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DOE OSTI2023

Modeling support for the development of material surveillance specimens and procedures

This report describes modeling and simulation activities performed at Argonne National Laboratory supporting the development of passively actuated mechanical test articles for material surveillance in Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs). These test articles are a critical technology in formulating material surveillance programs for future MSRs to monitor the degradation in the structural properties of the materials in critical plant components. The main activity described in this report is the development of a method for inferring the amount of mechanical damage a test article has experienced during some duration of exposure to plant thermal and environmental conditions, using only mechanical test data collected from the test articles before and after exposure. The basic approach is to develop a model of the test article, including a description of mechanical degradation through continuum damage mechanics, and then use this model to cast the problem of inferring mechanical degradation in the test article materials into a shooting problem for a set of ordinary differential equations. We can then solve the shooting problem to determine the amount of damage accumulated in the sample. The report also details a few miscellaneous simulation studies completed at Argonne to support the development of the test articles themselves at Idaho National Laboratory.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2015

UNSUPERVISED TRANSIENT LIGHT CURVE ANALYSIS VIA HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN INFERENCE

Historically, light curve studies of supernovae (SNe) and other transient classes have focused on individual objects with copious and high signal-to-noise observations. In the nascent era of wide field transient searches, objects with detailed observations are decreasing as a fraction of the overall known SN population, and this strategy sacrifices the majority of the information contained in the data about the underlying population of transients. A population level modeling approach, simultaneously fitting all available observations of objects in a transient sub-class of interest, fully mines the data to infer the properties of the population and avoids certain systematic biases. We present a novel hierarchical Bayesian statistical model for population level modeling of transient light curves, and discuss its implementation using an efficient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo technique. As a test case, we apply this model to the Type IIP SN sample from the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey, consisting of 18,837 photometric observations of 76 SNe, corresponding to a joint posterior distribution with 9176 parameters under our model. Our hierarchical model fits provide improved constraints on light curve parameters relevant to the physical properties of their progenitor stars relative to modeling individual light curves alone. Moreover, we directly evaluate the probability for occurrence rates of unseen light curve characteristics from the model hyperparameters, addressing observational biases in survey methodology. We view this modeling framework as an unsupervised machine learning technique with the ability to maximize scientific returns from data to be collected by future wide field transient searches like LSST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Support for Reactor Operators in Case of Cyber-Security Threats (NEUP Final Report)

Increasing use of digital technology in nuclear power plants (NPPs) poses cyber-security as a crucial threat to public safety and to continuous energy production. Cyber-security risks are comprised of complex known and unknown interactions between various entities, system vulnerabilities, network protocols, human users and malicious attacks. There is little understanding or research geared towards plant operators’ response under cyber-security threats and operational procedures to cope with such threats. This is particularly critical when a cyber-security event masquerades as a safety incident or an evolving accident. Instead of leading operators to the remediation of the accident, the masked cyber event may lead them to circumvent the safety mechanisms of the plant. Given these challenges, the objective of this project is to develop a tool to characterize abnormal NPP events as “cyber” or “safety” incidents, and to further develop this tool as a real-time operator aid to assist in response to the incident. This NEUP Final Report summarizes the research efforts towards the above goals and the results in the following three aspects. First, a methodology for classifying abnormal NPP events as cyber-attacks or safety incidents was developed. This provides the basis for responding to potential cyber-attacks. In this methodology, the causal relationships between various variables (i.e., physical variables, network variables, and control variables) for a nuclear system under consideration are modeled using dynamic Bayesian networks. Based on observations of certain variables (i.e., the evidence), inference is performed to identify the state of hidden variables, which helps indicate the occurrence of cyber-attacks or safety incidents. The proposed methodology was applied to the full scope NPP simulator system at The Ohio State University as a case study. The result shows that the proposed methodology is capable of distinguishing between cyber-attacks and safety incidents. Second, a game-theoretic approach for responding to cyber-attacks on nuclear power plants was developed. This is the second major goal of the project, and the method is used to recommend optimal responses to reactor operators in the case of cyber-attacks. We consider two cases in this research. In the first case, the interaction between the defender (i.e., the reactor operator) and the attacker is modeled as a two-player, nonzero-sum, Markov game with an infinite time horizon. In the second case, we consider a semi-Markov game between the defender and the attacker within a finite time horizon. The model in the second case enables us to consider the time sensitive response of the defender. In each case, the method for deriving the Nash equilibrium is developed. The Nash Equilibrium of the game provides the valid prediction of both players’ actions because no single player can benefit from unilaterally deviating from the equilibrium policy if the other player adheres to his/hers, hence it provides the best response of the defender to cyber-attacks. The proposed method in each case is demonstrated through a simplified benchmark digital feedwater control system. Third, a prototype display is developed to integrate the above information. The prototype display depicts the communication information to the operator and incorporates the cyber-security tool developed by the team into the interface. It consists of the regular display in current control rooms, as well as a panel used to indicate the occurrence of cyber-attacks or safety events and a panel used to guide the operator’s response to detected cyber-attacks.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Galactic non-Gaussian foregrounds on CMB lensing measurements

