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DOE OSTI2021

Staged OMB for Modular Gasifier/Burner

The goal of this final project report is to comprehensively summarize the work conducted on project DE-FE0031506. In accordance with the Statement of Project Objectives (SOPO), the University of Kentucky Center for Applied Energy Research (UK CAER) (Recipient) has developed a staged opposed multi-burner (OMB) gasifier, scaled down from a commercial gasification technology to utilize coal slurry as feed for the high-temperature gasification. The project involved the design, fabrication, commissioning, parametric testing, and performance validation of the entrained gasifier with multiple burners to narrow the major near-term technical gaps that impede the application of small-size gasification by modularizing the system. Project results verified the UK CAER approach to address the major technical challenges on the gasification modularization for a distributed application at a small scale of 1-5 MWe, while maintaining advantages in cost and flexibility, which include: 1) a cost-effective burner configuration to provide high flexibility in both load and fuel feed; 2) the modularized staged-OMB to provide better gasification performance such as a desired temperature profile, better fuel conversion, better gasification efficiency, and long lifetimes of the refractory wall and burners; and 3) load control simply through changing the number of burners firing. UK CAER’s staged gasifier configuration, fuel blend performance, and economic evaluation shows promise, as summarized in this report, as an effective means for improved gasification efficiency with reduced operation cost and process complexity.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

NASA NTRS2012

Constraints on the Profiles of Total Water PDF in AGCMs from AIRS and a High-Resolution Model

Atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) cloud parameterizations generally include an assumption about the subgrid-scale probability distribution function (PDF) of total water and its vertical profile. In the present study, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) monthly-mean cloud amount and relative humidity fields are used to compute a proxy for the second moment of an AGCM total water PDF called the RH01 diagnostic, which is the AIRS mean relative humidity for cloud fractions of 0.1 or less. The dependence of the second moment on horizontal grid resolution is analyzed using results from a high-resolution global model simulation.The AIRS-derived RH01 diagnostic is generally larger near the surface than aloft, indicating a narrower PDF near the surface, and varies with the type of underlying surface. High-resolution model results show that the vertical structure of profiles of the AGCM PDF second moment is unchanged as the grid resolution changes from 200 to 100 to 50 km, and that the second-moment profiles shift toward higher values with decreasing grid spacing.Several Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5), AGCM simulations were performed with several choices for the profile of the PDF second moment. The resulting cloud and relative humidity fields were shown to be quite sensitive to the prescribed profile, and the use of a profile based on the AIRS-derived proxy results in improvements relative to observational estimates. The AIRS-guided total water PDF profiles, including their dependence on underlying surface type and on horizontal resolution, have been implemented in the version of the GEOS-5 AGCM used for publicly released simulations.

Molod, Andrea↗

DOE OSTI2017

Constructing probabilistic scenarios for wide-area solar power generation

Optimizing thermal generation commitments and dispatch in the presence of high penetrations of renewable resources such as solar energy requires a characterization of their stochastic properties. In this study, we describe novel methods designed to create day-ahead, wide-area probabilistic solar power scenarios based only on historical forecasts and associated observations of solar power production. Each scenario represents a possible trajectory for solar power in next-day operations with an associated probability computed by algorithms that use historical forecast errors. Scenarios are created by segmentation of historic data, fitting non-parametric error distributions using epi-splines, and then computing specific quantiles from these distributions. Additionally, we address the challenge of establishing an upper bound on solar power output. Our specific application driver is for use in stochastic variants of core power systems operations optimization problems, e.g., unit commitment and economic dispatch. These problems require as input a range of possible future realizations of renewables production. However, the utility of such probabilistic scenarios extends to other contexts, e.g., operator and trader situational awareness. Finally, we compare the performance of our approach to a recently proposed method based on quantile regression, and demonstrate that our method performs comparably to this approach in terms of two widely used methods for assessing the quality of probabilistic scenarios: the Energy score and the Variogram score.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-335: Dosimetric Investigation of An Advanced Rotating Gamma Ray System for Imaged Guided Radiation Therapy

