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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

The Observed and Projected Changes of Global Monsoons: Current Status and Future Perspectives

The global monsoon system, encompassing the Asian-Australian, African, and American monsoons, sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture. Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks, including floods and droughts. Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms. Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift: increased rainfall pre-1950s, followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s, driven by both internal variability (e.g., Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and external forcings (greenhouse gases, aerosols), while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions. Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification, though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist. Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes, where thermodynamic effects (warming-induced moisture rise) uniformly boost heavy rainfall, while dynamical shifts (circulation changes) create spatial heterogeneity. Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification (SRM) further complicate predictions: tropical eruptions suppress monsoons, whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows, highlighting unresolved feedbacks. The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons. Critical challenges remain. Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution. The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings, along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming, demands deeper mechanistic insights. Additionally, SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation. Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks, refined climate models, and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers, ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.

climate extreme events↗
DOE OSTI2026

Projective Representations, Bogomolov Multiplier, and Their Applications in Physics

We present a pedagogical review of projective representations of finite groups and their physical applications in quantum many-body systems. Some of our physical results are new. We begin with a self-contained introduction to projective representations, highlighting the role of group cohomology, representation theory, and classification of irreducible projective representations. We then focus on a special subset of cohomology classes, known as the Bogomolov multiplier, which consists of cocycles that are symmetric on commuting pairs but remain nontrivial in group cohomology. Such cocycles have important physical implications: they characterize (1+1)D SPT phases that cannot be detected by string order parameters and give rise, upon gauging, to distinct gapped phases with completely broken non-invertible Rep(G) symmetry. We construct explicit lattice models for these phases and demonstrate how they are distinguished by the fusion rules of local order parameters. We show that a pair of completely broken Rep(G) SSB phases host nontrivial interface modes at their domain walls. As an example, we construct a lattice model where the ground state degeneracy on a ring increases from 32 without interfaces to 56 with interfaces.

Bogomolov multiplier↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mobilization of trace metals from caprock and formation rocks at the Illinois Basin – Decatur Project demonstration site under geological carbon dioxide sequestration conditions

One concern for geologic CO 2 sequestration is the potential leakage of CO 2 or CO 2 -saturated brine containing trace metals into overlying aquifers, which poses the risk of adversely affecting underground sources of drinking water. In this work, rock and brine samples collected in the Illinois Basin – Decatur Project (IBDP), a large-scale geological CO 2 sequestration demonstration project in Decatur, Illinois, USA, as well as synthetic brine samples were used to understand the mobilization of trace metals as a result of CO 2 –rock–brine interactions under IBDP-specific conditions (50 °C and 20.6 MPa). Rock sample characterization indicated that, at the IBDP site, trace metal concentrations were greatest in cap rock samples from the Eau Claire Formation, compared with those from formations above and below this Formation. The natural brine samples collected from the Mt. Simon Sandstone reservoir were highly reducing and saline, with trace metal concentrations up to 680 times greater than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency-prescribed drinking water standards. Batch leaching experiments indicated that both trace metal mobilization from rock and immobilization from the brine occurred when high-pressure CO 2 was introduced into the rock-brine system. The amounts of metals mobilized from the rock generally accounted for <5% of the total metals in the rock, but for some metals, including Ni, Pb, and Tl, up to 63% of the metals in the rock were mobilized to the brine. Leaching of trace metals into synthetic brines was different from that into the natural brine. The results of this study provided current information on the trace element sources and will help in risk simulations and experimental design to further evaluate potential impact of leakage on groundwater quality, which is important for future GCS projects to consider for monitoring and containment assurance purposes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Shadow of the Future: Developing Trust and Software within the Exascale Computing Project

Collaboration and team science are emerging areas of interest in software production. Historically, multi-institutional research collaborations are difficult to initiate and maintain, negatively impacting communication, negotiation, and dialogue between industry, government, and academic researchers. The Exascale Computing Project (ECP), a massive, multi-team, high-stakes initiative, facilitated broader research collaboration under a shared funding structure and extended timeline to support scientific discovery. Here, we conducted interviews with ECP teams, representing a variety of domain specialties, research institutions, and programming backgrounds. Using thematic analysis, we assessed how ECP’s structure created an environment of increased trust among projects and how software shared between teams facilitated sustained collaboration. We found that the expectation of future collaboration, i.e., the shadow of the future, greatly enhanced trust among teams and the quality of scientific software produced. Based on our findings within ECP projects, we connect to the existing literature on trust in software engineering and share recommendations for sustainable multi-institutional collaboration and shared best software practices.

