across the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles and will likely be a key diagnostic for CMIP7. Despite its widespread application, there is little consistency or transparency between studies in how the climate model data is processed prior to the regression, leading to potential discrepancies in ECS estimates. We identify 32 alternative data processing pathways, varying by differences in global mean weighting, net radiative flux variable, anomaly calculation method, and linear regression fit. Using 44 CMIP6 models, we systematically assess the impact of these choices on ECS estimates and calculate uncertainty ranges using two bootstrap approaches. While the inter-model ECS range is insensitive to the data processing pathway, individual outlier models exhibit notable differences. Approximating a model's native grid cell area (if irregular) with cosine of the latitude can decrease the ECS by 11 %, the choice of N-variable can change the ECS by 6 %, and some anomaly calculation methods can introduce spurious temporal correlations in the processed data. Beyond data processing choices, we also evaluate an alternative linear regression method – total least squares (TLS) – which has a more statistically robust basis than OLS. However, for consistency with previous literature, and given TLS may reduce the ECS compared to OLS (by up to 24 %), thereby making a known bias in the Gregory method worse, we do not feel there is sufficient clarity to recommend a transition to TLS in all cases. To improve reproducibility and comparability in future studies, we recommend a standardised Gregory method: weighting the global mean by cell area, using the top of the atmosphere (as opposed to the top of model) N-variable, and calculating anomalies by first applying a rolling average to the preindustrial control timeseries then subtracting from the raw CO 2 quadrupling experiment. This approach accounts for model drift while reducing noise in the data to best meet the pre-conditions of the linear regression. While CMIP6 results of the multi-model mean ECS appear insensitive to these processing choices, similar assumptions may not hold for CMIP7, underscoring the need for standardised data preparation in future climate sensitivity assessments.

Geosciences↗
NASA NTRS1980

Estimation of wing nonlinear aerodynamic characteristics at supersonic speeds

A computational system for estimation of nonlinear aerodynamic characteristics of wings at supersonic speeds was developed and was incorporated in a computer program. This corrected linearized theory method accounts for nonlinearities in the variation of basic pressure loadings with local surface slopes, predicts the degree of attainment of theoretical leading edge thrust, and provides an estimate of detached leading edge vortex loadings that result when the theoretical thrust forces are not fully realized.

Carlson, H. W.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Frequency and Angular Variations of Land Surface Microwave Emissivities: Can we Estimate SSM/T and AMSU Emissivities from SSM/I Emissivities?

To retrieve temperature and humidity profiles from SSM/T and AMSU, it is important to quantify the contribution of the Earth surface emission. So far, no global estimates of the land surface emissivities are available at SSM/T and AMSU frequencies and scanning conditions. The land surface emissivities have been previously calculated for the globe from the SSM/I conical scanner between 19 and 85 GHz. To analyze the feasibility of deriving SSM/T and AMSU land surface emissivities from SSM/I emissivities, the spectral and angular variations of the emissivities are studied, with the help of ground-based measurements, models and satellite estimates. Up to 100 GHz, for snow and ice free areas, the SSM/T and AMSU emissivities can be derived with useful accuracy from the SSM/I emissivities- The emissivities can be linearly interpolated in frequency. Based on ground-based emissivity measurements of various surface types, a simple model is proposed to estimate SSM/T and AMSU emissivities for all zenith angles knowing only the emissivities for the vertical and horizontal polarizations at 53 deg zenith angle. The method is tested on the SSM/T-2 91.655 GHz channels. The mean difference between the SSM/T-2 and SSM/I-derived emissivities is less than or equal to 0.01 for all zenith angles with an r.m.s. difference of approx. = 0.02. Above 100 GHz, preliminary results are presented at 150 GHz, based on SSM/T-2 observations and are compared with the very few estimations available in the literature.

Prigent, Catherine↗
DOE OSTI2019

Dependence of the Two-Photon Absorption Coefficient of Steel on the Pulse Duration During Its Ablation by Femto- and Picosecond Laser Pulses

The dependences of the depth of single-pulse ablation of the steel surface on the energy density of ultrashort laser pulses (0.3–12 ps) with a wavelength of 515 nm have the form different from the usual logarithmic one for linear absorption of radiation. Since the density of states of free conduction electrons in the s band is low, and the d band of strongly bound electrons with a high density of states is located around the Fermi level, these dependences have been approximated within the two-photon absorption model. The two-photon absorption coefficient increases almost linearly with the duration of laser pulses, which indicates the saturation of absorption and allows estimating the corresponding parameters of the electronic subsystem. © 2019, Pleiades Publishing, Inc.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Assessment of the combination of temperature and relative humidity on kidney stone presentations

