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DOE OSTI2022

Maximum likelihood estimation of difference scaling functions for suprathreshold judgments

Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) has been used to produce perceptual scales from binary judgments of triads and quadruples. This method relies on Thurstone’s theory of a stochastic perceptual process where the perceived difference of two stimuli is the difference in their perceived strengths. It is possible that the perception of a suprathreshold difference is overestimated when adding smaller differences, a phenomenon referred to as diminishing returns. The current approach to construct a perceptual scale using MLE does not account for this phenomenon. We present a way to model the perception of differences using MLE and Thurstone’s theory, adapted to allow the possibility of diminishing returns. This method is validated using Monte Carlo simulated responses to experimental triads and can correctly model diminishing returns, the absence of diminishing returns, and the opposite of diminishing returns both in the cases when a perceptual scale is known and when the true perceived strengths of the stimuli are unknown. Additionally, this method was applied to empirical data sets to determine its feasibility in investigations of perception. Ultimately, it was found that this analysis allows for more accurate modeling of suprathreshold difference judgments, a more complete understanding of the perceptual processes underlying comparisons, and the evaluation of Thurstone’s theory of difference judgments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Incentive-Based Control and Coordination of Distributed Energy Resources. Final Report

The rapid growth of low-inertia renewable energy resources represents an immense opportunity for the U.S. to minimize its carbon footprint, while presenting a challenge for system operators as traditional “spinning” generation resources are displaced. This transformation requires solutions to robustly and cost-effectively manage dynamic changes on the grid while ensuring quality of service. There is growing recognition that distributed energy resources (DERs – loads, distributed generation, storage, electric vehicles, etc.) represent a great potential to perform this function. This report details a scalable hierarchical control strategy for coordinating thousands of heterogeneous DERs in order to provide three ancillary gird services: 1) frequency response, a rapid (within 2 seconds) service used to maintain the grid at 60 Hz; 2) regulation response, a larger response used to balance on-going differences in supply and demand on the grid; and, 3) ramping reserve, used to bring on capacity to replace lost generation. The developed control architecture consists of 1) a Distribution Reliability Coordinator (DRC), 2) aggregator controllers, and finally, 3) DER controllers. The DRC coordinates all the flexible loads and distributed energy resources on the distribution system and bids the aggregate flexibility into the wholesale market. The DRC also performs resource allocation (deciding how the flexible devices on the distribution system will be dispatched) to meet the requirements for each of the three ancillary services. The aggregators control a collection of devices that are geographically co-located and provide a platform to aggregate their flexibility and mitigate uncertainty associated with a single flexible load by managing a large aggregation of similar loads (so that any stochastic effects average out). Finally, DER controllers (for example, thermostats for air conditioners, chargers for electric vehicles) adjust the power consumption of individual devices to ensure accurate and reliable delivery of the requested grid services. Evaluation and validation of this approach was conducted with a mixture of simulation and hardware testing for a range of DERs in residential (air conditioners and water heaters), commercial HVAC (ventilation fans and central chiller plants), and micro-grids (battery energy storage, solar PV etc.). This culminated in DER hardware and simulation models operating in conjunction with grid simulations as part of a large scale federated test-bed demonstration. Simulations of over 10,000 controllable residential devices (a combination of air conditioners, water heaters, batteries, and electric vehicles) demonstrated that this advanced control approach could simultaneously meet all three grid services. Furthermore, hardware-in-the-loop testing was performed with operational micro-grid and commercial building HVAC equipment. The micro-grid equipment (representing PV, battery storage, and back-up generators) demonstrated the ability to meet all frequency response requirements (except ramping time). The commercial building HVAC ventilation equipment successfully provided the regulating response service. An Industry Advisory Board (IAB) was formed and engaged throughout the project to get feed-back on project risks and potential commercialization barriers. Their input was invaluable in identify key risks stemming from regulatory and market access challenges, financial risks from under-performance, and competitive threats from utility-scale solutions such as integrated storage. A phased commercialization plan was developed that addresses continued risk reduction (value proposition refinement and performance uncertainty assessments), piloting through field demonstrations with key stakeholders, and finally, deployment as an emerging standard for DER control.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1984

A stochastic model for photon noise induced by charged particles in multiplier phototubes of the space telescope fine guidance sensors

The Space Telescope (ST) is subjected to charged particle strikes in its space environment. ST's onboard fine guidance sensors utilize multiplier phototubes (PMT) for attitude determination. These tubes, when subjected to charged particle strikes, generate spurious photons in the form of Cerenkov radiation and fluorescence which give rise to unwanted disturbances in the pointing of the telescope. A stochastic model for the number of these spurious photons which strike the photocathode of the multiplier phototube which in turn produce the unwanted photon noise are presented. The model is applicable to both galactic cosmic rays and charged particles trapped in the Earth's radiation belts. The model which was programmed allows for easy adaption to a wide range of particles and different parameters for the phototube of the multiplier. The probability density functions for photons noise caused by protons, alpha particles, and carbon nuclei were using thousands of simulated strikes. These distributions are used as part of an overall ST dynamics simulation. The sensitivity of the density function to changes in the window parameters was also investigated.

