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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,657 records · Page 92
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Preliminary design of control rods in the single-fluid double-zone thorium molten salt reactor (SD-TMSR)

Recent studies on Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs) showed that the excess reactivity at the beginning of the operation is large for many fueling strategies and must be compensated by a reactivity control system. The current work introduces a reliable safety system based on control rods in addition to the online feed system reactivity control in the Single-fluid Double-zone Thorium-based Molten Salt Reactor (SD-TMSR). Three different initial fissile loadings are considered: 233 U, reactor-grade Pu, and transuranic (TRU) elements as a startup fuel. We applied six different absorbing materials to investigate the main operational and safety parameters in the SD-TMSR: natural B 4 C, enriched B 4 C with 90% 10 B, HfB 2 , HfH 1.62 , Eu 2 O 3 , and Gd 2 O 3 . The present work focuses on control rod design, integral and differential control rod worth, shutdown margin, and shadowing effects at steady-state. We employed the SERPENT-2 Monte-Carlo code to calculate the reactivity worth and analyze the performance of the reactivity control system. We showed that 233 U and reactor-grade Pu startup cores maintain adequate shutdown margin with all considered absorbers. Finally, this report proposes a design of control rod clusters that compensate the excess reactivity of the SD-TMSR loaded with different initial fissile material.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

An experimental study of the behavior of a high efficiency residential heat pump in cooling mode with common installation faults imposed

Faults are believed to be common in split system air-conditioner and heat pump systems, due to operating degradation or installation problems. Common faults include improper refrigerant charge, reduced evaporator airflow, liquid line restrictions, and the presence of non-condensable gas. Laboratory tests were used to quantify fault impacts on performance of a heat pump system, and impacts on indicator variables such as refrigerant temperatures and pressures. This paper describes a large set of laboratory tests implemented on a high efficiency heat pump operating in cooling mode. This system uses R-410A refrigerant and has a rotary compressor, TXV, two accumulators, and a compensator. A small number of previous experimental studies have been done previously to study the effects of some operating faults, but none has examined a modern system with these components. The tests were conducted with a range of fault intensities and driving conditions. The results are compared to previous researchers’ experimental results. The system’s performance was found to be quite robust in the presence of faults. The TXV, accumulators, and compensator significantly reduce sensitivity to refrigerant charge and liquid line restriction faults, and other faults to a lesser extent.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2017

Energetic basis on interactions between ferredoxin and ferredoxin NADP{sup +} reductase at varying physiological conditions

In spite of a number of studies to characterize ferredoxin (Fd):ferredoxin NADP{sup +} reductase (FNR) interactions at limited conditions, detailed energetic investigation on how these proteins interact under near physiological conditions and its linkage to FNR activity are still lacking. We herein performed systematic Fd:FNR binding thermodynamics using isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC) at distinct pH (6.0 and 8.0), NaCl concentrations (0–200 mM), and temperatures (19–28 °C) for mimicking physiological conditions in chloroplasts. Energetically unfavorable endothermic enthalpy changes were accompanied by Fd:FNR complexation at all conditions. This energetic cost was compensated by favorable entropy changes, balanced by conformational and hydrational entropy. Increases in the NaCl concentration and pH weakened interprotein affinity due to the less contribution of favorable entropy change regardless of energetic gains from enthalpy changes, suggesting that entropy drove complexation and modulated affinity. Effects of temperature on binding thermodynamics were much smaller than those of pH and NaCl. NaCl concentration and pH-dependent enthalpy and heat capacity changes provided clues for distinct binding modes. Moreover, decreases in the enthalpy level in the Hammond's postulate-based energy landscape implicated kinetic advantages for FNR activity. All these energetic interplays were comprehensively demonstrated by the driving force plot with the enthalpy-entropy compensation which may serve as an energetic buffer against outer stresses. We propose that high affinity at pH 6.0 may be beneficial for protection from proteolysis of Fd and FNR in rest states, and moderate affinity at pH 8.0 and proper NaCl concentrations with smaller endothermic enthalpy changes may contribute to increase FNR activity. - Highlights: • Energetics of Fd:FNR binding were examined by considering physiological conditions. • NaCl and pH affect energetically Fd:FNR binding with minimal effects of temperature. • Enthalpy and heat capacity may modulate binding kinetics and modes for FNR activity. • Entropy drives complexation by overcoming unfavorable enthalpy and tunes affinity. • Driving force plot reveals condition-dependent energetic interplays for complexation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ab initio molecular dynamics simulation of Nd3+ incorporation in calcite

