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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2021

Truncated ARQ Statistical Link Analysis for Dynamic Links

The future deep space links are migrating towards higher frequency bands such as Ka band and optical. These links are susceptible to non Gaussian and non linear effects such as atmospheric turbulence, scintillation, antenna mis-pointing, jitter, etc. These dynamic links thus will experience various degrees of fading loss, and some of these link disruptions cannot be effectively mitigated by forward error correction coding and/or interleaving. One effective way to ensure reliable communication is by using Automatic Repeat Request (ARQ) protocol, where the receiver acknowledges to the transmitter whether or not a data unit is successfully received. If a data unit is not successfully received (such as after a pre-set time-out), the transmitter would then re-transmit the lost data unit to the receiver. In a previous paper, we derived a statistical link analysis method of finding the optimal operating Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) and estimating the latency of an ARQ scheme. In a more recent paper, we demonstrated the above method using the SNR distribution constructed from the Ka-band (32 GHz) flight data. To simplify the discussion, we considered the academic approach that the ARQ scheme allows for an infinite number of retransmissions. In this paper, we consider the more practical case of a truncated ARQ scheme, where there is a limit on the number of retransmissions. We derive the error probability, the optimal SNR setting, and the latency statistics of the correctly received frames of the truncated ARQ schemes. We first discuss the truncated ARQ link analysis principles using the Gaussian assumption for SNR distribution with a large variance. Next, we demonstrate the statistical truncated ARQ link analysis using the SNR distribution constructed from the Ka-band flight data. The results in this paper can be applied in the design of reliable communication systems such as the Consultative Committee for Space Data System (CCSDS) File Transfer Protocol (CFTP) and the Delay Tolerant Network (DTN).

Morabito, David↗
DOE OSTI2014

Testing cosmic geometry without dynamic distortions using voids

We propose a novel technique to probe the expansion history of the Universe based on the clustering statistics of cosmic voids. In particular, we compute their two-point statistics in redshift space on the basis of realistic mock galaxy catalogs and apply the Alcock-Paczynski test. In contrast to galaxies, we find void auto-correlations to be marginally affected by peculiar motions, providing a model-independent measure of cosmological parameters without systematics from redshift-space distortions. Because only galaxy-galaxy and void-galaxy correlations have been considered in these types of studies before, the presented method improves both statistical and systematic uncertainties on the product of angular diameter distance and Hubble rate, furnishing the potentially cleanest probe of cosmic geometry available to date.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2017

Methods for Probabilistic Uncertainty Analysis and Bayesian Analysis with Examples of Statistically Analyzing Data to Revise MMOD Risk Estimates and Compare Models

Probabilistic methods are presented for characterizing and quantifying uncertainties in models and model predictions. Techniques are given for constructing specific uncertainty distributions based on available information. Alternative techniques are given for propagating uncertainties in model inputs to obtain the uncertainty in the model result or prediction. Bayesian techniques are also described for utilizing data and information to update and revise model results and predictions. The focus is on applications with numerous specific examples given. The use of data to revise Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) risk prediction models are among the examples given.

Risk↗
DOE OSTI2014

LyMAS: Predicting large-scale Lyα forest statistics from the dark matter density field

