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At least 1,657 records · Page 92

Technoeconomic assessment of hydrogen cogeneration via high temperature steam electrolysis with a light-water reactor

Increased electricity production from renewable energy resources, coupled with low natural gas (NG) prices, has caused existing light-water reactors (LWRs) to experience diminishing returns from the electricity market. This reduction in revenue is forcing LWRs to consider alternative revenue streams, such as introduction hydrogen production or desalination, to remain profitable. This paper performs a technoeconomic assessment (TEA) regarding the viability of retrofitting existing pressurized-water reactors (PWRs) to produce green hydrogen (H 2 ) via high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE). Such an integration would allow nuclear facilities to expand into additional markets that may be more profitable in the long term and eliminate CO 2 emissions from the hydrogen production process. Here, to accommodate such an integration, a detailed single market levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) and multimarket analyses were conducted of HTSE process operation, requirements, costing, and flexibility. Alongside this costing analysis, market analyses were conducted on the electric and hydrogen markets in the PJM interconnect. Utilizing a novel stochastic, dispatch optimization approach results suggest that a positive gain is achievable, and by operating in multiple markets, the nuclear facility can avoid the sale of electricity during times of low electricity market pricing, while maintaining the ability to capitalize on the high electricity market pricing. It should be noted that the analysis conducted is a differential cash flow analysis and, as such, does not present profit levels. LCOH analysis results demonstrate the potential exists to produce hydrogen at a cost as low as $1.20/kg. This price is lower than traditional steam methane reforming (SMR) allowing nuclear based hydrogen production to disrupt the existing hydrogen production market.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Closed-loop recycling of mixed polyesters via catalytic methanolysis and monomer separations

A sustainable plastics future will require high recycling rates and the use of biogenic feedstocks, which together are catalyzing interest in replacing fossil fuel-derived, noncircular polyolefin packaging materials with bio-based, chemically recyclable polyesters. Here, in this study, we present a catalytic methanolysis process capable of depolymerizing both fossil fuel- and bio-based polyesters, including polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polylactic acid, polybutylene adipate terephthalate and polybutylene succinate in one reactor under mild conditions with high monomer yields. We scaled this process to 1 kg and integrated separations engineering using activated carbon, crystallization, extraction and distillation to remove contaminants and recover individual monomers from depolymerized mixed polyesters with high yield and purity. PET synthesized from monomers isolated from postconsumer materials showed comparable mechanical and thermal properties to PET from commercial monomers. Techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment show that this process is economically viable and exhibits lower environmental impacts than primary production of respective polymers.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Deep mitigation of CO 2 and non-CO 2 greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures

Stabilizing climate change well below 2 °C and towards 1.5 °C requires comprehensive mitigation of all greenhouse gases (GHG), including both CO 2 and non-CO 2 GHG emissions. Here we incorporate the latest global non-CO 2 emissions and mitigation data into a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model GCAM and examine 90 mitigation scenarios pairing different levels of CO 2 and non-CO 2 GHG abatement pathways. We estimate that when non-CO 2 mitigation contributions are not fully implemented, the timing of net-zero CO 2 must occur about two decades earlier. Conversely, comprehensive GHG abatement that fully integrates non-CO 2 mitigation measures in addition to a net-zero CO 2 commitment can help achieve 1.5 °C stabilization. While decarbonization-driven fuel switching mainly reduces non-CO 2 emissions from fuel extraction and end use, targeted non-CO 2 mitigation measures can significantly reduce fluorinated gas emissions from industrial processes and cooling sectors. Our integrated modeling provides direct insights in how system-wide all GHG mitigation can affect the timing of net-zero CO 2 for 1.5 °C and 2 °C climate change scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reassessment of caustic scrubbing for radioiodine capture during UNF processing

The effective removal of iodine-129 from gaseous emissions during used nuclear fuel processing is critical for minimizing environmental contamination and ensuring environmental regulatory compliance. Recent research has focused on optimizing process air, scrubber conditions, and integrating complementary techniques, such as solid sorbents as a polishing step, to improve iodine capture efficiency. The efficiency of a caustic scrubber is influenced by several factors, such as pH, temperature, gas–liquid contact time, and the presence of oxidants, yet the existing literature tends not to consider how these factors might interact or change in importance with process scaling. This perspective advocates for reconsidering how to mitigate many of these factors, especially in view of the transition from laboratory bench to pilot scale and beyond. This paper reviews the principles, operational parameters, and advancements in caustic aqueous scrubbing for radioiodine mitigation, aims to direct the next scientific pursuit of this technology, and inform environmental decision-making.

