Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Model Inference”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,657 records · Page 92

Key Learnings from Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site - 2 (HFTS-2), Delaware Basin

Hydraulic fractures (HF) play a dominant role in oil and gas production from unconventional reservoirs, fracture characteristics, geometry, and extent are generally not well known and are typically inferred from various monitoring methods or subsurface models. The Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site-2 (HFTS-2) is a field-based research experiment performed in the Wolfcamp formation of the Permian (Delaware) Basin. HFTS-2, a unique joint industry program (JIP) that brings together government, academia, and industry, focused on field data acquisition and interpretation. The project has built a comprehensive HF research dataset that includes microseismic (MS), 1,500 ft of core, diagnostic formation injection tests (DFIT), fluid characterization, advanced logs, geochemistry, downhole gauges, varying completions, and permanent fiber optic (FO) cable in vertical and horizontal wells. These data were integrated and used to characterize HF geometry/dimensions and resulting depletion profiles, gain insights for completion design, and achieve a better understanding of parent well depletion effects on child well performance. The analysis and integration of the comprehensive HFTS-2 diagnostics dataset provide insights for optimal well placement and completions and improves understanding about the effects of parent well depletion. Furthermore, this dataset can be used to blind test and develop subsurface workflows for unconventional resources. Key learnings from HFTS-2 and the new technologies tested can easily be transferred to other unconventional plays.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Quantification of Uncertainty in Extreme Scale Computations (QUEST)

QUEST was a SciDAC Institute comprising Sandia National Laboratories, Los Alamos National Laboratory, the University of Southern California, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the University of Texas at Austin, and Duke University. The mission of QUEST is to: (1) develop a broad class of uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods/tools, and (2) provide UQ expertise and software to other SciDAC projects, thereby enabling/guiding their UQ activities. The USC effort centered on the development of reduced models and efficient algorithms for implementing various components of the UQ pipeline. USC personnel were responsible for the development of adaptive bases, adaptive quadrature, and reduced models to be used in estimation and inference.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Gauging Variational Inference

Computing partition function is the most important statistical inference task arising in applications of Graphical Models (GM). Since it is computationally intractable, approximate methods have been used to resolve the issue in practice, where meanfield (MF) and belief propagation (BP) are arguably the most popular and successful approaches of a variational type. In this paper, we propose two new variational schemes, coined Gauged-MF (G-MF) and Gauged-BP (G-BP), improving MF and BP, respectively. Both provide lower bounds for the partition function by utilizing the so-called gauge transformation which modifies factors of GM while keeping the partition function invariant. Moreover, we prove that both G-MF and G-BP are exact for GMs with a single loop of a special structure, even though the bare MF and BP perform badly in this case. Our extensive experiments, on complete GMs of relatively small size and on large GM (up-to 300 variables) confirm that the newly proposed algorithms outperform and generalize MF and BP.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Big Data For Operation and Maintenance Cost Reduction