We describe Lyα Mass Association Scheme (LyMAS), a method of predicting clustering statistics in the Lyα forest on large scales from moderate-resolution simulations of the dark matter (DM) distribution, with calibration from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations of smaller volumes. We use the 'Horizon-MareNostrum' simulation, a 50 h {sup –1} Mpc comoving volume evolved with the adaptive mesh hydrodynamic code RAMSES, to compute the conditional probability distribution P(F{sub s} |δ {sub s}) of the transmitted flux F{sub s} , smoothed (one-dimensionally, 1D) over the spectral resolution scale, on the DM density contrast δ {sub s}, smoothed (three-dimensionally, 3D) over a similar scale. In this study we adopt the spectral resolution of the SDSS-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) at z = 2.5, and we find optimal results for a DM smoothing length σ = 0.3 h {sup –1} Mpc (comoving). In its simplest form, LyMAS draws randomly from the hydro-calibrated P(F{sub s} |δ {sub s}) to convert DM skewers into Lyα forest pseudo-spectra, which are then used to compute cross-sightline flux statistics. In extended form, LyMAS exactly reproduces both the 1D power spectrum and one-point flux distribution of the hydro simulation spectra. Applied to the MareNostrum DM field, LyMAS accurately predicts the two-point conditional flux distribution and flux correlation function of the full hydro simulation for transverse sightline separations as small as 1 h {sup –1} Mpc, including redshift-space distortion effects. It is substantially more accurate than a deterministic density-flux mapping ({sup F}luctuating Gunn-Peterson Approximation{sup )}, often used for large-volume simulations of the forest. With the MareNostrum calibration, we apply LyMAS to 1024{sup 3} N-body simulations of a 300 h {sup –1} Mpc and 1.0 h {sup –1} Gpc cube to produce large, publicly available catalogs of mock BOSS spectra that probe a large comoving volume. LyMAS will be a powerful tool for interpreting 3D Lyα forest data, thereby transforming measurements from BOSS and other massive quasar absorption surveys into constraints on dark energy, DM, space geometry, and intergalactic medium physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1987

Forecast of an exceptionally large even-numbered solar cycle

Using the 'dynamo theory' method to predict solar activity, an accurate prediction was made for solar cycle 21 by Schatten et al. (1978). Using the same dynamo technique for solar cycle 22, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 170 + or - 25 is obtained. This large sunspot number is expected to peak in 1990 + or - 1 year. The F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 210 + or - 25 flux units. Since this value is larger than values obtained with prediction schemes based upon 'statistical' and 'periodicity' methods, it provides a useful test for the current methodology, based upon the strength of the sun's polar field near solar minimum. The predicted degree of solar activity is expected to enhance the density and temperature of the earth's thermosphere to values somewhat larger than those found in solar cycle 21. This will have an impact on the orbital lifetime of low altitude satellites.

Schatten, Kenneth H.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Estimating region-specific fuel economy in the United States from real-world driving cycles

Here we describe a method for estimating region-specific real-world light-duty vehicle fuel economy in the United States that is unique in both the size and representativeness of real-world driving that was considered, and for its ability to model regional variations in driving patterns. Over one million miles of national driving data were used to select real-world cycles representative of observed trip categories. The six cycles were compared to U.S. legislative cycles, revealing some key differences. Finally, a set of cycle weighting factors for 533 separate U.S. regions was derived from annual traffic statistics. Applying this method, it was found that regional fuel economy varies due to differences in driving patterns alone and that rural driving patterns lead to improved fuel economy (for conventional vehicles). The driving cycles and regional weighting factors described here are useful for testing and simulation studies, specifically those sensitive to regional variations in driving patterns.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2016

Study of the filter method for neutron pulse-height distributions measured with organic scintillators

Identification of neutron sources is of interest in several fields, such as homeland security or basic nu-clear physics. Organic scintillators offer the possibility to unfold fast-neutron energy spectra. Since organic scintillators are sensitive to neutrons and gamma-rays, a method to discriminate these two types of particles is required. This paper is focused on investigation of the discrimination properties of the filter method by using a new procedure. We compare the results of an experimental filter method to a digital pulse-shape discrimination (PSD) method based on charge integration. In addition, these methods are compared to the simulation results obtained with the MCNPX-PoliMi code. The experimental and nu-merical investigations were performed with a 252Cf spontaneous-fission neutron source. The integration of the number of counts gave the relative differences between the experimental filter and digital PSD neutron pulse-height distributions (PHDs) and simulated PHDs less than approximately 5% in the range between 60 keVee and 1.715 MeVee of light output. Above 1.715 MeVee, the PSD method has advantages over the filter method, due to the filter method having significantly worse counting statistics. The results show that the filter method has potential for robust neutron measurements when the PSD method cannot be applied, such as for ‘old’ organic plastic scintillators without PSD capability.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

AEOLUS: Advances in Experimental Design, Optimal Control, and Learning for Uncertain Complex Systems

