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DOE OSTI2020

Cosmic Reionization On Computers: The Galaxy-Halo Connection between $5 \leq z \leq10$

We explore the connection between the stellar component of galaxies and their host halos during the epoch of reionization (5 ≤ z ≤ 10) using the CROC (Cosmic Reionization on Computers) simulations. We compare simulated galaxies with observations and find that CROC underpredicts the abundance of luminous galaxies when compared to observed UV luminosity functions, and analogously the most massive galaxies when compared to observed stellar mass functions. We can trace the deficit of star formation to high redshifts, where the slope of the star formation rate to stellar mass relation is consistent with observations, but the normalization is systematically low. This results in a star formation rate density and stellar mass density that are systematically offset from observations. However, the less luminous or lower stellar mass objects have luminosities and stellar masses that agree fairly well with observational data. We explore the stellar-to-halo mass ratio (SHMR), a key quantity that is difficult to measure at high redshifts and that models do not consistently predict. In CROC, the SHMR decreases with redshift, a trend opposite to some abundance-matching studies. These discrepancies uncover where future effort should be focused in order to improve the fidelity of modeling cosmic reionization. We also compare the CROC galaxy bias with observational measurements using Lyman-break galaxy samples, finding reasonable consistency.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Core Mass Estimates in Strong Lensing Galaxy Clusters: A Comparison between Masses Obtained from Detailed Lens Models, Single-halo Lens Models, and Einstein Radii

The core mass of galaxy clusters is both an important anchor of the radial mass distribution profile and probe of structure formation. With thousands of strong lensing galaxy clusters being discovered by current and upcoming surveys, timely, efficient, and accurate core mass estimates are needed. Here, we assess the results of two efficient methods to estimate the core mass of strong lensing clusters: the mass enclosed by the Einstein radius (M(<θ E ) where θ E is approximated from arc positions; Remolina González et al. 2020), and single-halo lens model (M SHM ; Remolina González et al. 2021), against measurements from publicly available detailed lens models (M DLM ) of the same clusters. We use data from the Sloan Giant Arc Survey, the Reionization Lensing Cluster Survey, the Hubble Frontier Fields, and the Cluster Lensing and Supernova Survey with Hubble. We find a scatter of 18.2% (8.2%) with a bias of -7.1% (1.0%) between M corr (<θ arcs ) (M SHM ) and M DLM . Last, we compare the statistical uncertainties measured in this work to those from simulations. This work demonstrates the successful application of these methods to observational data. As the effort to efficiently model the mass distribution of strong lensing galaxy clusters continues, we need fast, reliable methods to advance the field.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1999

Recent Development on O(+) - O Collision Frequency and Ionosphere-Thermosphere Coupling

The collision frequency between an oxygen atom and its singly charged ion controls the momentum transfer between the ionosphere and the thermosphere. There has been a long standing discrepancy, extending over a decade, between the theoretical and empirical determination of this frequency: the empirical value of this frequency exceeded the theoretical value by a factor of 1.7. Recent improvements in theory were obtained by using accurate oxygen ion-oxygen atom potential energy curves, and partial wave quantum mechanical calculations. We now have applied three independent statistical methods to the observational data, obtained at the MIT/Millstone Hill Observatory, consisting of two sets A and B. These methods give results consistent with each other, and together with the recent theoretical improvements, bring the ratio close to unity, as it should be. The three statistical methods lead to an average for the ratio of the empirical to the theoretical values equal to 0.98, with an uncertainty of +/-8%, resolving the old discrepancy between theory and observation. The Hines statistics, and the lognormal distribution statistics, both give lower and upper bounds for the Set A equal to 0.89 and 1.02, respectively. The related bounds for the Set B are 1.06 and 1.17. The average values of these bounds thus bracket the ideal value of the ratio which should be equal to unity. The main source of uncertainties are errors in the profile of the oxygen atom density, which is of the order of 11%. An alternative method to find the oxygen atom density is being suggested.