Purpose: Co-60 beams have unique dosimetric properties for cranial treatments and thoracic cancers. The conventional concern about the high surface dose is overcome by modern system designs with rotational treatment techniques. This work investigates a novel rotational Gamma ray system for image-guided, external beam radiotherapy. Methods: The CybeRT system (Cyber Medical Corp., China) consists of a ring gantry with either one or two treatment heads containing a Gamma source and a multileaf collimator (MLC). The MLC has 60 paired leaves, and the maximum field size is either 40cmx40cm (40 pairs of 0.5cm central leaves, 20 pairs of 1cm outer leaves), or 22cmx40cm (32 pairs of 0.25cm central leaves, 28 pairs of 0.5cm outer leaves). The treatment head(s) can swing 35° superiorly and 8° inferiorly, allowing a total of 43° non-coplanar beam incident. The treatment couch provides 6-degrees-of-freedom motion compensation and the kV cone-beam CT system has a spatial resolution of 0.4mm. Monte Carlo simulations were used to compute dose distributions and compare with measurements. A retrospective study of 98 previously treated patients was performed to compare CybeRT with existing RT systems. Results: Monte Carlo results confirmed the CybeRT design parameters including output factors and 3D dose distributions. Its beam penumbra/dose gradient was similar to or better than that of 6MV photon beams and its isocenter accuracy is 0.3mm. Co-60 beams produce lower-energy secondary electrons that exhibit better dose properties in low-density lung tissues. Because of their rapid depth dose falloff, Co-60 beams are favorable for peripheral lung tumors with half-arc arrangements to spare the opposite lung and critical structures. Superior dose distributions were obtained for head and neck, breast, spine and lung tumors. Conclusion: Because of its accurate dose delivery and unique dosimetric properties of C-60 sources, CybeRT is ideally suited for advanced SBRT as well as conventional RT. This work was partially supported by Cyber Medical Corp.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

A cloud computing approach to massively-parallel distributed stochastic optimization with application to geomechanical reservoir characterization

Many search strategies used to optimize parameters during hydrologic model calibration are inherently limited in that simulations must be performed sequentially in order for the algorithm to converge. As a result, the overall time required to reach a solution increases linearly with the number of steps necessary. In contrast, sampling strategies that attempt to approximate the posterior distribution of the parameters do not require the model simulations to be run in sequence and therefore invite the use of a massively parallel approach across heterogeneous computing environments. We apply a cloud computing methodology to this problem where a head node running on Amazon Web Services continuously produces candidate models that are distributed to arbitrary compute environments to run the simulation, in our case Clemson’s Palmetto cluster computer. Thus the time required to obtain a sufficient number of samples to produce an adequate approximation of the posterior distribution of the parameters is limited by the number of available compute sites. Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior space would be duplicative and inefficient, thus we combine Latin hypercube methods with genetic algorithms to ensure that no large regions of the parameter space are left unexplored, and that high probability regions are investigated thoroughly. We independently assess the fit to different types of data sets without the need to construct a single objective function. Sets of Pareto optimal models are particularly valuable when the quality and information content of data is poorly known or conceptual model errors exist in our simulation. We illustrate our approach for a problem where in situ strain data are used to calibrate the parameters of an oil reservoir in the Avant oil field in Oklahoma. We use well injection and shut-in to stress a deep (500m) confined formation, and observe the geomechanical response using borehole strainmeters installed in the shallow subsurface (30m). These data were then used to calibrate the poroelastic properties of the reservoir and caprock along with the geometry of an elliptic channel associated with the formation. Using our approach we are able to identify issues with model error as well as substantial tradeoffs that occur within the parameters.