Sustained advances in the mathematics of modeling and simulation have resulted in the capability today for routine simulation of a number of large scale complex DOE-relevant systems. As remarkable as this capability for solving the so-called forward problem is, it is typically only the first step-an inner loop within an outer loop that explores the simulation model's parameter space and decision space to characterize uncertainty in the model's predictions, learn unknown model parameters from data, design the most informative experiments, determine optimal control strategies, and create optimal designs. Broadly, what unifies all of these outer loop problems is that they are, in one form or another, optimization problems over parameter/control/design space that are constrained by complex uncertain models. To fully realize the power of scientific simulation as a basis for scientific discovery, technological innovation, and rational decision-making, it is imperative to move beyond simulation to tackle the outer loop of optimization for learning from data, experimental design, and control with complex uncertain models. When the models under consideration are large-scale and complex, and when the optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high (or infinite) dimensional, this constitutes a grand challenge of the highest order, and is intractable with conventional methods. To overcome these challenges, the AEOLUS Center was established to develop a unified mathematical, computational, and statistical framework for (1) Learning predictive models from complex data via Bayesian inference and optimization, and (2) Optimizing experiments, processes, and designs using the resulting uncertain models. These problems are intractable with conventional methods, for several reasons: (1) The simulation problems that govern the inner loops of the optimization problems are expensive to execute (due to severe nonlinearity, heterogeneity, multiphysics/multiscale coupling); (2) The optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high dimensional, often stemming from discretizations of infinite dimensional fields such as initial conditions, sources, or material properties. We argue that the key to overcoming these challenges is to develop new mathematical, computational, and statistical methods that exploit the structure of the Bayesian inference and optimization problems mediated by their underlying complex uncertain models. This structure includes the regularity, sparsity, geometry, low intrinsic dimensionality, and multifidelity nature of the maps from uncertain parameter/optimization variable spaces to the specific objectives targeted: Bayesian inference, optimal experimental design, and optimal control design. Black box methods developed as generic tools are incapable of exploiting this structure. To be successful, we must create, integrate, and cross-fertilize ideas across multiple areas of applied math--including approximation theory, Bayesian inference, data science, experimental design, information theory, machine learning, model reduction, optimal control theory, parallel algorithms, PDE-constrained optimization, randomized algorithms, stochastic optimization, and uncertainty quantification--all while exploiting the structure of the problems at hand. With this goal in mind, we have marshaled a team of leading authorities in these areas. While the methods we develop will be broadly applicable across a wide spectrum of DOE problems in which experiments inform models and the systems those models describe must be optimized under uncertainty, we have chosen a specific area, advanced manufacturing and materials, to drive our work. AMM is characterized by complex models across multiple scales, and is a rich source of challenging problems in inference, experimental design, and optimal control, requiring multifaceted and integrated advances in applied mathematics. As such, AMM serves as an excellent vehicle to motivate and demonstrate the advances in applied mathematics developed by our center.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Opportunities in AI/ML for the Rubin LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce unprecedented volumes of heterogeneous astronomical data (images, catalogs, and alerts) that challenge traditional analysis pipelines. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) aims to derive robust constraints on dark energy and dark matter from these data, requiring methods that are statistically powerful, scalable, and operationally reliable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are already embedded across DESC science workflows, from photometric redshifts and transient classification to weak lensing inference and cosmological simulations. Yet their utility for precision cosmology hinges on trustworthy uncertainty quantification, robustness to covariate shift and model misspecification, and reproducible integration within scientific pipelines. This white paper surveys the current landscape of AI/ML across DESC's primary cosmological probes and cross-cutting analyses, revealing that the same core methodologies and fundamental challenges recur across disparate science cases. Since progress on these cross-cutting challenges would benefit multiple probes simultaneously, we identify key methodological research priorities, including Bayesian inference at scale, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, and active learning for discovery. With an eye on emerging techniques, we also explore the potential of the latest foundation model methodologies and LLM-driven agentic AI systems to reshape DESC workflows, provided their deployment is coupled with rigorous evaluation and governance. Finally, we discuss critical software, computing, data infrastructure, and human capital requirements for the successful deployment of these new methodologies, and consider associated risks and opportunities for broader coordination with external actors.