Ngelale, Randy [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗

Real Time Predictive and Adaptive Hybrid Powertrain Control Development via Neuroevolution

The real-time application of powertrain-based predictive energy management (PrEM) brings the prospect of additional energy savings for hybrid powertrains. Torque split optimal control methodologies have been a focus in the automotive industry and academia for many years. Their real-time application in modern vehicles is, however, still lagging behind. While conventional exact and non-exact optimal control techniques such as Dynamic Programming and Model Predictive Control have been demonstrated, they suffer from the curse of dimensionality and quickly display limitations with high system complexity and highly stochastic environment operation. This paper demonstrates that Neuroevolution associated drive cycle classification algorithms can infer optimal control strategies for any system complexity and environment, hence streamlining and speeding up the control development process. Neuroevolution also circumvents the integration of low fidelity online plant models, further avoiding prohibitive embedded computing requirements and fidelity loss. This brings the prospect of optimal control to complex multi-physics system applications. The methodology presented here covers the development of the drive cycles used to train and validate the neurocontrollers and classifiers, as well as the application of the Neuroevolution process.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Advanced High-Level Waste Glass Research and Development Plan

The U.S. Department of Energy Office of River Protection (ORP) has implemented an integrated program to increase the loading of Hanford tank wastes in glass while meeting melter lifetime expectancies and process, regulatory, and product quality requirements. The integrated ORP program is focused on providing a technical, science-based foundation from which key decisions can be made regarding the successful operation of the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) facilities. The fundamental data stemming from this program will support development of advanced glass formulations, key process control models, and tactical processing strategies to ensure safe and successful operations for both the low-activity waste (LAW) and high-level waste (HLW) vitrification facilities with an appreciation toward reducing overall mission life. The purpose of this advanced HLW glass research and development plan is to identify the near-, mid-, and longer-term research and development activities required to develop and validate advanced HLW glasses and their associated models to support facility operations at WTP, including both direct feed and full pretreatment flowsheets. This plan also integrates technical support of facility operations and waste qualification activities to show the interdependence of these activities with the advanced waste glass (AWG) program to support the full WTP mission. Figure ES-1 shows these key ORP programmatic activities and their interfaces with both WTP facility operations and qualification needs. The plan is a living document that will be updated to reflect key advancements and mission strategy changes. The research outlined here is motivated by the potential for substantial economic benefits (e.g., significant increases in waste throughput and reductions in glass volumes) that will be realized when advancements in glass formulation continue and models supporting facility operations are implemented. Developing and applying advanced glass formulations will reduce the cost of Hanford tank waste management by reducing the schedule for tank waste treatment and reducing the amount of HLW glass for storage, transportation, and disposal. Additional benefits will be realized if advanced glasses are developed that demonstrate more tolerance for key components in the waste (such as Al 2 O 3 , Cr 2 O 3 , SO 3 and Na 2 O) above the currently defined WTP constraints. Tolerating these higher concentrations of key waste loading limiters may reduce the burden on (or even eliminate the need for) leaching to remove Cr and Al and washing to remove excess S and Na from the HLW fraction. Advanced glass formulations may also make direct vitrification of the HLW fraction without significant pretreatment more cost effective. Finally, the advanced glass formulation efforts seek not only to increase waste loading in glass, but also to increase glass production rate. When coupled with higher waste loading, ensuring that all of the advanced glass formulations are processable at or above the current contract processing rate leads to significant improvements in waste throughput (the amount of waste being processed per unit time),which could significantly reduce the overall WTP mission life. The integration of increased waste loading, reduced leaching/washing requirements, and improved melting rates provides a system-wide approach to improve the effectiveness of the WTP process.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Long-Term Instrumentation, Information, and Control Systems (II&C) Modernization Future Vision and Strategy (Revision 1)