Omidvar, K.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Simulated KWAJEX Convective Systems Using a 2D and 3D Cloud Resolving Model and Their Comparisons with Radar Observations

The 1999 Kwajalein Atoll field experiment (KWAJEX), one of several major TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) field experiments, has successfully obtained a wealth of information and observation data on tropical convective systems over the western Central Pacific region. In this paper, clouds and convective systems that developed during three active periods (Aug 7-12, Aug 17-21, and Aug 29-Sep 13) around Kwajalein Atoll site are simulated using both 2D and 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) models. Based on numerical results, the clouds and cloud systems are generally unorganized and short lived. These features are validated by radar observations that support the model results. Both the 2D and 3D simulated rainfall amounts and their stratiform contribution as well as the heat, water vapor, and moist static energy budgets are examined for the three convective episodes. Rainfall amounts are quantitatively similar between the two simulations, but the stratiform contribution is considerably larger in the 2D simulation. Regardless of dimension, fo all three cases, the large-scale forcing and net condensation are the two major physical processes that account for the evolution of the budgets with surface latent heat flux and net radiation solar and long-wave radiation)being secondary processes. Quantitative budget differences between 2D and 3D as well as between various episodes will be detailed.Morover, simulated radar signatures and Q1/Q2 fields from the three simulations are compared to each other and with radar and sounding observations.

Shie, Chung-Lin↗

NASA NTRS2014

Attendee Response to Guiding Questions of the September 2014 DOE Workshop on North Slope of Alaska Priorities

We advocate for several modeling approaches suitable to prove understanding of and capability to model aerosol behavior in nucleating droplets and ice and to model regional cloud systems at the mesoscale. The full complement of data that is ideal for particular study types is increasingly well understood; the ASR ISDAC Science Plan provides an excellent example of listing the data required for each study type targeted by that campaign. Whereas discussion here focused on the microscale and mesoscale, other studies should obviously focus on the regional, seasonal and global scale. When considering ice microphysics alone, laser focus on unconstrained model components could be usefully intensified (e.g., collision-coalescence kernels). Similarly, a focus on boundary layer structure would be deeply valuable to a wide range of model types. The expense of observations motivates efficient planning for observational data sets to support specific study approaches; the concept of closure is often useful (e.g., the surface energy budget).

nucleation↗

DOE OSTI2020

Regional differences in tobacco smoking and lung cancer in Portugal in 2018: a population-based analysis using nationwide incidence and mortality data

Objectives: This study aims to estimate the proportion of lung cancer cases and deaths attributable to tobacco smoking in Portugal in 2018, complemented by trends in incidence and mortality, by sex and region. Design: Cancer cases for 1998–2011 and cancer deaths for 1991–2018 were obtained from population-based registries and Statistics Portugal, respectively. We projected cases for 2018 and used reported deaths for the same year to estimate, using Peto’s method, the number and proportion of lung cancer cases and deaths caused by tobacco smoking in 2018. We calculated the age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates in each year of diagnosis and death. We fitted a joinpoint regression to the observed data to estimate the annual percentage change (APC) in the rates. Setting: Portugal. Results: In 2018, an estimated 3859 cases and 3192 deaths from lung cancer were attributable to tobacco smoking in Portugal, with men presenting a population attributable fraction (PAF) of 82.6% (n=3064) for incidence and 84.1% (n=2749) for mortality, while in women those values were 51.0% (n=795) and 42.7% (n=443), respectively. In both sexes and metrics, the Azores were the region with the highest PAF and the Centre with the lowest. During 1998–2011, the APC for incidence ranged from 0.6% to 3.0% in men and 3.6% to 7.9% in women, depending on region, with mortality presenting a similar pattern between sexes. Conclusion: Exposure to tobacco smoking has accounted for most of the lung cancer cases and deaths estimated in Portugal in 2018. Differential patterns of tobacco consumption across the country, varying implementation of primary prevention programmes and differences in personal cancer awareness may have contributed to the disparities observed. Primary prevention of lung cancer remains a public health priority, particularly among women.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Analysis of attenuation data from the decommissioned ZIon unit 1 reactor pressure vessel beltline weld