Weak gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) has been established as a robust and powerful observable for precision cosmology. However, the impact of Galactic foregrounds, which has been studied less extensively than many other potential systematics, could in principle pose a problem for CMB lensing measurements. These foregrounds are inherently non-Gaussian and hence might mimic the characteristic signal that lensing estimators are designed to measure. We present an analysis that quantifies the level of contamination from Galactic dust in lensing measurements, focusing particularly on measurements with the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and the Simons Observatory. We employ a whole suite of foreground models and study the contamination of lensing measurements with both individual frequency channels and multifrequency combinations. We test the sensitivity of different estimators to the level of foreground non-Gaussianity and the dependence on sky fraction and multipole range used. We find that Galactic foregrounds do not present a problem for the Atacama Cosmology Telescope experiment (the bias in the inferred CMB lensing power spectrum amplitude remains below 0.3σ). For Simons Observatory, not all foreground models remain below this threshold. Although our results are conservative upper limits, they suggest that further work on characterizing dust biases and determining the impact of mitigation methods is well motivated, especially for the largest sky fractions.

cosmic microwave background↗
DOE OSTI2026

Study of Key 57 Ni ⁢(𝑝,𝛾)⁢ 58 Cu Resonances to Understand 44 Ti Nucleosynthesis in Supernovae

An important validation of nucleosynthesis models of core-collapse supernovae is the comparison of radioisotope predictions to abundances inferred from observations of 𝛾 rays emitted in remnants. One such isotope, 44 Ti, is especially sensitive to the 57 Ni ⁢(𝑝,𝛾)⁢ 58 Cu reaction rate. Despite this importance, no experimentally constrained rate exists for this reaction. It is thus crucial to determine this rate. GRETINA ORRUBA: Dual Detectors for Experimental Structure Studies (GODDESS) was used along with the first use of the Enge split-pole spectrograph at Notre Dame to measure structure properties of 58 Cu via the 58 Ni ⁢( 3 He,𝑡)⁢ 58 Cu reaction. Here, the combined analysis of these complementary data sets allows for precise determination of 58 Cu level energies, and spins are constrained from analysis of the 𝛾-ray decay. 44 Ti yields were found to change by over 25% compared to previous estimates in model calculations using the new experimentally constrained reaction rate.

energy levels↗
DOE OSTI2021

The effect of areal density asymmetries on scattered neutron spectra in ICF implosions

Scattered neutron spectroscopy is a diagnostic technique commonly used to measure areal density in inertial confinement fusion experiments. Deleterious areal density asymmetries modify the shape of the scattered neutron spectrum. In this work, a novel analysis is developed, which can be used to fit the shape change. This will allow experimental scattered neutron spectroscopy to directly infer the amplitude and mode of the areal density asymmetries, with little sensitivity to confounding factors that affect other diagnostics for areal density. The model is tested on spectra produced by a neutron transport calculation with both isotropic and anisotropic primary fusion neutron sources. Multiple lines of sight are required to infer the areal density distribution over the whole sphere—we investigate the error propagation and optimal detector arrangement associated with the inference of mode 1 asymmetries.