Trivalent rare-earth elements (REEs) readily incorporate in Ca-bearing minerals such as calcite (CaCO3), a phenomenon with important implications for the use of REEs as biogeochemical tracers as well as for environmental remediation. Despite substantial efforts, determining the incorporation modes of trivalent REEs in calcite has remained challenging due to their presence in multiple coordination environments. This is particularly problematic for the interpretation of extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) spectroscopy. In this work, ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations of Nd3+ incorporated in calcite were performed to resolve its incorporation modes. Nd3+ and Ca2+ have very similar ionic radii but the additional positive charge requires a charge compensation scheme (CCS). Five CCSs were considered in AIMD simulations, and the resulting atomic trajectories were then used to compute EXAFS spectra for direct fitting to a published experimental spectrum. The results of the fits indicated that Nd3+ incorporates at the Ca2+ site in calcite in a mixture of six- and seven-fold coordination environments and through three main incorporation modes: associated with a protonated nearest-neighbor Ca2+ vacancy, incorporated as NdOH2+, and charge compensated by a remote species (on the spatial scale probed by EXAFS). The incorporation of Nd3+ in calcite via multiple modes was consistent with previous work, but the AIMD-EXAFS approach allowed for resolving the nature, proportion, and structure of the different coordination environments.

Kerisit, Sebastien N.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Effect of HCO 3 - on electrochemical kinetics of carbon steel corrosion in CO 2 -saturated brines

The effect of HCO 3 – (aq) on CO 2 corrosion of carbon steel was investigated in deaerated 3.5 wt% NaCl solutions at 30 °C from pH 3.96 to 7.15. In the CO 2 -saturated solutions, the pH was adjusted with different HCO 3 – (aq) concentrations, c[HCO 3 – (aq)]. The corrosion rate decreased by a factor of 2 as the pH and c[HCO 3 – (aq)] increased. The cathodic current density during polarization increased at higher pH with higher c[HCO 3 – (aq)], indicating that HCO 3 – (aq) acted as an additional hydrogen source for the hydrogen evolution reaction. As the pH increased, the active dissolution regions displayed similar anodic Tafel slopes and suggested a modified Bockris mechanism for the Fe oxidation reaction. The exchange current densities for the half reactions were calculated to study kinetics of the anodic and cathodic half reactions independently. The anodic exchange current density ( j 0,a ) increased by one order of magnitude in the presence of CO 2 , indicating the involvement of CO 2 (aq) in the Fe oxidation reaction. As the pH and c[HCO 3 – (aq)] increased, the cathodic exchange current density ( j 0,c ) decreased by a factor of 50 because the increase in j 0,c [HCO 3 – (aq)] was not high enough to compensate the decline from the other hydrogen sources, especially j 0,c [H + (aq)]; and j 0,a decreased by a factor of 2.4 because HCO 3 – (aq) may have competed with CO 2 (aq) for the surface coverage and the increase in j 0,a [CO 2 (aq)] could not compensate the decrease in j 0,a [CO 2 (aq)]. It suggests that the reaction rate constant of HCO 3 – (aq) was smaller than CO 2 (aq) for the anodic half reaction and was smaller than H + (aq) for the cathodic half reaction. The XPS results verified that the corrosion products transitioned from iron carbonate to hydroxide as the pH increased while iron carbonate remained the major product. As the pH increased with HCO 3 – (aq), a second time constant was observed at lower frequencies of the electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) results.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Leveraging concentrating solar power plant dispatchability: A review of the impacts of global market structures and policy

Concentrating solar power (CSP) integrated with thermal energy storage delivers flexible and dispatchable power, which is an increasingly valuable quality as electricity systems integrate growing penetrations of variable renewable energy. Valuing and compensating CSP's dispatchability and flexibility requires electricity market structures and policies that appropriately remunerate generation during high-value portions of the day. In this paper, we review previous analyses of CSP economics and deployment, and we find that continued CSP growth will require valuation mechanisms that appropriately compensate for CSP's flexibility during both plant design and plant operation. We then review market structures that drive CSP operations and dispatch in jurisdictions where CSP is being developed, with perspectives from Spain, Chile, Australia, Morocco, South Africa, the United States, China, and the United Arab Emirates (Dubai). Despite broad agreement that CSP's dispatchability provides value to electricity grids, countries' policies for remunerating and leveraging such dispatchability varies widely. As deployment of CSP and variable renewable energy grows, it will be increasingly important to redesign current integration policies to signal the delivery of CSP's grid services more appropriately.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Direct regeneration of degraded LiFePO4 cathodes via a separator-enabled prelithiation strategy