Howell, L. W.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Stochastic model for photon noise induced by charged particles in multiplier phototubes of the Hubble Space Telescope fine guidance sensors

The Space Telescope (ST) is subjected to charged particle strikes in its space environment. ST's onboard fine guidance sensors utilize multiplier phototubes (PMT) for attitude determination. These tubes, when subjected to charged particle strikes, generate spurious photons in the form of Cerenkov radiation and fluorescence which give rise to unwanted disturbances in the pointing of the telescope. A stochastic model for the number of these spurious photons which strike the photocathodes of the multiplier phototube which in turn produce the unwanted photon noise are presented. The model is applicable to both galactic cosmic rays and charged particles trapped in the earth's radiation belts. The model which was programmed allows for easy adaption to a wide range of particles and different parameters for the phototube of the multiplier. The probability density functions for photons noise caused by protons, alpha particles, and carbon nuclei were using thousands of simulated strikes. These distributions are used as part of an overall ST dynamics simulation. The sensitivity of the density function to changes in the window parameters was also investigated.

Howell, L. W.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Estimation of subpixel vegetation cover using red-infrared scattergrams

The bulk properties of discontinuous vegetation canopies are estimated at subpixel scales by applying the method of moments to a linear stochastic geometric model of canopy-soil reflectance and one set of multispectral observations without ground truth. The procedure involves the formulation of conditional moments for subsets of pixels that possess similar properties and can be identified through their common orientation in red-infrared scattergrams. The analysis is facilitated by assuming geometric similarity among the canopy elements and by formulating a sampling scale ratio in terms of the bulk geometric scales of the canopy and the pixel. Three versions of the method are demonstrated using two simulated scenes and an actual forested watershed for which aerial radiometric data and corresponding ground truth were obtained.

Jasinski, Michael F.↗

NASA NTRS2016

The NANOGrav Nine-Year Data Set: Limits on the Isotropic Stochastic Gravitational Wave Background

We compute upper limits on the nanohertz-frequency isotropic stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB) using the 9 year data set from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) collaboration. Well-tested Bayesian techniques are used to set upper limits on the dimensionless strain amplitude (at a frequency of 1 yr(exp -1) for a GWB from supermassive black hole binaries of A(sub gw) less than 1.5 x 10(exp -15). We also parameterize the GWB spectrum with a broken power-law model by placing priors on the strain amplitude derived from simulations of Sesana and McWilliams et al. Using Bayesian model selection we find that the data favor a broken power law to a pure power law with odds ratios of 2.2 and 22 to one for the Sesana and McWilliams prior models, respectively. Using the broken power-law analysis we construct posterior distributions on environmental factors that drive the binary to the GW-driven regime including the stellar mass density for stellar-scattering, mass accretion rate for circumbinary disk interaction, and orbital eccentricity for eccentric binaries, marking the first time that the shape of the GWB spectrum has been used to make astrophysical inferences. Returning to a power-law model, we place stringent limits on the energy density of relic GWs, OMEGA(sub gw) (f) h squared less than 4.2 x 10(exp -10). Our limit on the cosmic string GWB, OMEGA(sub gw) (f) h squared less than 2.2 x 10(exp -10), translates to a conservative limit on the cosmic string tension with G mu less than 3.3 x 10(exp -8), a factor of four better than the joint Planck and high-l‚ cosmic microwave background data from other experiments.

Arzoumanian, Z.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Analyzing the Efficacy of Flexible Execution, Replanning, and Plan Optimization for a Planetary Lander

Plan execution in unknown environments poses a number of challenges: uncertainty in domain modeling, stochasticity at execution time, and the presence of exogenous events. These challenges motivate an integrated approach to planning and execution that is able to respond intelligently to variation. We examine this problem in the context of the Europa Lander mission concept, and evaluate a planning and execution framework that responds to feedback and task failure using two techniques: flexible execution and replanning with plan optimization. We develop a theoretical framework to estimate gains from these techniques, and we compare these predictions to empirical results generated in simulation. These results indicate that an integrated approach to planning and execution leveraging flexible execution, replanning, and utility maximization shows significant promise for future tightly-constrained space missions that must address significant uncertainty.