Highlights: • Temperature and relative humidity have opposing effects on evaporative water loss. • Wet-bulb temperatures best predicted kidney stone presentations. • Differences in predictive capacity of temperature metrics were greatest in summer. Temperature and relative humidity have opposing effects on evaporative water loss, the likely mediator of the temperature-dependence of nephrolithiasis. However, prior studies considered only dry-bulb temperatures when estimating the temperature-dependence of nephrolithiasis. We used distributed lag non-linear models and repeated 10-fold cross-validation to determine the daily temperature metric and corresponding adjustment for relative humidity that most accurately predicted kidney stone presentations during hot and cold periods in South Carolina from 1997 to 2015. We examined three metrics for wet-bulb temperatures and heat index, both of which measure the combination of temperature and humidity, and for dry-bulb temperatures: (1) daytime mean temperature; (2) 24-h mean temperature; and (3) most extreme 24-h temperature. For models using dry-bulb temperatures, we considered four treatments of relative humidity. Among 188,531 patients who presented with kidney stones, 24-h wet bulb temperature best predicted kidney stone presentation during summer. Mean cross-validated residuals were generally lower in summer for wet-bulb temperatures and heat index than the corresponding dry-bulb temperature metric, regardless of type of adjustment for relative humidity. Those dry-bulb models that additionally adjusted for relative humidity had higher mean residuals than other temperature metrics. The relative risk of kidney stone presentations at the 99th percentile of each temperature metric compared to the respective median temperature in summer months differed by temperature metric and relative humidity adjustment, and ranged from an excess risk of 8–14%. All metrics performed similarly in winter. The combination of temperature and relative humidity determine the risk of kidney stone presentations, particularly during periods of high heat and humidity. These results suggest that metrics that measure moist heat stress should be used to estimate the temperature-dependence of kidney stone presentations, but that the particular metric is relatively unimportant.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

WE-E-18A-09: Application of a Channelized Hotelling Observer Model to Evaluate Angiographic Imaging Equipment

Purpose: To develop and apply an observer model to objectively evaluate and compare the performance of different angiographic imaging equipment and acquisition variables. Methods: Image Acquisition— Iodine-based phantoms were created with target diameters: 0.5, 1, 2, and 4 mm. The phantoms were imaged using both planes of a bi-plane angiography system with detector pixel dimensions 0.1542 mm{sup 2} and 0.1842 mm{sup 2}, respectively. All four phantoms were imaged with magnification factors 1.5, 1.25 and 1 and with the large and small focal spots. Phantom position and the dose per frame (0.12– 0.24 μ Gy/frame) were varied for a single phantom size, magnification and focal spot. Observer Model— For each experimental condition, 1200 signal-present and signal-absent images were acquired and a detectability index (d') was calculated with a Gabor-channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) model. Detectability indices were evaluated as a function of dose, phantom size, and magnification. The model was then applied to compare d' of the two imaging planes and focal spots. Uncertainty in d' was estimated by bootstrapping the data and by examining the shift-variance of systems. Results: Detectability indices varied linearly with magnification and the square root of dose. For the 2 and 4 mm phantoms, d' varied linearly with diameter. For the 0.5 and 1 mm phantoms, d' expectedly deviated from this linear relationship due to substantial detector and focal spot blurring of the phantoms. The small focal spot yielded up to 50% greater d' values than the large focal spot. For the two detectors, differences in d' did not exceed the estimated ∼7% error. Conclusions: The detectability indices predictably scaled with dose, diameter, magnification, and focal spot size and serve to validate the model. Results demonstrate statistically similar target detectability for both investigated detectors, despite differences in pixel dimensions. This CHO model provides a framework to evaluate angiographic system performance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1974

On the design of optimal input signals in system identification

The problem of designing optimal inputs in the identification of linear systems with unknown random parameters is considered using a Bayesian approach. The information matrix, which is positive definite for the class of systems analyzed, gives a measure of performance for the system inputs. The computation of the optimal closed-loop input mappings is shown to be a nontrivial exercise in adaptive control. Deterministic optimal inputs are shown to be easily computable. Numerical examples are given. A Kalman filter is used to estimate the parameters. A necessary condition for the Kalman filter not to diverge when applying linear feedback is also given.