inversion, stochastic, geomechanics, poroelastic, ↗

DOE OSTI2018

MORPHODYNAMIC MODELING OF FLOW AND SEDIMENT TRANSPORT OVER LOW-HEAD, RUN-OF-RIVER DAMS

Low-head or Run-of-River (RoR) dams exist on all types of rivers throughout the United States, yet the exact mechanisms of how sediment moves around the structures have not been well researched. Due to the increasing use of RoR dams in small hydroelectric projects, there is a need to better understand the controlling factors of how sediment passes over these dams. A one-dimensional morphodynamic model was developed to investigate the effects of RoR dams on channel morphology over long time scales. The model solves the gradually varied flow equations to compute the flow field in the vicinity of the dam, computes grain-size-specific sediment transport rates, and uses sediment mass conservation and vertical storage bookkeeping to calculate the evolution of bed elevation, the bed surface grain-size distribution, and the vertical pattern of stratigraphy. The model’s hydraulic calculations were calibrated using data collected from a series of flume experiments performed with a model RoR dam to better capture the non-hydrostatic flow over a dam. Numerical experiments designed to investigate how the grain-size distribution of the sediment supply rate, flow rate (steady and unsteady), and dam height act as controls on sediment passage over RoR dams were conducted using parameters reported in the literature for a RoR dam in northern Delaware.These one-dimensional simulations were complemented with a few simulations using, a two-dimensional morphodynamic model, Nays2DH. The 1D simulation results show that the stored sediment upstream of RoR dams does depend on the sediment supply, dam height, grain-size and flow discharge. Once sedimentation in the reservoir has reached equilibrium, high flow events will reduce or scour the sediment while lower flows will typically increase the amount of sediment behind the dam. Finally, a dam that stores more sediment will have greater downstream effects in terms of changes to grain-sizes and bed elevation due to the increased time it ii takes to pass sediment over the dam and reach an equilibrium condition on the upstream side of the dam.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Leak Modeling for Development of Smart Distributed Monitoring Under Unintended Releases

Hydrogen is a versatile and clean energy carrier that can be produced from various renewable sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower. Hydrogen has the potential to play a crucial role in decarbonizing industrial processes that are currently reliant on fossil fuels and provide long-duration and/or seasonal energy storage to enable electricity decarbonization. Hydrogen can also be used as a fuel for fuel cell vehicles, providing a zero-emission alternative to traditional internal combustion engines. DOE launched the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot (Hydrogen Shot) in June 2021 to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). While promising, Hydrogen is highly-flammable, and in the presence of oxygen, it can form explosive mixtures. . Therefore, understanding leak scenarios is essential to evaluate and mitigate the safety risks associated with potential hydrogen leaks. An increased understanding of leak behavior, and having tools to model leaks, can help assess how hydrogen would disperse in different environments, influencing emergency response plans and safety measures, and identify potential issues with materials and design systems that can withstand the challenges posed by hydrogen. Recently, researchers have attempted to study hydrogen leaks for development of risk management strategies. However, the focus has been on closed or semi-closed spaces like storage rooms, vehicles, garages, and fueling stations - all promising locations for future hydrogen infrastructure. In this presentation, the modeling environment extends the span of research further by modeling hydrogen leak in an outdoor, open space. We will present the key challenges with modeling hydrogen leaks in an uncontrollable environment, how they were handled, and how modeling results informed sensor selection and placement. A Hydrogen research facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was used as a case study to model hydrogen leaks. In the future, Hydrogen wide area detection methodologies will be developed and tested at this site to monitor for unintended and operational hydrogen releases. The data generated from modeling will be used to develop a predictive model to detect hydrogen leak location based on concentration measured by sensors in this open space. Furthermore, the facility was also chosen because controlled hydrogen releases can be performed. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based modeling approach was taken to model hydrogen leak. The full-scale hydrogen facility was modeled with a large ambient domain. The electrolyzer at the facility can produce a controlled release rate of 27 kg-H2/hr. Site-specific atmospheric and weather condition data such as wind direction, wind speed at various altitudes, and temperature were used as inputs to the model. To capture the variability of weather conditions, a subset of the weather conditions experienced during daytime hours without precipitation over the course of three months was generated; using established data clustering techniques, a total of 100 condition sets were chosen. The results show statistical distributions and ranges of hydrogen concentrations at locations throughout the domain. These distributions are compared to experimental data from a constant mass flow, controlled hydrogen release at the facility. The stochastic wind conditions of the release make direct validation difficult, therefore, statistical comparison approaches were used. Wind conditions are found to significantly impact the release behavior, including direction and concentration. Sensor selection and placement is proposed for the facility and is now based on release behavior predicted for the facility given its weather patterns; this is much more informed than without the modeling results. The methodology and analysis procedure can be translated to other facilities using modified geometries and site-specific weather conditions. Hydrogen holds great promise as a renewable energy fuel, but ensuring safety in its production, storage, and use is paramount. Studying potential leak scenarios in an open space will help develop sensors to detect hydrogen on a large spectrum of concentration and eventually build a smart distributed monitoring system.