Aubourg, Eric [APC, Paris] (ORCID:000000025592023X↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty analysis of Raman spectra for measuring ortho-parahydrogen compositions

Determining ortho-parahydrogen compositions at cryogenic temperatures is an important quality control for liquid hydrogen custody exchange. High orthohydrogen compositions lead to an exothermic reaction resulting in increased boil off and increased venting losses of liquid hydrogen product by either the supplier or consumer. Traditional methods for measuring ortho-parahydrogen compositions such as hot-wire anemometry, nuclear magnetic resonance, and infrared spectroscopy are typically inconvenient at best. As the number of cryogenic hydrogen systems continue to increase, there is an increased need for flexible, standardized techniques for post processing composition measurements. A Raman spectrometer implemented in the Cryo-Catalysis Hydrogen Experimental Facility (CHEF) has demonstrated incredible flexibility for composition measurements of cryogenic hydrogen flows through a wide range of temperatures and pressures with the Raman probe in-situ at cryogenic temperatures. This article analyzes the uncertainty of Raman spectroscopy data of cryogenic hydrogen equilibrated at temperatures in IONEX catalyst. Spectra from hydrogen catalyzed to the equilibrium ortho-parahydrogen composition are processed and compared to expected statistical distributions for method verification.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

First 3D vector tracking of helium recoils for fast neutron measurements at Super$\mathrm{KEKB}$

Here we present results from the first deployment of novel, high definition, compact gas Time Projection Chambers (TPCs) with pixel chip readout as part of the BEAST II beam background measurement project at SuperKEKB. The TPCs provide detailed 3D imaging of ionization from neutron-induced nuclear recoils in a helium and carbon dioxide target gas mixture at standard temperature and pressure. We present the TPC performance and the neutron backgrounds observed during the initial stage of collider commissioning. We find excellent electron background rejection, leading to background-free nuclear recoil measurements above 50 keV ee , despite the extreme high-background environment. We measure an angular resolution better than 20° for recoil tracks longer than 1.7 mm, corresponding to an average ionization energy of approximately 100 keV ee . We also obtain the full 3D vector direction of helium recoils by utilizing charge profile measurements along the recoil axis, with a correct head/tail assignment efficiency of approximately 80%. With this performance, we present comparisons between measured and simulated event rates, recoil energy spectra, and directional distributions originating from beam–gas and Touschek beam losses at SuperKEKB. We utilize head/tail recognition to distinguish neutron components traveling with positive radial velocity in the Belle II coordinate system from those traveling in the opposite direction. Finally, we present a novel method of discriminating beam–gas interactions from Touschek beam losses that can eliminate the need for dedicated accelerator runs for background measurements. This method is still statistics-limited. However, future studies should be able to verify this method, which in turn could lead to neutron background analysis runs symbiotic with normal Belle II operation. The capabilities demonstrated here also suggest that high definition recoil imaging in gas TPCs is applicable to low energy, low-background experiments, such as directional dark matter searches.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2019

Estimating Code Biases for Criticality Safety Applications with Few Relevant Benchmarks

Criticality safety analyses rely on the availability of relevant benchmark experiments to determine justifiable margins of subcriticality. When a target application lacks neutronically similar benchmark experiments, validation studies must provide justification to the regulator that the impact of modeling and simulation limitations is well understood for the application and often must provide additional subcritical margin to ensure safe operating conditions. This study estimated the computational bias in the critical eigenvalue for several criticality safety applications supported by only a few relevant benchmark experiments. The accuracy of the following three methods for predicting computational biases was evaluated: the Upper Subcritical Limit STATisticS (USLSTATS) trending analysis method; the Whisper nonparametric method; and TSURFER, which is based on the generalized linear least-squares technique. Here, these methods were also applied to estimate computational biases and recommended upper subcriticality limits for several critical experiments with known biases and for several cases from a blind benchmark study. The methods are evaluated based on both the accuracy of their predicted computation bias and upper subcriticality limit estimates, as well as on the consistency of the methods’ estimates, as the model parameters, covariance data libraries, and set of available benchmark data were varied. Data assimilation methods typically have not been used for criticality safety licensing activities, and this study explores a methodology to address concerns regarding the reliability of such methods in criticality safety bias prediction applications.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2014

Growth of Au nanoparticle films and the effect of nanoparticle shape on plasmon peak wavelength