In order to examine the attenuation of radiation damage through the thickness of an irradiated reactor pressure vessel (RPV), four segments were acquired from the Zion Unit 1 power plant RPV after the plant was decommissioned. The Zion Unit 1 RPV Beltline Weld Segment 1 was cut into seven blocks, consisting of five base metal and two beltline welds from the high fluence region of the segment. Through-wall test specimens were machined and tested. Specimens included those used for Charpy impact, Master Curve fracture toughness testing, and chemical analysis. The observed through-thickness ductile-to-brittle transition temperatures in the beltline weld deviated significantly from the expected behavior based on the attenuation of fast fluence as a function of depth into the RPV. Beginning at the inside surface, the 41-J Charpy transition temperature was either flat or slightly increasing until the ¾ -T location. The results of a simple, model-based analysis of the Zion beltline weld material that included the irradiation conditions and material chemistry were generally consistent with industry trend curves and the standard attenuation model, rather than the observed data. Although there was no archive material from the RPV available to permit measurement of the unirradiated properties, fracture toughness specimens fabricated from archive surveillance weld were used to obtain an estimate of the initial through-thickness values of the Charpy transition temperature. The Charpy shifts obtained using this approach were similarly in disagreement with the predictions of the US NRC Regulatory Guide 1.99, Rev. 2. However, testing of irradiated Charpy specimens taken from the RPV following post-irradiation annealing (10 hr. at 500 °C) provided a quite different estimate of the unirradiated properties which improved the agreement between the inferred through-thickness Charpy shifts and exponential attenuation model included in Regulatory Guide 1.99/2. In conclusion, the analysis of the Zion data and data obtained in previous post-mortem examinations of decommissioned RPVs indicates that more work is needed to understand the through-thickness properties of RPV materials in order to properly assess through-wall damage attenuation.

Charpy impact↗

DOE OSTI2025

sOPTICS: a modified density-based algorithm for identifying galaxy groups/clusters and brightest cluster galaxies

A direct approach to studying the galaxy–halo connection is to analyse groups and clusters of galaxies that trace the underlying dark matter haloes, emphasizing the importance of identifying galaxy clusters and their associated brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs). In this work, we test and propose a robust density-based clustering algorithm that outperforms the traditional Friends-of-Friends (FoF) algorithm in the currently available galaxy group/cluster catalogues. Our new approach is a modified version of the Ordering Points To Identify the Clustering Structure (OPTICS) algorithm, which accounts for line-of-sight positional uncertainties due to redshift space distortions by incorporating a scaling factor, and is thereby referred to as sOPTICS. When tested on both a galaxy group catalogue based on semi-analytic galaxy formation simulations and observational data, our algorithm demonstrated robustness to outliers and relative insensitivity to hyperparameter choices. In total, we compared the results of eight clustering algorithms. The proposed density-based clustering method, sOPTICS, outperforms FoF in accurately identifying giant galaxy clusters and their associated BCGs in various environments with higher purity and recovery rate, also successfully recovering 115 BCGs out of 118 reliable BCGs from a large galaxy sample. Furthermore, when applied to an independent observational catalogue without extensive re-tuning, sOPTICS maintains high recovery efficiency, confirming its flexibility and effectiveness for large-scale astronomical surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

CHiPBETA

High-accuracy water level data are needed to resolve the temporal and spatial hydraulic response to pumping in aquifers. However, the water-level data are typically affected by physical process unrelated to the aquifer pumping such as barometric pressure changes, tides, earthquakes, {\etc}. We have developed a computational framework to correct for barometric and Earth tide effects using linear regression deconvolution, as an initial guess for a nonlinear residual minimization to account for pumping effects. The pumping effects are predicted using the Theis equation with initialization by Jacob's method. After minimizing the residuals between the observed data and Theis predicted pumping effects, the algorithm estimates storativity and transmissivity of the aquifer. The algorithm also provides information about the measurement accuracy of the collected water-level data. The computational framework CHiPBETA is developed in Python and demonstrated to analyze synthetic and real data.