The purpose of this research is to develop a first-of-a-kind framework for integrating Big Data capability into the daily activities of our current fleet of nuclear power plants. Big Data is traditionally defined as data sets with high volume, velocity, and heterogeneity, and the existing Big Data analytics capabilities are now widely popular in fields such as finance, weather, e-commerce, healthcare and sports. In the nuclear industry, while the volume and velocity of data may present computational challenges for existing analytics capabilities, data heterogeneity are seen to present the major challenge. This research project mainly focuses on incorporating the wide range of data heterogeneities in nuclear power plants into an integrated Big Data Analytics capability. The primary end-product of this project is a Big Data framework that is capable of dealing with the large volume and heterogeneity of the data found in nuclear power plants to extract timely and valuable information on equipment performance. The framework can generate system insights that are actionable relations between measurable impacts and the corresponding maintenance action plans and enable optimization of plant operation and maintenance based on the extracted information. The developed framework is capable of handling heterogeneous data including both image data and time-series sensor data. Specifically, this developed framework includes the following components. The first component is an overarching maintenance ontology which includes system insights required by maintenance optimization. The maintenance ontology interacts with other components in the developed framework. The second component handles Piping & Instrumentation Diagram (P&ID) data. It can be used to extract system components and their relations automatically from the P&IDs. This extracted information is stored in the first component, i.e., maintenance ontology, and is also used as input to the third component, i.e., a tool for generating the fault tree for the corresponding system. The generated fault tree in turn is stored in the ontology for assessing risk that is used as a criterion in maintenance policy optimization. The fourth component is a tool for inferring the parameters in the Markov degradation model for a nuclear system. It uses basic information from the ontology. The fifth component is a tool for assessing the degradation level using sensor measurement data, for example, pressure, flowrate. This tool can be used for determining corrective maintenance actions. The results obtained from components four and five are returned to the ontology. The sixth component of the framework is a tool for optimizing the maintenance policy for a nuclear system of interest. It takes certain basic information from the ontology, e.g., costs of maintenance actions and system failures, as input, and returns the optimal maintenance policy to the ontology. This tool can be used for determining predictive maintenance actions. A set of experiments have also been conducted to verify the algorithms developed in this project for nuclear system degradation monitoring. The experiments are based on four solenoid valves, similar to the ones used in nuclear power plants. The analyses based on the experimental data using two algorithms, i.e., the Randomized Window Decomposition (RWD) algorithm and the particle filtering algorithm, and the results are introduced in the report. The Big Data framework developed in this project can be used as a support tool in daily activities of plant operation and maintenance and will reduce current costs while maintaining or improving safety levels. Overall, the project will not only benefit existing reactors, however it will open new frontiers to realize the long overdue value of Big Data Analytics in the nuclear sphere.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Distance-Weighted Graph Neural Networks on FPGAs for Real-Time Particle Reconstruction in High Energy Physics

Graph neural networks have been shown to achieve excellent performance for several crucial tasks in particle physics, such as charged particle tracking, jet tagging, and clustering. An important domain for the application of these networks is the FGPA-based first layer of real-time data filtering at the CERN Large Hadron Collider, which has strict latency and resource constraints. We discuss how to design distance-weighted graph networks that can be executed with a latency of less than one μs on an FPGA. To do so, we consider a representative task associated to particle reconstruction and identification in a next-generation calorimeter operating at a particle collider. We use a graph network architecture developed for such purposes, and apply additional simplifications to match the computing constraints of Level-1 trigger systems, including weight quantization. Using the hls4ml library, we convert the compressed models into firmware to be implemented on an FPGA. Performance of the synthesized models is presented both in terms of inference accuracy and resource usage.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Discovery of a Metal-poor, Luminous Post-AGB Star that Failed the Third Dredge-up

Post-asymptotic giant branch (post-AGB) stars are known to be chemically diverse. In this paper we present the first observational evidence of a star that has failed the third dredge-up (TDU). J005252.87-722842.9 is an A-type ( T {sub eff} = 8250 ± 250 K) luminous (8200 ± 700 L {sub ⊙}) metal-poor ([Fe/H] = −1.18 ± 0.10) low-mass ( M {sub initial} ≈ 1.5–2.0 M {sub ⊙}) post-AGB star in the Small Magellanic Cloud. Through a systematic abundance study, using high-resolution optical spectra from UVES, we found that this likely post-AGB object shows an intriguing photospheric composition with no confirmed carbon-enhancement (upper limit of [C/Fe] < 0.50) nor enrichment of s -process elements. We derived an oxygen abundance of [O/Fe] = 0.29 ± 0.1. For Fe and O, we took the effects of nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium into account. We could not derive an upper limit for the nitrogen abundance as there are no useful nitrogen lines within our spectral coverage. The chemical pattern displayed by this object has not been observed in single or binary post-AGBs. Based on its derived stellar parameters and inferred evolutionary state, single-star nucleosynthesis models predict that this star should have undergone TDU episodes while on the AGB, and it should be carbon enriched. However, our observations are in contrast with these predictions. We identify two possible Galactic analogs that are likely to be post-AGB stars, but the lack of accurate distances (hence luminosities) to these objects does not allow us to confirm their post-AGB status. If they have low luminosities, then they are likely to be dusty post-RGB stars. The discovery of J005252.87-722842.9 reveals a new stellar evolutionary channel whereby a star evolves without any TDU episodes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Electromagnetic Counterpart of the Binary Neutron Star Merger LIGO/Virgo GW170817. V. Rising X-Ray Emission from an Off-axis Jet