CFD↗

DOE OSTI2015

Evaluation of tropical channel refinement using MPAS‐A aquaplanet simulations

Abstract Climate models with variable‐resolution grids offer a computationally less expensive way to provide more detailed information and increased accuracy by resolving processes that cannot be adequately represented by a coarser grid. This study uses the Model for Prediction Across Scales‐Atmosphere (MPAS‐A), consisting of a nonhydrostatic dynamical core and a subset of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model physics, to investigate the potential benefits of using tropical channel refinement. The simulations are performed with an idealized aquaplanet configuration using 30 and 240 km global grid spacing, and two variable‐resolution grids spanning the same grid spacing range; one with a narrow (20°S–20°N) and one with a wide (30°S–30°N) tropical channel refinement. Increasing resolution in the tropics impacts both the tropical and extratropical circulation. Compared to the 30 km global grid, both refined channel simulations exhibit slightly stronger updrafts inside the Hadley cell resulting in more resolved precipitation. Using a wider tropical refinement leads to a closer correspondence with the global high‐resolution grid. While different grid spacings produce similar cloud size distributions that are consistent with observations, the dependence of precipitation rate on cloud size varies among simulations. The refined channel simulations show improved tropical and extratropical precipitation relative to the global coarse simulation. All simulations show a single precipitation peak centered on the equator. Although the results show that tropical refinement is an effective method for avoiding artifacts due to grid resolution sensitivities seen in earlier studies that only refined a portion of the tropics, some biases remain well inside of the refinement region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exascale granular microstructure reconstruction in 3D volumes of arbitrary geometries with generative learning

Reconstructing 3D granular microstructures within volumes of arbitrary geometries from limited 2D image data is crucial for predicting the material properties, as well as performances of structural components accounting for material microstructural effects. We present a novel generative learning framework that enables exascale reconstruction of granular microstructures within complex 3D geometric volumes. Building upon existing transfer learning techniques using pre-trained convolutional neural networks (CNN), we introduce several key innovations to overcome the difficulties inherent in arbitrary geometries. Our framework incorporates periodic boundary conditions using circular padding techniques, ensuring continuity and representativeness of the reconstructed microstructures. We also introduce a novel seamless transition reconstruction (STR) method that creates statistically equivalent transition zones to integrate multiple pre-existing 3D microstructure volumes. Based on STR, we propose a cost-effective strategy for reconstructing microstructures within complex geometric volumes, minimizing computational waste. Validation through numerical experiments using kinetic Monte Carlo simulations demonstrates accurate reproduction of grain statistics, including grain size distributions and morphology. A case study involving the reconstruction of a 4-blade propeller microstructure illustrates the method’s capability to efficiently handle complex geometries. In conclusion, the proposed framework significantly reduces computational demands while maintaining high reconstruction quality, paving the way for scalable microstructure reconstruction in materials design and analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Characterization and Optimization of the Fitting of Quantum Correlation Functions

This case study presents a characterization and optimization of an application code for extracting parton distribution functions from high energy electron-proton scattering data. Profiling this application code reveals that the phase-space density computation accounts for 93% of the overall execution time for a single iteration on a single core. When executing multiple iterations in parallel on a multicore system, the application spends 78% of its overall execution time idling due to load imbalance. We address these issues by first transforming the application code from Python to C++ and then tackling the application load imbalance via a hybrid scheduling strategy that combines dynamic and static scheduling. These techniques result in a 62% reduction in CPU idle time and a 2.46x speedup in overall execution time per node. In addition, the typically enabled power-management mechanisms in supercomputers (e.g., AMD Turbo Core, Intel Turbo Boost, and RAPL) can significantly impact intra-node scalability when more than 50% of the CPU cores are used. This finding underscores the importance of understanding system interactions with power management, as they can adversely impact application performance, and highlights the necessity of intra-node scaling tests to identify performance degradation that inter-node scaling tests might otherwise overlook.