Metal nanoparticles (NPs) exhibit localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR) and thus have potential for use in a wide range of applications. A facile technique for the preparation of NP films using an electron-cyclotron-resonance plasma sputtering method without a dewetting process is described. Field emission scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM) observations revealed that the Au NPs grew independently as island-like particles during the first stage of sputtering and then coalesced with one another as sputtering time increased to ultimately form a continuous film. A plasmon absorption peak was observed via optical measurement of absorption efficiency. The LSPR peak shifted toward longer wavelengths (red shift) with an increase in sputtering time. The cause of this plasmon peak shift was theoretically investigated using the finite-difference time-domain calculation method. A realistic statistical distribution of the particle shapes based on FE-SEM observations was applied for the analysis, which has not been previously reported. It was determined that the change in the shape of the NPs from spheroidal to oval or slender due to coalescence with neighbouring NPs caused the LSPR peak shift. These results may enable the design of LSPR devices by controlling the characteristics of the nanoparticles, such as their size, shape, number density, and coverage.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Probabilistic Model-Based Diagnostic Framework for Nuclear Engineering Systems

A fault diagnostic framework was investigated in this study for applications in thermal–hydraulic systems of nuclear power plants. The proposed framework consists of quantitative model-based diagnosis, statistical change detection and probabilistic reasoning. The use of physics-based diagnostic models provides high detection sensitivity and allows noise and measurement uncertainty to be incorporated robustly. Performance-related parametric models for each component are constructed based on first principles. Numerical model residuals are generated using the concept of analytical redundancy. Statistical change detection methods are employed to detect non-zero residuals in the presence of uncertainty. The diagnosis task is performed using Bayesian inference to detect and localize possible faults. Application to a single-phase heat exchanger for demonstration showed that the proposed probabilistic framework can provide improved results in comparison with traditional approaches while remaining less sensitive to false alarms in the presence of measurement and modeling uncertainty.

Bayesian network↗
DOE OSTI2019

Assessing the Influence of Microphysical and Environmental Parameter Perturbations on Orographic Precipitation

Microphysical (MP) schemes contain parameters whose values can impact the amount and location of forecasted precipitation, and sensitivity is typically explored by perturbing one parameter at a time while holding the rest constant. Although much can be learned from these “one-at-a-time” studies, the results are limited as these methods do not allow for nonlinear interactions of multiple perturbed parameters. This study applies the Morris one-at-a-time (MOAT) method, a robust statistical tool allowing for simultaneous perturbation of numerous parameters, to explore orographic precipitation sensitivity to changes in microphysical and environmental parameters within an environment characteristic of an atmospheric river. Results show parameters associated with snow fall speed coefficient A s and density ρ s , ice-cloud water collection efficiency (ECI), rain accretion (WRA), relative humidity, zonal wind speed, and surface potential temperature cause the largest influence on simulated precipitation. MP and environmental parameter perturbations can cause precipitation changes of similar magnitude, but results vary by location on the mountain. Different environments are also tested, with A s being the most influential MP parameter regardless of environment. Fewer MP parameters influence precipitation in a faster-wind-speed environment, possibly due to the stronger dynamical forcing upwind and different wave dynamics downwind, compared to a slower-wind-speed environment. Finally, perturbing MP parameters within a single scheme can result in precipitation variations of similar magnitude compared to using entirely different microphysics schemes. MOAT results presented in this study have implications for Bayesian parameter estimation methods and stochastic parameterization within ensemble forecasting.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