Here, we report the discovery of rising X-ray emission from the binary neutron star merger event GW170817. This is the first detection of X-ray emission from a gravitational-wave (GW) source. Observations acquired with the Chandra X-ray Observatory ( CXO ) at $t\approx 2.3$ days post-merger reveal no significant emission, with ${L}_{x}\lesssim 3.2\times {10}^{38}\,\mathrm{erg}\,{{\rm{s}}}^{-1}$ (isotropic-equivalent). Continued monitoring revealed the presence of an X-ray source that brightened with time, reaching ${L}_{x}\approx 9\times {10}^{38}\,\mathrm{erg}\,{{\rm{s}}}^{-1}$ at $\approx 15.1$ days post-merger. We interpret these findings in the context of isotropic and collimated relativistic outflows (both on- and off-axis). We find that the broadband X-ray to radio observations are consistent with emission from a relativistic jet with kinetic energy ${E}_{k}\sim {10}^{49-50}\,\mathrm{erg}$, viewed off-axis with ${\theta }_{\mathrm{obs}}\sim 20^\circ \mbox{--}40^\circ $. Our models favor a circumbinary density $n\sim {10}^{-4}\mbox{--}{10}^{-2}\,{\mathrm{cm}}^{-3}$, depending on the value of the microphysical parameter ${\epsilon }_{B}={10}^{-4}\mbox{--}{10}^{-2}$. A central-engine origin of the X-ray emission is unlikely. Future X-ray observations at $t\gtrsim 100$ days, when the target will be observable again with the CXO , will provide additional constraints to solve the model degeneracies and test our predictions. Our inferences on ${\theta }_{\mathrm{obs}}$ are testable with GW information on GW170817 from advanced LIGO/Virgo on the binary inclination.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluation of a self-aspirating local total enthalpy probe in a low-density arc-heated hypersonic wind tunnel

A shock-swallowing, self-aspirating, local total enthalpy probe has been evaluated in a low density nonequilibrium, hypervelocity airstream. The probe, which incorporated an air gap to separate the internal and external cooling passages, was tested in an electric archeated wind tunnel at an average Mach number of 11.7 and an average Reynolds number per meter of 57,000. The free stream enthalpy probe data are compared with bulk calorimeter measurements of total enthalpy at the beginning of the gas expansion and with local total enthalpy inferred from a theoretical nonequilibrium gas expansion model by using free stream velocity measurements obtained from a mass flow probe. The three techniques are in relative agreement at the lower enthalpies. However, at the higher enthalpies, the enthalpy probe data lie considerably below the other data. This low data may be caused by the chemical and vibrational energy frozen in the flow not being sensed by the probe. Other problems associated with the shock-swallowing total enthalpy probe are discussed, and recommendations for improving the probe performance are presented.

Guy, R. W.↗

Estimates of the size of the particles in the rings of Saturn and their cosmogonic implications

Observations are discussed which are consistent with the ring particles having a very high single scattering albedo at radio wavelengths, with multiple scattering effects being important. Comparison of scattering calculations for ice and silicate particles with the radio and radar observations imply a mean particle radius of about 1 cm. The ice bands observed in the near-infrared reflectivity spectra of the rings are formed by scattering within a microstructure on the surface of the ring particles, with the scattering centers being 25 to 125 micrometers in size. The Poynting-Robertson effect has caused a significant spiraling-in of the ring particles, probably resulting in a broadening of the rings. The inferred mean size is consistent with a model in which meteoroid impacts have caused a substantial reduction in the mean particle size from its initial value.

