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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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The verification of U233-COMP-THERM-004 contributed to the LANL centralized repository that’s currently under development. Revisions made to the MCNP model were statistically significant. Magnitude of bias is relatively small in comparison to other uranium benchmark biases and thus will likely have not a significant effect on the USL.
Abstract not provided.
Abstract not provided.
This report presents the development of tools and methods for evaluating the reliability and performance of ceramic materials in high temperature solar receivers. As Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies aim for higher operating temperatures to enhance efficiency and meet industrial process heat requirements, current high temperature metallic materials face challenges in maintaining structural integrity. This report explores advanced ceramics as a promising alternative, given their superior high temperature strength and lower thermal expansion, compared to metals. To address the need for effective ceramic receiver design tools, this report integrates statistical failure models of ceramics into the existing srlife tool: an open-source software package designed to estimate the life of high temperature CSP components. These failure models account for the inherent variability and flaw distribution in ceramics, as well as the impact of subcritical crack growth under high temperature cyclic loads. The report also presents experimental data collected for a commercially available ceramic material, SiC, and details the process of estimating reliability model parameters from these data. A comparative design analysis is then performed between ceramic (SiC) and metallic (current nickel-based superalloys A740H and A282) receiver. This comparison demonstrates that SiC receivers can achieve service life exceeding 30 years under high incident heat flux conditions, compared to just a few years for metallic receivers.
This project developed and applied advanced theoretical, computational, and data-analysis methodologies to extract robust and precise cosmological constraints from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). The work focused on maximizing the scientific return of DESI through optimized survey strategy, novel higher-order clustering statistics, improved modeling of small-scale structure, and rigorous mitigation of observational systematics. Over the award period, the project made substantial contributions to DESI science planning, produced new methods for bispectrum and three-point correlation function analyses, advanced constraints on primordial non-Gaussianity, and delivered widely used software tools. The project also played a major role in training graduate students and a postdoctoral researcher who contributed directly to DESI key projects. The results have significantly enhanced the cosmological reach of DESI and provide a strong foundation for future surveys such as DESI-II and Stage-V experiments.
The purpose of this review is to highlight progress in unraveling carbon cycling dynamics across the continuum of landscapes, inland waters, coastal oceans, and the atmosphere. Earth systems are intimately interconnected, yet most biogeochemical studies focus on specific components in isolation. The movement of water drives the carbon cycle, and, as such, inland waters provide a critical intersection between terrestrial and marine biospheres. Inland, estuarine, and coastal waters are well studied in regions near centers of human population in the Northern hemisphere. However, many of the world’s large river systems and their marine receiving waters remain poorly characterized, particularly in the tropics, which contribute to a disproportionately large fraction of the transformation of terrestrial organic matter to carbon dioxide, and the Arctic, where positive feedback mechanisms are likely to amplify global climate change. There are large gaps in current coverage of environmental observations along the aquatic continuum. For example, tidally-influenced reaches of major rivers and near-shore coastal regions around river plumes are often left out of carbon budgets due to a combination of methodological constraints and poor data coverage. We suggest that closing these gaps could potentially alter global estimates of CO2 outgassing from surface waters to the atmosphere by several-fold. Finally, in order to identify and constrain/embrace uncertainties in global carbon budget estimations it is important that we further adopt statistical and modeling approaches that have become well-established in the fields of oceanography and paleoclimatology, for example.
Revealing temporal patterns of community assembly processes is important for understanding how microorganisms underlie the sustainability of agroecosystem. The ancient terraced rice paddies at Longji provide an ideal platform to study temporal dynamics of agroecosystem sustainability due to their chronosequential records of soil physicochemistry and well-archived microbial information along 630-year rice cultivation. We used statistical null models to evaluate microbial assembly processes along the soil chronosequences of Longji rice paddies through time. Stochastic and deterministic assembly processes jointly governed microbial community composition within successional eras (less than 250 years), and within-era determinism was mainly driven by soil fertility and redox conditions alone or in combination. Conversely, across successional eras (i.e., over 300 years), stochasticity linearly increased with increasing duration between eras and was eventually predominant for the whole 630 years. We suggest that the impact of stochasticity vs. determinism on assembly is timescale-dependent, and we propose that the importance of stochastic assembly of microbial community at longer timescales is due to the gradual changes in soil properties under long-term rice cultivation, which in turn contribute to the sustainability of paddy ecosystem by maintaining a diverse community of microorganisms with multi-functional traits. In total, our results indicate that knowledge on the timescales at which assembly processes govern microbial community composition is key to understanding the ecological mechanisms generating agroecosystem sustainability.
We develop a statistical analysis model of Kepler stellar flux data in the presence of planet transits, non-Gaussian noise, and stellar variability. We first develop a model for the Kepler noise probability distribution in the presence of outliers, which make the noise probability distribution non-Gaussian. We develop a signal likelihood analysis based on this probability distribution, in which we model the signal as a sum of the star variability and planetary transits. We argue that these components need to be modeled together if optimal signal is to be extracted from the data. For the stellar variability model we develop an optimal Gaussian process analysis using a Fourier-based Wiener filter approach, where the power spectrum is non-parametric and learned from the data. We develop high dimensional optimization of the objective function, where we jointly optimize all the model parameters, including thousands of star variability modes, and planet transit parameters. We apply the method to Kepler-90 data and show that it gives a better match to the stellar variability than the existing methods, and robustly handles noise outliers. As a consequence, the planet radii have a higher value than what the existing methods give, including splines and celerite.