Crilly, A. J. (ORCID:0000000204299332)↗
DOE OSTI2017

Simple spatial scaling rules behind complex cities

Although most of wealth and innovation have been the result of human interaction and cooperation, we are not yet able to quantitatively predict the spatial distributions of three main elements of cities: population, roads, and socioeconomic interactions. By a simple model mainly based on spatial attraction and matching growth mechanisms, we reveal that the spatial scaling rules of these three elements are in a consistent framework, which allows us to use any single observation to infer the others. All numerical and theoretical results are consistent with empirical data from ten representative cities. In addition, our model can also provide a general explanation of the origins of the universal super- and sub-linear aggregate scaling laws and accurately predict kilometre-level socioeconomic activity. Our work opens a new avenue for uncovering the evolution of cities in terms of the interplay among urban elements, and it has a broad range of applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

The impact of socio-technical communication styles on the diversity and innovation potential of global science collaboratories

Emerging cyber-infrastructure tools are enabling scientists to transparently co-develop, share, and communicate about real-time diverse forms of knowledge artifacts. In these environments, communication preferences of scientists are posited as an important factor affecting innovation capacity and robustness of social and knowledge network structures. Scientific knowledge creation in such communities is called global participatory science (GPS). Recently, using agent-based modeling and collective action theory as a basis, a complex adaptive social communication network model (CollectiveInnoSim) is implemented. This work leverages CollectiveInnoSim implementing communication preferences of scientists. Social network metrics and knowledge production patterns are used as proxy metrics to infer innovation potential of emergent knowledge and collaboration networks. The objective is to present the underlying communication dynamics of GPS in a form of computational model and delineate the impacts of various communication preferences of scientists on innovation potential of the collaboration network. Ultimately, the insight gained can help policy-makers to design GPS environments and promote innovation.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2015

THE PANCHROMATIC HUBBLE ANDROMEDA TREASURY. VIII. A WIDE-AREA, HIGH-RESOLUTION MAP OF DUST EXTINCTION IN M31

We map the distribution of dust in M31 at 25 pc resolution using stellar photometry from the Panchromatic Hubble Andromeda Treasury survey. The map is derived with a new technique that models the near-infrared color–magnitude diagram (CMD) of red giant branch (RGB) stars. The model CMDs combine an unreddened foreground of RGB stars with a reddened background population viewed through a log-normal column density distribution of dust. Fits to the model constrain the median extinction, the width of the extinction distribution, and the fraction of reddened stars in each 25 pc cell. The resulting extinction map has a factor of ≳4 times better resolution than maps of dust emission, while providing a more direct measurement of the dust column. There is superb morphological agreement between the new map and maps of the extinction inferred from dust emission by Draine et al. However, the widely used Draine and Li dust models overpredict the observed extinction by a factor of ∼2.5, suggesting that M31's true dust mass is lower and that dust grains are significantly more emissive than assumed in Draine et al. The observed factor of ∼2.5 discrepancy is consistent with similar findings in the Milky Way by the Plank Collaboration et al., but we find a more complex dependence on parameters from the Draine and Li dust models. We also show that the the discrepancy with the Draine et al. map is lowest where the current interstellar radiation field has a harder spectrum than average. We discuss possible improvements to the CMD dust mapping technique, and explore further applications in both M31 and other galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying microbial control of soil organic matter dynamics at macrosystem scales