Life extension beyond 60 years for the U.S operating nuclear fleet requires that instrumentation and control (I&C) systems be upgraded to address aging and reliability concerns. It is impractical for the legacy systems based on 1970's vintage technology operate over this extended time period. Indeed, utilities have successfully engaged in such replacements when dictated by these operational concerns. However, the replacements have been approached in a like-for-like manner, meaning that they do not take advantage of the inherent capabilities of digital technology to improve business functions. And so, the improvement in I&C system performance has not translated to bottom-line performance improvement for the fleet. Therefore, wide-scale modernization of the legacy I&C systems could prove to be cost-prohibitive unless the technology is implemented in a manner to enable significant business innovation as a means of off-setting the cost of upgrades. A Future Vision of a transformed nuclear plant operating model based on an integrated digital environment has been developed as part of the Advanced Instrumentation, Information, and Control (II&C) research pathway, under the Light Water Reactor (LWR) Sustainability Program. This is a research and development program sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), performed in close collaboration with the nuclear utility industry, to provide the technical foundations for licensing and managing the long-term, safe and economical operation of current nuclear power plants. DOE's program focus is on longer-term and higher-risk/reward research that contributes to the national policy objectives of energy security and environmental security. The Advanced II&C research pathway is being conducted by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The Future Vision is based on a digital architecture that encompasses all aspects of plant operations and support, integrating plant systems, plant work processes, and plant workers in a seamless digital environment to enhance nuclear safety, increase productivity, and improve overall plant performance. The long-term goal is to transform the operating model of the nuclear power plants (NPP)s from one that is highly reliant on a large staff performing mostly manual activities to an operating model based on highly integrated technology with a smaller staff. This digital transformation is critical to addressing an array of issues facing the plants, including aging of legacy analog systems, potential shortage of technical workers, ever-increasing expectations for nuclear safety improvement, and relentless pressure to reduce cost. The Future Vision is based on research is being conducted in the following major areas of plant function: (1) Highly integrated control rooms; (2) Highly automated plant; (3) Integrated operations; (4) Human performance improvement for field workers; and (5) Outage safety and efficiency. Pilot projects will be conducted in each of these areas as the means for industry to collectively integrate these new technologies into nuclear plant work activities. The pilot projects introduce new digital technologies into the nuclear plant operating environment at host operating plants to demonstrate and validate them for production usage. In turn, the pilot project technologies serve as the stepping stones to the eventual seamless digital environment as described in the Future Vision.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Long-Term Instrumentation, Information, and Control Systems (II&C) Modernization Future Vision and Strategy

Life extension beyond 60 years for the U.S operating nuclear fleet requires that instrumentation and control (I&C) systems be upgraded to address aging and reliability concerns. It is impractical for the legacy systems based on 1970’s vintage technology operate over this extended time period. Indeed, utilities have successfully engaged in such replacements when dictated by these operational concerns. However, the replacements have been approached in a like-for-like manner, meaning that they do not take advantage of the inherent capabilities of digital technology to improve business functions. And so, the improvement in I&C system performance has not translated to bottom-line performance improvement for the fleet. Therefore, wide-scale modernization of the legacy I&C systems could prove to be cost-prohibitive unless the technology is implemented in a manner to enable significant business innovation as a means of off-setting the cost of upgrades. A Future Vision of a transformed nuclear plant operating model based on an integrated digital environment has been developed as part of the Advanced Instrumentation, Information, and Control (II&C) research pathway, under the Light Water Reactor (LWR) Sustainability Program. This is a research and development program sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), performed in close collaboration with the nuclear utility industry, to provide the technical foundations for licensing and managing the long-term, safe and economical operation of current nuclear power plants. DOE’s program focus is on longer-term and higher-risk/reward research that contributes to the national policy objectives of energy security and environmental security . The Advanced II&C research pathway is being conducted by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The Future Vision is based on a digital architecture that encompasses all aspects of plant operations and support, integrating plant systems, plant work processes, and plant workers in a seamless digital environment to enhance nuclear safety, increase productivity, and improve overall plant performance. The long-term goal is to transform the operating model of the nuclear power plants (NPP)s from one that is highly reliant on a large staff performing mostly manual activities to an operating model based on highly integrated technology with a smaller staff. This digital transformation is critical to addressing an array of issues facing the plants, including aging of legacy analog systems, potential shortage of technical workers, ever-increasing expectations for nuclear safety improvement, and relentless pressure to reduce cost. The Future Vision is based on research is being conducted in the following major areas of plant function: 1. Highly integrated control rooms 2. Highly automated plant 3. Integrated operations 4. Human performance improvement for field workers 5. Outage safety and efficiency. Pilot projects will be conducted in each of these areas as the means for industry to collectively integrate these new technologies into nuclear plant work activities. The pilot projects introduce new digital technologies into the nuclear plant operating environment at host operating plants to demonstrate and validate them for production usage. In turn, the pilot project technologies serve as the stepping stones to the eventual seamless digital environment as described in the Future Vision.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