A new classification scheme of plastic wastes based upon recycling labels

Highlights: • PET, HPDE or PP types of plastics are considered. • An automated classification of plastic bottles based on the feature extraction and classification methods is performed. • The decision mechanism consists of PCA, Kernel PCA, FLDA, SVD and Laplacian Eigenmaps methods. • SVM is selected to achieve the classification task and majority voting technique is used. - Abstract: Since recycling of materials is widely assumed to be environmentally and economically beneficial, reliable sorting and processing of waste packaging materials such as plastics is very important for recycling with high efficiency. An automated system that can quickly categorize these materials is certainly needed for obtaining maximum classification while maintaining high throughput. In this paper, first of all, the photographs of the plastic bottles have been taken and several preprocessing steps were carried out. The first preprocessing step is to extract the plastic area of a bottle from the background. Then, the morphological image operations are implemented. These operations are edge detection, noise removal, hole removing, image enhancement, and image segmentation. These morphological operations can be generally defined in terms of the combinations of erosion and dilation. The effect of bottle color as well as label are eliminated using these operations. Secondly, the pixel-wise intensity values of the plastic bottle images have been used together with the most popular subspace and statistical feature extraction methods to construct the feature vectors in this study. Only three types of plastics are considered due to higher existence ratio of them than the other plastic types in the world. The decision mechanism consists of five different feature extraction methods including as Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Kernel PCA (KPCA), Fisher’s Linear Discriminant Analysis (FLDA), Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and Laplacian Eigenmaps (LEMAP) and uses a simple experimental setup with a camera and homogenous backlighting. Due to the giving global solution for a classification problem, Support Vector Machine (SVM) is selected to achieve the classification task and majority voting technique is used as the decision mechanism. This technique equally weights each classification result and assigns the given plastic object to the class that the most classification results agree on. The proposed classification scheme provides high accuracy rate, and also it is able to run in real-time applications. It can automatically classify the plastic bottle types with approximately 90% recognition accuracy. Besides this, the proposed methodology yields approximately 96% classification rate for the separation of PET or non-PET plastic types. It also gives 92% accuracy for the categorization of non-PET plastic types into HPDE or PP.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2017

Impact of parametric uncertainty on estimation of the energy deposition into an irradiated brain tumor

Predictions of the total energy deposited into a brain tumor through X-ray irradiation are notoriously error-prone. We investigate how this predictive uncertainty is affected by uncertainty in both the location of the region occupied by a dose-enhancing iodinated contrast agent and the agent's concentration. This is done within the probabilistic framework in which these uncertain parameters are modeled as random variables. We employ the stochastic collocation (SC) method to estimate statistical moments of the deposited energy in terms of statistical moments of the random inputs, and the global sensitivity analysis (GSA) to quantify the relative importance of uncertainty in these parameters on the overall predictive uncertainty. A nonlinear radiation–diffusion equation dramatically magnifies the coefficient of variation of the uncertain parameters, yielding a large coefficient of variation for the predicted energy deposition. This demonstrates that accurate prediction of the energy deposition requires a proper treatment of even small parametric uncertainty. Our analysis also reveals that SC outperforms standard Monte Carlo, but its relative efficiency decreases as the number of uncertain parameters increases from one to three. A robust GSA ameliorates this problem by reducing this number.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

4D ML reconstruction as a tool for volumetric PET-based treatment verification in ion beam radiotherapy

Purpose: An innovative strategy to improve the sensitivity of positron emission tomography (PET)-based treatment verification in ion beam radiotherapy is proposed. Methods: Low counting statistics PET images acquired during or shortly after the treatment (Measured PET) and a Monte Carlo estimate of the same PET images derived from the treatment plan (Expected PET) are considered as two frames of a 4D dataset. A 4D maximum likelihood reconstruction strategy was adapted to iteratively estimate the annihilation events distribution in a reference frame and the deformation motion fields that map it in the Expected PET and Measured PET frames. The outputs generated by the proposed strategy are as follows: (1) an estimate of the Measured PET with an image quality comparable to the Expected PET and (2) an estimate of the motion field mapping Expected PET to Measured PET. The details of the algorithm are presented and the strategy is preliminarily tested on analytically simulated datasets. Results: The algorithm demonstrates (1) robustness against noise, even in the worst conditions where 1.5 × 10{sup 4} true coincidences and a random fraction of 73% are simulated; (2) a proper sensitivity to different kind and grade of mismatches ranging between 1 and 10 mm; (3) robustness against bias due to incorrect washout modeling in the Monte Carlo simulation up to 1/3 of the original signal amplitude; and (4) an ability to describe the mismatch even in presence of complex annihilation distributions such as those induced by two perpendicular superimposed ion fields. Conclusions: The promising results obtained in this work suggest the applicability of the method as a quantification tool for PET-based treatment verification in ion beam radiotherapy. An extensive assessment of the proposed strategy on real treatment verification data is planned.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