Soil organic matter (SOM) stocks, decomposition and persistence are largely the product of controls that act locally. Yet the controls are shaped and interact at multiple spatiotemporal scales, from which macrosystem patterns in SOM emerge. Theory on SOM turnover recognizes the resulting spatial and temporal conditionality in the effect sizes of controls that play out across macrosystems, and couples them through evolutionary and community assembly processes. For example, climate history shapes plant functional traits, which in turn interact with contemporary climate to influence SOM dynamics. Selection and assembly also shape the functional traits of soil decomposer communities, but it is less clear how in turn these traits influence temporal macrosystem patterns in SOM turnover. Here, we review evidence that establishes the expectation that selection and assembly should generate decomposer communities across macrosystems that have distinct functional effects on SOM dynamics. Representation of this knowledge in soil biogeochemical models affects the magnitude and direction of projected SOM responses under global change. Yet there is high uncertainty and low confidence in these projections. To address these issues, we make the case that a coordinated set of empirical practices are required which necessitate (1) greater use of statistical approaches in biogeochemistry that are suited to causative inference; (2) long-term, macrosystem-scale, observational and experimental networks to reveal conditionality in effect sizes, and embedded correlation, in controls on SOM turnover; and (3) use of multiple measurement grains to capture local- and macroscale variation in controls and outcomes, to avoid obscuring causative understanding through data aggregation. Here, when employed together, along with process-based models to synthesize knowledge and guide further empirical work, we believe these practices will rapidly advance understanding of microbial controls on SOM and improve carbon cycle projections that guide policies on climate adaptation and mitigation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Joint Bayesian Inference for Near-Surface Explosion Yield and Height-of-Burst

Forensic capabilities to understand chemical and nuclear explosions are greatly aided by an accurate estimate of explosive yield with uncertainty. The relationship between explosive size and geophysical observations of seismic, acoustic, and optical waves can be exploited to provide an estimate of yield. Any near-surface yield estimate is complicated by the surface interaction, so an estimate for the explosion height-of-burst is necessarily included in the relationship. Additionally, the relationship dictates a trade-off between estimates of yield and height-of-burst. Fortunately, the surface interaction for each type of observation is different, which breaks the trade-off, and the inclusion of height-of-burst with multiple data types improves yield estimation. We define simple parametric forward models to relate seismoäcoustoöptic observations from a data set of known explosive yields and height-of-bursts. The parameters of the models and a prediction for the yield and height-of-burst of a new event can then be estimated given new observations via Bayesian inference. We report posterior distribution estimates of the parametric models using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling technique. These models are then used to predict the yield and height-of-burst of SUGAR, a historical near-surface nuclear explosion, using its reported historical observations. The reported yield of 1.2 ktonne Trinitrotoluene (TNT)-equivalent (Department of Energy, 2015) is within the estimated posterior. Yield uncertainty can be estimated from the spread of the posterior, which is between 0.9 and 2.1 ktonne TNT-equivalent. The posterior for height-of-burst has a wider range between 10 m below and 8 m above ground that includes the true height-of-burst of 1 m.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

DriveSense: A Noise-Resilient Framework for Driving Mode Identification

Accurate drive mode classification is essential for enhancing the reliability and predictive maintenance of heavy-duty electric trucks. This study proposes a novel fuzzy logic-based framework, DriveSense, for real-time drive mode classification, addressing key challenges such as sensor noise, transitional behaviors, and computational efficiency. The proposed approach integrates a two-stage filtering pipeline, combining adaptive outlier removal and a dynamic Kalman filter to enhance data quality. A fuzzy inference system with smoothened trapezoidal membership functions is then applied to classify driving modes into standstill, constant speed, acceleration, and deceleration while mitigating the effects of noise and edge cases. Performance evaluation using real-world and simulated drive cycles demonstrates significant improvements in classification accuracy (up to 97.8%), F1-score (up to 0.97), and robustness against noise, while reducing false positives. Comparative analysis against baseline models, demonstrates DriveSense’s superior accuracy and generalizability across diverse driving patterns. The framework’s lightweight and interpretable fuzzy inference engine operates with low computational latency, ensuring compatibility with real-time embedded systems typical of heavy-duty electric trucks. Moreover, DriveSense models transitional behaviors through overlapping fuzzy sets and adaptive borderline classification logic, enabling smooth identification of subtle shifts such as rolling stops or gradual deceleration. These results highlight DriveSense’s potential to enhance predictive maintenance strategies, reduce downtime, and support scalable, fleet-wide diagnostics.