Exascale computing project↗
DOE OSTI2016

Minimal subspace rotation on the Stiefel manifold for stabilization and enhancement of projection-based reduced order models for the compressible Navier–Stokes equations

For a projection-based reduced order model (ROM) of a fluid flow to be stable and accurate, the dynamics of the truncated subspace must be taken into account. This paper proposes an approach for stabilizing and enhancing projection-based fluid ROMs in which truncated modes are accounted for a priori via a minimal rotation of the projection subspace. Attention is focused on the full non-linear compressible Navier–Stokes equations in specific volume form as a step toward a more general formulation for problems with generic non-linearities. Unlike traditional approaches, no empirical turbulence modeling terms are required, and consistency between the ROM and the Navier–Stokes equation from which the ROM is derived is maintained. Mathematically, the approach is formulated as a trace minimization problem on the Stiefel manifold. As a result, the reproductive as well as predictive capabilities of the method are evaluated on several compressible flow problems, including a problem involving laminar flow over an airfoil with a high angle of attack, and a channel-driven cavity flow problem.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Contribution of IAEA coordinated research projects to light water reactors advanced technology fuel testing and simulation

The Fukushima-Daiichi accident in 2011 highlighted the pressing need for enhanced design and safety analysis of nuclear fuels, especially under accident conditions in nuclear power plants (NPPs). To address this need, the international nuclear fuel community has developed several concepts of Accident Tolerant and Advanced Technology Fuels (ATFs) for light water reactors. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), at the request of its Member States, has initiated a series of three Coordinated Research Projects (CRPs) to aid in the development and testing of these ATFs. Further, these projects, known as FUMAC, ACTOF, and ATF-TS, focus on the experimentation and simulation of ATFs under various accident conditions, including design basis accidents and design extension conditions. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the main activities, as well as the achieved or anticipated results of these three CRPs. The insights and advancements gained from these projects will enable IAEA Member States to further refine nuclear fission technology, thereby contributing to efforts aimed at mitigating climate change.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Crustal Deformation and Gravitational Effects From Dynamic Ocean Mass Redistribution Impact Projected Sea‐Level Change

As the climate warms, associated changes in ocean dynamics will redistribute sea‐water mass within the ocean, contributing to relative sea‐level change. This mass redistribution will cause additional sea‐level changes due to gravitational self‐attraction, deformation of the solid Earth, and shifts in the Earth's rotation axis (GRD), which are not incorporated in sea‐level projections. Using CMIP6 climate model output, we quantify relative sea‐level changes induced by GRD from ocean‐dynamic mass loading through 2100. These effects act to amplify projected ocean‐dynamic sea‐level patterns, causing sea‐level rise in coastal regions, particularly along wide continental shelves and at high latitudes. On average, the magnitude of such GRD‐induced sea‐level change is equivalent to ∼15% of the signal due to dynamic ocean mass redistribution. Although our results show substantial inter‐model spread, they reveal that GRD‐induced relative sea‐level changes from ocean mass redistribution represent a non‐negligible component of regional sea‐level change and should be considered in projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning-based observation-constrained projections reveal elevated global socioeconomic risks from wildfire

Reliable projections of wildfire and associated socioeconomic risks are crucial for the development of efficient and effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. The lack of or limited observational constraints for modeling outputs impairs the credibility of wildfire projections. Here, we present a machine learning framework to constrain the future fire carbon emissions simulated by 13 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), using historical, observed joint states of fire-relevant variables. During the twenty-first century, the observation-constrained ensemble indicates a weaker increase in global fire carbon emissions but higher increase in global wildfire exposure in population, gross domestic production, and agricultural area, compared with the default ensemble. Such elevated socioeconomic risks are primarily caused by the compound regional enhancement of future wildfire activity and socioeconomic development in the western and central African countries, necessitating an emergent strategic preparedness to wildfires in these countries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust projection of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall based on dynamical modes of variability