Chuang, Pi-Yueh [Virginia Tech,Dept. of Computer S↗

DOE OSTI2025

EUREICA: Efficient UltRa Endpoint IoT-enabled Coordinated Architecture

The electricity grid has evolved from a physical system to a cyber-physical system with digital devices that perform measurement, control, communication, computation, and actuation. The increased penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) that include renewable generation, flexible loads, and storage provides extraordinary opportunities for improvements in efficiency and sustainability. However, they can introduce new vulnerabilities in the form of cyberattacks, which can cause significant challenges in ensuring grid resilience. The purpose of this project was to develop a framework ((Efficient, Ultra-REsilient, IoT-Coordinated Assets, or EUREICA)for achieving grid resilience through suitably coordinated assets including a network of Internet of Things (IoT) devices, and a local electricity market (LEM) to identify trustable assets and carry out this coordination. Situational Awareness (SA) of locally available DERs with the ability to inject power or reduce consumption is enabled by the market, together with a monitoring procedure for their trustability and commitment. Experiments conducted during this project demonstrated that, with this SA, a variety of cyberattacks can be mitigated using local trustable resources without stressing the bulk grid. The demonstrations were carried out using a variety of high-fidelity co-simulation platforms, real-time hardware-in-the-loop validation, and a utility-friendly simulator.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1996

Balancing Contention and Synchronization on the Intel Paragon

The Intel Paragon is a mesh-connected distributed memory parallel computer. It uses an oblivious and deterministic message routing algorithm: this permits us to develop highly optimized schedules for frequently needed communication patterns. The complete exchange is one such pattern. Several approaches are available for carrying it out on the mesh. We study an algorithm developed by Scott. This algorithm assumes that a communication link can carry one message at a time and that a node can only transmit one message at a time. It requires global synchronization to enforce a schedule of transmissions. Unfortunately global synchronization has substantial overhead on the Paragon. At the same time the powerful interconnection mechanism of this machine permits 2 or 3 messages to share a communication link with minor overhead. It can also overlap multiple message transmission from the same node to some extent. We develop a generalization of Scott's algorithm that executes complete exchange with a prescribed contention. Schedules that incur greater contention require fewer synchronization steps. This permits us to tradeoff contention against synchronization overhead. We describe the performance of this algorithm and compare it with Scott's original algorithm as well as with a naive algorithm that does not take interconnection structure into account. The Bounded contention algorithm is always better than Scott's algorithm and outperforms the naive algorithm for all but the smallest message sizes. The naive algorithm fails to work on meshes larger than 12 x 12. These results show that due consideration of processor interconnect and machine performance parameters is necessary to obtain peak performance from the Paragon and its successor mesh machines.

Bokhari, Shahid H.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Multiple-Beam Detection of Fast Transient Radio Sources

A method has been designed for using multiple independent stations to discriminate fast transient radio sources from local anomalies, such as antenna noise or radio frequency interference (RFI). This can improve the sensitivity of incoherent detection for geographically separated stations such as the very long baseline array (VLBA), the future square kilometer array (SKA), or any other coincident observations by multiple separated receivers. The transients are short, broadband pulses of radio energy, often just a few milliseconds long, emitted by a variety of exotic astronomical phenomena. They generally represent rare, high-energy events making them of great scientific value. For RFI-robust adaptive detection of transients, using multiple stations, a family of algorithms has been developed. The technique exploits the fact that the separated stations constitute statistically independent samples of the target. This can be used to adaptively ignore RFI events for superior sensitivity. If the antenna signals are independent and identically distributed (IID), then RFI events are simply outlier data points that can be removed through robust estimation such as a trimmed or Winsorized estimator. The alternative "trimmed" estimator is considered, which excises the strongest n signals from the list of short-beamed intensities. Because local RFI is independent at each antenna, this interference is unlikely to occur at many antennas on the same step. Trimming the strongest signals provides robustness to RFI that can theoretically outperform even the detection performance of the same number of antennas at a single site. This algorithm requires sorting the signals at each time step and dispersion measure, an operation that is computationally tractable for existing array sizes. An alternative uses the various stations to form an ensemble estimate of the conditional density function (CDF) evaluated at each time step. Both methods outperform standard detection strategies on a test sequence of VLBA data, and both are efficient enough for deployment in real-time, online transient detection applications.