Kumar, Praveen [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗
DOE OSTI2017

Cosmological implications of primordial black holes

The possibility that a relevant fraction of the dark matter might be comprised of Primordial Black Holes (PBHs) has been seriously reconsidered after LIGO's detection of a ∼ 30 M {sub ⊙} binary black holes merger. Despite the strong interest in the model, there is a lack of studies on possible cosmological implications and effects on cosmological parameters inference. We investigate correlations with the other standard cosmological parameters using cosmic microwave background observations, finding significant degeneracies, especially with the tilt of the primordial power spectrum and the sound horizon at radiation drag. However, these degeneracies can be greatly reduced with the inclusion of small scale polarization data. We also explore if PBHs as dark matter in simple extensions of the standard ΛCDM cosmological model induces extra degeneracies, especially between the additional parameters and the PBH's ones. Finally, we present cosmic microwave background constraints on the fraction of dark matter in PBHs, not only for monochromatic PBH mass distributions but also for popular extended mass distributions. Our results show that extended mass distribution's constraints are tighter, but also that a considerable amount of constraining power comes from the high-ℓ polarization data. Moreover, we constrain the shape of such mass distributions in terms of the correspondent constraints on the PBH mass fraction.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Deriving Physical Properties from Broadband Photometry with Prospector: Description of the Model and a Demonstration of its Accuracy Using 129 Galaxies in the Local Universe

Broadband photometry of galaxies measures an unresolved mix of complex stellar populations, gas, and dust. Interpreting these data is a challenge for models: many studies have shown that properties derived from modeling galaxy photometry are uncertain by a factor of two or more, and yet answering key questions in the field now requires higher accuracy than this. Here, we present a new model framework specifically designed for these complexities. Our model, Prospector- α , includes dust attenuation and re-radiation, a flexible attenuation curve, nebular emission, stellar metallicity, and a six-component nonparametric star formation history. The flexibility and range of the parameter space, coupled with Monte Carlo Markov chain sampling within the Prospector inference framework, is designed to provide unbiased parameters and realistic error bars. We assess the accuracy of the model with aperture-matched optical spectroscopy, which was excluded from the fits. We compare spectral features predicted solely from fits to the broadband photometry to the observed spectral features. Our model predicts H α luminosities with a scatter of ∼0.18 dex and an offset of ∼0.1 dex across a wide range of morphological types and stellar masses. This agreement is remarkable, as the H α luminosity is dependent on accurate star formation rates, dust attenuation, and stellar metallicities. The model also accurately predicts dust-sensitive Balmer decrements, spectroscopic stellar metallicities, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon mass fractions, and the age- and metallicity-sensitive features D{sub n}4000 and H δ . Although the model passes all these tests, we caution that we have not yet assessed its performance at higher redshift or the accuracy of recovered stellar masses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reliable extrapolation of deep neural operators informed by physics or sparse observations

Deep neural operators can learn nonlinear mappings between infinite-dimensional function spaces via deep neural networks. As promising surrogate solvers of partial differential equations (PDEs) for real-time prediction, deep neural operators such as deep operator networks (DeepONets) provide a new simulation paradigm in science and engineering. Pure data-driven neural operators and deep learning models, in general, are usually limited to interpolation scenarios, where new predictions utilize inputs within the support of the training set. However, in the inference stage of real-world applications, the input may lie outside the support, i.e., extrapolation is required, which may result to large errors and unavoidable failure of deep learning models. Here, we address this challenge of extrapolation for deep neural operators. First, we systematically investigate the extrapolation behavior of DeepONets by quantifying the extrapolation complexity, via the 2-Wasserstein distance between two function spaces and propose a new strategy of bias–variance trade-off for extrapolation with respect to model capacity. Subsequently, we develop a complete workflow, including extrapolation determination, and we propose five reliable learning methods that guarantee a safe prediction under extrapolation by requiring additional information—the governing PDEs of the system or sparse new observations. The proposed methods are based on either fine-tuning a pre-trained DeepONet or multifidelity learning. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework for various types of parametric PDEs. Furthermore, our systematic comparisons provide practical guidelines for selecting a proper extrapolation method depending on the available information, desired accuracy, and required inference speed.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Dispersal-Based Microbial Community Assembly Decreases Biogeochemical Function