Pollack, J. B.↗

Calculation of shock-separated turbulent boundary layers

Numerical solutions of the complete, time-averaged conservation equations using several eddy-viscosity models for the Reynolds shear stress to close the equations are compared with experimental measurements in a compressible, turbulent separated flow. An efficient time-splitting, explicit difference scheme was used to solve the two-dimensional conservation equations. The experiment used for comparison was a turbulent boundary layer that was separated by an incident shock wave in a Mach 2.93 flow with a unit Reynolds number of 5.7 x 10 to the seventh power m. Comparisons of predicted and experimental values of surface pressure, shear stress along the wall, and velocity profiles are shown. One of the tested eddy-viscosity models which allows the shear stress to be out of equilibrium with the mean flow produces substantially better agreement with the experimental measurements than the simpler models. A tool is thereby provided for inferring additional information about the flow, such as static pressures in the stream, which might not be directly obtainable from experiments.

Baldwin, B. S.↗

The isotopes of neon in the galactic cosmic rays

The paper examines the results obtained by the University of Chicago instrument on board the IMP 7 satellite used to measure the abundances of Ne-20 and Ne-22 in the galactic cosmic rays during 1973-1977, over the general energy range of 60-230 MeV per nucleon. It is reported that the instrument shows a mass resolution of 0.7 amu(sigma) which was confirmed by calibrating a backup instrument at the LBL Bevalac with separated beams of neon isotopes. Through the use of standard solar modulation and cosmic-ray propagation models, the cosmic-ray source ratio inferred is Ne-22/Ne-20 = 0.38 = or -0.07 which is significantly greater than the present solar system ratio. It is concluded that propagation effects or cross-section uncertainties cannot account for such a large abundance of Ne-22, and thus this measurement provides evidence that the cosmic rays come from a source region where the Ne-22 abundance is substantially greater than in solar system material.

Garcia-Munoz, M.↗

Auroral electron acceleration and atmospheric interactions - /1/ Rocket-borne observations and /2/ scattering calculations

Electron energy and pitch angle spectra are obtained by an instrumented rocket payload launched across a pre-midnight auroral arc. The interaction of the incident electron beam with the atmosphere is described through transport theory including inelastic and multiple-elastic scattering of electrons by neutrals. A two-stream approximation to the electron transport equation is used to compute the hemispherically averaged upcoming electron transport that resulted from the measured downcoming intensity. The model of Evans (1974) is employed to infer a primary electron spectrum within the discrete arc.

Pulliam, D. M.↗

Tectonic evolution of terrestrial planets

The tectonic style of each terrestrial planet, referring to the thickness and division of its lithosphere, can be inferred from surface features and compared to models of planetary thermal history. Factors governing planetary tectonic evolution are planet diameter, chemistry, and external and internal heat sources, all of which determine how a planet generates and rids itself of heat. The earth is distinguished by its distinct, mobile plates, which are recycled into the mantle and show large-scale lateral movements, whereas the moon, Mars, and Mercury are single spherical shells, showing no evidence of destruction and renewal of the lithospheric plates over the latter 80% of their history. Their smaller volume to surface area results in a more rapid cooling, formation, and thickening of the lithosphere. Vertical tectonics, due to lithospheric loading, is controlled by the local thickness and rheology of the lithosphere. Further studies of Venus, which displays both the craterlike surface features of the one-plate planets, and the rifts and plateaus of earth, may indicate which factors are most important in controlling the tectonic evolution of terrestrial planets.