Banner, Eric↗

DOE OSTI2022

Soil-related developments of the Biome-BGCMuSo v6.2 terrestrial ecosystem model

Terrestrial biogeochemical models are essential tools to quantify climate–carbon cycle feedback and plant–soil relations from local to global scale. In this study, a theoretical basis is provided for the latest version of the Biome-BGCMuSo biogeochemical model (version 6.2). Biome-BGCMuSo is a branch of the original Biome-BGC model with a large number of developments and structural changes. Earlier model versions performed poorly in terms of soil water content (SWC) dynamics in different environments. Moreover, lack of detailed nitrogen cycle representation was a major limitation of the model. Since problems associated with these internal drivers might influence the final results and parameter estimation, additional structural improvements were necessary. In this paper the improved soil hydrology as well as the soil carbon and nitrogen cycle calculation methods are described in detail. Capabilities of the Biome-BGCMuSo v6.2 model are demonstrated via case studies focusing on soil hydrology, soil nitrogen cycle, and soil organic carbon content estimation. Soil-hydrology-related results are compared to observation data from an experimental lysimeter station. The results indicate improved performance for Biome-BGCMuSo v6.2 compared to v4.0 (explained variance increased from 0.121 to 0.8 for SWC and from 0.084 to 0.46 for soil evaporation; bias changed from -0.047 to -0.007 m 3 m -3 for SWC and from -0.68 to -0.2 mm d -1 for soil evaporation). Simulations related to nitrogen balance and soil CO 2 efflux were evaluated based on observations made in a long-term field experiment under crop rotation. The results indicated that the model is able to provide realistic nitrate content estimation for the topsoil. Soil nitrous oxide (N 2 O) efflux and soil respiration simulations were also realistic, with overall correspondence with the observations (for the N 2 O efflux simulation bias was between -0.13 and -0.1 mgNm -2 d -1 , and normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) was 32.4 %–37.6 %; for CO 2 efflux simulations bias was 0.04–0.17 gCm -2 d -1 , while NRMSE was 34.1 %–40.1 %). Sensitivity analysis and optimization of the decomposition scheme are presented to support practical application of the model. The improved version of Biome-BGCMuSo has the ability to provide more realistic soil hydrology representation as well as nitrification and denitrification process estimation, which represents a major milestone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1983

Interpretation of MST radar returns from clear air

The nature of the scattering and reflection mechanisms that give rise to the MST radar echoes from the clear air is essential in the correct interpretation of the data about winds, waves, turbulence and stability in the atmosphere. There are two main aspects: the nature of the targets the radar sees and their generation mechanisms; and the signatures of the radar signals returned from the different targets. Volume scatterings from isotropic or anisotropic turbulence, and partial reflections from horizontally stratified, sharp refractive index gradients are believed the main contributors to radar echoes. Combined effects from all the mechanisms probably produce the observed data. The signature of the echo signals for these different scatterers under realistic experimental conditions should be studied. It is hoped from these studies, the nature of the targets can be better understood, and related to atmospheric dynamic processes.