A persistent challenge in lithium-ion batteries is the loss of active lithium due to the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) formation and associated side reactions. While prelithiation employing lithium replenishment separator (LRS) has been proven effective in compensating for lithium loss, previous studies have largely been accompanied by gas evolution or solid residue formation during the prelithiation process. To surmount this challenge, we present a LRS based on 4-fluoro-1,2-dihydroxybenzene lithium salt (LiDF), capable of mitigating lithium loss while producing decomposition products that integrate directly into the electrolyte as functional additives which can assist with the stability of the SEI, free from gas or solid formation, thus establishing a sustainable and environmentally benign strategy for lithium compensation. Incorporation of the LRS enables the pristine LiFePO4||graphite (Gr) full cell to achieve 10.8% higher capacity than the cell with a polypropylene separator (PPS) after 200 cycles at 0.5C. Remarkably, the degraded LiFePO4 (D-LFP)||Gr full cell with the LRS exhibits a 135.8% capacity improvement over the PPS-based cell after 500 cycles. These findings establish the LRS as a powerful approach for both boosting high-performance lithium-ion batteries and recovering the capacity of degraded batteries.

Tao, Fujun↗
DOE OSTI2026

From MAST-U to STEP: Power exhaust control challenges and opportunities

This work explores the challenges and opportunities for power exhaust control in STEP, informed by dedicated MAST-U experiments. The STEP system primarily relies on hydrogenic and argon gas injection into the divertors, compensating for transients originating in the plasma core. Fast transients (>10 Hz) that evolve too quickly for actuators to compensate must be absorbed passively; the enhanced transient buffering of the foreseen long-legged divertor provides a clear advantage over conventional geometries, as demonstrated in the MAST-U Super-X divertor. Experiments further indicate that STEP’s tight divertor baffling enables near-independent control of the upper and lower divertors. The most challenging transients are expected from power-sharing fluctuations, as MAST-U experiments observed extremely fast dynamics. Fluctuations from core pellet fuelling remain relatively benign due to the small pellet size according to simulations. Exhaust control in a reactor like STEP requires an integrated approach befitting its machine-critical nature. A predictive control element, integrated with core plasma control, allows pre-emptive preparation of the divertor for incoming transients. An observer-based diagnostic approach is foreseen to monitor the divertor in the challenging reactor environment, supported by an extended diagnostic set in the non-nuclear phase to validate the required dynamic models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2013

Cone-Beam Computed Tomography–Guided Positioning of Laryngeal Cancer Patients with Large Interfraction Time Trends in Setup and Nonrigid Anatomy Variations

Purpose: To investigate interfraction setup variations of the primary tumor, elective nodes, and vertebrae in laryngeal cancer patients and to validate protocols for cone beam computed tomography (CBCT)-guided correction. Methods and Materials: For 30 patients, CBCT-measured displacements in fractionated treatments were used to investigate population setup errors and to simulate residual setup errors for the no action level (NAL) offline protocol, the extended NAL (eNAL) protocol, and daily CBCT acquisition with online analysis and repositioning. Results: Without corrections, 12 of 26 patients treated with radical radiation therapy would have experienced a gradual change (time trend) in primary tumor setup ≥4 mm in the craniocaudal (CC) direction during the fractionated treatment (11/12 in caudal direction, maximum 11 mm). Due to these trends, correction of primary tumor displacements with NAL resulted in large residual CC errors (required margin 6.7 mm). With the weekly correction vector adjustments in eNAL, the trends could be largely compensated (CC margin 3.5 mm). Correlation between movements of the primary and nodal clinical target volumes (CTVs) in the CC direction was poor (r{sup 2}=0.15). Therefore, even with online setup corrections of the primary CTV, the required CC margin for the nodal CTV was as large as 6.8 mm. Also for the vertebrae, large time trends were observed for some patients. Because of poor CC correlation (r{sup 2}=0.19) between displacements of the primary CTV and the vertebrae, even with daily online repositioning of the vertebrae, the required CC margin around the primary CTV was 6.9 mm. Conclusions: Laryngeal cancer patients showed substantial interfraction setup variations, including large time trends, and poor CC correlation between primary tumor displacements and motion of the nodes and vertebrae (internal tumor motion). These trends and nonrigid anatomy variations have to be considered in the choice of setup verification protocol and planning target volume margins. eNAL could largely compensate time trends with minor prolongation of fraction time.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Examination of Industry Payments to Radiation Oncologists in 2014 Using the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Open Payments Database