Abstract The Asian monsoon provides the freshwater that a large population in Asia depends on, but how anthropogenic climate warming may alter this key water source remains unclear. This is partly due to the prevailing point-wise assessment of climate projections, even though climate change patterns are inherently organized by dynamics intrinsic to the climate system. Here, we assess the future changes in the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation by projecting the precipitation from several large ensemble simulations and CMIP6 simulations onto the two leading dynamical modes of internal variability. The result shows a remarkable agreement among the ensembles on the increasing trends and the increasing daily variability in both dynamical modes, with the projection pattern emerging as early as the late 2030 s. The increase of the daily variability of the modes heralds more monsoon-related hydrological extremes over some identifiable East Asian regions in the coming decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections

Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Finally, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Capturing convection essential for projections of climate change in African dust emission

The summertime Sahara and Sahel are the world’s largest source of airborne mineral dust. Cold-pool outflows from moist convection (‘haboobs’) are a dominant source of summertime uplift but are essentially missing in global models, raising major questions on the reliability of climate projections of dust and dust impacts. Here we use convection-permitting simulations of pan-African climate change, which explicitly capture haboobs, to investigate whether this key limitation of global models affects projections. We show that explicit convection is key to capturing the observed summertime maximum of dust-generating winds, which is missed with parameterised convection. Despite this, future climate changes in dust-generating winds are more sensitive to the effects of explicit convection on the wider meteorology than they are to the haboobs themselves, with model differences in the change in dust-generating winds reaching 60% of current values. The results therefore show the importance of improving convection in climate models for dust projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Neutronics Calculation Advances at Los Alamos: Manhattan Project to Monte Carlo

The history and advances of neutronics calculations at Los Alamos during the Manhattan Project through the present are reviewed. Substantial improvements to neutron diffusion methods and the invention of both the Monte Carlo neutron transport methods in 1947 and deterministic discrete ordinates Sn in 1953 were all made at Los Alamos just after the Manhattan Project. We briefly summarize early simpler and more approximate neutronics methods and then describe the need to better predict neutronics behavior through consideration of theoretical equations, models and algorithms, experimental measurements, and available computing capabilities and their limitations. This paper briefly covers key advances in deterministic methods during the Manhattan Project. These capabilities, coupled with increasing postwar defense needs and the invention of electronic computing with the Electronic Numeric Integrator and Computer, known as ENIAC, and the Mathematical Analyzer Numerical Integrator and Automatic Computer Model, known as MANIAC, led to the creation of Monte Carlo and deterministic discrete ordinates neutronics transport methods. We note the important role that the scientific comradery between the Los Alamos scientists played in the process. This paper briefly covers the early methods, algorithms, computers, and electronic and women pioneers that enabled Monte Carlo to spread to all areas of science. We focus heavily on these early developments and the subsequent creation of the MCNP® code, advances in its associated nuclear data, and its applications to problems of national defense at Los Alamos.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

The Human Phenotype Ontology project: linking molecular biology and disease through phenotype data

The Human Phenotype Ontology (HPO) project, available at http://www.human-phenotype-ontology.org, provides a structured, comprehensive and welldefined set of 10,088 classes (terms) describing human phenotypic abnormalities and 13,326 subclass relations between the HPO classes. In addition we have developed logical definitions for 46% of all HPO classes using terms from ontologies for anatomy, cell types, function, embryology, pathology and other domains. This allows interoperability with several resources, especially those containing phenotype information on model organisms such as mouse and zebrafish. Here we describe the updated HPO database, which provides annotations of 7,278 human hereditary syndromes listed in OMIM, Orphanet and DECIPHER to classes of the HPO. Various meta-attributes such as frequency, references and negations are associated with each annotation. Several large-scale projects worldwide utilize the HPO for describing phenotype information in their datasets. We have therefore generated equivalence mappings to other phenotype vocabularies such as LDDB, Orphanet, MedDRA, UMLS and phenoDB, allowing integration of existing datasets and interoperability with multiple biomedical resources. We have created various ways to access the HPO database content using flat files, a MySQL database, and Web-based tools. All data and documentation on the HPO project can be found online.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear states projected from a pair condensate