Liu, C. H.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Central California Disasters: Incorporating Satellite-Derived Precipitation and Soil Moisture Products into Flood Preparedness and Emergency Management in California

Atmospheric rivers are a major contributor to extreme precipitation events and flooding in California. This study assessed the feasibility of using Earth observation data to monitor precipitation, soil moisture, and flooding from atmospheric rivers in the Salinas River Watershed in central California during the winter of 2022-2023. The team analyzed satellite derived precipitation estimates from the Global Precipitation Measurement mission, soil moisture data from the Soil Moisture Active Passive radiometer, and synthetic aperture radar imagery from Sentinel-1 to detect flood inundation. Global Precipitation Measurement precipitation estimates were found to underestimate rainfall by 33% to 52% compared to rain gauge data. The team found the Soil Moisture Active Passive dataset to be a valuable flooding indicator that they could visualize through various graphical representations, although its accuracy still needs verification with in situ flood maps. Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar imagery provided mapping of flood inundation extent along the Salinas River and surrounding areas and the Blue Spot model appears to be a good predictor of pluvial flood zones. The findings suggest Earth observations can enhance precipitation and flooding monitoring by the California Department of Water Resources, though further verification is needed. Integration of these datasets with vulnerability indices highlighted communities at highest risk during the 2022-2023 flooding events.

Abhinav Banthiya↗

NASA NTRS1976

Satellite measurements of ion composition and temperatures in the topside ionosphere during medium solar activity

Information on both ion density and temperature is obtained from analysis of Retarding Potential Analyzer data from the OGO-4 and Explorer-31 satellites. Results obtained from data in the altitude range of 700-2000 km during medium solar activity are presented. An attempt is made to describe the major altitude variations of ion densities and temperatures at middle and low latitudes. The transition heights, where the heavier and lighter ions are equal, are found to be about 1600 and 1300 km at middle and low latitudes, respectively, for daytime and 700 km at night for middle latitudes. Based on the observed data and using diffusive equilibrium as a first-order approximation, topside ionospheric composition models are given for medium solar activity.

Goel, M. K.↗

NASA NTRS1985

A numerical simulation of auroral ionospheric electrodynamics

A computer simulation of auroral ionospheric electrodynamics in the altitude range 80 to 250 km has been developed. The routine will either simulate typical electron precipitation profiles or accept observed data. Using a model background ionosphere, ion production rates are calculated from which equilibrium electron densities and the Hall and Pedersen conductivities may be determined. With the specification of suitable boundary conditions, the entire three-dimensional current system and electric field may be calculated within the simulation region. The results of the application of the routine to a typical inverted-V precipitation profile are demonstrated. The routine is used to explore the observed anticorrelation between electric field magnitude and peak energy in the precipitating electron spectrum of an auroral arc.

Mallinckrodt, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Interiors of the giant planets

The interior structure of the Jovian planets was studied by means of observational data obtained by ground-based astronomy. Recent work was oriented toward a determination of oblateness from occultation measurements of the shape of planetary atmospheres. This provides a determination of the degree of central condensation of the planet, which is then compared with interior models and theoretical equations of state. As a serendipitous result of the attempts to measure the oblateness of Neptune, a partial Neptune ring (or arc) was discovered following an occultation observation on July 22, 1984. During 1985, older observations were reexamined to determine whether Neptune arcs had been detected (but not identified) during previous occultations. It appears that Neptunian arcs may locally imitate Uranian rings, with an 1981 event resembling Uranus' epsilon ring, while an 1984 event was more similar to the thinner Uranian rings such as the alpha ring.

Hubbard, W. B.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Quantifying Errors in 3D CME Parameters Derived from Synthetic Data Using White-Light Reconstruction Techniques