Thompson, David R.↗

DOE OSTI2016

Multiscale Model for Simulating Fission-Induced Recrystallization in U-Mo Alloy

U-Mo alloy is one of the most promising fuels for the future high performance research and test reactors due to its high uranium loading density and stable irradiation behavior. However, a major concern to its qualification is the fuel swelling at high fission density due to the formation of large fission-gas bubbles. The fission-induced recrystallization further expedites the formation and growth of gas bubbles. So far, the exact mechanism of recrystallization is still unclear. One possible driving force for recrystallization is the production of point defects and interstitial loops due to irradiation. Following this, we developed a multi-scale model by integrating the rate-theory and phase-field models to study microstructural evolutions in irradiated U-Mo alloy, i.e., fission-induced gas bubble evolution and recrystallization. Density function theory (DFT) calculations are utilized to predict the defect formation energies, diffusivities of defects, the interfacial energy of gas bubble, and the elastic constants of U-Mo alloy, etc. The dislocation density evolution is predicted by the rate-theory developed by Jeff. The grain subdivision occurs once the dislocation density is above a critical value. The grain growth coupled with gas bubbles evolution is modeled using a multi-phase phase-field model. The effects of fission rate and initial grain microstructure on the recrystallization process are systematically investigated. The simulated dislocation density, sub-grain size distribution, and volume fraction of the recrystallization grains under different fission density are comparable with experimental data. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A method for characterization of multiple dynamic constitutive parameters of FRCs

We propose a method to measure multiple dynamic material constitutive parameters of unidirectional fiber reinforced composites (FRCs) in a single experiment. Dynamic short-beam shear (DSBS) experiments were performed on a modified Kolsky compression bar, with integration of high-speed imaging and digital image correlation (DIC). The unidirectional FRCs investigated were S-2 glass fiber reinforced matrix of TGDDM-Jeffamine® D230 with monoamine functionalized partially reacted substructures (mPRS) and commercially available SC-15. Analytical solutions of normal and shear strains of a composite beam were derived based on Timoshenko beam theory, assuming material to be transversely isotropic and have different moduli in tension and compression in each principle material orientation. Tensile and compressive moduli were inversely computed through monitoring normal strain slope when specimen was constantly loaded at a speed of ~7.3 m/s within a small deflection. Non-linear shear stress-strain behavior of the composite was described via Ramberg–Osgood equation. Finite element (FE) analysis was conducted in ABAQUS, simultaneously defining via user subroutine UMAT the transverse isotropy of material, bi-modulus constitutive model, and non-linear shear stress-strain relation. The method proposed in this work was validated by comparing strain distributions computed by FE model and DIC measurements. Comparing with traditional dynamic tensile, compressive, and shear experiments on FRCs, this method significantly simplifies the specimen preparation and design of complicated gripping fixtures for multiple experiments. Here, systematic errors resulting from variations of specimen geometry and dimension, loading direction, and instrumentation are reduced, thereby providing compatible data for numerical studies on impact behavior of composites.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

Application of predictive data analytics to model daily hydrocarbon production using petrophysical, geomechanical, fiber-optic, completions, and surface data: A case study from the Marcellus Shale, North America