Atomic nuclei exhibit deformation, pairing correlations, and rotational symmetries. To meet these competing demands in a computationally tractable formalism, we revisit the use of general pair condensates with good particle number as a trial wave function for even-even nuclei. After minimizing the energy of the condensate, allowing for general triaxial deformations, we project out states with good angular momentum with a fast projection technique. To show applicability, we present example calculations from pair condensates in several model spaces and compare against angular-momentum projected Hartree-Fock and full configuration-interaction shell-model calculations. This approach successfully generates spherical, vibrational, and rotational spectra, demonstrating potential for modeling medium- to heavy-mass nuclei.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Projection of angular momentum via linear algebra

Projection of many-body states with good angular momentum from an initial state is usually accomplished by a three-dimensional integral. Here, we show how projection can instead be done by solving a straightforward system of linear equations. We demonstrate the method and give sample applications to $^{48}$Cr and $^{60}$Fe in the $pf$ shell. This new projection scheme, which is competitive against the standard numerical quadrature, should also be applicable to other quantum numbers such as isospin and particle number.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Remark on Algorithm 1012: Computing Projections with Large Datasets

In ACM TOMS Algorithm 1012, the DELAUNAYSPARSE software is given for performing Delaunay interpolation in medium to high dimensions. When extrapolating outside the convex hull of the training set, DELAUNAYSPARSE calls the nonnegative least squares solver DWNNLS to compute projections onto the convex hull. However, DWNNLS and many other available sum-of-squares optimization solvers were not intended for usage with many variable problems, which result from the large training sets that are typical in machine learning applications. Thus, a new PROJECT subroutine is given, based on the highly customizable quadratic program solver BQPD. This solution is shown to be as robust as DELAUNAYSPARSE for projection onto both synthetic and real-world datasets, where other available solvers frequently fail. Although it is intended as an update for DELAUNAYSPARSE, due to the difficulty and prevalence of the problem, this solution is likely to be of external interest as well.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A survey of software implementations used by application codes in the Exascale Computing Project

The US Department of Energy Office of Science and the National Nuclear Security Administration initiated the Exascale Computing Project (ECP) in 2016 to prepare mission-relevant applications and scientific software for the delivery of the exascale computers starting in 2023. The ECP currently supports 24 efforts directed at specific applications and six supporting co-design projects. These 24 application projects contain 62 application codes that are implemented in three high-level languages—C, C++, and Fortran—and use 22 combinations of graphical processing unit programming models. The most common implementation language is C++, which is used in 53 different application codes. The most common programming models across ECP applications are CUDA and Kokkos, which are employed in 15 and 14 applications, respectively. This article provides a survey of the programming languages and models used in the ECP applications codebase that will be used to achieve performance on the future exascale hardware platforms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2011

NGNP Project 2011 Status and Path Forward

High Temperature Gas Reactor (HTGR) technology can play an important role in the United States’ energy future by extending the use of nuclear energy for non-electricity energy production missions as well as continuing to provide a considerable base load electric power generation capability. Extending nuclear energy into the industrial and transportation sectors through the co-production of process heat and electricity provides safe and reliable energy for these sectors in an environmentally responsible manner. The safety case for the modular HTGR provides a substantial improvement in nuclear plant safety for the protection of the public and the environment, and supports collocation of the HTGR with major industrial facilities. The NGNP Project at the Idaho National Laboratory has been working toward an objective of commercializing the HTGR technology under DOE direction since 2006. The Project is undergoing a quantum shift in direction and scope as a result of recent DOE decisions. This paper summarizes where the Project has been, where it is at the time of this writing and what is needed in future activities to commercialize HTGR technology.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