Current efforts in space weather forecasting of CMEs have been focused on predicting their arrival time and magnetic structure. To make these predictions, methods have been developed to derive the true CME speed, size, position, and mass, among others. Difficulties in determining the input parameters for CME forecasting models arise from the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and uncertainties in estimating the CME 3D geometric and kinematic parameters after eruption. White-light coronagraph images are usually employed by a variety of CME reconstruction techniques that assume more or less complex geometries. This is the first study from our International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team “Understanding Our Capabilities in Observing and Modeling Coronal Mass Ejections”, in which we explore how subjectivity affects the 3D CME parameters that are obtained from the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) reconstruction technique, which is widely used in CME research. To be able to quantify such uncertainties, the “true” values that are being fitted should be known, which are impossible to derive from observational data. We have designed two different synthetic scenarios where the “true” geometric parameters are known in order to quantify such uncertainties for the first time. We explore this by using two sets of synthetic data: 1) Using the ray-tracing option from the GCS model software itself, and 2) Using 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation data from the Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere code. Our experiment includes different viewing configurations using single and multiple viewpoints. CME reconstructions using a single viewpoint had the largest errors and error ranges overall for both synthetic GCS and simulated MHD white-light data. As the number of viewpoints increased from one to two, the errors decreased by approximately 4° in latitude, 22° in longitude, 14° in tilt, and 10° in half-angle. Our results quantitatively show the critical need for at least two viewpoints to be able to reduce the uncertainty in deriving CME parameters. We did not find a significant decrease in errors when going from two to three viewpoints for our specific hypothetical three spacecraft scenario using synthetic GCS white-light data. As we expected, considering all configurations and numbers of viewpoints, the mean absolute errors in the measured CME parameters are generally significantly higher in the case of the simulated MHD white-light data compared to those from the synthetic white-light images generated by the GCS model. We found the following CME parameter error bars as a starting point for quantifying the minimum error in CME parameters from white-light reconstructions: Δθ (latitude)=6° +2° -3° , Δϕ (longitude)=11° +18° -6° , Δγ (tilt)=25° +8° -7° , Δx (half-angle)=10° +12° -6° , Δh (height)=0.6 +1.2 -0.4 R ⨀ , and Δκ (ratio)=0.1 +0.03 -0.02 .

Coronal mass ejections↗

NASA NTRS2022

Quantifying Errors in 3D CME Parameters Derived From Synthetic Data Using White-Light Reconstruction Techniques

Coronal mass ejections↗

DOE OSTI2016

Evaluating the Community Land Model in a pine stand with shading manipulations and 13 CO 2 labeling

Carbon partitioning and flow through ecosystems regulates land surface atmosphere CO 2 exchange and thus is a key, albeit uncertain component of mechanistic models. The Partitioning in Trees and Soil (PiTS) experiment-model project tracked C partitioning through a young Pinus taeda stand following pulse-labeling with 13 CO 2 and two levels of shading. The field component of this project provided process-oriented data that was used to evaluate and improve terrestrial biosphere model simulations of rapid shifts in carbon partitioning and hydrological dynamics under varying environmental conditions. Here we tested the performance of the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) in capturing short-term carbon and water dynamics in relation to manipulative shading treatments, and the timing and magnitude of carbon fluxes through various compartments of the ecosystem. To constrain CLM4 to closely simulate pretreatment conditions, we calibrated select model parameters with the pretreatment observational data. Compared to CLM4 simulations with default parameters, CLM4 with calibrated model parameters was better able to simulate pretreatment vegetation carbon pools, light response curves, and other initial states and fluxes of carbon and water. Over a 3-week treatment period, the calibrated CLM4 generally reproduced the impacts of shading on average soil moisture at 15-95 cm depth, transpiration, relative change in stem carbon, and soil CO 2 efflux rate, although some discrepancies in the estimation of magnitudes and temporal evolutions existed. CLM4, however, was not able to track the progression of the 13 CO 2 label from the atmosphere through foliage, phloem, roots or surface soil CO 2 efflux, even when optimized model parameters were used. This model bias arises, in part, from the lack of a short-term non-structural carbohydrate storage pool and progressive timing of within-plant transport, thus indicating a need for future work to improve the allocation routines in CLM4. Overall, these types of detailed evaluations of CLM4, paired with intensive field manipulations, can help to identify model strengths and weaknesses, model uncertainties, and additional observations necessary for future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