110th Anniversary: Bridging the Time and Length Scales of Process Systems with Data

Here we report on the role of data as a "bridge" connecting the different time/length scales of chemical processes in mathematical modeling and multi-scale, integrated decision making. We argue that this is a fitting role of "big data" in the chemical industry, an area that comprises complicated yet deterministic physical systems. Such systems can be described using physical and chemical laws that are generally well-understood. Accordingly, data and data analysis are less likely to provide the unexpected and/or surprising insights that they have generated in other sectors (e.g., the transactional economy, social sciences). Nevertheless, historical operating data (which are often plentiful and available at little cost) can be converted to very useful information for multi-scale mathematical modeling of chemical processes. Several examples of integration are provided, mapped on the continuum of time and length scales of process systems. Current research challenges and potential directions for future work are discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Zero-deadtime processing in beta spectroscopy for measurement of the non-zero neutrino mass

The Project 8 collaboration seeks to measure, or more tightly bound, the mass of the electron antineutrino by applying a novel spectroscopy technique to precisely measure the tritium beta-decay spectrum. The current system produces a single analog signal, which is digitized and processed in several stages before being saved to local disk storage. Online processing includes two stages, an FPGA connected to the analog to digital converter reduces the data down to the region of interest before shipping over the local network for further processing and storage. A normal CPU-based processing stage applies triggering logic to only save data at times when a signal is present, further reducing the total volume of data which needs to be written to disk or transferred for long-term storage. The next stage of the project will need to process many input channels and will integrate a necessary aggregation and combination step prior to applying the event search and triggering logic. We present the online processing system which has successfully been deployed for the current, singlechannel, phase. We also present the status and design for a many-channel platform.

Project 8 Collaboration↗

MAJORANA Collaboration's Experience with Germanium Detectors

A unique way to explore the nature of the neutrino is the search for neutrinoless double beta decay (0νββ). Observation of 0νββ-decay would decisively prove that neutrinos are Majorana particles and that lepton number is violated. The Majorana Demonstrator will perform a search for 0νββ-decay in 76Ge. The experiment is currently under construction at the Sanford Underground Facility (SURF) in South Dakota, USA. The Majorana Demonstrator will use an array of 40 kg of high purity germanium detectors, up to 30 kg of which will be enriched to 86% in 76Ge, surrounded by passive and active shielding. The major goal is to demonstrate a path forward to achieving a background rate at or below 3 counts/(ROI-t-y) in the 4 keV region of interest (ROI) around the 2039 keV Q-value of the 76Ge 0νββ decay. This is required for the next generation of tonne-scale germanium-based 0νββ-decay searches that are designed to probe the neutrino mass scale in the inverted-hierarchy region. Beyond the usage of ultra-clean material and extensive shielding, a key feature to achieve a low background level is a high energy resolution to minimize the ROI and pulse-shape discrimination capability to distinguish signal from background events. These properties are provided by High Purity (HP) P-type Point Contact (PPC) germanium (Ge) detectors. By enriching the natural germanium to 87% in 76Ge the detectors can be used as source and detector simultaneously. At the time of this presentation, 30 enriched detectors with average mass of 840 g have been delivered and successfully tested at SURF. All detectors met the requirements during characterization in vendor cryostat and are now being assembled in the final Majorana Demonstrator experiment.