Chien, Steve↗

DOE OSTI2012

RAVEN as Control Logic and Probabilistic Risk Assessment Driver for RELAP-7

The Next Generation of System Analysis Code (NGSAC) [1] aims to model and simulate the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) thermo-hydraulic behavior with high level of accuracy. In this respect, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is developing a NGSAC (known as RELAP-7) which will allow to model NPP responses for a set of accident scenarios (e.g., loss of off-site power).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ensemble cure kinetics network (ECK-Net): A method to derive cure kinetics of thermosetting resin

This paper introduces an Ensemble Cure Kinetics Network (ECK-Net), a neural network (NN)–based framework for modeling the cure kinetics of thermosetting resins within a phenomenological context. ECK-Net replaces traditional analytic models, which require extensive chemical insight and multiple isothermal/non-isothermal experiments, with a data-driven surrogate that maps nonlinear relationships between temperature, degree of cure, and reaction rate from differential scanning calorimetry data. The proposed approach predicts input-dependent kinetic coefficients of a generalized nth-order reaction equation rather than reaction rates directly, enabling a single unified model to represent various epoxy systems without relying on iso-conversional analysis or predefined functional forms. To ensure robustness, multiple independently trained networks under different random initializations are blended through an ensemble strategy, effectively mitigating the stochastic variability inherent to neural networks. The framework is validated using experimental datasets from multiple resin systems, including aerospace-grade materials (Toray 3900-2, Cycom 5320-1, and Hexcel 8552) and a windmill-grade resin (RIMR 035c). The model accurately reproduces the temporal evolution of the degree of cure under manufacturers’ recommended cure cycles across all tested resins systems, yielding Pearson’s correlation coefficients of 0.992, 0.994, 0.993, 0.997, respectively. To demonstrate process-level applicability, the trained network was implemented within the Abaqus environment to simulate out-of-autoclave (OOA) curing process of the CFRP panel composed of Toray T830H-6K/3900-2D prepreg. The simulation results showed excellent agreement with experimental temperature response (maximum peak temperature, simulation: 189.6 °C, experiment: 188.5 °C) and the final degree of cure (simulation: 0.948, experiment: 0.960 ± 0.013), confirming ECK-Net’s capability as a reliable alternative to conventional cure kinetics modeling methods.

Composite curing↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimisation of the Kaplan hydropower system via PID 2 and digital twin

Here, this paper proposes a proportional–integral-double–derivative (PID 2 ) optimisation method for the Kaplan hydropower system by building a digital twin. The study first uses one multilayer perceptron (MLP) to model the hydroturbine dynamic and then adopts three connected MLPs to model the generator dynamic, both in an open-loop fashion. Inspired by stochastic distribution control (SDC) theory, we regard the training of the turbine's neural network model as a process control problem, and we propose minimising entropy loss to update the network parameters. The next step is to build the digital twin by connecting the neural network models with a PID 2 controller and a lead-lag exciter and run the whole model in a closed-loop fashion. After that, a binary search approach is applied to optimise the PID 2 parameters based on the obtained digital twin model. The simulation results show that the proposed method can reduce the mean square tracking error by more than 90%. Furthermore, the method is extended to jointly optimise the PID 2 controller and excitation system gains through multiobjective optimisation, leveraging Pareto frontier analysis to balance active power and voltage tracking performance. Simulation results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method, achieving a 83.46% reduction in relative mean square error of active power, a 47.13% reduction in terminal voltage tracking error, and an 82.78% improvement in the overall scalarized objective.

Hydropower system↗

DOE OSTI2014

Stochastic Particle Real Time Analyzer (SPARTA) Validation and Verification Suite

This report presents the test cases used to verify, validate and demonstrate the features and capabilities of the first release of the 3D Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) code SPARTA (Stochastic Real Time Particle Analyzer). The test cases included in this report exercise the most critical capabilities of the code like the accurate representation of physical phenomena (molecular advection and collisions, energy conservation, etc.) and implementation of numerical methods (grid adaptation, load balancing, etc.). Several test cases of simple flow examples are shown to demonstrate that the code can reproduce phenomena predicted by analytical solutions and theory. A number of additional test cases are presented to illustrate the ability of SPARTA to model flow around complicated shapes. In these cases, the results are compared to other well-established codes or theoretical predictions. This compilation of test cases is not exhaustive, and it is anticipated that more cases will be added in the future.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2014