Purpose: To use the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Open Payments database to characterize payments made to radiation oncologists and compare their payment profile with that of medical and surgical oncologists. Methods and Materials: The June 2015 release of the Open Payments database was accessed, containing all payments made to physicians in 2014. The general payments dataset was used for analysis. Data on payments made to medical, surgical, and radiation oncologists was obtained and compared. Within radiation oncology, data regarding payment category, sponsorship, and geographic distribution were identified. Basic statistics including mean, median, range, and sum were calculated by provider and by transaction. Results: Among the 3 oncologic specialties, radiation oncology had the smallest proportion (58%) of compensated physicians and the lowest mean ($1620) and median ($112) payment per provider. Surgical oncology had the highest proportion (84%) of compensated physicians, whereas medical oncology had the highest mean ($6371) and median ($448) payment per physician. Within radiation oncology, nonconsulting services accounted for the most money to physicians ($1,042,556), whereas the majority of the sponsors were medical device companies (52%). Radiation oncologists in the West accepted the most money ($2,041,603) of any US Census region. Conclusions: Radiation oncologists in 2014 received a large number of payments from industry, although less than their medical or surgical counterparts. As the Open Payments database continues to be improved, it remains to be seen whether this information will be used by patients to inform choice of providers or by lawmakers to enact policy regulating physician–industry relationships.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Intrafractional Baseline Shift or Drift of Lung Tumor Motion During Gated Radiation Therapy With a Real-Time Tumor-Tracking System

Purpose: To investigate the frequency and amplitude of baseline shift or drift (shift/drift) of lung tumors in stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT), using a real-time tumor-tracking radiation therapy (RTRT) system. Methods and Materials: Sixty-eight patients with peripheral lung tumors were treated with SBRT using the RTRT system. One of the fiducial markers implanted near the tumor was used for the real-time monitoring of the intrafractional tumor motion every 0.033 seconds by the RTRT system. When baseline shift/drift is determined by the system, the position of the treatment couch is adjusted to compensate for the shift/drift. Therefore, the changes in the couch position correspond to the baseline shift/drift in the tumor motion. The frequency and amount of adjustment to the couch positions in the left-right (LR), cranio-caudal (CC), and antero-posterior (AP) directions have been analyzed for 335 fractions administered to 68 patients. Results: The average change in position of the treatment couch during the treatment time was 0.45 ± 2.23 mm (mean ± standard deviation), −1.65 ± 5.95 mm, and 1.50 ± 2.54 mm in the LR, CC, and AP directions, respectively. Overall the baseline shift/drift occurs toward the cranial and posterior directions. The incidence of baseline shift/drift exceeding 3 mm was 6.0%, 15.5%, 14.0%, and 42.1% for the LR, CC, AP, and for the square-root of sum of 3 directions, respectively, within 10 minutes of the start of treatment, and 23.0%, 37.6%, 32.5%, and 71.6% within 30 minutes. Conclusions: Real-time monitoring and frequent adjustments of the couch position and/or adding appropriate margins are suggested to be essential to compensate for possible underdosages due to baseline shift/drift in SBRT for lung cancers.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Deep Inspiration Breath Hold—Based Radiation Therapy: A Clinical Review

Several recent developments in linear accelerator–based radiation therapy (RT) such as fast multileaf collimators, accelerated intensity modulation paradigms like volumeric modulated arc therapy and flattening filter-free (FFF) high-dose-rate therapy have dramatically shortened the duration of treatment fractions. Deliverable photon dose distributions have approached physical complexity limits as a consequence of precise dose calculation algorithms and online 3-dimensional image guided patient positioning (image guided RT). Simultaneously, beam quality and treatment speed have continuously been improved in particle beam therapy, especially for scanned particle beams. Applying complex treatment plans with steep dose gradients requires strategies to mitigate and compensate for motion effects in general, particularly breathing motion. Intrafractional breathing-related motion results in uncertainties in dose delivery and thus in target coverage. As a consequence, generous margins have been used, which, in turn, increases exposure to organs at risk. Particle therapy, particularly with scanned beams, poses additional problems such as interplay effects and range uncertainties. Among advanced strategies to compensate breathing motion such as beam gating and tracking, deep inspiration breath hold (DIBH) gating is particularly advantageous in several respects, not only for hypofractionated, high single-dose stereotactic body RT of lung, liver, and upper abdominal lesions but also for normofractionated treatment of thoracic tumors such as lung cancer, mediastinal lymphomas, and breast cancer. This review provides an in-depth discussion of the rationale and technical implementation of DIBH gating for hypofractionated and normofractionated RT of intrathoracic and upper abdominal tumors in photon and proton RT.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Impact of Spot Size and Beam-Shaping Devices on the Treatment Plan Quality for Pencil Beam Scanning Proton Therapy