Ecological mechanisms influence relationships among microbial communities, which in turn impact biogeochemistry. In particular, microbial communities are assembled by deterministic (e.g., selection) and stochastic (e.g., dispersal) processes, and the relative balance of these two process types is hypothesized to alter the influence of microbial communities over biogeochemical function. We used an ecological simulation model to evaluate this hypothesis, defining biogeochemical function generically to represent any biogeochemical reaction of interest. We assembled receiving communities under different levels of dispersal from a source community that was assembled purely by selection. The dispersal scenarios ranged from no dispersal (i.e., selection-only) to dispersal rates high enough to overwhelm selection (i.e., homogenizing dispersal). We used an aggregate measure of community fitness to infer a given community’s biogeochemical function relative to other communities. We also used ecological null models to further link the relative influence of deterministic assembly to function. We found that increasing rates of dispersal decrease biogeochemical function by increasing the proportion of maladapted taxa in a local community. Niche breadth was also a key determinant of biogeochemical function, suggesting a tradeoff between the function of generalist and specialist species. Finally, we show that microbial assembly processes exert greater influence over biogeochemical function when there is variation in the relative contributions of dispersal and selection among communities. Taken together, our results highlight the influence of spatial processes on biogeochemical function and indicate the need to account for such effects in models that aim to predict biogeochemical function under future environmental scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Separating the effects of phenology and diffuse radiation on gross primary productivity in winter wheat

Gross primary productivity (GPP) has been reported to increase with the fraction of diffuse solar radiation, for a given total irradiance. The correlation between GPP and diffuse radiation suggests effects of diffuse radiation on canopy light-use efficiency, but potentially confounding effects of vegetation phenology have not been fully explored. We applied several approaches to control for phenology, using 8 years of eddy-covariance measurements of winter wheat in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The apparent enhancement of daily GPP due to diffuse radiation was reduced from 260% to 75%, after subsampling over the peak growing season or by subtracting a 15 day moving average of GPP, suggesting a role of phenology. The diffuse radiation effect was further reduced to 22% after normalizing GPP by a spectral reflectance index to account for phenological variations in leaf area index LAI and canopy photosynthetic capacity. Canopy photosynthetic capacity covaries with diffuse fraction at a given solar irradiance at this site because both factors are dependent on day of year or solar zenith angle. Using a two-leaf Sun-shaded canopy radiative transfer model, we confirmed that the effects of phenological variations in photosynthetic capacity can appear qualitatively similar to the effects of diffuse radiation on GPP and therefore can be difficult to distinguish using observations. The importance of controlling for phenology when inferring diffuse radiation effects on GPP raises new challenges and opportunities for using radiation measurements to improve carbon cycle models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

CHMMPP: A c++ library for constrained Hidden Markov Models

SAND2024-13027O The CHMMPP: A c++ Library for Constrained Hidden Markov Models (HMM) software supports the analysis of multivariate time series data to detect patterns using HMM. Many applications involve the detection and characterization of hidden or latent states in a complex system using observable states and variables. This software supports inference of latent states integrating both an HMM and application-specific constraints that reflect known relationships in hidden states. The CHMMPP software supports application-specific and generic methods for constrained inference. This includes a framework for customized Viterbi methods, constrained inference of hidden states with A* and integer programming methods, and various constraint-informed methods for learning HMM model parameters. CHMMPP focuses on supporting generic methods that enable the agile expression of complex sets of constraints that naturally arise in many real-world applications.

Hart, William↗