Stochastic Particle Real Time Analyzer (SPARTA) Validation and Verification Suite

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Studying the effect of phenyl group content on the physical properties of un-crosslinked PDMS (Progress Summary)

Over the last couple of years, the emphasis on our A&L efforts has been on developing a thermal-age-aware constitutive model for foam cushions. From our studies so far, it appears that an $N = 2$ Ogden hyperfoam model within the framework of a two-network Tobolsky scheme is appropriate to describe the age-aware stress-strain response of both stochastic and additively manufactured (AM) foams. The models have so far been fitted only to a limited number of silicone-based materials systems, i.e., M97 and M9763 stochastic foams and AM foams made of SE1700 rubber. As we explore new and different rubber formulations for improved structural as well as A&L properties, we find it important to develop a deeper understanding of the effect of functional groups on the physical, mechanical, and flow properties of the constituent elastomer. To this end, in Q2 FY19, we have begun a project on multiscale modeling of polymers that realistically incorporates from bond-level dynamics to terminal dynamics of whole chains (e.g., tube dynamics). In such mesoscale simulations the polymer tube dynamics is modeled through coarse-graining of monomers to mesoscale “beads”, with the bead-bead potential being systematically fitted to accurate atomic-level forcefields. The aim of this collaboration is to develop a fully physical constitutive model that predicts the mechanical response of polymers of our interest based on structure and modeled dynamics alone.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Challenges and Potential of Waveform Modeling for Crustal Scale Predictions

Waveform modeling is crucial to improving our understanding of observed seismograms. Forward simulation of wavefields provides quantitative methods of testing interactions between complicated source functions and the propagation medium. Here, we discuss three experiments designed to improve under standing of high frequency seismic wave propagation. First, we compare observed and predicted travel times of crustal phases for a set of real observed earthquakes with calculations and synthetic seismograms. Second, we estimate the frequency content of a series of nearly co-located earthquakes of varying magnitude for which we have a relatively well- known 1D velocity model. Third, we apply stochastic perturbations on top of a 3D tomographic model and qualitatively assess how those variations map to differences in the seismograms. While different in scope and aim, these three vignettes illustrate the current state of crustal scale waveform modeling and the potential for future studies to better constrain the structure of the crust.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

A stochastic model for kinesin bidirectional stepping

In this paper, a hand-over-hand stochastic model for the dynamics of the conventional kinesin is constructed. In the model, both forward and backward motions are taken into consideration. First passage time distributions, average velocities, dwell times, and forward/backward step ratios are investigated based on the model. A good agreement between the results of the model and experimental data is achieved under a variety of external loads.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Logarithmic Bayesian Approach to Quantum Error Detection

We consider the problem of continuous quantum error correction from a Bayesian perspective, proposing a pair of digital filters using logarithmic probabilities that are able to achieve near-optimal performance on a three-qubit bit-flip code, while still being reasonable to implement on low-latency hardware. These practical filters are approximations of an optimal filter that we derive explicitly for finite time steps, in contrast with previous work that has relied on stochastic differential equations such as the Wonham filter. By utilizing logarithmic probabilities, we are able to eliminate the need for explicit normalization and can reduce the Gaussian noise distribution to a simple quadratic expression. The state transitions induced by the bit-flip errors are modeled using a Markov chain, which for log-probabilities must be evaluated using a LogSumExp function. We develop the two versions of our filter by constraining this LogSumExp to have either one or two inputs, which favors either simplicity or accuracy, respectively. Using simulated data, we demonstrate that the single-term and two-term filters are able to significantly outperform both a double threshold scheme and a linearized version of the Wonham filter in tests of error detection under a wide variety of error rates and time steps.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1984

Reliability and maintainability assessment factors for reliable fault-tolerant systems

A long term goal of the NASA Langley Research Center is the development of a reliability assessment methodology of sufficient power to enable the credible comparison of the stochastic attributes of one ultrareliable system design against others. This methodology, developed over a 10 year period, is a combined analytic and simulative technique. An analytic component is the Computer Aided Reliability Estimation capability, third generation, or simply CARE III. A simulative component is the Gate Logic Software Simulator capability, or GLOSS. The numerous factors that potentially have a degrading effect on system reliability and the ways in which these factors that are peculiar to highly reliable fault tolerant systems are accounted for in credible reliability assessments. Also presented are the modeling difficulties that result from their inclusion and the ways in which CARE III and GLOSS mitigate the intractability of the heretofore unworkable mathematics.

Bavuso, S. J.↗