Purpose: This study aimed to assess the clinical impact of spot size and the addition of apertures and range compensators on the treatment quality of pencil beam scanning (PBS) proton therapy and to define when PBS could improve on passive scattering proton therapy (PSPT). Methods and Materials: The patient cohort included 14 pediatric patients treated with PSPT. Six PBS plans were created and optimized for each patient using 3 spot sizes (∼12-, 5.4-, and 2.5-mm median sigma at isocenter for 90- to 230-MeV range) and adding apertures and compensators to plans with the 2 larger spots. Conformity and homogeneity indices, dose-volume histogram parameters, equivalent uniform dose (EUD), normal tissue complication probability (NTCP), and integral dose were quantified and compared with the respective PSPT plans. Results: The results clearly indicated that PBS with the largest spots does not necessarily offer a dosimetric or clinical advantage over PSPT. With comparable target coverage, the mean dose (D{sub mean}) to healthy organs was on average 6.3% larger than PSPT when using this spot size. However, adding apertures to plans with large spots improved the treatment quality by decreasing the average D{sub mean} and EUD by up to 8.6% and 3.2% of the prescribed dose, respectively. Decreasing the spot size further improved all plans, lowering the average D{sub mean} and EUD by up to 11.6% and 10.9% compared with PSPT, respectively, and eliminated the need for beam-shaping devices. The NTCP decreased with spot size and addition of apertures, with maximum reduction of 5.4% relative to PSPT. Conclusions: The added benefit of using PBS strongly depends on the delivery configurations. Facilities limited to large spot sizes (>∼8 mm median sigma at isocenter) are recommended to use apertures to reduce treatment-related toxicities, at least for complex and/or small tumors.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Edema and Seed Displacements Affect Intraoperative Permanent Prostate Brachytherapy Dosimetry

Purpose: We sought to identify the intraoperative displacement patterns of seeds and to evaluate the correlation of intraoperative dosimetry with day 30 for permanent prostate brachytherapy. Methods and Materials: We analyzed the data from 699 patients. Intraoperative dosimetry was acquired using transrectal ultrasonography (TRUS) and C-arm cone beam computed tomography (CBCT). Intraoperative dosimetry (minimal dose to 40%-95% of the volume [D{sub 40}-D{sub 95}]) was compared with the day 30 dosimetry for both modalities. An additional edema-compensating comparison was performed for D{sub 90}. Stranded seeds were linked between TRUS and CBCT using an automatic and fast linking procedure. Displacement patterns were analyzed for each seed implantation location. Results: On average, an intraoperative (TRUS to CBCT) D{sub 90} decline of 10.6% ± 7.4% was observed. Intraoperative CBCT D{sub 90} showed a greater correlation (R{sup 2} = 0.33) with respect to Day 30 than did TRUS (R{sup 2} = 0.17). Compensating for edema, the correlation increased to 0.41 for CBCT and 0.38 for TRUS. The mean absolute intraoperative seed displacement was 3.9 ± 2.0 mm. The largest seed displacements were observed near the rectal wall. The central and posterior seeds showed less caudal displacement than lateral and anterior seeds. Seeds that were implanted closer to the base showed more divergence than seeds close to the apex. Conclusions: Intraoperative CBCT D{sub 90} showed a greater correlation with the day 30 dosimetry than intraoperative TRUS. Edema seemed to cause most of the systematic difference between the intraoperative and day 30 dosimetry. Seeds near the rectal wall showed the most displacement, comparing TRUS and CBCT, probably because of TRUS probe–induced prostate deformation.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Effect of Dopant Concentration and Annealing Treatments on N-Type Iodine Doped CdTe