Mertens, S.↗

FM-BEM simulation of 3-D microvoid and microcrack graphite models with Python and ABAQUS/CAE pre-processing - 18603

The mechanical property and structural integrity of graphite structure have an important significance on the safe operation of high temperature gas cooled reactor. The graphite is porous media, the structural deficiencies such as microcracks and microvoids in it have great influence on its material mesoscopic structure and mechanical parameter. The shape and size distribution of microvoids and microcracks at different oxidation degree have a great influence on the overall performance. In order to simulate the geometric structure of the oxidized graphite, we used Python script to pre-process in Abaqus/CAE and this leads to different graphite models with different oxidation degrees. Then, these models were set with our pre-designed force boundary conditions and displacement boundary conditions. The models information was output to a FMBEM solver written by C++ code and the graphite s equivalent young s modulus and other mechanic parameters were calculated. In this paper, based on the 3- D microvoid and microcrack graphite models simulation, we studied the influence of the change of mesoscopic structure on graphite's mechanical property. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Lifecycle Management of Nuclear Security Radiation Detection Systems: Testing and Evaluation

The lifecycle of radiation detection systems functioning within a State’s Nuclear Security Detection Architecture encompasses all activities associated with acquisition, deployment, and eventual disposal. Throughout a system’s lifecycle, testing and evaluation activities are needed to ensure requirements are continually met, as underscored by recent experiences.This paper provides:1.A discussion of reasons why testing should be part of the radiation detection equipment lifecycle before, during, and after acquisition.2.A general process for determining applicable evaluation methods.3.A discussion of issues related to integrating testing and evaluation into procurement and operational processes and mitigation strategies.

Harris, Tyrone↗

Report of On-Site Inspection Workshop-20: Debriefing on OSI Build-Up Exercises (BUE) I and II/IV and Preparations for BUE III

OSI Workshop-20, “Debriefing on OSI Build-Up Exercises (BUE) I and II/IV and Preparations for BUE III”, took place on 29 October – 2 November 2012 at the Vienna International Centre. There were a total of 83 participants from both the Provisional Technical Secretariat (PTS) and 19 States Signatories. This workshop is part of the planning and preparation process leading up to the 2014 Integrated Field Exercise (IFE14). The opening plenary session provided an overview of the build-up exercises (BUEs) and the overall planning process for IFE14 and preparations for BUE I and BUE II/IV, and the closing session provided a summary of findings. Other sessions consisted of a summary of the preparations for BUE I (launch phase), review and discussion of the execution of BUE I, review and discussion of BUE II/IV (pre-inspection and post-inspection phases), and review and planning of elements of BUE III (inspection phase) and IFE14. BUE I was conducted in mid-April and BUE II/IV in mid-September 2012. BUE III is planned for 26 May – 7 June 2013 and IFE14 for November-December 2014. The purpose of this workshop was to give the participants who took part in the exercises and participants at the workshop a chance to review the preparation and execution of BUE I and BUE II/IV, assess them as to their value to the exercise build-up process, determine what went well and what did not go well, and provide recommendations to help the planning for BUE III and IFE14. This was accomplished by means of presentations by PTS staff and other participants, discussions following the presentations and separate expert working group discussions. The consensus of the participants was that BUE I and BUE II/IV validated the exercise concept contained in CTBT/PTS/INF.1105 (Concept for Preparation and Conduct of the Next Integrated Field Exercise). The many details dealt with in the launch, pre-inspection and post inspection exercises provided an opportunity to test a host of issues prior to IFE14. The exercises showed that the PTS has made considerable progress in developing capabilities in logistics, administration and planning of an OSI since IFE08, and pointed as well to a number of areas where more attention is needed – most notably in the areas of health and safety and equipment checking at the base of operations. A number of areas for which results from the two initial exercises can be applied to BUE III and IFE14 were identified. Also, the review of plans and preparations for BUE III and IFE14 provided the participants with an excellent baseline of information on these two exercises. Probably the most significant impressions that resulted from this workshop are the significant level of complexity involved with preparing the OSI verification regime, the extent of planning involved in the preparation of exercises, and the great value of these types of BUE for assessing and building OSI capabilities. The recommendations section at the end of this report contains the findings of the workshop, grouped into lessons learned from the first two BUEs, proposals relevant to BUE III and IFE14 and issues for the attention of Working Group B.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Combining On-Line Characterization Tools with Modern Software Environments for Optimal Operation of Polymerization Processes

Here, this paper discusses the initial steps towards the formulation and implementation of a generic and flexible model centric framework for integrated simulation, estimation, optimization and feedback control of polymerization processes. For the first time it combines the powerful capabilities of the automatic continuous on-line monitoring of polymerization system (ACOMP), with a modern simulation, estimation and optimization software environment towards an integrated scheme for the optimal operation of polymeric processes. An initial validation of the framework was performed for modelling and optimization using literature data, illustrating the flexibility of the method to apply under different systems and conditions. Subsequently, off-line capabilities of the system were fully tested experimentally for model validations, parameter estimation and process optimization using ACOMP data. Experimental results are provided for free radical solution polymerization of methyl methacrylate.