Abstract We present an analysis of the first two XRISM/Resolve spectra of the well-known Seyfert-1.5 active galactic nucleus (AGN) in NGC 4151, obtained in 2023 December. Our work focuses on the nature of the narrow Fe K α emission line at 6.4 keV, the strongest and most common X-ray line observed in AGN. The total line is found to consist of three components. Even the narrowest component of the line is resolved with evident Fe K α ,1 (6.404 keV) and K α ,2 (6.391 keV) contributions in a 2:1 flux ratio, fully consistent with neutral gas with negligible bulk velocity. Subject to the limitations of our models, the narrowest and intermediate-width components are consistent with emission from optically thin gas, suggesting that they arise in a disk atmosphere and/or wind. Modeling the three line components in terms of Keplerian broadening, they are readily associated with (1) the inner wall of the “torus,” (2) the innermost optical “broad-line region” (or “X-ray BLR”), and (3) a region with a radius of r ≃ 100 GM / c 2 that may signal a warp in the accretion disk. Viable alternative explanations of the broadest component include a fast-wind component and/or scattering; however, we find evidence of variability in the narrow Fe K α line complex on timescales consistent with small radii. The best-fit models are statistically superior to simple Voigt functions, but when fit with Voigt profiles the time-averaged lines are consistent with a projected velocity broadening of FWHM = 1600 − 200 + 400 km s − 1 . Overall, the resolution and sensitivity of XRISM show that the narrow Fe K line in AGN is an effective probe of all key parts of the accretion flow, as it is currently understood. We discuss the implications of these findings for our understanding of AGN accretion, future studies with XRISM, and X-ray-based black hole mass measurements.
Abstract. Using archival research methods, we recovered and combined data from multiple sources to produce a unique, 140-year record of daily water temperature (Tw) in the lower Willamette River, Oregon (1881–1890, 1941–present). Additional daily weather and river flow records from the 1850s onwards are used to develop and validate a statistical regression model of Tw for 1850–2020. The model simulates the time-lagged response of Tw to air temperature and river flow and is calibrated for three distinct time periods: the late 19th, mid-20th, and early 21st centuries. Results show that Tw has trended upwards at 1.1 ∘C per century since the mid-19th century, with the largest shift in January and February (1.3 ∘C per century) and the smallest in May and June (∼ 0.8 ∘C per century). The duration that the river exceeds the ecologically important threshold of 20 ∘C has increased by about 20 d since the 1800s, to about 60 d yr−1. Moreover, cold-water days below 2 ∘C have virtually disappeared, and the river no longer freezes. Since 1900, changes are primarily correlated with increases in air temperature (Tw increase of 0.81 ± 0.25 ∘C) but also occur due to alterations in the river system such as depth increases from reservoirs (0.34 ± 0.12 ∘C). Managed release of water affects Tw seasonally, with an average reduction of up to 0.56 ∘C estimated for September. River system changes have decreased variability (σ) in daily minimum Tw by 0.44 ∘C, increased thermal memory, reduced interannual variability, and reduced the response to short-term meteorological forcing (e.g., heat waves). These changes fundamentally alter the response of Tw to climate change, posing additional stressors on fauna.
SAND2022-12599 O statMechCrack is a Python package providing an API to run calculations based on certain statistical mechanical models for cracks and crack growth. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.
The United States has a racial homeownership gap due to a legacy of historic inequality and discriminatory policies, but factors that contribute to the racial disparity in homeownership rates between White Americans and people of color have not been fully characterized. In order to alleviate this issue, policymakers need a better understanding of how risk factors affect the homeownership rates of racial and ethnic groups differently. In this study, data from several publicly available surveys, including the American Community Survey and United States Census, were leveraged in combination with statistical learning models to investigate potential factors related to homeownership rates across racial and ethnic categories, with a focus on how risk factors vary by race or ethnicity. Our models indicated that job availability for specific demographics, and specific regions of the United States were factors that affect homeownership rates in Black, Hispanic, and Asian populations in different ways. Based on the results of this study, it is recommended policymakers promote strategies to increase access to jobs for people of color (POC), such as vocational training and programs to reduce implicit bias in hiring practices. These interventions could ultimately increase homeownership rates for POC and be a step toward reducing the racial wealth gap.
Atmospheric radiation calculations emphasizing carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide absorption spectrum, spectral energy distribution, quasi-statistical band model, etc
Model for statistically isotropic homogeneous turbulence in incompressible fluid, representing turbulence as superposition of individual vortex sheets
Spectral discrimination technique for crops remote sensing, comparing statistical irradiance model with airborne multispectral scanner data
Galactic cosmic rays origin in terms of statistical mechanical model of supernova explosions
Hot water vapor curve of growth, using statistical band model with exponential line intensity distribution yielding spectral absorption coefficients
Bolted specimens representative of both upper and lower wing surface splices of a transport aircraft were designed and manufactured for static and random load tension and compression fatigue testing including ground-air-ground load reversals. The specimens were fabricated with graphite-epoxy composite material. Multiple tests were conducted at various load levels and the results were used as input to a statistical wearout model. The statically designed specimens performed very well under highly magnified fatigue loadings. Two large panels, one tension and compression, were fabricated for testing by NASA-LRC.