Predicting gas production from stimulated unconventional reservoirs has always been a challenge to oil and gas companies because the physics of fluid flow through such reservoirs is not well understood. On the other hand, modeling gas production from shale reservoirs is a complex multi-variate problem that requires proper integration of data from multiple disciplines, such as geology, petrophysics, geomechanics, completions, and surface-based measurements, etc. Here this study demonstrates the application of data-driven machine learning algorithms, integrating geoscientific, distributed acoustic sensing (DAS), distributed temperature sensing (DTS) fiber-optic, completions, flow scanner production log, and surface data to model daily gas production from a 28-stage stimulated horizontal well drilled in the Marcellus Shale of the Appalachian basin in North America. In addition, this study aims to utilize the data from a fiber-optic monitoring system, such as DAS and DTS to evaluate the well performance. We build supervised data-driven machine learning models using Random Forest (RF), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms to understand the well performance and forecast the daily gas production. The study compares the forecasted results, tests the level of accuracy, and addresses different issues with these machine learning algorithms. A spatio-temporal database is constructed and used to perform sensitivity analyses to identify the key drivers for gas production. The results show that RF and ANN algorithms can be used to predict daily gas production with significantly high accuracy; however, RF algorithm is the best predictor in terms of highest accuracy (96%), less computational time and cost. Based on sensitivity analysis, it appears that Poisson's ratio, minimum horizontal stress, DAS, casing pressure, gamma log are the most important parameters to predict gas production.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2017

True randomness from an incoherent source

Quantum random number generators (QRNGs) harness the intrinsic randomness in measurement processes: the measurement outputs are truly random, given the input state is a superposition of the eigenstates of the measurement operators. In the case of trusted devices, true randomness could be generated from a mixed state ρ so long as the system entangled with ρ is well protected. We propose a random number generation scheme based on measuring the quadrature fluctuations of a single mode thermal state using an optical homodyne detector. By mixing the output of a broadband amplified spontaneous emission (ASE) source with a single mode local oscillator (LO) at a beam splitter and performing differential photo-detection, we can selectively detect the quadrature fluctuation of a single mode output of the ASE source, thanks to the filtering function of the LO. Experimentally, a quadrature variance about three orders of magnitude larger than the vacuum noise has been observed, suggesting this scheme can tolerate much higher detector noise in comparison with QRNGs based on measuring the vacuum noise. The high quality of this entropy source is evidenced by the small correlation coefficients of the acquired data. A Toeplitz-hashing extractor is applied to generate unbiased random bits from the Gaussian distributed raw data, achieving an efficiency of 5.12 bits per sample. Furthermore, the output of the Toeplitz extractor successfully passes all the NIST statistical tests for random numbers.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1994

Portable parallel stochastic optimization for the design of aeropropulsion components

This report presents the results of Phase 1 research to develop a methodology for performing large-scale Multi-disciplinary Stochastic Optimization (MSO) for the design of aerospace systems ranging from aeropropulsion components to complete aircraft configurations. The current research recognizes that such design optimization problems are computationally expensive, and require the use of either massively parallel or multiple-processor computers. The methodology also recognizes that many operational and performance parameters are uncertain, and that uncertainty must be considered explicitly to achieve optimum performance and cost. The objective of this Phase 1 research was to initialize the development of an MSO methodology that is portable to a wide variety of hardware platforms, while achieving efficient, large-scale parallelism when multiple processors are available. The first effort in the project was a literature review of available computer hardware, as well as review of portable, parallel programming environments. The first effort was to implement the MSO methodology for a problem using the portable parallel programming language, Parallel Virtual Machine (PVM). The third and final effort was to demonstrate the example on a variety of computers, including a distributed-memory multiprocessor, a distributed-memory network of workstations, and a single-processor workstation. Results indicate the MSO methodology can be well-applied towards large-scale aerospace design problems. Nearly perfect linear speedup was demonstrated for computation of optimization sensitivity coefficients on both a 128-node distributed-memory multiprocessor (the Intel iPSC/860) and a network of workstations (speedups of almost 19 times achieved for 20 workstations). Very high parallel efficiencies (75 percent for 31 processors and 60 percent for 50 processors) were also achieved for computation of aerodynamic influence coefficients on the Intel. Finally, the multi-level parallelization strategy that will be needed for large-scale MSO problems was demonstrated to be highly efficient. The same parallel code instructions were used on both platforms, demonstrating portability. There are many applications for which MSO can be applied, including NASA's High-Speed-Civil Transport, and advanced propulsion systems. The use of MSO will reduce design and development time and testing costs dramatically.

Sues, Robert H.↗