42 ENGINEERING↗

WormBase in 2022—data, processes, and tools for analyzing Caenorhabditis elegans

WormBase (www.wormbase.org) is the central repository for the genetics and genomics of the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans. We provide the research community with data and tools to facilitate the use of C. elegans and related nematodes as model organisms for studying human health, development, and many aspects of fundamental biology. Throughout our 22-year history, we have continued to evolve to reflect progress and innovation in the science and technologies involved in the study of C. elegans. We strive to incorporate new data types and richer data sets, and to provide integrated displays and services that avail the knowledge generated by the published nematode genetics literature. Here, we provide a broad overview of the current state of WormBase in terms of data type, curation workflows, analysis, and tools, including exciting new advances for analysis of single-cell data, text mining and visualization, and the new community collaboration forum. Concurrently, we continue the integration and harmonization of infrastructure, processes, and tools with the Alliance of Genome Resources, of which WormBase is a founding member.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Method to control deposition rate instabilities—High power impulse magnetron sputtering deposition of TiO{sub 2}

The authors describe how changes in shutter state (open/closed) affect sputter plasma conditions and stability of the deposition rate of Ti and TiO{sub 2} films. The films were grown by high power impulse magnetron sputtering in pure Ar and in Ar/O{sub 2} mixture from a metallic Ti target. The shutter state was found to have an effect on the pulse waveform for both pure Ar and reactive sputtering of Ti also affecting stability of TiO{sub 2} deposition rate. When the shutter opened, the shape of pulse current changed from rectangular to peak-plateau and pulse energy decreased. The authors attribute it to the change in plasma impedance and gas rarefaction originating in geometry change in front of the magnetron. TiO{sub 2} deposition rate was initially found to be high, 1.45 Å/s, and then dropped by ∼40% during the first 5 min, while for Ti the change was less obvious. Instability of deposition rate poses significant challenge for growing multilayer heterostructures. In this work, the authors suggest a way to overcome this by monitoring the integrated average energy involved in the deposition process. It is possible to calibrate and control the film thickness by monitoring the integrated pulse energy and end growth when desired integrated pulse energy level has been reached.

42 ENGINEERING↗

From land use to land cover: Restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment - earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations

Climate projections depend on scenarios of fossil fuel emissions and land use change, and the IPCC AR5 parallel process assumes consistent climate scenarios across Integrated Assessment and Earth System Models (IAMs and ESMs). To facilitate consistency, CMIP5 used a novel land use harmonization to provide ESMs with seamless, 1500-2100 land use trajectories generated by historical data and four IAMs. However, we have identified and partially addressed a major gap in the CMIP5 land coupling design. The CMIP5 Community ESM (CESM) global afforestation is only 22% of RCP4.5 afforestation from 2005 to 2100. Likewise, only 17% of the Global Change Assessment Model’s (GCAM’s) 2040 RCP4.5 afforestation signal, and none of the pasture loss, were transmitted to CESM within a newly integrated model. This is a critical problem because afforestation is necessary for achieving the RCP4.5 climate stabilization. We attempted to rectify this problem by modifying only the ESM component of the integrated model, enabling CESM to simulate 66% of GCAM’s afforestation in 2040, and 94% of GCAM’s pasture loss as grassland and shrubland losses. This additional afforestation increases vegetation carbon gain by 19 PgC and decreases atmospheric CO2 gain by 8 ppmv from 2005 to 2040, implying different climate scenarios between CMIP5 GCAM and CESM. Similar inconsistencies likely exist in other CMIP5 model results, primarily because land cover information is not shared between models, with possible contributions from afforestation exceeding model-specific, potentially viable forest area. Further work to harmonize land cover among models will be required to adequately rectify this problem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