Head, J. W.↗

High velocity gas outflow from the nova-like variable LSI 55 deg -8

Low and high dispersion International Ultraviolet Explorer observations and measurements of the optical brightness of LSI 55-8 taken on 5 December, 1981 are analyzed. The presence of the C IV resonance doublet showing a variable P Cygni type of profile with a blue shifted absorption component along with the blue shifted absorption features of the high temperature ions indicate the existence of outflowing hot plasma (i.e., a wind). An upper limit of the mass outflow rate was established from the shot wavelength edge of the C IV absorption. The normalized C IV profile is shown o be variable with the largest changes occurring in the relative strength and shape of the emission component. These changes appear to be systematic, and may be associated with the changing projection of the outflowing hot plasma against the disk as a function of orbital motion. LSI 55-8 demonstrates most of the spectral and photometric characteristics exhibited by the nova like, UX UMa type variables, as well as with the dwarf novae in outburst or standstill. The high accretion rate inferred from fitting the Williams theoretical disk model fluxes to IUE data support the hypothesis that LSI 55-8 and related nova like systems are in a state of prolonged outburst.

Guinan, E. F.↗

The role of S in the evolution of the parental cores of the iron meteorites

The S contents of iron meteorite parent bodies are estimated on the basis of cosmochemical relationships to undifferentiated meteorites, the results are compared to observations on the major magmatic iron meteorite groups, and evidence is presented that S/Ni ratios in their parent melts were much lower than those inferred for the parent body. Several alternative models to account for the discrepancy are offered, including volatilization of S from the IIAB parent body, liquid immiscibility, and metastable liquid layers produced by episodic melting. Finally, the fate of the S-rich meteoroidal material is discussed, as well as the question of why it seems to be missing from meteorite collections.

Kracher, A.↗

W-shaped occultation signatures - Inference of entwined particle orbits in charged planetary ringlets

A model for the ringlets of Saturn is proposed where concentration of material near the inner and outer radial edges of the ringlets is a natural consequence of particles in entwined elliptical orbits, with the same particles alternately defining both edges. The existence of a collisionless state where particles fly along entwined paths in a compressed helical formation on and within a toroidal surface whose meridional cross section is a very thin ellipse is explained. The cancellation of strong oblateness perturbations by an extremely weak force normal to the orbit planes and directed primarily outward from the major axis of the meridional cross section of the torus is shown, and the possibility that electric repulsion of like-charged particles could provide the expansion force preventing cross-sectional collapse is examined. The model features a large stability domain within which orbital inclinations and arguments of periapse oscillate but do not progress. Features of the model that can be tested experimentally are mentioned.

Eshleman, V. R.↗

Loss of fine-scale surface texture in Viking Orbiter images and implications for the inferred distribution of debris mantles

A numerical, self-consistent model is defined for filtering out the effects of haze which cause a loss of fine-scale features in Viking Orbiter imagery of the Mars surface. Increased definition is necessary if the visual data is to serve for identifying terrain features which indicate the presence of volatiles such as ice. Crater images are used to calculate the change in atmospheric optical properties that accounts for alterations in the discriminability of crater features. Modulation transfer functions are developed for the image obscuration contributions of the atmosphere and the camera lens, thereby quantifying the smallest crater (6-7 pixels) that can be seen. The radiance of the viewed scene is modeled, and an atmospheric obscuration parameter is obtained as a function of the ratio of the atmospheric and surface obscuration contributions to the radiance at the detector. The contribution of the surface alone can then be identified. The model is applied in calculations of the total number of observed craters for comparisons with the expected number of craters, and to assess the potential for using the Viking cameras to characterize the geomorphic properties of various regions of the Mars surface.

Kahn, R.↗

Gravity mismodelling on TOPEX orbit determination

Gravity mismodeling limits the dynamic orbit determination accuracy of TOPEX which requires an altitude accuracy of about 15 cm or better. This paper provides an assessment of this effect for a dynamic GPS tracking scheme, and investigates a nondynamic GPS tracking technique that eliminates the problem. Analysis indicates that TOPEX altitude error could be affected by as much as 30-40 cm when dynamic differential GPS tracking is used, although efforts now underway to improve the gravity model could reduce this. With the nondynamic technique, the positional change of TOPEX is inferred from the accurate, continuous GPS carrier phase measurements rather than from a dynamic model which is prone to gravity error. TOPEX altitude accuracy better than 15 cm is attainable with nondynamic tracking over a few hours.

Wu, S.-C.↗