Lopez-Toledo, A. A.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Forced, stationary waves in a linear, stratified, quasi-geostrophic atmosphere

A finite difference model and an approximate WKB analysis were employed to test the validity of three of the Smagorinsky conclusions (1953) regarding the influence of diabatic heating upon the resultant stationary eddies. The conclusions comprised a necessity of including surface friction to avoid resonance, to account for stratospheric influence to accurately estimate the magnitude of the disturbances in the upper third of the troposphere, and the adequacy of the linear model for describing the gross features of sea-level normals at middle and high latitudes. Results of the WKB analysis of the effects of orography and diabatic heating demonstrate that streamfunctions are produced when orography forces a stationary solution. The surface friction is concluded to have a negligible effect on the solutions when the wind speeds are low. The solutions, however, require the presence of a lid for the middle troposphere to eliminate resonance responses.

Roads, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The effects of clutter-rejection filtering on estimating weather spectrum parameters

The effects of clutter-rejection filtering on estimating the weather parameters from pulse Doppler radar measurement data are investigated. The pulse pair method of estimating the spectrum mean and spectrum width of the weather is emphasized. The loss of sensitivity, a measure of the signal power lost due to filtering, is also considered. A flexible software tool developed to investigate these effects is described. It allows for simulated weather radar data, in which the user specifies an underlying truncated Gaussian spectrum, as well as for externally generated data which may be real or simulated. The filter may be implemented in either the time or the frequency domain. The software tool is validated by comparing unfiltered spectrum mean and width estimates to their true values, and by reproducing previously published results. The effects on the weather parameter estimates using simulated weather-only data are evaluated for five filters: an ideal filter, two infinite impulse response filters, and two finite impulse response filters. Results considering external data, consisting of weather and clutter data, are evaluated on a range cell by range cell basis. Finally, it is shown theoretically and by computer simulation that a linear phase response is not required for a clutter rejection filter preceeding pulse-pair parameter estimation.

Davis, W. T.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Are the 1986-1988 changes in solar free-oscillation frequency splitting significant?

The solar normal-mode splitting coefficients deduced from Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO) data differ between 1986 and 1988; inversions for equatorial rotation are slower at depth and faster near the surface in 1988 than in 1986. The significance of the change has been disputed. The data sets overlap for five splitting coefficients (a(j))super 5 sub j = 1 associated with 710 multiplets. On the assumption that rotation rate varies smoothly with radius, both data sets are satisfied by the same rotation model at all colatitudes except near 30-40 deg and near 70 deg (and at their southern hemisphere reflections 140-150 deg and 110 deg). The evidence for equatorial change is weak. Nonparametric tests show a significant offset in the magnitudes of a(1), a(2), and a(4), and of linear combinations sensitive to rotation at colatitudes of 60-80 deg (and 120 deg). Nonparametric tests show significant radial trends in the changes to a(2), a(4), and (less significantly) a(5). There is strong anticorrelation between a(2) and a(4), a(1) and a(3), and a(3) and a(5), suggesting that the estimates are not independent. Individual coefficients a(j) show more evidence for change than do 'physical' linear combinations, adding weight to this hypothesis. Some of the changes in splitting might be related to solar activity, which changed most near colatitude 70 deg from 1986 to 1988.

Gough, Douglas↗
DOE OSTI2026

Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP)

Anthropogenic climate change is unfolding rapidly, yet its regional manifestation can be obscured by internal variability. A primary goal of climate science is to identify the externally forced climate response from among the noise of internal variability. Separating the forced response from internal variability can be addressed in climate models by using a large ensemble to average over different possible realizations of internal variability. However, with only one realization of the real world, it is a major challenge to isolate the forced response directly in observations. In the Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP), contributors used existing and newly developed statistical and machine learning methods to estimate the forced response over 1950–2022 within individual realizations of the climate system. Participants used neural networks, linear inverse models, fingerprinting methods, and low-frequency component analysis, among other approaches. These methods were trained using large ensembles from multiple climate models and then applied to observations. Here, we evaluate method performance within large ensembles and investigate the estimates of the forced response in observations. Our results show that many different types of methods are skillful for estimating the forced response in climate models, though the relative skill of individual methods varies depending on the variable and evaluation metric. Methods with comparable skill in models can give a wide range of estimates of the forced response pattern in observations, illustrating the epistemic uncertainty in forced response estimates. ForceSMIP gives new insights into the forced response in observations, its uncertainty, and methods for its estimation.

Climate attribution↗