We report properties of highly conducting n-type cadmium telluride single crystals doped with iodine (CdTe:I). These crystals were grown with dopant concentrations in the range of 10^17 cm-3 to 10^19 cm-3 by Modified Vertical Bridgman (MVB) melt growth. Post-growth dopant activation, including Cd annealing, Te annealing, and rapid thermal annealing (RTA), was applied to improve free carrier density. The structural, optical, and electrical properties were analyzed by Glow Discharge Mass Spectroscopy (GDMS), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), X-ray diffraction (XRD), Photoluminescence Spectroscopy (PL), optical absorption, Hall measurements, Capacitance-Voltage (CV) measurements, and time-resolved photoluminescence (TRPL). The results indicate that Cd annealing is the most effective activation method to get 100% donor activation (n is approximately 2 x 10^18 cm-3), which is close to the room temperature solubility limit of iodine. This leads to the lowest resistivity and the highest mobility. Moreover, this data suggests a potential role of Cd vacancy-related defects on electrical self-compensation.

annealing↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pentaerythritol structure-directing agents bias aluminum siting in MFI zeolites to increase para -xylene selectivity during toluene methylation

MFI zeolites contain ten-membered ring channels (∼0.55 nm diameter) that intersect to form larger voids (∼0.70 nm diameter). The distribution of framework Al sites dictates the void environments that confine active H + sites. MFI synthesized with pentaerythritol (PET) and Na + as structure-directing agents are interrogated using kinetically controlled toluene methylation rates and xylene isomer selectivities. High para-xylene selectivity and low toluene methylation rates indicate that MFI-PET samples contain H + sites predominantly in smaller channels. As-synthesized samples contain more framework Al than Na + , indicating that some charge compensation is provided by protonated PET-solvent complexes that bias Al siting towards these smaller channels.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2014

ENSO regimes and the late 1970's climate shift: The role of synoptic weather and South Pacific ocean spiciness

South Pacific subtropical density compensated temperature and salinity (spiciness) anomalies are known to be associated with decadal equatorial variability, however, the mechanisms by which such disturbances are generated, advect and the degree to which they modulate the equatorial thermocline remains controversial. During the late 1970's a climate regime transition preceded a period of strong and sustained El Nino events. Using an ocean general circulation model forced by the constituent mechanical and thermodynamic components of the reanalysed atmosphere we show that the late 1970's transition coincided with the arrival of a large-scale, subsurface cold and fresh water anomaly in the central tropical Pacific. An ocean reanalysis for the period 1990–2007 that assimilates subsurface Argo, XBT and CTD data, reveals that disturbances occur due to the subduction of negative surface salinity anomalies from near 30° S, 100° W which are advected along the σ=25–26 kgm{sup −3} isopycnal surfaces. These anomalies take, on average, seven years to reach the central equatorial Pacific where they may substantially perturb the thermocline before the remnants ultimately ventilate in the region of the western Pacific warm pool. Positive (warm–salty) disturbances, known to occur due to late winter diapycnal mixing and isopycnal outcropping, arise due to both subduction of subtropical mode waters and subsurface injection. On reaching the equatorial band (10° S–0° S) these disturbances tend to deepen the thermocline reducing the model's ENSO. In contrast the emergence of negative (cold–fresh) disturbances at the equator are associated with a shoaling of the thermocline and El Nino events. Process studies are used to show that the generation and advection of anomalous density compensated thermocline disturbances critically depend on stochastic forcing of the intrinsic ocean by weather. We further show that in the absence of the inter-annual component of the atmosphere forcing Central Pacific El Nino events are manifest.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

Semiparametric modeling: Correcting low-dimensional model error in parametric models

In this paper, a semiparametric modeling approach is introduced as a paradigm for addressing model error arising from unresolved physical phenomena. Our approach compensates for model error by learning an auxiliary dynamical model for the unknown parameters. Practically, the proposed approach consists of the following steps. Given a physics-based model and a noisy data set of historical observations, a Bayesian filtering algorithm is used to extract a time-series of the parameter values. Subsequently, the diffusion forecast algorithm is applied to the retrieved time-series in order to construct the auxiliary model for the time evolving parameters. The semiparametric forecasting algorithm consists of integrating the existing physics-based model with an ensemble of parameters sampled from the probability density function of the diffusion forecast. To specify initial conditions for the diffusion forecast, a Bayesian semiparametric filtering method that extends the Kalman-based filtering framework is introduced. In difficult test examples, which introduce chaotically and stochastically evolving hidden parameters into the Lorenz-96 model, we show that our approach can effectively compensate for model error, with forecasting skill comparable to that of the perfect model.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